Professional Documents
Culture Documents
July 2, 2021
1
Agenda
2
Agenda
3
Scope of the study
ROI:
• FY 2018: Dec 2017 – Nov 2018
• FY 2019: Dec 2018 – Nov 2019
• FY 2020: Dec 2019 – Nov 2020
• YTD 2020: Dec 2019 – Apr 2020
• YTD 2020: Dec 2020 – Apr 2021
- Impact of change in own price & distribution, competition activity on sales, the elasticity of own price
What is the optimal budget allocation across TV and Digital channels to improve response from media?
5
Agenda
6
Recap of Ducros performance: Ducros witnessed growth in mat 2021 driven by growth
across all sectors
7
Source: Nielsen
Increased consumption due to coronavirus restrictions and stay at home measures,
supported by increased marketing efforts drove volume growth of 11.1%
TOTAL DUCROS | DRIVERS OF VOLUME (‘000 KG) CHANGE | MAT 2021 vs MAT 2020
Volume:
Environment Price Distribution Marketing Competition Residual
11.1%
5.3% 0.6% 0.4% 5.8% 0.3% 0.6%
Value:
11.8%
2K
8K 5K 2K 13 K 4K 15 K
7K 10 K 2K 146 K
140 K
2,751 K 2,745 K 2,735 K 2,743 K 2,745 K 2,750 K 2,896 K 2,894 K 2,882 K 2,883 K 2,887 K 2,902 K
2,612 K 2,612 K
(5.3%) (0.3%) (0.4%) (0.3%) (0.1%) (0.2%) (5.6%) (0.1%) (0.5%) (0.1%) (0.2%) (0.6%)
MAT 2020 COVID-19 Own Price Comp Price Own IPS Own %ACV Own Promo Own Media IPS %ACV Promo Media Residual MAT 2021
Base
Key Takeaways:
1. Restrictions and stay at home measures 2. Supportive marketing sustained the 3. Limited support from Own Execution
due to Coronavirus Pandemic drove most growth
of the growth • Increased distribution support in all
• Total Ducros media investment increased sectors impacted the sales positively by
by 339% ($ 1.7 M to $ 7.6M) 0.4%
Lockdown restrictions and stay at home
measures lead to 5.3% growth • Increased promotions with deeper • Herbs, Spices and seasoning
discounts across sectors helped the experienced increase in their mix price
growth of promo volume resulting in 0.6% volume decline
12 MAT 2020: May 2019 – Apr 2020; MAT 2021: May 2020 – Apr 2021
Source: Ducros MMM 2021
Ducros has an overall price elasticity of (1.08); Herbs more elastic than rest of the sectors
TOTAL
PEPPER HERBS SPICES SEASONING
DUCROS
(0.95)
(1.08) (1.13) (1.09)
(1.19)
13
Source: Ducros MMM 2021
Ducros incremental activities contributes ~13% to total sales driven by ~6% from promotions
and ~7% from media
BASE AND INCREMENTAL CONTRIBUTION TO TOTAL VOLUME | BY SECTOR
Total Ducros Pepper Herbs Spices Seasoning
(% vol. chng vs
+1.5% +11.1% +1.5% +5.7% +0.9% +7.7% +2.5% +23.5% +0.6% +12.7%
PP)
MAT' 19 MAT' 20 MAT' 21 MAT' 19 MAT' 20 MAT' 21 MAT' 19 MAT' 20 MAT' 21 MAT' 19 MAT' 20 MAT' 21 MAT' 19 MAT' 20 MAT' 21
Base Volume 2,357 2,410 2,528 835 845 855 765 788 804 525 543 624 233 234 246
Promo Volume 165 157 177 36 42 42 75 64 68 48 46 59 5 5 8
Media
14 Volume 53 45 197 19 16 58 18 14 61 11 9 57 5 5 21
MAT 2019: May 2018 – Apr 2019 ;MAT 2020: May 2019 – Apr 2020; MAT 2021: May 2020 – Apr 2021
Source: Ducros MMM 2021
Agenda
15
Topline Media Summary
16
Overall ROI reduced in YTD 2021 due to investments in TV Xmas campaign; However
digital channels delivered higher RROI in YTD 2021 in comparison to YTD 2020
FY FY FY YTD YTD
FY ... FY ... FY 20 YTD ... YTD ... $0.52 ... ... ... ... ...
$0.41 $0.41
$0.36
$0.26 $0.29 $0.25 $0.26 $0.24 $0.21 $0.25
$0.16 $0.17 $0.14
Profit ROI $0.06
$1.33
$0.93
$0.91 $0.68 $0.77 $0.72
Revenue ROI $0.66
$0.82 $0.70 $0.47 $0.47 $0.46 $0.56
(ST)
FY FY FY YTD YTD FY FY FY YTD YTD FY FY FY YTD YTD
FY ... FY ... FY ... YTD YTD ... 18 19 20 20 21 18 19 20 20 21 18 19 20
$0.39 20 21
$0.27 $0.22
$0.18 $0.22
$0.26 $0.24 $0.14 $0.13 $0.17
$0.17 $0.21 $0.12
Profit ROI
(ST) FY FY FY YTD YTD FY FY FY YTD YTD FY FY FY YTD YTD
FY ... FY ... FY ... YTD YTD ... 18 19 20 20 21 18 19 20 20 21 18 19 20 20 21
*Cost($): Cost/ GRPs for TV, Cost/MM Imps for BVOD
18 FY 2018: Dec 2017 – Nov 2018; FY 2019: Dec 2018 – Nov 2019; FY 2020: Dec 2019 – Nov 2020 ,YTD 2020: Dec 2019 – Apr 2020, YTD 2021: Dec 2020 – Apr 2021
ST : Short Term Impact
Source: Ducros MMM 2021
Total Digital RROI improved in YTD 2020 vs FY 2019 driven by strong performance from
Paid Social, Display and Online Video
PERFORMANCE ACROSS DIGITAL CHANNELS
Cost (K $)
3
$2.8 $5.7 $5.3 $5.4 $5.2 $11.1 $9.4 $3.1 $3.3 $2.2 $1.6 $1.8 $9.5 $10.5 $2.5 $3.3 $6.2 $386 $350 $685 $403 $300
2,439
K
1,435
K
2
Inc. Revenue
(K $) 250 K374 K
824 K
15 K
942 K736 K
95 K
433 K
62 K 55 K 149 K200 K
739 K
501 K578 K
64 K 78 K 254 K110 K 42 K 49 K 46 K 20 K 37 K
K 25 K 6K 55 K
$2.9
FY FY FY YTD YTD FY FY FY YTD YTD FY FY FY YTD YTD FY FY FY YTD YTD FY FY FY YTD YTD FY FY FY YTD YTD FY FY FY YTD YTD
19 *Cost(K$): Cost/MM Imps for Online Video, Display, Dig Sponsorship, Paid Social, DOOH; Cost/’000 clicks for Paid Search
FY 2018: Dec 2017 – Nov 2018; FY 2019: Dec 2018 – Nov 2019; FY 2020: Dec 2019 – Nov 2020 ,YTD 2020: Dec 2019 – Apr 2020, YTD 2021: Dec 2020 – Apr 2021
ST : Short Term Impact
Source: Ducros MMM 2021
TV & Sponsorship among TV & TV Associates and Paid Social, OLV, Sponsorship & Display
among digital channels –key media driver of sales in long-term
LONG TERM REVENUE ROI ACROSS MEDIA CHANNELS
TV Digital
TV VOD Sponsorship Online Video Sponsorship Paid Social Display Paid Search
€ 3.97
Long Term
Revenue € 3.03 € 3.04
€ 2.84 € 2.88 € 2.90
ROI
€ 2.41 € 2.50
€ 1.90 € 1.90
€ 1.75
€ 1.54
€ 1.32
€ 1.10
Short Term € 0.97
Revenue £1.57 £1.69 € 0.66
£1.45 £1.42
ROI £1.16
£0.77
£0.46 £0.28
FY 2020 Global FY 2020 Global FY 2020 Global FY 2020 Global FY 2020 Global FY 2020 Global FY 2020 Global FY 2020 Global
Bench... Bench... Bench... Bench... Bench... Bench... Bench... Bench...
