Applied Energy 235 (2019) 1351–1368

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Applied Energy
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/apenergy

Curtailment-storage-penetration nexus in the energy transition T

⁎
A.A. Solomon , Dmitrii Bogdanov, Christian Breyer
Lappeenranta University of Technology, Skinnarilankatu 34, 53850 Lappeenranta, Finland

H I GH L IG H T S

• Curtailment-storage-penetration nexus is shown with detailed techno-economic data.

• An optimal curtailment is part of the least cost balancing options.
• Curtailment, storage and penetration simultaneously increase during the transition.
• Techno-economic feasibility of specific storage options depends on the observed nexus.
• The observed nexus defines when to deploy and dispatch a particular storage option.

A R T I C LE I N FO A B S T R A C T

Keywords: The nexus between growing shares of renewables (penetration), storage requirements, and curtailment was
Curtailment studied using a linear optimisation model. The study was performed using a dataset of Israel’s electricity system.
Diurnal storage Five scenarios are designed to assess the techno-economic impact of curtailment under various policy-based
Seasonal storage frameworks. The results show that the three parameters are linked to each other in a way that necessitates
Penetration
simultaneous increase of a total loss (curtailment plus storage efficiency), penetration and storage capacity in the
Curtailment-storage-penetration nexus
energy transition. Depending on the curtailment policy, penetration increases significantly with a small increase
Dispatch order
in storage capacity until it reaches a corresponding point of inflection. Based on these physical relationships,
storage technologies were classified as diurnal and seasonal. Diurnal storage capacity continually increases to a
maximum capacity of about daily average demand, which corresponds to a penetration of approximately 90% of
annual demand where the deployment of seasonal storage significantly increases. Having no curtailment was
shown to lead to higher total system cost as compared to the system optimised with curtailment. Overall, the
nexus between the three factors was shown to define when to deploy and dispatch storage technologies. The
evidence supporting these findings is detailed for the first time.

1. Introduction
Transitioning to very high Renewable Energy (RE) systems is under
way even if it is at a slow pace. The agreement to reduce greenhouse gas
(GHG) emissions at the 2015 United Nations Climate Change
Conference [1], COP21, provides further drives to increase the effort
towards low-carbon energy future. At the same time, as massive de-
ployment of new Renewable Energy (RE) technologies continue its cost
competitiveness improves. For instance, studies forecast continued PV
capacity growth [2] that will lead to continual cost reduction [3] and
increased role to change the future energy system [4]. Despite differ-
ence in expected cost reduction from location to location [5], there is a
universal agreement on the promising future of PV technologies [6].
Similar cost reduction was forecast for Batteries [7] as well as PV and
Wind [8]. As a result, the global RE intake [9] as well as its competi-
tiveness [10] is improving. At the same time, their role in global energy
mix [11] and the resulting levelized cost of electricity [12] is /will be/
improving year by year. Furthermore, techno-economic feasibility of
low-carbon energy system is widely reported by several researcher’s for
various parts of the world, e.g. Israel [13], Macedonia [14], India [15],

