MORNING GRAIN COMMENTS

Matt Zeller | matt.zeller@stonex.com |Friday, June 11, 2021

CURRENT TREND: Lower REASON: Soybeans ease on increased U.S. carryout, strong South American output
CFTC REPORTS @ 2:30 PM
MORNING TRIVIA: On this day in 1962, Frank Morris, John Anglin, and Clarence Anglin became the only people to ever successfully flee ____...
MARKET HEADLINES NIGHT SESSION (to 7:00 AM): Grain Volume: 168,030
• Quick Editorial: soybeans are set to post a fourth straight lower high after Symbol High Low Last Chg Vol
Monday’s top, sinking into chart support and with the fundamental aid of CN1 703.00 686.25 687.50 -11.50 20,376
slightly-increased USDA carryouts and solid Brazilian production this season.
• South Korea’s MFG bought around 65k tonnes of optional-origin feed wheat CU1 641.50 621.75 623.50 -14.75 7,352
this morning at $313/tonne cost plus freight, for July or August shipment. CZ1 619.75 598.75 600.50 -16.00 27,126
• FranceAgriMer reported a one-point increase in French soft wheat ratings this WN1 688.00 676.25 677.00 -6.75 10,687
week, to 81% g/ex, up from 56% last year; corn was steady at 91% g/ex.
• The B.A. Exchange raised ‘20/21 Argentine corn production from 46 to 48 KWN1 642.75 630.75 631.25 -9.00 3,372
MMT due to better-than-expected late yields, with 38% of the crop harvested. SN1 1551.25 1527.75 1528.75 -15.25 16,368
• Mexico’s top farm lobby still has not received any guarantee that the coun- 1,621
try’s GMO corn ban will not apply to imported corn; the CNA lobby says the SU1 1473.50 1446.25 1446.75 -21.50
government is already holding up eight pending import permits for GMO SX1 1464.25 1435.75 1436.50 -23.00 11,787
corn, along with permits for other farm products including glyphosate. They
stated that it would be impossible to substitute current levels of GMO corn SMN1 383.90 379.20 379.50 -2.10 6,864
with non-GMO shipments or increased domestic output levels. The U.S. ex- BON1 70.60 68.25 68.28 -2.18 13,219
ports around 16 MMT of corn per year to Mexico, nearly all of it GMO.
• Brazil’s CONAB cut their official 2020/21 corn production estimate from CLN1 70.80 69.68 70.43 +0.14 100,584
106.4 to 96.4 MMT this month, with second-crop output down from 79.8 to DXY 90.31 89.96 90.31 +0.23 3,521
just under 70 MMT. Soybean output rose from 135.4 to 135.9 million tonnes, FUNDAMENTAL UPDATE
with wheat output seen at 6.9 MMT for 2021, up from 6.2 MMT last season. New-crop (2021/22) corn export sales basically slowed to a
• ‘20/21 Export Sales (000 tonnes): This Week / Estimates / Last Week crawl this week at just 26.4k tonnes, or just over a million
Corn: 189.6 / 100-500 / 531.1 Beans: 15.6 / -(100)-200 / 17.8 bushels. Cumulative new-crop sales still stand at more than
Meal: 136.3 / 100-300 / 217.7 Oil: 3.1 / -(10)-16 / 1.0 15 MMT (almost 600 mln bu), massively ahead of any oth-
• ‘21/22 Export Sales (000 tonnes): This Week / Estimates / Last Week er season’s pace at this point. China is obviously the top
Corn: 26.4 / 200-600 / 439.5 Beans: 105.0 / 100-400 / 180.3 destination at 10.744 MMT (423 mbu), with Mexico sec-
Wheat: 325.9 / 200-450 / 398.3 Meal: 3.9 / 0-50 / 0.5 ond at 1.87 MMT (73 mbu), “unknown” third at 885k
tonnes (35 mbu), and Japan fourth at 775k tonnes (30 mbu).
• ‘20/21 USDA Carryout (bln bu): June USDA / Avg Est / May USDA
Corn: 1.107 / 1.207 / 1.257 Beans: 0.135 / 0.122 / 0.120 New-Crop Corn Export Sales
Wheat: 0.852 / 0.869 / 0.872
18 708
• ‘21/22 USDA Carryout (bln bu): June USDA / Avg Est / May USDA Current
Corn: 1.357 / 1.423 / 1.507 Beans: 0.155 / 0.146 / 0.140
Wheat: 0.770 / 0.783 / 0.774 LY
16 630
• ‘20/21 World Carryout (MMT): June USDA / Avg Est / May USDA 19/20
Corn: 280.6 / 280.8 / 283.5 Beans: 88.00 / 87.14 / 86.55
Wheat: 293.5 / 294.4 / 294.7 18/19
14 551
• ‘21/22 World Carryout (MMT): June USDA / Avg Est / May USDA 17/18
Corn: 289.4 / 289.2 / 292.3 Beans: 92.55 / 91.22 / 91.10 16/17
Wheat: 296.8 / 294.5 / 295.0
WEATHER UPDATE 12 472

Million Bushels
• WCB rain chances arrive today but conditions remain dry otherwise; precip is
Million Tonnes

creeping in to east a bit later into the 11-15 day. Temps remain above-normal.
NWS 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK: TEMPS & PRECIP 10 394

8 315

6 236

CFTC MANAGED MONEY & RECORD (Since June 2006) POSITIONS:

4 157
Corn Beans Meal Oil Chi Wheat KC Wheat

Daily 10,000 -10,000 -6,000 -1,000 1,000 0 2 79

Est Net 337,600 139,421 7,355 92,029 -7,777 18,385
Rec + 498,177 260,433 132,126 125,722 66,351 72,845 0 0
O
N
S

F
M
A
M

A
J

J
J

Rec - -344,185 -171,141 -53,070 -110,846 -171,269 -59,759

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Answer: Alcatraz