TV Digital
TV VOD Sponsorship Online Video Sponsorship Paid Social Display Paid Search
Long Term
Profit
ROI
€ 1.15
22
TV campaign laydown (Nov 2017 – Apr 2021)
150
100
Spring Sponsorship
50
Tous en Cuisine
0
24
Source: Publicis Kitchen
Xmas 2020, Q1 2021 and Spring 2021 campaigns were more effective than 2019 and 2020
campaigns
TV
Spring BBQ
Feel TV 2018 Feel TV 2019 2020 BBQ 2020 Autumn Xmas 2020 Q1 2021 2021 Spring
Sponsr’shp Sponsr’shp
(PLP : Turmeric) (PLP : Turmeric (Tous en Cuisine) (Astuces de Chef)
& Herbs)
$1.5
$1.2
$0.9 $0.8 $0.7 $0.7 8
$0.6 $0.7 $0.6 9
0 5 2 5 4 2 8
Revenue ROI (ST)
Feel TV 2018 Feel TV 2019 BBQ 2020 Autumn 2020 Xmas 2020 Q1 2021 Spring 2021 Tous en Cuisine 2020 BBQ Astuces de Chef Prog Court 2020
$0.4
$0.3
$0.2 $0.2 $0.2 6
$0.1 $0.2 $0.2 $0.2 7
6 4 2 2 2 1
Profit ROI 7
(ST)
Feel TV 2018 Feel TV 2019 BBQ 2020 Autumn 2020 Xmas 2020 Q1 2021 Spring 2021 Tous en Cuisine 2020 BBQ As tuces de Chef Prog Court 2020
$1,8 $1,5
$1,1 $1,4
09 36 $1,0
60 $80
67 $46 39
9 $12 $16
5 8
Investment 9
(K $) Feel TV 2018 Feel TV 2019 BBQ 2020 Autumn 2020 Xmas 2020 Q1 2021 Spring 2021 Tous en Cuisine 2020 BBQ Astuces de Chef Prog Court 2020
(GRPs) (1,332) (863) (507) (1,027) (842) (572) (647) (121) (220)
25
ST : Short Term Impact
Source: Ducros MMM 2021
TV campaigns ‘With Tag-On’ were more effective as well as efficient than campaigns
‘Without Tag-On’
With Tag-On Vs Without Tag-On
FY 2020 & YTD 2021 INVESTMENT SUMMARY (K $) PERFORMANCE OF WITH TAG-ON VS WITHOUT TAG-ON(FY 2020 & YTD 2021)
1
1 0.76
0.72
1
1
1
0
Revenue ROI
[CELLRANGE], 0 (ST)
$2,001 0
[CELLRANGE 0
], $3,307 0
With Tag-On Without Tag-On
Effectiveness
(Inc. Rev/ GRP in $ ) 1.1 K 1.0 K
26 *With Tag-On campaigns include: 2020 Xmas(Cinnamon), 2021 Q1(Turmeric Copy + Promo Tag), 2021_Q2_Spring(Turmeric copy + Pepper Tag)
ST : Short Term Impact
Source: Ducro MMM 2021
Scope of improving efficiency by limiting TV investment to $ 3.0 M
TV
4.0%
2,000 K
3.5% 1,800 K
3.0%
MAT'21:5,308K 1,600 K
1,400 K
2.5%
1,200 K
Profit ($)
2.0% 1,000 K
1.5% 800 K
600 K
1.0%
400 K
0.5% 200 K
0K
0.0% 0K 1,000 K 2,000 K 3,000 K 4,000 K 5,000 K 6,000 K 7,000 K 8,000 K
0K 2,000 K 4,000 K 6,000 K 8,000 K 10,000 K 12,000 K 14,000 K 16,000 K
27
Source: Ducros MMM 2021
Investment in TV Sponsorship not yet saturated; Scope to increase investment in the
channel, however, it is not advisable to go beyond $827K
TV Sponsorship
1.6%
OPTIMAL: [X
1.4% VALUE]
200 K
1.2%
1.0% 150 K
MAT'21: 296K
Profit ($)
0.8%
100 K
0.6%
0.4% 50 K
0.2% MAT'21:296K
0K
0.0% 0K 500 K
0K 1,000 K 2,000 K 3,000 K 4,000 K 5,000 K 6,000 K 7,000 K 8,000 K 9,000 K 10,000 K
28
Source: Ducros MMM 2021
20s and 30s copy have comparable effectiveness and ROIs
DUCROS – TV BY COPY DURATION (NOV 2017 – APR 2021)
2020 Autumn
200 2021 Spring
2020 BBQ 2020 Xmas
2020 Q1
150
GRPs
100
50
20 seconds 30 seconds
$0.7 $0.7
8 2
Revenue ROI
(ST)
$0.2
All y... $0.2
All y...
3 1
Profit ROI
(ST)
All y...
1,57 All y...
