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Energy Conversion and Management 295 (2023) 117615

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Energy Conversion and Management


journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/enconman

A multi-scenario site suitability analysis to assess the installation of large


scale photovoltaic-hydrogen production units. Case study: Eastern Morocco
Salah-Eddine Amrani a, Ahmed Alami Merrouni a, *, Samir Touili a, Hassane Dekhissi a
a
Materials Science, New Energies and Applications Research Group, LPTPME Laboratory, Department of Physics, Faculty of Sciences, Mohammed 1st, University, 60000
Oujda, Morocco

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords: Due to the rapid integration of renewable energy sources, challenges related to intermittence and grid stability
Hydrogen have emerged, prompting scientists to seek an efficient and sustainable storage system to address these issues.
GIS Among the existing storage solutions, green hydrogen has demonstrated its high capacity as an energy vector,
AHP
making it a promising solution to significantly enhance the transition to a 100% renewable energy society.
Site suitability analysis
LCOH2
However, the production costs of green hydrogen remain high, necessitating a thorough investigation to identify
Eastern Morocco optimal locations for its production, ensuring high capacity and cost-effectiveness. In this context, the present
paper introduces a multi-scenario, water-based approach aimed specifically at identifying optimal locations for
large-scale photovoltaic-powered hydrogen production units. To achieve this objective, we have developed an
integrated framework that combines the Analytical Hierarchy Process method and the Geographic Information
System tool. This framework takes into account four main criteria and ten sub-criteria, and it has been applied to
the Eastern region of Morocco as a case study. Furthermore, a techno-economic comparison is conducted among
the three scenarios, considering the amount of hydrogen produced and the Levelized Cost of Hydrogen. The
analysis results reveal that the Eastern region of Morocco emerges as a target area for large-scale photovoltaic-
powered hydrogen production units installations, where the sites ranked as “excellent” account for 18.1% of the
total surface area under the first scenario. Moreover, the findings demonstrate that the first scenario represents
the optimal choice for the Eastern region, offering the highest annual hydrogen production (1,875 tons) with the
most advantageous cost of 3.690$/kg. The study’s conclusions are of great significance for overseas investors and
local policymakers, offering valuable insights into the region’s opportunities for hydrogen industry development,
given the rising global interest in green hydrogen market.

stability and ensuring a continuous supply due to the intermittent nature


of these sources [5]. Therefore, the integration of large energy storage
1. Introduction systems is considered the most viable solution capable to address these
challenges [6].
At present, the energy sector holds a paramount position for Among the various storage mediums, hydrogen and fuel cells present
numerous countries, particularly in the aftermath of the COVID-19 the most promising energy storage technologies. This is attributed to
pandemic [1] and amid political instability among major energy sup­ their high efficiency, near-zero emissions, clean and flexible energy at­
pliers, including Russia [2]. Consequently, there has been a notable tributes, and the ability to be produced from green energy sources [7].
upsurge in energy demand and subsequent price escalation, significantly However, the production of green hydrogen from renewable sources
impacting the economies of developing nations [3]. To counter these remains expensive especially on large scale [8].
challenges, an increasing number of countries with constrained con­ Hence, it is crucial for countries seeking to produce green hydrogen
ventional energy resources are actively embracing the transition to clean on a large scale to thoroughly assess their potential and carefully select
and renewable energy sources as a strategic measure [4]. optimal locations for a cost-effective production. However, choosing the
However, achieving a transition to a 100% green energy society re­ most suitable sites for green power plants or hydrogen production units
mains a significant challenge. The integration of renewable sources into is a complex task, involving the consideration of multiple criteria.
the energy mix continues to pose considerable problems related to grid

* Corresponding author.
E-mail address: alami.univ.oujda@gmail.com (A. Alami Merrouni).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2023.117615
Received 23 February 2023; Received in revised form 31 August 2023; Accepted 1 September 2023
0196-8904/© 2023 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
S.-E. Amrani et al. Energy Conversion and Management 295 (2023) 117615

Nomenclature PEM Proton Exchange Membrane


HHVH2 Higher Heating Value of Hydrogen (kWh/kg)
PV Photovoltaic MH2 Hydrogen production (kg)
AHP Analytical Hierarchy Process EPV Electrical production of the solar power plant (MWhe)
GIS Geographic Information System nele Electrolyser efficiency (%)
LCOH2 Levelized Cost of Hydrogen CPV Investment cost of the PV plant ($)
PV-H2 PV-powered hydrogen production power plants T the discount rate (%)
MCDA Multi-Criteria Decision-Analysis Cpanels the unit price of the PV panels ($)
CSP Concentrated Solar Power CO&M Cost of Operations and Maintenance ($)
ISCC Integrated Solar Combined Cycle CBOS Cost of Balance of System ($)
LCOE Levelized Cost of Electricity Cele investment cost of the electrolyser ($)
SRTM Shuttle Radar Topography Mission Cel the electrolyser capital cost ($)
CI Consistency Index Cel,u the electrolyser cost per ($)
CR Consistency Ratio Kel,th the specific energy (kWh/kg)
n Number of criteria Crep Replacement costs ($)
RI Random consistency index η electrolyser efficiency (%)
Greenius The Green Energy System Simulation GHI Global Horizontal Irradiance (kWh/m2)

