Professional Documents
Culture Documents
How to cite:
Nussio E and Howe, K 2012 What if the FARC Demobilizes? Stability, 1(1): 58-67. DOI: http://
dx.doi.org/10.5334/sta.aj.
Stability is published by Ubiquity Press and fully open access OPEN ACCESS
PRACTICE NOTE
15,000 armed men during the negotiations, A crucial issue associated with the demo-‐
but more than 30,000 demobilized in the bilization of combatants relates to child sol-‐
end (CNRR 2010). The government claims diers. Data published in a recent study of the
that the inflated numbers were a result of Colombian Family Welfare Institute (El Tiem-‐
the demobilization of non-‐combatant mem-‐ po 2012) indicate that about 50% of all FARC
bers associated with the group, such as those fighters joined this group when they were
who were in charge of logistics or acted as younger than 18 years of age and that youth
informants. Critics state that the AUC delib-‐ recruitment has increased dramatically in
erately increased the number of participants recent years. It is difficult to calculate how
in the demobilization process by recruiting many will still be underage at the moment of
people who were not eligible but nonethe-‐ demobilization, but this topic is critical both
less sought to take advantage of DDR ben-‐ in terms of providing differential assistance
efits. Two top paramilitary leaders (Ever Velo-‐ to former child and adult soldiers and given
za, alias ‘HH’ and Freddy Rendón, alias ‘El that commanders responsible for the forci-‐
Alemán’) have confessed to engaging in this ble recruitment of minors may face judicial
practice (El Tiempo 2011a; El Tiempo 2011b). action.
Given that the FARC has been in existence With respect to disarmament, we have
for many decades, the group has large sup-‐ evidence that the AUC kept a stockpile of
port networks in areas where they have long weapons hidden during its 2003–2006 de-‐
operated. According to the United Nations mobilization process. These weapons may be
Integrated DDR Standards (United Nations in current use by post-‐demobilization armed
2006), people associated with the armed groups.3 The maintenance of secret arsenals
group but who are not necessarily combat-‐ will also be an issue for the FARC, as will be
ants should be eligible for inclusion in the their use and possession of non-‐convention-‐
DDR process. The actual number to demo-‐ al high-‐impact weapons such as homemade
bilize may thus be several times higher than explosive material and landmines. These
the current estimate of FARC combatants.2 weapons should be explicitly included in the
Regarding inflated numbers, it will be cru-‐ disarmament process. In addition, a more
cial to apply clearly defined eligibility crite-‐ general parallel weapons reduction program
ria more strictly than was done under the involving the civilian population – framed as
AUC demobilization process. According to being connected to the FARC’s disarmament
Decree 3360 of 2003, the government con-‐ – might help to reduce the number of illegal
sidered all persons appearing on the lists arms circulating in Colombia, thus contrib-‐
submitted by AUC leaders to be entitled to uting to lower levels of violence in the post-‐
demobilization assistance. Such a criterion conflict period (Muggah 2006).
proved to be too simplistic and trusting in
many ways and should be matched with ad-‐ Will They Get Jobs?
ditional controls and standards. The techni-‐
The economic reintegration of former com-‐
cal design of collective demobilization ap-‐
batants has proven to be challenging in a
plied for the AUC, including international
number of DDR processes and will be so for
oversight by the Organization of American
the case of FARC soldiers. Many former AUC
States (OAS), may offer a good model to rep-‐
fighters and a significant number of guerilla
licate, as long as it adopts a policy of non-‐
deserters have moved to cities not only to
tolerance and prevents false combatants
find jobs but also to restart a more anony-‐
from entering into the process. The broader
mous life, free from social stigma and pos-‐
involvement of international observers in
sible threats from previous friends and foes
addition to the OAS might give the process
(Nussio 2011b). However, the rural identity
more teeth.
and skills of most FARC members should lead
60 Nussio and Howe / What if the FARC Demobilizes?
often referred to them (see also Ugarriza And What About Security?
and Craig 2012). Persistent or increased insecurity follow-‐
Past experiences give a sense of what might ing the DDR of the FARC will be one of the
be possible in the case of the FARC. The politi-‐ largest concerns for citizens, practitioners
cal reintegration model applied to the M-‐19 and policymakers. Demobilization does not
and other guerrilla groups in the early 1990s always lead to better security outcomes, as
was largely successful thanks to a widely held has been seen with the paramilitary process.
