From Ocean to Port:

Will Things Get Worse Before They Get Better?

Alan Murphy
CEO and Founder March 1st, 2022
Sea-Intelligence TPM22
© Sea-Intelligence info@sea-intelligence.com TPM22 – March 2022 1
 Sea-Intelligence

Container Shipping Analysts & Supply Chain Advisors

- Founded January 6th, 2011
- Fully independent, private company with no interests from brokers, banks, or others.
- 12 Analysts, Developers & Consultants in Copenhagen, Hong Kong, and Switzerland.
- 6-person Exec Team with 150+ years of experience in Container Shipping
Core values: Major Milestones:
- 1,500+ Research & Analysis articles published since March 2011
- Integrity
- 10,000+ Industry Press citations (Lloyd’s List, JOC, Splash247, etc.)
- Methodology - Regular contributor of Lloyd’s List’s “Between the Lines” Column
- World’s most comprehensive database on Carrier Reliability
- Assumptions
- Curriculum provider at the World Maritime University
- Data Quality - Curriculum provider at the Blue MBA at Copenhagen Business School

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 Sea-Intelligence team @ TPM22

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 Topics to be covered

1) How did we get here?

2) Are things getting better or worse?
3) How long to get back to normal?

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 How did we get here?

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 NAM is the main driver of any global demand

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 The US pandemic shift from services to durable goods

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 Durables growth is very high, as coming from lower base

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 NAM Volumes clearly driven by durables import

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 NAM Volumes clearly driven by durables import

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 This volume boom clogged up Ports and Hinterlands

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 Congestion and vessel delays are soaking up supply

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 Are things getting better or worse?

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 NAM Volumes, Vessels, and lost capacity not getting better

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 Only Asia congestion improving, NAM/EUR horrendous

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 Worst ever reliability, vessel delays, blank sailings, and transit time

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 SPOT rates - NOT incl. space/eq. fees of $500 - 10,500

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 CONTRACT rates - NOT incl. space/eq. fees of $500 - 10,500

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 How long to get back to normal?

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 Most comparable situation is the 2015 USWC port labour dispute

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 We isolate 2015 dispute, and see how long to revert to normal

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 How fast have rates come down in the past?

1 4
2 3

5
2
1
4
3
Red: Periods of sustained rate declines 5
Green: Periods of sustained rate increases

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 What happens if we apply these scenarios to now?

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 THANK YOU!
https://sea-intelligence.com/ https://www.linkedin.com/company/sea-intelligence/

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