International Journal of Psychology

International Journal of Psychology, 2018

Vol. 53, No. 6, 426–432, DOI: 10.1002/ijop.12403

Predictors of developing mathematics anxiety among

middle-school students: A 2-year prospective study

Nir Madjar1 , Gil Zalsman2,3,4,5 , Abraham Weizman2,3,5 , Shaul Lev-Ran3,6 , and

Gal Shoval2,3
1 School of Education, Bar-Ilan University, Ramat Gan, Israel
2 Child and Adolescents’ Psychiatry Division, Geha Mental Health Center, Petach Tikva, Israel
3
Sackler Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
4 Division of Molecular Imaging and Neuropathology, Department of Psychiatry, Columbia

University, New York, NY, USA

5 Felsenstein Medical Research Center, Sackler Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Rabin

Medical Center, Petah Tikva, Israel

6
Sheba Medical Center, Ramat Gan, Israel

W hile there is an abundance of research pertaining to the development of anxiety disorders, there is still a dearth
of knowledge regarding the development of anxiety in the general population. The objective of this study was to
longitudinally explore the development of mathematics anxiety among normative middle-school students, and to identify
the moderating role of gender, school transition and scholastic achievements on these trajectories. Subjects included 413
sixth grade students (53.3% females, mean age 11.27 ± 0.38 years). Participants were evaluated for their level of anxiety
in the context of mathematics, using the Value of Education scale, in four time-points with a 6-month gap between each
time-point. Data regarding subjects’ grades and school transition were also collected. A growth curve analysis using
hierarchical linear modelling revealed that girls, students who transitioned between schools and high achievers (each
independently) reported a significant increase in mathematics related anxiety towards the end of sixth grade, which later
decreased during seventh grade. The findings of this prospective study on factors affecting the development of mathematics
anxiety among normative adolescents may be important in planning focused primary prevention school-based strategies.

Keywords: Mathematics anxiety; Educational psychology; Gender; School transition; Normative population.

Worries and concerns regarding academic tasks and
achievements are important aspects of general function-
ing and behaviour among adolescents. While previous
research has explored the characteristics and develop-
ment of pathological anxiety, less emphasis has been
given to levels of anxiety within the general population,
although these may substantially impact prospective
adjustment and well-being (Eccles, 2005). Therefore,
mental health practitioners and researchers can benefit
from understanding the antecedents and developmental
trajectories of anxiety regarding academic tasks in the
general adolescent population.
Maladaptive worries and concerns may be precursors
to future development of an anxiety disorder (Muris,
Merckelbach, Mayer, & Prins, 2000). Moreover, for
some individuals, normal childhood fears may be an
antecedent to the development of future anxiety disorders
(Muris et al., 2000). Recent findings indicate that, among
undergraduate students, some levels of anxiety increase
attention and control, but only under conditions of "high
cognitive load" (Najmi, Wegner, & Nock, 2007). These
findings further emphasise the need to explore the devel-
opment and potential implications of anxious symptoms
among students.
The expectancy-value theory (Eccles, 2005) is a theo-
retical framework which established a validated measure
to assess aspects of domain-specific anxiety in the general
population. The expectancy-value theory posits that out-
come expectancies and the values ascribed to a given task
determine one’s choices and performance in that specific

Correspondence should be addressed to Nir Madjar, School of Education, Bar-Ilan University, Ramat-Gan, 5290002 Israel. (E-mail:
nir.madjar@biu.ac.il).

