TAB]

FORECASTING TEMPLATE
Method 1: AMM Method 2: ASL Method 3: AGC
AMM AMM Increment ASL ASL Growth AGC AGC
Year PR Forecast Error Year dropout Y2-Y1 Forecast Error Year dropout Rate Forecast Error
2011 93.59 92.324 xx 2011 0 0 xx 2011 0 0 xx
2012 94.02 92.324 1.70 2012 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 2012 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
2013 93.94 92.324 1.62 2013 0.51 0.51 0.00 0.51 2013 0.51 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
2014 90.78 92.324 1.54 2014 0 -0.51 0.00 0.00 2014 0 -100.00% #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
2015 89.29 92.324 3.03 2015 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 2015 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
2016 92.324 0.00 #DIV/0!
2017 92.324 0.00 #DIV/0!
2018 92.324 0.00 #DIV/0!
2019 92.324 0.00 #DIV/0!
2020 92.324 0.00 #DIV/0!
2021 92.324 0.00 #DIV/0!
2022 92.324 0.00 #DIV/0!

Total 461.62 95 7.89 Total 0.00 0.51 Total #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

n 5 4 n 4 4 n 1 0
Mean 92.324 MAD 1.97 Mean 0.00 MAD 0.13 Mean #DIV/0! MAD #DIV/0!
Adjusted 7.89 Factor #DIV/0!
n 4
MAD 1.9725

Page PAGE]
 TAB]

Note: The lowest MAD is the best method.

Page PAGE]
 TAB]

Method 4: SSL TARGET

X Y X x y xy x2 SSL SSL Conservative Medium High
Year dropout Trend Forecast error
2011 0 1 -2 -0.10 0.20 4 0.10 xx
2012 0 2 -1 -0.10 0.10 1 0.10 0.10
2013 0.51 3 0 0.41 0.00 0 0.10 0.41
2014 0 4 1 -0.10 -0.10 1 0.10 0.10
2015 0 5 2 -0.10 -0.20 4 0.10 0.10
0.10 89.47
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.10

Total 0.51 15 0 0.00 10 0.71

n 5 5 5 4
Mean 0.10 3 0 slope(b) 0.00 MAD 0.18
intercept(a) 0.10

slope(b) 0.00
intercept(a) 0.10

Page PAGE]
 TAB]

SSL TARGET
Year dropout Forecast Conservative Medium High
2011 0 0
2012 0 0
2013 0.51 0
2014 0 0
2015 0 0
2016 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
2017 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
2018 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
2019 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
2020 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
2021 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
2022 0 0.00 0.00 0
Max 0
GAP 0
Current GAP 0.00 0 0 0
Increment 0 0 0

Page PAGE]
 TAB]

Page PAGE]
FORECASTING TEMPLATE
Method 1: AMM Method 2: ASL Method 3: AGC
AMM AMM Increment ASL ASL
Year CSR Forecast Error Year CSR Y2-Y1 Forecast Error Year
2011 86.76 91.396 xx 2011 86.76 86.76 xx 2011
2012 91.12 91.396 0.28 2012 91.12 4.36 88.46 2.67 2012
2013 94.70 91.396 3.30 2013 94.7 3.58 90.15 4.55 2013
2014 90.86 91.396 0.54 2014 90.86 -3.84 91.85 0.99 2014
2015 93.54 91.396 2.14 2015 93.54 2.68 93.54 0.00 2015
2016 91.396 95.24
2017 91.396 96.93
2018 91.396 98.63
2019 91.396 100.32
2020 91.396 102.02
2021 91.396 103.71
2022 91.396 105.41

Total 456.98 95 6.26 Total 6.78 8.20

n 5 4 n 4 4
Mean 91.396 MAD 1.57 Mean 1.70 MAD 2.05
Adjusted 6.26
n 4
MAD 1.565

Note: The lowest MAD is the best method.

