Energy 282 (2023) 128823

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Energy
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Resilience and reliable integration of PV-wind and hydropower based 100%

hybrid renewable energy system without any energy storage system for
inaccessible area electrification
Ahmad Shah Irshad a, b, *, Wais Khan Samadi b, Agha Mohammad Fazli b, Abdul Ghani Noori b,
Ahmad Shah Amin b, Mohammad Naseer Zakir b, Irfan Ahmad Bakhtyal b,
Bashir Ahmad Karimi c, Gul Ahmad Ludin a, Tomonobu Senjyu a
a
Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University of the Ryukyus, Okinawa, 903-0213, Japan
b
Department of Energy Engineering, Engineering Faculty, Kandahar University, Kandahar, 3801, Afghanistan
c
Department of Water and Environmental Engineering, Engineering Faculty, Kandahar University, Kandahar, 3801, Afghanistan

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Handling Editor: G Chicco Achieving sustainable development goals requires off-grid electrification of remote areas using sustainable en­
ergy systems (SES). However, capacity planning for SES is challenging due to the long-term need to meet fluc­
Keywords: tuating demand and the intermittent and unpredictable nature of renewable energy (RE) sources. The best system
Hybrid system size for resilience and reliable load servicing of a 100% hybrid renewable energy system has been investigated in
Load
this study. The ideal system configuration for a hybrid solar PV, wind, and hydro energy system has been
Potential
achieved by applying the multi objective genetic algorithm (MOGA) optimization technique to assess optimal
Configuration
Economic analysis size of the renewable energy system. The PV/Wind/Hydro system has the lowest NPC and COE with the best
target capabilities among all the communities examined, provided the system lasts 25 years, according to the
NPC study. The most ideal configuration (PV 88 kW, wind 18 kW, Hydro1 215 kW, and Hydro2 197 kW)
investigated for deployment of hybrid power system at the specified site has NPC, total system cost, and energy
cost of $163,238 and $517,141, respectively, and $0.35/kWh. Finally, the implementation of this innovative
proposal demonstrated that reliable load serving is possible with 100% renewable energy without the use of an
energy storage device.

1. Introduction
An essential indicator of a country’s socioeconomic development is
sustainable energy use. The energy demand-supply imbalance arises
from rapid population growth, rising living standards, economic
expansion, and constant technological innovation [1–6]. Fossil fuels are
considered the essential energy source, supplying 80% of the world’s
electricity in 2018. This is a 2.9% growth rate, which is worrisome.
However, its reserves are limited and always in short supply to meet the
growing energy demand. In addition, burning fossil fuels produces CO2
emissions that contribute to global climate change, frequent floods, acid
rain, hurricanes, droughts, heat waves, melting of the Arctic ice cap,
pollution, and deforestation [7–12]. In this context, integrating renew­
able energy sources into existing energy grids can provide a long-term
solution for rural electrification while reducing dependence on fossil
fuels [13–17].
Rural electrification is essential to provide energy access to remote
areas. Also, the energy supply can run agricultural machinery in such
locations. Millions of people worldwide in rural areas currently have no
access to the grid. High capital costs, low load factors and poor voltage
regulation make it challenging to electrify these villages with grid
electricity. Therefore, electrification of non-electrified, remote, areas is
challenging, calling for practical solutions to power these locations
[18–21].
The best way to ensure that rural communities can access safe and
reliable electricity is to develop more renewable energy sources. Since
most renewable energy sources are intermittent as they are all weather
dependent, the best way to create them is to combine them into a hybrid
renewable energy system (HRES) [22–24]. Renewable energy genera­
tion is recognized as the most reliable and environmentally friendly
alternative to fossil fuels for lighting off-grid communities [25–28]. A