perception that the M-‐19 was fighting for Research showed that immediately after the
political ideals and not for private criminal close of the demobilization process with the
interests (Palou and Méndez 2012). They par-‐ AUC, rates of violence decreased (Restrepo
ticipated in creating a new constitution, and and Muggah 2009). However, a longer-‐term
many are important political figures today. view has indicated that the homicide rate is
Regarding the demobilization of the AUC, increasing in areas where reintegration is oc-‐
the political question was excluded from the curring, when holding constant other causes
debate for various reasons–among them the of homicide (Howe, Sánchez, and Contreras
highly criminalized character of the para-‐ 2010). Violence has remained high in those
militaries (Guáqueta 2007). A middle ground areas of the country where there are oppor-‐
between the two extremes may be neces-‐ tunities to extract illegal rents and where
sary for a demobilization of the FARC. For local governance structures are weak (Howe
ex-‐combatants, this would mean translating 2012). The principal threat to security in Co-‐
some of their learned ideology into the po-‐ lombia since 2006 has been the surfacing of
litical sphere. However, direct participation post-‐demobilization armed groups, which
might be limited to mid and lower-‐ranking are variously referred to as successor groups,
ex-‐combatants. The conversion of top FARC neo-‐paramilitaries or criminal gangs (ban-
leaders into congressmen could provoke neg-‐ das criminals, or BACRIM for short). There is
ative feelings amongst the population due to substantial evidence that these groups have
FARC’s involvement in massive human rights a variety of linkages with the former AUC
abuses against the civilian population. Also, (Massé et al. 2010). A similar outcome may
their involvement ultimately depends on the emerge following the FARC DDR process de-‐
transitional justice measures that will accom-‐ pending on such issues as state capacity to
pany DDR. Paramilitary leaders responsible for control FARC-‐dominated areas, the evolution
atrocities received a reduced prison sentence of drug-‐trafficking, the role of former mid-‐
under the Justice and Peace Law (Pizarro and level commanders in the peace process, and
Valencia 2009). Creating similar legislation for recidivism among rank-‐and-‐file combatants.
the FARC would make the involvement of top
leaders in big-‐P politics impossible. However, State control over FARC-dominated
the reintegration program might be well ad-‐ territory
vised to move the question of political reinte-‐
The FARC has largely been located in ar-‐
gration away from party politics and political
eas outside the reach of government forces.
roles for current FARC leaders, and instead fo-‐
What will happen to these spaces from a
cus on ensuring that FARC members are able
governance perspective if the FARC demo-‐
to become politically aware citizens who find
bilizes? Again it is possible to draw some
a place in the existing political spectrum (see
inferences based on the experience of AUC
Söderström 2011). The newly created leftist
demobilization. The AUC, in the locations
Marcha Patriótica movement, which is espe-‐
where it was dominant, provided many state
cially interested in the rural question, may
functions, including protection, to the local
become an important platform for politically
population. It also controlled many of the lo-‐
engaged former FARC combatants.
cal state resources such as education, health,
Nussio and Howe / What if the FARC Demobilizes?
People (PAHD) involves former mid-‐level etc.– goes directly back into the organization.
commanders in preventing the recruitment Looting or any acts to obtain personal wealth
of youth into armed groups and provides are strictly forbidden, even within the higher
them with personal protection (Arias, Prieto, ranks. The personal risk of joining the FARC
and Herrera 2010). Such initial ideas should is much higher than for the paramilitaries or
be extended to the ACR and implemented regular army (Gutiérrez Sanín 2004; Gutiér-‐
more broadly. rez Sanín 2008). Based on this type of organi-‐
zation, we can hypothesize the conditions
Recidivism and post-demobilization under which recidivism is likely to occur. If
armed groups there is a clear intention and commitment to
Will the foot soldiers of the FARC really stop disarm and demobilize amongst the mid and
fighting? Or will they enter into the ranks high-‐level commanders, the rank and file are
of the criminal gangs – the BACRIM – that likely to follow suit due to their history of fol-‐
currently have a presence in 24 of 35 depart-‐ lowing strict orders within a hierarchy. Their
ments in Colombia and which are estimated risk of joining post-‐demobilization armed
to have up to 10,000 members (CNRR 2010; groups is lower than that of ex-‐AUC because
Human Rights Watch 2010)? These groups personal enrichment has neither been a part
commit human rights abuses against civil-‐ of their reason for joining the FARC nor a
ians and use violence as a way to gain territo-‐ part of their soldiering experience. In the
rial control for drugs and other illegal mar-‐ same vein, the vertical organization of the
kets (Granada, Restrepo, and Tobón 2009). FARC makes a potential DDR process less
For demobilized AUC fighters, an estimated vulnerable to dissident groups and remobili-‐
15 per cent have re-‐engaged in some type of zation than in the case of the AUC, which was
illegal activity, often related to the BACRIM a rather network-‐like umbrella organization
(CNRR 2010). A second source of post-‐DDR with strong regional leaders. While mem-‐
violence could be splinter groups that do bers of the FARC may be pre-‐disposed to less
not demobilize and which offer a place for recidivism than the former paramilitaries
combatants who are unwilling to reintegrate considering their organizational history, the
into a legal lifestyle. It is possible that rem-‐ Achilles’ heel will be ensuring meaningful
nant groups from the FARC might constitute political participation and employment for a
an additional BACRIM or may integrate into largely peasant-‐based cadre.
