STAT1005 2022 Semester 1 Test 1

Full Name:

Student Number:

Workshop 1: Mon 12:00 Tue 12:00

(circle your Wed 14:00 (on campus) Wed 14:00 (online) Wed 15:00
WS1 class)
Thu 12:00 Thu 13:00 Thu14:00

Total Marks: 67 Time: 100 minutes

Instructions:

1. This test has 8 pages. If you need more space, add pages to your submission and make
a note on the relevant question page.

2. The test has two sections. Section 1 has 10 multiple-choice questions, where no working
is required. Section 2 has 5 questions, where full working should be shown.

3. This is an individual assessment. You may use any calculation technology, and any
reference material, but the answers must be your own work.

4. When complete, submit your answers as a single PDF document via the Test 1 sub-
mission link on Blackboard.

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Section 1
This section contains 10 questions. For each question, indicate the best answer. Working is
not needed.
1. [2 marks] In a radioactive decay process, alpha particles are emitted independently at
an average rate of 8 per minute. What is the chance that fewer than 5 alpha particles
will be emitted in the next 30 seconds?
(A) 0.0996
(B) 0.1954
(C) 0.6288
(D) 0.7851

2. [2 marks] The random variable X ∼ Bin(12, p) has mean 4.8. What is P (X > 6)?
(A) 0.1582
(B) 0.1766
(C) 0.6652
(D) 0.8418

3. [2 marks] The continuous random variable X has a uniform distribution with E(X) = 0
and Var(X) = 16
3
. What is the upper limit of X?
(A) 2.309
(B) 3
(C) 4
(D) 5.657

4. [2 marks] The random variable X ∼ Exponential(2). What is Var (4X + 3)?

(A) .5
(B) 1
(C) 4
(D) 8

5. [2 marks] Events A and B are independent, with P (A) = 0.4 and P (A ∩ B) = 0.3.
Find P (A ∪ B).
(A) 0.66
(B) 0.7
(C) .75
(D) 0.85

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 6. [2 marks] X is a random variable with E(X 2 ) = 5. Which of the following could be
true?

(A) E(X) = 3.5

(B) E(X) = 5
(C) Var(X) = 5
(D) Var(X) = 25

7. [2 marks] A discrete random variable X takes only positive values, and P (X = 2) =

0.2, P (X = 3) = 0.3. Which of the following must be true?

(A) P (X = 1) > 0.1

(B) P (X ≤ 2) < 0.5
(C) P (X > 3) ≤ 0.5
(D) P (X ≤ 4) = 1

8. [1 mark] If the random variable X has E(X) = SD(X) = 5, what is E(X 2 )?

(A) 5
(B) 25
(C) 30
(D) 50

9. [1 mark] Which of the following can be used to test whether events A and B are
independent?

(A) P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B)

(B) P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B) − P (A ∩ B)
(C) P (A ∩ B) = P (A)P (B)
(D) P (A|B) = P (B)

10. [1 mark] Which of the following is a valid probability distribution for a discrete random
variable X?

(A) P (X = 1) = 0.3, P (X = 2) = 0.1, P (X = 3) = 0.5

(B) P (X = 1) = 0.3, P (X = 2) = 0.2, P (X = 3) = 0.5
(C) P (X = 1) = 0.3, P (X = 2) = 0.8, P (X = 3) = −0.1
(D) P (X = 1) = 0.3, P (X = 2) = 0.3, P (X = 3) = 0.5

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Section 2
This section contains five questions. Provide full working.

1. [9 Marks] During a disease epidemic, it is estimated that 9% of the population have

the disease. A new diagnostic test has been proposed which detects the disease in 92%
of cases when the disease is present, and returns a negative result in 94% of cases when
the disease is not present.
(a) [4 marks] Structure the given information using either a tree diagram, a Venn
diagram or a contingency table. A tree diagram must assign probabilities to each
branch and to the end of each path, a Venn diagram must assign probabilities to
each area, and a contingency table must have totals for rows and columns.

(b) [2 marks] When the test is used in this population, a person receives a positive
result (test says disease is present). What is the chance that the person really has
the disease?

(c) [3 marks] The person from part (b) was told to get tested again with the same
test. Assuming successive tests on the same person are independent, what would
be the chance that the person was diseased if the second result was also positive?

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2. [11 Marks] A production line produces 50 complex items of equipment each week. At
the end of the week 10 items are removed for testing. Let X be the number of defective
items in the testing sample. If 7 items in each week’s output are defective -
(a) [3 marks] What is the distribution of X? Give the name and parameter values.

(b) [2 marks] Calculate V ar(X)

(c) [3 marks] Calculate P (X ≥ 3)

(d) [3 marks] How do the answers to parts (a) and (b) change if the sampling is done
with replacement?

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3. [11 Marks] An archer practicing on a target has probability 0.2 of scoring a bulls-eye
on each attempt. Assume that the attempts are independent. The archer continues until
she scores 4 bulls-eyes, not necessarily consecutively. Let X be the number of misses
before the first hit and let Y be the number of misses before the fourth hit.
(a) [3 marks] State the distributions of X and Y .

(b) [2 marks] Find the mean and variance of Y

(c) [3 marks] Write down the probability of exactly 7 attempts as a probability state-
ment about Y . Evaluate this probability.

(d) [3 marks] Find the probability that there will be more than 6 misses before the
first hit.

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4. [10 Marks] Let X be a continuous random variable with CDF

F (x) = ax3 − 3x2 , 0≤x≤1

(a) [1 mark] What is the value of a?

(b) [2 marks] Find f , the probability density function of X

(c) [3 marks] Compute P (0.3 < X < 0.6)

(d) [4 marks] Find the expectation and variance of X.

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5. [9 Marks] X is normally distributed with mean 47.4 and standard deviation 5.71.
(a) [2 marks] Calculate P (40 < X < 52).

(b) [2 marks] Find P (X ≥ 55).

(c) [3 marks] Find the quartiles of the distribution.

(d) [2 marks] Calculate E(3X 2 ).

END OF TEST

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