Chapter Z Probability

Random experiment experiment thatcanhave different outcomes while

using the same procedures
Sample space set of all possible outcomes of a random experiment s

continuous contains an interval ofreals finite or infinite

discrete finite or
countablecffiteft set of
outcomes
of allreals

Ex Recycle time of a camera flash

s rt x1 x 03 5 to 5sec
positive realtime s x 1 saxes
continuous sample continuous
space samplespace

slow
discrete sample space 3 options
Igyal
objective determine if camera flashconforms to manufacturing specs for recycle time
b
noCn
yes
testing the recycle time of 2 flashes
S yy yn ny nor

the of conforming flashes

S o 1,23
the flashes are tested until theregale time fails to meet the spec
S n yn yyn yyyn 3 D discrete countable infinite

Tree Diagrams Graphical representation of sample space

Ex messages on time 10 Message I
late lil
message 2

message 3

s
Fff
000oohoho oh coo ios no in adiscrete
Events an event E is a subset of a samplespace

Union of two events consists of all outcomes contained in one event er theother E U Ez
Intersection of two events consists of all outcomes contained in one event theother E AEz
Complement of an event is set ofoutcomes in sample space thatare not in theevent E

2 flashes I S yy yn nynn
E yes yn my a flesh conforms El Vez s yy yn ny.mn

Ez nn no flesh conforms ME Tn ny

3 shinyinn a flashdoesnotinform E nn Ez

E 2 1101 2123 E VE Et lost cis

Ez x lie cis E nez x it exc 12

E x x 40 or x 12

E n En XI Rex 15

an
A
A B
B

Alllll I
Iffy
Probability Laws
DeMorgan's law D IA UB A NB Distributive law Au B ne cane uan
ARB A VB CANB UC AUC A BUC

y a A AB BAA
AUB B U A
Counting Techniques
1 Multiplitation rule
2 Permutation rule

3 Combination rule

k steps

number of ways to completestep2

numbed ways completestep
1
of to ke ne

ex website design Y colours

3 fonts

2 Permutation finds number of ordered sequentes of elements in a set

s a b c abc bae cab n 3 3 3 2.1 6
acb be a Cba

of sequences n n Cn 1 n 2 2 I

n number of different elements

Tuesday June 28th

Prn of permutations of subsets of r elements selected from set of n
Pri n n n 1 in z in ra
n r

Ex printed circuit board 8 locations of possible designs

components
P 87 8.7.6 5 1680
I q 4,5
 permutations of similar objects same items are identical

of permutations n n the that Mr

II signage In
type
n
n na nu
Ex hospital or 3 knee surgeries K Possible surgery orders
2
hip surgeries h
Kkk hh h Kkkn 5 D
It
n
Kkhkh hkkh k r 3 2
Kk ane h Knick
Kh Kk h h h Kkk P 5.4 31
Kh Khk 31.2
K hh Kk
P
221 I
3 Combination selectionof r elements from n elements where
order does not matter

Ci n Pr Can
a r In r
of permutations of combinations

Ex lircuit board 8 locations

5 identical components of diff designs

C 8 7 6.51 8 56
5,83 5113 3

Sampling with or without replacement

Ex sampling without replacement bin of 50 parts 3 defective

47 nondefective

a sample of 6 parts without replacement

each part can only be selected once

of diff samples of size 6 that contain exactly 2 defective parts

 C 3
2 3.2 31 Ci y
4 y y
72365
non defective

Ci Ci 3 178365 535095

CE 50 15890700
6 14

Axions of Probability

Probability hood that a particular outcome or event from random experiment

likely
will occur
o I
Ignetyanossible
o s 100

Equally likely outcomes whenever a sample spare consists of N possible

outcomes that are equally likely probability of each
outcomes in Yn

Ix 100diodes randomly select t from a bag what isprobability of choosing laserdiode

laserdiode
each outcome is equally
of o 01 likely

Ex rolling two dice what is probability that sum of 2 numbers is 9

In total 6 6 36 possibilities how to get 9 s o ta x

I too x
2 7 x
p at 3 6
4 5 4
possibiliti
y u s
6 3 U
7 2
8 1 x
9 to x
 Probability of an event
PCE a sum of probabilities of the outcomes of E
Discrete sample space

Ex outcomes a b c d A a b P o to o
b so
of B b cd op o3 0.5 0.1 0.9
c d op o l

1 I s is the sample space

pls
of PCE Il

13 E and Ez with Einez 4 numbers

gno
PCE U Ez p Ei p Ez

p 01 0

PIE 1 PCE if E is contained in Ez D

p Ei E p Ea

Probability of a Union Addition rule

PCA U B plait PCB plan B

if A and B are mutually exclusive A AB 0

pla U B plat t p 1B
Ex Contamination Location
Center Edge Total
Low 5 68 582
High 112 296 358
Total 626 314 940