Indeed, having a location with high solar or wind potential does not comprehensive AHP model that encompasses the most critical parame­
necessarily guarantee its suitability for hosting a power plant or ters and criteria in the hydrogen production chain. To assess the pro­
hydrogen production unit, as other crucial criteria must also be assessed. posed AHP model’s efficacy, an application to the eastern region of
Factors such as land availability, water resources, and economic aspects Morocco has been conducted.
must be carefully considered [9]. This complexity makes it challenging Indeed, the main objective of this study is to assess the site suitability
for researchers and policymakers to choose between different criteria for large-scale Photovoltaic-powered hydrogen production power plants
and find the optimal compromise. (PV-H2) in the Eastern Region of Morocco using a multi-scenario
To address this challenge, numerous researchers frequently employ a approach based on water sources. To achieve this, a combination of
combination of Multi-criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) methods and the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method and a Geographic In­
Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to identify the most suitable sites. formation System (GIS) tool was employed, where four criteria and ten
Among the MCDA methods, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) sub-criteria were carefully selected. Three pairwise comparison matrices
stands out as the most widely used technic due to its simplicity and were established, one for each scenario, to calculate the weight or
precise implementation. Moreover, it has been extensively adopted for importance of each criterion and sub-criterion. Subsequently, a GIS tool
the evaluation and selection of various renewable energy systems [10]. was utilized to generate three maps, each corresponding to a scenario,
For instance, Jbaihi et al. utilized AHP and GIS to identify the optimal displaying the suitable areas for hosting the PV-H2 plants. Lastly, for
locations for hybrid CSP + PV power plants in Morocco [11]. Similarly, each scenario, the most suitable locations for large-scale PV-H2 plants
the AHP/GIS combination has been employed by [12] to detect the were identified, and a techno-economic analysis was conducted to
optimal locations for installing Pumped Hydro Energy Storage plants in evaluate their performances.
Morocco, by [13] to assess the ideal areas for installing offshore wind Despite being the first attempt- at the best of our knowledge- to
plants in Turkey, and by [14] to determine the best areas for mounting explore the potential of a specific region in Morocco for hosting PV-H2
offshore wind and wave energy systems in Greece. production units, the novelty of this study lies in the incorporation of
This showcases the robustness of the AHP/GIS combination in water (from different sources) as a crucial criterion in the land suitability
assessing the land suitability for hosting green power production units/ analysis as well as other economic factors. Furthermore, the study pro­
plants, while also opening avenues for its application in other domains, vides an extensive examination of the influence of water sources on site
specifically in the identification of suitable locations for green hydrogen selection, hydrogen production, and cost.
production. Notably, there is a significant gap in the existing literature The results of the case study reveal that the Eastern Region of
on this subject, with only a few published papers addressing the iden­ Morocco is highly suitable for hosting large-scale PV-H2 plants. The
tification of optimal zones for hosting green hydrogen units. We cite, for “Excellent” locations constitute 18.1% of the total surface area for the
instance, [15], where the authors assessed the potential of Algeria to first scenario, 9.3% for the second, and 3.8% for the third scenario. From
host solar-powered hydrogen power plants and found that 0.49% of the a techno-economic perspective, the findings indicate that “scenario 1″ is
total country area is highly suitable for the installation of such facilities. the optimal choice, with an annual hydrogen production of 1875 tons
Therefore, conducting such studies is of paramount importance, and a levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH2) of 3.690 $/kg. This places the
particularly for countries with significant hydrogen production capacity study area in a highly competitive position in the hydrogen market,
like Morocco [16]. particularly when compared to neighboring countries such as Spain,
Another notable gap in the literature concerning the assessment of Tunisia, and Egypt.
suitable locations to host hydrogen units, specifically related to the se­ In conclusion, the results of this study hold significant value for
lection of criteria. Many published papers in this field primarily focus on policymakers, enabling them to make informed decisions and select the
evaluating criteria associated with green electricity production -as it most suitable locations for installing PV-H2 units based on precise
serves as the main factor for hydrogen production- while neglecting the considerations. Additionally, these findings may be of high interest to
crucial consideration of water resources, which play a key role in researchers and stakeholders, as they offer valuable insights into the
hydrogen production [17] particularly in desert locations where water suitability of the Eastern Region of Morocco – as a case study- for hosting
resources are scarce. Additionally, parameters concerning hydrogen PV-H2 plants and producing cost-effective green hydrogen. Such pro­
transportation, such as gas pipelines, have not yet been integrated into duction can serve local needs or be exported to Europe, making it
the AHP/GIS analysis. Addressing these gaps in the existing literature, particularly attractive to companies involved in green hydrogen pro­
the present study aims to overcome this limitation by providing a duction. The potential for such developments could lead to job creation

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Table 1 literature [18]. However, with a view to improving competitiveness in


The fundamental scale of absolute numbers [21]. terms of production and costs, a GHI threshold of 1900 kWh/m2/year
Intensity of Definition Explanation was set for the first and second scenarios, while 1800 kWh/m2/year was
Importance set for the third scenario. For the sake of cost-effectiveness, a threshold
1 Equal Importance Two activities contribute equally to on the terrain slope was also included.
the objective Indeed, no limit has been set in the literature as regards the slope
3 Moderate importance Experience and judgment strongly associated with PV systems [19]. However, for the purposes of this
favor one activity over another study, a maximum ground slope of 5% is assumed to ensure a relatively
5 Essential or strong Experience and judgement strongly
importance favor one activity over another
flat site, and consequently lower associated investment costs. Further­
7 Very strong importance An activity is strongly favored and more, with respect to the third scenario where seawater feeds the elec­
its dominance demonstrated in trolyser, a restriction has been imposed on the distance from the shore
practice for economic and access reasons. After consultation with government
9 Extreme importance The evidence favoring one activity
planning institutes, long-distance water pumping was deemed
over another is of the highest
possible order of affirmation. economically unfeasible. Therefore, a maximum distance of 150 km
2,4,6,8 Intermediate values When compromise is needed. from the Mediterranean Sea was set, and all areas beyond this limit were
between the two adjacent regarded as unsuitable for the development of PV-H2 units.
judgments.