* Corresponding author. Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University of the Ryukyus, Okinawa, 903-0213, Japan.
E-mail address: irshad786.kdru@gmail.com (A.S. Irshad).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2023.128823
Received 13 February 2023; Received in revised form 21 June 2023; Accepted 18 August 2023
Available online 19 August 2023
0360-5442/Crown Copyright © 2023 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
A.S. Irshad et al.
Abbreviations
SEC Sustainable energy system
RE Renewable energy
MOGA Multi objective genetic algorithm
ESS Energy storage system
MILP Mixed-integer linear programming
PSH Pump storage hydro
PV Photovoltaic
NPC Net present cost
COE Cost of energy
RES Renewable energy sources
RE Renewable energy
HRES Hybrid renewable energy systems
viable approach to achieving safe, reliable, suitable, and green power
generation systems is the integration of solar, wind, and hydropower.
These hybrid energy systems can replace conventional power plants,
decrease emissions of greenhouse gases and secure the environment for
future generations. In addition, developing energy storage systems (ESS)
combined with integrated solar, wind, and hydropower systems will
enable a high share of renewable energy [29,30].
In a remote area of Uttarakhand, India, Bhatt et al. [18] investigated
an off-grid feasibility and sensitivity analysis
micro-hydro-photovoltaic-biomass-biogas-diesel-battery hybrid energy
system. By focusing on economy and environment as the two primary
considerations, they concluded that the Micro Hydro/­
SPV/Biomass/Biogas/Diesel/Battery system was selected as the optimal
configuration. In Ref. [31], research is conducted to integrate modest
hydropower and remote wind PV resources for smooth performance,
and excess energy is stored in batteries. The feasibility and
cost-effectiveness of the system were explained with examples, and
advice was given on developing new hydro-wind PV systems. Bekele &
Tadesse [28] proposed a PV-hydro-wind hybrid system that could pro­
vide continuous power to Ethiopian settlements. Six sites with small
hydro plants have been optimized utilizing HOMER with wind, solar
system, battery, and diesel generators. Al-Ghussain et al. [32] assessed
Jordan’s case study: 100% renewable energy grids for remote rural
helmet electrification. Altamira in Jordan was used as a case study for
this study, investigating the technical, financial, and environmental
benefits of a decentralized hybrid renewable energy system that could
confront the entire energy demand of the city. Integrating energy stor­
age systems with wind, solar, and hydropower tri-hybrid system was
designed to maximize compatibility between energy demand and pro­
duction profiles. The optimization goal, the cost of electricity (COE),
should be kept at the same level as the power purchase price. According
to a techno-economic analysis, Al-Tafilah’s ideal system consists of a 28
MW wind farm, a 75.4 MW solar farm, and a 1 MW hydroelectric power
plant, with a 259 MWh energy storage system. The system can achieve
99% RES and prevents 47,160 Mt of CO2 from being released into the
atmosphere annually.
Using mixed-integer linear programming (MILP), Chen et al. [33]
considered the idea of a WT-PSH (pump storage hydropower) hybrid on
an Island, close to Taiwan. The authors searched for ideal configurations
of power installed in WT, PSH, and conventional power plants. Jurasz
et al. [34] evaluated the integration of hybrid hydro and pumped
infrastructure and wind and solar energy sources into the power grid.
Results show that such hybrid power sources significantly reduce the
total amount of energy exchanged with the grid and minimize the rate of
increase of these values. Collecting water using available flow eliminates
oversizing PV and WT installed power. Ren et al. [35] studied opera­
tional strategies for microgrid-based hybrid wind/PV/small hydro/­
enhanced farming systems. The operational plan outlined in this study
2
Energy 282 (2023) 128823
MPSO Multi-objective particle swarm optimization
O&M Operation and maintenance
CO2 Carbon dioxide
LPSP Losses of power supply probability
REF Renewable energy fraction
CRF Capital recovery factor
AC Alternating current
DC Direct current
NOCT Nominal operating condition temperature
GHI Global horizontal Irradiation
kW Kilo watt
kWh Kilo watt hour
WT Wind turbine
SHP Small hydro power
maximizes the use of wind and solar resources and cost-effectively al­
locates hydropower resources. The operating strategy described in this
study provides the basis for capacity allocation and planning in a hybrid
system. Arevalo et al. [36] Designed plans for the power systems of
Santa Cruz and Baltra islands in the Galapagos Islands (Ecuador) uti­
lizing various renewable energy technologies. The amount of energy
required is 73 GWh per year. Using a 25.4 MW solar PV system and a
2.25 MW wind power system to fulfill 100% of the energy demand is the
optimal solution for energy generation. After testing the lithium-ion
battery system, the surplus energy is stored in a pump storage system.
HOMER was used to run the simulations. For a residential neighborhood
of 50 dwellings in a coastal region of Newfoundland (Canada), the
techno-economic optimization of a zero-emission energy system was
assessed by Islam et al. [13] Solar PV, wind, and hydroelectric systems
supply the energy, while a pumped hydro storage device stores excess
energy. HOMER software was used to run the simulation. To electrify
coastal villages, the sustainability of a pumped-storage grid/PV/wind
power system was investigated by Nyeche et al. [37]. This technology
could provide clean energy for just 0.27 cents per kWh. Recently, Xu
et al. [38] used multi-objective particle swarm optimization (MPSO) to
optimize a PV/wind/hydro/PHS-based hybrid system for a standalone
application in China. They argued that the suggested hybrid system
could provide reliable power with a COE of $0.2345/kWh. However,
they did not present a comprehensive uncertainty analysis or compare
the optimized design to battery-based hybrid possibilities.
1.1. Contributions of this work
As seen from the literature, there is still no research conducted to
analyze and design PV-wind and hydropower hybrid systems without
any other energy storage system to cover 100% demand of the com­