Method 3: AGC Method 4: SSL
Growth AGC AGC X Y X x y xy
CSR Rate Forecast Error Year CSR Trend
86.76 86.76 xx 2011 86.76 1 -2 -4.64 9.27
91.12 5.03% 88.46 2.66 2012 91.12 2 -1 -0.28 0.28
94.7 3.93% 90.20 4.50 2013 94.7 3 0 3.30 0.00
90.86 -4.05% 91.97 1.11 2014 90.86 4 1 -0.54 -0.54
93.54 2.95% 93.77 0.23 2015 93.54 5 2 2.14 4.29
95.61
97.49
99.40
101.35
103.34
105.37
107.44

Total 0.08 8.50 Total 456.98 15 0 13.30

n 4 4 n 5 5 5
Mean 0.02 MAD 2.13 Mean 91.40 3 0 slope(b) 1.33
intercept(a) 87.41
Factor 1.02
slope(b) 1.33
intercept(a) 87.41
 TARGET
x2 SSL SSL Conservative Medium High
Forecast error
4 88.74 xx
1 90.07 1.05
0 91.40 3.30
1 92.73 1.87
4 94.06 0.52
95.39 95.23
96.72
98.05
99.38
100.71
102.04
103.37

10 6.74
4
MAD 1.69
 SSL TARGET
Year CSR Forecast Conservative Medium High
2011 86.76 91.396
2012 91.12 91.396
2013 94.70 91.396
2014 90.86 91.396
2015 93.54 91.396
2016 91.396 93.74 93.93 94.32
2017 91.396 93.93 94.32 95.10
2018 91.396 94.13 94.71 95.88
2019 91.396 94.32 95.10 96.66
2020 91.396 94.52 95.49 97.44
2021 91.396 94.71 95.88 98.22
2022 91.396 94.91 96.27 99
Max 99
GAP 7.604
Current GAP 5.46 1.365 2.73 5.46
Increment 0.195 0.39 0.78
FORECASTING TEMPLATE
Method 1: AMM Method 2: ASL Method 3: AGC
AMM AMM Increment ASL ASL
Year Comp Forecast Error Year Comp Y2-Y1 Forecast Error Year
2011 63.95 88.17 xx 2011 63.95 63.95 xx 2011
2012 97.00 88.17 8.83 2012 97.00 33.05 70.99 26.01 2012
2013 100.00 88.17 11.83 2013 100.00 3.00 78.03 21.98 2013
2014 87.80 88.17 0.37 2014 87.80 -12.20 85.06 2.74 2014
2015 92.10 88.17 3.93 2015 92.10 4.30 92.10 0.00 2015
2016 88.17 99.14
2017 88.17 106.18
2018 88.17 113.21
2019 88.17 120.25
2020 88.17 127.29
2021 88.17 134.33
2022 88.17 141.36

Total 440.85 97 24.96 Total 28.15 50.73

n 5 4 n 4 4
Mean 88.17 MAD 6.24 Mean 7.04 MAD 12.68
Adjusted 24.96
n 4
MAD 6.24

Note: The lowest MAD is the best method.

Method 3: AGC Method 4: SSL
Growth AGC AGC X Y X x y xy
Comp Rate Forecast Error Year Comp Trend
63.95 63.95 xx 2011 63.95 1 -2 -24.22 48.44
97.00 51.68% 71.54 25.46 2012 97.00 2 -1 8.83 -8.83
100.00 3.09% 80.03 19.97 2013 100.00 3 0 11.83 0.00
87.80 -12.20% 89.53 1.73 2014 87.80 4 1 -0.37 -0.37
92.10 4.90% 100.15 8.05 2015 92.10 5 2 3.93 7.86
112.04
125.33
140.21
156.85
175.46
196.29
219.58

Total 0.47 55.21 Total 440.85 15 0 47.10

n 4 4 n 5 5 5
Mean 0.12 MAD 13.80 Mean 88.17 3 0 slope(b) 4.71
intercept(a) 74.04
Factor 1.12
slope(b) 4.71
intercept(a) 74.04
 TARGET
x2 SSL SSL Conservative Medium High
Forecast error
4 78.75 xx
1 83.46 13.54
0 88.17 11.83
1 92.88 5.08
4 97.59 5.49
102.30 101.09
107.01
111.72
116.43
121.14
125.85
130.56

