Karel Weather Station Tual

The average and maximum monthly rainfall and humidity data for 10 years at Karel is shown in
Tables below:

2010
Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Max of RR (mm/day) 51 88 41 45 47 51 34 43 57 47 57 47
Average of RR (mm/day) 10.96 5.96 8.85 8.59 5.46 7.85 5.85 7.50 9.44 6.48 6.05 10.48
Max of RH_avg (%) 94 94 96 95 93 92 93 96 96 96 93 94
Average of RH_avg (%) 85.96 85.08 87.44 86.26 86.82 85.35 85.70 86.17 86.76 85.89 86.41 87.66

2011
Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Max of RR (mm/day) 44 38 37 37 40 11 43 3 14 23 44 38
Average of RR (mm/day) 6.93 6.77 11.56 7.42 7.00 1.16 2.71 0.21 0.64 3.00 6.07 10.82
Max of RH_avg (%) 95 92 96 93 93 92 91 84 93 91 95 95
Average of RH_avg (%) 86.41 85.36 86.84 87.75 84.73 81.84 82.16 77.00 81.75 82.54 85.14 87.46

2012
Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Max of RR (mm/day) 42 31 40 41 36 32 16 4 24 3 34 51
Average of RR (mm/day) 7.57 10.90 8.15 4.38 11.00 4.14 2.70 0.17 1.33 0.29 2.93 8.80
Max of RH_avg (%) 93 93 94 92 95 93 95 84 91 85 91 95
Average of RH_avg (%) 87.40 87.14 86.37 82.48 87.78 83.62 84.00 79.73 82.50 77.32 80.66 87.56

2013
Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Max of RR (mm/day) 38 27.5 21 28.2 26 21 0          
Average of RR (mm/day) 9.73 5.04 3.52 2.84 4.39 2.44 0.00          
Max of RH_avg (%) 96 94 91 93 96 92 77          
Average of RH_avg (%) 87.13 86.68 84.85 83.92 86.83 85.40 74.50          

2014
Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Max of RR (mm/day) 61 14 43.2 13.7 29 43 7.9 12.9 14.2 9.8 9.2 37.4
Average of RR (mm/day) 13.99 2.46 6.75 2.89 5.27 5.51 0.81 1.00 0.99 0.43 1.19 7.53
Max of RH_avg (%) 95 91 95 96 88 93 85 84 83 86 87 93
Average of RH_avg (%) 86.08 82.28 84.86 88.11 83.91 85.75 80.20 79.94 78.16 77.84 81.06 89.36

2015
Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Max of RR (mm/day) 37.2 19.5 32.3   2 30 2.2   0   17 34.2
Average of RR (mm/day) 10.20 9.81 10.07   0.40 9.73 0.73   0.00   1.21 6.35
Max of RH_avg (%) 94 94 90   96 95 92       94 94
Average of RH_avg (%) 87.48 86.57 86.89   91.67 92.17 91.00       90.33 88.38

2016
Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Max of RR (mm/day) 13.5 37.2 46.2 19.5 16.8 8.5 23 11.5 10.3 10.2 18.2 29
Average of RR (mm/day) 2.02 8.35 5.97 4.78 2.42 1.75 3.04 1.36 2.06 1.93 2.72 7.01
 Max of RH_avg (%) 95 98 97 96 95 95 90 93 91 93 95 94
Average of RH_avg (%) 88.26 92.74 91.50 92.19 87.08 85.13 82.61 84.07 85.10 84.36 85.71 89.25

2017
Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Max of RR (mm/day) 98 31.6 40 25 25 29.6 12.2 3 10.7 15.3   37.2
Average of RR (mm/day) 10.99 8.49 9.09 4.52 7.08 4.79 2.96 0.58 1.45 1.61   6.68
Max of RH_avg (%) 97 98 98 97 95 91 90 92 90 91   98
Average of RH_avg (%) 90.92 91.17 92.39 89.95 86.15 86.17 85.63 80.62 82.67 83.50   89.88

2018
Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Max of RR (mm/day) 33.2 41 18 25.5   31 5.5 7.5 10.3 1.6 41 51
Average of RR (mm/day) 6.42 8.76 5.37 4.85   4.34 0.83 0.68 0.71 0.06 3.93 9.30
Max of RH_avg (%) 98 98 95 99   95 88 88 86 84 98 98
Average of RH_avg (%) 89.38 88.35 88.29 89.38   83.42 81.44 80.74 77.95 79.78 84.61 89.48

