BHARTI AIRTEL

WIRELESS TELECOMMUNICATIONS | INDIA | 2022-05-31-11:23 CET | CONTACT: VISHAL RAMPURIA 1/7

Q4 FY 2022 results

Investment thesis
• Bharti reported strong revenue growth of 22% y/y to
INR315bn, led by growth (y/y) in India (+23%) and Africa S tock rating (relative) Hold
(+19% in c.c.). EBITDA grew 30% y/y to INR160bn (margin: New price target INR 850.00
+3.0ppt y/y to 50.9%) on growth in Africa (+2.2ppt y/y) and Previous price target INR 830.00
India (+1.9ppt y/y). Excluding (ex.) one-offs, PAT stood at Closing price* INR 699.00
INR11.0bn. India wireless business reported 12.3% q/q growth Return potential 21.60%
in EBITDA on the back of 9% q/q revenue growth, superior to MS CI ES G rating** BBB
peers; subscriber base increased 3m q/q to 326m. Bharti con- MS CI ES G Controversies*** l
tinues to expect tariff hikes and ARPU [2] of INR 200 in 2022. Risk rating Low
• The oligopolistic Indian telecom market is currently character-
ised by consolidated supply, signs of improving pricing/tariff * as of 30 May 2022
discipline, and migration to 4G/higher data plans. Improving ** as of 30 April 2022
net subscriber additions and higher data usage supports *** Yellow
growth.
• Bharti is gaining market share and higher ARPU is driving earn- Company profile
ing growth. The company expects ARPU to improve sharply, Established in 1995, Bharti Airtel (Bharti) is the second-largest
led by 2G-to-4G upgrades and also further tariff increase. Due telecom operator in the world by subscriber base, with presence in
to lower upside on a relative basis, we maintain Hold, however 17 countries. It is also the second-largest telecom player in India
on a raised SOTP [3]-based target price of INR 850. and Africa, with operations in 14 countries. By acquiring the Africa
Q4 revenues operation of Zain Telecom [1] in 2010, Bharti entered the African
• Revenues rose 22% y/y to INR315bn (+5% q/q), led by the In- market. The group’s product suite includes 2G/3G/4G wireless
dia and Africa businesses. Revenues from India grew 23% y/y services, mobile commerce, fixed-line services, Direct-to-Home
to INR225bn on growth in MS [4] (+25% y/y to INR176bn), led (DTH), high-speed home broadband, and enterprise services.
by a 23% y/y rise in ARPU to INR 178 (+10% q/q) and strong Bharti had 491m customers at end-March 2022 and a domestic
4G customer additions. ARPU growth was led by prepaid tariff wireless subscriber market share of 31.6% at end-March 2022. It
hikes taken in Q3 FY 2022 and higher data (+14% y/y) and ended FY 2022 with revenues and EBITDA of INR1.2trn and
voice usage/customer (+3% y/y). Data volumes increased 29% INR581bn, respectively.
y/y, with 11% y/y growth in the data customer base to 208.4m
(4G: +12% y/y to 200.8m). The total mobile customer base Performance
rose 1% y/y to 326.0m (subscriber addition of 3.1m), with a INR
monthly churn rate of 2.8%. Africa revenues grew 21% y/y to
900
INR92bn (+19% y/y in c.c.) on higher ARPU (+11% y/y in
USD) and a 9% y/y rise in its customer base to 128.4m. 800
• The Enterprise business rose 13% y/y to INR42bn on demand 700
for data connectivity and emerging businesses. HS [5] (+46% 600
y/y) was robust, with customer additions of ca 323,000 in Q4 500
FY 2022. Conversely, Digital television (TV) revenues fell 2% 400
y/y on a 1% y/y decline in the customer base.
300
Q4 profits 200
• EBITDA rose a solid 30% y/y to INR160bn, with margin expan- 100
sion of 3.0ppt y/y to 50.9% on improved y/y margins in Africa 0
(+2.2ppt) and India (+1.9ppt). EBITDA grew (y/y) across HS May 17 May 18 May 19 May 20 May 21 May 22 May 23
(+43%; margin: -1.2ppt), MS India (+33%; margin: +3.1ppt), Bharti Airtel Price target
and Enterprise (+11%; margin: -0.8ppt), while it fell in Digital
TV (-3% y/y; margin: -1.0ppt). Bharti reported PAT of 1 month 3 months 6 months 12 months
INR20.1bn (+164% y/y, +142% q/q), including an exceptional
gain of INR9.1bn (vs INR4.4bn in Q4 FY 2021), ex. which PAT Absolute return -5.50% 1.86% -4.08% 33.49%
stood at INR11.0bn. Source: FactSet, Julius Baer; past performance and performance forecasts
are not reliable indicators of future results. The return may increase or de-
crease as a result of currency fluctuations.
[2] ARPU - average revenues per user, [3] SOTP - sum-of-the-parts, [4] MS
- mobile services, [5] HS - home services
[1] Not covered; Julius Baer offers no recommendation and does not provide
any assessment on potential risks and opportunities