H high level of contamination p it put1 358

940
C center of the tool pc plc Gq
plane high level at renter plane
gig
p Huc peal pls p Hnc 3958 648 130 8970

PCAU B U C p AUB UC p AUB PK p AUB NC

p la plBl plan B p ICI p IAMB U BAC

p Al PIB PCC plan B plan C PCB ne plan B NC
plat tpl B pcc plan B plane pls n c plan Bnc

MutuallyExclusive Events
A collection of

Conditional Probability

PCB A conditional probability of B given A

PCB A plan B
IA p la o n total outcomes equally
p likely
play of outcomes in A
N

plan B of outages in and

no
Plan B Iatifies in
Pla

Ex throwing a die ont

s 1,2 3,4 5,63 plat t
A I
p1B 3 I
B 2,4 6 p C I
C 2 pla B o A and B are mentally exelusive

PCC B I
 surface plan
YesIF No Total
Defective Yes levent D 10 18 28
No 30 342 372
Tota 70 360 400

pF Yoo p D 48 p IDIF plant Yo

PCF

plan F
É
p D F 30
700 surface Flaw
p F

P'D F plane's Iggy ggg

F Defective
p
333 No
Ys sx higher
platt
ppgpe
3 0 342 gq defective
surface
if
flaw
3g z

Random Samples

a b I
2 items randomly without replacement

ordered sample space

g IE g p YG

unordered sample space be

ad p 43

Ex 50 parts
select 2 parts randomly
10parts
made bytool
Yo pants
made too z
what is probability that
from tool 2
part 2
given part i came from
came
by

El partl from tool I PCE I

Ez
p
 what is the probability that tool I came from
part 1 AID part 2 came from
part 2

PCE n Ea Ya E
PCA A B p BIA p la p AIB pB

Ex Machine operates at high rpm p that first stage meets specification is of

Given that first stage meets specs p that second stage also meets spec is 0.91
what is probability that both stages meetspec planB

B second stage meets spec PCBIA 0.95 plan B p BIA p IA

0.95 0.9
gg

Thursday June 30th

Two mutually exclusive subsets
d
B IAMB and A UB are also mutually exclusive

Total Probability Rule Two Events

Any events A and B RBI PAANB PCA UB
PCB PCBA Plait PIBIA PIA
Ex Probability of failure Level of contamination Probability of level
GI High g z
0.005 Low 0.8
F event that product fails
It semitondostor is exposed to high contamination
 PIF HI o I P H 0.2 P F P Mt RAI t Plat pray
PCF H o oos pay o g PCF on 0.2 t o 005 0.8

PCF O 024

Total Probability Rule Multiple Events

Er Ez Ek mutually exclusive exhausted
PCB PCBAE PIBAEc t PCBAER

PI BIE PCE I PCB Ez PCEa t P BIER PEEK

Independence
PCB A PCB if the two events are independent one event has no impact on other

PCB A PCB
if any of these are true events are independent
PCA B PCA
PCA n B PCA PCB

Ex Sampling with replacement

ts in bin D 6 parts chosen randomly

selected
part is replaced before the next one is selected
3 defective
parts what is probability that the second part is
47 non defective parts defective given the first one is defective

still 3150
A first part is detective
B second part is defective

PCBA
PCA
Zo
PCBI
30 PCBA Probability that both parts are defective

PCAA B PCBIA Plan PIBI PCA 305

Zo go
 Ex Independence multiple events

Probability of wafer containing a large particle contamination is 0.01

Wafers are independent

15 wafers are analyzed what is the probability that no contamination is found

i 1 2.3 15

PIE 1 0.01 0.99

PIE NEZ ME n AE's 0.99 0.99 0.99 10.99115 0 86

PCABK PCBIAS DIA

PCB

Ex Probability of failure Level of contamination Probability of level

GI High g z
0.005 Low 0.8
F event that product fails
It semitondostor is exposed to high contamination

PIF HI o I P H 0.2 PIF PIF H PCH t PCHA PCH

PCF H 0.005 PCH o 8 PCF o l 0.2 t o 005 0.8

PCF O 024
PCH F
Ppl F PIF H Plitt
PIFI

0.1 0.2 0.83

0.024

Bayes Thm
Ei Ez Ez Ek mutually exelusive t exhaustive

B
any event
PCE I B PCB E PIE
PIB E PCE PIB Ez PCEz t PCB Er PCEK
Random variable function that applies real number to each outcome in sample
spare of random experiment
X D random variable

x 70mA

Discrete random variable random variable with a finite countable infinite range
Continuous random variable interval

finite infinite
of realnumbers