generalization

L
I
M mean,

02 X estimation variance, s
-2
I
T
P proportion,

Sample

Population

Chapter 3: Estimation
DR. ADINA NAJWA KAMARUDIN
 Topic
Introduction; Inferential Statistics
3.1
3.3
LaMCU confidence interval

I
Point EstimateInterval EstimateJ
-
value
single
Xn
X X, + xct
3.2
...
=

Confidence Interval for a Single Mean x -N(m,]

3.4
Confidence Interval for Difference of Means -XzwN(M.-Ma, te
X.

Confidence Interval for a Single Proportion P-N[M, =]

35
G
Confidence Interval for Difference of Proportions -P2wN(M,-M2, t P,

Confidence Interval for a Single Variance

so
Confidence Interval for Ratio of Variances [] itra"ee
 30/4

Introduction
Previous chapter, we have learnt the distributions of population and
random sample.
Descriptive statistics such as mean, variance and distribution have
been discussed to describe our data.
In this chapter, the inferential statistics is being introduced.
Inferential statistics; use information from a random sample to make
a generalization of the population.
Estimation; we estimate our population parameters using statistic in a
sample. x, s, P
 value;estimate
-

->

M S x

M >P

Terminology -

parameter
>S

estimator

A statistic from random sample is the estimator for a population

parameter
The value assigned to a population parameter based on sample
statistic is called estimate
Two types of estimations are point estimate and interval estimate.
Point estimate gives a single estimate while interval estimate provides
a range of estimates with lower and upper limits. LM < V

EConfidence IntervalI is an interval constructed around the point

L
estimate with certain level of confidence associated.
Based on a value

x 1
= -
level
confident"
of
-> 2
als
3.2 Point Estimate
The population mean is estimated using the sample mean
L

estimator

is the estimator of the population mean

An unknown population variance can be estimated using point
estimator 8
EIxx)"iusecalculator
=
S =

I
*

Best (most efficient) estimator: P

=
=

a) Be unbiased
b) Have minimum variance
3.3 Interval Estimate [Lamc]
An interval around the point estimate between lower limit and upper
limit
The probability that the point estimate within the interval can be
expressed;

This interval is called a 100(1- )% confidence interval of the true

parameter
Interpretation: We are 100(1- )% confident that the true parameter
is between the lower limit and upper limit.
41:
99%
Ex:100(1
-
 >
One population

3.4 Confidence Interval for a Single Mean

The best estimator for population mean is the sample mean
As we have learnt in the previous chapter, the sampling distribution
of sample mean, in thein
:(1
H
-

x)

Thus, we transform to Z distribution using this formula;

r

Solve for ; Lower limit

The 100(1- )% confidence interval for the population mean ;

margin
with L is and U is error

lower limit
·(i)
upper limit
 Three cases we need to consider E
1. When the population variance is known

and
The 100(1- )% CI for the population mean is
ammon

2. When the population variance is unknown and

The 100(1- )% CI for the population mean is

I 3. When the population variance is unknown and

aiontio The 100(1- )% CI for the population mean is
Exercises
n < 30

A random sample of 16 compact cars tested for fuel consumption

gave a mean of 12.5km per liter with a standard deviation of 0.83 km
per liter. Assuming that the fuel consumption in km per liter of all
compact cars have a normal distribution, construct a 99% confidence
interval for the population mean of fuel consumption for compact
cars.
X-w(1.5,0.043)
M: 12.5
0:0.83
X
case 3

X-tai, n-if x+txiz,n

< M(
-i
12.5 -

2.947()(m
> 12.5
2.947/)
+

11.8885 <M< 13.1115

SEA Steel Corporation produces iron rings that are supplied to ABKIA
Co Ltd. These rings are supposed to have a diameter of 60 cm. The
machine that makes these rings does not produce each ring with a
diameter of exactly 60cm. The diameter of each of the rings varies
slightly. It is known that when the machine is working properly, the
rings made on this machine have a mean diameter of 60cm. The
quality control department takes a random sample of 35 such rings
every week, calculates the mean of the diameters for these rings, and
makes a 99% confidence interval for the population mean.
If either the lower limit of this confidence interval is less than
59.938cm or the upper limit of this confidence interval is greater than
60.063cm, the machine is stopped and adjusted. The most recent
n
-