© 2016 International Union of Psychological Science


context. One of these values is the subjective psychologi-
cal cost one is expected to experience while conducting a
given task. For example, the feeling that one is spending
too much time or effort, risking social relationships, etc. in
order to properly accomplish a task, would be considered
as perceived psychological cost. (Flake, Barron, Hulle-
man, McCoach, & Welsh, 2015). Our study is focused on
the emotional aspect of psychological cost, which include
the worries and concerns towards a specific task (Conley,
2012; Perez, Cromley, & Kaplan, 2014), within the con-
text of mathematics (i.e., mathematics-related anxiety).
The expectancy-value theoretical framework describes
several personal and contextual factors that may explain
the development of subjectively perceived psychological
cost and the magnitude of these subjectively perceived
costs. Factors found to be most significantly associated
with psychological cost among the general adolescent
population include gender, school transitions and previ-
ous domain-specific achievements (Eccles, 2005).
Gender and anxiety
Anxiety disorders are generally more prevalent among
women compared to men (Pigott, 1999). Previous studies
show that girls report higher levels of mathematics anx-
iety (MA) compared to boys; however, when controlling
for test anxiety it was negatively associated with school
performance only for girls (Devine, Fawcett, Szűcs, &
Dowker, 2012), and when controlling for general anxi-
ety it was negatively associated with performance only
for secondary school students (Hill et al., 2016). In other
words, some personal and contextual factors may mod-
erate the relationships between gender and MA. Accord-
ingly, these complex relationships, as well as other related
outcomes, still require additional research (for review, see
Dowker, Sarkar, & Looi, 2016).
Gender difference also persists in the evaluation of
self-competence and anxiety in various domains besides
mathematics. For example, as children mature, girls tend
to rate their language abilities higher than boys, whereas
boys rate their abilities in mathematics higher (Wigfield,
Eccles, Schiefele, Roeser, & Davis-Kean, 2007). Further-
more, girls and women are generally more likely to expe-
rience a decrease in their self-evaluation following neg-
ative feedback, ascribe their failures to internal reasons
and report higher levels of general academic-related anx-
iety (e.g., regarding tests, homework assignments, etc.)
compared to boys (for review, see Butler, 2014). These
findings suggest that gender may play an important role
in the development of MA as well.
School transitions
Students worldwide experience at least one school tran-
sition during their formal education period. It has been
© 2016 International Union of Psychological Science
DEVELOPMENT OF MATHEMATICS ANXIETY 427
suggested that this transition is a fundamental crossroad
in peoples’ lives with implications on several psycho-
logical aspects, such as increase in depressive symp-
toms and decrease in self-esteem (see reviews: Hanewald,
2013; Symonds & Galton, 2014). Specifically within the
mathematics domain it was found that students reported
lower levels of motivational orientations throughout mid-
dle school (Middleton, Kaplan, & Midgley, 2004).
However, the effect of school transition on students’
well-being is still under dispute. For instance, although
students who transitioned at the end of sixth grade
reported lower self-esteem and higher rates of being bul-
lied by other children compared to students who remained
at the same elementary school, there were no signifi-
cant differences in students’ achievements, school absen-
teeism, suspensions, senses of safety, or positive attitudes
towards school between early and late transition (Weiss
& Kipnes, 2006). Therefore, it is still important to explore
the implications of school transition in the context of MA,
and especially to distinguish between changes occurring
as a result of normal developmental and changes related to
the school transition itself. Such distinctions may require
longitudinal studies following students at similar devel-
opmental stages, in which some experience a transition
and others do not.
Prior achievements
Past successful or unsuccessful experiences have a
great impact on students’ self-concept in general and
self-efficacy in particular (Bandura, 2001). In the context
of formal learning, grades are the most explicit feedback
on the quality of performance; therefore, students’ pre-
vious performance in school is highly associated with
their worries regarding prospective learning activities
(Eccles & Roeser, 2011). When a student experiences
repeated failures over time, an increase in maladap-
tive concerns and anxiety to engage in similar task in
the future is expected. Mathematics-related anxiety
was consistently found associated with mathemat-
ics performance—lower levels of anxiety are related
with better achievements—although not related with
verbal-related competence or performance (see review:
Dowker et al., 2016).
In the current study, we included gender, school tran-
sition and students’ self-reported grade point average
(GPA) to examine whether they would be associated with
MA, as well as predict the trajectory across time.
