Proyección de Ventas - Método Promedio

AÑO VENTAS VARIAC AÑO VENTAS

2009 S/ 19,005.00 2012 S/ 1,672.00
2010 S/ 18,451.00 S/ -554.00 2013 S/ 1,765.00
2011 S/ 18,752.00 S/ 301.00 2014 S/ 1,685.00
2012 S/ 19,345.00 S/ 593.00 2015 S/ 1,567.00
2013 S/ 19,017.00 S/ -328.00 2016 S/ 2,005.00
2014 S/ 19,557.00 S/ 540.00 2017 S/ 2,007.00
2015 S/ 19,754.00 S/ 197.00 2018 S/ 1,789.00
2016 S/ 19,997.00 S/ 243.00 2019 S/ 1,910.00
2017 S/ 20,901.00 S/ 904.00 2020 S/ 1,898.00
2018 S/ 21,138.00 2021 S/ 1,926.25
2019 S/ 21,375.00 2022 S/ 1,954.50
2020 S/ 21,612.00 2023 S/ 1,982.75
2021 S/ 21,849.00 2024 S/ 2,011.00
2022 S/ 22,086.00 2025 S/ 2,039.25

AÑO VENTAS VARIAC AÑO VENTAS

2008 S/ 500.00 2009 S/ 35,000.00
2009 S/ 485.00 S/ -15.00 2010 S/ 27,000.00
2009 S/ 556.00 S/ 71.00 2011 S/ 36,000.00
2010 S/ 524.00 S/ -32.00 2012 S/ 34,500.00
2011 S/ 584.00 S/ 60.00 2013 S/ 38,600.00
2012 S/ 556.00 S/ -28.00 2014 S/ 39,700.00
2013 S/ 570.00 S/ 14.00 2015 S/ 31,000.00
2014 S/ 589.00 S/ 19.00 2016 S/ 33,000.00
2015 S/ 500.00 S/ -89.00 2017 S/ 36,465.00
2016 S/ 552.00 S/ 52.00 2018 S/ 38,900.00
2017 S/ 553.00 S/ 1.00 2019 S/ 39,000.00
2018 S/ 558.30 2020 S/ 36,754.00
2019 S/ 563.60 2021 S/ 36,913.45
2020 S/ 568.90 2022 S/ 37,072.91
2021 S/ 574.20 2023 S/ 37,232.36
2022 S/ 579.50 2024 S/ 37,391.82
2023 S/ 584.80 2025 S/ 37,551.27
2024 S/ 590.10
2025 S/ 595.40
 VARIAC

S/ 93.00
S/ -80.00
S/ -118.00
S/ 438.00
S/ 2.00
S/ -218.00
S/ 121.00
S/ -12.00

VARIAC

S/ -8,000.00
S/ 9,000.00
S/ -1,500.00
S/ 4,100.00
S/ 1,100.00
S/ -8,700.00
S/ 2,000.00
S/ 3,465.00
S/ 2,435.00
S/ 100.00
S/ -2,246.00
Proyección de Ventas - Método Incremento
AÑO VENTAS INCREMENTO % AÑO VENTAS VARIAC
2009 S/ 19,005.00 2012 S/ 1,672.00
2010 S/ 18,451.00 0.97 2013 S/ 1,765.00 1.06
2011 S/ 18,752.00 1.02 2014 S/ 1,685.00 0.95
2012 S/ 19,345.00 1.03 2015 S/ 1,567.00 0.93
2013 S/ 19,017.00 0.98 2016 S/ 2,005.00 1.28
2014 S/ 19,557.00 1.03 2017 S/ 2,007.00 1.00
2015 S/ 19,754.00 1.01 2018 S/ 1,789.00 0.89
2016 S/ 19,997.00 1.01 2019 S/ 1,910.00 1.07
2017 S/ 20,901.00 1.05 2020 S/ 1,898.00 0.99
2018 S/ 21,156.54 2021 S/ 1,939.17
2019 S/ 21,415.20 2022 S/ 1,981.22
2020 S/ 21,677.02 2023 S/ 2,024.20
2021 S/ 21,942.04 2024 S/ 2,068.10
2022 S/ 22,210.31 2025 S/ 2,112.95