2.2. Multi-criteria site screening: analytical hierarchy process method


and promote sustainable development in the country.
Given the spatio-temporal variability of the solar resource in
particular, and the challenges associated with hydrogen development,
2. Methods
site suitability assessment remains a crucial step for such projects, both
for policy-makers and stakeholders. On the other hand, thanks to ad­
As part of the present study, a geospatial approach is considered to
vances in spatial analysis techniques and tools, and their combination
identify and prioritize potential areas for the deployment of large-scale
with Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) methods, the screening
green hydrogen production units PV-H2, according to three water
process has become more reliable and robust, contributing ultimately to
resource-based scenarios: water surface, groundwater and seawater.
more cost-effective decisions. Among the various MCDM methods, the
With this in mind, and based on a comprehensive literature review,
Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) stands out as the most widely
candidate sites were identified and ranked according to a set of tech­
appropriate for different renewable energy decision-making problems,
nical, economic and environmental criteria. To this end, a multi-criteria
remaining the most successful and popular. Developed by Thomas L.
decision-making method was introduced, combined with related geo­
Saaty in the 1970 s, the AHP process is a technique based on ratio scale
spatial data and GIS tools support to collect, process and visualize the
indicators for comparing pairs of criteria, factors and alternatives, at
three potential site scenarios. Subsequently, and in order to quantify the
each respective higher level [20]. This method enables the creation of a
production of PV-H2 and the associated cost, a technical–economic
pairwise comparison matrix (A) for n criteria, where each pair is ranked
analysis was carried out for three hotspots associated with the different
according to its relative importance on a specific scale, as shown in
scenarios considered. This approach comprises the following main
Table 1.
process steps:
⎛ ⎞
1 ⋯ a1n
1. Analyzing the restrictions applicable to areas deemed unsuitable for A= ⎝ ⋮ ⋱ ⋮ ⎠
green hydrogen production units PV-H2. 1/a1n ⋯ 1
2. Setting out decision criteria for the deployment of PV-based
Subsequently, the relative weights of each criterion are obtained
hydrogen production units, which comply with globally accepted
using the standard AHP matrix normalization method, which consists of
standards for the siting of GH2 projects.
dividing each value in a column by the sum of the values in that column
3. Using the predefined criteria, the selected multi-criteria decision
and calculating the average for each row of the matrix.
method - AHP - was applied, assigning a weighting to each of the ten
Following this, and as mentioned by Saaty, it is important to check
criteria of interest.
whether the pairwise comparisons are consistent. To do this, the con­
4. Identifying and categorizing potential sites by geospatial analysis
sistency index (CI) is calculated using the following equation:
using various GIS tools.
5. Carrying out a techno-economic analysis for three selected hotspots λmax − n
CI =
with the highest overall weightings. n− 1

whereby λmax is the eigenvalue of the pairwise comparison matrix and n


is the number of criteria. Afterwards, the consistency ratio (CR) is the
2.1. Restriction analysis ratio of CI to RI, wherein RI is the random consistency index which
varies according to the number of criteria (n) as depicted in Table 2.
For any location and as part of the multi-criteria assessment process,
CI
it is first necessary to ensure that the candidate sites meet the necessary CR =
RI
installation requirements for both technologies, i.e. the electrolyser and
the photovoltaic system. To this end, and first and foremost, environ­ If the Consistency Ratio (CR) is less than 0.10 (10%), the consistency
mental considerations have been taken into account, such as forests and is considered acceptable. However, if the CR is greater than 0.10, it
protected areas were deemed unsuitable and have been excluded from indicates the presence of significant inconsistencies in the pairwise
the present assessment. In addition, areas within a 150 m buffer zone comparison and the AHP process needs to be repeated with a revision of
around roads, railways, waterways, dams and power grids were also the judgments.
ruled out, as were cities with a 15 km buffer zone. In the same vein, and
on a technical level, a threshold on the GHI has been considered, so as to 2.3. Decision criteria
ensure efficient operation of the solar field supplying the electrolyzer. In
fact, a GHI threshold of 1700 kWh/m2/year is commonly reported in the In view of the fact that the present system is intended for the

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Table 2
RI values [21].
n 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

RI 0 0 0.58 0.90 1.12 1.24 1.32 1.41 1.45 1.49

This being the case, and with a view to selecting the most effective
Table 3
locations for optimum performance, sites as close as possible to existing
Characteristics of the PV module.
water sources were prioritized over others, and this is for the three
Parameter Value scenarios established.
Number of modules 200.000
Solar cell technology Polycrystalline silicon 2.3.3. Orography
Rated power 250 W As part of the process of identifying sites for the development of PV-
Efficiency 15.4%
Open Circuit Voltage 37.6 V
H2 units, the orography criterion represented by the slope of the land is
Short Circuit Current 8.92 A considered a decision-making factor, given its impact on the investment
Area 1.62 m2 cost of the project associated with the civil engineering works that may
be involved, with regard to the PV installation part. Indeed, the flatter
the terrain, the lower the investment required, making sites with steeper
production of green hydrogen from PV energy, the decision process is
slopes more advantageous than others.
approached by establishing the decision criteria associated with both
systems, i.e. the electrolyzer and the PV installation. Accordingly, and in
2.3.4. Economy and accessibility
order to ensure greater precision and decision-making flexibility in site
Accessibility is a critical aspect for the installation of hydrogen
selection, the present study performs a criteria analysis under three
production units, just like any other power plant technology. Indeed, it is
water-based scenarios to identify ideal sites for the utility-scale instal­
important that these units are located as close as possible to cities to
lation of PV-H2 units. To this end, four main selection criteria and ten
attract workers, while also ensuring proximity to roads and railway
sub-criteria/factors were retained, covering a range of considerations
networks for transporting equipment during construction. In addition,
including climate, water resources, orography, as well as economy and
as solar energy is intermittent, hydrogen production units need prox­
accessibility. These different categories are summarized in what follows.
imity to the power grid to ensure continuous production during cloudy
days or after sunset.
2.3.1. Climate
From an economic perspective, large-scale hydrogen units in prox­
As in the current case, hydrogen production is based on PV energy,
imity to gas pipelines represent a valuable option. This will overcome
the solar resource - Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI)- is a key
storage problems and reduce transport costs [28], as the hydrogen
parameter in the PV + GH2 unit selection process. In fact, the electricity
produced may be transported either locally or exported abroad [29].
generated by the PV plant is used to supply the electrolysis unit, which
splits the oxygen (O2) and hydrogen (H2) from the water. With this in
2.4. Yield and cost analysis of hydrogen production
mind, sites with the highest GHI values are those that guarantee the best
PV yield and, accordingly, high hydrogen production, and are therefore
On completion of the land suitability analysis for large-scale PV-H2
more advantageous over others. In the same category, temperature is
units, a techno-economic analysis has been carried out to assess the
also a parameter impacting hydrogen production in a region or a country
amount of hydrogen that can be produced and the cost per kilogram. For
and requires more attention in the suitability analysis [22]. Indeed, an
this purpose, only sites classified as “excellent” -see results section- were
increase in temperature may lead to a decrease in the efficiency of PV
selected to host hydrogen production units. Subsequently, three excel­
modules [23], which explains the frequent consideration of this factor in
lent locations were selected, one for each scenario, as reference points
siting decisions for PV power plants [24]. Nevertheless, in this study we
for the calculations. These points were identified on the basis of the
will apply the results to Eastern Morocco (as case study) and since this
maximum value of the GHI according to the designated scenario. Sub­
area (which will be discussed on the following section) presents mod­
sequently, in order to carry out the required simulations, a 50 MWP PV
erate temperatures [25], this factor was discarded and only the GHI is
power plant was used to supply the hydrogen electrolysis process. This
taken into account as part of the climate criterion.
configuration was then applied to the three selected sites, so as to
calculate the quantity of hydrogen produced, while estimating the cost
2.3.2. Water resources
of hydrogen production (LCOH2). The underlying approach is described
The availability of water is another major criterion -rarely mentioned
in detail in the following sections:
in the literature- when it comes to locating solar hydrogen production
units. Indeed, as the electrolysis process requires water to produce green
2.4.1. Yield analysis
hydrogen fuel, the proximity to a source of water is an absolute pre­
The PV plant was modeled using the Green Energy System (Greenius)
requisite for a successful siting. On the other hand, the quality and level
simulation tool. This software is recognized as one of the most powerful
of pre-treatment of the water used in the electrolysis process is a crucial
and efficient for analyzing the performance of renewable energy projects
factor that needs to be taken into account. Indeed, water needs to be
[30]. Indeed, numerous studies in the literature have used this tool to
pure before being used in the process [26], a requirement that highlights
calculate the production of different renewable energy systems in
the fact that the source of the water is not as important as it might be, as
different locations [31]. For simulation purposes, Greenius requires
it requires treatment and purification in all cases [27]. Accordingly,
technical data for the PV plant, while a typical year of meteorological
three scenarios were identified on the basis of water source in order to
data is required for the studied sites. The configurations of the selected
pinpoint the ideal location for the development of green hydrogen units:
50 MWP plant are summarized in Table 3.
As part of this study, hydrogen production was evaluated using a
(i) Scenario 1: Water surface (such as waterways, lakes and dams).
Proton Exchange Membrane (PEM) electrolysis process. Thanks to its
(ii) Scenario 2: Groundwater.
high efficiency, long-term life and compatibility with intermittent en­
(iii) Scenario 3: Seawater.
ergy sources such as PV, the PEM electrolysis technique has been
selected [32]. Moreover, as PEM electrolysis is one of the most mature

