Professional Documents
Culture Documents
July 7, 2021
1
Agenda
2
Agenda
3
MODELING SCOPE: VAHINE
ROI
• FY 2018: Dec 2017 – Nov 2018
• FY 2019: Dec 2018 – Nov 2019
• FY 2020:Dec 2019 – Nov 2020
• YTD 2020:Dec 2019 – May 2020
• YTD 2021: Dec 2020 – May 2021
4
Key business questions addressed through the MMM study
What are the drivers of performance for overall Vahine and its key sub-segments/sectors?
- Impact of change in own price & distribution, competition activity on sales, the elasticity of own price
What is the optimal budget allocation across TV and Digital channels to improve response from media?
5
Agenda
6
Recap of Vahine’s performance: Vahine witnessed growth both in value as well
as volume year over year; In MAT 2021 brand grew by 12.1%
VAHINE OVERALL PERFORMANCE VALUE SALES ( MM EUROS)
(MAT 2019 – MAT 2021)
SECTOR MAT 2020 MAT 2021
SECTOR SHARE MAT 2019 MAT 2020 MAT 2021 Vs. MAT Vs. MAT
VALUE SALES (MM EUROS) (MAT 2021) 2019 2020
12.1%
178 BAKING AID 87% 129.4 137.1 154.4 6.0% 12.6%
7.1%
159
148 SUGAR & YEAST 11% 15.3 18.5 20.4 20.5% 10.7%
MAT 2019 MAT 2020 MAT 2021 * Considered Aide A La Patisserie as ‘Baking Aid’, Sucre Et Levure as ‘Sugar & Yeast’, Preparation Pour as ‘Dessert Mixes’
7
Source: Nielsen
Increased consumption due to coronavirus restrictions supported by increased marketing
drove volume growth of 12.1%
Volume
12.1%
Environment Price Distribution Marketing Competition Residual
Value
9.1% -0.3% 0.5% 4.2% -1.6% 0.2%
12.1%
(9.1%) (-0.4%) (0.04%) (1.0%) (-0.5%) (0.1%) (4.1%) (-0.1%) (-0.9%) (-0.9%) (0.3%) (0.2%)
Key Takeaways:
1. Restrictions and stay at home measures 2. Supportive marketing sustained the 3. Limited Support from Own Execution 4. Increased competition distribution in
due to Coronavirus Pandemic drove most growth baking aid negatively impacted sales
of the growth • Increased # of SKUs per store (IPS) in
• Total Vahine media investment major sectors(Baking Aid,Sugar & Yeast) • Coverage & # of SKUs per retailer
• Lockdown, restrictions and stay at home increased by 309% ($ 1.0 M to $ 4.1M) contributed to 0.5% growth in volume increased for MDD & Sainte Lucie
measures due to Covid-19 contributed respectively
to 9.1% growth • Deeper discounts on Baking Aid led to • All sectors experienced increase in their
marginal growth of promo volume mix price resulting in 0.3% volume • Promotions by MDD in recent periods
decline impacted sales negatively
11 MAT 2019: Apr 2018 – May 2019; MAT 2020: Apr 2019 – May 2020, ; MAT 2021: Apr 2020 – May 2021
Source: Vahine MMM 2021
Vahine incremental activities contributes ~14% to total sales, driven by ~9% contribution
from promotions and ~5% from media
BASE AND INCREMENTAL CONTRIBUTION TO TOTAL VOLUME | BY SECTOR
Total Vahine Baking Aid Sugar & Yeast Dessert Mixes
(% vol. chng vs PP) +2.7% +12.1% +1.9% +12.4% +21.4% +12.2% -7.7% -5.8%
MAT' 19 MAT' 20 MAT' 21 MAT' 18 MAT' 19 MAT' 20 MAT' 19 MAT' 20 MAT' 21 MAT' 19 MAT' 20 MAT' 21
Volume
Total Vahine Baking Aid Sugar & Yeast Dessert Mixes
Contribution
(‘000 Kgs) MAT’ 18 MAT’ 19 MAT’ 20 MAT’ 18 MAT’ 19 MAT’ 20 MAT’ 18 MAT’ 19 MAT’ 20 MAT’ 18 MAT’ 19 MAT’ 20
Base Volume 11,876 12,150 13,026 11146 11289 12171 520 645 719 210 210 201
Promo Volume 998 1,241 1,375 848 1087 1224 102 132 130 48 29 21
Media Volume 312 144 769 275 124 656 30 14 38 8 7 9
13
MAT 2019: Apr 2018 – May 2019; MAT 2020: Apr 2019 – May 2020, ; MAT 2021: Apr 2020 – May 2021
Source: Vahine MMM 2021
Agenda
14
Topline Media Summary
15
With increased spends in YTD 2021 in comparison to YTD 2020, RROI increased driven by
higher returns generated for both TV and Digital channels
TV &
Total Media Digital
Associates
125% 170%
$2,590 180%
$2,163 39% $2,173 66%
6795%
$1,857 66% 80%
$1,318 $1,539 101%
Investment $1,374 $1,315
$634 $549 $535
(K $) $290 $24 $306 $266
3,216
3,343K K
Inc. Revenue 2,375K 2,374 K
959K 1,163K 841 K 1,288 K 1,851 K
($) 35K 34 K 476 K 691 K
271 K 227 K
2.04 1.29
1.54 1.20
1.33 1.44 0.89
1.10 1.28 0.87 0.85
1.11
Revenue ROI 0.73
0.45
(ST Impact)
0.12
0.46
0.50
0.31 0.30
0.24 0.32 0.35
0.23 0.29 0.28 0.31 0.33
0.23 0.20 0.22
Profit ROI
(ST Impact)
6795% 66%
$1,857 66% $1,776
$1,638
66% 67% $1,282
$1,051 $963
Investment 32% 60%
318%
$634 $579
(K $) $257
$24 $81 $55 $88 $24 $99
FY 1 8 FY 1 9 FY 2 0 YT D2 0 YT D2 1
FY 2 0 1 8 FY 2 0 1 9 FY 2 0 2 0 YT D2 0 2 0 YT D2 0 2 1 FY 1 8 F Y1 9 F Y20 Y TD 2 0 YT D 2 1 FY 1 8 F Y1 9 F Y2 0 Y TD 2 0 YT D2 1
Cost 1.4K 1.5K 1.8K 1.6K 11.0 11.7 11.0 11.2 14.5 0.93K
3,342 K
2,321 K 2,407 K
2,374 K
1,162 K 1,062 K
Inc. Revenue 841 K 795 K 836 K
($) 34 K 53 K 45 K 100 K 34 K 100 K
F F F
FY 18 FY 19 FY 20 YTD YTD
2.04 FY FY FY YTD YTD FY 18 FY 19 FY 20 YTD YTD 3.25
20 21 2018 2019 2020 2020 2021 20 21
1.88
1.33 1.44 1.44
1.28 1.37 1.14
1.11 1.31 1.01
Revenue ROI 1.10 0.83
0.65
(ST Impact)
0.79
FY 1 8 FY 1 9 FY 2 0 Y TD 2 0 YT D2 1 F Y1 8 FY 1 9 FY 2 0 YT D2 0 Y TD 2 1 FY 1 8 FY 1 9 FY 2 0 Y TD 2 0 YT D2 1
F Y18 F Y1 9 F Y20 Y TD 2 0 Y T D2 1
0.50
0.32 0.35 0.46
0.29 0.28
0.33 0.30 0.28
Profit ROI 0.30 0.35 0.25
0.17 0.19
(ST Impact)
FY 18 FY 19 FY 20 YT YT F F F YT YT F F F YT YT F F F YT YT