The current study
In this study, we followed a sample of elementary school
students from the general population over 2 years. The
sample consisted of two cohorts: a cohort of students
who transitioned to middle school between sixth and
428 MADJAR ET AL.
seventh grade (i.e., transition), and another cohort in
which students continued for the seventh grade in the
same school (i.e., no-transition).
The focus of the current study was mathematics, as is
considered a compulsory topic in almost all school sys-
tems, and a source of stress and anxiety for a substantial
proportion of students (Luttrell et al., 2009). Accordingly,
MA among adolescents has been a focus of research,
and several validated measures have been developed. For
example, the Abbreviated Math Anxiety Scale (AMAS;
Hopko, Mahadevan, Bare, & Hunt, 2003), which focuses
on students’ worries about activities related to specific
mathematics-related learning tasks (such as listening to
a mathematical lecture or starting a new chapter in a
mathematics textbook), and concerns regarding exter-
nal evaluation of mathematical abilities (such as think-
ing about or taking a mathematics exam). However, the
Value of Education scale (VOE; Battle & Wigfield, 2003)
was developed based on the expectancy-value theoreti-
cal framework, and therefore was chosen as the primary
assessment tool. We hypothesised that:
H1. Initial levels of MA would be associated with gender
(higher for girls), school transition (higher for transition)
and GPA (higher for low GPA).
H2. MA will generally increase along time.
H3. The increase rate would be higher among girls com-
pared to boys.
H4. The increase rate would be higher for students who
transitioned between schools.
H5. The increase rate would be higher for students with
initial low GPA.
METHODS
Participants
Participants (N = 413; 53.3% female) were sixth grade
students (mean age =11.27, SD = 0.38) sampled from six
different elementary schools located within an urban area
characterised by high-socioeconomic status according
the Israeli National Bureau of Statistics. Three schools
were "transition" (n = 226), and three schools were
"no-transition" (n = 187) institutions. The timing of
transition is predetermined by the Ministry of Education
and does not depend on the students or parental choice,
which reduced likelihood of selection bias or other a
priori differences between the two cohorts. The entire
education system is divided into districts, and all students
in the same district transit at the same stage—either at
the end of sixth grade (K-6) or and the end of eighth
grade (K-8). The transition of most students in Israel
to middle-school occurs after the sixth grade (Resh &
Dar, 2012); therefore, we first sampled three schools that
represent the population of students who do not undergo
a transition, and then matched three schools from a geo-
graphically close area and with similar socioeconomic
characteristics.
Materials and procedures
The students completed self-report surveys during class
hours, with the guidance of a trained research assistant.
The surveys were administered four times over two con-
secutive school years: at the beginning of sixth grade
(October–November 2012), at the end of sixth grade
(May–June 2013), at the beginning of seventh grade
(October–November 2013) and at the end of seventh
grade (May–June 2014).
Each survey included several additional measures that
were not in the scope of the current study, taking approxi-
mately 25 minutes to complete. The surveys were anony-
mous and were matched using a unique code that did not
allow identification of the students to any of the research
or educational personnel. The study was approved by the
Head Scientist in the Ministry of Education, which is the
official body in charge of ethical approval within formal
education system in Israel, in accordance with the Decla-
ration of Helsinki (1964).
Mathematics anxiety
The assessment of MA was based on a 4-item subscale
adapted from the VOE scale (Battle & Wigfield, 2003),
which focuses on student maladaptive worries regarding
learning tasks. In this scale, students are asked to rank
their level of agreement with items measuring their sub-
jective perceptions of negative thoughts and worries asso-
ciated with mathematics in school. Students reported their
level of agreement with each item on a Likert scale rang-
ing from 1 to 5.
The scale was originally developed within undergrad-
uate population and have been utilised in previous stud-
ies (Perez et al., 2014); however, items were adapted to
middle-school students as well (Conley, 2012). Within
the current sample, it was found to have acceptable inter-
nal reliability in the current sample at each time-points
(Cronbach’s α ranged from .64 to .79). Furthermore,
exploratory factor analyses using Varimax rotation con-
ducted at each time-point indicated that single-factor
solutions are best fit to data (a range from 42.7 to 51.5%
of sun squared loadings). The Eigen values of addi-
tional factor were below 1 at each time-point. There-
fore, the measure yielded a consistent and acceptable
construct validity and internal reliability within the spe-
cific sample. To create the final measure, the mean of the
© 2016 International Union of Psychological Science
 DEVELOPMENT OF MATHEMATICS ANXIETY 429