munity and operate reliably throughout the year in the scenario of
electrification of rural areas. This research fills this gap to evaluate the
techno-economic prospects of thri renewable energy hybrid system. This
is the first paper focusing on renewable energy hybrid systems for rural
electrification in Afghanistan to design resilience and reliable integra­
tion of PV-wind and hydropower-based hybrid systems that can serve
the load and maintain sustainability in severe climate change and
change in environmental conditions. The scientific aim of this paper is to
focus on and promote the idea of utilizing the available resources in
rural areas and reduce their dependence on other equipment like energy
storage technologies. The implication of this idea will pave the way for
researchers to evaluate optimal hybrid renewable energy systems
without energy storage systems for designing hybrid renewable energy
systems. Because considering the energy storage system for a hybrid
model increases the cost of the project.
The key contributions of this paper stem from the gaps above in the
literature and are as follows:
A.S. Irshad et al.
✓ Modeling and optimization of three HRES, including solar, wind, and
hydropower systems.
✓ In this study, four objective functions, i.e., NPC, COE, pollution
reduction, and load serving, are considered when optimizing the
various configurations. The multi-objective genitic algorithm
(MOGA) method is used to tackle the optimization problem.
✓ Model 100% renewable energy hybrid system with complete reli­
ability and resilience power serving in severe conditions without
considering any energy storage system.
✓ Indicate the positive effects of hybrid renewable energy systems on
Afghanistan’s economy, sustainable development, and environment.
Based on a comparison of the COE and NPC values, choose the
optimal HRES system.
The implementation area for this study is Kandahar, located in the
southwest zone of Afghanistan (latitude: 31◦ 28′36", longitude:
67◦ 20′51"), illustrated in Fig. 1 rich of the plentiful solar energy re­
sources while the people suffer from a lack of electricity, especially in
rural areas in this province. The current electricity production, 40 MW
solar and 20 MW hydro from neighbor province, Helmand even cannot
fulfill the demand of the city [39,40]. This has led to poverty and un­
developed social life in the region’s remote villages. It is in the case that
there are plenty of renewable energy resources in this region, such as
solar, wind, and hydropower, which still exist in stock. Recently, the
government intended to construct a small multi-purpose dam (Lura
Dam) on the Arghastan river to control floods during rainy seasons,
irrigation of the devastated lands, and power production for the elec­
trification of this region. Meanwhile, solar energy potential grads so
high for the southwest zone of Afghanistan than in other areas, espe­
cially for the proposed site. Despite solar energy, near the selected re­
gion, wind speed is at the highest range compared to other places in this
province depicted in Fig. 2. These resources and demand for electricity
initiated the need for research to analysis and design microgrid systems
for sustainable and resilience power production from renewable energy
in the proposed site. The purpose of this research is to design and
evaluate a PV-wind and hydro 100% hybrid energy system based on
actual data of the site under consideration for electrification of Argha­
stan and Marouf district, that will improve the social life of people,
remove poverty in the region and prepare the way for sustainable
development. This paper considers such a microgrid that does not
contain any type of energy storage and at the same time entire load
demand is fulfilled through renewable energy resources.
The following is how the material of this article is organized: Section
2 begins with technique and moves on to the location of the study area,
mathematical models, system design, atmospheric profile, and stock
evaluation. Section 3 presented and reviewed the results of the HRES
Fig. 1. Solar energy potential in Kandahar.
3
Energy 282 (2023) 128823
simulation as well as the recommended year-round optimization. Sec­
tion 4 summarizes the specifics of our findings.
2. Methodology
The following procedures are intended to be considered for con­
ducting this research:
2.1. Idea description
A novel idea is assessed in this study to utilize renewable energy
resources for resilience and reliable power supply without using any
type of energy storage system. The 100% hybrid renewable energy
system consisting solar PV, wind turbine and hydro generator is pro­
posed in this study to supply reliable power to a community without
considering any energy storage system. The detailed flow chart of the
simulation is illustrated in Fig. 3. Using multi objective genetic algo­
rithm (MOGA), the hybrid tri renewable energy system is simulated in
the following order:
1. The total stored water in dam for hydro power generation is
considered in to two parts: Hydro1 = 75% and hydro2 = 25%.
2. The base load is fed through PV, wind, and hydro1 (75% of water is
used in this stage).
3. The peak load is arranged to be fed through grid and at the same time
the energy bought from the grid is restricted and the model in
MATLAB is arranged such that minimize the grid purchased energy
and maximize renewable.
4. The grid sell is supposed to be zero.
5. After the entire load is served throughout the year with the help of
these resources, the total annual energy bought from grid is
calculated.
6. The energy that could be produced by 25% stored water is
calculated.
7. If the annual energy bought from the grid is equal to the energy
produced by 25% stored water, then the grid is replaced through
hydro2 using 25% remaining water for peak load serving.
8. If the energy bought from the grid is more than the energy produced
through 25% stored water, then the amount of stored water is
increased to 25.2% and amount of water for power generation for
base load complement together with wind and PV is decreased to
74.8% and the model is run as explained in bullet 2.
9. Then the total yearly energy purchased from grid is compared with
energy produced by stored water, if the two sides equals then process
is proceeded as indicated in bullet 7. Otherwise, the process is
A.S. Irshad et al. Energy 282 (2023) 128823