* Cost expressed as $ per GRP for TV and TV Sponsorship, $ per MM Impressions for VOD
17 FY18: Dec 2017 – Nov 2018; FY19: Dec 2018 – Nov 2019; FY20: Dec 2019 – Nov 2020; YTD20: Dec 2019 – May 2020; YTD21: Dec 2020 – May 2021
ST : Short Term Impact
Source: Vahine MMM 2021
Total Digital RROI improved in YTD 2021 vs YTD 2020 driven by improvement in ROI of all
digital channels except Digital Sponsorship
PERFORMANCE ACROSS DIGITAL CHANNELS
Online Video Digital
21Total Digital Paid Social Display Paid Search Influencers
(YouTube) Sponsorship
180%
1,539
Cost(K)/MM IMPS 1.2 1.2 1.2 2.8 1.0 1.0 8.2 12 5.3 2.7 3.4 3.7 8.9 1.9 0.5k/ 6.0K/ 1.17 1.35 0.41
Clicks Clicks
1
1,851
K
2
Inc. Revenue 3
($) 271 K
476 K
227 K
691 K 762 K
269 K
509 K
219 K K
94 K 118 K 69 K 84 K 160 K188 K 73 K 91 K 101 K 103 K 100 K168 K 31 K 88 K 16 K
5 K 7 K 39 K
3.3
2.0
Revenue ROI 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.5
1.2
1.4 1.4
1.2 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.2
(ST Impact) 0.9 0.9 0.9
0.5 0.5
0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.9
0.6 0.8
0.4
0.8
0.4 0.5
0.4
Profit ROI 0.2
0.3
0.2
0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
0.3
0.3 0.3
0.3 0.2
0.3 0.3 0.4
0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
(ST Impact) 0.1 0.1 0.1
18
FY18: Dec 2017 – Nov 2018; FY19: Dec 2018 – Nov 2019; FY20: Dec 2019 – Nov 2020; YTD20: Dec 2019 – May 2020; YTD21: Dec 2020 – May 2021
ST : Short Term Impact
Source: Vahine MMM 2021
ROI of Social, Online Video, Influencers compare favorably with the benchmarks; ROI of
Search fall behind
LONG TERM REVENUE ROI ACROSS MEDIA CHANNELS AND FRENCH BENCHMARK BY CHANNEL
$3.16
$2.84 $2.90
$2.59 $2.56 $2.50
$2.42
$2.19 $2.20
$2.08
Long Term $1.90
$2.02
Revenue $1.77
ROI $1.54
$1.32
$1.10
$1.38
Short Term $1.10 $1.14 $1.25 $1.20 $1.17
$0.94 $0.94
Revenue
ROI
2020 Global 2020 Global 2020 Global 2020 Global 2020 Global 2020 Global 2020 Global 2020 Global
Benchmark Benchmark Benchmark Benchmark Benchmark Benchmark Benchmark Benchmark
$0.65 $0.66
$0.63
$0.58 $0.59
$0.55
21
22
•
•
•
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
05/Nov/2017
19/Nov/2017
03/Dec/2017
17/Dec/2017
31/Dec/2017
Source: Nielsen
14/Jan/2018
28/Jan/2018
11/Feb/2018
25/Feb/2018
11/Mar/2018
25/Mar/2018
08/Apr/2018
Key Highlights
22/Apr/2018
06/May/2018
20/May/2018
03/Jun/2018
17/Jun/2018
01/Jul/2018
15/Jul/2018
29/Jul/2018
12/Aug/2018
26/Aug/2018
09/Sep/2018
23/Sep/2018
07/Oct/2018
21/Oct/2018
04/Nov/2018
18/Nov/2018
02/Dec/2018
16/Dec/2018
30/Dec/2018
13/Jan/2019
27/Jan/2019
SEASON
10/Feb/2019
24/Feb/2019
10/Mar/2019
24/Mar/2019
07/Apr/2019
21/Apr/2019
INVESTMENT('000$)
05/May/2019
19/May/2019
02/Jun/2019
Xmas 16/Jun/2019
Campaigns executed in Feb - Mar have lower effectiveness than Xmas and Easter
978
30/Jun/2019
2020 14/Jul/2019
28/Jul/2019
11/Aug/2019
25/Aug/2019
08/Sep/2019
83
22/Sep/2019
2021
06/Oct/2019
TOTAL VAHINE VOLUME TREND
Ephiphany
20/Oct/2019
03/Nov/2019
17/Nov/2019
01/Dec/2019
15/Dec/2019
531
2021
29/Dec/2019
12/Jan/2020
Chandeleur
26/Jan/2020
09/Feb/2020
23/Feb/2020
08/Mar/2020
22/Mar/2020
05/Apr/2020
19/Apr/2020
03/May/2020
17/May/2020
Post the peak of 27th Dec' 2020, sales trend declined over the following weeks; Apr' 2020 onwards sales started picking up again
31/May/2020
14/Jun/2020
28/Jun/2020
12/Jul/2020
26/Jul/2020
09/Aug/2020
Overall effectiveness increased in YTD 2021 with 'Xmas' and 'Epiphany' campaigns being more effective than 'Chandeleur' across channels
23/Aug/2020
06/Sep/2020
20/Sep/2020
04/Oct/2020
18/Oct/2020
01/Nov/2020
15/Nov/2020
29/Nov/2020
13/Dec/2020
Xmas +
27/Dec/2020
Epiphany
10/Jan/2021
24/Jan/2021
07/Feb/2021
21/Feb/2021
Chandeleur
07/Mar/2021
21/Mar/2021
04/Apr/2021
18/Apr/2021
02/May/2021
TV campaign laydown (Nov 2017 – Apr 2021)
Vanilla Gold
2018 2020 Vanilla Gold Vanilla Gold
150 2018 2018 Xmas
Epiphanie Xmas 2020 Chandeleur 2021
Chandeleur (Joy)
Epiphanie
Decoration
GRPs
50
0
/ / / / 2 1 1 / 2 1 / 2 1 / 2 1 / / / / / 2 1 / 2 1 / 2 1 / 2 1 / 2 / / / / 1 / 2 1 / 2 1 / 2 1 / 3 2 / / / / 2
11 1 1 1 2 1 1/ 2 / 3 / 4 4 / 5/ 6 6/ 7 / 8 8/ 9 / 10 1 0 11 1 2 12 1/ 2 / 3 3/ 4/ 5 5/ 6 / 7 7 / 8/ 9 9/ 1 0 11 1 2 1 2 1/ 2 2/ 3 / 4 4 / 5/ 6 6/ 7 / 8 8/ 9/ 10 1 1 11 1 2 1/
23
Source: Publicis Kitchen
TV - Xmas 2020 and Chandeleur 2021 campaigns were both effective as well as efficient
TV Sponsorship - Effectiveness of 'Le Meilleur' was slightly lower than 'Un Diner', but generated
similar ROI driven by lower cost of execution
TV & TV TV Sponsorship
TV Sponsorship
Epiphanie Joy DriedFruit Xmas Epiphanie Vanilla Gold Vanilla Gold Vanilla Gold Un Diner
Chandeleur 2018 Decoration 2018 Le Meilleur 2021
2018 2018 2018 2019 2020 Xmas 2020 Chandeleur 2021 2021
(Jan) (Jan-Feb) (Mar -Apr) (Oct-Nov) (Dec) (Jan) (May-Jun) (Nov-Dec) (Jan-Feb) (Feb) (Apr-May)
$3.2 $3.2
$1.8 $1.9 5 4
$1.5 $1.4 $1.0 $1.3 $1.2 $1.1
6 $1.0 3 7
1 8 2 1 5 0
Revenue ROI (ST)
p ip h a
E n ie
2018 Cha
nde
lu r2 0 1 8 De
o ra
c ti o n 2 0 1 8 Jo y
Drie
d F
ru it2 0 1 8 X ma
s2 0 1 8 p ip h a
E n ie
2019 Va
n ila
Go ld 2 0 2 0 Va
n ila
G o ld X ma
s2 0 2 0 Va
n ila
G o ld C h a
nde
lu r2 0 2 1 U n D in e
r2 0 2 1 Me
e
L u r2 0 2 1
ile
$0. $0.
