Vietnam market trend report (Up to October 2020)

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 Overview

This is the consolidated report summarizing the

public information as to Vietnam economy. The
report is the summary of

• Vietnam retail sales data from GSO

• Vietnam consumer price index data from GSO
• Vietnam car sales trend (VAMA)
• Vietnam motorbike sales trend (VAMM)

This report was made in November 2020

Executive summary
• Retail sales trend is up by 1% vs. last year.
• CPI trend is up by 3.71% vs. last year.
• Core inflation trend is up by 2.52% vs. last year.
• Import amount trend is down by 1% vs. last year.
• Export amount trend is up by 4% vs. last year.
• Number of newly registered company is down by 3% vs. last year.
• Unemployment ratio trend is up by 2.48% vs. last year.
• Car sales trend is down by 21% vs. last year.
• Motorbike sales down is down by 17% vs. last year.
• International visitors to Vietnam trend is down by 74% vs. last year.
Highlight (1)
Retail sales (Billion VND) CPI change (2020 vs. 2019) (%) Core inflation (2020 vs. 2019) (%)
4,057,913 4,108,491
6.43 3.25
2.94 2.95
5.4 2.71
4.87 2.54 2.45
2.31
2.16
1.97 1.88
2.93 3.17 3.39 3.18 2.98
2.4 2.47

Jan-Oct 2019 Jan-Oct 2020 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

Import amount (Billion USD) Export amount (Billion USD) Number of newly registered
company (Unit)
212,900 210,300 220,600 114,456 111,160
212,500

Jan-Oct 2019 Jan-Oct 2020 Jan-Oct 2019 Jan-Oct 2020 Jan-Oct 2019 Jan-Oct 2020
Highlight (2)
Unemployment ratio Car sales (Unit) Motorbike sales (Unit)
2.73
2.5 219,238 2,334,890
2.17 2.16 2.17 2.15 2.22
1,927,736
172,626

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020 Jan-Sep 2019 Jan-Sep 2020 Q1-Q3 2019 Q1-Q32020

Int’l visitors to Vietnam (People)

14,488,843

3,803,305

Jan-Oct 2019 Jan-Oct 2020

 Billion VND

Retail sales trend

Monthly trend
Category 2020 YTM 2019 YTM Trend 449,784 450,755
(Jan-Oct) (Jan-Oct) vs P.Y 422,285 428,782
432,366
417,968
434,502 429,885 440,127 15%
406,402 405,983
400,000 11% 11% 12% 12% 369,827
10%
4% 7%
Total 4,108,491 4,057,913 1%
5%
4% 5% 5%
303,258 2%
1%
300,000 0%
-5%
Retail 3,258,147 3,080,771 6% -5%
200,000 -10%
15,356 38,126 -60%
-15%
Travelling
100,000 -20%
-23%
407,724 483,865 -16%
-25%
Accommod
ation and 0
-30%
catering

Others 427,264 455,151 -6%

Figure Trend vs previous year

Retail sales and services experienced a rapid decline and hit the lowest point in April.
However, the situation has been better since May

Source: GSO (General Statistics Office of Vietnam)

 Billion VND

Retail sales trend

Retail sales Travelling
348,738 347,799356,543 4,228 4,149
335,083339,739 4,057
3,895 3,977 12%
317,254318,731323,756325,782
20%
320,926 321,441325,196 20%
297,391 17% 5%
300,000 12% 265,291 14% 0%
12% 4%
12% 11% 8%
11% 12% 8% 9% 10%
10%
6% 2,548
6% 2,336
-20%

200,000
0% -35% -40%
-1% -38%
1,293 1,197 1,159 1,158 -60%
100,000 -12% -63% 947
-69%
-76% -70%-71%
-10%
518
-80%
51 -86%
0 -20% 0 -99% -100%

Accommodation and catering Others

50,69251,94850,799
48,811 49,216 48,438 49,370 50,361 50,277 50,408
20%
46,098 47,468 48,433 46,351 47,303 48,250 30%
44,107 44,804
7% 6% 41,545 42,848 43,866 10% 16% 41,595 43,167
40,857 20%
10% 12% 12% 37,257
5% 33,886 -4%
0%
19% 2%
10%
11% 11%
-13% -12% -10% -9% 0% 1% -4%
-10% 0%
-12% -5% -4% -4%
-17%
-27%
-20%
-10% -10%
21,342
-30% -20%
16,574
-40% -30%

-50%
-51% -40%

-60% -50%

0
-65% -70% 0 -60%
 Percentage

CPI change vs previous year

6.43

5.4
4.87

3.39
3.17 3.18
2.93 2.98
2.4 2.47

Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20

In 2020, from Jan to Oct, CPI increased by 3.71% compared with the same
period last year.