AÑO VENTAS VARIAC AÑO VENTAS VARIAC

2008 S/ 500.00 2009 S/ 35,000.00
2009 S/ 485.00 0.97 2010 S/ 27,000.00 0.77
2009 S/ 556.00 1.15 2011 S/ 36,000.00 1.33
2010 S/ 524.00 0.94 2012 S/ 34,500.00 0.96
2011 S/ 584.00 1.11 2013 S/ 38,600.00 1.12
2012 S/ 556.00 0.95 2014 S/ 39,700.00 1.03
2013 S/ 570.00 1.03 2015 S/ 31,000.00 0.78
2014 S/ 589.00 1.03 2016 S/ 33,000.00 1.06
2015 S/ 500.00 0.85 2017 S/ 36,465.00 1.11
2016 S/ 552.00 1.10 2018 S/ 38,900.00 1.07
2017 S/ 553.00 1.00 2019 S/ 39,000.00 1.00
2018 S/ 560.67 2020 S/ 36,754.00 0.94
2019 S/ 568.44 2021 S/ 37,330.58
2020 S/ 576.32 2022 S/ 37,916.21
2021 S/ 584.31 2023 S/ 38,511.02
2022 S/ 592.41 2024 S/ 39,115.16
2023 S/ 600.62 2025 S/ 39,728.78
2024 S/ 608.94
2025 S/ 617.38
Proyección de Ventas - Método Tendencia Lineal
AÑO VENTAS AÑO VENTAS
2009 S/ 19,005.00 2012 S/ 1,672.00
2010 S/ 18,451.00 2013 S/ 1,765.00
2011 S/ 18,752.00 2014 S/ 1,685.00
2012 S/ 19,345.00 2015 S/ 1,567.00
2013 S/ 19,017.00 2016 S/ 2,005.00
2014 S/ 19,557.00 2017 S/ 2,007.00
2015 S/ 19,754.00 2018 S/ 1,789.00
2016 S/ 19,997.00 2019 S/ 1,910.00
2017 S/ 20,901.00 2020 S/ 1,898.00
2018 S/ 20,623.06 2021 S/ 1,976.47
2019 S/ 20,863.69 2022 S/ 2,009.59
2020 S/ 21,104.32 2023 S/ 2,042.71
2021 S/ 21,344.96 2024 S/ 2,075.82
2022 S/ 21,585.59 2025 S/ 2,108.94

AÑO VENTAS AÑO VENTAS

2008 S/ 500.00 2009 S/ 35,000.00
2009 S/ 485.00 2010 S/ 27,000.00
2009 S/ 556.00 2011 S/ 36,000.00
2010 S/ 524.00 2012 S/ 34,500.00
2011 S/ 584.00 2013 S/ 38,600.00
2012 S/ 556.00 2014 S/ 39,700.00
2013 S/ 570.00 2015 S/ 31,000.00
2014 S/ 589.00 2016 S/ 33,000.00
2015 S/ 500.00 2017 S/ 36,465.00
2016 S/ 552.00 2018 S/ 38,900.00
2017 S/ 553.00 2019 S/ 39,000.00
2018 S/ 566.29 2020 S/ 36,754.00
2019 S/ 570.36 2021 S/ 38,491.41
2020 S/ 574.43 2022 S/ 38,952.66
2021 S/ 578.49 2023 S/ 39,413.92
2022 S/ 582.56 2024 S/ 39,875.17
2023 S/ 586.62 2025 S/ 40,336.43
2024 S/ 590.69
2025 S/ 594.76
 Proyección de Ventas - Método Promedio TODO SE HACE CON GRAFICO DE DISPERC

1
AÑO VENTAS PRONOSTICO AÑO
2009 S/ 19,005.00 S/ 18,450.67 1 2012
2010 S/ 18,451.00 S/ 18,691.30 2 2013
2011 S/ 18,752.00 S/ 18,931.93 3 2014
2012 S/ 19,345.00 S/ 19,172.56 4 2015
2013 S/ 19,017.00 S/ 19,413.19 5 2016
2014 S/ 19,557.00 S/ 19,653.82 6 2017
2015 S/ 19,754.00 S/ 19,894.45 7 2018
2016 S/ 19,997.00 S/ 20,135.08 8 2019
2017 S/ 20,901.00 S/ 20,375.71 9 2020
2018 S/ 20,616.34 10 2021
2019 S/ 20,856.97 11 2022
2020 S/ 21,097.60 12 2023
2021 S/ 21,338.23 13 2024
2022 S/ 21,578.86 14 2025

3
AÑO VENTAS PRONOSTICO AÑO
2008 S/ 500.00 525.628 2009
2009 S/ 485.00 529.694 2010
2009 S/ 556.00 529.694 2011
2010 S/ 524.00 533.76 2012
2011 S/ 584.00 537.826 2013
2012 S/ 556.00 541.892 2014
2013 S/ 570.00 545.958 2015
2014 S/ 589.00 550.024 2016
2015 S/ 500.00 554.09 2017
2016 S/ 552.00 558.156 2018
2017 S/ 553.00 562.222 2019
2018 566.29 2020
2019 570.35 2021
2020 574.42 2022
2021 578.49 2023
2022 582.55 2024
2023 586.62 2025
2024 590.68
2025 594.75