$0. $0. $0. $0. $0. 80 78
$0. $0. $0. $0. 46 47
38 34 32
Profit ROI (ST) 28 22 26 28
p ip h a
E n ie
20 1 8 Ch a
n de
lu r2 0 1 8 De
co ra
ti o n 2 0 1 8 Jo yD rie
dFru it2 0 1 8 X ma
s2 0 1 8 p ip h a
E n ie
20 19 Va
n ila
G o ld 2 0 2 0 Va
n ila
G o ld X ma
s2 0 2 0 Va
n ila
G o ld C h a
n de
lu r2 0 2 1 U n Din e
r2 0 2 1 Me
Le u r2 0 2 1
ile
$96 $85
$46 3 0
$36 $39 $36 $43
$16 2 3 0 7 $11 2 $16
Investment 1 2 $91 7
(K $) p ip h a
E n ie
20 18 Cha
n de
lu r2 0 1 8 De
co ra
ti o n 2 0 1 8 Jo yD rie
dFru it2 0 1 8 X ma
s2 0 1 8 p ip h a
E n ie
2019 Va
n ila
Go ld 2 0 2 0 Va
n ila
G o ld X ma
s2 0 2 0 Va
n ila
G o ld C h a
nde
lu r2 0 2 1 Un Din e
r2 0 2 1 Me
Le u r2 0 2 1
ile
(GRPs) (136) (287) ( 280) (233) (301) (89) (529) (477) (292) (91) (187)
FY 2020 & YTD 2021 INVESTMENT SUMMARY (K $) PERFORMANCE OF WITH TAG-ON VS WITHOUT TAG-ON(FY 2020 & YTD 2021)
2 1.88
2
2
1
1 1.10
1
1 Revenue ROI
1 (ST)
[CELLRANGE],
$963 0
[CELLRANGE] 0
, $1,282 0
With Tag-On Without Tag-On
25 Tag On campaigns include: Vanilla Gold Xmas 2020 with Vanilla Paste Tag in Nov-Dec and Vanilla Gold Chandeleur 2021 with Candlemas Vanilla Sugar Tag in Jan-Feb
ST : Short Term Impact
Source: Vahine MMM 2021
Longer duration copy more effective than shorter duration copy; Vahine followed the mix of
longer and shorter durations executed in parallel, contributing to its stronger TV ROIs
50
0
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0/.. 1/.. 2/.. 1/.. 2/.. 3/.. 4/.. 5/.. 6/.. 7/.. 7/.. 8/.. 9/.. 0/.. 1/.. 2/.. 1/.. 2/.. 3/.. 4/.. 5/.. 6/.. 6/.. 7/.. 8/.. 9/.. 0/.. 1/.. 2/.. 1/.. 2/.. 3/.. 4/.. 5/.. 5/.. 6/.. 7/.. 8/.. 9/.. 0/.. 1/.. 2/.. 2/..
/1 /1 /1 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /1 /1 /1 /0 /0 0/0 7/0 5/0 2/0 0/0 8/0 5/0 2/0 0/1 7/1 5/1 2/0 9/0 8/0 5/0 3/0 1/0 8/0 6/0 3/0 0/0 8/1 5/1 3/1 7/0
22 19 17 14 11 11 08 06 03 01 29 26 23 21 18 16 13 10 10s 1 0 12s0 015s3 223s2 30s 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 0
All y...
$0.3
All$0.
y... All y...
$0.3
3 44 7
Profit ROI (ST)
1.6
A ly e a rs
Ally e a rs Ally e a rs
1.8 1.7
K K K
Cost/ GRP
($) 2.6
All years All3.3
years All K
years
2.1K K
Effectiveness
(Inc. Rev/ GRP
in $) All years All y... All y...
TV has been more responsive to Vanilla and Halfpy Birthday than other seasons
Origi
VAHINE – TV (NOV 2017 – APR 2021)
2018
200 Vanilla Gold
Epiphanie 90.00
2020 Vanilla Gold Vanilla Gold
2018 2018 Xmas 80.00
2017 Xmas 2020 Chandeleur 2021
160 Chandeleur (Joy) 70.00
Xmas Epiphanie
Decoration 60.00
120 Joy Dried Fruit 50.00
GRPs
40.00
80
30.00
40 20.00
10.00
- 0.00
10 11 12 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ 6/ 7/ 7/ 8/ 9/ 10 11 12 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ 6/ 6/ 7/ 8/ 9/ 10 11 12 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ 5/ 6/ 7/ 8/ 9/ 10 11 12 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/
By assuming 100 GRPs invested in TV for each season, ROI from only TV has been compared by using same average across bursts/seasons
Comparison of TV performance across Seasons based on capacity to generate Uplifts
Season Assumed Activity Investment ST ROI LT ROI
(GRPs) (‘000 USD)
Vanilla 100 162 1.9 3.57
Superiority 100 162 0.7 1.37
Sugar & yeast 100 162 0.6 1.17
Halfpy Birthday 100 162 1.4 2.59
27
Source: Vahine MMM 2021
TV has been more responsive to Vanilla and Halfpy Birthday than other seasons
GRPs
Vanilla Gold 40.00
80 Xmas 2020
30.00
40 20.00
10.00
- 0.00
10 11 12 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ 6/ 7/ 7/ 8/ 9/ 10 11 12 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ 6/ 6/ 7/ 8/ 9/ 10 11 12 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ 5/ 6/ 7/ 8/ 9/ 10 11 12 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/
Promo Period
By assuming 100 GRPs invested in TV for each season, ROI from only TV has been compared by using same average across bursts/seasons
Comparison of TV performance across Seasons based on capacity to generate Uplifts
Season Assumed Activity Investment ST ROI LT ROI
(GRPs) (‘000 USD)
Vanilla 100 162 1.9 3.57
Superiority 100 162 0.7 1.37
Sugar & yeast 100 162 0.6 1.17
Halfpy Birthday 100 162 1.4 2.59
28
Source: Vahine MMM 2021
Opportunity to increase investment in TV up to $3.7M, post that incremental profit starts
declining
TV
5.0%
3,000 K
4.5%
OPTIMAL: [X
VALUE]
4.0% 2,500 K
MAT'21:2,244K
3.5%
2,000 K
3.0%
Profit ($)
2.5% MAT'21:2,244K 1,500 K
2.0%
1,000 K
1.5%
1.0%
500 K
0.5%
0.0% 0K
0K 4,000 K 8,000 K 12,000 K 16,000 K 20,000 K 0K 2,000 K 4,000 K 6,000 K 8,000 K 10,000 K
29
Source: Vahine MMM 2021
Potential to increase investment in TV Sponsorship till $ 509 K
TV Sponsorship
70 K
1.4%
60 K
1.2%
50 K
1.0% MAT'21: 257K
40 K
Profit ($)
0.8%
30 K
0.6%
0.4% 20 K
0.2% 10 K
MAT'21: 257 K
0.0% 0K
0K 500 K 1,000 K 1,500 K 2,000 K 2,500 K 3,000 K 3,500 K 4,000 K 4,500 K 5,000 K 0K 20 K 40 K 60 K 80 K 100 K 120 K 140 K
30
Source: Vahine MMM 2021
VOD campaign laydown (Nov 2017 – Apr 2021)
31
Source: Publicis Kitchen
Both Xmas 2020 and Chandeleur 2021 were more effective than campaigns executed in previous
years, while high cost of execution pulled down their ROI
VOD
Chandeleur Decoration Xmas Xmas Vanilla Gold Vanilla Gold Xmas Vanilla Gold Chandeleur
2018 2018 2018 2019 2020 2020 2021
$64 $61
$44 $37 $45 $38
$34
Investment
(K $) Chandeleur 2018 Decoration 2018 Xmas 2018 Xmas 2019 Vanilla Gold 2020 Vanilla Gold Xmas 2020 Vanilla Gold Chandeleur 2021
Chandeleur 2018 Dec oration 2018 Xmas 2018 Xmas 2019 Vanilla G old 2020 Vanilla G old Xmas 2020 Vanilla G old Chandeleur 2021
15.