1,44
2 2
Cost/ GRP
($)
All1,22
years All1,03
years
4 4
Effectiveness
(Inc. Rev/ GRP
in $) All years All years
29
ST : Short Term Impact
Source: Ducros MMM 2021
Continuity is the key for Ducros TV as it ensures longer retention with reduced efforts; Jan/
Feb, Autumn, and Xmas seasons have reported higher response from TV compared to other
bursts
TV
GRPs
100 60
40
50
20
0 0
By assuming 100 GRPs invested in TV for each season, ROI from only TV has been compared by using same average across seasons
30
ST : Short Term Impact; LT: Long Term Impact
Source: Ducros MMM 2021
VOD campaign laydown (Nov 2017 – Apr 2021)
3,000,000.0 DUCROS –VOD & VOD SPONSORSHIP (NOV 2017 – APR 2021)
2,000,000.0
2021 Q1
1,500,000.0 2020 Xmas
31
Source: Publicis Kitchen
Campaigns of YTD 2021 were both effective as well as efficient in comparison to campaigns
of 2020
BVOD
Feel TV Feel TV BBQ Autumn Xmas Q1 Consumer Spring Spring
2018 2019 2020 2020 2020 Promo 2019 2021 Sponsorship
$0.1 $0.1
$0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.1
9 8
4 2 4 3 4 $0.0
Profit ROI (ST) 5
Feel TV 2018 Feel TV 2019 BBQ 2020 Autumn 2020 Xmas Feel TV 2020 Q1 Feel TV Consumer 2021 Spring Feel TV 2021 Tous en Cuisine
$1 $1
$9 54 52 $9 $7 $9
3 $4 5 4 $3
Investment 4
0 0
(K $) Feel TV 2018 Feel TV 2019 BBQ 2020 Autumn 2020 Xmas Feel TV 2020 Q1 Feel TV Consumer 2021 Spring Feel TV 2021 Tous en Cuisine
(Imps) (5.9 M) (12.4 M) (2.6 M) (11.7 M) (6.7 M Imps) (5.1 M Imps) (6.3 M Imps) (0.6 M Imps)
48.2
K
15.7 12.4 15.2 13.1 14.1 14.5 14.9
K K K K K K K
Cost/ Activity ($) Feel TV 2018 Feel TV 2019 BBQ 2020 Autumn 2020 Xmas Feel TV 2020 Q1 Feel TV Cons umer 2021 Spring Feel TV 2021 Tous en Cuisine
7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 8.
5. 5.
4 1 9 5 1 2
8 9
Effectiveness K K K K
K K K K
(Inc. Rev/ Activity in $)
Feel TV 2018 Feel TV 2019 BBQ 2020 Autumn 2020 Xmas Feel TV 2020 Q1 Feel TV Consumer 2021 Spring Feel TV 2021 Tous en Cuisine
VOD
0.4% OPTIMAL:
20 K 326K
18 K
0.3%
16 K
MAT'21:454K
0.3% 14 K
12 K
0.2%
Profit ($)
10 K
0.2% 8K
6K
0.1%
4K
0.1% 2K
0K
0.0% 0K 20 K 40 K 60 K 80 K 100 K 120 K
0K 200 K 400 K 600 K 800 K 1,000 K 1,200 K 1,400 K
33
Source: Ducros MMM 2021
Social campaign laydown (Nov 2017 – Apr 2021)
2021 Q1
30000000 Pepper Grinder
25000000 Pre-Launch
20000000
2021 Q1
15000000
Consumer Promotion
10000000
5000000
0
2021 Q1
30000000 Facebook/Instagram
25000000
20000000 2021 Spring
BBQ
15000000 Facebook/
Facebook/Instagram 2021 Xmas
10000000 Instagram
Pinterest Facebook/Instagram
5000000
0
11 12 12 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ 6/ 7/ 8/ 9/ 10 11 12 12 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ 6/ 7/ 8/ 9/ 10 11 12 12 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ 6/ 7/ 8/ 9/ 10 11 11 12 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/
34
Source: Publicis Kitchen
Xmas 2020 onwards campaigns generated high effectiveness with Q1 2021 delivering
highest ROIs; High cost pulled down the ROI for Spring 2021 in comparison to Spring 2020
$1.1 $1.0
$0.5 $0.6 $0.6 0 3 $0.5
$0.3 0 $0.3 $0.3 1 8
6
6 5 3
Profit ROI (ST)
20 18 20 19 Du c ro s _ 2 0 2 0 _ Q2 _ S p rin g Du c ro s _ 20 20 _Q 3_ BB Q Du c ro s _ 20 20 _ Q4 _ A u tu mn _ Ma s te rb ra nd Du c ro s _ 2 0 2 0 _ X ma s Du c ro s _ 2 0 2 1 _ Q1 _ Co n s u me rP ro mo tio n Du c ro s _ 20 21 _Q 1_ Pe pp erG rin d erP re L au nc h 2 0 2 1 S p rin g
$23
$14 9 $13
6 5
$79 $63 $48 $72 $44 $36
Investment
(K $) 20 18 2019 Du c ro s _ 2 0 2 0 _ Q2 _ Sp rin g Du c ro s _ 2 0 2 0 _ Q 3 _ B BQ D u c ro s _ 2 0 2 0 _ Q 4 _ A u tu mn _ Ma s te rb ra n d Du c ro s _ 2 0 2 0 _ X ma s Du c ro s _ 2 0 2 1 _ Q1 _ Co n s u me rP ro mo tio n Du c ro s _ 2 0 2 1 _ Q1 _ P e p p e rGrin d e rP re L a u n c h 2 0 2 1 S p rin g
(Imps) (25.9 M) (43.5 M) (151.1 M) (36.6 M) (10.6 M) (13.9 M) (58.3 M) (26.1 M) (11.4 M)
6.0
3.0 3.4 3.7 K 3.5 3.2
K K 1.6 K K 1.2 1.7 K
K K K
Cost/ MM Imps
($) 20 18 2019 Du c ro s _ 2 0 2 0 _ Q2 _ S p rin g Du c ro s _ 20 20 _Q 3_ B B Q Du c ro s _ 20 20 _Q 4_ A u tu mn _ Ma s te rb ra n d D uc ro s _2 0 2 0 _ X mas Du c ro s _ 20 21 _Q 1_ Co ns umerP ro motio n Du c ro s _ 2 02 1_ Q1 _P ep pe rGrin de rP re L a u n c h 2 02 1 S p rin g
FY 2020 & YTD 2021 PERFORMANCE ACROSS PAID SOCIAL VENDORS (FY 2020 & YTD 2021)
INVESTMENT SUMMARY (K USD)
3
2.13
2
[CELLRANGE]
, $55 2
1.22
1 Revenue ROI
(ST)
1
0
Facebook / Instagram Pinterest
MM Impressions 295 13
36
ST : Short Term Impact
Source: Ducros MMM 2021
Channel hasn’t reached saturation; Potential to increase investment in Paid Social up to
$1,034 K
Paid Social
2.0%
1,600 K
1,400 K
1.5%
1,200 K
MAT'21: 412 K
1.0% 1,000 K
Profit ($)
MAT'21:412K 800 K
0.5%
600 K
400 K
0.0%
0K 50 K 100 K 150 K 200 K 250 K 200 K
0K
-0.5% 0K 1,000 K 2,000 K 3,000 K
37
Source: Ducros MMM 2021
Online Video (YouTube) campaign laydown (Nov 2017 – Apr 2021)
2020 Spring
20000000 2020 Xmas (Accomplished Foodies,
Frugal Flavourfuls
Inspired Delighters)
15000000
MM Impressions
2020 BBQ
(Distracted Streamliners
10000000 Accomplished Foodies
Inspired Delighters)
5000000 2021 Q1
2020 Autumn
Consumer
Masterbrand 2021 Spring
Promotion
0
/ / / 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 9 / / / / 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 8 / / / / 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 9 6 / / / / 2 2 2 1
11 12 12 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ 6/ 7/ 8/ 9/ 10 11 12 12 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ 6/ 7/ 8/ 9/ 10 11 12 12 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ 6/ 7/ 8/ 9/ 10 11 11 12 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/
38
Source: Publicis Kitchen
2021 campaigns were both effective as well as efficient
Online Video
2019 Xmas 2020 Spring 2020 BBQ 2020 Autumn 2021 Q1 2021 Spring
$0.4
$0.3 $0.3
$0.2 $0.2 $0.2 6
9 5
8 5 5
Profit ROI (ST)
X ma s 2 01 9 Sp rin g 2 0 2 0 B B Q2 0 2 0 A utu mn 20 20 Q 1 2 02 1 S p rin g 2 0 2 1
$43
7
$17 $20
0 0
Investment $46 $24 $44
(K $) X ma s 2 0 1 9 S p rin g 2 0 2 0 B B Q2 0 2 0 Au tu mn 2 02 0 Q 1 2 02 1 S p rin g 2 0 2 1
9.0
6.6 K 7.0
4.2 5.4 4.8
K K
K K K
Cost/ MM Imps
($) X ma s 2 0 1 9 S p rin g 2 0 2 0 B B Q2 0 2 0 Au tu mn 2 02 0 Q 1 2 02 1 S p rin g 2 0 2 1
15000000
10000000
5000000
All y... All y... All y... All y... All y...