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Table 4 ∑N ( )
Economic inputs. CPV (1 + T)− i
LCOE = ∑Ni=0( − i) (2)
Parameter Value References i=0 EPV,i (1 + T)

Photovoltaic module The project lifetime assumed for this analysis is 20 years, while i
Cpanels 0.84 $/W [36] represents the year under consideration and T the discount rate,
CBOS 50%
assumed to be 6%. The EPV represents the PV plant’s annual electricity
CO&M 5% [37]
Electrolyser production in kWh. The investment cost of the PV plant (CPV in US$) is
Cel,u 368 $/kW estimated as follows (Equation (3)):
CO&M 2% [38]
Crep 25% CPV = Cpanels + CBOS + COandM (3)

where Cpanels represents the unit price of the PV panels CBOS accounts for
and widely used methods for hydrogen production, it remains the most the costs related to labor and installation, while CO&M represents the
suitable alternative for this study [33]. Therefore, the formula used to operation and maintenance of the PV plant over its lifetime.
determine hydrogen production is outlined in equation (1): As for the levelized cost of hydrogen production LCOH2 - in $/kg -
EPV × ηele this can be calculated using Equation (4) below [35].
M H2 = (1) ∑N ( )
HHVH2 (CPV + Cele )(1 + T)− i
LCOH2 = i=0 ∑N ( − i ) (4)
where, EPV is the electrical production of the PV power plant, HHVH2 is i=0 MH2 ,i (1 + T)

the hydrogen higher heating value (39.4 kWh/kg), nele refers to the ef­
where MH2 is the annual hydrogen production in kg, and Cele represents
ficiency of the electrolyzer, which is assumed to be 75% for the sake of
the investment cost of the electrolyser expressed as follow (Equation
this analysis. This efficiency accounts for the overall electrolyser energy
(5)):
requirements including system auxiliaries, cell stack and losses that may
occurs in the system. The assumptions mentioned above are commonly Cele = Cel + COandM + Crep (5)
used in several studies in the literature [34].
where Cel represents the investment cost of the electrolyzer and is
2.4.2. Economic analysis expressed by equation (6):
For purposes of economic analysis, the Leveraged Cost of Electricity ( )
MH2 Kel,th
(LCOE) and the Leveraged Cost of Hydrogen (LCOH2) were calculated. Cel = Cel,u × (6)
8760η
These indicators are commonly used to assess the economic viability of
solar energy and hydrogen projects, taking into account all project ex­ where Cel,u refers to the electrolyser cost per unit, η is electrolyser effi­
penses over its lifetime, including technical aspects. Using this indicator ciency and Kel,th is the specific energy required theoretically by the
enables a fair comparison to be made between different sites. The for­ electrolyser i.e. 52.5 kWh/kg. The CO&M is the cost of the operation and
mula used to calculate the LCOE (in $/kWh) is presented in Equation (2): maintenance of the elctrolyser, while Crep accounts of the replacement,
given its estimated 7-year lifetime. The economic inputs used in this
study for the calculation of the LCOE and LCOH2 are summarized in

Fig. 1. Process flowchart for hydrogen unit development site selection according to three water-based scenarios.

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Fig. 2. The field of Study (Eastern Region of Morocco).

Fig. 3. Water sources for Eastern Morocco: (a) lakes and dams, (b) water ways (c) Underground water.