Effectiveness 11. 11. 11. 5K
13.
8.7 1K
(Inc. Rev/ MM Imps K
6.1 2K 8K 4K
K
in $)
Chandeleur 2018 Decoration 2018 Xmas 2018 Xmas 2019 Vanilla Gold 2020 Vanilla Gold Xmas 2020 Vanilla Gold Chandeleur 2021
32
ST : Short Term Impact
Source: Vahine MMM 2021
Potential to increase investment in VOD from $ 163 K (in MAT 2021) to $ 287K
VOD
0.25% OPTIMAL: [X
8K
VALUE]
MAT'21: 163K
7K
0.20%
6K
0.15% 5K
MAT'21:163K
Profit ($)
4K
0.10%
3K
2K
0.05%
1K
0.00% 0K
0K 100 K 200 K 300 K 400 K 500 K 600 K 0K 100 K 200 K 300 K 400 K 500 K
33
Source: Vahine MMM 2021
Paid Social campaign laydown (Nov 2017 – Apr 2021)
Always On
VAHINE – PAID SOCIAL (NOV 2017 – APR 2021) (General, Back To School,
30000000 Always On 2020
Halfpy Birthday)
(General)
&
25000000
2018 2019 Vanilla Gold
20000000
MM Impressions
Vahine
15000000 Epipahny, Chandeleur, Q2,
Easter 2021
10000000
5000000
0
/ / / 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 9 / / / / 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 8 / / / / 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 9 6 / / / / 2 2 2 1
11 12 12 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ 6/ 7/ 8/ 9/ 10 11 12 12 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ 6/ 7/ 8/ 9/ 10 11 12 12 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ 6/ 7/ 8/ 9/ 10 11 11 12 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/
34
Source: Publicis Kitchen
Xmas 2020 and Epiphany 2021 were the most effective campaigns, followed by Q2 2021, Easter and
Chandeleur; Higher CPM for Xmas 2020 impeded its ROI
Paid Social
AlwaysOn AlwaysOn
Vanilla Gold Xmas Chandeleur Q2 Easter
2018 2019 AlwaysOn 2020 BackToSchool HalfpyBirthday AlwaysOn 2021 Epiphany 2021
2020 2020 2020 2021 2021 2021
2020
(Sep-Dec) (Jun-Nov) (Sep-Nov) (Sep-Nov) (Nov-Dec) (Nov-Jan) (Dec-Jan) (Jan-Feb) (Feb-Apr) (Apr-May)
(FB/IG & (FB/IG) (FB/IG) (FB/IG) (FB/IG & (FB/IG) (FB/IG) (FB/IG & (FB/IG) (FB/IG)
Pinterest) Pinterest) $3.4 Pinterest)
1
$1.4 $1.3 $1.2 $1.5 $1.2 $1.4 $1.1 $1.0
7 $0.8 $0.7 $0.8
3 6 6 9 9 5 7 8 1
5
Revenue ROI (ST) 2 0 18 20 1 9 Va
n ila
G o ld 2 0 2 0 Alw a
ysOn 2 0 2 0 A lw a
ysO n 2 0 2 0 A lw a
ysO n 2 0 2 0 X ma
s2 0 2 0 Alw a
ysO n 2 0 2 1 p ip h a
E n y2 0 2 1 Cha
nd e
lu r2 0 2 1 Q2 2 0 2 1 r2 0 2 1
ste
a
E
$0.
$0. $0. 84
$0. $0. $0. $0. $0. $0. $0. $0. $0.
32 33 33 41 33 36 29 26
23 19 22
Profit ROI (ST) 20 18 2019 Va
n ila
G o ld 2 0 2 0 A lwa
sO n 2 0 2 0
y A lw a
sO n 2 0 2 0
y Alw a
sOn 2 0 2 0
y X ma
s2 0 2 0 A lw a
sO n 2 0 2 1
y p ip h a
E n y
2021 C ha
n de
lu r2 0 2 1 Q2 2 0 2 1 r2 0 2 1
ste
a
E
$43
5
$11
Investment $73 $88 $22 $88 $58 2
$36 $52 $36 $29
$4
(K $) 2018 20 1 9 Va
n ila
Go ld 2 0 2 0 A lwa
ysO n 2 0 2 0 A lw a
ysO n 2 0 2 0 A lwa
ysO n 2 0 2 0 X ma
s2 0 2 0 Alw a
ysO n 2 0 2 1 p ip h a
E n y2 0 2 1 Ch a
nd e
lu r2 0 2 1 Q2 2 0 2 1 r2 0 2 1
ste
a
E
(MM Impressions) (63) (73) (408) (21) (49) (26) (25) (16) (4) (26) (13) (12)
4.4
1.8 2.3 K 2.3 2.0 2.8 2.4
1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 K K
K K K K K K
Cost/ MM Imps ($) K K K
2018 20 19 Va
n ila
G o ld 2 0 2 0 A lw a
sO n 2 0 2 0
y A lw a
sO n 2 0 2 0
y A lw a
sO n 2 0 2 0
y X ma
s2 0 2 0 A lw a
sO n 2 0 2 1
y p ip h a
E ny2021 Cha
nde
lu r2 0 2 1 Q2 2 0 2 1 r2 0 2 1
ste
a
E
FY 2020 & YTD 2021 INVESTMENT SUMMARY (K $) PERFORMANCE ACROSS PAID SOCIAL VENDORS (FY 2020 & YTD 2021)
1 1.21
[CELLRANGE] 1
, $58 1
1
1
1 0.61
0 Revenue ROI
0 (ST)
0
0
0
Facebook / Instagram Pinterest
[CELLRANG
E], $814
Profit ROI (ST) 0.31 0.16
Effectiveness
(Inc. Rev/ MM Impressions 1.7 K 2.4 K
in $ )
MM Impressions 584 15
36
ST : Short Term Impact
Source: Vahine MMM 2021
Investment in Paid Social close to optimal; Scope to increase investment in paid social to
optimal investment of $ 935 K
Paid Social
1.6%
OPTIMAL:
1,600 K 935K
MAT'21: 702K
1.4%
1,400 K
1.2%
1,200 K
Profit ($)
0.8% 800 K
0.6% 600 K
0.4% 400 K
0.2% 200 K
0.0% 0K
0K 500 K 1,000 K 1,500 K 2,000 K 2,500 K 0K 500 K 1,000 K 1,500 K 2,000 K 2,500 K 3,000 K 3,500 K
37
Source: Vahine MMM 2021
Online Video (YouTube) campaign laydown (Nov 2017 – Apr 2021)
MM Impressions
Xmas
5,000,000.0
Vanilla Gold
4,000,000.0
Xmas
Vanilla Gold
3,000,000.0 Ephiphany
0.0
38
Source: Publicis Kitchen
YTD 2021 ROI increased driven by high effectiveness of Xmas 2020 and 2021 campaigns and lower
cost of execution
Online Video
Vanilla Gold Xmas Vanilla Gold Epiphany
Xmas 2018 Xmas 2019 Vanilla Gold 2020 Vanilla Gold Chandeleur 2021
2020 2021
$30
4
$13
Investment 9
$18 $19 $23 $14
(K $) X ma
s2 0 1 8 X ma
s2 0 1 9 Va
n ila
G o ld 2 0 2 0 Va
n ila
G o ld X ma
s2 0 2 0 Va
n ila
G o ld E
p h ip h a
n y2 0 2 1 Va
n ila
G o ld C h a
nde
lu r2 0 2 1
12.
