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Min-Ren Yan
To cite this article: Min-Ren Yan (2018): Improving entrepreneurial knowledge and business
innovations by simulation-based strategic decision support system, Knowledge Management
Research & Practice, DOI: 10.1080/14778238.2018.1442994
Article views: 3
ORIGINAL ARTICLE
for building sustainable advantage in a marketplace for supporting the simulations of complex operational
(Chesbrough & Schwartz, 2007; Sorescu, Frambach, and strategic issues in businesses and other organisa-
Singh, Rangaswamy, & Bridges, 2011). As an accelera- tions. The model could be a learning tool that allows
tor of ideas generation, design thinking could be recog- managers to conduct experiment with various strate-
nised as a method for developing innovative solutions gies, and learn from simulated decisions in a designed
for complex problems, by deliberately incorporating the learning environment that allow failure and reflection.
concerns, interests, and values of humans into the design Simulation-based strategic scenario analysis thus can
process (Brown, 2009; Meinel & Leifer, 2011). Design improve stakeholder’s mental models and entrepreneur-
thinking aims to rapidly develop and test multiple pos- ial knowledge for innovative business development.
sible solutions to the needs, including economic and
social values (Brown, 2008; Denning, 2013; Geissdoerfer, 2. The strategic architecture
Bocken, & Hultink, 2016). In addition to ideas genera-
tion, a business model can be defined as “the rationale To improve entrepreneurial knowledge and business
of how an organisation creates, delivers and captures innovations, a systematic understanding of strategic
value” (Joyce & Paquin, 2016; Osterwalder & Pigneur, planning and dynamic capability is important. Previous
2010). Teece (2010) proposed that “A good business studies have proposed the importance of dynamic capa-
model yields value propositions that are compelling to bility to firm performance in the changing business envi-
customers, achieves advantageous cost and risk struc- ronment (Mu, 2017; Pisano, 2017; Ringov, 2017). It is
tures, and enables significant value capture by the busi- especially true in an innovative business model and early
ness that generates and delivers products and services”. stage entrepreneurial business developments.
For both economic and social value, a wide range of In this paper, System Dynamics (SD) methodol-
business model innovation or frameworks have been ogy is adopted to utilise the functions in simulations
proposed (Chesbrough & Rosenbloom, 2002; Joyce & and dynamic scenario analysis. Previous studies have
Paquin, 2016; Osterwalder & Pigneur, 2010; Richardson, acknowledged that SD is a simulation enabled meth-
2008; Teece, 2010; Tukker & Tischner, 2006; Upward odology to modelling complex systems with consid-
& Jones, 2015; Zott & Amit, 2010). Previous studies erations of interactive influencing factors (Yan, 2015;
have proposed that business model innovation links Yun, Won, Park, Yang, & Zhao, 2017). By focusing on
business aspirations and the platforms for reality and strategic management with the principles of SD meth-
success (França, Broman, Robèrt, Basile, & Trygg, 2017). odology, Warren (2005) proposed Strategy Dynamics
A product-service systems (PSS) approach has been pro- approach that integrates simulation model-based man-
posed as an opportunity for promoting sustainability agement and resource-based view for analysing a firm’s
and strategic business model development (Manzini strategy and resource utilisation that drive business
& Vezzoli, 2003; Tukker, 2004, 2015). PSS reconsiders performance over time. As an integration of the meth-
the delivery of functional value to end-users through odological framework to enhance the analytic capability
an integrated mix of product and service (Mont, 2002; for strategic innovations and business developments, the
Tukker, 2004). proposed SSDSS is shown in Figure 1. The proposed
Regarding the aforementioned framework of business model indicates that a firm’s strategic outcome as well
model development, five core components of a business as business performance could be the results of inno-
model have been identified, including value proposition, vations, business development, and resource-based
technology system, customer segmentation, costs and management decisions over time. Since performance
revenues, and connection with customers (Yun, Yang, reflects the state of business resources utilised, this
& Park, 2016). However, even though the entrepreneur- study supports a systematic evaluation for time-phase
ial thinking and business model development could be performance with anticipated resources. In addition,
facilitated by existing methodologies, framework of stra- the strategic architecture of SSDSS is enabled to cover
tegic planning for the execution of innovative business the feedback structure of interrelated critical variables
model and dynamic management decision support was among innovations, business model development, tech-
limited. The strategic management of entrepreneurial nology adoption, consumer awareness, and business
knowledge and business innovations would be critical economics. The field of strategic management and inno-
for the success of business practices. vation are eager for dynamic theories that explain the
To enhance company’s strategic planning capability evolution of performance differences among different
and business performance with entrepreneurial knowl- business models and are increasingly looking to mana-
edge and innovations, this study combines the principles gerial decision-making as the source of dynamics (Yan,
of innovations and System Dynamics methodology to 2017). Therefore, the strategic architecture contributes to
develop a Simulation-based Strategic Decision Support address dynamics and systematic decision-making with
System (SSDSS) for innovative business development. business model innovations. As shown in Figure 1, the
SSDSS could be a management flight simulators (MFS) proposed SSDSS functions for strategic planning with
simulations. The relationships between variables and a
KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT RESEARCH & PRACTICE 3
firm’s strategic outcomes are modelled based on three states (different level of customer awareness). As shown
fundamental principles: (1) business performance at in Figure 2, even though that active customers and loyal
any time depends on resources, management decisions, customers were developed from potential customers,
and external factors, (2) customers in different level of they are moved through a number of stages at different
awareness could be accumulated and depleted over time, level of awareness. Therefore, a strategic architecture is
(3) the increase and decrease of customers are modelled integrated to explain the relationships between market
as inflows and outflows depending on existing resource environment, business innovations, and customer devel-
levels, management decisions, and external factors. The opment. Most importantly, enablers from product and
aforementioned three elements constitute the strategic service innovations, marketing & promotions, and busi-
architecture that explains how any innovation functions ness development strategies could be systematically eval-
and performs over time. uated and their impacts to different stages of customer
The frameworks can be used to improve business per- could be specifically analysed with the proposed SSDSS.