Fig. 2. Wind energy potential in Kandahar.

Fig. 3. Main flow chart of HRES.

repeated as illustrated in bullet 8 up to the time when grid purchased
energy equals the energy that could be produced by stored water.
2.2. System description
Fig. 4 depicts the suggested hybrid PV/wind/and hydro power
configuration. “The system comprised of a PV array, wind turbine (WT),
hydro turbine, inverter/converter, and MPPT controller. The DC bus is
powered by the PV array, while the wind turbine and hydro turbine
supplies the AC power to the load. Connected to the bus, the inverter
converts the DC output power of the PV array to AC to deliver the load
along with the AC output power of the wind and hydro generator. The
system is easy to operate as the loads are powered by three renewable
power sources (PV, WT, and hydro) and there is not any backup power
source as depicted in Fig. 4. The load is primarily served through PV,
wind and a portion of water is used for hydro power production. If the
difference in performance and load of the system minus (− ), then the
amount of water passing through hydro turbine increase to provide the

4
A.S. Irshad et al.
Fig. 4. The 100% hybrid renewable energy system schematic diagram.
load, and if the difference between renewable resources and load is
positive (+), then the water passing through hydro turbine decrease to
meet the load efficiently.
2.3. Photovoltaic model
Everyone is aware that PV energy systems use PV modules to
generate direct current from solar radiation and. Strings or PV arrays can
be formed by connecting them in series or parallel. In order to supply an
electrical load from a photovoltaic power generation system, it is
necessary to install an inverter that converts the output DC power into
AC power and supplies the required energy to the load. The output
power of a PV system is hindered by solar radiation, temperature, and
cell type. PV output power varies inversely with temperature while
exhibiting a direct relationship with changes in solar irradiance. The
cost of purchasing, replacing, and maintaining solar PV system is esti­
mated at $883/kW, with replacement costs accounting for 90% of
capital costs and annual O&M costs of 1%. Moreover, the module has a
service life of 25 years. The number of solar modules required depends
on the load and the position of the sun. Solar panel performance is
affected by environmental and structural factors such as wind speed,
temperature and solar radiation. We calculated the PV output power
using Eq (1) [41–48].
IT
PPV = YPV × fPV × × {1 + α(Tc − TS )}
1000
where PPV is the solar panel’s rated power, fPV is the derating factor (to
account for panel dust loss and ambient temperature effects), IT repre­
sents the total sun exposure incidence on the solar module (W/m2), α
accounts the temperature coefficient (%/◦ C), TC stands for the cell
temperature, and TS is used for the cell temperature under standard test
conditions (STC). The cell temperature is calculated from Eq. (2) [38,49,
50].
{ }
NOCT − 20 IT
Tc (t) = Ta (t) + × (2)
0.8 IS
Where Ta (t) represents the ambient temperature (◦ C), IS indicates the
radiation at standard test condition and NOCT stands for the nominal
operating cell temperature (◦ C).
2.4. Inverter specifications
Inverters are needed to maintain a balance in the energy flow be­
tween AC and DC components. Inverters convert DC to AC. Standalone
inverters are intended for use in off-grid power grids. As a result, remote
hybrid systems can use it. Most of today’s inverters have a conversion
Energy 282 (2023) 128823
efficiency of 90% or higher when converting DC to AC. Depending on
the application, the inverter’s size varies. A hybrid off-grid system’s
required number of inverters can subsequently be determined using Eq
(2a) [51,52].
PL
Ninv = (2a)
Pinv
where Ninv, indicates the number of needed inverters. PL is the maximum
load power, and Pinv is the inverter power.
2.5. Wind energy model
A number of factors, including the fact that the quantity of energy
available triples with increasing wind speed, affect the power output of a
wind turbine at a specific site. At altitude, the wind is blowing faster and
more continuously. Temperature also has an effect, as cold air leads to
greater energy levels. The capital costs for wind turbine are estimated to
