RAMJAS

CONSULTING SOCIETY
UNDER THE AEGIS OF PLACEMENT COMMITTEE
RAMJAS COLLEGE, UNIVERSITY OF DELHI

1st Edition

GUESSTIMATE
BOOK
2022-2023
www.ramjasconsultingsociety.org
 INDEX

S.No. Description Page No.

A. Introduction 1

B. How to use this book 2

C. Approach to guesstimates 4

D. Datasheet 5

E. TAM-SAM-SOM 7

F. Miscellaneous 9

G. Guesstimates Type Difficulty Page No.

Estimate the revenue of a movie theatre from the entire screening of Revenue
1 Easy 11
Brahmastra Estimation

Revenue
2 Estimate Weekly revenue of a multiplex Easy 14
Estimation

Revenue
3 Estimate the revenue from a Chhole Bhature food stall Easy 16
Estimation

4 Estimate the amount of oil used in diyas on diwali in india Mathematical Moderate 18

5 Estimate quantity of water needed to fill a 2 storey bungalow Mathematical Moderate 22

Calculate average amount of popcorn found on the floor of a theatre after a

6 Mathematical Challenging 24
screening

7 Estimate the market size of chewing gum in India Market Sizing Moderate 26

8 Estimate maternity clothes market size Market Sizing Moderate 28

9 Estimate market size of scrap glass bottles in india Market Sizing Moderate 31

10 Estimate the number of commercial tyres sold in india in a financial year Market Sizing Challenging 34

11 Estimate the number of white shirts worn on a monday in delhi Unconventional Easy 36

12 Estimate the number of people travelling by delhi metro in a day Unconventional Easy 38

13 Estimate the number of people eating pav bhaji in lunch on a given day Unconventional Easy 40

14 Estimate the number of cheese burst pizza sold in India in a day Unconventional Easy 42

15 Estimate the number of red swift cars in delhi Unconventional Easy 44

16 Estimate the number of laughing emojis used in chats in Delhi in any 1 hour Unconventional Easy 46

17 Estimate the number of cycles in India Unconventional Easy 49

How many people are talking or texting on their cell phones at any given
18 Unconventional Easy 52
instant

19 Estimate the number of Indians on twitter Unconventional Easy 54

20 Estimate the number of rakhis sold online in india Unconventional Easy 56

21 Estimate the number of roses sold on 14tb february in delhi Unconventional Easy 58

22 Estimate the total number of Draw 4s in Uno decks in Delhi Unconventional Easy 61

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 INDEX

S.No. Guesstimate Type Difficulty Page No.

23 Estimate the number of crows in Ahmedabad Unconventional Easy 63

Estimate the total number of people who change their whatsapp DP to the
24 Unconventional Easy 65
Indian flag on Independence Day

25 Estimate the total number of tennis balls that can fit in a Boeing 747 Unconventional Easy 67

26 Estimate the number of golgappas sold in Delhi in a day Unconventional Easy 69

27 Estimate the number of band-aids sold in Delhi in a day Unconventional Moderate 72

28 Estimate the monthly data usage in India Unconventional Moderate 74

Estimate the number of people who miss train in a week after booking tickets
29 Unconventional Moderate 76
online

30 Estimate the number of expired fire extinguishers in Delhi Unconventional Moderate 79

31 Estimate the total number of ATMs in Delhi Unconventional Moderate 81

32 Estimate the number of light bulbs switched on during the day in India Unconventional Moderate 84

33 Estimate the total area of dressing mirrors in Delhi households Unconventional Easy 87

34 Estimate the number of CCTV Cameras in Delhi Unconventional Moderate 89

35 Estimate the number of indians airborne at any given point of time Unconventional Moderate 91

36 Estimate the total internal storage of all smartphones across Delhi Unconventional Moderate 94

Calculate the average number of hours air conditioner is on in Delhi over a

37 Unconventional Moderate 96
year

38 Calculate how many people in India have their birthday on 29 Feb Unconventional Moderate 98

39 Estimate the number of keys lost in india in a day Unconventional Challenging 100

40 Estimate the number of indians awake at midnight Unconventional Challenging 102

How much time did Indians spend playing video games last year? How many
41 Unconventional Challenging 104
lifetimes?

