Course: Decision Science

Internal Assignment Applicable for December 2022 Examination

1) Your favourite team Garuda is in the final season of Indian Premier League. Raj Kaul, an expert has assigned a
probability of 60% that Garuda will win based on his study of the current scenario. Past records indicate that when
teams win the championship, they win the first game of the series 70% of the time. When they lose the series, they win
the first game 25% of the time.
The first game is over; your team has lost. What is the probability that it will win the series?
Introduction
Concept & Application
Let us firstly define the events.
W = Team wins the championship & F = Team win the first game
Wc = Team loses championship & Fc = Team lost the first game
Given (W) = 0.6, (FW) = 0.7, (FWC) = 0.25,
And using the formulae P(A) + P(Ac) = 1
and (Bc | A) + (B | A) = 1,
We find P (Wc) = 1-P(W) = 1- 0.6 = 0.4,
(Fc|W)= 1- (F|W) = 1 - 0.7 = 0.3
( Fc | Wc ) =1- P (F) = 1 - 0.25
= 0.75
Probability Tree

Since we want to compute (W|FC) = P (W∩Fc) / P (Fc),

Hence P (W∩Fc) = P(Fc|W) P(W) = 0.3*0.6 = 0.18…………………(1)
P (Fc) = P (W∩Fc) + P (Wc∩Fc) , The team either loses the first game and wins the series or loses the first game and
loses the series , and these are mutually exclusive events ).
Therefore P (Wc∩Fc) = P(Fc|Wc) P (Wc) = 0.75 * 0.4 = 0.3………….. (2)
So P(Fc) = P (W∩Fc) + P (Wc∩Fc) = 0.18 + 0.3 = 0.48………………. (3)
Thus P(W|Fc ) = P (W∩Fc)/P(Fc)
= 0.18/0.48

= 0.375 is the Probability of the team to win the series

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2) Shivani Raje is making Kakhra and selling online via e-commerce websites. Recently she is looking for some insights
for improvising the quality of her product. She thought of survey, she asked her recent customers about the quality of
the product and their satisfaction level towards the same. Her scale is 1 to 5. Higher the score higher the satisfaction/
quality and lower score value indicates lower level of satisfaction and poor quality.
Run Regression Analysis based on the given Data.
Solution :
1. Calculate the Line of regression Y on X (Don’t use Excel, calculate manually)

Customer Customer
Satisfaction Quality x² y² xy N=27
score (Y) Ratings(X)
5 5 25 25 25 Mean of X = ƩX/N = 86/27 = 3.1852
5 5 25 25 25
Mean of Y= ƩY/N= 93/27 = 3.4444
5 4 16 25 20
5 4 16 25 20 Byx = NƩxy-Ʃx*Ʃy
5 5 25 25 25 NƩ(x²)-Σ(x²)
5 5 25 25 25
5 3 9 25 15 = 27*340 - 86*93
5 5 25 25 25 27*320 – (86²)
4 4 16 16 16
4 4 16 16 16 = 9180-7998
4 4 16 16 16 8640-7396
4 4 16 16 16
4 3 9 16 12
= 0.9502
4 3 9 16 12
4 4 16 16 16
4 2 4 16 8
3 3 9 9 9 Regression Line Y on X
3 3 9 9 9
Y-Mean of Y = Byx (X- Mean of X)
3 3 9 9 9
3 2 4 9 6 Y-3.4444 = 0.9502 (X-3.1852)
2 2 4 4 4
2 2 4 4 4 Y -3.4444 = 0.9502*X-3.0264
1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 Y = 0.9502 X-3.0264+ 3.4444
1 1 1 1 1
1 3 9 1 3 Y = 0.9502X + 0.418
1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1
Ʃy = 86 Ʃx = 93 Ʃ x² = Ʃ y² = Ʃxy = 340
320 377

2. What is b1 telling you about the relationship?

Linear regression uses the values from an existing data set consisting of measurements of the values of two variables, X
and Y, to develop a model that is useful for predicting the value of the dependent variable, Y for given values of X.
A linear regression line has an equation of the form Y = a + bx, where X is the explanatory variable and Y is the
dependent variable. The slope of the line is b, and a is the intercept (the value of y when x = 0).
Bl or Beta is the coefficient of X; the slope of the regression line also represents how much Y changes for each one-unit
change in X.