10 35.94
4
MAD 8.99
 SSL TARGET
Year Comp Forecast Conservative Medium High
2011 63.95 88.17
2012 97.00 88.17
2013 100.00 88.17
2014 87.80 88.17
2015 92.10 88.17
2016 88.17 92.38 92.66 93.23
2017 88.17 92.66 93.23 94.36
2018 88.17 92.95 93.79 95.49
2019 88.17 93.23 94.36 96.61
2020 88.17 93.51 94.92 97.74
2021 88.17 93.79 95.49 98.87
2022 88.17 94.08 96.05 100
Max 100
GAP 11.83
Current GAP 7.90 1.975 3.95 7.9
Increment 0.282142857 0.564286 1.12857
FORECASTING TEMPLATE
Method 1: AMM Method 2: ASL Method 3: AGC
AMM AMM Increment ASL ASL
Year Prom Forecast Error Year Prom Y2-Y1 Forecast Error Year
2011 95.56 98.366 xx 2011 95.56 95.56 xx 2011
2012 100.00 98.366 1.63 2012 100 4.44 95.53 4.47 2012
2013 97.95 98.366 0.42 2013 97.95 -2.05 95.51 2.45 2013
2014 102.87 98.366 4.50 2014 102.87 4.92 95.48 7.39 2014
2015 95.45 98.366 2.92 2015 95.45 -7.42 95.45 0.00 2015
2016 98.366 95.42
2017 98.366 95.40
2018 98.366 95.37
2019 98.366 95.34
2020 98.366 95.31
2021 98.366 95.29
2022 98.366 95.26

Total 491.83 100 9.47 Total -0.11 14.31

n 5 4 n 4 4
Mean 98.366 MAD 2.37 Mean -0.03 MAD 3.58
Adjusted 9.47
n 4
MAD 2.3675

Note: The lowest MAD is the best method.

Method 3: AGC Method 4: SSL
Growth AGC AGC X Y X x y xy
Prom Rate Forecast Error Year Prom Trend
95.56 95.56 xx 2011 95.56 1 -2 -2.81 5.61
100 4.65% 95.66 4.34 2012 100 2 -1 1.63 -1.63
97.95 -2.05% 95.75 2.20 2013 97.95 3 0 -0.42 0.00
102.87 5.02% 95.85 7.02 2014 102.87 4 1 4.50 4.50
95.45 -7.21% 95.95 0.50 2015 95.45 5 2 -2.92 -5.83
96.05
96.14
96.24
96.34
96.44
96.54
96.63

Total 0.00 14.06 Total 491.83 15 0 2.65

n 4 4 n 5 5 5
Mean 0.00 MAD 3.51 Mean 98.37 3 0 slope(b) 0.27
intercept(a) 97.57
Factor 1.00
slope(b) 0.27
intercept(a) 97.57
 TARGET
x2 SSL SSL Conservative Medium High
Forecast error
4 97.84 xx
1 98.10 1.90
0 98.37 0.42
1 98.63 4.24
4 98.90 3.45
99.16 97.95
99.43
99.69
99.96
100.22
100.49
100.75

10 10.00
4
MAD 2.50
 SSL TARGET
Year Prom Forecast Conservative Medium High
2011 95.56 98.366
2012 100.00 98.366
2013 97.95 98.366
2014 102.87 98.366
2015 95.45 98.366
2016 98.366 95.61 95.78 96.10
2017 98.366 95.78 96.10 96.75
2018 98.366 95.94 96.43 97.40
2019 98.366 96.10 96.75 98.05
2020 98.366 96.26 97.08 98.70
2021 98.366 96.43 97.40 99.35
2022 98.366 96.59 97.73 100
Max 100
GAP 1.634
Current GAP 4.55 1.1375 2.275 4.55
Increment 0.1625 0.325 0.65
FORECASTING TEMPLATE
Method 1: AMM Method 2: ASL Method 3: AGC
AMM AMM Increment ASL ASL
Year Repetition Forecast Error Year Repetition Y2-Y1 Forecast Error Year
2011 0.85 0.54 xx 2011 0.85 0.85 xx 2011
2012 0.55 0.54 0.01 2012 0.55 -0.30 0.64 0.09 2012
2013 1.30 0.54 0.76 2013 1.3 0.75 0.43 0.88 2013
2014 0.00 0.54 0.54 2014 0 -1.30 0.21 0.21 2014
2015 0.00 0.54 0.54 2015 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 2015
2016 0.54 -0.21
2017 0.54 -0.43
2018 0.54 -0.64
2019 0.54 -0.85
2020 0.54 -1.06
2021 0.54 -1.28
2022 0.54 -1.49

Total 2.7 1.85 Total -0.85 1.18

n 5 4 n 4 4
Mean 0.54 MAD 0.46 Mean -0.21 MAD 0.29
Adjusted 1.85
n 4
MAD 0.4625

Note: The lowest MAD is the best method.

Method 3: AGC Method 4: SSL
Growth AGC AGC X Y X x y xy
Repetition Rate Forecast Error Year Repetition Trend
0.85 0.85 xx 2011 0.85 1 -2 0.31 -0.62
0.55 -35.29% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 2012 0.55 2 -1 0.01 -0.01
1.3 136.36% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 2013 1.3 3 0 0.76 0.00
0 -100.00% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 2014 0 4 1 -0.54 -0.54
0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 2015 0 5 2 -0.54 -1.08
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!