formance, as part of a complete strategy for innovations. To promote any business innovations on new prod-
To evaluate the impacts of various innovations on busi- ucts or services, the marketing challenge is to move
ness developments, the market response and the cus- consumers through a series of stages until they become
tomer awareness can be recognised through a series of buyers of the product/service. Management may have
Disregarded Loyal
Note: The strategic factors Customers
architecture is a generic
structure. Possible Disloyal
feedback structure Customers Become loyal per
could be customized by time unit
specific cases Informed
Customers First time buyers
per time unit
Aware
Customers Become informed
per time unit
Unaware
Customers Become aware per
Change of Market
Demand time unit
Enablers from Product and Service
Innovations, Marketing & Promotions,
External Factors from Economic Condition, and Business Development Strategies
Market Structure, Competition,
Technological Change, and Others
Figure 2. The conceptual strategic architecture of business innovations and market development.
4 M.-R. YAN
a budget to split across four categories of spending: benchmarked Ten Ren Tea Group is the only one tea
(1) innovations and marketing on building customer company whose IPO’s officially began trading and
awareness; (2) communicating the brand’s values to passed FSSC22000, HACCP, ISO9001 in Taiwan. With
catch consumers’ interest; (3) promotions to persuade the philosophy of “Old Business, New Management”, the
interested consumers to purchase; and (4) loyalty pro- company concentrates on the product, store and organi-
motions to persuade consumers to purchase only this sation innovations. Ten Ren Tea Group operates for more
brand. Therefore, the proposed SSDSS is important than 10 billion NTD revenue annually from hundreds of
because it helps to effectively utilise the investment of retail stores worldwide, comprising four business units
innovation and marketing on the most critical parts of including Ten Ren’s tea retailing store, cha FOR TEA
customer developments. To identify the total revenue chain-store restaurant, cha FOR TEA ToGo tea shop,
streams, active customers could be divided into two and CHAFFEE store. The company continues to build
groups: “loyal” consumers, who always purchase the on its sustainable competitive edge, excellent customer
brand when they need the product or service, and “dis- service and a breakthrough culture, which aims to leave
loyal” consumers, who purchase between this brand and a lasting legacy of innovation in the tea industry.
its competitors.
This framework covers business customers and is not 4.1. The challenges of product and service
limited to consumer markets or commercial cases. The innovations for chain-store restaurants
framework is useful in a wide variety of cases because
it captures how people move between states of mind, a Based on the strategic architecture of market develop-
phenomenon that arises in numerous situations. Based ment, the characteristics and number of customers in
on the proposed model and simulation technique, the different stages have been identified. It was founded
longitudinal patterns of firm growth with various inno- that, even though the chain-store restaurants have estab-
vations and business models could be illustrated and lished steady level of customers and satisfaction, reve-
analysed. nue growth was stocked in the recent two years due to
fast-moving products and fiercely competitive environ-
ments. Business development and promotion strategies
3. Model-based case study with improved
in different stages are thus reviewed as the guidance for
entrepreneurial knowledge
actions, such as public advertising, B2B credit card, app
In this section, two real world case studies are bench- coupon, VIP services and etc. The company has iden-
marked to examine the effectiveness of SSDSS tified opportunities and the challenges that the large
applications in supporting strategic planning and inno- amount of potential customers were promoted to aware-
vation-driven business development. In depth interviews ness stage without further consumption. In the case
with the executive managers were conducted to clarify study, the estimated number of customers (including
the business model innovations in practices. Empirical loyal and disloyal customers) is approaching to 0.2 mil-
data, iterative computer simulations, and scenario anal- lion, while the estimated number of potential customers
ysis were adopted to demonstrate the applications of the is more than 1.8 million. The market potential could be
proposed SSDSS that utilises market-oriented and sus- a dramatic growth if all the estimated future customers
tainability-oriented innovations to improve operating are effectively accessed. Therefore, the stock of aware
performance by creating market value and shared value customers without purchasing was identified as one of
to the customer and the society. the bottleneck for revenue growth. Strategies to enhance
Various scenario analyses were conducted in the case the inflows from potential customers to loyal customers
studies, while scenarios represent integration of possible have to be developed and tested by simulations.