0K 7.1 5.2 5.4 5.3
1.0 K K K K
K
Cost/ MM Imps ($) Xmas 2018 Xmas 2019 Vanilla G old 2020 Va nilla Gold Xmas 2020 Vanilla G old Ephiphany 2021 Vanilla G old Chandeleur 2021
39
ST : Short Term Impact
Source: Vahine MMM 2021
Longer video length (51 s) more effective than shorter duration, while shorter duration are cost –
efficient; The effective mix of 51s and 6s video lengths, contributing to improved effectiveness of
Online Video
4000000 VAHINE – ONLINE VIDEO BY COPY DURATION (NOV 2017 – APR 2021)
3500000
3000000
MM Impressions
2500000
2000000
1500000
1000000
500000
0
Online Video
1.2%
OPTIMAL:
180 K [X
VALUE]
1.0% 160 K
140 K
0.8% 120 K
Profit ($)
100 K
0.6%
80 K
0.0% 0K
0K 500 K 1,000 K 1,500 K 2,000 K 2,500 K 0K 400 K
41
Source: Vahine MMM 2021
Display campaign laydown (Nov 2017 – Apr 2021)
9,000,000.0
Vanilla Gold Ephiphany
8,000,000.0
Vanilla Gold Chandeleur
Anniversary Chandeleur Birthday
7,000,000.0 Vanilla Gold Xmas Superiority
(Food Lab Display) (Marmiton Display) Vanilla Gold
6,000,000.0 Sugar and Yeast
5,000,000.0
4,000,000.0
Vanilla Gold
3,000,000.0
2,000,000.0 Xmas
1,000,000.0
0.0
/
/
/
/
/
/
/
/
/
1
2
7
1
1
2
1
2
1
5
2
1
2
1
2
1
7
2
1
2
1
3
2
2
2
1
11
10
12
10
12
11
11
12
10
11
12
11
12
10
11
12
2/
4/
1/
3/
1/
3/
4/
5/
6/
7/
8/
2/
3/
4/
5/
6/
7/
8/
9/
2/
4/
6/
7/
8/
9/
1/
3/
5/
1/
2/
4/
6/
8/
9/
1/
3/
5/
7/
9/
1/
3/
5/
6/
8/
2/
4/
42
Source: Publicis Kitchen
Xmas 2020 and Epiphany 2021 were more effective than Chandeleur, Superiority, Sugar & Yeast;
High effectiveness accompanied with relatively lower cost of execution for 2021 campaigns
generated higher ROI
Display
Vanilla Gold Vanilla Gold Xmas Vanilla Gold Vanilla Gold Sugar and Yeast
Anniversary 2018 Chandeleur 2019 Birthday 2019 Xmas 2019 2020 2020 Ephiphany 2021 Chandeleur 2021 Superiority 2021 2021
(Jun & Sep) (Food Lab display (Marmiton Display (Nov-Dec) (Jul-Dec) (Nov-Dec) (Jan) (Jan-Feb) (Apr-May) (Apr-May)
Jan-Mar) May-Jun)
$4.3 $4.1
$3.3 1 $2.7 5
$2.5 4
$1.3 $1.6 0 7
$0.7 $0.9 $0.6 7
5 6 1 9
Revenue ROI $(ST)
Anniversary 2018 Chandeleur 2019 Birthday 2019 Xmas 2019 Vanilla Gold 2020 Vanilla Gold Xmas 2020 Vanilla Gold Ephiphany 2021 Vanilla Gold Chandeleur 2021 Superiority 2021 Sugar and Yeast 2021
$1. $1.
$0. $0. 05 $0. 05
$0. $0. 64 83 70
$0. $0. $0. 43
34 17 20 18
Profit ROI $(ST) Anniversary 2018 Chandeleur 2019 Birthday 2019 Xmas 2019 Vanilla Gold 2020 Vanilla Gold Xmas 2020 Vanilla Gold Ephiphany 2021 Vanilla Gold Chandeleur 2021 Superiority 2021 Sugar and Yeast 2021
$11
6
$89
$66 $57
$34
Investment $11 $8 $11 $24 $12
(K $) Anniversary 2 018 Chandeleur 2019 Birthday 2019 Xmas 2019 Vanilla Gold 2020 Vanilla Gold Xmas 2020 Vanilla Gold Ephiphany 2021 Vanilla Gold Chandeleur 2021 Superiority 2021 Sugar and Yeast 2021
(MM Impressions) (12.5) (12.7) (43.0) (6.8) (31.1) (3.4) (3.5) (8.0) (11.4) (8.2)
8.4
5.2 K
2.7 K 2.7 2.9 3.2 2.3 2.1
K 1.4 1.5
K
Cost/ MM Imps ($) K K K K K K
Annivers ary 2018 Chandeleur 2019 Birthday 2019 Xmas 2019 Vanilla Gold 2020 Vanilla G old Xmas 2020 Vanilla G old Ephiphany 2021 Vanilla Gold Chandeleur 2021 Superiority 2021 Sugar and Yeast 2021
7.9 7.8
5.8 4.8 K K 5.9 5.9 6.1
Effectiveness 3.6 3.9
2.5 K K K K K
K K
(Inc. Rev/ MM Imps K
in $) Anniversary 2018 Chandeleur 2019 Birthday 2019 Xmas 2019 Vanilla Gold 2020 Vanilla Gold Xmas 2020 Vanilla Gold Ephiphany 2021 Vanilla Gold Chandeleur 2021 Superiority 2021 Sugar and Yeast 2021
43
ST : Short Term Impact
Source: Vahine MMM 2021
Investment in display not yet saturated; Potential to increase investment in Display till
$326 K
Display
0.7% 120 K
OPTIMAL: [X
0.6%
VALUE]
100 K
0.5%
80 K
0.4%
MAT'21: [X
Profit ($)
60 K VALUE]
0.3%
MAT'21:122K 40 K
0.2%
20 K
0.1%
0.0% 0K
0K 200 K 400 K 600 K 800 K 1,000 K 1,200 K 0K 100 K 200 K
44
Source: Vahine MMM 2021
Paid Search campaign laydown (Nov 2017 – Apr 2021)
25000 VAHINE – GENERIC PAID SEARCH (NOV 2017 – APR 2021) Always On
Acceleration AlwaysOn Halfpy
(General &
2020
20000 AlwaysOn Halfpy Birthday)
2020
15000
Clicks (‘000)
10000
5000
0
Clicks (‘000)
Paid Search was also executed in 2018 and 2019; However, bifurcation of Generic and Branded Paid Search was not available for 2018 and 2019 Paid Search campaigns
45
Source: Publicis Kitchen
AlwaysOn Halfpy Birthday 2021 was both effective as well as efficient; Heavy weight of execution
for AlwaysOn General 2021 pulled down its ROI
Paid Search
2020 AlwaysOn: 2020 AlwaysOn: 2021 AlwaysOn: 2021 AlwaysOn:
2018 2019 Q3 Acceleration 2020 Xmas 2020
HalfpyBirthday General HalfpyBirthday General
(Generic in Jun) (Generic in Sept -Nov) (Branded & Generic (Generic in Dec) (Generic in Dec - (Branded & Generic
in Jun - Nov) May) in Dec - May)
$1.2 $1.5
$0.7 8 $0.8 4 $1.0 $0.8
$0.7 $0.6 3
6 4 8 8 6
Revenue ROI (ST)
2018 2019 Q3 Acceleration 2020 AlwaysOn HalfpyBirthday 2020 AlwaysOn General 2020 Xmas 2020 AlwaysOn HalfpyBirthday 2021 AlwaysOn General 2021
$10 $12
6 4
Investment $68 $71
(K $) $27 $40
$12 $1
2018 2019 Q3 Acceleration 2020 AlwaysOn HalfpyBirthday 2020 AlwaysOn General 2020 Xmas 2020 AlwaysOn HalfpyBirthday 2021 AlwaysOn General 2021
69 63 68 56
49 8K 47 0K
6K 2K 2K 4K
Cost/ ‘000 Clicks ($)
2018 2019 Q3 Ac celeration 2020 Always On HalfpyBirthday 2020 Always On G eneral 2020 Xmas 2020 Always On HalfpyBirthday 2021 Always On G eneral 2021
973
Effectiveness 637 615 K 700
486
K K 323 K
(Inc. Rev/ ‘000 Clicks K K
in $)
2018 2019 Q3 Acceleration 2020 AlwaysOn HalfpyBirthday 2020 AlwaysOn General 2020 Xmas 2020 AlwaysOn HalfpyBirthday 2021 AlwaysOn General 2021
46
ST : Short Term Impact
Source: Vahine MMM 2021
Despite higher CPC, Generic search campaigns more effective than Branded search campaigns
Paid Search
FY 2020 & YTD 2021 PERFORMANCE OF BRANDED VS GENERIC PAID SEARCH (FY 2020 & YTD 2021)
INVESTMENT SUMMARY (K $)
1
1 0.94
[CELLRAN 1
GE], $5 1
1
1 0.53
0 Revenue ROI
0 (ST)
0
0
[CELLRAN 0
Generic Paid Search Branded Paid Search
GE], $213
Effectiveness
(Inc. Rev/ 000’ Clicks 519 K 203 K
in $ )
Generic Paid Search Branded Paid Search Cost / ‘000 Clicks 550 K 382 K
($)
Clicks(‘000) 388 14
47
ST : Short Term Impact
Source: Vahine MMM 2021
Channel hasn’t reached saturation, scope to increase investment in paid search till
$397 K
Paid Search
1.2% 45.0 K
40.0 K
1.0%
35.0 K
MAT'21: 218K
0.8% 30.0 K
25.0 K
Profit ($)
0.6%
20.0 K
0.4% 15.0 K
MAT'21:218K
10.0 K
0.2%
5.0 K
0.0% 0.0 K
0K 200 K 400 K 600 K 800 K 1,000 K 1,200 K 1,400 K 1,600 K 1,800 K 0K 100 K 200 K 300 K 400 K 500 K 600 K 700 K 800 K 900 K
48
Source: Vahine MMM 2021