drawn sample of 35 rings produces a mean diameter of 60.038cm

S
X

with a standard deviation of 0.15cm. Based on this sample, can you

conclude that the machine needs an adjustment?
 -

x
Zak < M<x+
Zak
-
60.038-2.550() < m>60.038 2.555))
+

59.97272M<60.183359.938>M>60.063
... Yes
Confidence Interval for Difference of Means
As we have learnt in the previous chapter, the sampling distribution of the difference of
means,

Thus, we transform to Z distribution using this formula;

Solve for ;
The 100(1- )% confidence interval for the population mean ;
with
L is and U is
 Three cases we need to consider
1. When the population variances are known
The 100(1- )% CI for the difference of population means is

2. When the population variances are unknown and

The 100(1- )% CI for the difference of population mean is
a)

Where
sprled
b)

3. When the population variances are unknown and

The 100(1- )% CI for the difference of population mean is
a)

Where
b)

Where
Exercises [Discuss:Sun]
n,, n=<30

A car reviewer is comparing the total repair costs incurred during the
first three years on two mid-sized cars, the Adria and the Wanem.
Random samples of 16 Adria and nine Wanem are taken. All 25 cars
are three years old and have similar mileages. The mean of repair
M
costs for the 16 Adria cars is RM5,000 for the first three years with a
S

standard deviation of RM800.For the nine Wanem cars, the mean is

M S
RM7,700 with a standard deviation of RM1,000. Assume that the
repair costs follow a normal distribution with the Esame population Sp
variance.3 Construct a 90% confidence interval for the difference
between the two populations means.
 *
Case 3 (a)

Where
=
(15) (800) +(0)/1000(
16 9-2
+

874.767
=

(x,-x2) =M. -Mz(x,-xi)tEntna-sp h

tn thz-2sp
-

(M1 M2 (500 770) 1.714(874.767)

+
-
-

1,000-7700) 1.714(874.767)
-

M2 = - 2075.2706
-
3324.72942M, -

-2075.2705
btwo-3324.7295 and
We are 90% confidentthat the diff repair cost for both cases is

zero in the
(-2.3,5.7)
I
significant
no
not (

*
If the diff (significant]? interval

↓
Yes.
A process engineer is comparing two different etching solutions for
removing silicon from the back of wafers. The etch rates follow a
normal distribution and have equal population variances of . sa
Below are the observed etch rates from 10 wafers for each solution.
1, Hc 18
=
=

Solution 1 Solution 2 n,, n2<30

9.7 10.1 3, 0.4526

=

S, 0.2049
=

9.3 10.5 S2 0.2066

=

S2 =
9.1 10.6 0.0427

9.5 10.3
10.0 10.3
10.5 9.9
10.2 10.1
9.9 10.2
10.3 10.3
10.1 10.1
X, 9.56
=

x2 10.24
=
 interval
9
Find a 90% Lfor the difference in mean etch rates.-
Case I

99%
b
ConstructhCI for the difference in mean etch rates if we do not know
the population variances and assume that both populations have an
unequal variances. -Xa)-tiVi*(m,
Case 3(b)
its )
b) (X,
-Me) = (x, - x2) tair
+
wherev:

al(xx-2a itis in Viennaen

·
19.86-10.24) 427_(m, M2) (9.56-10.24)
3.01-49+27
+

-
3.012 0.2049 +
-
-

10 10
M2 0.0939
0.6539-M,
-
=
-

contain O
... Not significant, CM,-M2)
M. M2
-
0.1225
= -

-
0.6375

-12.5950
13
=
>No condition 7/5
sample (n2,30)
Always big

Confidence Interval for Proportion is: 4

The best estimator for population proportion is the sample mean

As we have learnt in the previous chapter, the sampling distribution of
sample proportion, S

Thus, we transform to Z distribution using this formula;

change to P

Solve for ; . Since the population proportion is

unknown, thus replace with P instead.