one or several of the existing organizations. The second issue, which affects both rates
Alliances between the BACRIM and the FARC of recidivism and security, is the protection
have been reported repeatedly throughout of individual ex-‐combatants. Former mem-‐
the past years and would provide the neces-‐ bers of the AUC have been disproportion-‐
sary contacts for the period following con-‐ ately targeted by post-‐demobilization armed
flict (International Crisis Group 2009). groups, and their security remains precari-‐
We identify three specific factors relevant ous (Munévar and Nussio 2009; Observato-‐
for recidivism in the FARC process – one re-‐ rio de Procesos de DDR 2010). Ex-‐members
lates to the history and identity of the FARC of the FARC may be sought out by criminal
and the other two are based on lessons organizations because of their particular
learned from the DDR of the AUC. The FARC violent skill sets, connections, or intimate
is a vertically organized structure with very knowledge of valuable illegal markets. Ex-‐
strict codes of conduct. Soldiers sign up for combatants may also be targeted by other
life, they are subject to tough disciplinary members of the community – including ex-‐
measures, and desertion is punishable by paramilitaries and victims – who may seek
death. All wealth accumulated – through violent revenge. However, insecurity related
narco-‐trafficking, kidnapping, extortion, to continued illegal networks rather than re-‐
64 Nussio and Howe / What if the FARC Demobilizes?
venge among individual ex-‐combatants has face resistance and opposition. Political and
been more common in recent years. Earlier social reintegration will continuously re-‐
peace processes with guerrilla groups have open old sores, and remnant armed groups
been accompanied by an upsurge of right-‐ will persist, or new groups will emerge to
wing paramilitary violence (Romero 2003). exploit illegal rents generated from drug-‐
The legal political arm created by the FARC trafficking and extortion.
during the peace process in the 1980s (the Despite these challenges, the chances for
Unión Patriótica) was one of the foremost success are better than for previous demo-‐
victims of such rightist violence. As a con-‐ bilization processes. Most importantly, if
sequence, effective protection mechanisms the negotiations come to a satisfactory end,
for former FARC members must be put into the armed conflict will finally have been
place in order to dissipate their accumulated overcome. This will dramatically reduce the
fears. Research has shown that demobilized number of potential spoilers to the peace
paramilitaries who face violent threats of-‐ agreement, and will also allow for a clearer
ten choose independent security strategies distinction between criminal and political vi-‐
including rejoining armed groups. This deci-‐ olence, a line that has been difficult to draw
sion-‐making tactic stems from high level of in the past. Additionally, foreign govern-‐
distrust in formal institutions. A lack of trust ments (including the US which qualifies the
in legal protection mechanisms thus could FARC as terrorist organization) and interna-‐
jeopardize the success of a potential FARC tional organizations have so far taken a very
demobilization process (Nussio 2011b). positive stance towards the Colombian peace
Third, continuous juridical insecurity for initiative following the official announce-‐
both high-‐ranking and rank-‐and-‐file ex-‐com-‐ ment of President Santos. This is in direct
batants has contributed to remobilization contrast with the rather skeptical position
for former AUC combatants. Breaking their (especially from the United Nations) during
agreement with AUC leaders, the government the peace talks with the AUC.