be $1300/kW. While replacement and O&M costs are 90% and 1.5% of
capital costs of turbines, respectively. The amount of energy that can be
extracted from a wind turbine is roughly proportional to the swept area
of the rotor. Eq. (3) equations can be used to calculate its performance
[53–58].
Pr = 0.5 × CP × ηt × ηG × ρ × A × v3 (3)
(1)
where Pr indicates wind power, CP stands for the power coefficient, ηt is
the efficiency of the turbine, ηG is generator efficiency, A is swept area of
the rotor, and v3 is threefold of wind speed.
The power output of a wind turbine is calculated using the manu­
facturer’s characteristic curve and the power law formula for wind speed
at hub height, as shown in Eq (4) [59–64].
{ }α
V
=
z
(4)
V0 z0
where (v) stands for wind speed at the hub height (z), (v0) indicates the
wind speed recorded at the reference height (z0 = 50 m), and (α) is the
surface friction factor. An indicative value for the friction coefficient of
the ground surface is (0.143).
Three wind speeds—the wind turbine cut-in speed, cut-off speed, and
rated speed—determine the power output of a wind turbine. The wind
turbine’s output power will be small if the wind speed is lower than the
cut-in speed (considered zero). As a result, the WT is in “standing” mode.
Additionally, the WT should be stopped in an emergency or if the wind
speed exceeds the cut-off speed. As the wind speed varies within toler­
ance, the output energy has a cubic relationship with wind speed.
Aerodynamic performance control is used to change the maximum rated
5
A.S. Irshad et al.
power output when the wind speed is between the cut-off value and the
rating. The mathematical expressions for wind power calculation at
different wind speeds is described in Eq. (5) [65–72].
⎛ ⎧
⎪ 0, v < vcut− in or v > vcut− out
⎪
⎪
⎜ ⎪
⎨ cost of energy; Cannual, total indicates the total annualized cost in $/year;
⎜ V 3 − Vcut−
3
Pw = ⎜ in
⎜f (v) = ⎪ Pr × V 3 − V 3 , vcut− in ≤ v ≤ vr (5)
⎝ ⎪
⎪ r cut− in
⎪
⎩
Pr , vr < v < vcut− out
2.6. Hydropower model
The goal of a hydroelectric system is to convert the potential energy
of water flowing in a water stream at a specific gradient into electrical
energy in a turbine located at the bottom of the system where the turbine
house is located. The output of the turbine is proportional to flow rate
and head. The proposed hydroelectric generator consumes water from
the dam, so the most practical way to measure the head is from the water
surface to the penstock. Water is supplied to the turbine from the
headwater reservoir through a pressure line. Typically, this type of
installation uses special valves to remove energy from the bottom of the
pipes entering the water treatment plant. Installing turbines at the ends
of pipes to convert otherwise lost energy into electricity is an attractive
alternative if the phenomenon of water hammer is avoided. Over­
pressure from water hammer is especially dangerous if the turbine is
installed on an aging penstock. A system of bypass valves should be
installed to ensure continuous water supply. The capital cost for hydro
power generation is estimated to be $2000/kW. While replacement and
O&M costs are 90% and 1% of capital costs, respectively. The turbine
and generator efficiencies are considered to be 93% and 90%, respec­
tively. The output power of a hydro power plant is calculated through
Eq. (6) [73–78].
PH = 9.81 × ηt × ηG × ρ × Q × h (6)
where, h indicates the net head which considers the losses (friction,
bent, track rash and outlet), Q stands for the discharge of the selected
hydro turbine, ρ is the density of water in kg/m3, ηt, ηg are the effi­
ciencies of the turbine and generator, respectively.
2.7. Economics
Proposed models are selected based on the profitability of each
system. This provides a preliminary quantitative assessment of the
economic impact of project financing. To better understand the socio-
environmental benefits of projects that can effectively represent the
sustainability of the system, the information sought by policy makers
and stakeholders is the cost of electricity (COE) and net present cost
(NPC). COE is calculated by dividing annual fixed, semi fixed and
running cost of the project on energy generation during the entire year.
