28-Jul-23 Fryer's Feedgrain Report

CORN
Futures CBOT (¢) CM E Bl. Sea $ M atif (€) S. Africa White Dec Dalian Sep
Sep Dec M ar Sep Dec Aug Zar $ CNY ¢/bu
Previous 540.25 548.25 559.00 208.00 208.75 248.25 3,821 214.3 2,695 957
Close Jul 27 533.25 542.25 553.75 209.75 210.50 249.75 3,717 208.5 2,709 962
Change -7.00 -6.00 -5.25 1.75 1.75 1.50 -104 -5.8 14.0 5.0
SX3/CZ3 2.51 €/$: 1.0969 $/ZAR 17.84 $/CNY 7.15

Fob ($) US 2 YC Gulf Argentine up-river Brazil Cargo Ukraine pmx C&F Asia Sep-Oct
prem $/mt prem $/mt prem $/mt prem $/mt US 280
Aug 95 247 20 218 30 222 - - S. Hem 267
Sep 75 239 25 220 28 221 - - Ukraine -
Oct 75 243 48 232 60 237 - - CIF Spanmed 246
Nov 85 247 - - 13 - - - Danube (€/t) 191
Peso 272.95 Real 4.743 UAH 36.93

Crops/Weather: The US has scattered showers in the Central and N Plains, but the rest of
the country stays dry with above/much above normal temperatures everywhere. Rain continues
over northern and E Europe, E Ukraine is also wet, but S Europe and the Balkans are dry
and hot. China has improved rains except in the far north.
Trade: Export sales were within expectations at 314kt old crop and 336kt new crop. Algeria
is said to have bought 120kt Argentine/Brazilian corn at $248.50/tonne C&F for August
shipment. Korea are in for 138kt Oct-Nov.
Markets: CBOT corn fell 7c/bu and is now unchanged for the week after trading as much as
37c/bu above current levels. The Sep-Dec spread is trading at contract lows and a 9.5c/bu
carry, despite a strong ethanol grind, firm interior cash markets and export sales that
maintain the USDA forecasts (see page 2). 59% of US corn is in drought (55% last week) 23%
in severe drought (21%).
BAGE put the Argentina corn harvest at 68.4% complete with an unchanged crop estimate of
34MMT against the USDA also at 34MMT. Fob premiums in both Brazil and Argentina are
steady, with no suggestions yet of any significant price pressure from either the expand-
ing Brazilian harvest or the corn-dollar program in Argentina. The Brazilian Real contin-
ues to sit near 12-month highs, but the blue peso is collapsing (even by its standards) at
548 today.
Jo’burg is looking set to close out the week near its lows and down nearly 3% for the
week. Dalian remains in a holding pattern and is unchanged for the week. An overview of
the recent trajectory of China’s feed grain imports is on page 2.
Matif corn closed steady, as the EU Commission lowered the EU corn crop by 700kt to 63
Mmt, but still well above last year’s 53 Mmt. New crop CVB corn is still quoted at +80CZ,
there is no Ukraine market.
Outlook: Ukraine has corn to sell, but how and when that gets to market is the longer term
question. Short term, the market is trading headlines and US forecasts. The absence of
detrimental headlines and a better US forecast has flat prices and spreads back trending
lower with the overnights down 2-5c/bu.

FEED BARLEY
Fob US$ France German Baltic Balkan Black Sea W Aus Argentina C&F Saudi US DDG's
(CVB) (Russia) BB/Neco fob NOLA
Aug 258 245 243 221 180 230 - 220 272
Sep 259 246 244 221 182 230 - 222 272
Oct 260 247 245 225 185 230 - 225 270
Nov 261 248 246 228 190 - - 230 270

Crops/Weather: Canada still has showers in the north, but the south remains dry and warm,
with time now running out for any improvement in the crop. Rain continues to cover the
northern half of Europe, Argentina remains entirely dry with soil moisture already severe-
ly lacking, Australia has added some showers into the east.
Markets: The EU lowered the Barley crop 1 Mmt to 48.7 Mmt against 51.8MMT last season. CVB
is reported offered meanwhile at –50U putting Ci&F Med in the €220’s. Australian markets
are quiet. We provide an overview of Chinese feed grain import trends on page 2.

fryer@fryer.ch +41 79 301 0088 rory@black-silo.com +353 86 150 3440

Information is from sources believed reliable but may be incomplete and can't be guaranteed. Opinions may change without notice. Reproduction/transmission prohibited.
 CBOT Corn Sep-Dec calendar spread (USc/bu)
40

30

20
CBOT corn spreads have been weakening
10 consistently and are following seasonal
patterns lower. Generally, weak spreads are
0 not the most bullish indicators in the world.