Total #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Total 2.70 15 0 -2.25

n 3 0 n 5 5 5
Mean #DIV/0! MAD #DIV/0! Mean 0.54 3 0 slope(b) -0.23
intercept(a) 1.22
Factor #DIV/0!
slope(b) -0.23
intercept(a) 1.22
 TARGET
x2 SSL SSL Conservative Medium High
Forecast error
4 0.99 xx
1 0.77 0.22
0 0.54 0.76
1 0.32 0.32
4 0.09 0.09
-0.14 0.35
-0.36
-0.59
-0.81
-1.04
-1.26
-1.49

10 1.38
4
MAD 0.35
 SSL TARGET
Year Repetition Forecast Conservative Medium High
2011 0.85 0.85
2012 0.55 0.6375
2013 1.30 0.425
2014 0.00 0.2125
2015 0.00 0
2016 -0.2125 0.00 0.00 0.00
2017 -0.425 0.00 0.00 0.00
2018 -0.6375 0.00 0.00 0.00
2019 -0.85 0.00 0.00 0.00
2020 -1.0625 0.00 0.00 0.00
2021 -1.275 0.00 0.00 0.00
2022 -1.4875 0.00 0.00 0
Max 0
GAP 1.4875
Current GAP 0.00 0 0 0
Increment 0 0 0
FORECASTING TEMPLATE
Method 1: AMM Method 2: ASL Method 3: AGC
AMM AMM Increment ASL ASL
Year Retention Forecast Error Year Retention Y2-Y1 Forecast Error Year
2011 87.90 89.84 xx 2011 87.9 87.9 xx 2011
2012 88.10 89.84 1.74 2012 88.1 0.20 90.93 2.83 2012
2013 87.30 89.84 2.54 2013 87.3 -0.80 93.95 6.65 2013
2014 85.90 89.84 3.94 2014 85.9 -1.40 96.98 11.08 2014
2015 100.00 89.84 10.16 2015 100 14.10 100.00 0.00 2015
2016 89.84 103.03
2017 89.84 106.05
2018 89.84 109.08
2019 89.84 112.10
2020 89.84 115.13
2021 89.84 118.15
2022 89.84 121.18

Total 449.2 18.38 Total 12.10 20.55

n 5 4 n 4 4
Mean 89.84 MAD 4.60 Mean 3.03 MAD 5.14
Adjusted 18.38
n 4
MAD 4.595

Note: The lowest MAD is the best method.

Method 3: AGC Method 4: SSL
Growth AGC AGC X Y X x y xy
Retention Rate Forecast Error Year Retention Trend
87.9 87.9 xx 2011 87.9 1 -2 -1.94 3.88
88.1 0.23% 91.01 2.91 2012 88.1 2 -1 -1.74 1.74
87.3 -0.91% 94.22 6.92 2013 87.3 3 0 -2.54 0.00
85.9 -1.60% 97.55 11.65 2014 85.9 4 1 -3.94 -3.94
100 16.41% 100.99 0.99 2015 100 5 2 10.16 20.32
104.56
108.26
112.08
116.04
120.14
124.38
128.78

Total 0.14 22.47 Total 449.20 15 0 22.00

n 4 4 n 5 5 5
Mean 0.04 MAD 5.62 Mean 89.84 3 0 slope(b) 2.20
intercept(a) 83.24
Factor 1.04
slope(b) 2.20
intercept(a) 83.24
 TARGET
x2 SSL SSL Conservative Medium High
Forecast error
4 85.44 xx
1 87.64 0.46
0 89.84 2.54
1 92.04 6.14
4 94.24 5.76
96.44 103.73
98.64
100.84
103.04
105.24
107.44
109.64