42 Estimate no of 3*3 solved rubik's cube at a point of time Unconventional Challenging 107

43 Estimate the average number of books read by an Indian in their lifetime Unconventional Challenging 109

44 Estimate the number of lakes in the world Unconventional Challenging 112

45 Estimate the average number of commercial aircrafts in APAC Unconventional Challenging 114

46 Amount of brokerage on stock trading earned in india in a day Best-Imates Challenging 117

How many ambulances would be needed in the India so that everyone can be
47 Best-Imates Challenging 119
reached within 8 minutes in an emergency?

48 Estimate the number of chairs in Delhi Best-Imates Challenging 121

Estimate if you'll be able to take a ride in the giant wheel. If not, how may
49 Best-Imates Challenging 125
many people are standing in the line with you

50 Estimate the number of wheels and doors in Delhi Best-Imates Challenging 129

Consulting Society, Ramjas College 2022-23

 HOW TO USE THIS BOOK

Things to keep in mind before reading:

1. All the guesstimates are made from scratch by our team and the calculations are done using
different excel functions therefore numerical accuracy should not be a criterion of one’s
performance. In an interview setting, it is reasonable to use rounded numbers at every step
2. All the assumptions taken into consideration reflect the appropriate time/ scenario/
circumstances that can be put forth to not only make the guesstimates easy on calculations but
also mutually exclusive, collectively exhaustive (MECE) at the same time
3. The brownie points given include new approaches to solve the guesstimate, however, the ones
added in the book are not limited/ exhaustive, and there can be multiple other factors that can
be considered
4. The structure explains the formula used or the basic thinking process that leads us to the
ultimate answer, however, it may vary on the basis of the approach you choose to opt for
5. You can download the entire guesstimate in the form of .xlsx file format for further
convenience through the attached QR
6. We’ve tried to make the book as user-friendly as possible, however in case you have any
problems or errors you wish to address, please mail us at ramjasconsultingsociety@gmail.com

Steps to use this guesstimate book:

1. Choose the guesstimate according to your level of practice. Start with the easy ones if you’ve
no prior experience in solving guesstimates and increase levels as you keep proceeding
2. Make sure you solve the guesstimate on your own before you see the solved approach
3. In case your approach significantly differs from the solved approach in the book, make sure
that you figure out the easier between the two. It’s necessary to remember that there can be
multiple ways of solving a prompt, the solved approach is merely one of those possibilities
4. The level of detail on a guesstimate depends on how much time you’ve been given
5. Once you’ve solved the guesstimate, you can refer to the sanity check to ensure that you’ve
gotten the answer in the ballpark range. The sanity checks use internet data and are not always
calculated on our own

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 HOW TO USE THIS BOOK

Type of Guesstimate Difficulty Level

We’ve tried to include various types of guesstimates and The level of difficulty is based on how commonly the
bifurcated them on the basis of their approaches/solutions information required in the guesstimate is known. The
easier the "industry" the easier the guesstimate would be

Assumptions Structure
It’s necessary to determine the scope of your guesstimate The structure is a breakdown of things you have to
to remove vagueness, hence assumptions play a crucial calculate and shows a more detailed formula of the
role in narrowing it down entire guesstimate

Brownie Points QR Code

These signify the ‘out of the box’ suggestions that an The QR code provided for every guesstimate contains all
interviewee gives regarding the statement of the prompt the guesstimates, the fore-mentioned miscellaneous
and can help bank extra points additions and a ‘sanity Check’ for each prompt

Step wise Distribution Calculations

It is necessary to break down a guesstimate into smaller The calculation undertaken with each step is shown
parts to solve, thus every step has a title to it so that it’s separately through the tables. The formulas for the said
easier to understand this division calculations can be seen through the QR link

Final Answer
It is necessary to break down a guesstimate into smaller
parts to solve, thus every step has a title to it so that it’s
easier to understand this division

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 APPROACH TO GUESSTIMATES

When you’re given a prompt, it’s crucial to figure out your starting point ensuring that the approach you
choose does not involve complex calculations and will require minimal filters so that you can solve it within
a stipulated time.

