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ABB India
NEUTRAL
Positives priced in INDUSTRY CAPITAL GOODS
CMP (as on 14 Nov 2019) Rs 1,469
We recommend NEU on ABB India Ltd. (ABB) with SOTP exports is contingent on global recovery and shutdown
of high costs global manufacturing. Target Price Rs 1,534
based TP of Rs 1,534/sh (42x ABB, 30x Power Grid’s
Nifty 11,872
discontinued business). Whilst ABB is well placed to cater Weak macro headwinds impacting ordering: ABB has
seen sharp slowdown in Robotics segment orders from Sensex 40,286
to Automation/Motion/Electrical segments, demand
Auto sector (weak demand). ABB is looking at KEY STOCK DATA
headwinds and punchy valuation limits further re-rating. Bloomberg ABB IN
diversifying into new industries to mitigate impact.
Strong balance sheet, Automation Products/Solutions Motion segment is seeing good demand from No. of Shares (mn) 212
expertise and cross cycles experience limits downside. Metro/Railways projects (constituting 7-8% order book MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 311/4,328
vs nil three years back). Electrical segment is seeing 6m avg traded value (Rs mn) 171
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE QUARTER
good traction from Data centers, Buildings, Metro, STOCK PERFORMANCE (%)
Strong performance: ABB posted Rev/EBIDTA/APAT Power distribution etc. Industrial Automation is muted.
growth of 17/89/118% YoY. Execution was led by 52 Week high / low Rs 1,670/1,210
Motion/Electrification/Industrial Automation revenue STANCE 3M 6M 12M
growing 16/24/17% YoY. EBIDTA margins expanded by ABB is well placed to benefit from capex led economic Absolute (%) 8.9 6.9 14.1
268bps YoY to 7.1% due to better localization, cost expansion. Government initiative on tax reduction augurs Relative (%) 0.9 (1.1) (0.6)
controls and steady employee expense. well over long term for developing India into a global
SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%)
Services/Exports rev. grew 14/91% during 9MCY19. manufacturing hub. India enjoys both domestic demand
and labour arbitrage vs. global supply chain. Jun-19 Sep-19
Services/Exports ramp up augurs well: ABB services Manufacturing shifts take time and near term weak Promoters 75.0 75.0
revenue contribution has increased to 18% vs 15% economic outlook poses re-rating headwinds. We FIs & Local MFs 12.66 12.17
earlier and Exports share has gone up from 11% to 18% recommend NEU on ABB. Key risks (1) Delays in FPIs 3.49 3.42
for 9MCY19 YoY. Services revenue can ramp up further Government capex recovery, (2) Slowdown in private Public & Others 8.85 9.41
as ABB is only servicing 30-32% of installed base (23% investments, (3) INR depreciation, and (4) Any adverse Pledged Shares - -
earlier) vs. 65-70% by the peers. Further expansion in corporate action. Source : BSE
Financial Summary – Standalone*
(Rs mn, Dec year-end) 3QCY19 3QCY18 YoY (%) 2QCY19 QoQ (%) CY18 CY19E CY20E CY21E
Net Revenues 17,456 14,916 17.0 17,258 1.2 66,901 74,427 82,624 93,673 Parikshit D Kandpal, CFA
EBITDA 1,234 654 88.7 1,239 (0.4) 4,578 5,728 6,998 8,284 parikshitd.kandpal@hdfcsec.com
APAT 788 361 118.2 697 13.0 2,542 3,592 5,065 6,151 +91-22-6171-7317
Diluted EPS (Rs) 3.7 1.7 118.2 3.3 13.0 12.0 17.0 23.9 29.0
P/E (x) 122.5 86.7 61.5 50.6
Shrey Pujari
EV / EBITDA (x) 64.8 51.7 42.0 35.1
shrey.pujari@hdfcsec.com
RoE (%) 6.7 8.7 11.4 12.6
+91-22-6639-3035
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research, * Ex discontinued Power Grids Business
HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB <GO> & Thomson Reuters
ABB INDIA: RESULTS REVIEW 3QCY19
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ABB INDIA: RESULTS REVIEW 3QCY19
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ABB INDIA: RESULTS REVIEW 3QCY19
RDA
EE
IA
MO
PG
RDA
EE
IA
MO
PG
corporates preserve cash.