Influencers campaign laydown (Nov 2017 – Apr 2021)
VAHINE – INFLUENCERS (NOV 2017 – APR 2021)
MM Impressions
350,000.00
300,000.00
250,000.00
200,000.00
150,000.00
100,000.00
50,000.00
0.00
49
Source: Publicis Kitchen
Roxanne engagement in 2020 yielded higher returns compared to other influencer engagements;
Roxanne returns improved in 2020 vs previous years
Influencers
2018 2019 2020 Always On: 2020 Always On :
Roxanne Roxanne Halfpy Birthday Roxanne
(Sep-Oct)
$1.16
$0.96
$0.81 $0.78
$0.30
$0.25
$0.21 $0.19
$134
$101 $96
Investment
(K $) $28
V ah in e_2 0 1 8 _In fl u en cers V ah in e_2 0 1 9 _In fl u en cers V ah in e_2 0 2 0 _A lwaysO n _H alfp yB irth d ay V ah in e_2 0 2 0 _A lwaysO n
50
ST : Short Term Impact
Source: Vahine MMM 2021
Potential to increase investment in Influencers till $150K
Influencers
3.5% 20 K
VALUE]
3.0% 18 K
16 K
2.5%
14 K
MAT'21: 89 K
2.0%
12 K
Profit ($)
1.5% 10 K
8K
1.0%
6K
0.5%
MAT'21: 89 K 4K
0.0%
0K 200 K 400 K 600 K 800 K 1,000 K 1,200 K 1,400 K 1,600 K 1,800 K 2,000 K 2K
-0.5% 0K
0K 20 K 40 K 60 K 80 K 100 K 120 K 140 K
51
Source: Vahine MMM 2021
Digital Sponsorship campaign laydown (Nov 2017 – Apr 2021)
M M Im pressions
Acceleration
5000000
VAHINE – DIG ITAL SPONSORSHIP (NOV 2 0 1 7 – APR 2 0 2 1 )
4000000
3000000
2000000
Un Diner Le Meilleur
1000000
52
Source: Publicis Kitchen
2021 campaigns more effective than Acceleration 2020, High cost associated with 2021 campaigns
pulled down the ROIs
Digital
Sponsorship
Acceleration 2020 Un Diner 2021 Le Meilleur 2021
$0.40 $0.42
Revenue ROI (ST)
Acceleration 2020 Un Diner 2021 Le Meilleur 2021
$0.3
1 $0.1 $0.1
Profit ROI (ST) 0 1
Acceleration 2020 Un Diner 2021 Le Meilleur 2021
$105
Investment $31
(K $) $8
Acceleration 2020 Un Diner 2021 Le Meilleur 2021
17.3 17.3
K K
5.2
Cost/ MM Imps ($) K
Acceleration 2020 Un Diner 2021 Le Meilleur 2021
53
ST : Short Term Impact
Source: Vahine MMM 2021
Investment in digital sponsorship not yet saturated; Potential to increase investment till $236
K
Digital Sponsorship
2.0%
VALUE]
6K
1.8%
5K
1.6%
1.4%
4K
1.2% MAT'21: 79K
Profit ($)
1.0% 3K
0.8%
2K
0.6%
0.4%
1K
0.2%
0.0% 0K
0K 200 K 400 K 600 K 800 K 1,000 K 1,200 K 1,400 K 1,600 K 1,800 K 0K 50 K 100 K 150 K 200 K 250 K 300 K 350 K 400 K 450 K
54
Source: Vahine MMM 2021
Media channel performance framework
Continue investing in TV, while need to improve the efficiency of Paid Social; Display can be the strategic
investments driving long term sales
1.2
STRATEGIC INVESTMENT
Opportunity to increase investment
in the channel to ensure wider
0.8 audience reach contributing to
higher volume
0.4 EVALUATE
Evaluate the performance of the
MAINTAIN & OPTIMIZE channel on the execution,
EVALUATE investment levels, cost of execution,
- etc.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
* Quadrant based on median ST ROI and incremental Revenue contribution across channels
* Size of bubble indicates investment
55
ST : Short Term Impact
Source: Vahine MMM 2021
Healthy January is the most efficient campaign in the short run
Investment Revenue Profit ROI Investment Revenue Profit Investment Revenue Profit Investment Revenue ROI Profit Investment Revenue Profit
(‘000$) ROI (‘000$) ROI ROI (‘000$) ROI ROI (‘000$) ROI (‘000$) ROI ROI
TOTAL 1053
1.6 0.4 547 1.84 0.45 35 2.13 0.54 122 2.53 0.62 175 3.10 0.75
8 2
TV 850 1.80 0.50 432 2.00 0.50
Paid Search 1
1.5 0.4
0 2.5
00.6 1.1 3.3
4.30 0.80
0
Display 11 11 8
00 0
Online Video 19 1.70 0.40 14 1.30 0.30 23 1.50 0.40
Influencer
Investment Revenue ROI Profit ROI Investment Revenue ROI Profit Investment Revenue ROI Profit ROI Investment Revenue ROI Profit ROI
(‘000$) (‘000$) ROI (‘000$) (‘000$)
TOTAL 1855
1.60.3 186 1.03 0.27 88 1.30 0.33 98 0.90 0.24
8 0
TV 963 1.80 0.30
Paid Social 435 0.80 0.30 22 1.60 0.40 88 1.30 0.33 58 0.90 0.23
Paid Search
1.5 68
0.7 0.2 12
0.9 0.2
0 2.5
0.4 0 0 0 0
Display 89
00
Online Video 304 1.70 0.30
Digital Sponsorship
TV Sponsorship
600000
Volume Uplift(‘000 KG)
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1
2 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 20 1 2 0 1 20 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 20 1 2 0 1 20 1 20 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 20 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 20 1 2 0 1 20 1 20 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 2 20 2 20 2 2 0 2 20 2 2 0 2 2 0 2 2 0 2 2 0 2 20 2 2 0 2 2 0 2 2 0 2 2 0 2 20 2 20 2 2 0 2
/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /
/5 /3 31 28 25 25 22 20 17 15 12 9/9 0/7 1/4 2/2 /30 /27 /24 /24 /21 /19 /16 /14 /11 9/8 0/6 1/3 2/1 /29 /26 /23 /22 /19 /17 /14 /12 8/9 9/6 0/4 1/1 /29 /27 /24 /21 /21 /18
1 1 12 1 2 / 1 / 2/ 3 / 4/ 5/ 6/ 7/ 8 / 1 1 1 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1 1 1 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 1 1 1 12 1 2 3 4
Organic Influencers Website Traffic DOOH BVOD Display Influencers Online Video Paid Social Digital Sponsorship TV Sponsorship Paid Search TV
Promotions Base Sales
58
Source: Vahine MMM 2021
Incremental sales from media activities has increased recently, with TV yielding more
volume than other channels
Baking Aid
600000
Volume Uplift(‘000 KG)
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1
2 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 20 1 2 0 1 20 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 20 1 2 0 1 20 1 20 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 20 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 20 1 2 0 1 20 1 20 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 2 20 2 20 2 2 0 2 20 2 2 0 2 2 0 2 2 0 2 2 0 2 20 2 2 0 2 2 0 2 2 0 2 2 0 2 20 2 20 2 2 0 2
/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /
/5 /3 31 28 25 25 22 20 17 15 12 9/9 0/7 1/4 2/2 /30 /27 /24 /24 /21 /19 /16 /14 /11 9/8 0/6 1/3 2/1 /29 /26 /23 /22 /19 /17 /14 /12 8/9 9/6 0/4 1/1 /29 /27 /24 /21 /21 /18
1 1 12 1 2 / 1 / 2/ 3 / 4/ 5/ 6/ 7/ 8 / 1 1 1 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1 1 1 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 1 1 1 12 1 2 3 4
Organic Influencers Website Traffic DOOH BVOD Display Influencers Online Video Paid Social Digital Sponsorship TV Sponsorship Paid Search TV
Promotions Base Sales
59
Source: Vahine MMM 2021
Incremental sales from media activities has increased recently, with TV yielding more
volume than other channels
Sugar & Yeasts
35000
Volume Uplift(‘000 KG)
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1