four items was calculated for each student (MA ranged a 1–5 scale) regardless of gender and type of school;
from 1 to 5). see Table 1 for descriptive statistics. The correlation
with GPA was consistently negative and signifi-
cant at all four time-points (Pearson r’s ranged from
Independent variables
−.10 to −.34).
Students’ estimation of their school GPA was assessed The non-linear growth curve indicated that
using a single item (assessed at the first time-point at self-reported GPA negatively predicted initial levels
which a student participated) asking the students to indi- (i.e., intercept) of MA (see Table 2 for all curve analysis
cate the range of the grades they typically received, on a results). Gender and school transition were not signifi-
Likert scale of 1 to 4 (1 = D, 2 = mostly C, 3 = mostly B cantly associated with initial levels of MA. Accordingly,
and 4 = A). This single item was adopted from the Mary- H1 was partially supported. When controlling for gender,
land Adolescent Development in Context (MEDICS; see school transition and self-reported GPA, both linear and
e.g., Wang & Eccles, 2013), and students were also asked quadratic slopes were not significant, meaning that H2
to indicate their gender (male/female). Data were based was not supported (i.e., MA did not significantly increase
on self-report measures as the Ministry of Education did over time).
not allow access to students’ school records. Findings revealed that gender, school transition and
GPA were, independently, significant predictors of the tra-
jectories of MA over time (H3, H4 and H5, respectively).
Statistical analyses The significant coefficient of gender for both linear and
quadratic slopes indicated that male students reported
The primary method of analysis was non-linear growth stable MA, whereas female students started with simi-
curve analysis (Hox, 2010) using hierarchical linear mod- lar level, but increased before moving to seventh grade,
elling (HLM) (Raudenbush & Bryk, 2002). The analysis
models the developmental trajectory of each participant
TABLE 1
and it is less susceptible to missing values at random com- Descriptive statistics of MA levels across all 4 time-points
paring to other longitudinal analyses methods. The results (6-month intervals) and correlation with GPA
enable us to identify the linear and non-linear trajectories
across time, while examining factors that were hypothe- Gender School transition
Correlation
sised to predict the initial levels (i.e., intercepts) and the Male Female Yes No with GPA
trajectories (i.e., slopes).
Baseline 1.92 (.75) 1.83 (.62) 1.85 (.70) 1.90 (.67) −.33***
Equation (1) describes the Level 1 model, in which 6 Months 1.86 (.72) 1.98 (.66) 1.98 (.73) 1.88 (.66) −.34***
linear and quadratic slopes are modelled as predictors of 12 Months 1.94 (.69) 2.03 (.80) 2.04 (.80) 1.93 (.70) −.10*
MA across time (centred on the first time-point). Equation 18 Months 1.85 (.71) 1.89 (.76) 1.85 (.77) 1.89 (.71) −.33***
(2) describes the Level 2 model of the intercept, in which Note: Data are presented as mean (SD).
gender (0 for boys and 1 for girls), school transition (0 *p < .05, ***p < .001; one-tailed.
for no-transition and 1 for transition) and GPA (grand
mean centred) are the independent variables. Equation (3) TABLE 2
describes the Level 2 model for both slopes, in which Growth curve analysis coefficients of the study variables
gender, transition and GPA were modelled as predictors
Coefficients (SE)
of the slopes (Level 2 moderators).
For intercept
[MA] = π0 + π1 (Linear slope) Intercept 1.95 (0.07)***
Gender −0.10 (0.07)
+ π2 (Quadratic slope) + e (1) Transition −0.04 (0.07)
GPA −0.35 (0.06)***
π0 = β00 + β01 (Gender) + β02 (Transition) For linear slope
Intercept −0.13 (0.09)
+ β03 (GPA) + r0 (2) Gender 0.22 (0.10)*
Transition 0.23 (0.10)*
Πx = βx0 + βx1 (Gender) + βx2 (Transition) GPA 0.18 (0.07)**
For quadratic slope
+ βx3 (GPA) + r1 (3) Intercept 0.04 (0.03)
Gender −0.06 (0.03)*
Transition −0.08 (0.03)**
RESULTS GPA −0.06 (0.02)**