Table 4. bordered by Algeria to the East and the Mediterranean to the North (see
Overall, the process undertaken to carry out the current assessment is Fig. 2). This region is a significant player in the Moroccan energy sector,
summarized in the flowchart presented in Fig. 1. with several key energy facilities situated within its borders. These
include the Ain Beni Mathar Integrated Solar Combined Cycle power
plant (ISCC) with a nominal capacity of 470 MW, the Jerada and Nador
2.5. Case study: Application to the Eastern Morocco thermal power plants with capacities of 350 MW and 1320 MW,
respectively, as well as a 32 MW hydropower plant. These facilities
2.5.1. Field of study collectively contribute to 13% of the total electricity production in
The Eastern region is located in the North-East of Morocco, and is

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Table 5
Weight of the factors from each scenario.
Criteria Sub-criteria Factors Weight (%)

Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3

Climate Global Horizontal Irradiance 2150–2283 kWh/m2 24.05 24.05 24.05


2000–2150 kWh/m2 13.70 13.70 13.70
1950–2000 kWh/m2 5.07 5.07 5.07
1900–1950 kWh/m2 2.88
or 2.88 –
1800–1950 kWh/m2 –
– 2.88*
Water resources Distance to Dams >10 Km 5.97 2.80 1.35
10 Km–15 Km 2.69 1.26 0.61
15 Km–25 Km 1.10 0.51 0.25
25 Km< 0.56 0.26 0.13
Distance to water ways >5 Km 9.87 3.35 3.07
5 Km–10 Km 4.56 1.55 1.42
10 Km–15 Km 1.90 0.65 0.59
15 Km< 0.96 0.33 0.30
Distance to underground water on the spot 2.06 12.38 0.91
2.5 Km from the board 0.85 5.10 0.38
5 Km from the board 0.33 1.98 0.15
more than 5 Km from the board 0.16 0.95 0.07
Distance to sea shore <25 Km 1.04 0.97 12.48
25 Km–100 Km 0.47 0.44 7.32
100 Km–150 Km 0.19 0.18 2.36
150 Km> 0.10 0.09 0**
Orography Land Slopes <1% 8.73 8.73 8.73
1–2,5% 4.11 4.11 4.11
2,5–5% 1.80 1.80 1.80
>5% 0.87 0.87 0.87
Economy and accessibility Distance to cities >1 Km 1.45 1.45 1.45
1–5 Km 0.70 0.70 0.70
5–20 Km 0.35 0.35 0.35
20 Km< 0.19 0.19 0.19
Distance to the Electrical grid >1 Km 0.17 0.17 0.17
1 Km–5 Km 0.07 0.07 0.07
5 Km–10 Km 0.04 0.04 0.04
10 Km< 0.02 0.02 0.02
Distance to the main roads >1.5 Km 0.73 0.73 0.73
1.5 Km–5 Km 0.34 0.34 0.34
5 Km–7.5 Km 0.14 0.14 0.14
7.5 Km< 0.07 0.07 0.07
Distance to the Gas pipelines >1.5 Km 0.99 0.99 0.99
1.5 Km–5 Km 0.46 0.46 0.46
5 Km–7.5 Km 0.20 0.20 0.20
7.5 Km< 0.11 0.11 0.11
*
For the 3rd Scenario the irradiance range is 1800–1950 kWh/m2 as all the values less than 1800 kWh/m2 were excluded.
**
For the 3rd Scenario the distance above 150Km from the sea shore are excluded.

Morocco. In addition, due to its strategic location, the Eastern region of categorization. In addition, while ensuring a reliable assessment, data
Morocco is also home to a section of the “Maghreb-Europe” gas pipeline, from robust sources were considered for the purposes of this study.
which transports natural gas from Algeria to Spain.“ In particular, and since hydrogen production is based on PV energy,
Moreover, the Eastern region of Morocco boasts a substantial solar GHI is a key parameter for efficient system operation. For this purpose, a
potential, with a yearly average of 2283 kWh/m2, making it an attrac­ high spatio-temporal resolution map - with 1 km2/pixel and a 20-year
tive placement for solar power plants and competitive in comparison to coverage - derived from the SolarMed Atlas database has been used
neighboring countries, particularly in Southern Europe [18]. (Fig. 4). This data provides high-quality irradiation data with low error
compared with ground-based measurements [39]. Whereas for terrain
2.5.2. Data collection and processing orography, NASA’s Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM) was
Having defined the methodology adopted, the main process steps used [40], which was processed using GIS tools to generate the slope
applied to the Eastern region of Morocco are described below: map. As for the remaining factors, namely distance from various water
As far as restriction zones are concerned, the corresponding data source scenarios, towns, roads and railroads, the power grid, gas pipe­
were processed and analyzed while applying the required buffer zones lines and the other accessibility considerations outlined in the Appendix
mentioned in section 1.1 and adopting the required formats. The section, they were derived using various geoprocessing tools.
resulting maps were then merged using GIS tools to identify areas Subsequently, and using the resulting weights, together with the
deemed unsuitable and, subsequently, those suitable for the develop­ assessment criteria maps and the exclusion mask, the 3 scenario ranking
ment of green hydrogen production units within the area of interest. maps based on water resources were generated, representing the
Over and above the above, and in order to prioritize the adopted appropriate locations ranked from least attractive to excellent, accu­
screening criteria, a pairwise comparison was carried out for the three mulating the highest weights.
water resource-based scenarios (Fig. 3), by means of the AHP method Then, to underline the importance of such a site screening study, a
and based on expert judgement and the conclusions of the relevant techno-economic analysis was carried out for three selected hotspots in
literature. Table 5 summarizes the resulting classification and the Eastern region of Morocco, for the three scenarios, evaluating

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Fig. 4. Global Solar Irradiance (GHI) atlas for Eastern Morocco.

hydrogen production and LCOH2. restriction mask should be done firstly to define the unsuitable areas.
Various aspects were regarded in this matter, such us the environmental,
3. Results and discussion technical and economic ones. After gathering all surfaces, the final
exclusion map incorporating all restriction parameters was generated
The following section is devoted to an outline and analysis of find­ and displayed in Fig. 5.
ings arising from the application of the AHP/GIS results to Eastern Re­ After preparing the restriction mask, three different PV-H2 installa­
gion of Morocco. This section is divided into two main sections. The first tion scenarios are considered, depending on the water source used for
one reviews the results of the AHP screening and the generated land the electrolyzer feed: (i) Scenario 1: Surface water (such as waterways,
suitability maps for large-scale solar-hydrogen power plants in Eastern lakes and dams) (ii) Scenario2: Ground water. (iii) Scenario3: Seawater.
Morocco. The second section is dedicated to assessing the performance The weights of the sub-criteria were displayed in Table 5 for each
of the selected locations. The latter will be done through a techno- scenario obtained from the AHP pairwise comparison matrices. As
economic analysis that will be carried out on three sites, one for each evident, the solar irradiance has the highest weight, particularly in areas
scenario. During the evaluation, the amount of hydrogen that can be with high amounts (ranging from 2150 to 2283 kWh/m2). This is un­
produced is simulated along with the levelized cost of hydrogen derstandable as solar irradiance is the primary fuel for hydrogen pro­
(LCOH2). duction and it is not feasible to consider solar-hydrogen production in
locations with low levels of solar radiation.
3.1. Sites suitability analysis The second most important factor is water availability. This is
essential as hydrogen production cannot take place without the presence
As mentioned above, this part is devoted to present the PV-H2 suit­ of water resources. However, as seen in the table, the outcome of the
ability analysis, nevertheless a presentation and discussion of the three scenarios significantly affects the weight and importance of the