2 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 20 1 2 0 1 20 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 20 1 2 0 1 20 1 20 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 20 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 20 1 2 0 1 20 1 20 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 2 20 2 20 2 2 0 2 20 2 2 0 2 2 0 2 2 0 2 2 0 2 20 2 2 0 2 2 0 2 2 0 2 2 0 2 20 2 20 2 2 0 2
/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /
/5 /3 31 28 25 25 22 20 17 15 12 9/9 0/7 1/4 2/2 /30 /27 /24 /24 /21 /19 /16 /14 /11 9/8 0/6 1/3 2/1 /29 /26 /23 /22 /19 /17 /14 /12 8/9 9/6 0/4 1/1 /29 /27 /24 /21 /21 /18
1 1 12 1 2 / 1 / 2/ 3 / 4/ 5/ 6/ 7/ 8 / 1 1 1 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1 1 1 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 1 1 1 12 1 2 3 4
Organic Influencers Website Traffic DOOH BVOD Display Influencers Online Video Paid Social Digital Sponsorship TV Sponsorship Paid Search TV
Promotions Base Sales
60
Source: Vahine MMM 2021
Incremental sales from media activities has increased recently, with TV yielding more
volume than other channels
Dessert Mixes
80000
Volume Uplift(‘000 KG)
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1
2 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 20 1 2 0 1 20 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 20 1 2 0 1 20 1 20 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 20 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 20 1 2 0 1 20 1 20 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 2 20 2 20 2 2 0 2 20 2 2 0 2 2 0 2 2 0 2 2 0 2 20 2 2 0 2 2 0 2 2 0 2 2 0 2 20 2 20 2 2 0 2
/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /
/5 /3 31 28 25 25 22 20 17 15 12 9/9 0/7 1/4 2/2 /30 /27 /24 /24 /21 /19 /16 /14 /11 9/8 0/6 1/3 2/1 /29 /26 /23 /22 /19 /17 /14 /12 8/9 9/6 0/4 1/1 /29 /27 /24 /21 /21 /18
1 1 12 1 2 / 1 / 2/ 3 / 4/ 5/ 6/ 7/ 8 / 1 1 1 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1 1 1 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 1 1 1 12 1 2 3 4
Organic Influencers Website Traffic DOOH BVOD Display Influencers Online Video Paid Social Digital Sponsorship TV Sponsorship Paid Search TV
Promotions Base Sales
61
Source: Vahine MMM 2021
Media Planning Optimizer & Simulator
62
Developed media planning simulator & optimizer, to enable the team to plan for future marketing
investments
63
Agenda
64
Not updated
Key Learnings
• Absence of seasonal TV campaigns in 2020, one of • Heavy execution of Vanilla Gold on Paid Social
the important factor for lower ROI compared to YA impacted channel efficiency
• Effective execution of PLP copy in May-Jun sustained • Being Always-On and use of generic search worked
TV effectiveness vs seasonal campaigns in the for Paid Search; Solely generic campaigns generated
previous years, however, relatively high cost per GRP higher returns
impacted the efficiency • Returns from influencers improving steadily; Roxanne
performance improved in 2020 vs previous years
65
Not updated
Recommendations for channels
TV PAID SEARCH
• Continue investing in the channel;
• Invest more in TV; Current impact of TV is not
yet saturated; Investment in TV can go up to $ • Continue with the current strategy of being
2M (subject to availability of budget) Always On
• Plan to keep TV continuous with seasonal • Focus on generic search campaigns over
executions; Q1, Sep- Nov are recommended branded search as they are more effective
period to execute TV campaign that will ensure than latter despite the higher cost
higher returns
• If planning to launch a new copy, have bursts
starting with 30/20 sec to build brand equity, ONLINE VIDEO
followed by 10 sec to cost-efficiently maintain
• Continue investing in the channel as it
the campaign over a longer period
Key Recommendations supports the brand by offering reach beyond
by Channel TV.
• Though 6s video lengths are efficient, focus
PAID SOCIAL
on longer duration to lead a new campaign
• Avoid higher execution of same campaign to build the story and continue with 6s copy
on the same vendor to avoid the drop in to maintain the campaign
efficiency • Can consider alternative video lengths such
• Prefer the strategy with the mix of different as the 20s against 51s to build campaign
campaigns across different vendors story, which can also support campaign’s
efficiency
• Can consider Pinterest as a part of social
media strategy while keeping an eye on its PARTNERSHIPS/
cost DISPLAY
INFLUENCERS
• Strategic investment channel as it can
• Dig. Partnerships has delivered strong ROIs ensure high vol uplift with high ROI; Scope
in FY20; can be considered as one of the to invest up to $300 K
avenues of reaching the consumers
66
• Identify assets that guarantee wider
• Continue investing in influencers audience coverage
THANK YOU
Appendix
68
MMM seeks to quantify the effect of changes in key drivers on McCormick's brand volume by
using Bayesian Econometric model
A statistical approach where key business drivers are regressed with brand’s volume using Bayesian Regression technique
StatisticalModel
Statistical Model Drivers
Drivers
McCormick Brand
McCormick Brand
Volume =f
Volume COVID 19
COVID 19 (Google’s
(Google’s Community
Community
β Environmental
Environmental Mobility Report
Mobility Report ))
X
Equation: Category Seasonality
Category Seasonality
β Calendar
Calendar Holidays
Holidays
Log(volume) = + .Log(Price) + .Log (Distribution) + .Log(C Marketing + residual.…. X
TV&& Digital
TV Digital
Competitors
& Competitors
β Media
Media Events
Events
Marketing
Marketing
Sponsorships
Sponsorships
X
Discounts
Discounts
Brands &
β Promotions
Promotions Consumer && Retail
Retail promos
promos
McCormick Brands
Consumer
X
For McCormick
β Price
Price Consumer Pricing
Consumer Pricing
Commercial
Commercial
Execution
Execution
X
Distribution
Distribution
For
β Distribution
Distribution ## of
of SKUs
SKUs per
per Store
Store
X Out of
Out of Stocks
Stocks
Macro GDP & Unemployment Monthly Federal Reserve Economic Data Insignificant in recent period due to high correlation with the
environment variable
Google COVID Community Mobility Data at Workspaces Weekly Google % Change in # of visitors to workspaces compared to the
normal average
Environmental
Google & Ministry websites on official
Pre-COVID Lockdown Events Variable Weekly dates of lockdowns Binary Variable to account for pre-stock up before lockdown
Google COVID Community Mobility variable at workspaces were found to have strong correlation to brand as well as category sales.