Abbreviations: A-CAES, Adiabatic Compressed Air Energy Storage; CCGT, combined cycle gas turbine; CSP, Concentrated Solar Thermal Power; CHP, combined heat
and power plant; DES, desalination; CO2eq, CO2-equivalent; COP21, the 21st conference of parties; GT, gas turbine; GHG, greenhouse gases; HHB, hot heat burner;
IEC, Israel Electric Corporation; (I)NDC, (intended) nationally determined commitments; LCOE, levelised cost of electricity; OCGT, open cycle gas turbine; PHS,
pumped hydro storage; PtG, power-to-gas; PV, photovoltaic; RE, renewable electricity; ST, steam turbine; TES, thermal energy storage; UNFCC, United Nations
Framework for Climate Change; WS, Water Security
⁎
Corresponding author.
E-mail address: solomon.asfaw@lut.fi (A.A. Solomon).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.11.069
Received 16 May 2018; Received in revised form 17 November 2018; Accepted 19 November 2018
Available online 26 November 2018
0306-2619/ © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
A.A. Solomon et al.
Australia [16], Finland [17], Northeast Asia [18], Portugal [19], Den-
mark [20], United States [21], global [22], western electricity co-
ordinating council [23], Turkey [24], Saudi Arabia [25], etcetera.
Currently, many agree that a RE future is a possibility both technically
and economically [26]. Fossil and nuclear fuels are also losing ground
in some markets to RE [27]. Moreover, the shares of Variable Renew-
able Energy (VRE), such as wind and solar PV, in the energy market are
increasing globally. With the reported increase in VRE penetration
comes also a report of certain challenges, such as curtailment, related to
its intermittency depending on the energy system structure [28].
The foregoing energy system transition studies and the one reported
by Greenpeace [29], IEA [30], shows continued increase in the use of
renewables and storage technology. The reported contribution of RE to
the total energy need, as well as the corresponding dominant resource
and technology, depend on the focus of the studies in terms of geo-
graphic location, target year and various assumptions related to tech-
nology costs and policy. Though there are significant variations re-
garding the detail of the findings, the overall conclusion shows that an
increasing use of VRE resources, such as wind and solar PV, is in-
evitable. However, an increased use of VRE is regarded with concern in
the power industry due to the challenges that comes with its variability
[28]. The key challenges to achieve large-scale use of VRE are three-
fold, namely:- (i) matching the VRE output to the load profile; (ii)
adding a fluctuating resource to an electro-mechanical system designed
to handle an already fluctuating load; and (iii) uncertainty to forecast
VRE output. In a series of studies focussed on assessing matching
challenges of VRE output to the Israeli power system and the associated
solutions, phenomena such as curtailment with [31] and without [32]
storage, increased grid dispatch flexibility [33], resource distribution
[34] as well as complementarity of wind and solar [35], were in-
vestigated in order to increase grid penetration. Notice that the per-
centage share of the total annual electricity demand supplied by direct
VRE output plus storage discharge is defined as penetration. These
studies showed that depending on a target penetration, a various mix of
these phenomena would be necessary. In a separate paper [36], the
authors also showed that curtailment not only increases penetration but
also increases the use of storage resources and as a result reduces the
required storage capacity. Another multi-node study investigating the
role of storage design [37] and resource complementarity [38] for
California’s grid also reported similar results with additional new sets of
findings such as the ability to reduce balancing need using curtailment.
In agreement with them, studies performed for other geographies sug-
gested a mix of solutions such as demand response as well as curtail-
ment and storage [39], variety of flexibility options in general [40] and
including those suitable for power quality control [41], excess energy
curtailment [42], increased load following capability [43], increased
use of vast geographically distributed resources [44], complementarity
of wind and solar [43], improved forecasting [45] as well as the use of
energy storage technologies [46], in order to increase the uptake of VRE
by the energy system. Curtailment was also found to reduce storage and
balancing need for the European system [47], whose optimal values
also depend on the use of a resource mix and other factors [48]. Studies
assess the role of multiple tools such as electric mobility and storage
[49], and a broader mix of technologies [50] and varying system sizes
[51]. In [37], energy storage is shown as a key enabler for high VRE
penetration. Studies examining the role of storage have reported a re-
lationship between the required storage capacity, total energy loss (loss
due to storage efficiency plus curtailment) and VRE penetration using
datasets of the Israeli [32] and Californian power system [37]. The total
energy loss does not include losses related to other factors than cur-
tailment and losses incurred during the storage charging and dischar-
ging processes. Due to an inherent relation between the two types of
losses (to be detailed later), the nexus between the three parameters
will be examined by using total loss as a substitute for curtailment while
providing specific information about the corresponding curtailment.
In studies reporting high penetration of VRE through the use of
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storage, three important lessons emerge. First, designing the required
electricity storage based on seasonal and diurnal matching of renew-
ables and load profile is very important [32]. Storage enables higher
grid penetration by transferring the stored electricity to later times of
insufficient generation. To effectively handle the storing need at a time
of VRE excess generation and supply at a time of insufficient genera-
tion, it is required to model the proper storage time dynamics while
achieving time synchronicity between load and VRE output [37].
Second, if storage is to be optimally designed for a certain amount of
high VRE penetration, it is important to allow some curtailment in
order to avoid limiting the use of the storage resources that are built
[36]. Because of this, storage requirement and curtailment are shown to
partly substitute each other [52]. Specifically, at a given amount of VRE
penetration, high curtailment was shown to require smaller electricity
storage capacity and vice versa. This is because of the role curtailment
plays in increasing VRE penetration. As detailed in the case of Israel
[36] and California [37], at higher penetrations curtailment enables
better matching by increasing storage utilisation. The third lesson re-
lates to sizing the required storage system for a given purpose [32].
Unlike many conventional generators, which are reported in terms of
one dimensional parameters (namely power capacity), energy storage
system size should be reported with two dimensional parameters,
namely storage system power capacity (kW) and energy capacity
(kWh), or one of them plus the corresponding hours of storage, also
called the energy-to-power ratio [37]. An optimal system design in-
cludes proper identification of storage technology type and character-
istic, its location in the network, and its specific power and energy
capacity [37]. This is challenging because of the requirement for sev-
eral abstract parameters to correctly characterise storage technologies,
uncertainties related to operational policies as well as pricing of the
future grid. As discussed in [52], present models vary in a number of
ways in modelling energy storage. As a result, it is difficult to clearly
show the relation between total energy loss, storage capacity require-
ment and RE penetration. The above studies detailing the case of Ca-
lifornian [37] and Israeli grid [36], show that the three increase si-
multaneously. At the same time, several transition results, for instance
[24], suggests the same without paying much attention to its sig-
nificance. As a result, the magnitude of the necessity of the link between
these parameters were never clear because it was considered simple
phenomenon. Furthermore, there is a tendency to consider storage as a
full substitute to curtailment despite evidence that indicates that the
two could complement each other [52]. Moreover, even though the
number of modelled storage technologies and their representation may
affect their comparative importance regardless of their cost, currently
little is known about factors that define the storage deployment and
dispatch order. However, there seems to be global agreement that en-
ergy storage is needed and RE penetration will continuously increase as
we press forward in energy system transition efforts. Thus, a novel
approach that will clarify the relation between total energy loss, energy
storage requirement, and grid penetration of VRE and its role during the
energy transition is required. The important questions of interests in-
clude:
• How does the storage technology mix and capacity requirement
relate to VRE penetration?
• What is the economic opportunity/penalty of allowing curtailment?
• What are the factors that will define storage deployment and dis-
patch order?
In Solomon et al. [38] and Heide et al. [47], curtailment was shown
to have technical benefits in reducing both storage and balancing ca-
pacity needs at certain amount of VRE penetration. This suggests that
some economic benefit may also be found. On the contrary, other re-
searchers treat curtailment as a mere waste of energy [53]. This is in
spite of various studies, discussed above and those analysing various
results for Europe [54] and wider geographic regions [55], that report
A.A. Solomon et al.
curtailment as a part of least cost optimisation result. This research will
present for the first time empirical data that shows that an optimally
designed energy system with curtailment costs less than the one de-
signed without curtailment. Together with the first set of these sce-
narios, a compelling theoretical explanation of the novel “curtailment-
storage-penetration nexus” concept will be presented to clarify the
scientific base for the observed techno-economic benefit of curtailment.
On top of this, Ref. [56] argued that system level issue need to be
considered when developing energy technologies. This is particularly
important when model results are much dependent on assumed cost
[57] and varieties of other considerations [58]. This paper will bring
forward key techno-economic parameters that policy makers could use
to assess system level suitability of various technologies during energy
transition.
This study uses a dataset of Israel’s electricity system. The choice
was made because of the smaller size of Israel’s system, which provides
the opportunity for a detailed study of the subject in question using a
system that has several characteristics typical of many other countries
as detailed in [13]. Moreover, studies evaluating the link between VRE
penetration, energy storage requirement and total energy loss exist for
this system.
2. Problem formulation and model
This section presents brief information on the methodology and
various assumptions. The specific inputs related to Israel are similar to
those given in [13], which is based on the present energy system of that
country and its present and future policy directions [13]. This section
provides a brief summary of the model, assumptions and the details of
the relevant scenarios.
2.1. LUT energy system transition model and data
The research was carried out using the LUT Energy System
Transition model, which is developed by researchers at Lappeenranta
University of Technology and referred as the “LUT model” in this paper.
In the following, a brief summary of the LUT model is given. It is a
linear optimisation tool developed to examine how to transition the
present hydrocarbon based energy system to a 100% RE system by the
year 2050. Fig. 1 presents a simplified block diagram showing the
model’s various components and the related flow chart. More detail
regarding the model is given in Bogdanov and Breyer [18] and Breyer
et al. [22]. This optimisation tool achieve time synchronicity between
the demand profile and VRE output throughout the year by optimising
on an hourly time scale. The computational burden of modelling large-
scale energy systems on an hourly resolution was overcome by
Fig. 1. Simplified Block diagram and the flow model of the LUT Energy System Transition model [18].
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implementing a 5-year time step sequential optimisation during the
transition from the present system to the aspired 100% RE system. This
was done while enforcing a requirement that various technologies built
over the transition period are fully amortised. This model ensures that
an hourly output of all generation and storage technologies supply the
demand for electricity at each hour of the year. Generation technologies
in this model include a mix of the present day conventional fossil fuel
generators and RE technologies. The RE technologies in the model in-
clude static tilted PV, north–south single-axis tracking and rooftop PV,
concentrating solar thermal power (CSP), both onshore and offshore
wind generators, hydropower systems with or without a dam, power
plants running on biogas and solid biomass, as well as geothermal
power plants. In addition, 5 storage technologies, namely lithium ion
batteries assumed to serve as residential and system storage, pumped
hydro storage (PHS), adiabatic compressed air energy storage (A-
CAES), thermal energy storage (TES) and gas storage, are included in
the model. Power-to-Gas (PtG) technologies such as water electrolysis,
methanation, CO2 direct air capture, gas storage, and both combined
and open cycle gas turbines are part of the synthesis of synthetic natural
gas (SNG) and its reconversion to electricity. The PtG technologies have
to be operated in synchronization in the charging mode because of the
assumed absence of hydrogen and CO2 storage. For systems that have
resources for biogas production, the model employs a 48-hour biogas
buffer storage, and part of the biogas can be upgraded to biomethane
and introduced to the gas storage. The time synchronicity between VRE
and load is suitable to satisfy the requirements discussed in [37], but
the Energy-to-Power ratio limitation applied for storage technologies,
following an approach that seems to be a tradition in this area [51],
could limit the storage design flexibility. However, the LUT model can
be considered as one of the advanced hourly resolution optimisation
tools to study how to transition to a net zero greenhouse gas (GHG)
emission energy systems. This model was also used to study the cou-
pling of sectors such as desalination [59] and non-energetic industrial
gas [60] to the power sector. The objective of the LUT optimisation
model is to minimise the total energy system costs, which is framed as a
sum of the annualised capital expenditures of the different technolo-
gies, as well as operational expenditures of the system.
The other important feature of this model is the possibility of esti-
mating a prosumer market potential during system planning. This is
done by applying an exogenously defined mini-transition hourly model,
which installs rooftop PV and battery systems for residential, com-
mercial and industrial customers. This mini-transition optimisation tool
also minimises the cost of consumed electricity for potential prosumers.
The key inputs of the present research is the same as the input to the
decarbonisation policy scenario result given in [13], to which readers
interested in more details are referred. A short summary is given below.
A.A. Solomon et al.
Fig. 2. Israel Electricity Company sub-region map with simplified transmission
interconnections between them. This map, found in IEC, 2010 [64], is not a
political boundary map, thus includes the two regions of the Palestinian Au-
thority (namely West Bank and Gaza).
To model the power system, Israel plus the Palestinian regions have
been grouped into 5 sub-regions based on the district map of IEC found
in [61]. The corresponding utility sub-region map is given in Fig. 2. The
technical details of the Gilboa pumped hydro storage project, which is
currently near its completion, is given in [62], which is assumed to
come online in order to support the system based on the assumption
given in [13]. All other storage technologies were modelled based on
the specification typical of the model. Israel has 50 years’ worth of
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potential underground CO2 emission storage capacity in the southern
region [63]. Using the structure as A-CAES and gas storage rather than
for storing CO2 may be of long-term national benefit to Israel. As a
result, large storage capacities were assumed for both technologies in
this region. If the technologies are cost competitive, batteries as well as
TES technologies can be built in all regions. The existing total transfer
capacities of the transmission interconnections between sub-regions
were estimated based on 2015 model results together with a thorough
comparison of the results against the data given in IEC, 2010 [61].
Other important input data are the regional load profiles for each of
the five sub-regions. The electricity consumption of each sub-region
over 2010 was given in IEC, 2010 [61]. The corresponding data for
2006 [64] shows that each sub-region’s annual share of the total de-
mand of the country changes little from 2006 to 2010. As a result, the
2010 consumption shares of each sub-region were utilized to estimate
the sub-regional profile from the national load profile of IEC in 2011.
Future demand was forecast by assuming a 2.7% annual increase, a rate
assumed by the Government of Israel, by considering the reduction in
the rate of demand growth subject to its energy efficiency policy [65].
2.2. Scenarios and the nexus
In order to examine the evolution of the power system with regards
to the progress in VRE penetration and the related requirements on
storage capacity and total loss, it is important to create scenarios that
involve some diversity. The diversity of the scenarios should provide
various rates of increase in VRE penetration amount as well as its de-
pendence on curtailment, with some of the scenarios enforcing full RE
penetration by 2050. Thus, a total of 5 scenarios, which are summarised
in Table 1, have been developed. The scenarios aimed at clarifying how
storage requirement, energy system penetration of VRE and curtailment
are related. To evaluate fast transition scenarios, a GHG emission cost
for two corresponding transition scenarios was applied. Alternatively,
scenarios that model the transition based on the projected technology
cost alone are also included. To identify any opportunities/penalties
related to curtailment, two curtailment conditions were applied to both
scenarios. The remaining scenario presents the case of a Current Policy
(CP) scenario of Israel.
This paper starts by studying the impact of these scenario variations
on the power system transition. Then, it proceeds to perform a sys-
tematic analysis of the data in order to understand how the relationship
of the three parameters, namely curtailment, storage capacity and VRE
penetration, resulted in the observed differences, which is termed the
curtailment-storage-penetration nexus. This systematic analysis will be
done by exploring the relationship between the parameters in-
dependent of time. The calculation of VRE penetration and curtailment
is in agreement with what is used for Israel [36] and California [37].
3. Results
3.1. Factors affecting the power system transition
In order to discuss the physical relationship of curtailment-storage-
penetration, it is important to begin by analysing how these factors are
interrelated in the energy transition and their related socio-economic
implication to the energy transition.
Fig. 3 presents the Levelised Cost of Electricity (LCOE) during the
transition period for the five scenarios defined above. For the scenarios
with carbon cost, Fig. 3a and d, LCOE slightly increases until 2025, then
it starts to gradually decrease. The high cost in 2025 is basically due to
an increase in capital expenditures (capex) in new capacities, specifi-
cally in solar PV and batteries as compared to the previous years, and
the high cost of GHG emissions in that year. The cost decreases of the
subsequent years are due to the significant decreases in fuel and GHG
emission costs that resulted from an increased investment in cheaper RE
technologies. Similarly, the two transition scenarios without carbon
A.A. Solomon et al. Applied Energy 235 (2019) 1351–1368