Note: Gender coded 0 for males and 1 for females; Transition coded 0
The sampled normative population students (N = 413) for no school transition and 1 for school transition.
reported low levels of MA ranging from 1.85 to 2.04 (in *p < .05, **p < .01, ***p < .001.

© 2016 International Union of Psychological Science

430 MADJAR ET AL.
Figure 1. Growth curve of MA trajectory by gender.
Figure 2. Growth curve of MA trajectory by students who transitioned
school and students who did not.
remained higher at the beginning of the year and then
returned close to their initial levels (Figure 1). These find-
ings reveal less stable patterns of MA among girls com-
paring with boys.
Similarly, school transition also predicted the lin-
ear and quadratic slopes—students from no-transition
schools reported stable MA, whereas students from tran-
sition schools started lower but increased before moving
to middle school, remained higher at the beginning of
the first year at middle school, and then returned close
to their initial levels (Figure 2). Lastly, students with rela-
tively higher GPA started with lower level of MA, which
increased over time and then decreased to the initial levels
(Figure 3).
DISCUSSION
The current study aimed to provide a prospective obser-
vation on the development of MA among middle-school
students. While many teenagers experience intense emo-
tions, such as fear or worries regarding their performance,
most do not meet the clinical psychiatric diagnostic
Figure 3. Growth curve of MA trajectory by GPA levels. Note: low,
1 SD below mean; high, 1 SD above mean).
criteria for an anxiety disorder. Yet, this maladaptive
emotional state may have significant impact and might
evolve into a clinical syndrome in the future.
Our first hypothesis was partially supported, with data
indicating that self-reported GPA is associated with initial
level of MA. This means that students who reported
lower level of scholastic achievements in school also
reported higher levels of MA. The second hypothesis was
not supported, as MA within a normative population of
elementary school students was found to be relatively
low and stable over the 2-year period of the present
study. Mean-level differences at the beginning of sixth
grade were not significant when comparing boys and girls,
or transition and non-transition students. However, the
changes in the average that occurred depended on gender,
school transition and self-reported GPA.
The third hypothesis focused on gender as a moder-
ator of the development of MA among school students.
Findings indicated that while boys reported similar levels
of anxiety over time, girls reported higher level towards
the end of the school year and at the beginning of the
new school year, and then these levels decreased. As
hypothesised, girls were more susceptible to changes
in their perceived worries at this age, a finding that is
aligned with the existing literature on pathological anx-
iety and gender differences in older populations (Leach,
Christensen, Mackinnon, Windsor, & Butterworth, 2008).
Recent studies demonstrated that teachers’ rate male stu-
dents as more skilled in mathematics comparing with
female students (Robinson-Cimpian, Lubienski, Ganley,
& Copur-Gencturk, 2014), and that they may express
their approach and opinion of students in their interac-
tion with them. Therefore, boys and girls can react differ-
ently within the same context. For instance, it has been
found that in classrooms with higher instructional sup-
port, boys reported higher social engagement compared to
girls (Rimm-Kaufman, Baroody, Larsen, Curby, & Abry,
2015).
© 2016 International Union of Psychological Science