$0.
$0. $0. $0. $0.
37 33 41 24 45
Profit ROI (ST)
All y... All6.9y... All y... All7.5y... All y...
6.0 4.6 4.3
K K K
Cost/ MM Imps
K K
($)
All7.6
y... All8.0
y... All6.4
y... All6.3
y... All6.4
y...
Effectiveness K K K K K
(Inc. Rev/ MM Imps
in $)
40 All y... All y... All y... All y... All y...
ST : Short Term Impact
Source: Ducros MMM 2021
Opportunity to increase investment in Online Video up to $ 1306 K
Online Video
2.0%
900 K OPTIMAL: [X
1.8% VALUE]
800 K
1.6%
700 K
1.4%
600 K
1.2%
Profit ($)
500 K
1.0% MAT'21: 403K
400 K
0.8%
300 K
0.6%
200 K
0.4% MAT’21: 403K
100 K
0.2%
0K
0.0% 0K 500 K 1,000 K 1,500 K 2,000 K 2,500 K 3,000 K 3,500 K
0K 1,000 K 2,000 K 3,000 K 4,000 K 5,000 K 6,000 K 7,000 K
41
Source: Ducros MMM 2021
Display campaign laydown (Nov 2017 – Apr 2021)
6000000 2018 Q1 2018 BBQ 2018 Xmas 2019 Spring 2020 Spring 2020 BBQ
5000000
MM Impressions
2020 Autumn
4000000 (15 min Meal Makers
Taste Explorers)
3000000
2000000
2021 Q1
2021 Spring
1000000 Consumer Promotion
0
/ / / 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 9 / / / / 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 8 / / / / 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 9 6 / / / / 2 2 2 1
11 12 12 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ 6/ 7/ 8/ 9/ 10 11 12 12 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ 6/ 7/ 8/ 9/ 10 11 12 12 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ 6/ 7/ 8/ 9/ 10 11 11 12 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/
42
Source: Publicis Kitchen
2021 campaigns have high effectiveness; High cost of 'Q1 2021 Consumer Promotion'
campaign pulled down the ROI
$0.6 $0.6
$0.3 $0.3 $0.3 $0.3 4 $0.3 2
$0.1 6 6 $0.0 7 6 9
1 8
Profit ROI (ST) Q1 2 0 1 8 B B Q2 0 1 8 X MA S2 01 8 S prin g 2 01 9 S prin g 2 02 0 B B Q2 0 2 0 A u tu mn 2 0 2 0 Q1 2 0 2 1 S p rin g P e p p e rGrin d e rL a u n c h 2 0 2 1
€ 72 € 87
€ 60
€ 32 € 39 € 41 € 32 € 24
€5
Investment Q1 2 0 1 8 BB Q2 0 1 8 XMAS 2 0 1 8 Sp rin g 2 0 1 9 Sp rin g 2 0 2 0 BB Q2 0 2 0 Au tu mn 2 0 2 0 Q1 2 0 2 1 S p rin g P e p p e rGrin d e rL a u n c h 2 0 2 1
(K $)
(Imps) (1.4 M) (5.1 M) (8.4 M) (3.6 M) (26.3 M) (27.7 M) (16.6 M) (3.4 M) (1.3 M)
23.4 20.3
K K
7.7 4.9 7.0 4.1
3.3 2.2 1.9
Cost/ MM Imps K K K K
K K
K
($) D uc ro s _2 01 8_ Q1 _P ep pe r Du c ro s _ 2 0 1 8 _Q 3_ B B Q Du c ro s _ 20 18 _X ma s Du c ro s _ 2 0 1 9 _ Q2 _ S p rin g _ Mo z o o & Cu is in e Du c ro s _ 2 0 2 0 _ Q2 _ S p rin g Du c ro s _ 2 0 2 0 _ Q3 _ B B Q Du c ro s _ 2 0 2 0 _ Q4 _ A u tu mn _ Ma s te rb ra n d Du c ro s _ 2 0 2 1 _ Q1 _ Co n s u me rP ro motio n Du c ro s _ 2 0 2 1 _ Q2 _ S p rin g _ P e p p e rGrin d e rL a u n c h
Display
0.80%
180 K
0.70%
160 K
0.60% 140 K
0.50% 120 K
Profit ($)
100 K
0.40%
80 K
MAT'21: 133K
0.30%
60 K
0.20% 40 K
0.10% 20 K
0K
0.00% 0K 20 K 40 K 60 K 80 K 100 K 120 K 140 K
0K 500 K 1,000 K 1,500 K 2,000 K 2,500 K 3,000 K 3,500 K
44
Source: Ducros MMM 2021
Paid Search campaign laydown (Nov 2017 – Apr 2021)
25000
‘000 Clicks
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
45
Source: Publicis Kitchen
Spring 2021 campaign has the highest ROI driven by high effectiveness and low cost of
execution
Paid Search 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 2021
Q1 Spring BBQ Autumn Xmas Q1 Spring BBQ Autumn Xmas Spring BBQ Autumn Xmas Q1 Spring
$0.6
$0.5 $0.4 $0.5
$0.3 $0.3 $0.3 $0.3 3
$0.2 $0.2 $0.1 $0.2 2 $0.1 5 2 $0.2
4 0 1 $0.1 8 $0.1
4 1 9 2 8 7
5 5
Revenue ROI (ST) Q1 2 0 1 8 Sp rin g 2 0 1 8 B BQ2 0 1 8 Au tu mn 2 0 1 8 Xma s 2 0 1 8 Q1 2 0 1 9 Sp rin g 2 0 1 9 B BQ2 0 1 9 Au tu mn 2 0 1 9 Xma s 2 0 1 9 S p rin g 2 0 2 0 BB Q2 0 2 0 Au tu mn 2 0 2 0 X ma s 2 0 2 0 Q1 2 0 2 1
$0.1
S p rin g 2 0 2 1
$0.1 $0.1 9
$0.1 6
$0.1 $0.0 $0.0 $0.1 5 3 $0.0
0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 0 $0.0
7 9 9 $0.0 $0.0 8
6 5 4 6 5 4
Profit ROI (ST) Q12 01 8 S p rin g 2 0 1 8 B B Q2 0 1 8 A u tu mn 2 0 1 8 Xma s 2 0 1 8 Q1 20 19 S p rin g 2 0 1 9 B B Q2 0 1 9 A u tu mn 2 0 1 9 X ma s 2 0 1 9 Sp rin g 2 0 2 0 B B Q2 0 2 0 Au tu mn 2 0 2 0 X ma s 2 0 2 0 Q1 2 0 2 1 S p rin g 2 0 2 1
$55. $47.