10 14.90
4
MAD 3.73
 SSL TARGET
Year Retention Forecast Conservative Medium High
2011 87.90 85.44
2012 88.10 87.64
2013 87.30 89.84
2014 85.90 92.04
2015 100.00 94.24
2016 96.44 100.00 100.00 100.00
2017 98.64 100.00 100.00 100.00
2018 100.84 100.00 100.00 100.00
2019 103.04 100.00 100.00 100.00
2020 105.24 100.00 100.00 100.00
2021 107.44 100.00 100.00 100.00
2022 109.64 100.00 100.00 100
Max 100
GAP -9.64
Current GAP 0.00 0 0 0
Increment 0 0 0
FORECASTING TEMPLATE
Method 1: AMM Method 2: ASL
AMM AMM Increment ASL ASL
Year SLVR Forecast Error Year Retention Y2-Y1 Forecast Error
2011 4.44 2.76 xx 2011 4.44 4.44 xx
2012 0.00 2.76 2.76 2012 0 -4.44 4.47 4.47
2013 2.05 2.76 0.71 2013 2.05 2.05 4.50 2.45
2014 2.76 2.76 2014 0 -2.05 4.52 4.52
2015 4.55 2.76 1.79 2015 4.55 4.55 4.55 0.00
2016 2.76 4.58
2017 2.76 4.61
2018 2.76 4.63
2019 2.76 4.66
2020 2.76 4.69
2021 2.76 4.72
2022 2.76 4.74

Total 11.04 8.02 Total 0.11 11.44

n 4 4 n 4 4
Mean 2.76 MAD 2.01 Mean 0.03 MAD 2.86
Adjusted 8.02
n 4
MAD 2.005

Note: The lowest MAD is the best method.

Method 3: AGC Method 4: SSL
Growth AGC AGC X Y X x
Year Retention Rate Forecast Error Year Retention Trend
2011 4.44 4.44 xx 2011 4.44 1 -2
2012 0 -100.00% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 2012 0 2 -1
2013 2.05 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 2013 2.05 3 0
2014 0 -100.00% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 2014 0 4 1
2015 4.55 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 2015 4.55 5 2
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!

Total #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Total 11.04 15 0

n 2 0 n 5 5 5
Mean #DIV/0! MAD ### Mean 2.21 3 0

Factor #DIV/0!
 TARGET
y xy x2 SSL SSL Conservative Medium High
Forecast error
2.23 -4.46 4 2.16 xx
-2.21 2.21 1 2.19 2.19
-0.16 0.00 0 2.21 0.16
-2.21 -2.21 1 2.23 2.23
2.34 4.68 4 2.25 2.30
2.27 6.27
2.30
2.32
2.34
2.36
2.38
2.41

0.22 10 6.87
4
slope(b) 0.02 MAD 1.72
intercept(a 2.14

slope(b) 0.34
intercept(a 1.82
 SSL TARGET
Year SLVR Forecast Conservative
Medium High
2011 4.44 2.164
2012 0.00 2.186
2013 2.05 2.208
2014 2.23
2015 4.55 2.252
2016 2.274 4.44 4.33 4.11
2017 2.296 4.33 4.11 3.68
2018 2.318 4.22 3.90 3.24
2019 2.34 4.11 3.68 2.81
2020 2.362 4.01 3.46 2.37
2021 2.384 3.90 3.24 1.94
2022 2.406 3.79 3.03 1.5
Max 1.5
GAP -0.906
Current -3.05 -0.7625 -1.525 -3.05
Increment -0.1089 -0.2179 -0.4357
FORECASTING TEMPLATE
Method 1: AMM Method 2: ASL
AMM AMM Increment ASL ASL
Year NAT Forecast Error Year NAT Y2-Y1 Forecast Error
2011 71.58 69.96 xx 2011 71.58 71.58 xx
2012 66.37 69.96 3.59 2012 66.37 -5.21 69.96 3.59
2013 80.18 69.96 10.22 2013 80.18 13.81 68.35 11.84
2014 66.56 69.96 3.40 2014 66.56 -13.62 66.73 0.17
2015 65.11 69.96 4.85 2015 65.11 -1.45 65.11 0.00
2016 69.96 63.49
2017 69.96 61.88
2018 69.96 60.26
2019 69.96 58.64
2020 69.96 57.02
2021 69.96 55.41
2022 69.96 53.79

Total 349.8 22.06 Total -6.47 15.60

n 5 4 n 4 4
Mean 69.96 MAD 5.52 Mean -1.62 MAD 3.90
Adjusted 22.06
n 4
MAD 5.515

Note: The lowest MAD is the best method.