School transition also played an important role in
explaining students’ changes of MA across time, as spec-
ulated (H4). Similar to previous research in the field, stu-
dents who experienced school transition were at higher
risk to have higher levels of MA. Moreover, although MA
increased before and right after the transition, it decreased
during the first year in middle school. It is possible that
once students get accustomed to the new setting, their fear
and worries decrease. These findings are consistent with
previous studies that focused on the psychological impact
of school transition, generally reporting negative influ-
ences on students’ well-being and self-perception at this
particular stage (Symonds & Galton, 2014). When indi-
viduals anticipate even an expected and common change
in their life, such as school transition, this may impact
their fears and worries regarding mathematics. Increased
awareness by educational psychologists, counselors and
other practitioners at this time may help in early identi-
fication of personal difficulties and provide timely inter-
vention.
Findings regarding student GPA do not support our
last hypothesis (H5). Although high achievers were
more likely to report increased MA levels, this finding
appears to be ascribed to very low levels of anxiety at
first-time point, which is then expected to increase over
time—known as ’regression to the mean’ (Barnett, van
der Pols, & Dobson, 2005). The high achievers remained
lower on their MA level during the entire study period,
but they had more malleable perceptions of anxiety. In
other words, the GPA may explain the variability of MA
over time in a way that low achievers reported higher
and more stable MA levels over time. It is possible that
even those who did not feel generally anxious increase
their anxiety level towards the end of the school year and
at the beginning of the new school year, and after some
adjustment period it returns to the lower levels. There-
fore, paying attention to students with high achievements
may also be advised as they may be more susceptible to
changes over time, and therefore, should not be ignored
by education personnel and mental health providers.
Adolescent students’ choices regarding many aspects
in life, including future career or personal relationships,
may be determined by specific concerns and worries
(Eccles, 2005). Moreover, school is an important context
that can shape these individual perceptions and aspira-
tions (Eccles & Roeser, 2011). Therefore, this study, con-
ducted in the context of MA during the transition from
elementary to middle school, provides important infor-
mation regarding the developmental trajectory and factors
that can moderate these trajectories across time.
There are several limitations that should be considered
when interpreting the results of the current study. First,
the study is based on a self-report measure that represents
the subjective perception of the participants about their
achievements and levels of anxiety. Future studies should
aim to use more comprehensive and sensitive methods of
© 2016 International Union of Psychological Science
DEVELOPMENT OF MATHEMATICS ANXIETY 431
evaluation, such as formal clinical interviews, in order to
identify and assess maladaptive perception. Other mea-
sures of MA may also be implemented in order to repli-
cate our results (see review: Dowker et al., 2016). Second,
the study is limited to the normative population of ele-
mentary school students within the mathematics domain.
Future research may also extend the scope of the study
to include additional contexts and various populations.
Third, anxiety was relatively stable over time, but the
effect sizes were moderate to low. However, it should be
noted that this study is based on naturalistic assessment of
the outcome variable, which is expected to reveal smaller
effect sizes comparing to an experimental interventional
design or case–control studies of clinical populations.
Our study had several strengths. The study is a longi-
tudinal investigation of an important aspect of adolescent
functioning with a relatively large sample size, and based
on a solid theoretical framework. We followed a sample
of middle-school students over two consecutive school
years, and implemented advanced analyses to examine
our research questions.
In conclusion, the longitudinal study provides prospec-
tive evidence of the development of anxiety, at least in
the context of mathematics, among normative adolescent
students population. The findings shed light on maladap-
tive worries that may be precursors of clinical anxiety and
may have developmental implications on the function-
ing of normative students. Primary school-based preven-
tive strategies can be constructed to cope with evolution
of MA.
Manuscript received February 2016
Revised manuscript accepted November 2016
First published online December 2016
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