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Repayment 10yr
LTGR 10%
Hurdle Rate 12%
Discount Rate - Equity 13%
Repayment 10yr
LTGR 11%
Hurdle Rate 12%
Discount Rate - Equity 13%
PATANJALI VALUATION
Case 1 - Company diversifies, leaves swadesi rhetoric
2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E
Sales Growth 58% 91% 119% 100% 70% 45%
EBITDA Margin 20% 23% 20% 20% 19% 19%
Revenue/Capex 9 9 10 20
D&A/Capex 41%
Hurdle Rate - Low Case 12%
Equity Discount rate - Low case 16%
LTGR 10%
Repayment 10yr
Interest Rate 12%
D&A/Capex 41%
Hurdle Rate - Low Case 12%
Equity Discount rate - Low case 16%
LTGR 10%
Repayment 10yr
Interest Rate 12%
2020E 2021E Britannia 2014 2015 2016
10% 10% Sales Growth 0% 0% 0%
17% 17% EBITDA Margin 0% 0% 0%
1% 1% D&A as % asset 0% 0% 0%
16% 16% Asset Growth 0% 0% 0%
5% 5% Capex/asset 0% 0% 0%
Repayment 10yr
LTGR 10%
Hurdle Rate 12%
Discount Rate - Equity 13%
Repayment 10yr
LTGR 11%
Hurdle Rate 13%
Discount Rate - Equity 14%
D&A/Capex 41%
Hurdle Rate - High Case 15%
Equity Discount rate - Low case 17%
LTGR 10%
Repayment 10yr
Interest Rate 12%
Share price
As on 31-12-2007 Share price Revenue LTGR
DCF
Dabur 114 218 12%
Britannia 1475 4497 15%
Nestle 1500 11%
HUL 214 4%
P&G 784 3%
Industry Average 11%
Britannia
2007 2008 2009
Total Income 2,231 2,621 3,146
EBITDA 160 268 297
PBT 116 218 196
PAT 105.13 177.44 151.48
ROA 17% 14% 12%
Close price 1251 1300 1390
No. of shares 2 2 2
Market Cap 2989 3102 3316
EPS 71 57
P/E 33 18 25
30650 2016 2017E 2018E
As on 28 Apr 2017
Equity Mkt P/E (ad P/E DCF (ad
P/E DCF WACC
Value (Mkt) capitalized) capitalized
50377 1x 25 x 1x 17%
43517 1x 35 x 5x 12%
Revenue Tot. Price return - FV/EBITDA DCF FV/EBITDA Equity Val / P/BV DCF
LTGR 10 yr EBITDA
#DIV/0! 10% 1x 34 x 33 x 0x
#DIV/0! 8% 0x 35 x 35 x 0x
#DIV/0! 17% 32 x 33 x
#DIV/0! 15% 42 x 42 x
#DIV/0! 24% 38 x 40 x
#DIV/0! 15% 1x 35 x 35 x
tch mkt val Britannia - 10 years back Britannia - to match mkt val
13% Discount Rate 13% Discount Rate
10% Terminal growth rate 11% Terminal growt
FCF Years FCF Years
307 2007 62 2007
297 2008 155 2008
301 2009 228 2009
320 2010 317 2010
331 2011 420 2011
305 2012 530 2012
8160 Terminal value 15972 Terminal value
10029 Fair Value 17114 Fair Value
10029 Mkt Cap 31/12/07 3659 Mkt Cap 31/12
114 Fair Value / share 7164 Fair Value / sh
114 Stock price 31/12/07 1475 Stock price 31
39 Fair P/E Multiple 105 Fair P/E Multip
39 Mkt P/E 33 Mkt P/E