VENTAS 4
S/ 45,000.00
S/ 40,000.00
S/ 35,000.00 f(x) = 461.255244755245 x − 893705.440559441
R² = 0.197799450591886
S/ 30,000.00
S/ 25,000.00
S/ 20,000.00
S/ 45,000.00
S/ 40,000.00
S/ 35,000.00 f(x) = 461.255244755245 x − 893705.440559441
R² = 0.197799450591886
S/ 30,000.00
S/ 25,000.00
S/ 20,000.00
S/ 15,000.00
S/ 10,000.00
S/ 5,000.00
S/ -
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 20
SE HACE CON GRAFICO DE DISPERCION, SE SELECCIONA CON TITULO MAS AÑO Y VENTAS QUE TENEMOS

2
VENTAS PRONOSTICO VENTAS 2
S/ 1,672.00 1679.404
S/ 1,765.00 1712.521
S/ 2,500.00
S/ 1,685.00 1745.638
S/ 1,567.00 1778.755
S/ 2,000.00
S/ 2,005.00 1811.872 f(x) = 33.1166666666667 x − 64952.3111111111
S/ 2,007.00 1844.989 R² = 0.344960053448461
S/ 1,500.00
S/ 1,789.00 1878.106
S/ 1,910.00 1911.223 S/ 1,000.00
S/ 1,898.00 1944.34
1977.46 S/ 500.00
2010.57
2043.69 S/ -
2076.81 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20

2109.92

VENTAS 1
4 S/ 21,500.00
VENTAS PRONOSTICO
S/ 21,000.00
S/ 35,000.00 32966.34
S/ 20,500.00
S/ 27,000.00 33427.6
f(x) = 240.633333333333 x − 464975.011111111
S/ 36,000.00 33888.86 S/ 20,000.00 R² = 0.792838287836789
S/ 34,500.00 34350.12 S/ 19,500.00
S/ 38,600.00 34811.38 S/ 19,000.00
S/ 39,700.00 35272.64 S/ 18,500.00
S/ 31,000.00 35733.9
S/ 18,000.00
S/ 33,000.00 36195.16
S/ 17,500.00
S/ 36,465.00 36656.42
S/ 38,900.00 37117.68 S/ 17,000.00
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
S/ 39,000.00 37578.94
S/ 36,754.00 38040.2
38501.46
VENTAS 3
38962.72
39423.98 S/ 700.00
39885.24 S/ 600.00
40346.50
f(x) = 4.06601941747573 x − 7638.93398058253
S/ 500.00 R² = 0.124175898553137
S/ 400.00

S/ 300.00
VENTAS 4
S/ 200.00

S/ 100.00
461.255244755245 x − 893705.440559441
.197799450591886 S/ -
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
 S/ 200.00

S/ 100.00
461.255244755245 x − 893705.440559441
.197799450591886 S/ -
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

2

952.3111111111

6 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

975.011111111

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

638.93398058253

2014 2016 2018

2014 2016 2018
 1ER CUADRO DE CADA MÉTODO
AÑO PROMEDIO INCREMENTO TENDENCIA REG. LINEAL
2018 S/ 21,138.00 S/ 21,156.54 S/ 20,623.06 S/ 20,616.34
2019 S/ 21,375.00 S/ 21,415.20 S/ 20,863.69 S/ 20,856.97
2020 S/ 21,612.00 S/ 21,677.02 S/ 21,104.32 S/ 21,097.60
2021 S/ 21,849.00 S/ 21,942.04 S/ 21,344.96 S/ 21,338.23
2022 S/ 22,086.00 S/ 22,210.31 S/ 21,585.59 S/ 21,578.86

Como podemos apreciar, los resultados del método Promedio e

Incremento son muy similares, por ende sus rectas siguen casi la misma
proyección, en una circunstancia parecida tenemos los resultados de los
métodos de Tendencia y Reg, Lineal donde sus datos son aún más
parecidos, tanto así que el de Reg. Lineal cubre al de Tendencia.
 PROYECCIONES 4 Métodos
S/ 22,500.00

S/ 22,000.00

S/ 21,500.00

S/ 21,000.00

S/ 20,500.00

S/ 20,000.00

S/ 19,500.00
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

PROMEDIO INCREMENTO TENDENCIA REG. LINEAL