The 100(1- )% confidence interval for the population proportion ;

with L is and U is
Thus, the 100(1- )% CI for the proportion is
Exercises
n T

A random sample of 400 components were tested and 6.25 percent

of the sample components fail to satisfy production specifications.
Find a 90% CI on the true proportion of components that fail to satisfy
the specifications.
Zai) m)
P-2ax)
P(1
P1) = 4 P +
-

1.6449)6.25
n

164496.25(6.25))
-

416.25
+

6.25 - -

0.042624 [0.0824
A manufacturer of computer chips inspected a random sample of
1000 chips. The following are the number of defects according to
their types.
Types Number of defects
Holes too small 90
Holes too large 25
Poor connections 10
Chip oversize 2
Chip undersize 1

What is the point estimate of the proportion of defective ships due to

holes too small? P =

0.09
=

Construct a 90% CI for the proportion of defective chips for the

production process due to holes too small.
2a) )
=P 2xx)Px P)) P
-
=
4
+

=0.09-1.6449(0.091-0.09)) 2410.09
1,6449) 0.09100 (
+

=
(0.04038,0.1396(
What is the point estimate for proportion of defective chips due to
P
poor connection? =
0.01
=

Construct a 90% CI for the proportion of defective ships for the

production process due to poor connection.
If oversize and undersize chips can be classified as incorrect chip size,
what is the point estimate of the proportion of defects due to
P 3

incorrect chip size?

=
=0.003

1000

Hence find a 95% interval estimate for the proportion of defective

chips due to incorrect chip size. 2 0.025
=

Zai) m) =P I
P(1
P1) = 4 P +
-

2a) )
2a12
=

P))
-

P n

=P 2xx)Px
- =
4
+

1.9600(0.003(1-0.003))
=

-1.9600(0.003(50.003)) 24 10.003 +
-

n
=0.003
3

=0.01
-1.6449) 0.010.01)
2410.01
+

1,6449) 0.0121-0.01)
10 =
( 0.05889,0.06489)
-

=
(-0.0418,0.0618 (
Confidence Interval for Difference of
Proportions [H 30] is always -,

The sampling distribution for difference in sample proportions,

Thus, we transform to Z distribution using this formula;

>P

Solve for ; E . Since the

population proportion is unknown, thus replace with P instead.
 The 100(1- )% confidence interval for the difference of population
proportion ;

with

L is E
and U is E

Thus,

E E
Exercise
P, 0.2
=
n1 501
=

500
P2 0.2542:
=

A survey conducted by independent Engineering Education Research

Unit found that among teenagers aged 17 to 19, 20% of school girls
and 25% of school boys wanted to study in engineering discipline.
Suppose that these percentages are based on random samples of 501
school girls and 500 school boys. Determine a 90% CI for the I =
0.05
=

difference between the proportions of all school girls and all school
boys who would like to study in engineering discipline.
41(1 41) Pr(1 P)
-

=(P, -P)
-

2
+

=(0.2-0.25) = 1.6449 to+ eos

500

(-0.09334, -0.006656)
=

:.Yes, the interval does not contain zero value

 11/5

D Binomial
CT 30<MC

ei""
Normal,
(Discretel

Confidence Interval for Variance 2.5 2.5

,x=00s
Involves IChi-Square Distribution.I 40.05, 2

The graph is skewed to the right and takes only positive values
denotes the number along the horizontal axis that cuts off to its
left an area of under the chi-square distribution with degrees of
freedom.
So the probability can be found from the statistical
table.
Recall is distributed as with degrees of
freedom. K degree of
freedom

td/2 I
n -
1

tx/2, H1 12 +
-
2
 To construct the confidence interval;

-
>1 -
x

Rin NE
sample

(n 1)s2
-

= 21 (n-1)s"

Rain- Hi -

in
Exercises
n 13 =

A random sample of 13 bolts is selected and the inside diameter is

measured. The sample standard deviation of the bolt inside diameter
is 0.018mm. Construct a 90% CI for the [standard deviation.I
3 0.0182
=