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S.-E. Amrani et al. Energy Conversion and Management 295 (2023) 117615

Fig. 5. Restriction map including all exclusion criteria.

water source. construct new access infrastructure (roads, electricity lines, etc.) after
In Scenario 1, the closer the location is to dams and waterways, the identifying a favorable site for installing a renewable energy power
higher its importance. However, for socio-economic reasons, priority plant, such as the Noor Complex in Ouarzazate.
was given to pumping water from waterways over dams, as dams in To better present the above findings and to highlight the most suit­
Morocco are mainly used for drinking water, agriculture, and power able locations to host large scale solar based hydrogen units, these re­
production. In the second scenario, the suitability of the land was sults were integrated into a GIS software to combine the processed layers
evaluated based on the availability of underground water as the source (sub-criteria) where each pixel has an assigned weight based on the
of water for hydrogen production. The sub-criteria related to ground calculations above. This led to the generation of three final maps (one
water was found to have the highest weight compared to the other for each scenario) presenting the ranking of the suitability of the present
scenarios. For example, if a location is positioned on top of a ground field of study to host large scale hydrogen power plants, see Fig. 6. As it
water source, its weight will be 12.38%. Similarly, in the third scenario, can be observed, the Eastern region of Morocco can be considered as a
the sub-criteria related to seawater as a water source were found to have very good location to host hydrogen production units. Indeed, the
the highest weight compared to the first and second scenarios. For “excellent” locations have a surface share of 18.1%, 9.3% and 3.8% for
instance, areas within 25 km from the shore had a weight of 12.48% for the scenario 1, 2 and 3 respectively. In addition, the “highly suitable”
the water resource sub-criteria, which decreased as the distance from the sites represent 26.5%, 25.7% and 7.2% for the three scenarios respec­
shore increased. tively, while the non-suitable sites represent 32.9% for the first and the
The land slope follows as the next factor of importance, with a second scenarios and 78.7% for the third scenario. Table 6 summarizes
relatively high impact on investment costs. For example, a relatively flat the percentages of the land share for each class and for each technology.
land with a slope less than 1% has a weight of 8.73%. On the other hand,
the economic and accessibility sub-criteria hold the lowest weights or
3.2. Yield analysis of hydrogen production and cost
importance. This is reasonable given that Morocco’s infrastructure is
still developing and it is common for decision makers in the country to
After performing a land suitability analysis for large-scale PV-H2

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Fig. 6. Land suitability analysis for hosting large-scale hydrogen production units based on solar energy source: (a) Scenario 1: water from renewable sources, (b)
Scenario2: Water from Ground water, (c) Scenario3: water from the sea.

selected with a nominal capacity of 50 MWP for the operation of the


Table 6
hydrogen electrolysis process. Then, simulations were performed in the
Land suitability analysis share for the three scenarios.
three selected locations -using this configuration- to calculate the
Scenario1 Scenario2 Scenario3 amount of hydrogen produced and the cost of hydrogen production.
Excellent locations 18.1% 9.3% 3.8%
Highly suitable locations 26.5% 25.7% 7.2% 3.2.1. Simulation results
Suitable locations 15.5% 22.8% 9.0%
Before discussing the hydrogen production potential in the selected
Limited suitability locations 7.6% 9.9% 1.3%
Non-suitable locations 32.29% 32.29% 78.68% sites, a the electrical output of the simulated 50 MWp plant is displayed
and analyzed. Fig. 8 shows the monthly electricity production and GHI

units in Eastern Morocco, the next step was to conduct a techno-


economic analysis to determine the amount of hydrogen that could be Table 7
produced together with the cost per kilogram. To achieve this, only the The hot spots selected to conduct the techno-economic analysis.
locations that were ranked as “Excellent” were selected for hosting
Annual GHI (kWh/m2/ Latitude Longitude
hydrogen production units. Subsequently, three locations were chosen, year)
one from each scenario, as reference points for the calculations, as
Hot spot 1 (Scenario 1) 2209 32.61647 − 2.48856
shown in Fig. 7. The selection of these spots is based on the maximum Hot spot 2 (Scenario 2) 2138 32.22124 − 1.58767
GHI value according to the designated scenario (see Table 7): Hot spot 3 (Scenario 3) 1904 34.99949 − 3.06398
Next, in order to conduct the simulations, A PV power plant was

Fig. 7. Selected locations for tecno-economic analysis: (a) Point 1 related to scenario 1, (b) Point 2 related to scenario 2, (c) Point 3 related to scenario 3.

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S.-E. Amrani et al. Energy Conversion and Management 295 (2023) 117615

evident that the hydrogen production follows a similar pattern to the


electricity production, with the lowest and highest amounts being pro­
duced in the same months as the electricity production. This outcome
was expected, as the water electrolysis process is powered by the elec­
tricity generated from the PV plant. Thus, the monthly hydrogen pro­
duction varies from 136 to 172 Tons for the Point 1, from 131 to 176
Tons for Point 2, and from 116 to 156 Tons for Point 3.