The net present cost is determined by subtracting the present value of
project cash outflows from the present value of project cash inflows over
a specific period. Eqs (7)–(9) are used for calculating net present cost
(NPC), capital recovery factor (CRF) and cost of electricity (COE)
[79–81].
{ }
Cannual,total
NPC = (7)
CRF (i, N)
where, NPC shows net present cost, Cannual, total stands for total annual
cost, i indicates yearly real interest rate, N represents the life time of
project and CRF(i,N) demonstrates the capital recovery factor [10,
82–86].
{ }
i(1 + i)N
CRF = (8)
(1 + i)N − 1
6
Energy 282 (2023) 128823
( $ ) {C }
COE =
annual,total
(9)
kWh Et
where (CRF) demonstrates capital recovery factor, COE stands for the
Et is the total energy production over the year (kWh/year).
2.8. Resources assessment: solar, wind and hydro power potential at the
site
Another important factor in choosing the right technology for a
hybrid configuration is resource evaluation. Component size and
optimal COE are determined primarily by existing resources and
appropriate energy mix. This study suggests a hybrid system with zero
emissions. A thorough resource evaluation is therefore necessary to
ensure operational sustainability, reliability, and success. Backup power
sources such as diesel generators or batteries were not included in the
study due to the abundance of hydro, solar and wind resources at the
selected sites. We can use the best available weather information to
determine the most accurate resource for a given location. For a pro­
posed community, the weather data center module of NASA is utilized to
extract solar energy data, including GHI, wind speed, and average
monthly temperature. Fig. 5 depicts the changing in the GHI which
reaches up to 1077 Wh/m2, with a standard deviation of 332.2 Wh/m2.
Fig. 6 illustrates the average monthly temperature for the chosen site.
These numbers show that the temperature ranges between the lowest
and greatest values are (− 10.89 ◦ C) in January and (35.15 ◦ C) in August,
respectively. In addition, the study area is well above sea level and lies in
a windy zone. The area therefore offers a tremendous potential for wind
energy, which may be exploited to produce power by picking the right
wind turbines. At 50 m above sea level, the location experiences winds
with a range between 0.04 and 19.58 m/s and an annual average of 5.1
m/s. This makes them suitable for the development of pure, emission-
free wind energy, displayed in Fig. 7. In the case of hydropower, the
total amount of water stored at the dam during the year is 40 × 106 m3
with a net head of 30 m. From the total amount of water, one million of
that is considered to be permanently stored in dam for fishes. As this is a
power dam, the remaining water is discharged in two portions for base
load and peak load together with PV and wind.
2.9. The load distribution profile
Load demand analysis is a critical step in planning and implementing
energy initiatives. Because it provides information about different types
of electrical equipment, their nominal power and their capabilities.
Therefore, a thorough survey of the community’s load is required to
determine the most acceptable load demand. The load profile consid­
ered in this study is typical of two districts of Afghanistan. This paper
considers two load categories: One for summer and one for winter. The
daily load energy is 6497 kWh for the summer profile and 5732 kWh for
the winter profile. After both were measured for one-year, hourly av­
erages were determined explained in Fig. 8.
2.10. Problem formulation
The major goal of this study is to identify the most cost-effective
combination of component quantities for hybrid renewable energy
systems. The losses of power supply probability (LPSP) and cost of en­
ergy (COE) were reduced using the MOGA approach, and the third target
function—maximizing the system’s share of renewable energy—was
determined by Eqs (10)–(12). Because there is a trade-off between the
three target functions, the designer must use a compromise between the
three goals in order to achieve the optimal outcome. For example,
optimizing RE and limiting LPSP will raise the overall system cost, which
will increase the COE.
A.S. Irshad et al. Energy 282 (2023) 128823