$38. 8 $43.
$26. $34. $34. 4 $28.
$19. $23. $24. $19. 7 $22. $19. 6
7 6 0 $12. $11. 5
9 3 6 5 2 6
7 7
Investment
(K $)
Q1 2 0 1 8 Sp rin g 20 18 BB Q2 0 1 8 A u tu mn 2 0 1 8 X ma s 2 0 1 8 Q1 20 19 S p rin g 2 0 1 9 BB Q2 01 9 A u tu mn 2 01 9 X ma s 2 0 1 9 S p rin g 2 0 2 0 B B Q2 0 2 0 A u tu mn 2 0 2 0 X ma s 2 02 0 Q 1 2 02 1 Sp rin g 2 0 2 1
(Clicks) (69.6 K) (55.9 K) (85.2 K) (59.8 K) (46.4 K) (34.8 K) (50.5 K) (99.9 K) (106.0 K) (86.5 K) (28.1 K) (39.9 K) (56.4 K) (150.7 K) (116.8 K) (131.4 K)
1,3
96
672 K
478 406 390 530 559 388 416 347 374
286 K 210 147 315 217
K K K K K K K
Cost/ Clicks K K K K K K K
($) Q1 2 0 1 8 Sp rin g 2 0 1 8 BB Q2 0 1 8 Au tu mn 2 0 1 8 Xma s 2 0 1 8 Q1 2 0 1 9 Sp rin g 2 0 1 9 BB Q2 0 1 9 Au tu mn 2 0 1 9 Xma s 2 0 1 9 Sp rin g 2 0 2 0 BBQ2 0 2 0 A u tu mn 2 0 2 0 Xma s 2 0 2 0 Q1 2 0 2 1 S p rin g 2 0 2 1
21 16
11 12 12 11 15 13
10 0 10
Effectiveness 97 6 1 1 2 7 98 85 79 77 74 K
5
K
4
K 1 7
K K K K K
(Inc. Rev/ Clicks K K K K K K K K
in $) Q1 2 0 1 8 Sp r
in g 2 0 1 8 B BQ 2 0 1 8 A u tu mn 2 0 1 8 X ma s 2 0 1 8 Q1 2 0 1 9 Sp r
in g 2 0 1 9 BB Q2 0 1 9 A u tu mn 2 0 1 9 Xma s 2 0 1 9 S pr
in g 2 0 2 0 B B Q2 0 2 0 Au tu mn 2 0 2 0 X ma s 2 0 2 0 Q1 2 0 2 1 Sp r
in g 2 0 2 1
FY 2020 & YTD 2021 PERFORMANCE OF BRANDED VS GENERIC PAID SEARCH (FY 2020 & YTD 2021 )
INVESTMENT SUMMARY (K USD)
0 0.37
[CELLRANGE] 0
, $11 0
0
0
0 0.12 Revenue ROI
(ST)
0
0
0
Generic Paid Search Branded Paid Search
[CELLRANGE
], $196 Profit ROI ($) 0.11 0.04
Effectiveness
(Inc. Rev/ ‘000 Clicks 145 55
in $)
47
ST : Short Term Impact
Source: Ducros MMM 2021
Investment in Paid Search not yet saturated; Potential to increase investment in Paid Search
till $352 K, beyond that incremental profit starts diminishing
Paid Search
3.5%
14.0 K
OPTIMAL: 352K
3.0%
12.0 K
MAT'21: 195K
2.5%
10.0 K
2.0% 8.0 K
Profit ($)
1.5% 6.0 K
1.0% 4.0 K
MAT'21:195K
0.5% 2.0 K
0.0 K
0.0% 0K 100 K 200 K
0K 500 K 1,000 K 1,500 K 2,000 K 2,500 K
48
Source: Ducros MMM 2021
Digital Sponsorship campaign laydown (Nov 2017 – Apr 2021)
5000000
MM Impressions
Digital Partnership
4000000 BBQ (Astuce de chef)
Tous en Cuisine
Autumn
3000000 (Marmiton, Cuisine AZ, 6 Play)
(Chef Club + Jaw)
2000000
Xmas
1000000
0
/ / / 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 9 / / / / 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 8 / / / / 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 9 6 / / / / 2 2 2 1
11 12 12 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ 6/ 7/ 8/ 9/ 10 11 12 12 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ 6/ 7/ 8/ 9/ 10 11 12 12 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ 6/ 7/ 8/ 9/ 10 11 11 12 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/
49
Source: Publicis Kitchen
While Xmas 2020 has high effectiveness compared to other campaigns of 2020, high cost
per activity pulled down its ROI
Digital
Sponsorship
Grand Mercredi 2020 Tous en Cuisine 2020 Astuce de chef 2020 Autumn 2020 Xmas 2020
(Partnership) (Marmiton, Cuisine AZ, 6 Play) (Cuisine AZ, 6 Play) (Chef Club + Jaw) (Marmiton, Cuisine AZ)
$2.2
$1.7 3
1 $1.2
$0.9 8 $0.9
4 4
Revenue ROI (ST)
Gra n d Me rc re d i2 0 2 0 T o u s e n Cu is in e 2 0 2 0 As tu c e d e c h e f2 0 2 0 Au tu mn 2 0 2 0 X ma s 2 0 2 0
$0.6
$0.4 4
9 $0.3
$0.2 7 $0.2
7 8
Profit ROI (ST)
Gra n d Me rc re d i2 0 2 0 T o u s e n Cu is in e 2 0 2 0 As tu c e d e c h e f2 0 2 0 Au tu mn 2 0 2 0 Xma s 2 0 2 0
€ €
123 112
€ 58
Investment €9
€ 32
(K $) Gra nd Me rc re di2 02 0 T o u s e n Cu is in e 2 0 20 As tu c e d e c he f20 20 A u tu mn 2 0 2 0 X ma s 2 0 2 0
8.5 8.8
8.3 K
K K 7.5 7.8
Effectiveness K K
(Inc. Rev/ MM Imps in $)
Gra nd Me rc re di2 02 0 T o u s e n Cu is in e 2 0 20 As tu c e d e c he f20 20 A u tu mn 2 0 2 0 X ma s 2 0 2 0
Digital Sponsorship
700 K
0.8%
600 K
MAT'21: 272K
Profit ($)
0.6% 500 K
400 K
0.4% MAT'21:272K
300 K
200 K
0.2%
100 K
0.0% 0K
0K 500 K 1,000 K 1,500 K 2,000 K 2,500 K 3,000 K 0K 500 K 1,000 K 1,500 K 2,000 K
51
Source: Ducros MMM 2021
Comparable performance across all DOOH campaigns with 2020 Autumn delivering highest
ROI driven by higher effectiveness; Short term impact not breaking even;
DOOH
2019 Spring 2019 Xmas 2020 Autumn 2020 Spring
$0.1
0
$0.0 $0.0 $0.0
5 6 6
49
K 26
20
K K
7K
Inc. Revenue 2 0 1 9 Sp rin g Xma s 2 0 1 9 2 0 2 0 A u tu mn S p rin g 2 0 1 9
($)
$24
8
Investment $96 $79
(K $) $31
2 0 1 9 S p rin g X ma s 2 0 1 9 2 0 2 0 A u tu mn S p rin g 2 0 1 9
52
ST : Short Term Impact
Source: Ducros MMM 2021
Higher returns generated for Display, Online Video and Paid Social in comparison to other
channels for Healthy January, while BBQ and Halloween had similar ROIs across most
channels
TOTAL 196
0.2 0.37 0.0 0.10 189 0.18 0.42 0.07 0.17 177 0.2 0.36 0.0 0.16
DIGITAL DISPLAY 12
5
0.25
0.3 7 0.08 0.1 50
0.2 0.70.1 0.2 14
0.2 0.39 8
0 0.0 0.14
9 3 9
0.1 0 0.0
2 7 0 0.1 8
0.1 0.1 0.1
0.23 0.37 0.08 0.12 0.40
6 0.2 0.0 0
0.0 0.179
ONLINE VIDEO 0.16
7 0.1 5 9
56 46 46
0.32
0.5 0.10 0.17 0.1 0.2
2
0.190.34 5 0.1 0.25 9
0.49
0.1 0.19 3 0.0 0.07 0.010.14 6
PAID SOCIAL 57 58 83
0.00.12