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
3,390 4,078 5,305 6,169 7,075 7,827
623 774 890 983 1159 1316
601 708 791 953 1136 1319
501 569 645 763 914 1066
24% 14% 14% 15% 15% 16%
160 96 106 137 179 266
87 174 174 174 174 176
13921 16635 18535 23888 31183 46736
6 3 4 4 5 6
28 29 29 31 34 44
As on 31 Dec 2007
Firm Value Firm Value
Equity Value (DCF) Equity Value (Mkt) P/E DCF
(DCF) (Mkt)
39049 10029 18943 9930 64 x
17114 3659 10742 3525 105 x
P/E DCF Mkt P/BV Mkt P/E Mkt P/E (ad capitalized) Price /
Sales
1x 18 x 39.6 x 25.2 x 6.0 x
1x 26 x 51.4 x 35.2 x 5.4 x
21 x 64.4 x 53.8 x 7.0 x
55 x 45.1 x 32.1 x 6.5 x
16 x 51.6 x 48.9 x 9.6 x
21 x 51.4 x 35.2 x 6.5 x
21 x 39 x 56% 7% 4%
6x 33 x 54% 8% 12%
35 x 35 x -129% 14%
33 x 24 x -82% 8% 16%
9x 28 x 120% 8% 11%
21 x 33 x 54% 8% 12%
2016
8,046
1230
1198
806.11
23%
2636
12
31627
63
42
ROCE WACC DDM Beta Hurdle (WC-Cash) /
Rate CL
33% 16.6% 15% 1.20 12% 24%
81% 12.2% 25% 0.66 12% 0%
38% 6.7% 2% -0.03 47%
95% 3.9% 35% -0.39 -26%
40% 4.5% 8% -0.31 60%
40% 7% 15% -0.03 12% 24%
* From Swiss exchange. Currency actually appreciated, $ return accounts for that
when measured from high P/Es
4/28/2017
Britannia P/E >30x 30-Apr-07
Stock return Sensex return Ann. Return Ann. Return
Date P/E Till date Till Date On the stock On the index
3/29/2012 37 x 540% 75% 43% 12%
9/30/2011 31 x 673% 82% 44% 11%
6/30/2011 31 x 660% 59% 41% 8%
3/31/2011 36 x 879% 54% 45% 7%
12/31/2010 40 x 785% 46% 40% 6%
9/30/2010 43 x 736% 49% 37% 6%
Nestle Unilever Colgate P&G USD/INR USD/CHR
6702 935 1034 7368 0.02 1.01
1008 199 172 774 0.02 0.83
Date 28-Apr-17
DABUR INDIA
In Crs
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Revenue 2,259 2,361 2,805 3,390 4,078
Growth
EBITDA 375 404 466 623 774
EBITDA Margin
D&A <c> 22 26 27 32 68
D&A as % asset
EBIT
EBIT*(1-tax) <a>
EBT
EBT*(1-tax) <d>
Capex <b> 27 125 166 160 931
Asset 1122 1481 1889 2076 3944
Asset growth
Capex/asset
Debt opening
12% Interest
Repayment <e>
New debt issue <f>
Debt Closing
Debt 790
Cash -220
Minority 22
Equity Value- Book 2872
Asset 4455
P/BV - DCF 0
P/BV - Mkt 18
BRITANNIA
In Crs
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Revenue 2,231 2,621 3,146 3,404 4,272
Growth
EBITDA 160 268 297 166 280
EBITDA Margin
D&A <c> 25 29 34 38 45
D&A as % asset
EBIT
34% EBIT*(1-tax) <a>
EBT
EBT*(1-tax) <d>
Capex <b> 66 43 82 68
Asset 620 1232 1287 1352 1505
Asset growth
Capex/asset
Debt opening