There are 2 ways of going about your guesstimate:

1. Top-Down Approach: You take a large bracket and start dividing it into smaller parts by adding filers to
determine what’s required. Eg: To determine the number of mobiles sold in a day in India, you divide
the population into “Rural” and “Urban, then you further divide on the basis of income groups, etc. The
filters are added until you reach the final answer thereby breaking a larger bracket into smaller bits
2. Bottom-Up/ Ground-Up Approach: It involved taking low level statistics like revenue per customer and
then determining and then building up the way to the answer. Eg: to determine the revenue of a chole
bhature stall, we can determine the average revenue per customer and then multiply it by the number
of customers and add filters on the basis of peak/non-peak hours.

There are three alternatives to starting a guesstimate:

1. Demand side: This requires you to make the population/ consumers the basis of your guesstimate.
2. Supply Side: This requires you to take different metrics from the seller’s perspective to be taken as the
basis of the guesstimate calculation
3. Unconventional: Some guesstimates that don’t fall into basic categories require you to solve them
through metrics that don’t concern the consumers or the suppliers. Eg: Area-based etc.

Top Down Approach Bottom Up Approach

Guesstimate #13
Guesstimate #8
Calculate the number of people
Demand Side Estimate the market size of
having Pav Bhaji in lunch on a given
Maternity clothes in India
day

Guesstimate #29 Guesstimate #1

Number of people who miss the Estimate the revenue of a movie
Supply Side
train in a week after booking tickets theatre from the entire screening of
online Brahmastra

Guesstimate #47
How many ambulances would be Guesstimate #7
Unconventional needed in India so that everyone can Calculate the number of people
be reached within 8 Minutes in an traveling by Delhi metro in a day
emergency

Note 1: Almost no guesstimate fits in a fixed/rigid bracket of approaches as mentioned in the above table but only broadly follow them. It’s also necessary
to understand that every guesstimate requires assumptions from different perspectives and cannot be made by isolating any factor. Most approaches
follow a mix of the above 6 categories. Eg: No. of pav bhaji plates sold in a day is a bottom-up approach solved from the supply side. However, you can't
estimate the number of plates sold on the basis of the 100% capacity of the shopkeeper, you’ve to include the demand side aspect and account for the
requirement from the consumer’s end as well
Note 2: The above guesstimates have been divided on the basis of the approaches used in the book, they may vary in case you wish to solve the
guesstimate differently.

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 TAM-SAM-SOM

TAM-SAM-SOM
Target Addressable
Service Addressable
Serviceable Obtainable
Market
TAM
Total Addressable Market is the total possible market/market demand for a company's product or
service. It's a great tool for investors as it allows them to estimate the maximum possible revenue a
startip could generate in a given market and its potential scalability.

In order to achieve TAM, a company will have to execute the perfect Blue Ocean Strategy to achieve
TAM

SAM
Service Addressable Market is the sub-market formed from the various geographical, regulatory, or
pricing/quiality market differences within a TAM.

It represents the proportion of the market you are potentially able to capture with you current
product/service, business model, and sales and distribution channels.

SOM
Serviceable Obtainable Market is the sub-sector of the market niche (SAM) that a compnay is
realistically able to target given the limitations of resources, presence of competition, and level of
market awareness.

Start-ups are usually unable to penetrate the entire market from the beginning, hence a SOM serves a
short-term goal- a yardstick which potential investors can use to monitor the company's progress.

TAM
Ideal representation
SAM
for
TAM-SAM-SOM
Analysis SOM

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 GUESSTIMATE #10 Market Sizing

Estimate the number of commercial tyres sold in India in a financial year

ASSUMPTIONS STRUCTURE
Commercial tyres are used to carry passengers
or goods for a price. Number of commercial vehicles manufactured
X
Bikes used as commercial vehicles are not
considered as people use personal bikes for Number of tyres per vehicle
commercial use.
+
The market for commercial vehicles involves Number of wheels for Replacement
vehicles sold to vehicle manufacturers and
replacement segments (accidents, worn-out, =
contingents)
Accident rate
Imports are included in the calculation(demand X
side approach) and exports are excluded.
Number of vehicles
Vehicle manufacturers buy as many tyres as
needed (no extra), RM, and WIP excluded.
+
Worn out wheels
Vehicles like ice-cream trucks/ food trucks etc.
excluded; private jets etc. are also excluded for X
ease. Number of wheels per vehicle
Out of every 100 vehicles, only 20 are +
commercial vehicles (taxis, trucks, tractors, etc.)
Number of tyres bought as contingents
=
BROWNIE POINTS
Number of commercial tyres sold in India in a
While calculating commercial vehicles, counting
the vehicles that the families will financial year
exchange/replace after some years