Table 1
Name and description of scenarios included in this study.
Name Description

Base Case (BC) This scenario anticipates the use of carbon emission cost in the form of direct tax, carbon trade rules or other indirect means.
The assumed effective cost of GHG emissions per ton of CO2eq is expected to increase from 9 € in 2015 to 28, 52, 61, 68, 75, 100
and 150 € at each 5-year time step until 2050. To enable easy comparison of the result with others, these carbon cost values as
well as all other input data (except the specific numbers related to Israel that are discussed above), are set to a value typical of
the LUT model. This scenario usually represents the fastest transition. The curtailment amount in this scenario is set based on
what the model evaluates as optimal
Current Policy (CP) The nationally determined commitment of Israel provides specified key targets for electricity generation [63,65]. The intended
RE (to be sourced mainly from wind and solar) share for 2020 is 10% of its annual electricity demand. The share of RE is
planned to be increased to 17% of the annual demand by 2030 [63,65]. The post-2030 share of RE is not clear, but, in the
present study, a generous increase in RE penetration of 1%/year was assumed. Due to this limit, the maximum PV prosumer
market potential was reduced from 20% to 7% for this particular case. More detail on the present policy of the country can be
found in [61], which also provides the justification for the assumption regarding fossil power plants. Current practices suggest
that the use of coal decreases [73] while reliance on natural gas increases. At the same time, despite uncertainties over the
construction of nuclear power plants in Israel1, evidence suggests that nuclear power plants are given consideration for the post-
2030 period [61]. After analysing this evidence, it was assumed that the first nuclear power plant of 500 MW is built by 2030,
with another 1 GW and 1.4 GW being built in 2035 and 2050, respectively, as in [61]. Based on the present national and
international initiatives, the possibility of using direct or indirect carbon pricing to achieve the aspired emission reduction is
high. Thus, the Current Policy scenario applies the same carbon cost value as in the BC scenario. The curtailment amount is not
constrained
No Carbon Cost (NCC) Unlike the BC scenario, the NCC scenario assumes that the GHG emission cost in the electricity sector is set to zero during the
transition. Consequently, the NCC scenario does not strictly ban fossil fuels by 2050. All other assumptions are similar to the BC
scenario. As presented in the results, because of the close similarity of the result of this scenarios to that of the BC, carbon cost
between the two ranges studied in these scenarios were ignored in this study. The curtailment amount is not constrained
Base Case without Curtailment (BCWC) This is similar to the BC scenario. However, unlike the BC scenario, curtailment is limited to approximately 0.1% throughout
most of the transition. Arriving at an optimal solution by limiting curtailment was challenging at higher penetration. Thus, all
post 2040 runs were performed at a relaxed curtailment limit of 0.2%
No Carbon Cost without Curtailment (NCCWC) This is similar to NCC scenario. However, unlike NCC scenario, curtailment is limited to approximately 0.1% throughout most of
the transition. Arriving at an optimal solution by limiting curtailment was challenging at higher penetration. Thus, all post 2040
runs were performed at a relaxed curtailment limit of 0.2%

To use nuclear power, Israel should import technologies and fuel. This is permitted only between signatories of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NNPT), which
Israel did not sign.

cost given in Fig. 3b and e show the same LCOE trends as one another
and with the corresponding LCOE of the transition scenarios with
carbon cost when the GHG emission cost are excluded. However, note
that the fuel cost in the transition scenarios without carbon cost were
not zero by 2050 because these scenarios do not ban fossil fuels by the
target year. By comparison, the highest LCOE values for scenarios
without carbon cost (Fig. 3b and e) were observed in 2015, which
shows that working for solar PV conducive policy may lead to less ex-
pensive electricity services. The similarity of the overall trends ob-
served in Fig. 3a, b, d and e shows that all of these scenarios lead to
similar transition paths. The difference between the corresponding
scenarios with and without carbon cost is simply the emphasis on fast
transition. The application of carbon cost leads to higher VRE pene-
tration (to be detailed latter) as compared to the corresponding sce-
narios without carbon cost, which is also the reason for its slightly
higher LCOE even when the GHG emission cost is ignored.
Despite the evidence that favours solar conducive policy for a
transition to cleaner energy systems, Fig. 3c shows that the current
policy works to the contrary. Fig. 3c differs from the other scenarios in
two ways. First, the LCOE for all years except 2015 and 2020 was
higher than the corresponding LCOE values reported for all other sce-
narios. Note that the cost remains higher even when the comparison is
made by excluding GHG emission costs. Second, LCOE was found to
increase with time, unlike other scenarios, resulting in higher LCOE by
2050. The increase is driven by both GHG emission cost incurred due to
continued reliance on fossil fuels and the relatively expensive energy
system that is comprised of costly nuclear power plants. Returning to
Fig. 3c, notice that the cost shares of PV and batteries remain low by
2050 as compared to the other scenarios. The highest VRE penetration
in this scenario is approximately 35.2% by 2050. This research focuses
on studying the detailed relation of VRE penetration, total loss (cur-
tailment plus loss related to energy storage efficiency) and storage re-
quirements. A detailed study of the corresponding GHG emission re-
duction policy and transition issues was presented in Solomon et al.
[13], which could give more detail on the impact of socio-economic
policies and desalination sector coupling to electricity as part of the
energy system transition. The result, as summarised here for the sake of
completeness, shows two important policy lessons. First, Sun Belt
countries, such as Israel, can speed up their transition to a RE system
without the need to apply a GHG emission cost. However, these
countries should alternatively promote a policy that encourages the use
of solar PV and battery storage in order to achieve the fastest rate of PV
system cost reduction, as the PV and battery storage markets depend on
local policy. The overall policy target should also be frequently revised
to take advantage of the cost competitiveness of PV and batteries. The
implementation of such a policy could achieve a comparable dec-
arbonisation effect as applying GHG emission cost, with the possibility
of reaching 100% RE with small extra cost added on to that of the NCC
by year 2050. Second, embracing a pro solar PV and battery storage
policy also brings a cheaper and faster decarbonisation alternative as
compared to the CP. Notably, it was found that the power system
transition will also be affected by other factors, such as curtailment
policy. After this, the focus will be on examining the impact of cur-
tailment policy on the power system transition. Returning to Fig. 3, a
comparison can be made of the corresponding scenarios with and
without curtailment. The LCOE for the two scenarios without curtail-
ment given in Fig. 3d and e were found to be higher than the corre-
sponding years’ LCOE values presented in Fig. 3a and b. Specifically,
LCOE values for the BCWC scenario in 2045 and 2050 were 10.3% and
8.6% higher than for BC. Similarly, the LCOE for NCCWC is 8.5% and
8.4% higher than the NCC scenario, respectively, for the same years.
The significant cost increases for the scenarios without curtailment run
contrary to the intuition that curtailment is a simple waste of energy.
3.1.1. Total loss and VRE penetration by scenarios
In order to understand the cause of the cost difference, it is in-
structive to study other technical results in more detail. Fig. 4 presents
the corresponding VRE penetration, total loss and curtailment for the