future development and chosen type of reaction (strat-
egy) to the development. In this way, scenarios become 4.2. Evaluating the impacts of service and
the part of strategic planning increasing flexibility and marketing innovations with different strategies
exploitability. Involvement work with scenarios into reg-
ular strategic planning and decision-making process is To the target market, the company initiated some busi-
the way to preserve performance and competitiveness ness strategies through service and marketing innova-
of organisations even if the environment shows unpre- tions. The rationale of innovations and strategic planning
dictable turbulences. as well as entrepreneurial knowledge is improved with
the simulation-based scenario analysis supported by
SSDSS.
4. Case A: improving market-oriented
The first strategic planning of the company (strategy
business innovations
A) focused on target market segment of business lunch
This section takes a tea brand company for a case study and identified the target customers working in the bank-
and demonstrates that how the proposed SSDSS helps ing and international trade industries from commercial
business innovations and market development. The area. Abundant strategic alliances with diverse banks and
KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT RESEARCH & PRACTICE 5
international traders were connected and strengthened explained in the process of the entrepreneurial ideas and
by B2B credit card consumption, business coupon, and strategic planning. X-axis represents time unit (month)
app coupon. This strategy focused on two major ideas in this study. Y-axis represents the key measurable per-
that strategic alliance could extend the customer con- formance concerned by the managers, such as revenue,
tacts with broader channels and could utilise the estab- marketing cost, customer in each stage of mind, and
lished bank members with higher commitment from cumulative profit in this study. The longitudinal pat-
the alliance. The scenario analysis and simulation results terns are the kinds of results we might expect from using
suggest a two-year path of revenue growth, while the first SSDSS, while running the model multiple times with
year revenue is not significantly increased. Most of the changes in managerial policies or other key influences.
potential customers will be promoted to buyers, while
disloyal customers are estimated 47.44% increased and 5. Case B: improving sustainability-oriented
loyal customers are estimated 22.04% increased after two business innovations
years. For three years estimation, 66.42% disloyal cus-
tomers increased and 37.04% loyal customers increased. To demonstrate the sustainability-oriented innovations
Consequently, 10.3% cumulative profits increased after and business development with innovative green sup-
two years and 16.9% cumulative profits increased after ply chains, this section takes a 70 billion NTD annually
three years could be estimated based on the data of oper- paper printing and publishing industry as the example.
ating cost and revenue (as shown in Table 1). Towards the concept of sustainability, even though the
An alternative strategic planning of the company green consumption and UPM green paper product inno-
(strategy B) focused on reinvestigating the menu and vation have been a global trend in the international com-
service process redesign to satisfy customer’s choices and munity (UPM annual output already reached 10 billion
fast-moving consumption. Conventionally the menu euros), Taiwanese market is still in the early stages of
was designed only for set meal but the new strategy tries development for such sustainability-oriented innova-
to propose more flexible choices of dishes to the custom- tions and thus requires more entrepreneurial thinking
ers. According, the estimated average consumption per and promotions strategies.
customer will be increased from 438NTD to 500NTD
(14%), while the operating cost per customer will also be 5.1. The Challenges of product and service
increased from 199NTD to 220NTD (10.5%). After the innovations for new market segment
redesign of the menu and the service package, the unit
price and the estimated operations cost are increased but Analysis of the global printing market shows that the tra-
the simulated business performance suggest the feasi- ditional ink printing market registered an annual decline,
bility of this new branding and repositioning strategies. whereas other digital printing industries exhibited an
Even though the overall operations cost is increased as increasing trend. The publishing and printing market
expected, the revenue streams could be significantly will continue to decline as increasingly more printing
increased and the expected profit could be even higher companies convert to digital printing. The printing
than the conventional business model. With this strat- industry in Taiwan is rapidly advancing toward open
egy, disloyal customers are estimated 42.34% increased competition, digitisation, and network integration. Due
and loyal customers are estimated 19.10% increased to the vigorous development of the digital printing tech-
after two years. For three years estimation, 59.55% dis- nologies and the reduction of printing equipment and
loyal customers increased and 32.79% loyal customers consumable costs, more vendors in the printing indus-
increased. The two years and three years cumulative try will turn to specialising in digital printing, invest in
profits will be increased by 27.2 and 34.1%, respectively. relevant software systems in response to the prevalence
As shown in Figure 3, the longitudinal patterns as of cloud services, and transform their business model to
well as the estimated performance over time could be keep in line with the future consumption trend.