Fig. 5. Hourly profile of solar radiation for the entire year.

Fig. 6. Hourly temperature variation over the year.

Fig. 7. Hourly profile of wind speed for selected site.

Obj1 = Min (COE) (10) 3. Results and discussion

Obj2 = Min (LPSP) (11) Finding the most affordable combination of components for 100%
hybrid renewable energy systems is the main objective of this research.
Obj3 = Max (RE) (12) The technological robustness of optimized HRES is examined for smooth
The constraints of this study are to manage the resources to keep the and consistent electricity supply in a variety of weather circumstances
power losses zero and increase renewable energy, while renewable en­ and load profiles. As shown in Fig. 3, the system comprises of PV panels,
ergy is weather dependent. wind turbine with a hub height of 50 m, a hydropower plant, an inverter
and a load. Simulate and optimize HRES systems is performed through

7
A.S. Irshad et al.
Fig. 8. Hourly load profile for the entire year.
multi-objective genetic algorithms. Simulation results show that there
are 18 ideal HRES systems that can meet the required load throughout
the year. Each COE value is best suited for each boundary condition and
scenario component size among those determined by simulation rounds.
An increasing COE indicates that system reliability is declining and
growing demands are not being met. At low COEs, the power generation
equations and input data simulate a perfectly reliable system capable of
withstanding all loads.
Assuming the system lasts 25 years, the NPC analysis illustrates that
the PV/Wind/Hydro system has the lowest NPC and COE with the best
target capabilities among all the communities studied. NPC, total system
cost, and cost of energy for the most ideal configuration (PV 88 kW,
wind 18 kW, Hydro1 215 kW and Hydro2 197 kW) investigated for
hybrid power system implementation at the selected site are $163,238
and $517,141, and $0.35/kWh, respectively. The lowest COE means
that HRES is cheaper in rural southwestern Afghanistan. Figs. 9–20
indicate the monthly power generation by PV, wind, hydro1 and hydro2
(grid replaced) for 12 months of the year. During this period, the
maximum amount of energy is generated by hydro1 system followed by
hydro2 (grid replaced), PV and wind. From these figures it is revealed
that there is not any excess energy beyond the load to be wasted during
the entire year.
According to the suggested system, hydropower would be used to
meet the base load throughout the day, solar would be used to meet the
peak load, and wind would be used to supply some of the remaining
load. However, during the night, hydropower is used to meet the base
load, and in the event of a peak load, wind energy is prioritized to fulfill
the demand; otherwise, hydropower is used to meet the residual load
Fig. 9. PV, wind, hydro, and load profile in January.
8
Energy 282 (2023) 128823
that could not be met by wind energy. While hydro is employed as the
basic and principal sources to supply the base load and peak demand in
the absence of other resources, solar and wind are unstable and unpre­
dictable resources. Storage water is dependent on the rain and rainy
season to be used for power generation, and in this study, storage water
for hydropower production is defined as the smallest quantity of water
held in a year. The minimal quantity of rainfall evaluated in this analysis
to supply the load reliably even in starvation is based on data records of
yearly rain occurring in the catchment region of the planned dam.
Furthermore, the water conserved during the rainy season will be used
all year. It indicates that, owing to global climate change, the amount of
rain may be too low at times, however in this study, the minimal amount
of yearly rainfall is considered. As a result, the system is completely
reliable throughout the year.
The total amount of energy generated is depicted in Fig. 21, which
shows that 76% of the load is fed through hydro1, the remaining water
stored (hydro2) for peak load feeding serves 19% of total load, PV serves
only 4% of the load due to the limitation of excess energy beyond the
load, and wind energy serves 2% of the load due to unreliable produc­
tion. As a result, the load is 100% reliably fed by these resources, and
there is no excess energy to waste because the system lacks a storage
system and is not connected to the grid.
Initially, the system was designed so that about 75% percent of the
water would be used for base load and the remaining would be used for
peak load serving. To promote this topology, we first optimized the
system with Hydro1, PV, wind, and grid connected mode, and after
many iterations, we found that the total amount of energy purchased
from the grid is equal to the sum of all energy that could be produced by
A.S. Irshad et al. Energy 282 (2023) 128823

Fig. 10. PV, wind, hydro, and load profile in February.

Fig. 11. PV, wind, hydro, and load profile in March.

Fig. 12. PV, wind, hydro, and load profile in April.

remaining water (hydro2). Then the grid was replaced with hydro2, and
the amount of discharge was calculated based on the electricity bought
from the grid over the course of the year, and thus the schedule for water
discharge was created as displayed in Fig. 22. The maximum discharge
occurs reaches 0.8 m3/s for hydro2.
The total discharge (for hydro1 and hydro2) illustrated in Fig. 23
reveals that the water discharge for hydro1 is constant during the year
with a rate of 0.92 m3/s and hence the total maximum discharge is 1.72
m3/s occurring in July where the load is at height at this stage. The
water used for hydro1 makes up 72% of total water stored at the dam
while hydro2 makes up the remaining 28% of that explained in Fig. 24.
The PV and wind resources are uncontrollable due to the intermittent
resource, and we have used them in a free area for energy production.
While hydro power which can be fully controlled and has the ability to
tackle change, in the power production identically in a very short
moment i.e., in a second of time period is used for the based load and

9
A.S. Irshad et al. Energy 282 (2023) 128823

Fig. 13. PV, wind, hydro, and load profile in May.

Fig. 14. PV, wind, hydro, and load profile in June.

Fig. 15. PV, wind, hydro, and load profile in July.

peak. So now, when the peak load goes up and comes down, the hydro2
turbine capacity increases and decreases, respectively accordingly to the
load. Finally, as can be seen in Figs. 9–20, during the whole year, there
was no shortage and load shading in the load. Hence, the load is supplied
100% reliable and tenable.
According to the literature, the cost of energy in the case of 100%
renewable energy system without any energy resources appears to be
very low when compared to other research conducted in a similar field.
Table 1 compares the COE and net current cost of prior studies to this
research and shows that the cost of energy is lowest for this hybrid
system.
3.1. Environmental benefits of the 100% renewable energy system
With a global objective of zero carbon emissions, the GHG emissions
averted by installing HRES are compared to grid-connected where

10
A.S. Irshad et al. Energy 282 (2023) 128823

Fig. 16. PV, wind, hydro, and load profile in August.