2019
Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Max of RR (mm/day) 34.5 24 47 15 12 15.3 4.5 3.2 2 14 12 23.5
Average of RR (mm/day) 13.86 6.95 5.65 3.57 2.36 3.70 0.60 0.30 0.25 1.30 1.21 3.70
Max of RH_avg (%) 97 96 94 95 97 94 88 90 87 95 89 94
Average of RH_avg (%) 91.00 88.63 88.65 86.48 87.81 86.33 79.38 81.75 80.93 83.38 82.32 87.35

2020
Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Max of RR (mm/day) 20.7 31 29 23.5 19.5 27.5 9 24.4 9.5 14.5 30.5 30.5
Average of RR (mm/day) 5.85 8.39 4.55 7.86 4.48 5.42 2.00 2.57 2.05 2.16 4.91 8.58
Max of RH_avg (%) 98 99 96 96 99 95 92 97 90 97 96 96
Average of RH_avg (%) 90.31 91.95 91.04 91.23 89.24 87.00 86.78 86.38 85.69 85.88 88.70 91.04

2021
Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Max of RR (mm/day) 34 21 50 18.5 23.5 51 30 28.5 40 23.5 28.5 61
Average of RR (mm/day) 11.47 8.27 7.49 4.23 5.39 4.97 7.31 4.13 3.88 3.40 6.44 13.84
Max of RH_avg (%) 99 96 97 95 95 96 96 94 94 98 96 98
Average of RH_avg (%) 92.39 91.36 91.59 89.00 86.95 88.11 88.93 86.14 86.93 88.35 90.52 91.83

2022
Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Max of RR (mm/day) 26.5 50 34 31 25 34.5            
Average of RR (mm/day) 5.80 9.28 6.70 4.79 4.04 9.04            
Max of RH_avg (%) 98 98 98 97 96 96            
Average of RH_avg (%) 90.58 90.58 90.67 90.50 88.68 90.04            

Seasonal Rainfall Pattern

Indonesia is affected by monsoon season with wet season usually occurs in October to March and
dry season in April to September. The average total monthly rainfall for 10 years is shown below:

Rainfall Humidity
350 90

300 88
250
86
R (mm/month)

Humidity (%)
200
84
150
82
100

50 80

0 78
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Month

The rainfall pattern shows that dry season peak occurred in September and rainy season peak
occurred in January. The total rainy day for each month and year is shown below:

Total Rainy Day

Years JA FE MA AP MA JU JU AU SE OC NO DE All Year
N B R R Y N L G P T V C
2010 24 11 23 17 18 19 20 21 16 15 16 26 226
2011 19 14 23 17 21 10 13 4 4 11 16 26 178
2012 19 18 20 10 17 11 11 2 10 7 9 19 153
2013 21 12 16 9 16 16 0           90
2014 19 12 13 10 15 17 4 6 3 1 8 23 131
2015 24 19 23   2 8 1   0   3 18 98
2016 12 23 17 23 10 14 12 12 10 14 12 25 184
2017 24 23 22 16 18 18 17 8 8 9   20 183
2018 19 20 21 17   13 9 5 4 2 14 22 146
2019 26 23 19 16 17 19 6 5 5 5 5 12 158
2020 13 19 14 19 15 16 14 9 9 9 12 24 173
2021 23 22 20 12 21 19 25 15 17 11 21 26 232
Averag
e 20 18 19 15 15 15 11 9 8 8 12 22 163

Extreme Rainfall

The total rainfall for one year and maximum rainfall for each year is shown below:
 Total Rainfall Max R24

3500 100
90
3000
80
Total Rainfall (mm/years)

2500

Max R24 (mm/day)

70

2000 60
50
1500 40
1000 30
20
500
10
0 0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Month

It shows the wettest year in 12 years occurred in 2010 and the driest season occurred In 2013.
Extreme rainfall is calculated using the block maxima approach. The distribution frequency fit test is
performed using 3 types of distribution: Largest Extreme Value (LEV), Lognormal, and Log Pearson III.
The distribution fit criteria are pvalue > 5% for 95% CI and the smallest Anderson Darling Test for
normality test. The results of distribution frequency test are shown below:
Based on fit criteria, the rainfall distribution is the Largest Extreme Value (LEV). Using the fitted
parameter, the Empirical Cumulative Distribution Function is plotted below:
The extreme rainfall for design obtained from ECDF below:

RT % R24
% ECDF
(years) Excdn (mm/day)
2 50 50 66
2.5 60 40 69
5 80 20 78
10 90 10 85
20 95 5 92
25 96 4 94
50 98 2 100
100 99 1 105
200 99.5 0.5 111