Applied Mechanics and Materials Vols.

226-228 (2012) pp 1228-1231 Online: 2012-11-29

© (2012) Trans Tech Publications, Switzerland
doi:10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.226-228.1228

Tall Building Subsidence Data Regression Analysis Methods

and the Final Settlement Value Prediction
Zhong Yin XU 1, a,Shan Jun LIU 1, b and Li Xin WU 1, 2, c
1
College of Resources and Civil Engineering Northeastern University, Shenyang 110819, China
2
Academe of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Beijing Normal University, Beijing
100875, China
a
xuzhongyin@mail.neu.edu.cn, bliushanjun@mail.neu.edu.cn, cwulixin@mail.neu.edu.cn

Key words: Subsidence monitoring, Regression analysis, Variance, Prediction

Abstract. In order to provide reference data for the safe construction and validation of the design
method is correct, the subsidence monitoring for tall buildings (high-rise structures) which are being
in the construction or completed. In this paper according to the actual settlement monitoring data,
on basis of considering the construction stage, the settlement data were segmented regression
analysis. The results show that in stage of load (in construction) uniform increasing, the settlement
and load a linear regression analysis results are better than the results of settlement with time linear
regression analysis, While in the building after the completion, the settlement with time were the
logarithm function regression analysis, hyperbolic regression analysis and power function
regression analysis. The regression analysis results show that hyperbola regression analysis method
is of minimum variance and the regression analysis effect is best, the final settlement value was
predicted and providing reference basis for construction and design.

Introduction
The subsidence monitoring for the buildings which are being in the construction or completed, has
two purposes:(1) through the deformation monitoring of building (structure ), forecasting the
abnormal deformation of various buildings in the construction or in using, providing a reference for
the construction and management, and taking appropriate measures to ensure the engineering
quality and the safety of the buildings in unusual case; (2) obtaining the real time information
through the deformation monitoring, and then verifying the calculation method of basis and
structure, and providing data for the subsequent design and scientific research. Based on the
settlement data of foundation of high-rise building, the regression analysis method for the
settlement data has been discussed, and the final settlement values are predicted.

Settlement observation
The data in this paper are the foundation settlement data of a 33
storeys high-rise building and the building is in raft foundation,
the shear wall structure. The bearing layer of foundation is gravel
sand. According to the building structure design, based on the
code for building deformation measurement [1] (JGJ 8-2007) , 6
foundation settlement observation points are settled in the main
body of the building. The layout of settlement observation points
are shown in Figure 1.
Fig. 1 Layout of settlement
A Leica electronic level DNA03 with precision of ±
observation pointS
0.3mm/km and matching bar code leveling staff are used in field
observation. The settlement observation point precision is two level precision according to the code
for building deformation measurement (JGJ8-2007). The settlement observational data were
observed and at the same time, the current load data were also recorded. The settlement and load
data are shown in Table1. The data in Table is the average value of current six settlement
observation points.

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 Applied Mechanics and Materials Vols. 226-228 1229

Table 1 Data of settlement and load

Time[d] Settlement[mm] Load[T·m-2] Time[d] Settlement[mm] Load[T·m-2]
16 3.36 3.52 215 18.31 31.73
34 4.58 8.46 288 18.46 31.73
67 6.87 14.80 391 19.06 31.73
87 10.56 21.30 452 19.66 31.73
105 14.88 28.55 542 19.95 31.73
116 16.52 31.73 630 20.09 31.73

Analysis of settlement data

Curve of settlement and time and load. According to the data in Table 1, the curve of settlement and
time and load is drawn in Figure 2.
Figure 2 shows that the settle curve
include three stages. Stage I is from 35
the start to the end of building 30
construction, settlements increased 25
-2

linearly. Stage II is a period of time Curve of settlement

Settlement/mm Load/Tm

20 Curve of load
after the completion of building, 15
settlement appears slow change trend 10
with the time. The settlement and 5
time has nonlinear relationship in 0
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
this stage. Stage III is stable phase, -5
the settlements remain stability, not -10
change with the time. -15 I II III
Settlement and load regression -20
analysis, settlement and time -25

regression analysis. In the regression Fig. 2 Curve of settlement with time

analysis for settlement, the whole and load
process of regression analysis, some
scholars applied the hyperbolic function and exponential function for regression analysis of the
settlements and time [2], and others applied linear function, logarithmic function, exponential
function and power function [3]. On the basis of considering the characteristics of subsidence stage,
the piecewise function analysis is also used and obtained a good prediction [4]. In this paper, on the
basis of considering the characteristics of subsidence stage, the stage regression analysis is used for
settlement.
According to characteristics of curve of settlement with time and load in Figure 2, the
settlements are analyzed with stage regression analysis method. In Stage I of Figure 2, Settlement
with time and load presents a linear variation. In Stage II and III of Figure 2, the settlement with
time has nonlinear relationship. Therefore, in Stage I, the linear regression analysis of settlement
with time and load is applied. In Stage II and III, the regression analysis of settlement with time is
applied, during this period, the building has been completed, and the load is no longer increased.
The days in table 1 for the separating point to subsidence stage I and stage II is 116th days.
In Stage I, do subsidence with time regression analysis and settlement with load regression
analysis. According to the settlement and time, the settlement and load scatter plot, the settlement is
both with a linear relationship, so we do settlement with time, settlement with load a linear
regression analysis. The result of regression analysis is in Table 2. and T test value in table 2 are
greater than tα/2(n-2)=t0.025(4)=2.7764 , that is settlement with load and time has a significant linear
relationship.
1230 Vibration, Structural Engineering and Measurement II