The variable tells the % change in # of visitors to the workspaces on a given week from the normal average, highlighting less workforce working
from office, and hence, more cooking at home
To account for peak of sales pre-lockdown a binary variable ‘Covid stock up’ is used which is determined by dates when nationwide lockdown was
implemented. The dates were confirmed from the respective geography's government website
To summarize, the Covid Stock up variable accounted for pre-lock down surge in sales and the Google Covid mobility @ workspace variable for the
ongoing weekly trends on Covid as a significant increase in the work force worked from home.
71
In order to capture impact of COVID on sales, Google’s COVID community mobility data at
workspaces is used…
1 Other independent variable (Own
Identified key dates when nation-wide Price, Distribution, Competition,
lockdown was implemented Media, etc.) tested in the model
Tested in the 3
1 2
Using the key lockdown dates analyzed the variable in the • Relationship of sales with mobility data
relationship of Google’s COVID Community model was established with significance
Mobility Data at Workspaces with brand sales MODELING ENGINE confirming the hypothesis
% ch a n g e fr o m N o r m a l T im e s
1
B r a n d V o lu m e S a le s
28th Feb
30th October Third set of
second national regional &
lockdown begins 16th Jan national
Curfew hours lockdowns
extended nationally 3rd May
17th October
to between 6pm to Progressive
600 Introduction of
6am lifting of
local curfews and
second national lockdown
500 lockdown restrictions
Volume Sales (‘000 KGs)
400
300
200
100
0
020 020 020 020 020 020 02
0 020 020 020 020 02
0 020 02
0
02
0
02
0
02
0 021 021 02
1 021 02
1 021 02
1 021 02
1
/ 17/ 2 / 31/ 2 / 14/ 2 / 28/ 2 / 12/ 2 / 26/ 2 8/ 9/ 2 / 23/ 2 9/ 6/ 2 / 20/ 2 0/ 4/ 2 / 18/ 2 1/ 1/ 2 / 15/ 2 / 29/ 2 / 13/ 2 / 27/ 2 / 10/ 2 / 24/ 2 2/ 7/ 2 / 21/ 2 3/ 7/ 2 / 21/ 2 4/ 4/2 / 18/ 2 5/ 2/ 2
5 5 6 6 7 7 8 9 1 10 1 11 11 12 12 1 1 2 3 4
28th Feb
30th October Third set of
second national regional &
lockdown begins 16th Jan national
Curfew hours lockdowns
extended nationally 3rd May
17th October
to between 6pm to Progressive
Introduction of
6am lifting of
local curfews and
second national lockdown
lockdown restrictions
Baking
Aid
Sugar
&
Yeast
Dessert
Mixes
020 020 020 020 020 020 02
0 020 020 020 020 02
0 020 02
0
02
0
02
0
02
0 021 021 02
1 021 02
1 021 02
1 021 02
1
/ 17/ 2 / 31/ 2 / 14/ 2 / 28/ 2 / 12/ 2 / 26/ 2 8/ 9/ 2 / 23/ 2 9/ 6/ 2 / 20/ 2 0/ 4/ 2 / 18/ 2 1/ 1/ 2 / 15/ 2 / 29/ 2 / 13/ 2 / 27/ 2 / 10/ 2 / 24/ 2 2/ 7/ 2 / 21/ 2 3/ 7/ 2 / 21/ 2 4/ 4/2 / 18/ 2 5/ 2/ 2
5 5 6 6 7 7 8 9 1 10 1 11 11 12 12 1 1 2 3 4
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
10/22/2017
11/12/2017
12/3/2017
12/24/2017
1/14/2018
2/4/2018
2/25/2018
3/18/2018
4/8/2018
4/29/2018
5/20/2018
6/10/2018
7/1/2018
7/22/2018
8/12/2018
9/2/2018
9/23/2018
10/14/2018
11/4/2018
Model Fit – Vahine Baking Aid
11/25/2018
12/16/2018
1/6/2019
1/27/2019
2/17/2019
3/10/2019
MAPE
3/31/2019
R SQUARE
4/21/2019
5/12/2019
6/2/2019
6/23/2019
7/14/2019
8/4/2019
8/25/2019
9/15/2019
10/6/2019
10/27/2019
Error
11/17/2019
83%
6.0%
12/8/2019
12/29/2019
1/19/2020
2/9/2020
3/1/2020
3/22/2020
4/12/2020
5/3/2020
5/24/2020
75
6/14/2020
7/5/2020
Actual Volume (KGs)
7/26/2020
8/16/2020
9/6/2020
9/27/2020
10/18/2020
11/8/2020
11/29/2020
12/20/2020
1/10/2021
1/31/2021
2/21/2021
3/14/2021
4/4/2021
Predicted Volume (KGs)
4/25/2021
76
Volume (in ‘000 KGs)
-5
-10
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
10/22/2017
11/12/2017
12/3/2017
12/24/2017
1/14/2018
2/4/2018
2/25/2018
3/18/2018
4/8/2018
4/29/2018
5/20/2018
6/10/2018
7/1/2018
7/22/2018
8/12/2018
9/2/2018
9/23/2018
10/14/2018
11/4/2018
11/25/2018
12/16/2018
1/6/2019
Model Fit – Vahine Sugar and Yeast
1/27/2019
2/17/2019
3/10/2019
MAPE
3/31/2019
R SQUARE
4/21/2019
5/12/2019
6/2/2019
6/23/2019
7/14/2019
8/4/2019
8/25/2019
9/15/2019
10/6/2019
10/27/2019
Error
11/17/2019
91%
7.2%
12/8/2019
12/29/2019
1/19/2020
2/9/2020
3/1/2020
3/22/2020
4/12/2020
5/3/2020
5/24/2020
6/14/2020
7/5/2020
Actual Volume (KGs)
7/26/2020
8/16/2020
9/6/2020
9/27/2020
10/18/2020
11/8/2020
11/29/2020
12/20/2020
1/10/2021
1/31/2021
2/21/2021
3/14/2021
4/4/2021
Predicted Volume (KGs)
4/25/2021
77
Volume (in ‘000 KGs)
-20
20
40
60
80
0
100
10/22...
11/12...
12/3/...
12/24...
1/14/...
2/4/...
2/25/...
3/18/...
4/8/...
4/29/...
5/20/...
6/10/...
7/1/...
7/22/...
8/12/...
9/2/...
9/23/...
10/14...
11/4/...
11/25...
Model Fit – Vahine Dessert mixes
12/16...
1/6/...
1/27/...
2/17/...
3/10/...
MAPE
3/31/...
R SQUARE
4/21/...
5/12/...
6/2/...
6/23/...
7/14/...
8/4/...
8/25/...
9/15/...
10/6/...
10/27...
Error
11/17...
98%
8.6%
12/8/...
12/29...
1/19/...
2/9/...
3/1/...
3/22/...
4/12/...
5/3/...
5/24/...
6/14/...
7/5/...
Actual Volume (KGs)
7/26/...
8/16/...
9/6/...
9/27/...
10/18...
11/8/...
11/29...
12/20...
1/10/...
1/31/...
2/21/...
3/14/...
4/4/...
Predicted Volume (KGs)
4/25/...