1 -
x 0.9
=

X 0.1 =

(n 1)s2
-

(n-1)s
10 I

Rain- Hi -

in

(13 1) (0.011"
-

=
0 1 (13-1) (0.010)"
21.0161 5.2268

0.01360 =
0 (0.02728
An optical firm is concerned about the variability of the refractive
index of a typical glass when its employee grinds it into lenses. The
refractive index is approximately normally distributed. A random
n

sample of 15 glasses is drawn from a large shipment which give a

variance of refractive index. Construct a 95% CI for the
2:0.05
standard deviation of refractive index of all glasses.
= 10-4
S 1.5 x

(n-1)s =0 (n-1)s
1

Rain- Hi -

in

(15 1) (1.5x184)
-

=
0 ( (15
- 1)(1.5x104)
26. 1189 5.6287

8.967x18 0 =0.01932
Confidence Interval for Variances
Involves F distribution.
It is used in two-sample situations to draw inferences about the
population variances.
Let say there are two independent random variables U and V having
chi-square distribution with v1 and v2 degrees of freedom,
respectively. Then

Then random variable with , can be

found from the statistical table.
 The sampling distribution of F statistics is
cratio
rx-Enan,

is distributed as with and degrees of freedom.

Thus, the confidence interval
Mr/
/
,,
Fr.x, V,,ba
,

Since table
only up to
x 0.1,then
change to
=

Using Remember!
*
Exercises
1. An engineer is studying an axial load of aluminum cans. It is
measured using a plate where an increasing pressure is applied on
top of the can until it collapses. This maximum weight that the sides
of the can can support is the axial loads. Two random sample of
n nz
sizes 10 and seven aluminum cans are selected and the standard
Si S2

deviations are 10.1 kg and 11.8 kg respectively. Find a 90% CI on the

0 0.1
ratio of variances of the loads. =

3. I
I -Si fx12,nz -
1,n,
-
1

8. S.
Safas, n-1, Na-t

isi t
3.37

70.1787, 2.4689)
 x 1 -0.9 0.1
=
=

x 1 -0.9:0-1
=

0.05
x 1 -0.95
=
=

Hi n2 6
=
=
X S

372.1770.67 X 1 -0.95 0.05

= =

382.6743.46

x 1 =
-
0.95 0.05
=

x 1 -0.9
=
0
=
-
1

a) X-tx1,n-1s = m = x tax2,n
+
-
1 sb) X- tai,n-1s = m = x tax2,n
+
-
1 S c) Sp=(n,-17S,+(H2-1) Sa"
T In T In n, 12
+ -
2

372.17 -
2.015(70.677M3372.17 2.015(70.67) +
382.17 -
2.015(43.4672M22.17 2.015(43.46) +

(5)(70.07)
=
+(5)(43.46)2

15 V 15 V 6 6
+ - 2

(314.035,430.305) (346.419,417.921) 58.66

=

-conditions The true depend other (x,-x2)-taxa, (x, x2) tax, nena-asp
,
is M
mitha-nsp*
mean on = -
Mr _ +

i) sample was drawn from a normal population parameters too, not only 21-

ii) variance known (972.17-582.67) -2.228(70.66) (572.17- 382.67) 2.228(70.66)

11 1+ 1
is +

=
M1 -
M2 +

6 6
iii) sumple size small

85.956,64.956)
1-

a) s
=
70.6692 e) =43.459 f) ↳ 8. S, fax, n2-1, n.-1

Sa"falz, nil, nat : Si

2
(n-1)s I o
"
(n-1) 82 (n-1)s I (n-1) 82 70.669 I I o, I 70.669 5.05
I O

Rak,n- Rak,n-
2

Ki-x/2,
2

n-1 Ki-x/2, n-1

43.459
5.05 O 43.454

5(70.869)20 = 5170.167) 5(43.459)2 (0.52361,13.35334)

"

O = 5/43.459)2
12.8325 0.8312 12.8325 0.8312

(1945.88,30041.55) (27.127, 106.589(

 Ox:
* 2d population
Sx: ad sample

X SX

7.818
20.625

15 6.062

i) ii) f005,7,8 iii)