PAID SEARCH 26
2
0.0 5
0.0
25
50.1
0.0 60.0
0.0
14
7
0.0
0.0 7
0.0
0.0
0.04 0.01
INFLUENCERS 45
3 1 10
97 47 20
84 32
1.0
STRATEGIC INVESTMENT
Opportunity to increase investment
in the channel to ensure wider
audience reach contributing to
0.5 higher volume
EVALUATE
EVALUATE MAINTAIN & OPTIMIZE
- Evaluate the performance of the
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% channel on the execution,
investment levels, cost of execution,
etc.
Low Proportion of Incremental Volume contribution High
* Quadrant based on median ST ROI and incremental volume contribution across channels
* Size of bubble indicates investment
54
ST : Short Term Impact
Source: Ducros MMM 2021
Incremental sales from media activities has increased recently, with TV yielding
more volume than other channels
Total Ducros
80000
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
17 17 17 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 21 21 21 21 21
/ 20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20
2 9 7 4 1 1 8 6 3 1 9 6 3 1 8 6 3 0 0 7 5 2 0 8 5 2 0 7 5 2 9 8 5 3 1 8 6 3 0 8 5 3 0 7 7 4 2
/2 /1 /1 /1 /1 /1 4/ 5/ 6/ 7/ 7/2 8/2 9/2 0/2 1/1 2/1 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/ 5/ 6/ 6/3 7/2 8/2 9/2 0/2 1/1 2/1 1/1 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ 5/3 6/2 7/2 8/2 9/2 0/1 1/1 2/1 1/1 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/
10 11 12 1 2 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Digital - Paid Social Digital - Paid Search BVOD Digital - Display Digital - Video DOOH OOH TV TV Sponsorship Digital Sponsorship
BVOD Sponsorship Website Traffic Promotions Base Sales
55
Source: Ducros MMM 2021
Incremental sales from media activities has increased recently, with TV yielding
more volume than other channels
Total Pepper
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
17 17 17 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 21 21 21 21 21
/ 20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20
2 9 7 4 1 1 8 6 3 1 9 6 3 1 8 6 3 0 0 7 5 2 0 8 5 2 0 7 5 2 9 8 5 3 1 8 6 3 0 8 5 3 0 7 7 4 2
/2 /1 /1 /1 /1 /1 4/ 5/ 6/ 7/ 7/2 8/2 9/2 0/2 1/1 2/1 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/ 5/ 6/ 6/3 7/2 8/2 9/2 0/2 1/1 2/1 1/1 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ 5/3 6/2 7/2 8/2 9/2 0/1 1/1 2/1 1/1 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/
10 11 12 1 2 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Digital - Paid Social Digital - Paid Search BVOD Digital - Display Digital - Video DOOH OOH TV TV Sponsorship Digital Sponsorship
BVOD Sponsorship Website Traffic Promotions Base Sales
56
Source: Ducros MMM 2021
Incremental sales from media activities has increased recently, with TV yielding
more volume than other channels
Total Herbs
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
17 17 17 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 21 21 21 21 21
/ 20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20
2 9 7 4 1 1 8 6 3 1 9 6 3 1 8 6 3 0 0 7 5 2 0 8 5 2 0 7 5 2 9 8 5 3 1 8 6 3 0 8 5 3 0 7 7 4 2
/2 /1 /1 /1 /1 /1 4/ 5/ 6/ 7/ 7/2 8/2 9/2 0/2 1/1 2/1 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/ 5/ 6/ 6/3 7/2 8/2 9/2 0/2 1/1 2/1 1/1 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ 5/3 6/2 7/2 8/2 9/2 0/1 1/1 2/1 1/1 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/
10 11 12 1 2 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Digital - Paid Social Digital - Paid Search BVOD Digital - Display Digital - Video DOOH OOH TV TV Sponsorship Digital Sponsorship
BVOD Sponsorship Website Traffic Promotions Base Sales
57
Source: Ducros MMM 2021
Incremental sales from media activities has increased recently, with TV yielding
more volume than other channels
Total Spices
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
17 17 17 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 21 21 21 21 21
/ 20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20
2 9 7 4 1 1 8 6 3 1 9 6 3 1 8 6 3 0 0 7 5 2 0 8 5 2 0 7 5 2 9 8 5 3 1 8 6 3 0 8 5 3 0 7 7 4 2
/2 /1 /1 /1 /1 /1 4/ 5/ 6/ 7/ 7/2 8/2 9/2 0/2 1/1 2/1 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/ 5/ 6/ 6/3 7/2 8/2 9/2 0/2 1/1 2/1 1/1 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ 5/3 6/2 7/2 8/2 9/2 0/1 1/1 2/1 1/1 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/
10 11 12 1 2 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Digital - Paid Social Digital - Paid Search BVOD Digital - Display Digital - Video DOOH OOH TV TV Sponsorship Digital Sponsorship
BVOD Sponsorship Website Traffic Promotions Base Sales
58
Source: Ducros MMM 2021
Incremental sales from media activities has increased recently, with TV yielding
more volume than other channels
Total Seasoning
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
17 17 17 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 21 21 21 21 21
/ 20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20
2 9 7 4 1 1 8 6 3 1 9 6 3 1 8 6 3 0 0 7 5 2 0 8 5 2 0 7 5 2 9 8 5 3 1 8 6 3 0 8 5 3 0 7 7 4 2