Fig. 17. PV, wind, hydro, and load profile in September.

Fig. 18. PV, wind, hydro, and load profile in October.

conventional energy sources continue to dominate the energy mix. The
difference between the yearly embodied carbon of all HRES components
combined and the equivalent energy CO2 emissions from grid feeding
determines the total emission reduction. The grid emission factor is set
at 0.83 kg/kWh [69]. The total CO2 emission reduction in this system by
PV, wind, and hydro is 2,455,181 kg.
4. Conclusion
The best size for a 100% hybrid renewable energy system in terms of
resilience and reliable load servicing has been investigated in this study.
The ideal system configuration for a hybrid solar PV, wind, and hydro
energy system has been achieved by applying the MOGA optimization
technique to determine the optimal size of the renewable energy system.
The PV/Wind/Hydro system has the lowest NPC and COE with the best

11
A.S. Irshad et al.
Fig. 19. PV, wind, hydro, and load profile in November.
Fig. 20. PV, wind, hydro, and load profile in December.
Fig. 21. Total energy generated by PV, wind, hydro1, and hydro2.
target capabilities among all the communities examined, provided the
system lasts 25 years, according to the NPC study. The NPC, total system
cost, and energy cost for the most ideal configuration (PV 88 kW, wind
12
Energy 282 (2023) 128823
18 kW, Hydro1 215 kW, and Hydro2 197 kW) examined for hybrid
power system deployment at the given location are $163,238 and
$517,141, respectively, and $0.35/kWh.
Hydro1 feeds 76% of the load; hydro2 which stores the leftover
water for peak load feeding serves 19% of total load; PV only serves 4%
of the load due to the restriction on extra energy beyond the demand;
and wind energy only serves 2% of the load due to unstable production.
As a result, the load is 100% reliably fed by these resources, and as the
system lacks a storage system and is not wired to the grid, there is no
extra energy to waste. The combined discharge (for hydro1 and hydro2)
shows that hydro1 has a constant annual water flow rate of 0.92 m3/s; as
a result, the combined maximum discharge is 1.72 m3/s. 72% of the total
water stored at the dam is made up by the water utilized for hydro1, and
the remaining 28% is made up by hydro2. Considering the 0.83 kg/kWh
grid emission factor this system reduces CO2 emissions by 2,455,181 kg
in total. Finally applying this novel idea proved that serving the load
with 100% renewable energy without any energy storage system is
possible for reliable load serving.
Credit author statement
Ahmad Shah Irshad: Conceptualization; Data curation; Formal
analysis; Investigation; Methodology; Original draft preparation; Visu­
alization, Investigation; Resources and Software. Wais Khan Samadi:
Visualization, Investigation, Reviewing and Editing. Agha Mohammad
Fazli: Visualization, Investigation, Reviewing and Editing. Abdul Ghani
Noori: Visualization, Investigation, Reviewing and Editing. Ahmad Shah
Amin: Visualization, Investigation, Reviewing and Editing. Mohammad
A.S. Irshad et al. Energy 282 (2023) 128823

Fig. 22. Amount of discharge water for hydro2 turbine.

Fig. 23. Annual discharge rate for hydro1 and hydro2.

Table 1
Comparison of current study in relation to other studies.
References Optimization Configuration NPC ($) COE
model ($/kWh)

[87] HOMER PV/BT/WT 391,492 0.47

[88] HOMER PV/BT/DG/ 288,194 1.877
WT
[89] HOMER PV/BT/DG/ 673,147 0.42
SHP
[90] MATLAB PV/BT/WT – 0.56
[91] GOA PV/BT/DG/ 47,572 0.36
WT
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WT
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[94] HOMER PV/DG/BT/ 359,465 0.45
WT
[95] GA PV/BT/WT – 0.85
Current MOGA PV/wind/ 163,238 0.35
study hydro

Nasir Zakir: Reviewing. Irfan Ahmad Bakhtyal: Reviewing. Bashir

Ahmad Karimi: Reviewing. Gul Ahmad Ludin: Reviewing. Tomonobu
Fig. 24. Amount of Water discharge for hydro 1 and hydro 2. Senjyu: Data curation, Supervision; Validation and Visualization.

13
A.S. Irshad et al. Energy 282 (2023) 128823

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