Considering different life spans of tyres

according to the weight of the vehicle/material
carried in it

Scan this QR Code

or click on the
image to access the
guesstimate on
Excel and for the
sanity check

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 GUESSTIMATE #10 Market Sizing

STEP 1: Calculating the number of commercial vehicles produced during a financial year

STEP 2: Calculating the number of commercial tyres sold in India during a financial year

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 GUESSTIMATE #38 Unconventional

Calculate how many people in India have their birthday on 29 February?

ASSUMPTIONS STRUCTURE
This is being calculated as in February 2023
Division of Population across age groups
The average life expectancy is taken to be 75 X
years
Number of People born in a leap year
In each age bracket, there are equal number of X
people of one age
Probability of being born on 29 February
In every age group, people of certain ages will
be born in leap year like:
=
Total Number of People in India who have their
0-15: 3,7,11,15
16-30: 19, 23, 27 birthday on 29 February
31-45: 31, 35, 39, 43
46-60: 47, 51, 55, 59
60-75: 63, 67, 71, 75

BROWNIE POINTS
It is important to consider that there might be
delayed deliveries or early deliveries to avoid
birthday on 29 Feb and hence, 10% of the
number of people who can have their birthday
on 29 Feb should be removed

Scan this QR Code

or click on the
image to access the
guesstimate on
Excel and for the
sanity check

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 GUESSTIMATE #38 Unconventional

STEP 1: Division of Population across various age groups

STEP 2: Calculating the number of people born in a leap year

STEP 3: Estimating the number of people having their birthday on 29 February

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 GUESSTIMATE #47 Best-imates

How many ambulances would be needed in India, so that everyone can be reached
within 8 Minutes in an emergency?
ASSUMPTIONS STRUCTURE
If the average speed of an ambulance is 60 Kmph, it can
theoretically cover a distance of 8kms in 8 mins, Dividing India into 2 Rectangles for the purpose of
however, after taking into consideration traffic on the calculating the area
roads, we can assume that it will be able to travel 4
Kms in 8 Mins.
For ease of calculation, India is being considered made Area of Rectangle 1
up of 2 rectangles, one lying horizontally, from Gujarat
to the North East, and the other from Kashmir to
Kanyakumari.
Rectangle 1: Northern Most Point to Southern Most Area of Rectangle 2
point- 3000 Km, base-300 Km
Rectangle 2: Easternmost point of India to Western
most point- 3100 Km, base-900 Km
Ambulance will be required in populated and
developed areas only Overlapping Area
The probability is at any point in time, and 5:3:2 is the
ratio of the probability
/
The area covered by the ambulance is the circular area Land use
it can cover in 8 mins, hence the radius will be 5 Kms
Apart from the complete populated and developed /
area, 5% area could be taken from the rest of India,
where an ambulance might be required. Population density
Total area where ambulances may be required can be
further divided into low density, medium density and
high population density area, in the ratio of 2:3:5, Ambulance Coverage (Radius= 4 Kms)
respectively
The probability of having emergency situation in high
density areas will be maximum, followed by medium
density and low density No: of ambulances= (Population Density wise
distribution/ Area coverage by an Ambulance) x
BROWNIE POINTS Probability of Emergency Situations

Coming up with the area approach to this

guesstimate
Factoring in the overlapping area Total Number of Ambulances
Having a more detailed approach as to
probability calculation
The ability to find out the area covered by the
ambulance and coming up with a suitable radius
for the same
Scan this QR Code
or click on the
image to access the
guesstimate on
Excel and for the
sanity check

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 GUESSTIMATE #47 Best-imates

STEP 1: Calculating the area of India and its use-wise distribution

STEP 2: Dividing the area according to population density and assigning probabilities

STEP 3: Calculating the area coverage of an ambulance, and finding the number of ambulances required

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