Table 2 Results of settlement with load and time a linear regression analysis
Regression analysis method Correlation T-test(Correlation coefficient r or Variance[mm2]
coefficient(r) Coefficient b)
Linear regression analysis of the 0.996 24.01 0.28
settlement and load
Linear regression analysis of the 0.979 9.55 1.69
settlement and time

Table 2 data shows that the correlation coefficients and t-test values of settlement with load a
linear regression analysis are greater than the corresponding value of the settlement with time linear
regression analysis. The variance of the settlement with load 1 linear regression analysis to be less
than the one of the settlement amount of time linear regression analysis. The result of settlement
with load linear regression analysis was better than the settlement with time linear regression
analysis. The regression equation is S=0.13+0.507×P.
Where S is settlement [mm]; P is load [T·m-2]. The Settlement with load linear regression straight
line is shown in Figure.3. Return value error of ±0.53mm. Linear regression residuals are shown in
Figure 4. Residuals value is less than 2 times the error. That is less than ±1.06mm.

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
18 18 1.5
Regression line Residuals
16 16 2 times the error
Observed value 1.0
14 14
12 12 0.5
Settlement/mm

Residuals/mm

10 10
0.0
8
8
6 -0.5
6
4
4 -1.0
2 2 times the error
2
0 -1.5
0 5 10 15 20
-2
25 30 35 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Load/(T·m ) Load/(T·m-2)
Fig. 3 Settlement and load regression line Fig. 4 Residuals chart

In stage II and III, do settlement with time regression analysis. In Figure.2 the phase II and III,
relationship between settlements and time is of nonlinear function, so we choose the following 3
types of function for the settlement and time regression analysis:
1) Logarithmic function
S=a+b×lnT
2) Hyperbola function
1/S=a+b/T
3) Power function
S=a×Tb
Where S is settlement [mm]; T is time [d]. Table 3 is results of regression analysis.

Table 3 Settlement and time regression analysis results of phase II and III
Regression analysis method Correlation T test(Correlation coefficient r or Variance[mm2]
coefficient(r) Coefficient b)

Logarithmic function 0.988 14.54 0.042

Hyperbola 0.995 22.93 0.0004
Power function 0.984 12.52 0.056
 Applied Mechanics and Materials Vols. 226-228 1231

Table 3 data shows that for the settlement and time regression analysis in phase II and III, the
correlation coefficient of the selected 3 types of regression function is relatively large, and T-test
value are greater than tα/2(n-2)=t0.025(5)=2.5706 that is the regression effect is remarkable. And the
hyperbola regression effect is best. The regression equation is 1/S=0.048+1.498/T. The hyperbola
regression curve of settlement and time shows in Figure.5. Return value error of ±0.15mm.
Hyperbola regression residuals chart is shown in Figure.6. Residuals value is less than 2 times the
error. That is less than ±0.30mm. The hyperbola regression equation of settlement with time shows
as T goes to infinity and the prediction of final settlement value is 20.83mm.
Do regression analysis of full time settlements with time. For the whole period of settlement with
time regression analysis, type selection of regression function as function 1), 2), 3). And results of
regression analysis as shown in table 4.

Table 4 Full time settlement with time regression analysis results

Regression analysis method Correlation T test(Correlation coefficient r or Variance[mm2]
coefficient(r) Coefficient b)

Logarithmic function 0.930 7.97 12.07

Hyperbola 0.966 11.92 4.48
Power function 0.949 9.52 4.37

Table 4 data shows that for the whole period of settlement and time regression analysis, the
correlation coefficient of the selected 3 types of regression function is relatively large, and T test
value are greater than tα/2(n-2)=t0.025(10)=2.764 that is the regression effect is remarkable. But the 3
types of regression analysis variance are greater than the piecewise regression analysis variance. In
the above 3 kinds of regression function, hyperbolic function regression effect is best.

Conclusion
As shown in our experiments, the regression analysis results is of high practical value. In the
literature [4], segmented regression analysis is based on the increase of load rate selection.
Respectively settlement - load linear regression analysis and settlement - load index regression
analysis. In this paper, the piecewise regression analysis is the selection of load dividing point
uniform increase to cap moment, respectively settlement - load linear regression analysis and
settlement time hyperbola regression analysis. The above two kinds of regression analysis method
has achieved good results. This shows that in regression analysis should consider phase change
characteristics of the settlement. According to the stage of main influencing factors to select
regression variables, use piecewise regression analysis so as to establish a settlement prediction
model can achieve better prediction effect.

Reference
[1] The Ministry of Construction, Code for Deformation Measurement GB 50007-2002, Building
Industry Press, Beijing, 2002.
[2] H.L. Wang, Stability of settlement and stability calculation of time for the settlement
observation of high-rise buildings, J. Mine surveying and mapping. 4 (1999)17-19.
[3] W.Q.Chen, The application of Regression analysis in the deformation analysis, J. Journal of
Institute of Surveying and Mapping, 22 (2005) 249-251.
[4] Y.T.Hong, Beijing Surveying and Mapping, 2 (1999).18.
[5] Q.Y. Li, Engineering Surveying, Publishing House of Surveying and Mapping, Beijing, 1984.
[6] Department of mathematics Zhejiang University, Probability theory and mathematics statistics,
Higher Education Press, Beijing, 1987.
Vibration, Structural Engineering and Measurement II
10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.226-228

Tall Building Subsidence Data Regression Analysis Methods and the Final Settlement Value Prediction
10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.226-228.1228