of Colombia extradited 18 of top AUC com-‐ The DDR process with the FARC will de-‐
manders to the United States on drug charges pend not only on the issues mentioned in
(FIP 2009). An estimated 19,000 rank-‐and-‐ this article but also on broader issues re-‐
file ex-‐combatants have persisted in juridical lated to peacebuilding, violence reduction
limbo for years (Palou and Méndez 2012). strategies, and wider development policies
With the timely presentation of a constitu-‐ (see Rettberg 2012). In fact, DDR will tap its
tional amendment that passed congress in full potential only if embedded in a wider
May 2012 (the ‘Legal Framework for Peace’), peacebuilding framework and if managed
the Juan Manuel Santos administration seems with realistic expectations. However, there
prepared to give the FARC demobilization a are some benefits DDR generates on its
clearer and more stable juridical framework, own. According to a survey conducted by
which may contribute to less recidivism. the FIP, for former combatants, the Colom-‐
bian Reintegration Agency is the most trust-‐
Conclusions ed of all state institutions. DDR is thus not
only a technocratic tool to deal with experts
If the FARC and the government reach an
in violence, it may also have the potential
agreement over the terms for peace in Co-‐
to build trust amongst a significant post-‐
lombia, the DDR process will certainly face
conflict population. Especially for formerly
a rocky road ahead. Disarmament might not
antagonistic insurgents, the creation of in-‐
be complete, and fake recruits are likely to
stitutional trust is crucial for an enduring
appear on the lists of demobilized people.
peace. 5
Economic reintegration of ex-‐combatants
will take time, and related rural reforms will
Nussio and Howe / What if the FARC Demobilizes? 65
Guáqueta, A and Arias, G 2011 ‘Impactos y Paz. Madrid: Centro Internacional de To-‐
De Los Programas De Desmovilización y ledo para la Paz.
Reinserción Sobre La Sostenibilidad De La Massé, F, Negrete, V, Nussio, E and Ugar-
Paz: El Caso De Colombia.’ In La Desmovi- riza, J E 2011 Presencia De Desmovilizados
lización De Los Paramilitares En Colom- e Inseguridad En Las Ciudades. Casos De
bia, ed. Elvira María Restrepo and Bruce %STUDIO 6ILLAVICENCIO -ONTER²A Y "OGOT¦
Bagley. Bogotá: Universidad de los Andes. Cuarto Informe Del Observatorio De DDR
Gutiérrez Sanín, F 2004 ‘Criminal Rebels? y Ley De Justicia y Paz. Madrid: Centro In-‐
A Discussion of Civil War and Criminality ternacional de Toledo para la Paz.
from the Colombian Experience.’ Politics Muggah, R 2006 ‘Emerging from the Shad-‐
3OCIETY 32 (2): 257–285. DOI: http:// ow of War: A Critical Perspective on DDR
dx.doi.org/10.1177/0032329204263074. and Weapons Reduction in the Post-‐
–––(2008) ‘Telling the Difference: Guerrillas conflict Period.’ Contemporary Security
and Paramilitaries in the Colombian War.’ Policy 27 (1): 190–205. DOI: http://dx.doi.
0OLITICS3OCIETY 36 (1): 3–34. DOI: http:// org/10.1080/13523260600603493.
dx.doi.org/10.1177/0032329207312181. Munévar, J. and Nussio, E 2009 Desmovili-
Howe, K 2012 ‘Violent Momentum: Para-‐ zados: Víctimas y Causas De Inseguridad.
military Demobilization, Grey Zones and Estudio De Caso Sobre El Municipio De
the Search for Wealth in Contemporary 4IERRALTA%N%L$EPARTAMENTO$E#·RDOBA
Colombia’. Doctoral thesis, Boston: Tufts Segundo Informe Del Observatorio De
University. DDR y Ley De Justicia y Paz. Bogotá: Cen-‐
Howe, K and Nussio, E Under review. ‘Urban tro Internacional de Toledo para la Paz.
Violence After Demobilization: A Mixed Nussio, E 2011a ‘Learning from Shortcom-‐
Methods Analysis of Post-‐Paramilitary Co-‐ ings: The Demobilisation of Paramilitaries
lombia’ in Colombia.’ *OURNALOF0EACEBUILDINGAND
Howe, K, Sánchez, F and Contreras, C 2010 Development 6 (2): 88–92.
¿El Camino Hacia La Paz o Palos De Ciego? –––2011b ‘How Ex-‐combatants Talk About
Impacto Del Programa De Desmovilización Personal Security. Narratives of Former
Paramilitar En La Violencia Homicida En Paramilitaries in Colombia.’ #ONÃICT3ECU-
Colombia. Documento CEDE 2010-‐43. Bo-‐ RITY$EVELOPMENT 11 (5): 579–606.
gotá: Universidad de los Andes. –––2012 La Vida Después De La Desmovili-
Human Rights Watch 2010 Herederos De ZACI·N 0ERCEPCIONES %MOCIONES Y %STRATE-
,OS 0ARAMILITARES ,A .UEVA #ARA $E ,A gias De Exparamilitares En Colombia. Bo-‐
Violencia En Colombia. Bogotá: Human gotá: Universidad de los Andes.