3.50

= If
* -0.2 <M, -M2< 1.2
=

x, f0.05,8,7
20.627 :Not
significant. contains O
=

3.73
=

Different
xz =
15 0.475218, = 6.2039
x-sign
2
8,
S. I
-0 E Si (3.73) M,< M2 =
0

Si
3.50
Or Sa
Sx, 7.818
=

:There is 1 in the interval Mi Mz

=

7.218"
2

Sx2 = 6.062 7.818 I

↳ 8,2 I (3.73)
6.0622 3.50 8, 6.0822

(0.4752,6.2039 (

:Shown!
 n 10
=

X S

129.184 0.776

1 -
0.95 0.85
=

1-0.99 0.01 =

i) X-tx1,n-1s = m = x tax2,n
+
-
1 S ii) (n-13s" I o
"

(n-1) 82 iii) O 1
=

T In Rak,n- hi-x/2, n-1 O

129.189-2.262(0.786) M
= =
129.189 2.262(0.750)
+
910.756; o2 = al0.75 0.2357 <M <
3.2049
T Vo
23.5894 1.7349 :.
There is I in the interval

(128.6268,129.7517 (0.2357,3.2049)
 x1 70.25, 12.063
=
=

x2 68.432 10.047
= =

0.95
a 1
=
-

1, 2 10
=
=

5, 02
=
0.05
=>

2 1 -0.9 =
0.1
=

i) ii)
fass,ni,
8. Si falz,
Sp (n,-17s,+ (nwils." ↳ n.-1
↳
=
n2-1,
n, 12
+ -
2
ma
: Si

(9)(12.003)
=
+(9)(10.047)2 12.003 I I o, L 12.003 3. 18
2
3. 18
10 10
+ - 2 10.047 O 10.047

:11.1 (0.4533,4.5842)

(x,-x2)-taxa, M (x, x2) tax, nena-asp

mitha-nsp* ,
= -
Mr _ +

(10.2-68.4) -2101(11.1) 1(10.2 -66.4) 2.101(111)

ft
M1 M2
ft
+

16

1- 8.6295, 12.2295)
 n x:7.9591=0.0431

2 1 -0.9 0.1
=

i) X-tx1,n- 1s = m x tax2,n
=
+
-
1 S ii) (n-1)s =
0 ? (n-1)82

T In Rak,n- hi-x/2, n-1

9(0.0431)==
"

7.989 -
1.83370.043172127.989 1.833(0.0431)
+ O 910.0431)
-
10 O 16.919 3.3251

(7.96482,8.013987 (0.0314, 0.5711)

 variance
[ I
2:1-0.98=0.02

i) f0.01, 9,9=5.35 x, 48.59

=
S1 4.691
=

ii) No significant difference. The interval contains 1 iii)

f0.01, 9,9=5.35 X2 86.39

= S2 2.265
=

Sp (n,-17 S,+(n2-1) Sc"

=

n, 12+ -
2

S. Si (5.35)
2
I
I 0, E (9)(4.691) (9)(2.205)
=
+

Si 5.35 Or Sa 10 10
+ - 2

4.691 I
↳ 8,2 4.6912(5.35)
= 3.683
:

2.26525.35 8, 2.2652

(0.8017, 22.9482( (x,-x2)-taxa, M (x, x2) tax, nena-asp

mitha-nsp* ,
= -
Mr _ +

(46.59-26.39) (48.59-86.39) 2.101(3.683)

Equal
2-101(3.683)f*
:. M1 M2
t
- +
-

=
=

( -

45.261, -

34-339)
6 -

49.538, -
34.002)

:It
significant. There
is is
no zero in the interval
 Single sample

x 0.05
=

P -1.96 P(1 -
P) 0.952328
= 0.96-1.960.96(1-0.90) =0.95232
6 n

P 1.96
+ P(1 P)
-

0.96768
=
⑳ n 2501
=

PP
+
-
0.95232:0.96768

2P 1.92
=

P 0.96
=