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Fig. 3. A change in LCOE for (a) BC; (b) NCC; (c) CP; (d) BCWC; and (e) NCCWC scenarios of the power system transition from 2015 to 2050.
five scenarios.
Fig. 4a shows how VRE penetration changes from now up to 2050.
As clearly seen in all cases, grid penetration of VRE increases. The
fastest increases occur for the two scenarios with GHG emission cost,
regardless of differences in curtailment policy. These scenarios arrive at
a VRE penetration value of approximately 95% of the annual demand or
higher by 2040 as compared to the approximately 97% penetration
value achieved by the two NCC scenario by 2050. Initially, with the
exception of CP, all scenarios show a similar increasing trend but the
increase takes a separate path after 2025. The NCC scenario keeps the
same increasing trend up to 2045, when it starts to level off. This is
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because the last few percentages of VRE penetration require more
storage, making it a little more expensive, but not too expensive as can
be seen from the comparative cost of electricity (Fig. 3) in 2050 for the
BC scenarios. Limiting curtailment has a more pronounced impact on
the NCC scenario, which is reflected by the lower VRE penetration
corresponding to NCCWC up to the year 2040 that diminishes after
2040. The VRE penetrations for the NCC scenarios are 96% and 95.3%
of the annual demand of the year 2045 with and without curtailment,
respectively, which becomes 97% of the annual demand by the year
2050 in both cases. Notice that the scenarios related to the BC arrive at
the same VRE penetration amount in the year 2045 and 2050. This
A.A. Solomon et al.
Fig. 4. Trends of (a) VRE penetration and (b) energy loss (both total and curtailment) for all scenarios. Due to the existing inflexibility, the loss as a percentage of
total VRE was much higher for all scenarios in 2015. For that particular case, loss is given as a percentage of total generation.
shows that the observed cost deviation results from other effects of the
curtailment policy. The slow increase in VRE penetration, observed for
the CP scenario is a simple reflection of the limited target of the CP of
the nation, but the data corresponding to this scenario provide im-
portant information to explain the impact of energy system inflexibility.
Fig. 4b presents the energy losses corresponding to penetrations
given in Fig. 4a. For all scenarios except the CP, the total loss and
curtailment increase from 2015 to 2050. The increase in total loss de-
pends on the scenario. The difference in total loss of the BC and NCC
scenarios is mainly due to the corresponding VRE penetration, which
mainly leads to different amounts of curtailment. The two no-curtail-
ment scenarios have a relatively lower total loss due to the obvious
influence of the applied no curtailment policy. Note that curtailment
continually increases for the scenarios that allow it. Though the in-
crease in curtailment for the BC scenario shows some occasional de-
crease (for example from 2040 to 2050), it did not lead to a propor-
tional decrease in total loss. This is because the loss due to storage
efficiency increased during that same period showing the substitutional
effect between curtailment and storage loss. For the no-curtailment
scenarios, the figure clearly shows that curtailment remains very low
(due to the applied limit) but the total loss increased from 2015 to 2050
as usual. The close correspondence of the total loss and the storage loss
curve for the no-curtailment scenarios shows that the increase in total
loss is driven by the increase in storage loss. Comparing the storage loss
for scenarios without curtailment to the corresponding scenarios with
curtailment (given in the same Fig. 4b), it can be seen that the storage
loss significantly increased for the scenario without curtailment due to
the increased reliance on storage to reach higher penetration, reinfor-
cing the observed substitutional effect of losses. Because of this effect
between the losses, the total loss did not decrease by an amount pro-
portional to the avoided curtailment. However, note that the total loss
is significantly lower than the corresponding total loss reported for the
case with curtailment. This substitutional effect of losses shows the
importance of discussing the total loss as defined in this paper and in
Solomon et al. [37] perhaps with specific information on the amount of
the corresponding curtailment. The presented loss trend of the CP
scenario is significantly different. This will be explained in Section 3.2
in more detail.
The reported increase in storage loss also shows that under both
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scenarios without curtailment, a rise in VRE penetration is achieved
through increased energy storage service. However, why, regardless of
the reduction in total loss, did LCOE not decrease? The answer may
relate to the increased storage service discussed above, because in-
creased storage service does not mean increased utilisation of the same
resources. Due to the no-curtailment limit, as discussed in Solomon
et al. [36], the option to increase energy system VRE penetration is to
increase storage capacity but at lower utilisation. This is clearly shown
in the generation and storage capacity requirement given in Figs. 5 and
6 in the upcoming subsection, respectively. Before proceeding to that, it
is important to state that “curtailment” is not a mere energy loss but a
technical option that provides flexibility to increase energy system
penetration of VRE. It gives the system an option to avoid the load
following or storing requirement that would otherwise be necessary to
enforce a strict load and generation balancing, which are to be provided
by no other technologies than storage in the scenarios without cur-
tailment.
3.1.2. Role of various technologies by scenarios
Fig. 5 presents capacity requirements for the scenarios given in
Fig. 4. As can be seen from this figure, except for the CP, the technology
mix of generation capacities for all scenarios gradually changes from a
fossil dominated system in 2015 to a solar PV dominated system by
2050. The PtG technology, CCGT, and OCGT in the 2050 system fully
becomes part of the gas storage system, and involves burning the stored
SNG for the scenarios with carbon cost. However, for scenarios without
GHG emission cost, approximately 2% of the annual demand will be
obtained from fossil natural gas. Returning to comparing scenarios
without curtailment (Fig. 5d and e) to the corresponding scenarios with
curtailment (Fig. 5a and b, respectively), it can be seen that the PV
capacity in the corresponding year and scenario was lower for the
scenarios without curtailment while technologies related to gas storage,
such as PtG (labelled as methanation in the figure), increased sig-
nificantly. This change comes as a logical response to the limit on
curtailment where the model managed to reduce PV capacity (that
would otherwise contribute to curtailment) but achieved almost the
same amount of VRE penetration by storing energy from the remaining
PV generators. This relationship suggests that the economically optimal
amount of curtailment depends also on the relative cost of VRE and
A.A. Solomon et al.
Fig. 5. Change in capacity mix for (a) BC; (b) NCC; (c) CP; (d) BCWC and (e)
NCCWC scenarios of the power system transition from 2015 to 2050.
storage technology and their relative mix. The increase in PtG tech-
nology enhances the ability to store more energy using gas storage.
Note that due to the aspired policy the capacity mix in Fig. 5c changes
in a significantly different way. Fig. 6 resents how the corresponding
energy capacity of the storage technologies increases.
Fig. 6 presents other significant differences between these scenarios.
Fig. 6 clearly shows that, depending on scenarios, storage requirements
increase in terms of the required capacity and technology mix from
2015 to 2050. In the early years the model builds the most efficient
storage technologies, such as batteries (PV prosumer batteries appear
first, with utility-scale batteries coming later) but in later years (starting
year depends on scenario), technologies, such as gas storage, start to
appear in larger capacities. Regardless of their similarities in trends, the
rate of increase in storage capacity and technology mix as well as the
time for techno-economic viability of some technologies such as gas
storage significantly depend on the scenarios. For example, the BC
scenario (Fig. 6a) needs higher storage capacity as compared to NCC
(Fig. 6b), due to its requirement for a faster increase of VRE penetra-
tion. Consequently, it builds large gas storage to transfer energy sea-
sonally much earlier, a process that appears to be started late (by 2045)
and in small magnitude in the NCC scenario. However, the limits on
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curtailment lead to two significant differences that can be seen by
comparing to the corresponding scenarios given in Fig. 6d and 6e. First,
the year-to-year increase in storage technology requirement is fast and
significant for scenarios without curtailment. Specifically, the total
energy storage capacity by 2050 increases from approximately 11 TWh
in BC to about 15 TWh in the BCWC scenario and from 6 TWh in NCC to
11 TWh in the NCCWC scenario. While the dominant increase is mainly
due to an increase in the gas storage capacity, an increase in battery
storage was also observed. The battery capacity increased by 9.8% from
approximately 255 GWh for BC to about 278 GWh in the BCWC and by
14.5% from 242 GWh for NCC to 277 GWh for NCCWC in the year
2050. Notice that the presence of various storage technology options in
the model enabled the deployment of various technologies according to
their suitability while keeping the cost still at a minimum level under all
given constraints. Second, the limit on curtailment has forced an earlier
and increased viability of gas storage as opposed to the one observed in
the corresponding scenarios with curtailment. For scenarios without
curtailment, significant gas storage capacity is built already in 2030 and
2035 for the BCWC and NCCWC scenarios, respectively, as opposed to
2035 and 2045 for the BC and NCC. This difference clearly shows that
the connection between VRE penetration and storage requirement de-
pends on the curtailment policy. This occurs because the limits on
curtailment force the model to start transferring energy seasonally. As a
consequence, it builds larger, low-capex gas storage capacities. In the
upcoming subsections, it will be shown that the techno-economic via-
bility of a given storage technology depends on the storage capacity,
VRE penetration and curtailment nexus. This phenomena also shows
that gas storage starts to contribute to the energy delivery as early as
the corresponding years. In summary, it can be stated that the differ-
ence between the scenarios results from a scenario’s ability to man-
oeuvre the physical link between curtailment, storage and VRE pene-
tration to fulfil its objective, a subject to be discussed later. Overall, one
can state that all transition scenarios initially emphasise more efficient
energy storage that is required to transfer the daytime PV generation to
satisfy nighttime demand. As a result of the imposed low PV penetra-
tion, the storage need for the CP scenario is significantly smaller. In the
end, note that despite its large capacity, gas storage is not economically
suitable for frequent use due to its low round-trip efficiency, as can be
seen from its low energy contribution given in Fig. 7.
Fig. 7 demonstrates that the most dominant source of stored energy
was obtained from the most efficient and high-capex energy storage
technology, which is battery storage. This is because of the relatively
low levelised cost of storage (LCOS) resulting from its relatively high
storage utilisation. However, gas storage, which contributes a lower
share of the stored energy, is suitable in a seasonal energy transfer role
due to its ability to provide cheap, large energy storage capacity. It can
be seen that gas storage starts early energy transferring services for
scenarios without curtailment (Fig. 7d and e) as described above. In
comparison to scenarios with curtailment (Fig. 7a and b), the energy
contribution of gas storage significantly increases when the no-cur-
tailment policy is enforced. Note that still gas storage supplies ap-
proximately 7% of the annual demand in the highest case, which is in
BCWC 2050, as compared to close to a 48% share of the battery output
for the same condition.
The energy contribution by each generation technology is presented
in Fig. 8. In agreement with the change in the generation technology
mix shown in Fig. 5 and other factors described above, Fig. 8 shows that
the electricity generation mix changes from the presently fossil fuel
dominated one to a RE dominated system over time. For further details
on differences between corresponding scenarios, readers are referred to
the Supplementary material, specifically to Figs. A1–A4 and related
discussions.
Despite the reduction in PV capacity and the corresponding elec-
tricity generation when curtailment is limited, LCOE rises as compared
to the corresponding LCOE for scenarios with curtailment. This is be-
cause when curtailment is limited, the system needs a larger storage
A.A. Solomon et al.
Fig. 6. Energy storage requirement by technology for (a) BC; (b) NCC; (c) CP; (d) BCWC; and (e) NCCWC scenarios of the power system transition from 2015 to 2050.
capacity to provide the flexibility needed to achieve comparable VRE
penetration. Thus, the assumption that curtailment is a simple waste of
energy is just intuitional. Previous studies [52] have shown that cur-
tailment increases energy system penetration of VRE with a reduced
need for storage and conventional balancing capacity. In the present
study, economic opportunities induced by these technical advantages
are seen. However, because this is a transition model, it is not possible
to show how curtailment reduces the balancing requirements of con-
ventional technologies, which retire depending on their lifetimes.
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However, the overall reduction of conventional fuel demand and ca-
pacity is clearly presented in the scenarios with and without curtail-
ment.
Now, it is instructive to enquire how the preceding scenarios may
have affected transmission line requirements. In order to study this
difference, transmission capacities between the five nodes and their
utilisation in 2050 are presented in Table 2. Transmission utilisation is
the ratio of the total bidirectional power transfer throughout the year to
the maximum theoretical transfer (capacity × 8760). Even if there are
A.A. Solomon et al.
Fig. 7. The share of demand sourced from electricity output of various storage options for (a) BC; (b) NCC; and (c) CP; (d) BC and (e) NCCWC scenarios of the power
system transition from 2015 to 2050.
always differences between each scenarios on transmission build up
given in Table 2, the comparative difference between the pair of sce-
narios with and without curtailment is very significant. The scenarios
without curtailment lead to significant transmission increase, particu-
larly for the North to North Western interconnection (please see Fig. 2
for the interconnection map). This may be due to the balancing chal-
lenge that is created in the North Western corner when curtailment is
avoided. As a result, the system should transfer power from the
southern region at times of stress using this transmission line, which
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also has lower utilisation. In the present study, the interconnection was
defined following the present high voltage line. However, future studies
should provide more detail with better flexibility of the transmission
build up. It should also be noted that a push for no curtailment also
carries more risks of supply reliability to some regions in addition to
higher cost. The CP scenario builds conventional generators in each
node in order to reduce transmission capacity need. As a result, it
should be seen separately.
The preceding discussion shows that VRE penetration, total loss and
A.A. Solomon et al. Applied Energy 235 (2019) 1351–1368