/2 /1 /1 /1 /1 /1 4/ 5/ 6/ 7/ 7/2 8/2 9/2 0/2 1/1 2/1 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/ 5/ 6/ 6/3 7/2 8/2 9/2 0/2 1/1 2/1 1/1 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ 5/3 6/2 7/2 8/2 9/2 0/1 1/1 2/1 1/1 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/
10 11 12 1 2 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Digital - Paid Social Digital - Paid Search BVOD Digital - Display Digital - Video DOOH OOH TV TV Sponsorship Digital Sponsorship
BVOD Sponsorship Website Traffic Promotions Base Sales
59
Source: Ducros MMM 2021
Media Planning Optimizer & Simulator
60
Developed media planning simulator & optimizer, to enable the team to plan
for future marketing investments
61
Not u
Agenda
62
Not u
Summary
IV. DIGITAL
III. TV/AV • Digital ROI improved vs YA driven by strong
• TV/AV ROI improved in FY20 due to the execution of performance from Social, Display and Online Video
the Spring Sponsorship (Tous en Cuisine), • Across campaigns, Spring execution was the most
strategically placed during containment period, successful execution across platforms as the curated
followed by strong performance from BBQ campaigns effectively engaged consumers during the
sponsorships containment period
• PLP TV copy (BBQ/ Autumn) though effective than • Paid Search investment not breaking even in long
Feel TV campaign, efficiency was impeded as TV term; Currently the channel is under-invested
operates close to saturation compared to the industry benchmark
63
Not u
Recommendations for channels
TV
• Avoid heavier execution as it will impact channel PAID SEARCH
efficiency. Prefer the strategy with there is a mix of • Invest more in Paid Search; For the start,
longer and shorter duration;
increase investment till € 200K and
• 20s/30s to lead a new campaign to build story & drive constantly monitor channel’s performance
sales and 10s ads can be used to cost efficiently • Focus on generic search campaigns over
maintain the campaign over a longer period
branded search as they are more effective
• Recommended to maintain the split of TV : Digital as than later despite the higher cost
60: 40 (industry benchmarks) with recommended to
keep TV investment at max € 1.6 M
• Plan to keep TV continuous. Among bursts, prefer to
execute Xmas, BBQ, and Jan/Feb bursts as this will
ensure continuity with higher returns ONLINE VIDEO
Key Recommendations
• TV sponsorship provide a strong base for building by Channel • Strategic investment that can support brand
brand’s equity, can be considered as a part of by offering reach beyond TV. Continue
marketing strategy investing in the channel
• Though 6s video lengths are efficient, focus
on longer duration (20/s21s) to lead a new
PAID SOCIAL campaign to build story and continue with 6s
copy to maintain the campaign
• Great investment potential, Continue
investing in the channel up to € 900 K
DISPLAY
PARTNERSHIPS
• Strategic investment channel as it can
• Dig. Partnerships has delivered strong ROIs
ensure high vol uplift with high ROI; Scope
in FY20; can be considered as one of the
to invest up to € 300K
avenues of reaching to the consumers
64 • Identify assets that guarantee wider
audience coverage
THANK YOU
Appendix
66
MMM seeks to quantify the effect of changes in key drivers on McCormick's brand
volume by using Bayesian Econometric model
A statistical approach where key business drivers are regressed with brand’s volume using Bayesian Regression technique
StatisticalModel
Statistical Model Drivers
Drivers
McCormick Brand
McCormick Brand
Volume =f
Volume COVID 19
COVID 19 (Google’s
(Google’s Community
Community
β Environmental
Environmental Mobility Report
Mobility Report ))
X
Equation: Category Seasonality
Category Seasonality
β Calendar
Calendar Holidays
Holidays
Log(volume) = + .Log(Price) + .Log (Distribution) + .Log(C Marketing + residual.…. X
TV&& Digital
TV Digital
Competitors
& Competitors
β Media
Media Events
Events
Marketing
Marketing
Sponsorships
Sponsorships
X
Discounts
Discounts
Brands &
β Promotions
Promotions Consumer && Retail
Retail promos
promos
McCormick Brands
Consumer
X
For McCormick
β Price
Price Consumer Pricing
Consumer Pricing
Commercial
Commercial
Execution
Execution
X
Distribution
Distribution
For
β Distribution
Distribution ## of
of SKUs
SKUs per
per Store
Store
X Out of
Out of Stocks
Stocks
Google COVID Community Mobility variable at workspaces were found to have strong correlation to brand as well as category sales.
The variable tells the % change in # of visitors to the workspaces on a given week from the normal average, highlighting less
workforce working from office, and hence, more cooking at home
To account for peak of sales pre-lockdown a binary variable ‘Covid stock up’ is used which is determined by dates when nationwide
lockdown was implemented. The dates were confirmed from the respective geography's government website
To summarize, the Covid Stock up variable accounted for pre-lock down surge in sales and the Google Covid mobility @ workspace
variable for the ongoing weekly trends on Covid as a significant increase in the work force worked from home.