3.2.2. Optimal integration scenario for hydrogen units in Eastern Morocco


To evaluate the optimal scenario for hydrogen production and
integration in Eastern Morocco, the simulated results were compared
from a technical and economic point of view using the levelized cost of
hydrogen (LCOH2), levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), annual
hydrogen production, and annual electricity production, as shown in
Table 8.
The data in the table shows that all three sites can produce sub­
stantial amounts of electricity and hydrogen, but the highest amounts
are generated at site P1 with 92.7 GWh of electricity and 1764 tons/year
of green hydrogen, followed by site P2 with 88 GWh and 1675 tons/
year, and finally site P3 with 80 GWh of electricity and 1523 tons/year.
This variation in production is mainly due to the slightly higher solar
irradiation received by site P1, with an annual GHI average of 2210
kWh/m2, compared to 2201 kWh/m2 and 2184 kWh/m2 at sites P2 and
P3, respectively. The production costs of electricity and hydrogen are
proportional to the production, meaning that the higher the production,
the lower the LCOE and LCOH2 will be. As a result, the lowest values are
recorded for Site P1 with an LCOE of 0.061$/kWh and an LCOH2 of
3.690 $/kg. Site P2 follows with an LCOE of 0.064$/kWh and an LCOH2
of 3.836 $/kg. Lastly, the highest production costs are recorded for Site
P3 with an LCOE of 0.071$/kWh and an LCOH2 of 4.188 $/kg.
To better evaluate the standing of Eastern Morocco in the hydrogen
market, a benchmark analysis has been made (see Fig. 10). For this a
comparison of the LCOH2 from Scenario 1 with other values from twelve
countries was undertaken. As it can be observed, Eastern Morocco can be
very competitive in the PV-H2 market as it can produce hydrogen with a
price very close or lower than the neighboring countries, specifically
Spain (with 5.42 $/kg), Egypt and Tunisia (with 4.65 and 3.32 $/kg
respectively).
The above results show that the investigated region represents a
favorable location to host large scale hydrogen production units, and the
hydrogen production can be used either for local needs (transport sector,
or phosphate industry) as well as the export to Europe via the existing
gas pipeline.
To wrap up, the results clearly indicate that the Eastern region of
Fig. 8. Monthly GHI records and electrical production: (a) Point 1, (b) Point 2, Morocco offers an ideal setting for large-scale solar-powered hydrogen
(c) point 3. production. The three integration scenarios examined in this study
demonstrate strong economic competitiveness, resulting in lower
records for each location. hydrogen production costs compared to neighboring countries.
The three locations demonstrate high solar potential, particularly in Furthermore, it represents the most sustainable option by utilizing water
the summer months where the monthly average GHI can reach 350 W/ from renewable sources. However, it is important to note that in desert
m2. During fall and winter, the monthly GHI values are around 140 W/ and semi-arid regions like Morocco, the production of hydrogen may be
m2, which is still considered a good amount of irradiance that can lead influenced by challenging climatic conditions such as soiling [41]. These
to a significant electricity production. For example, at site P1, the lowest conditions can lead to reduced production performance [42] due to the
electricity production was recorded in December with a monthly output deterioration of the optical properties of PV panels [43], as well as po­
of 7139 MWh, while the highest production was recorded in May with tential degradation modes [44], which may impact the overall lifetime
9014 MWh. Site P2 was able to produce electricity in the range between of the plant [45]. Therefore, it is highly recommended to consider these
6657 and 9247 MWh, with the highest and lowest production recorded factors for a comprehensive profitability and economic analysis of PV-
in April and November, respectively. Lastly, at site P3, the electricity H2 projects prior to installation.
production was between 6104 and 8176 MWh, with the highest output
in August and the lowest in November. 3.2.3. Sensitivity analysis
Based on these values, the selected locations can be considered as After conducting the techno-economic analysis this section repre­
very competitive in terms of electricity production, therefore, for host­ sents a sensitivity analysis dedicated to assess the impact of PV tech­
ing green hydrogen production units from solar energy. nologies -mainly the tracking systems- on the amount of the hydrogen
The monthly hydrogen production for the three selected locations production and cost. To do so, simulation runs were conducted -at the
from the three scenarios is depicted in Fig. 9. Upon inspection, it is exact same locations- using the same configuration as reported in the
section above, but considering PV modules with 1-axis and 2-axis

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S.-E. Amrani et al. Energy Conversion and Management 295 (2023) 117615

Fig. 9. Monthly hydrogen production: (a) Point 1, (b) Point 2, (c) point 3.

systems, with production increasing slightly to 2570 tons for scenario 1,


Table 8 2413 tons for scenario 2, and 2207 tons for scenario 3.
Technical and economical results. Regarding the LCOH2, as shown in Fig. 12, the utilization of tracking
P1 P2 P3 systems leads to an increase in the LCOH2. However, when comparing
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 the 1-axis and 2-axis tracking systems with the fixed PV system, the 2-
Annual GHI (kWh/m2) 2209 2138 1904 axis tracking system exhibits a significant increase, while the 1-axis
Annual electricity production (GWh) 98.5 94.2 85.3 system shows a less substantial increase. Specifically, the LCOH2 has
LCOE ($/kWh) 0.061 0.064 0.071 increased from 3.69$/kg, 3.83$/kg, and 4.18$/kg in the case of the
Annual hydrogen production (Tons) 1875 1794 1624
fixed PV system to 4.31$/kg, 4.55$/kg, and 4.93$/kg for the 1-axis
LCOH2 ($/kg) 3.690 3.836 4.188
tracking system. On the other hand, the 2-axis tracking system results
in an LCOH2 of 7.14$/kg, 7.57$/kg, and 8.24$/kg.
tracking systems. It should be noted that the cost of the 1-axis and 2-axis The results of the sensitivity analysis demonstrate that the lowest
tracking system ranges between 135 and 700 $/kW and 600–1900 $/kW cost is achieved with the fixed PV system, whereas the highest hydrogen
respectively [46]. The average value was retained for the present production is obtained with the 2-axis tracking system. However, when
analysis. considering both hydrogen production and the LCOH2, the use of the 1-
The variations in annual hydrogen production for different tracking axis tracking system can be considered an optimal choice. This system
systems are presented in Fig. 11. The impact of sun tracking systems is offers high production levels comparable to the 2-axis tracking system,
clearly observed in all scenarios, especially when compared with fixed while maintaining a cost close to that of the fixed PV system.
PV panels. In fact, hydrogen production has increased from 1875 tons,
1794 tons, and 1623 tons in the case of fixed PV panels to 2480 tons, 4. Conclusion
2330 tons, and 2131 tons when using the 1-axis tracking system in all
assessed scenarios. On the other hand, the increase in hydrogen pro­ With the increasing share of renewable energy in the energy mix of
duction is less significant when comparing the 1-axis and 2-axis tracking several countries, challenges such as grid stability and intermittence
have become critical issues that need to be addressed. Therefore, it is of

Fig. 10. Benchmark of the LCOH2 of the present field of study with different locations.