Table 2
Electricity transmission capacity under different scenarios for the year 2050.
Scenario Region 1 Region 2 Capacity Utilisation [%] VRE
names [GW] penetration [%
annual
demand]

BC Northern North 1.5 54 99.5

Western
Northern Southern 4.5 62
Tel Aviv Southern 1.4 27
Southern Eastern 5.7 43

BCWC Northern North 5.4 11 99.4

Western
Northern Southern 4.1 52
Tel Aviv Southern 1.6 34
Southern Eastern 5.4 32

NCC Northern North 1.2 66 97.0

Western
Northern Southern 4.2 71
Tel Aviv Southern 1.8 30
Southern Eastern 6.3 56

NCCWC Northern North 5.4 13 97.3

Western
Northern Southern 3.9 62
Tel Aviv Southern 1.4 31
Southern Eastern 5.9 26

CP Northern North 0.5 13 35.2

Western
Northern Southern 1.1 25
Tel Aviv Southern 1.4 36
Southern Eastern 6.9 48

point of the threshold depends on whether the scenarios represent cases

Fig. 8. Annual electricity generation by technology for (a) BC; (b) NCC; and (c)
CP; (d) BCWC and (e) NCCWC scenarios of the power system transition from
2015 to 2050.
storage requirement simultaneously increase throughout the transition
period. It also shows that the technical and financial viability of a
particular storage technology could be linked to VRE penetration and
the corresponding total loss. It is instructive to explore this particular
relationship as given in the upcoming subsections.
3.2. Curtailment-storage–penetration nexus
The foregoing section shows that VRE penetration, total energy loss
and energy storage increase together. In this section, a closer in-
vestigation into the link between the three parameters is made. In order
to do that, though the achieved VRE penetration depends on the year of
transition as shown in the previous sub-sections, it is important to
disregard its time dependence. Figs. 9 and 11 present two corre-
sponding figures created by extracting the data corresponding to the 5
scenarios presented so far.
Fig. 9 shows the interdependence between VRE penetration and
bulk storage requirement. The figures present a familiar trend in which
VRE penetration shows a sharp rise following an initial small increase
in storage capacity and a gradual levelling off after some threshold. The
with or without curtailment. Notice that the scatter plots of both sce-
narios without curtailment formed one curve, which was represented
by the continuous line curve fitted to their combined data. Similarly,
the other two scenarios with curtailment formed the upper dashed line
curve. The CP scenario falls in the low penetration amount, thus does
not show any new insight. The two curves level off at a VRE penetration
of approximately 90% and 70% of the annual demand for the collective
scenarios, with and without curtailment, respectively. The inflection
points also correspond to an energy storage capacity of the order of
daily average demand (see Fig. 9b). These inflection points are not
random inflections.
Fig. 10 presents the interdependence between VRE penetration and
the energy storage capacity requirement for the scenarios without
curtailment and the corresponding storage use for two different loca-
tions, Israel and California. The curve for the Israeli system shows an
inflection at a VRE penetration of about 70% and energy storage ca-
pacity lower than one daily average demand [32]. This is in good
agreement with the results of this research. The inflection for the Ca-
lifornian system is at much lower penetration [37]. This is because that
system is more diverse than the Israeli system [38]. Overall, it is shown
that the energy storage requirement is affected by the same physical
constraints in both cases [52]. The inflection point for scenarios with
curtailment was also predicted in those studies of the Israeli [36] and
Californian [37] power systems. Both studies clearly state that up to
90% VRE penetration is possible with energy storage capacity only of
the order of daily average demand, and that penetration exceeding the
90% mark is predicted to require a significant increase in the storage
energy capacity. This study is in agreement with that finding but shows
important lessons on how to arrive at 100% RE in a cost effective way.
This is due to the ability to simultaneously model various storage
technologies, in particular those which have their relative cost optimum
at lower penetrations (e.g. batteries) and at higher penetrations (e.g.
gas storage). Though the point of inflection for scenarios with curtail-
ment in the present study is still of the order of daily average demand,

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A.A. Solomon et al. Applied Energy 235 (2019) 1351–1368

