Silk Road traffic grew in 2022: here’s how the figures

developed
railfreight.com/beltandroad/2023/01/10/silk-road-traffic-grew-in-2022-heres-how-the-figures-developed

Published on 10-01-2023 at 15:03

Image: China Railway Group

In 2022, traffic volumes between China and Europe reached a new milestone
despite what has probably been one of the most volatile years in Eurasian
transport. According to figures released by the China National Railway
Group Co., Ltd. Work Conference in early January, China-Europe trains
reached 16,000 trips and delivered 1,6 million TEUs.

According to China National Railway, those figures indicate a year-on-year increase of 9

per cent compared to 2021 and 10 per cent compared to 2020. After a surge three years
ago, the growth trend of Silk Road traffic has entered a stable period, with volumes
increasing steadily despite challenges.

Breaking down the numbers

2022 highlighted the discourse around Silk Road traffic growth. That is because 2022 was
an exceptional year, very challenging, adding more obstacles to the already fragile
Eurasian supply chain. The state of war in Ukraine after Russia’s invasion in late February
resulted in pessimism with rail companies, freight forwarders and shippers looking for
alternatives since western sanctions complicated business with Russia and rail transit via
the country.

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Despite forecasts that Eurasian volumes would experience a substantial blow leading to
their significant drop, those fears were not confirmed in the end. In contrast, transported
volumes between China-Europe kept growing. However, when examining those figures,
one should pay attention to detail.

Specifically, the overall China-Europe volume throughput has grown during 2022, yet, it
is not indicative of the actual traffic between European countries and China since the
China National Railway considers Russia as a European destination along the New Silk
Road.

That being said, those 1,6 million TEUs transported in the past year do not describe the
actual Europe-China traffic. When looking at the Eurasian Rail Alliance Index, it is
apparent that transported volumes between European hubs and China decreased by 31,94
per cent compared to 2021. Specifically, in 2022 Europe-China volumes in both east and
west directions amounted to 386,374 TEUs. In 2021, this number was around 618,180
TEUs.

Westbound traffic in 2022 reached 262,194 TEUs dropping by 30,33 per cent compared
to 2021 (409,458 TEUs). On the other hand, eastbound traffic also dropped by 35,14 per
cent, with 124,098 TEUs transported instead of 208,722 TEUs the year before.

A reason to worry?
As mentioned, the industry has been discussing the decreased China-Europe volumes for
months. Indeed, the decrease is not negligible, and European companies active on the Silk
Road have been dealing with the challenges it brought.

Geopolitical instability always impacts business. Especially in the context of sanctions,

restrictions, market volatility and customer insecurity, which characterised 2022 as a
whole, the lowered volumes did not come as a surprise. Nevertheless, the drop is not
indicative of the future. Despite the war, the overall Silk Road traffic reached a new high
instead of collapsing, as many experts feared. On top of that, bilateral relations between
Europe and China keep improving, with both sides expressing their will for closer
cooperation and leaving room for more Silk Road growth.

Additionally, the relaxation of China’s Covid-19-related policies could boost Silk Road
traffic even more, starting in 2023. Hopefully, a permanent ceasefire in Ukraine could
also result in a more stable and peaceful period, followed by a reapproach of Silk Road
routes and traffic possibilities.

After all, as Jakub Walczak from CH Robinson highlighted during the European Silk Road
Summit 2022, instead of looking at the relatively negative figures currently, the Eurasian
rail freight industry should instead start preparing for the next peak season, which is not
far away.

Tags: China Railways, China-Europe Express, New Silk Road, Ukraine

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Author: Nikos Papatolios

Nikos Papatolios is editor of RailFreight.com, the online magazine for rail freight
professionals.

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