12% Interest
Repayment <e>
New debt issue <f>
Debt Closing
NESTLE
In Crs
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Revenue 3,504 4,324 5,129 6,255 7,491
Growth
EBITDA 687 830 992 1236 1554
EBITDA Margin 20% 19% 19% 20% 21%
Capex 255 446 1555
Asset
Asset growth
Capex/asset
EBITDA - Capex 687 830 737 790 -1
Overwrite 1 13%
Discount Rate 13% 7%
Discount Factor
Growth Rate
Discounted Cash Flows
Terminal Value
Firm Value - DCF
Firm Value - Mkt 63775
HUL
In Crs
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Revenue 14,757 14,757 20,239 17,523 19,735
Growth
EBITDA
EBITDA Margin
Capex
Asset
Asset growth
Capex/asset
EBITDA - Capex 0 0 0 0 0
Overwrite 1 13%
Discount Rate 13% 4%
Discount Factor
Growth Rate
Discounted Cash Flows
Terminal Value
Firm Value - DCF
Firm Value - Mkt 199478
P&G
In Crs
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Revenue 538 642 772 902 1,002
Growth
EBITDA
EBITDA Margin
Capex
Asset
Asset growth
Capex/asset
EBITDA - Capex 0 0 0 0 0
Overwrite 1 13%
Discount Rate 13% 5%
Discount Factor
Growth Rate
Discounted Cash Flows
Terminal Value
Firm Value - DCF
Firm Value - Mkt 23166
66 73 54 66 73 0 0 0
1447 0 0 0
1116 0 0 0
1352 -85 -93 -102
1043 -66 -72 -79
233 241 215 267 217 0 0 0
4646 5254 5970 6872 7120 7120 7120 7120
972 0 0 0
820 0 0 0
2 3 3 3
396 454 520 597
972 0 0 0
820 0 0 0
0 1 2 3
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E
5,033 5,671 6,342 7,264 8,046 8,046 8,046 8,046
47 57 63 117 87 0 0 0
1143 0 0 0
757 0 0 0
1128 -14 -15 -16
747 -9 -10 -11
171 225 110 118 263 0 0 0
1696 1707 1877 2483 3457 3457 3457 3457
581 0 0 0
559 0 0 0
20 20 20 20
240 240 240 240
581 0 0 0
559 0 0 0
0 1 2 3
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E
8,335 9,101 9,855 8,175 9,224 9,224 9,224 9,224
0 1 2 3
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E
22,116 25,810 28,019 30,805 31,061 31,061 31,061 31,061
0 0 0
0 0 0
4805 0 0 0
0 1 2 3
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E
1,297 1,686 2,050 2,333 2,484 2,484 2,484 2,484
0 0 0
0 0 0
605 0 0 0
4 5 50969
2020E 2021E Discount Rate
8,454 8,454 972 10% 11% 12% 13%
6%
Growth
0 0 8%
10% #DIV/0!
0 0 11% #DIV/0!
12% #DIV/0!
0 0
0 0
-111 -122
-86 -94
0 0
7120 7120
927 1013
111 122
93 101
179 195
1013 1107
0 0
0 0
4 4
685 786
0.6 0.6
0.6 0.5
0 0
0
0 0
0
4 5 43559
2020E 2021E Discount Rate
8,046 8,046 581 10% 11% 12% 13%
6%
Growth
0 0 8%
10% #DIV/0!
0 0 11% #DIV/0!
12% #DIV/0!