Fig. 9. VRE penetration versus bulk energy storage capacity when storage capacity on x-axis is given (a) in units of GWh and (b) daily average demand. Note that the
daily average demand value of Israel varies from year-to-year (for example 168 GWh in 2015 and 410 GWh by 2050).

the energy storage requirement in the present case is slightly higher (up
to approximately 1.7 times daily average demand depending on the
scenario). This is because of gas storage, which contributes negligible
energy at this amount of penetration. As a consequence of this, the total
loss corresponding to approximately 90% VRE penetration is lower in
the present study, which is approximately 15% of the VRE generation
(Fig. 11) as opposed to the 20% estimate in Solomon et al. [36].
However, for approximately 100% VRE penetration, the loss becomes
more than 20% of the VRE generation depending on the scenario. Re-
turning to Fig. 10, the usefulness index (UI) curve, which is a ratio of
total annual storage output to total energy capacity of the storage (also
called full cycles per year), shows how storage use varies with the
storage energy capacity [36]. Notice that the UI curve for the present
study will also be similar, as can be inferred from the trend given in
Fig. 9.
But, why is there a threshold? Why does the inflection point depend
on curtailment policy? Explaining this factor is difficult based on the
present data, but using earlier research of Solomon et al. [32,35–37], it
was possible to explain the phenomenon by referring to the original
sources for the detail of their systematic studies and findings. The above
change in trend shows the change in storage application and as a
consequence also a change in suitable technology preference (see also
Section 3.3). Initially, when a small increase in storage capacity leads to
a significant increase in VRE penetration, storage charging and dis-
charging follow a diurnal cycle. However, after the inflection point,
storage should be able to transfer energy seasonally. Consequently, the
storage energy capacity requirement significantly increases. This phe-
nomenon provided various storage technologies areas of techno-eco-
nomic viability of their own.
Thus, it is instructive to categorise storage technologies used for
energy applications into two groups, namely diurnal and seasonal sto-
rage. Diurnal storage involves technologies that show techno-economic

Fig. 10. VRE penetration (left axis) and UI (right) versus the storage energy capacity, adapted from Solomon et al. [36,37].