69
Not u
In order to capture impact of COVID on sales, Google’s COVID community mobility
data at workspaces is used…
1 Other independent variable (Own
Identified key dates when nation-wide Price, Distribution, Competition,
lockdown was implemented Media, etc.) tested in the model
Tested in the 3
1 2
Using the key lockdown dates analyzed the variable in the • Relationship of sales with mobility data
relationship of Google’s COVID Community model was established with significance
Mobility Data at Workspaces with brand sales MODELING ENGINE confirming the hypothesis
% c h a n g e f ro m N o rm a l T im e s
1
B ra n d V o lu m e S a le s
Sales vs % Change in Mobility in Workspaces • Google’s COVID Community Mobility data at Workspace
1,800 10 shows how many visitors have increased/decreased at
1,600 - workspaces compared to the normal average
1,400 (10)
1,200 (20)
1,000 (30)
• The analysis shows an increase in consumption when
800 (40) the lockdown was implemented and most of the
600 (50) workforce was working from home
400 (60)
200 (70)
- (80)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1112 13 14 1516 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36
Total TV & Associates *71% 1,902 31% 1,321 91% 2,520 3,570
60
Volume Sales (‘000 KGs)
50
40
30
20
10
0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02
7/2 1 /2 4/2 8/2 2/2 6 /2 8/9
/2 3/2 9/6
/2 0/2 0/4
/2 8/2 1/1
/2 5/2 9/2 3/2 7/2 0 /2 4/2 2/7
/2 1/2 3/7
/2 1/2 4/4
/2 8/2 5/2
/2
5/1 5/3 6/1 6/2 7/1 7/2 8/2 9/2 1 1 0/1 1 1 1 /1 1 1/2 1 2/1 1 2/2 1/1 1/2 2/2 3/2 4/1
Herbs
Pepper
Spices
Seasoning
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02
7/2 1 /2 4/2 8/2 2/2 6 /2 8/9
/2 3/2 9/6
/2 0/2 0/4
/2 8/2 1/1
/2 5/2 9/2 3/2 7/2 0 /2 4/2 2/7
/2 1/2 3/7
/2 1/2 4/4
/2 8/2 5/2
/2
5/1 5/3 6/1 6/2 7/1 7/2 8/2 9/2 1 1 0/1 1 1 1 /1 1 1/2 1 2/1 1 2/2 1/1 1/2 2/2 3/2 4/1
10
15
20
25
30
-5
0
5
10/22/2017
11/12/2017
12/3/2017
12/24/2017
1/14/2018
2/4/2018
2/25/2018
3/18/2018
4/8/2018
4/29/2018
5/20/2018
6/10/2018
7/1/2018
7/22/2018
8/12/2018
9/2/2018
9/23/2018
10/14/2018
11/4/2018
11/25/2018
12/16/2018
1/6/2019
1/27/2019
Model Performance – Ducros Pepper
2/17/2019
3/10/2019
MAPE
3/31/2019
4/21/2019
R SQUARE
5/12/2019
6/2/2019
6/23/2019
7/14/2019
8/4/2019
8/25/2019
9/15/2019
10/6/2019
10/27/2019
Error
11/17/2019
81%
3.1%
12/8/2019
12/29/2019
1/19/2020
2/9/2020
3/1/2020
3/22/2020
4/12/2020
5/3/2020
5/24/2020
74
6/14/2020
7/5/2020
Actual Volume (KGs)
7/26/2020
8/16/2020
9/6/2020
9/27/2020
10/18/2020
11/8/2020
11/29/2020
12/20/2020
1/10/2021
1/31/2021
2/21/2021
3/14/2021
4/4/2021
Predicted Volume (KGs)
4/25/2021
Volume (in ‘000 KGs)
10
15
20
25
-5
0
5
10/22/2017
11/12/2017
12/3/2017
12/24/2017
1/14/2018
2/4/2018
2/25/2018
3/18/2018
4/8/2018
4/29/2018
5/20/2018
6/10/2018
7/1/2018
7/22/2018
8/12/2018
9/2/2018
9/23/2018
10/14/2018
11/4/2018
11/25/2018
12/16/2018
1/6/2019
Model Performance – Ducros Herbs
1/27/2019
2/17/2019
3/10/2019
MAPE
3/31/2019
4/21/2019
R SQUARE
5/12/2019
6/2/2019
6/23/2019
7/14/2019
8/4/2019
8/25/2019
9/15/2019
10/6/2019
10/27/2019
Error
11/17/2019
85%
3.0%
12/8/2019
12/29/2019
1/19/2020
2/9/2020
3/1/2020
3/22/2020
4/12/2020
5/3/2020
5/24/2020
75
6/14/2020
7/5/2020
Actual Volume (KGs)
7/26/2020
8/16/2020
9/6/2020
9/27/2020
10/18/2020
11/8/2020
11/29/2020
12/20/2020
1/10/2021
1/31/2021
2/21/2021
3/14/2021
4/4/2021
Predicted Volume (KGs)
4/25/2021
Volume (in ‘000 KGs)
10
15
20
25
-5
0
5
10/22/2017
11/12/2017
12/3/2017
12/24/2017
1/14/2018
2/4/2018
2/25/2018
3/18/2018
4/8/2018
4/29/2018
5/20/2018
6/10/2018
7/1/2018
7/22/2018
8/12/2018
9/2/2018
9/23/2018
10/14/2018
11/4/2018
11/25/2018
12/16/2018
1/6/2019
1/27/2019
Model Performance – Ducros Spices
2/17/2019
3/10/2019
MAPE
3/31/2019
4/21/2019
R SQUARE
5/12/2019
6/2/2019
6/23/2019
7/14/2019
8/4/2019
8/25/2019
9/15/2019
10/6/2019
10/27/2019
Error
11/17/2019
86%
5.3%
12/8/2019
12/29/2019
1/19/2020
2/9/2020
3/1/2020
3/22/2020
4/12/2020
5/3/2020
5/24/2020
76
6/14/2020
7/5/2020
Actual Volume (KGs)
7/26/2020
8/16/2020
9/6/2020
9/27/2020
10/18/2020
11/8/2020
11/29/2020
12/20/2020
1/10/2021
1/31/2021
2/21/2021
3/14/2021
4/4/2021
Predicted Volume (KGs)
4/25/2021
Volume (in ‘000 KGs)
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
10/22/2017
11/12/2017
12/3/2017
12/24/2017
1/14/2018
2/4/2018
2/25/2018
3/18/2018
4/8/2018
4/29/2018
5/20/2018
6/10/2018
7/1/2018
7/22/2018
8/12/2018
9/2/2018
9/23/2018
10/14/2018
11/4/2018
11/25/2018
12/16/2018
1/6/2019
1/27/2019
2/17/2019
3/10/2019
MAPE
3/31/2019
Model Performance – Ducros Seasoning
4/21/2019
R SQUARE
5/12/2019
6/2/2019
6/23/2019
7/14/2019
8/4/2019
8/25/2019
9/15/2019
10/6/2019
10/27/2019
Error
11/17/2019
84%
3.6%
12/8/2019
12/29/2019
1/19/2020
2/9/2020
3/1/2020
3/22/2020
4/12/2020
5/3/2020
5/24/2020
77
6/14/2020
7/5/2020
Actual Volume (KGs)
7/26/2020
8/16/2020
9/6/2020
9/27/2020
10/18/2020
11/8/2020
11/29/2020
12/20/2020
1/10/2021
1/31/2021
2/21/2021
3/14/2021
4/4/2021
Predicted Volume (KGs)
4/25/2021