Julius Baer Equity Research | Please find important legal information at the end of this document.
EQUITY RESEARCH | BHARTI AIRTEL | 31 MAY 2022 2/7

SWOT ANALYSIS

Strengths Sales segmentation (FY 2022)

• Second-largest telecom operator in India by market share and By business segment
in the world by subscriber base with a top two position in most MS India (52.3%)
of the African countries in which it operates
• Integrated player with a diversified product portfolio and is the MS Africa (29.0%)
only player in India with quad-play products, offering wireless,
fixed broadband and DTH services Airtel (13.3%)
• Pan-India 4G network/spectrum and strong brand equity cou-
pled with robust distribution capabilities allow Bharti an ex- Digital Television Services (2.6%)
panded reach and enjoy pricing power
Weaknesses Home Services (2.5%)

• Lost its market leadership position in India to Jio Telecom

MS South Asia (0.3%)
• High capex has kept FCF weak or negative over the past few
years
• Relatively expensive data plans than Jio and consequent lag-
ging behind it in terms of internet customer base by some mar-
By region
gin India (70.7%) Africa (29.0%)
Opportunities
Others (0.3%)
• Unprecedented rise in data demand fuelled by a surge in
smartphone shipments in both India and Africa
• Well-placed to gain from increasing adaptability of digital
transactions and e-payments via smartphones through its pay-
ment bank option Airtel Money
• Low broadband penetration and digitalisation efforts to en-
hance DTH should drive non-mobile business, while active in-
frastructure sharing should enhance its profitability
Threats
• Decline in subscriber addition post easing of Covid-19 disrup-
tions along with dip in ARPU Source: FactSet
• Gradual substitution of paid voice calls and high capex inten-
sity of telecom companies
• Unfavourable regulatory changes and foreign currency risks

FACTS & FIGURES

Consensus rating Financials

Buy Hold Sell 2021 2022 2023E* 2024E*
28 analyst(s) 2 analyst(s) 1 analyst(s) S ales (INRm) 1,006,158 1,165,469 1,365,802 1,538,091
EBIT (INRm) 166,101 244,432 348,901 439,353

Consensus target (INR) 880.91 EBIT Margin (%) 16.51 20.97 25.55 28.56

Consensus target return potential (%) 26.02 EV/EBITDA (x) 9.32 10.42 7.57 6.26
Adjusted EPS (INR) -2.07 7.63 22.17 36.04
Market capitalisation (INRbn) 4,095.78
EPS growth (%) - - - -
Free float (%) 44.35
P/E (x) - 83.35 30.38 18.69
Beta 0.82
P/B (x) 4.82 - - -
Average Daily volume (m) 0.50
Dividend yield (%) 0.39 0.39 0.47 0.61
52-week high (INR) 775.20
Net debt/equity (%) 246.37 - - -
52-week low (INR) 522.85
Exchange National S tock Exchange of India
* Estimates
Ex-dividend date 6 August 2020
- Implies not available/not meaningful
Results date 27 July 2022 Source: FactSet
S tandard & Poor’s rating BBB-
IS IN INE397D01024
EQUITY RESEARCH | BHARTI AIRTEL | 31 MAY 2022 3/7

CHARTS & FINANCIAL DETAILS

12-month forward P/E (Mar 2020 - present) 12-month forward P/B (May 2017 - present)
P/E (x) P/B (x)
6.60
100.0

80.0 5.20

60.0
3.80
40.0
2.40
20.0

0.0 1.00
Mar 20 Mar 21 Mar 22 May 17 May 19 May 21

+/- 1 Standard deviation Forward P/E (x) +/- 1 Standard deviation Forward P/B (x)

Average (x) Average (x)

Source: FactSet; Past performance and performance forecasts are not relia- Source: FactSet; Past performance and performance forecasts are not re-
ble indicators of future results. The return may increase or decrease as a re- liable indicators of future results. The return may increase or decrease as a
sult of currency fluctuations. result of currency fluctuations.

Peer valuation Earnings per share versus performance

Estimated P/E (FY 2023) INR INR

40.0 850 30.00

30.0 700 22.00

20.0
550 14.00
10.0
400 6.00
0.0
532454-IN

500325-IN

250 -2.00

100 -10.00
May 17 May 19 May 21

Estimated P/E (FY 2023) Average Share price (l.h.s.) Next 12 months' EPS (r.h.s.)
532454-IN-Bharti Airtel, 500325-IN-Reliance Industries

Source: FactSet; Past performance and performance forecasts are not relia- Source: FactSet; Past performance and performance forecasts are not re-
ble indicators of future results. The return may increase or decrease as a re- liable indicators of future results. The return may increase or decrease as a
sult of currency fluctuations. result of currency fluctuations.
Valuation ratios (x)
2020 2021 2022 2023E* 2024E*