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A.A. Solomon et al.
Fig. 11. The relationship between VRE penetration and total energy loss, total energy loss and energy storage for various scenarios.
viability before the inflection point, and seasonal storage involves those
showing the same after the inflection. It is shown above that two in-
flection points exist depending on the applied curtailment policy.
Without curtailment, the inflection occurs at a VRE penetration of ap-
proximately 70% for this particular case. Allowing curtailment will
remove the early need for large seasonal storage. As a result, the in-
flection point will instead be at a VRE penetration of approximately
90% of the annual demand. This is because the removal of the cur-
tailment limit provides the system the flexibility to curtail some of the
excess generation during the consecutive days when additional night-
time discharging is no longer needed. Consequently, the system will
proceed capitalizing on the diurnal role on other days by reducing the
need for seasonal storage. However, once penetration approaches 90%
of the annual demand, the potential for diurnal charge and discharge
processes will significantly diminish. As a result, to increase penetration
and reach 100% VRE supply in case it is needed, more seasonal energy
transfer is required. In the present study, the diurnal energy supply was
performed by batteries and the seasonal supply by gas storage enabled
by PtG technology. This is because, up to 90% VRE penetration, bat-
teries become most competitive economically due to their suitability for
frequent utilisation supported by their high efficiency (more informa-
tion given in the next section). On the contrary, as penetration ap-
proaches the relevant inflection point (specifically 70% for scenarios
without curtailment and 90% for scenarios with curtailment) gas sto-
rage starts to be cost competitive, supported by its ability to provide
cheap storage energy capacity even if it has a lower efficiency and is
unsuitable for diurnal application.
The presence of such complementarity between energy storage
technologies is the most important factor to be credited for the reported
cost effective transition to 100% RE. Note that the system still applies
some curtailment to reduce unnecessary storage capacity increase, re-
sulting in simultaneous increase in VRE penetration, total loss and
storage energy capacity. The relation of total loss with VRE penetration
and the storage energy capacity is given in Fig. 11.
Fig. 11a shows that penetration increases together with total energy
loss even though the magnitude of their interdependence depends on
the applied curtailment policy. The exceptional trend observed for the
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CP scenario will be discussed below using Fig. 11c. The total energy loss
also shows a sharp rise with energy storage capacity, as given in
Fig. 11b, before levelling off depending on the applied curtailment
policy. Due to the scale of the x-axis of Fig. 11b, it is not possible to see
the trend for the CP scenario, but from Fig. 11d one can see that this
trend has nothing in common with the other scenario trends for the
same range. The major reason for the exceptional trend of the CP is
poor energy system flexibility resulting from the chosen policy, which
limited the model’s ability to capitalize on the opportunities embedded
in the curtailment-storage capacity requirement and VRE penetration
nexus as explained below.
Fig. 11c re-plots 11a for the CP scenarios with the 2015 curtailment
re-calculated as a percent of VRE generation of all other years. Note
that, as a result of low energy system flexibility, the high energy loss in
2015 is also common to other scenarios with curtailment as shown in
Fig. 11c. Such high curtailment resulting from poor system flexibility
should not be blamed on VRE technologies. The high loss in this par-
ticular year may be due to the cost of flexible dispatching in response to
small incoming VRE rather than the technical flexibility of generators
because most generators could be dispatched to incorporate the in-
coming PV electricity with a minor cost penalty. Regardless of what is
happening in 2015, the data for the other years in the CP scenario show
a decrease in total loss as VRE penetration increases, which contradicts
the foregoing findings common to all other scenarios. Fig. 11d, which
presents the magnified version of the same scenario given in Fig. 11b,
also shows that the relation between total loss and the storage energy
capacity demonstrates significant dissimilarity to the relations shown
for the other scenarios in the same range. In the CP scenario, the flex-
ibility of the energy system has not improved, as can be seen from the
continued increase of conventional generators reported in Fig. 5. Such a
path gives a narrow economic choice to the model to achieve the tar-
geted renewable penetration. Therefore, the model built slightly larger
energy storage capacities corresponding to each penetration, as shown
in Fig. 9, leading to an odd relationship between energy storage and
total loss as well as VRE penetration and total loss. This indicates that
achieving proper system flexibility will be mandatory to exploit the
potential benefit of the physical connection between storage
A.A. Solomon et al.
requirement, VRE penetration and total loss. At the same time, this
result is also a warning that models favouring conventional generators
are not a good tool to measure the capability of storage technologies
and VRE systems.
The foregoing presentation clearly shows that energy storage re-
quirements, VRE penetration and total loss have a strong physical link,
which affects the economic viability of a given storage technology, its
use and design requirements. The physical link between the three is
defined by seasonal and diurnal matching of VRE output and the local
demand as discussed in Solomon et al. [32,37]. Studies based on models
that have a limited ability to capture this relationship cannot be con-
sidered a trusted resource for transitioning to 100% RE systems.
3.3. Storage dispatch and deployment merit order
In the following section, the entire system dispatch is examined in
order to gain insights regarding the storage dispatch order. For this
case, it suffices to study the 2050 system dispatch for the BC scenario
because it presents the 100% RE setting. At the same time, closer study
of the data for other years shows that the lessons obtained in this
particular case closely apply to almost all other cases with very high
VRE penetration. Fig. 12 presents an hourly generation and storage
discharge (both represented by positive values) and various manners of
electricity use (represented by negative values) for the first 10 days of
the months of July, April and August. The dispatch represents the entire
Israeli electricity supply system by 2050, with hourly generation from
PV, batteries and gas storage. The role of each technology in the entire
system dispatch depends on the season of the year. Fig. 12a, which
shows the dispatch in January of that year, shows that CCGT and OCGT
play significant roles in the first 6 days, with reduced or smaller roles in
the other days. Because of the low solar generation in those days,
batteries did not store enough energy to supply the nighttime demand.
The CCGT and OCGT have been deployed to fill the gap by firing the
stored SNG from other seasons of the year. Intuition suggests operating
the CCGT and OCGT at certain times of the day, but notice that the
model employs a continuous operation while also enabling a prolonged
Fig. 12. System dispatch for the first 10 days of various months of the year: (a) January, (b) April and (c) July. The positive region represents the output of various
generation sources. Notice also the real demand curve. The negative region shows how the excess generation is treated in the model.
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Applied Energy 235 (2019) 1351–1368
operation time of batteries. Employment of this kind of dispatch, during
challenging seasons of the year, was shown to reduce balancing capa-
city requirement, which was termed as backup in that study,
throughout the system as discussed in Solomon et al. [38]. This model
employs most of the required concepts demonstrated in Solomon et al.
[37] while also enabling the achievement of 100% RE by using syn-
thetic fuel for electricity generation. It should be noted that such a
dispatch will require accurate forecasting, which is evolving quickly as
energy meteorology [66]. For the BC scenario, to supply 100% of the
demand including the forecasted 30 GW peak load, 9.2 GW of gas
turbine capacities are required. The capacity will be about 9.0 GW for
the same scenario without curtailment, which is compensated by the
larger battery capacity. The corresponding capacities for the NCC sce-
nario with or without curtailment are 8.3 GW and 8.7 GW, respectively.
The remaining majority of the energy is supplied by direct solar and the
stored energy from batteries. During those winter days, small curtail-
ment could be seen on four of the days. Note that on those days and two
other days, electrolysis occurs during daytime. The SNG used on those
days came from the preceding year.
The gas turbines were not used for electricity supply during spring
days, as shown in Fig. 12b. Similarly, their role during the summer days
shown in Fig. 12c is negligible. During the spring days, due to lower
demand, solar PV generates significant electricity to be stored by bat-
teries and gas storage. The portion in excess of direct use and storage
charging will be curtailed as shown in the figure. Closer inspection of
the figure shows that electrolysis also occurs during nighttime. This is
because the energy in the batteries is more than the electricity supply
needed for the night. Consequently, the model discharges the batteries
for the next day by producing the gas to be stored for other season. The
simultaneous battery discharging – PtG charging process actually re-
duces possible curtailment on the following day and the capacity in-
crease that may have been required on the part of the PtG conversion
system to store the same energy in gas storage. Fig. 12c is almost similar
to that of spring but, due to high demand during summer days, PtG
conversion is limited especially during nighttime. The observed si-
multaneous battery discharge-PtG charge process is part of the least
A.A. Solomon et al.
cost solution. This effect has been already reported for the cases of
regions within Northeast Asia [67] and India [15]. The overall dispatch
trend discussed here is similar to what is discussed in Solomon et al.
[38] and Breyer et al. [67] in spite of the use of gas storage to achieve
100% RE in the present case. Note that the excess generation overlaps
with the summer peak demand time of Israel. The stress time for this
particular area is during winter, when the solar irradiance is lower. In
agreement with Solomon et al. [38], the present peak load based supply
reliability criteria is no longer applicable to the future grid that will
fully or partly rely on VRE depending on local resources.
The foregoing result shows that batteries, which are classified as
diurnal storage, are dispatched in charging mode during daytime and
discharging mode during nighttime. On the other hand, gas storage,
termed as seasonal storage, will be in charging mode on most of spring,
summer and autumn days to store SNG to be utilized during winter days
and some other days of shortage in the other seasons. The gas storing
conversion chain, consisting of electrolyser, CO2 direct air capture,
methanation, physical gas storage and reconversion into electricity via
gas turbines, i.e. power-to-gas-to-power, will have in the future energy
system a role similar to gas turbines in the present power system but
will be dispatched in a different way. Due to the above technical details,
storage which will suitably serve as diurnal storage will have dispatch
priority during charging or discharging. Seasonal storage, constituting
those technologies serving as a tool for maintaining supply reliability
during stressful weeks of the year, will have to come second. However,
this study is not sophisticated enough to group storage technologies
into the classes identified above. Though there are 5 different storage
technologies in the model, the performance of other technologies may
have been affected by the chosen Energy-to-Power (E2P) ratio or cost.
Comparing with the result in Solomon et al. [32] the battery E2P ration
used in this study may be close to optimal, while gas storage has the
flexibility of energy and power capacity design as compared to others.
However, technical details of both classes of storage can be provided
based on what is observed during this study. Diurnal storage can be
identified by two characteristics: high storage efficiency and lower E2P
ratio. On the contrary, seasonal storage could be seen as technologies
that can provide a rather low cost energy capacity. Thus, it should have
a high E2P ratio, and a moderate storage efficiency is allowed. In the
present study, gas storage was shown to fit that requirement of seasonal
storage. PHS and A-CAES could also provide such an option with added
potential to serve as diurnal storage or an intermediate. In an upcoming
study, these options will be explored by improving the storage design
flexibility.
The above presentation leads to the other important topic, which is
storage technology deployment order. The two most important insights
of the proceeding sections are the findings that: (i) the storage-pene-
tration-total loss nexus requires that the three increase together in
transition to a 100% RE system; and (ii) the techno-economic feasibility
of each technology depends on this nexus. Thus, it is important to a
make detailed assessment of the relation of a technology wise deploy-
ment to VRE penetration. Fig. 13a presents the link between VRE pe-
netration and battery capacity while Fig. 13b presents the link between
VRE penetration and gas storage capacity. As can be seen from Fig. 13a,
battery capacity requirements significantly increase until penetration
reaches about 90% of the annual demand, where penetration increase
starts to level off and battery capacity increase stops at some maximum
value because more significant battery capacity increase above that
amount leads to significant marginal cost. This problem was counter
balanced by the corresponding increase in gas storage capacity given in
Fig. 13b. Gas storage was significantly small for penetrations lower than
90% and 70% for the scenarios with and without curtailment, respec-
tively. But this capacity and role increased significantly afterwards.
Though the capacity is still large for the lower penetration ranges, gas
storage contributes almost nothing to the energy system in annual
electricity supply. The early but small relationship between gas storage
capacity and penetration should not be interpreted as a reflection of its
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Applied Energy 235 (2019) 1351–1368
role. Thus, it can be concluded that deployment of storage technology
depends on penetration and curtailment policy. In agreement with our
findings, the results in [68] suggest that feasibility of PtG technology
depends on its role in the system. The results in [68] may have occurred
due to corresponding local inflection related to the nexus, but this was
never clarified as there is a lack of attention to the importance of these
relationships. Diurnal storage will be deployed at an increasing rate
until 90% VRE penetration of wind and solar PV is reached. In the re-