0 0
0 0
-17 -19
-11 -12
0 0
3457 3457
144 155
17 19
14 16
26 28
155 167
0 0
0 0
20 20
240 240
0.6 0.6
0.6 0.5
0 0
0
0 0
0
4 5
2020E 2021E
9,224 9,224
1,940 1,940
21% 21%
0 0
0 0
1940 1940
0.6 0.6
1233 1101
14922
4 5
2020E 2021E
31,061 31,061
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0.6 0.6
0 0
0
4 5
2020E 2021E
2,484 2,484
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0.6 0.6
0 0
0
14%
14%
As of 19 Apr 2017
In Crs
Sector Companies P/E CAPEX Revenue
2016 2015 2016 2015
FMCG- India Dabur 40 217 267 8454 7827
FMCG- India Britannia 51 263 118 8046 7264
FMCG- India Nestle 64 207 151 9224 8175
FMCG- India HUL 45 824 606 31061 30805
FMCG- India P&G 52 53 138 2484 2334
FMCG Median 51 217 151 8454 7827
IT TCS 17
IT Infosys 15
IT Wipro 14
IT HCL 14
IT Tech Mahindra 13
IT Oracle 25
IT L&T Infotech 13
IT Median 14
P/E
Sun Pharma 17
Lupin 19
Aurobindo 17
Cadila 38
Dr. Reddy's 34
Pharma Median 19
CA/CL
Sun Pharma 3.9
Lupin 2.6
Aurobindo 2.6
Cadila 2.0
Dr. Reddy's 2.1
Pharma Median 2.6
Rev/Capex (Rev-COGS(AR+AP)/APTax Rate
2016 2015 -AR+AP) / COGS
39.0 29.3 132% 39% 23%
30.6 61.7 72% 77% 34%
44.6 54.2 185% 89% 45%
37.7 50.8 124% 78% 30%
47.2 17.0 191% 54% 34%
39.0 50.8 77% 34%
23%
28%
22%
20%
21%
37%
20%
22%
26%
38%
30%
44%
28%
30%
Products
Growth Revenue
Name Content Current MRP Competitor Price Rate share
INR Price
Honey 250 gms 70 Dabur 120
Chyawanprash 1000 gms 250 Dabur 333
Zandu Sona Chandi 261
Toothpaste 100 gms 40
Shampoo 200 ml 75
Ghee 1000 gms 450 Amul 390 32.50%
Sagar 382
Govardhan 415
Edible Oil 1000 gms 142 Fortune 149
Sundrop 170
Dhara 153
Balm 1000 gms 1600 Amrutanjan 2667
Zandu 3200
Vicks 2400
Detergents
Bucket wash 1000 gms 45 Wheel 46
Rin 76
Machine wash 1000 gms 190 Henko 185
Surf Excel 215
Ariel Matic 227
http://www.indiainfoline.com/article/news-top-story/make-in-india-how-patanjali-is-brewing-a-storm-in-fmcg-sec
PAL maintains high profit margins on several of its products, thanks to the phenomenally low overheads compared to the compe
Neither does PAL hire management professionals with fat pay checks, nor did it spend much on distribution until recently, opera
through exclusive shops.
rewing-a-storm-in-fmcg-sector-116011300291_1.html
erheads compared to the competition.
distribution until recently, operating solely
4-Oct-16 Patanjali Ayurved strikes maiden deal, acquires RH Agro's rice mill for Rs. 70Cr mn
22-Jun-16 Patanjali Ayurved is planning to raise Rs 1,000 crore in project loans
26-Apr-16 ShudhBuy.com joins hands with Patanjali
25-Feb-16 Maharashtra allots over 600 acres to Baba Ramdev’s Patanjali. It will invest over INR 2,000 crore for i
21-Mar-16 Patanjali plans to open 4-5 new food parks
21-Mar-16 assigned a BWR AA-/A1+ rating by ratings agency Brickwork Ratings on Monday for its bank loans of
12-Feb-16 Nestle to add more Maggi brands to compete with Patanjali. Patanjali has infact endorsed Maggi be
1-Nov-15 Food Safety and Standards Authority of India (FSSAI) had issued a notice to Patanjali Ayurved and Ak
9-Oct-15 Future Group rallies on tie-up Patanjali Group
Tuhin Harit:
Though Patanjali paid 10 per cent margin against a rival brand’s 20 per cent, the modern retailer was able to sell Rs 3 lakh worth of Dant K
http://www.vccircle.com/
news/fmcg/2016/02/19/
role-small-stores-
patanjalis-expanding-
footprint
vest over INR 2,000 crore for its proposed ventures
sell Rs 3 lakh worth of Dant Kanti toothpastes against Rs 1 lakh worth of toothpastes of the latter, says Pittie.