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3) Calculate the Relative Frequency based on the following Data and using ‘Relative frequency’ discuss the data by
choosing appropriate graph.
Concept Application:
Relative frequency is the proportion of the total frequency that is in any given class interval in a frequency distribution

State Name District Name Total Relative

MSMEs Frequency

TRIPURA WEST TRIPURA 2915 43.83%

TRIPURA SOUTH TRIPURA 586 8.81%

TRIPURA DHALAI 439 6.60%

TRIPURA NORTH TRIPURA 854 12.84 %

TRIPURA KHOWAI 514 7.73%

TRIPURA UNAKOTI 447 6.72%
TRIPURA SEPAHIJALA 383 5.76%

TRIPURA GOMATI 513 7.71%

6651

Relative Frequency = Individual Frequency/ Total Frequency

Therefore (West Tripura = 2951/6651)
Hence Relative Frequency = 43.83% and so on

Relative Frequency

WEST TRIPURA
8.00%
6.00% SOUTH TRIPURA

7.00% DHALAI
44.00% NORTH TRIPURA
8.00%
KHOWAI
UNAKOTI
13%
SEPAHIJALA
6.00% 9.00%
GOMATI
B.1. Analyse the following data and show the top 2 districts using Bar chart.

State Name District Name Number of

MSME’s
ANDHRA SRIKAKULAM 10895 BAR CHART
PRADESH
CHITOOR 27,670
ANDHRA VIZIANAGARAM 30186
PRADESH ANANTHAPUR 21,193
ANDHRA VISAKHAPATNAM 29070
PRADESH KURNOOL 15,362
ANDHRA EAST GODAVARI 26546
PRADESH Y.S.R 37,500
ANDHRA WEST GODAVARI 33541
SPSR NELLORE 54,059
PRADESH
ANDHRA KRISHNA 23231 PRAKASAM 45,171
PRADESH
ANDHRA GUNTUR 25479 GUNTUR 25,479
PRADESH
ANDHRA PRAKASAM 45171 KRISHNA 23,231
PRADESH
WEST GODAVARI 33,541
ANDHRA SPSR NELLORE 54059
PRADESH EAST GODAVARI 26,546
ANDHRA Y.S.R 37500
PRADESH VISAKHAPATNAM 29,070
ANDHRA KURNOOL 15362
PRADESH VIZIANAGARAM 30,186
ANDHRA ANANTHAPUR 21193
SRIKAKULAM 10,895
PRADESH
ANDHRA CHITOOR 27670 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000
PRADESH

Hence Derived that Top Two Districts are SPSR NELLORE (54,059) and PRAKASAM (45,171)

B.2. Calculate the median and provide the list of districts above median value

Sr State District No of MSME’s

1 ANDHRA PRADESH SRIKAKULAM 10895
2 ANDHRA PRADESH KURNOOL 15362
3 ANDHRA PRADESH ANANTHAPUR 21193
4 ANDHRA PRADESH KRISHNA 23231
5 ANDHRA PRADESH GUNTUR 25479
6 ANDHRA PRADESH EAST GODAVARI 26546
7 ANDHRA PRADESH CHITOOR 27670
8 ANDHRA PRADESH VISAKHAPATNAM 29070
9 ANDHRA PRADESH VIZIANAGARAM 30186
10 ANDHRA PRADESH WEST GODAVARI 33541
11 ANDHRA PRADESH Y.S.R 37500
12 ANDHRA PRADESH PRAKASAM 45171
13 ANDHRA PRADESH SPSR NELLORE 54059

Since the sample size n (Districts) = 13 is odd number, Therefore (n+1) /2 = (13+1)/2 = 7 which is an integer value
Hence the median is calculated directly by finding the value located at position 7th,
Therefore based on the sample data provided the sample median is 27670

The Districts above median are: Visakhapatnam, Vizianagaram, West Godavari, Y.S.R, Prakasam & SPSR Nellore

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