Method 3: AGC Method 4: SSL
Growth AGC AGC X Y X x
Year NAT Rate Forecast Error Year NAT Trend
2011 71.58 71.58 xx 2011 71.58 1 -2
2012 66.37 -7.28% 70.57 4.20 2012 66.37 2 -1
2013 80.18 20.81% 69.58 10.60 2013 80.18 3 0
2014 66.56 -16.99% 68.60 2.04 2014 66.56 4 1
2015 65.11 -2.18% 67.63 2.52 2015 65.11 5 2
66.68
65.74
64.81
63.90
63.00
62.11
61.23

Total -0.06 19.36 Total 349.80 15 0

n 4 4 n 5 5 5
Mean -0.01 MAD 4.84 Mean 69.96 3 0

Factor 0.99
 TARGET
y xy x2 SSL SSL Conservative Medium High
Forecast error
1.62 -3.24 4 72.51 xx
-3.59 3.59 1 71.24 4.87
10.22 0.00 0 69.96 10.22
-3.40 -3.40 1 68.69 2.12
-4.85 -9.70 4 67.41 2.30
66.14 69.99
64.86
63.59
62.31
61.04
59.76
58.49

-12.75 10 19.51
4
slope(b) -1.28 MAD 4.88
intercept(a 73.79

slope(b) -1.28
intercept(a 73.79
 SSL TARGET
Year NAT Forecast Conservative Medium High
2011 71.58
2012 66.37 69.9625
2013 80.18 68.345
2014 66.56 66.7275
2015 65.11 65.11
2016 63.4925 65.46 65.82 66.52
2017 61.875 65.82 66.52 67.94
2018 60.2575 66.17 67.23 69.35
2019 58.64 66.52 67.94 70.76
2020 57.0225 66.88 68.64 72.17
2021 55.405 67.23 69.35 73.59
2022 53.7875 67.58 70.06 75
Max 75
GAP 21.2125
Current 9.89 2.4725 4.945 9.89
Increment 0.35321429 0.7064286 1.4128571
FORECASTING TEMPLATE
Method 1: AMM Method 2: ASL
AMM AMM Increment ASL ASL
Year ENROLMENTForecast Error Year ENROLMENT Y2-Y1 Forecast Error
2011 216.00 177.4 xx 2011 216 216 xx
2012 195.00 177.4 17.60 2012 195 -21.00 199.00 4.00
2013 174.00 177.4 3.40 2013 174 -21.00 182.00 8.00
2014 154.00 177.4 23.40 2014 154 -20.00 165.00 11.00
2015 148.00 177.4 29.40 2015 148 -6.00 148.00 0.00
2016 177.4 131.00
2017 177.4 114.00
2018 177.4 97.00
2019 177.4 80.00
2020 177.4 63.00
2021 177.4 46.00
2022 177.4 29.00

Total 887 73.80 Total -68.00 23.00

n 5 4 n 4 4
Mean 177.4 MAD 18.45 Mean -17.00 MAD 5.75
Adjusted 73.8
n 4
MAD 18.45

Note: The lowest MAD is the best method.

Method 3: AGC Method 4: SSL
Growth AGC AGC X Y X x
Year ENROLMENT Rate Forecast Error Year ENROLMENT Trend
2011 216 216 xx 2011 216 1 -2
2012 195 -9.72% 196.62 1.62 2012 195 2 -1
2013 174 -10.77% 178.99 4.99 2013 174 3 0
2014 154 -11.49% 162.93 8.93 2014 154 4 1
2015 148 -3.90% 148.31 0.31 2015 148 5 2
135.01
122.90
111.87
101.84
92.70
84.39
76.82

Total -0.36 15.85 Total 887.00 15 0

n 4 4 n 5 5 5
Mean -0.09 MAD 3.96 Mean 177.40 3 0

Factor 0.91
 TARGET
y xy x2 SSL SSL Conservative Medium High
Forecast error
38.60 -77.20 4 212.80 xx
17.60 -17.60 1 195.10 0.10
-3.40 0.00 0 177.40 3.40
-23.40 -23.40 1 159.70 5.70
-29.40 -58.80 4 142.00 6.00
124.30 151.80
106.60
88.90
71.20
53.50
35.80
18.10

-177.00 10 15.20
4
slope(b) -17.70 MAD 3.80
intercept(a 230.50

slope(b) -17.70
intercept(a 230.50
 SSL TARGET
Year NAT Forecast Conservative Medium High
2011 216 212.8
2012 195 195.1
2013 174 177.4
2014 154 159.7
2015 148 142
2016 124.3 148.43 148.86 149.71
2017 106.6 148.86 149.71 151.43
2018 88.9 149.29 150.57 153.14
2019 71.2 149.71 151.43 154.86
2020 53.5 150.14 152.29 156.57
2021 35.8 150.57 153.14 158.29
2022 18.1 151.00 154.00 160
Max 160
GAP 141.9
Current GAP 12.00 3 6 12
Increment 0.42857143 0.85714 1.7142857