Strategy B • Focus on investigating new +42.34% +59.55% Increased by 27.2% Increased by 34.1%
customer and trial promotions +19.10% +32.79%
• Balance others
• Sample testing, coupon and
discount
6 M.-R. YAN
Figure 3. Simulated results of strategic business model innovations and key performance.
To respond the changing market, an urgent demand to system to develop new smart businesses such as an eco-
new product and service should be fulfilled by business logical mattress, which is made from reusing of fibres in
innovations with new technology and market. Based on plant cultivation, thereby advancing toward diversified
the five-stage strategic architecture of market develop- management.
ment, around 90 business customers and 10,300 poten- In the scenario analysis, we test three strategies with
tial business customers have been identified. Business the aforementioned innovations. The first strategy
development and promotion strategies in different stages focuses on increasing brand image by mass advertising
are also established as the guidance for actions, such as and values advertising to the potential 10,000 business
Google Adwords, mass-media advertising, remarketing, customers, while the relationship with existing cus-
exhibition, coupon, service, free tours and etc. tomers is not emphasised. The second strategy focuses
on investigating new customer and trial promotions.
5.2. Evaluating the impacts of business The target customers in aware and informed stage are
innovations with different strategies emphasised in transforming business opportunity to
reality. The third strategy focuses on loyal customers
In the existing market, the company provides FSC-COC and loyalty promotions. High value added products
papers (products made from responsibly managed for- and services to existing business customers are empha-
ests) and develops new service skills such as FSC-COC sised with the expectation of relationship enhancement
integrated printing system, enabling the company to and value chain collaborations. As shown in Figure 4
cooperate with FSC-COC approved printing factories and Table 2, the impacts of innovations by different
to collectively receive orders from terminal customers strategies in promoting market development could
or publishing companies. Therefore, the company can be demonstrated and analysed. The simulation results
determine the types of papers customers need and earn suggest that, for strategy A, 111.28% disloyal customers
relatively more reasonable profit, while promoting an increased and 47.04% loyal customers decreased after
integration of up- and downstream functions. Regarding two years, while 103.79% disloyal customers increased
new markets, the company established a new affiliated and 54.42% loyal customers decreased after three years.
enterprise to be in charge of assisting printing companies Consequently, 30.67% cumulative profits increased
or timber/forestry companies to acquire FSC-COC cer- after two years and 6.41% cumulative profits decreased
tification. During this process, the company can engage after three years could be estimated based on the data
with multiple printing-related companies or timber-pro- of operating cost and revenue. The simulation results
ducing companies, which can not only facilitate new for strategy B suggest that 33.37% disloyal customers
business development but also access new paper-related increased and 106.43% loyal customers increased after
business opportunities. Regarding new technological two years, while 14.58% disloyal customers decreased
markets, the company plans to set up a certification and 50.28% loyal customers increased after three years.
KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT RESEARCH & PRACTICE 7
Consequently, 70.56% cumulative profits increased after The changes of customers in different stages are able
two years and 30.6% cumulative profits increased after to be displayed systematically, while the estimated two
three years could be estimated. For Strategy C, the sim- years sales and three years sales are comparable for
ulation results suggest that 29.35% disloyal customers supporting decision-making with different strategic
decreased and 76.05% loyal customers increased after objectives (ex: sales or number of customers). Through
two years, while 48.69% disloyal customers decreased computer simulation technique, the proposed model
and 47.36% loyal customers increased after three years. helps enterprises to increase the dynamic planning
Consequently, 71.53% cumulative profits increased after capabilities, business strategy performance and create
two years and 63.12% cumulative profits increased after added value. In addition, the potential customers and
three years could be estimated. existing customers could be handled by five customer
8 M.-R. YAN
market stages in response to strategic planning under and subjective judgments in decision-making process.
different resources and market conditions. The analy- Second, decision rules can be systematically investigated
sis of the customer base, product innovation strategy, with numerical data from the field. Managers’ decision
market development strategies, operating cost, business rules can be estimated from data on decisions and the
performance assessment strategies could be performed information available to managers at the time they made
by computer simulation. The quality of decision-making those decisions. Third, it improves the understanding of
for industrial operations could be enhanced. resource accumulation and implementation strategies
that facilitate knowledge management and organisa-
6. Discussion and implications tional learning.
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