P/E - - 83.35 30.38 18.69

P/B 3.11 4.82 - - -

P/S 2.62 3.00 3.21 2.90 2.58

P/CF 30.34 6.74 6.57 6.80 5.91

EV/EBITDA 9.74 9.32 10.42 7.57 6.26

EV/EBIT 39.25 25.85 24.54 15.12 11.35

Dividend yield (%) 0.45 0.39 0.39 0.47 0.61

* Estimates
- Implies not available/not meaningful
Source: FactSet
EQUITY RESEARCH | BHARTI AIRTEL | 31 MAY 2022 4/7

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IMPRINT

Authors:
Vishal Rampuria, Equity Research Analyst, vishal.rampuria@juliusbaer.com 1)

1) This analyst is employed by JBWA, which is regulated by the Securities & Exchange Board of India (SEBI). The analyst has obtained
the requisite certification as mandated by SEBI under the SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014.

APPENDIX

Analyst certification
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EQUITY RESEARCH | BHARTI AIRTEL | 31 MAY 2022 5/7

Disclosure & Recommendation history

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Terms and abbreviations

adj. Adjusted Bp(s) Basis point(s) c.c. Constant currencies
CAGR Compound annual growth rate capex Capital expenditure Consensus The analysts’ opinion on the se-
rating curity. It shows the number of
analysts covering the security
and the breakdown between
Buy, Hold and Sell ratings.
Consensus The average price to which ana- DCF Discounted cash flow DM Developed market(s)
target lysts expect the security to rise.
DPS Dividend per share E Estimate EBIT Earnings before interest and
taxes
EBITA Earnings before interest, taxes EBITDA Earnings before interest, taxes, EM Emerging market(s)
and amortisation depreciation and amortisation
EPS Earnings per share EV Enterprise value FCF Free cash flow
FY Fiscal year GDP Gross domestic product H1; H2 First/second half of the year
m/m Month-on-month Market cap. Market capitalisation MV Market value
NAV Net asset value p.a. Per annum PAT Profits after tax
P/B Price to book value PBT Profits before tax P/CF Price to cash flow
P/E Price to earnings PEG P/E divided by year-on-year P/TBV Price to tangible book value
EPS growth
P/S Price to sales Ppt Percentage point(s) q/q Quarter-on-quarter
Q1; Q2; Q3; First/second/third/fourth REIT Real estate investment trust ROA Return on assets
Q4 quarter
ROE Return on equity ROIC Return on invested capital RoTE Return on tangible equity
TBVPS Tangible book value per share YTD Year-to-date y/y Year-on-year

Equity rating allocation as of 31/5/2022

Buy 60.5% Hold 35.5% Reduce 3.9%
Equity system
Rating rating allocation
for Equityas of 31/5/2022
Research (Stock Rating)
Buy 60.5% Hold 35.5% Reduce 3.9%
Buy Expected to outperform the NIFTY 50 Index by at least 5% in the coming 12 months, unless otherwise stated.
Hold Expected to perform in line (±5%) with the NIFTY 50 Index in the coming 12 months, unless otherwise stated.
Reduce Expected to underperform the NIFTY 50 Index by at least 5% in the coming 12 months, unless otherwise stated.

Frequency of equity rating updates

An update on Buy-rated equities will be provided on a quarterly basis. An update for Hold and Reduce-rated equities will be provided
semi-annually or on an adhoc basis.

Risk rating system for global Equity Research

The risk rating (High/Medium/Low) is a measure of a stock’s expected volatility and risk of losses in case of negative news flow. This
non-quantitative rating is based on criteria such as historical volatility, industry, earnings risk, valuation and balance sheet strength.

MSCI ESG Rating

MSCI ESG Research provides in-depth research, ratings and analyses to support companies’ and governments’ efforts in terms of envi-
ronmental, social and corporate governance (ESG). MSCI ESG Research Intangible Value Assessment (IVA) Rating (MSCI ESG
Rating) provides ratings of companies' investment risks and opportunities which are not generally detected by traditional research
methods. There are three steps to the method: 1) identification of key issues for each sector 2) evaluation of risks and how they are
handled within the company 3) drawing up ratings to qualify the ESG risks not identified. The MSCI ESG Rating is expressed on a
seven-point scale and they range from CCC (worst) to AAA (best).
MSCI ESG Controversies
MSCI ESG Controversies analyses & monitors ESG controversies and breaches of ESG criteria or global rules such as the UN Global
Compact principles. MSCI uses the following indicators: human rights and society, employment rights and the supply chain, company
organisation, environment and clients.
Flag Flag description
A red flag indicates recent very serious and/or extremely widespread controversies on a particular issue. Such a flag is also as-
l
sessed when the problems are systemic or repetitive or indicate wilful negligence.
l An orange flag indicates ongoing severe controversies on a particular issue when the problems are systemic or repetitive.
l A yellow assessment indicates significant concern, where the impact on the relevant stakeholders is high.
l No evidence of major and/or systematic problems.
EQUITY RESEARCH | BHARTI AIRTEL | 31 MAY 2022 6/7

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