maining penetration range (90–100%), seasonal storage will be sig-
nificantly deployed. Note that Fig. 13 shows that for scenarios without
curtailment, gas storage starts to play a role at lower penetration. In this
circumstance, it replaces some role of curtailment and slightly reduces
battery capacity need as compared to the capacity required for the same
penetration when curtailment is allowed. Notice that battery capacity
requirement differences observed depending on curtailment policy al-
most disappear above 90% penetration for both the BC and NCC sce-
narios. The complementarity of various storage technologies is the
reason why the scenarios formed two simple groups based on curtail-
ment policy as shown in Fig. 9. In general, this study shows that in
policymaking, it is very important to establish the target penetration
and the corresponding curtailment in order to motivate investments in
RE technologies and appropriate storage capacities for that target. Fi-
nally, a transition to 100% RE requires effective exploitation of the
physics of the seasonal and diurnal relationships between VRE output
and the demand profile for the maximum societal benefit.
4. Discussion
The foregoing results show several important insights that are in
agreement with other studies. This research establishes for the first time
the curtailment-storage-penetration nexus with detailed techno-eco-
nomic data. Their relationship clearly shows that for an optimally de-
signed system, the three simultaneously increase throughout the tran-
sition period. The observed nexus is in agreement with previously
reported studies that implemented a systematic approach to study the
subject. Our finding that initially VRE penetration increases sig-
nificantly with a small increase in energy storage capacity is in agree-
ment with the findings reported in Solomon et al. [32]. The presence of
two inflection points was also clear from previous studies [36]. In
agreement with Solomon et al. [36,43,44–45], with an energy storage
capacity of the order of daily average demand, VRE penetration of
about 90% was achieved. The corresponding total losses in those stu-
dies were approximately 20% as opposed to the estimated 15% in this
study, which is explained by larger storage capacities found in the
present study, mainly due to the presence of gas storage, than those
studies. The inflection for the scenarios without curtailment was also
similar to what was reported in previous studies of the same energy
system [36]. Similar trends were reported for California for cases of
both an optimal [37] and various mix [38] of wind and solar.
Storage application and the suitability of a given technology de-
pends on the curtailment policy regardless of the penetration being
higher or lower than the 90% inflection point mark. However, the in-
flection points were useful to classify storage technologies depending
on their roles before and after that inflection point. Storage technolo-
gies that play a significant role before the inflection point are classified
as diurnal storage, but storage technologies that join the systems with a
massive capacity above the inflection point are called seasonal storage.
The inflection point is also the point where these seasonal storage
technologies start to play significant roles depending on the curtailment
policy. Regardless of the curtailment policy, it can be concluded that a
diurnal storage technology deployment monotonically increases with
VRE penetration until it reaches approximately 90% of the annual de-
mand. The reported relationships are a consequence of the achievement
of an optimal matching between VRE output and load profile under
given constraints throughout the transition period. This shows that in
order to take advantage of this relationship and make an effective
A.A. Solomon et al.
Fig. 13. (a) Diurnal and (b) seasonal energy storage requirement versus VRE penetration.
transition to 100% RE, planners should follow paths that would gra-
dually increase the flexibility of the existing energy system while in-
creasing energy storage capacity in the system.
The observed least cost electricity supply reported in connection
with increasing curtailment and VRE penetration shows that an optimal
curtailment amount exists that carries technical and financial benefits
to the system. This optimal curtailment was actually shown to lower
LCOE as opposed to the no-curtailment policy. No previous study re-
ported such an economic advantage, but curtailment was shown to
carry a technical advantage of achieving higher VRE penetration at
reduced energy storage capacity and balancing need [38]. The reported
cost benefit was also clearly linked to these technical advantages. This
is in contradiction to some researchers’ assertions that curtailment is a
simple waste of energy [53]. Such an assertion is not supported by
scientific evidence but is a result of an intuitional speculation. This also
calls into question the result of studies made based on suboptimal
system assumptions, such as Barnhart [69], Carbajales-dale [70] and
Palmer [71]. It is important to note that curtailment is not a simple
waste of energy but an important technical factor whose improper use
or avoidance carries a penalty. The CP scenario shows a good example
of improper use of curtailment that might arise due to poor system
flexibility. Such curtailment should be avoided by improving energy
system flexibility. No random curtailment should be supported, except
those found to give relief in an optimally designed energy system. This
indicates that policy making and regulation requires significant re-
search activities, at least during the transition. The penalties that come
from improper avoidance of curtailment can be seen from the results
obtained in this study by enforcing a no-curtailment policy. As clearly
discussed above, if no-curtailment is enforced, LCOE significantly in-
creases (the increase being higher than 7% for all scenarios in 2045 and
2050). Other previous studies discussed above have shown a relation-
ship between energy storage capacity requirements and curtailment
amount. Some even suggested a curtailment amount of up to 50% of the
generation for Europe [36] and eastern United States [42]. This occurs
because of the effort to drive to 100% RE with diurnal storage tech-
nologies, which are expensive [37], or because of a tendency to treat all
storage as one. Note that, as indicated in Solomon et al. [36], storage
design should be able to exploit the technical suitability of various types
of storage technologies by considering a mixture. Consideration of a
mixture will provide the opportunity to exploit the techno-economic
advantage of various technologies as shown in the present study. Future
improvement could provide a mixture that is superior to the one shown
in this study. Based on this study and other results [52], total loss (both
curtailment and storage efficiency loss) should be lower than 30% of
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Applied Energy 235 (2019) 1351–1368
the generation in the worst case. It is also important to emphasize that
applying curtailment policy may lead to significantly large transmission
requirement between some nodes to overcome a balancing challenge
during some season. It should be clear that this carries an embedded
risk of supply unreliability.
This research also shows a logical storage dispatch merit order, the
diurnal storage has the priority, which is to be followed by seasonal
storage depending on the season of the year. The storage dispatch was
found to follow an order that gives various techno-economic ad-
vantages to the system. First, it was demonstrated that the model un-
dergoes simultaneous battery discharging-PtG charging processes
during some night times, a phenomenon that helps to reduce curtail-
ment in the next day and the required PtG conversion technology to
store the equivalent SNG. This effect was also reported for other regions
in the world [15]. Second, the dispatch also follows an order that will
reduce balancing capacity need. It was shown that the balancing need
by 2050 has the same capacity as the present gas-fired power plant
capacity but will be running on SNG obtained from gas storage. It was
also shown that future stress times are likely to be different from pre-
sent stress times of the power system. This is in agreement with [38],
and may not be solved by following the present day reserve criteria. In
addition, the observed dispatch is in agreement with what was dis-
cussed in Solomon et al. [38] and Breyer et al. [67]
5. Conclusion
This paper presents the results of a study aimed at examining the
curtailment–storage–penetration nexus in the energy transition. The
research was done using the LUT optimisation model, a linear optimi-
sation tool that can ensure hourly synchronicity between the local load
and VRE system output. The study uses the datasets for Israel, which
possess characteristics representing many other countries. The study
has 5 scenarios. Three scenarios enforce the application of GHG emis-
sion pricing during the energy transition period. Of those scenarios, one
closely duplicates the present electricity sector policy direction of
Israel. The two remaining scenarios apply no GHG emission cost. A set
of two scenarios, one from each group, deal with the impact of a po-
tential curtailment rule, with one anticipating a limit on curtailment
while the other expects an optimal transition with curtailment con-
sidered as a technical solution to better match VRE output and load
profile. Each of the results were analysed in detail to identify potential
lessons regarding the physical link between total loss (curtailment plus
storage efficiency loss), VRE penetration and storage energy capacity
requirement.
A.A. Solomon et al.
First, it was shown that the levelised cost of electricity decreases as
the energy transition proceeds from the present energy system to the
future 100% RE system. This trend was found to depend on the use of
GHG emission cost. The most important finding in this study is the cost
difference observed between the corresponding scenarios when a dif-
ferent curtailment rule is applied. If curtailment is limited during the
transition, LCOE is significantly higher than the corresponding values
when curtailment is allowed. For instance, the 2050 LCOE without
curtailment is found to be 8.6% and 8.4% higher than the LCOE with
optimal curtailment for the BC and NCC scenario, respectively. The
above observation challenges the perception that treats curtailment as a
mere waste of energy despite the reported technical benefits [52],
which leads to the observed cost advantage also discussed in this re-
search. From this study, we conclude that curtailment in an optimally
managed energy transition brings techno-economic opportunities to the
system, while no-curtailment or improper use of curtailment carries a
penalty.
Second, this research establishes for the first time the curtailment-
storage-penetration nexus with detailed techno-economic data. Due to
the reported nexus, throughout the transition period, total loss, VRE
penetration and energy storage capacity requirements were found to
increase simultaneously. The nexus between the three was actually
found to define when to deploy a certain storage technology during the
transition. As clearly indicated, VRE penetration significantly increases
with a small increase in energy storage until it levels off. Two inflection
points were found depending on the applied curtailment rule. If cur-
tailment is allowed, the inflection point will be at a penetration amount
of approximately 90% of the annual demand, which would have
otherwise occurred at a much lower penetration of approximately 70%
of the annual demand for a scenario without curtailment. These find-
ings are in agreement with the findings of previous studies
[41,43,44–45]. Due to the presence of varieties of the storage tech-
nology mix in the present model, the inflection points are found to be
points where seasonal storage starts to get deployed. All inflection
points correspond to a storage capacity of approximately one daily
average demand. Based on this result, storage can be categorised into
two groups, namely, diurnal and seasonal storage. A closer study of the
data shows that diurnal storage continuously increases until VRE pe-
netration reaches approximately 90% of the annual demand and the
corresponding total storage capacity reaches approximately one daily
average demand. If no curtailment is allowed, the storage energy ca-
pacity will be larger because of the complementing effect of seasonal
storage. However, for the last 10% of the VRE penetration, seasonal
storage will increase by a significant magnitude.
Third, the dispatch strategy is also guided by the push to effectively
satisfy the nexus between the three parameters in a resource optimal
way. It has been shown that charging and discharging show a seasonal
variation by storage category. This dispatch also shows that the future
energy system has times of stress which are different from the present
one, in agreement with what is discussed in Solomon et al. [38]. Diurnal
storage has dispatch priority both during charging and discharging,
followed by seasonal storage. The simultaneous battery discharging and
gas storage charging processes also allow more efficient storage utili-
sation that will avoid additional curtailment as well as a need for more
PtG capacity to store the same amount of SNG.
The significance of this study lies in its ability to provide important
insights into policymaking and regulation for the transition to 100% RE
systems. The results show that energy system planners and regulators
need to have detailed understanding of their future system to set future
VRE penetration targets and the corresponding curtailment as well as
guide the specification of system requirements and operational rules.
Moreover, it is important that curtailment receive a proper valuing in
the mix of techniques for flexibility. At the same time, significant care
should be taken to avoid possibilities of incentivising unacceptable
amounts of curtailment.
The transition trend observed in this study is almost common to that
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Applied Energy 235 (2019) 1351–1368
found for several geographical regions studied using the same model
[72]. As a result, insights identified in this study should have relevance
to other regions. This is due to the fact that similar physical links cor-
responding to each system could be found in each case with some minor
differences depending on local conditions.
The above findings have significant lessons for a successful energy
transition. The policy decisions on curtailment, energy storage re-
quirements and VRE penetration strongly affect the type of the energy
system to be built. To be effective, regulators should clearly specify and
revise techno-economic indicators often to cope with market dynamics
and on-going change in the energy system. This requires an in-depth
knowledge of the characteristics of local RE resources and their role in
the future energy system with a detail far more than what is required
for the relatively predictable present power system.
Acknowledgements
The authors gratefully acknowledge the public financing of Tekes,
the Finnish Funding Agency for Innovation, for the ‘Neo-Carbon Energy’
project under the number 40101/14 and support from LUT internal
research platform REFLEX.
Appendix A. Supplementary material
Supplementary data to this article can be found online at https://
doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.11.069.
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