-10

-20
Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

China monthly feed grain imports (MMT)

7

6 Chinese feed grain imports have been con-

sistently around 3MMT per month for the
5
past 6 months. The trade will look closely at
changes to this trajectory. They tend to be
4
quite consistent buyers of barley but the big
3 swing is corn and sorghum that can blow hot
and cold.
2

0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Corn Sorghum DDG Barley Source of data: Chinese customs

Fund positions Fund positions Fund positions

CBOT Wheat CBOT Corn CBOT Soybeans CBOT Soymeal CBOT Soyoil
Date Daily change CFTC Date Daily change CFTC Date Daily change CFTC Daily change CFTC Daily change CFTC
29/06/2023 -1,500 29/06/2023 -9,500 29/06/2023 5,000 1,500 -1,000
30/06/2023 -6,000 30/06/2023 -26,000 30/06/2023 21,000 7,000 14,500
03/07/2023 -2,500 -56,399 03/07/2023 500 -18,209 03/07/2023 8,500 90,193 500 52,590 5,000 45,235
05/07/2023 15,000 05/07/2023 1,500 05/07/2023 2,000 -1,000 4,500
06/07/2023 -6,000 06/07/2023 8,000 06/07/2023 -6,500 -1,000 -8,000
07/07/2023 -3,000 07/07/2023 -7,000 07/07/2023 -7,000 -3,000 -2,500
10/07/2023 -1,000 10/07/2023 4,500 10/07/2023 10,000 2,000 8,000
11/07/2023 5,500 -54,409 11/07/2023 1,000 -63,052 11/07/2023 5,500 84,244 4,000 54,013 -2,000 51,338
12/07/2023 -9,000 12/07/2023 -10,500 12/07/2023 -10,000 -4,000 -1,000
13/07/2023 3,500 13/07/2023 10,000 13/07/2023 15,000 5,000 5,000
14/07/2023 7,500 14/07/2023 10,500 14/07/2023 500 500 -2,000
17/07/2023 -2,500 17/07/2023 -6,500 17/07/2023 4,500 3,500 -2,000
18/07/2023 5,500 -57,009 18/07/2023 20,000 -46,926 18/07/2023 9,500 94,970 4,000 57,801 -3,500 46,702
19/07/2023 15,500 19/07/2023 12,000 19/07/2023 3,000 -1,000 5,000
20/07/2023 -1,500 20/07/2023 -6,000 20/07/2023 -2,500 -3,000 4,500
21/07/2023 -11,000 21/07/2023 -7,500 21/07/2023 -1,000 2,000 2,000
24/07/2023 21,500 24/07/2023 24,000 24/07/2023 9,500 3,500 9,000
25/07/2023 2,500 25/07/2023 -3,000 25/07/2023 -2,500 4,000 -1,000
26/07/2023 -12,500 26/07/2023 -13,500 26/07/2023 4,000 4,500 -3,500
27/07/2023 -7,000 27/07/2023 -10,000 27/07/2023 -13,500 -2,500 -3,500
Current est. 7,500 -49,509 -4,000 -50,926 -3,000 91,970 7,500 65,301 12,500 59,202
Last 20 days All time Last 20 days All time Last 20 days All time Last 20 days All time Last 20 days All time
Percentile 24% Percentile 24% Percentile 58% 81% 77%
1 yr ago -14,527 1 yr ago 120,788 1 yr ago 85,962 72,238 14,526
Max 21,500 73,662 Max 24,000 429,189 Max 21,000 240,937 7,000 155,797 14,500 125,722
Min -12,500 -171,269 Min -26,000 -322,215 Min -13,500 -171,141 -4,000 -75,873 -8,000 -110,846
Average 650 -17,764 Average -375 101,391 Average 2,750 69,178 1,325 33,018 1,375 22,842
Pattern Pattern Pattern