Auto sector slowdown has
Source : Company, HDFC sec Inst Research; RDA – Robotics & Discrete Source : Company, HDFC sec Inst Research; RDA – Robotics & Discrete
impacted order inflows and Automation, MO – Motion, EE – Electrification, IA – Industrial Automation, MO – Motion, EE – Electrification, IA – Industrial Automation, PG
revenue Automation, PG –Power Grids (Discontinued Operations) –Power Grids (Discontinued Operations)
Discontinued Power Grids Capital Employed – 3QCY19 (Rs 42.6bn) Quarterly Order Book Movement (Rs mn)
business continues to be the RDA Order Inflow (Rs mn) - LHS Order Book (Rs mn) - RHS
MO
0%
largest EBIT contributor Unallocated 9% 50,000
42% 45,000
EE 40,000
17% 35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
IA
9% 10,000
5,000
-
4QCY18
1QCY19
2QCY19
3QCY19
PG
23%
Source : Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Source : Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
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ABB INDIA: RESULTS REVIEW 3QCY19
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ABB INDIA: RESULTS REVIEW 3QCY19
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ABB INDIA: RESULTS REVIEW 3QCY19
Income Statement: Standalone (Rs mn) Balance Sheet: Standalone (Rs mn)
Year ending December CY17 CY18 CY19E CY20E CY21E As at December CY17 CY18 CY19E CY20E CY21E
Net Revenues 60,937 66,901 74,427 82,624 93,673 SOURCES OF FUNDS
Growth (%) (29.5) 9.8 11.2 11.0 13.4 Share Capital 424 424 424 424 424
Material Expenses 41,030 45,137 49,568 54,532 62,541 Reserves 35,645 39,649 42,036 45,845 50,641
Employee Expenses 5,187 5,295 5,808 6,304 6,843 Total Shareholders Funds 36,069 40,073 42,460 46,269 51,065
Other Operating Expenses 10,575 11,892 13,322 14,790 16,005 Total Debt 6,042 21 0 0 0
EBIDTA 4,146 4,578 5,728 6,998 8,284 Other Non Current Liabilities 465 358 358 358 358
EBIDTA (%) 6.8 6.8 7.7 8.5 8.8 Deferred Taxes (1,173) (1,150) (1,150) (1,150) (1,150)
EBIDTA Growth (%) (40.3) 10.4 25.1 22.2 18.4 TOTAL SOURCES OF FUNDS 41,403 39,302 41,668 45,477 50,274
Depreciation 1,012 928 953 1,084 1,195 APPLICATION OF FUNDS
EBIT 3,133 3,650 4,775 5,914 7,089 Net Block 12,187 8,931 9,297 9,778 10,248
Other Income (Incl. EO Items) 777 840 807 930 1,224 CWIP 1,165 831 931 1,031 1,131
Interest 572 539 220 - - Investments 2 2 148 148 148
PBT 3,338 3,951 5,362 6,845 8,313 Other Non Current Assets
Tax 1,084 1,410 1,769 1,780 2,161 Total Non-current Assets 13,353 9,763 10,375 10,956 11,526
RPAT 2,255 2,542 3,592 5,065 6,151 Inventories 11,536 9,279 10,185 11,205 12,851
APAT 2,255 2,542 3,592 5,065 6,151 Debtors 27,878 16,869 19,371 21,731 24,840
APAT Growth (%) (39.8) 12.7 41.3 41.0 21.4 Cash & bank balances 17,621 14,752 15,224 17,231 20,399
EPS 10.6 12.0 17.0 23.9 29.0 Other Current Assets 17,320 10,935 11,482 12,056 13,012
EPS Growth (%) (39.8) 12.7 41.3 41.0 21.4 Total Current Assets 74,354 51,834 56,263 62,223 71,102
Profit from discontinued Creditors 43,160 26,757 29,198 31,673 36,325
1,945 2,567 2,054 2,156 2,221
operations
Other Current Liabilities &
Adjusted Profit for the year 4,200 5,109 5,646 7,221 8,372 3,145 2,334 2,567 2,824 2,824
Provns
Growth (%) 21.7 10.5 27.9 15.9 Total Current Liabilities 46,305 29,090 31,765 34,497 39,149
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Net Current Assets 28,050 22,744 24,498 27,726 31,952
Net assets pertaining to
- 6,795 6,795 6,795 6,795
discontinued operations
TOTAL APPLICATION OF FUNDS 41,403 39,302 41,668 45,477 50,274
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
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ABB INDIA: RESULTS REVIEW 3QCY19
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ABB INDIA: RESULTS REVIEW 3QCY19
RECOMMENDATION HISTORY
Date CMP Reco Target
ABB TP 15-Nov-19 1,469 NEU 1,534
1,700
1,600
1,500
1,400
1,300
1,200
1,100
Rating Definitions
1,000
BUY : Where the stock is expected to deliver more than 10% returns over the next 12 month period
Apr-19
Feb-19
Sep-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Mar-19
Dec-18
Oct-19
Aug-19
Nov-18
Jan-19
Nov-19
May-19
NEUTRAL : Where the stock is expected to deliver (-)10% to 10% returns over the next 12 month period
SELL : Where the stock is expected to deliver less than (-)10% returns over the next 12 month period
HDFC securities
Institutional Equities
Unit No. 1602, 16th Floor, Tower A, Peninsula Business Park,
Senapati Bapat Marg, Lower Parel, Mumbai - 400 013
Board : +91-22-6171 7330 www.hdfcsec.com
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ABB INDIA: RESULTS REVIEW 3QCY19
Disclosure:
We, Parikshit Kandpal, CFA & Shrey Pujari, MBA, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject
issuer(s) or securities. HSL has no material adverse disciplinary history as on the date of publication of this report. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to
the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report.
Research Analyst or his/her relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. does not have any financial interest in the subject company. Also Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its Associate may have
beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report. Further Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities
Ltd. or its associate does not have any material conflict of interest.
Any holding in stock –No
HDFC Securities Limited (HSL) is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000002475.
Disclaimer:
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