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S.-E. Amrani et al. Energy Conversion and Management 295 (2023) 117615

utmost importance to connect renewable energy power plants with


3000
reliable, high-performing, and cost-effective storage systems. Green
hydrogen has emerged as a promising alternative to existing storage
Hydrogen production (Tons)

2500
systems, as it stands out as one of the most efficient energy vectors.
2000 However, the production of green hydrogen remains expensive, making
it less competitive in the storage market. Thus, it becomes crucial to
1500
carefully select the locations for installing green hydrogen production
1000
units in a country or region.
This task is not an easy one, as it involves the selection of several
500 criteria related to hydrogen production and the integration of these
criteria using a Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDA) technique. The
0 results of the MCDA are then linked to a GIS software to present the land
PV fix PV 1 axis PV 2 axis
suitability analysis in the form of maps.
P1-Scenario 1 P2-Scenario 2 P3-Scenario 3 In this study, GIS tools were used in conjunction with an Analytical
Hierarchy Process (AHP) model, which, notably, incorporates new
Fig. 11. Annual hydrogen production by the 3 technologies for the 3 scenarios. criteria related to hydrogen production. These criteria include consid­
erations of water sources, as well as economic parameters such as gas
pipelines for export and the electrical grid for backup production. By
evaluating their impact on the suitability analysis and decision-making
9
process, results were applied to Eastern Morocco as a case study.
8
In fact, three different integration scenarios were evaluated based on
7 the water source used for the electrolyzer feed: (i) Surface water (ii)
6 Groundwater (iii) Seawater. After that, for each scenario, the “excellent”
LCOH2 ($/kg)

5 locations for hydrogen production were extracted, and a techno-


4
economic analysis was conducted to determine the amount of
hydrogen produced and the cost per kilogram. Next, the economic
3
outputs were benchmarked with twelve countries to evaluate the posi­
2
tion of the investigated area in the hydrogen market. Finally, a sensi­
1 tivity analysis was conducted to evaluate the impact of the PV
0 technologies on the production and cost.
PV fix PV 1 axis PV 2 axis
The results of the study clearly indicate that the water source
P1-Scenario 1 P2-Scenario 2 P3-Scenario 3 significantly influences the outcomes. In the first scenario, which in­
volves using surface water to feed the electrolyzer, the highest share of
Fig. 12. Variation of the LCOH2 by the 3 technologies for the 3 scenarios. “Excellent” locations for hydrogen production is 18.1%, while “Non-
suitable” locations make up 32.29% of the total. In the second scenario,

Fig. A1. Distance maps: (a) From cities. (b) From power lines.

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S.-E. Amrani et al. Energy Conversion and Management 295 (2023) 117615

Fig. A2. Distance maps: (a) From roads and railways. (b) From power lines.

Fig. A3. Distance maps: (a) From water ways. (b) From underground water.

utilizing water from underground sources, “Excellent” locations account “Excellent” locations represent only 3.8%.
for 9.3%, with “Non-suitable” locations constituting 32.3%. As for the Regarding the techno-economic analysis, the hot-spot from the first
third scenario, which involves the use of seawater, the share of “Non- scenario can produce 1875 tons of hydrogen/year with an LCOH2 of
suitable” locations covers 78.7% of the total land area, while the 3.690 $/kg. In the second scenario, hydrogen production is 1794 tons/

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S.-E. Amrani et al. Energy Conversion and Management 295 (2023) 117615

Fig. A4. Distance maps: (a) From Dams. (b) From sea shore.

year, with an LCOH2 of 3.836 $/kg. As for the third scenario, hydrogen draft.
production amounts to 1624 tons/year, with an LCOH2 of 4.188 $/kg.
This places the Eastern region of Morocco in a highly competitive po­ Declaration of Competing Interest
sition in the PV-H2 market, as it can produce hydrogen at a price very
close to or lower than neighboring countries, particularly Spain (with The authors declare that they have no known competing financial
5.42 $/kg), Egypt (with 4.65 $/kg), and Tunisia (with 3.32 $/kg). interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence
According to the sensitivity analysis, it has been found that the use of the work reported in this paper.
1-axis tracking systems can be an effective solution for optimizing the
operation of PV-H2 units. These systems can produce hydrogen in Data availability
quantities comparable to the 2-axis tracking system, with a difference of
90 tons/year (equivalent to 3.5% of the annual production in the first Data will be made available on request.
scenario). Additionally, the LCOH2 for the 1-axis tracking system is close
to that of the fixed PV system, and the difference is only 0.6 $/kg. Acknowledgement
Based on these results, it can be concluded that the first scenario is
the most optimal for installing large-scale PV-H2 in the Eastern region of Authors would like to warmly acknowledge all the governmental
Morocco, as it offers the highest production at the lowest costs, and also organizations and experts that have been kindly open for the discussions
helps preserve the region’s water sources by using water from renewable on the subject and for providing us with the necessary data and infor­
sources like dams and water ways. mation related to this study.
Finally, it is important to note that the method used in this study can In addition, authors would like to express their profound apprecia­
be generally applied to evaluate the land suitability for hosting tion and gratitude to Dr. Jbaihi Ouafae and Dr. Ouchani Fatima-
hydrogen units in other locations. However, it has some limitations and Zahra for their valuable contributions and advices on the GIS software,
should be adapted to the specific characteristics of each region. Addi­ the data analysis and the development of the AHP model. Their expertise
tionally, the results obtained from this study are considered as a pre­ and dedication significantly enriched the quality of this research, and
liminary assessment or a preferability project phase. Further in-situ without their meaningful involvement, the completion of this work
measurements and data collection will be necessary on the selected lo­ would not have been possible.
cations to refine the model and improve the accuracy of the techno-
economic analysis. Appendix

CRediT authorship contribution statement See Figs. A1, A2, A3, A4.

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