Rights Watch. Observatorio de Procesos de DDR 2010
International Crisis Group 2009 Ending DDR y Acciones Violentas (2008–2009).
#OLOMBIAjS &!2# #ONÃICT $EALING THE Bogotá: Universidad Nacional de Colombia.
Right Card. Latin America Report No. 30. Palou, J. C. and Méndez, M L 2012 ‘Bal-‐
Bogotá: International Crisis Group. ance De Los Procesos De Desmovilización
Kaplan, O and Nussio, E 2012 ‘Commu-‐ Desarme y Reintegración En Colombia:
nity Counts: The Social Reintegration of 1990-‐2009.’ In Construcción De Paz En
Ex-‐Combatants in Colombia.’ 332. E,I- Colombia, ed. Angelika Rettberg. Bogotá:
brary (August 29). http://ssrn.com/ab-‐ Universidad de los Andes.
stract=2138188. Pizarro, E. and Valencia, L 2009 ,EY$E*US-
Massé, F, Munévar, J, Álvarez Vanegas, E ticia y Paz. Bogotá: Editorial Norma.
and Renán, W 2010 La Evolución De Las Pizarro Leongómez, E 2011 ,AS&ARC
Estructuras Armadas Post-desmovilización: DE GUERRILLA CAMPESINA A M¦QUINA
0ASADO0RESENTEY&UTUROTercer Informe de guerra. Bogotá: Grupo Editorial Norma.
Del Observatorio De DDR y Ley De Justicia
Nussio and Howe / What if the FARC Demobilizes? 67
Restrepo, J and Muggah, R 2009 ‘Colombia’s UNDP 2011 Colombia Rural – Razones Para
Quiet Demobilization. A Security Dividend?’ La Esperanza. Informe Nacional De Desar-‐
In 3ECURITYAND0OST
#ONÃICT2ECONSTRUCTION rollo Humano. Bogotá: UNDP.
Dealing with Fighters in the Aftermath of United Nations 2006 Integrated Disarma-
War, ed. Robert Muggah, 30–46. Abingdon MENT $EMOBILISATION AND 2EINTEGRATION
and New York: Routledge. Standards. New York: UNDDR.
Rettberg, A (ed.) 2012 Construcción De Paz En Verdad Abierta 2012 ‘La Puja Por Los Nego-‐
#OLOMBIA"OGOT¦: Universidad de los Andes. cios Que Dejó ‘40’’, October 26.
Romero, M 2003 Paramilitares y Autodefen- Villarraga, Á 2009 "IBLIOTECA $E ,A 0AZ %L
SAS–2003. Bogotá: Planeta. 0ROCESO$E0AZ%N#OLOMBIA–2002.
Söderström, J 2011 ‘Politics of Affection: Ex-‐ Bogotá: Fundación Cultura Democrática.
Combatants, Political Engagement and Re-‐ de Vries, H and Wiegink, N 2011 ‘Breaking
integration Programs in Liberia’. Doctoral up and Going Home? Contesting Two As-‐
thesis, Uppsala: University of Uppsala. sumptions in the Demobilization and Re-‐
Stockholm Initiative 2006 Stockholm Initi- integration of Former Combatants.’ Inter-
ATIVEON$ISARMAMENT$EMOBILISATIONAND national Peacekeeping 18 (1): 38–51. DOI:
Reintegration. Final Report. Stockholm: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13533312.201
Rolf Tryckeri AB. 1.527506.
Themnér, A 2011 6IOLENCE IN 0OST
#ONÃICT Zyck, S A 2009 ‘Former Combatant Reintegra-‐
3OCIETIES 2EMARGINALIZATION 2EMOBILIZERS tion and Fragmentation in Contemporary
and Relationships. London: Routledge. Afghanistan – Analysis.’ #ONÃICT3ECURITY
Ugarriza, J. E. and Craig, M J 2012 ‘The Rele-‐ Development 9 (1): 111–131. DOI: http://
vance of Ideology to Contemporary Armed dx.doi.org/10.1080/14678800802704945.
Conflicts: A Quantitative Analysis of For-‐
mer Combatants in Colombia.’ *OURNAL OF
#ONÃICT2ESOLUTION online first (July 5).