Source: GSO (General Statistics Office of Vietnam)

 Percentage

Core inflation change vs previous year

3.25

2.94 2.95
2.71
2.54
2.45
2.31
2.16
1.97
1.88

Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20

From Jan to Oct, average core inflation increase by 2.52% compared with the
same period last year

Source: GSO (General Statistics Office of Vietnam)

 Billion USD

Import amount
YTM Monthly trend
(Jan-Oct) 30%

212,900 210,300 24,000

24,500
22,800 23,000
22,500 22,500
22,000 20%

20,400 20,500
19,000
19% 19,000 19,400
18,500
10%

9% 8% 9%
7%
-1% 0%
2%
1%
-2%
-3%
-10%

-9%
-13%
-
-15% -20%

2019 2020

Billion USD Trend vs previous year

The total amount of import in 2020 remained the same as the figure in 2019

Source: GSO (General Statistics Office of Vietnam)

 Billion USD

Export amount
YTM Monthly trend
(Jan-Oct) 30%

27,500
212,500 220,600 26,500 26,700
27%
20%
22,600 23,000
22,400
21,800
21,000 20% 19%
20,000 19,700
19,100 18,600 18,500 10%

8% 8%
5% 4% -1% 0%

2%
-3%
-5% -10%

-11%
-14%
- -20%

2019 2020

Billion USD Trend vs previous year

In 2020, from Jan to Oct, the total amount of export increased by 4% compared
with the same period in 2019
Source: GSO (General Statistics Office of Vietnam)
 Unit

Number of newly registered company

YTM Monthly trend
(Jan-Oct) 70%

60%
114,456
111,160 13,725
13,200 13,402 50%
55%
12,182 12,265 12,272 12,205 40%
11,787
11,418 30%
10,728
10,304
29% 20%

9,163
20% 10%

14% 8,276
7,885 0%
5% 6% 7%
-2% 0% 0% -10%

-6% -18%
-20%
-13%
-30%

-40%

-50%

0
-47% -60%

2019 2020

Unit Trend vs previous year

In the first 10 months in 2020, the number of newly registered company

dropped by 3% compared with the number in 2019
Source: National Business Registration Portal
 Unemployment ratio
2.73
2.50

2.17 2.16 2.17 2.22

2.15

Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020

Up to Quarter 3/2020, the unemployment ratio increased by 2.48% compared

with the number last year
Source: GSO (General Statistics Office of Vietnam)
 Unit

Car sales trend

Monthly trend
Category 2020 YTM 2019 YTM Trend 31,425 45% 50%
(Jan-Sep) (Jan-Sep) vs P.Y
27,989
29% 27,058 27,419 26,848
40%

25,828
30%
23,324 23,368
13% 20%

Total 172,626 219,238 -21% 20,363

6% 19,601
18,571 10%

-4% -1%
18,270
-2% -5% -3% 16,616
-11% -10%
0%
15,212
-10%

Passenger 127,166 163,520 -22% 10,816

-29% -20%

-40% -30%

-46% -40%

Commercial 43,692 53,149 -18% -52%

-50%

0 -60%

Special 1,768 2,569 -31%

purpose
Unit Trend vs previous year

Up to Q3/ 2020, car sales decreased by 21% compared with the same period in
2019
Source: VAMA (Vietnam Automobile Manufacturers' Association)
The figures include 3 types of car: Passenger cars, Commercial vehicles (trucks & buses) & Special-purpose vehicles
 Unit

Motorbike sales trend

YTQ Quarterly trend
2,334,890 (Q1-Q3) 1,000,000
-1% 0%

-4% -3%
-4%
900,000
-6% 920,074 -5%
1,927,736
800,000
831,440
-10%
700,000 753,934 749,516 731,077
600,000
677,739
-15%

-18%
500,000
518,920
-20%
400,000

300,000
-25%

200,000
-31%
-30%
100,000

0 -35%

2019 2020 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020

Unit Trend vs previous year

Up to Quarter 3/ 2020, the motor sales dropped by 17% compared with the
number last year
Source: VAMM (Vietnam Association of Motorcycle Manufacturers)
The numbers include: Honda, Piaggio, Suzuki, SYM & Yamaha
 Person

International visitors to Vietnam

YTM Monthly trend
14,488,843
(Jan-Oct) 2,100,000 39% 50%
2,000,000 34% 33%
1,900,000
29% 24%
40%
1,994,125
30%
1,800,000
1,700,000 1,809,580 20%

1,600,000 1,710,168 10%

1,500,000 1,618,337
1,561,274 0%
1,400,000
1,300,000 -22% -10%

1,200,000 -20%
1,100,000
1,242,731
-30%
1,000,000
900,000 -40%

800,000 -50%

3,803,305
700,000 -68% -60%
600,000
500,000 -70%

400,000 -80%
449,923
300,000 -98% -98% -99% -99% -99% -99% -99% -90%
200,000
-100%
100,000 26,241 22,672 8,784 13,940 16,301 13,769 14,819
0 -110%

2019 2020

Unit Trend vs previous year

Up to Oct 2020, the number of international visitors to Vietnam declined by

74% compared with the figure of the same period in 2019
Source: GSO (General Statistics Office of Vietnam)
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