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ist i mcr Chu is Mé hinh TMOT gitia 02 Qgia A va B; sx va trao 481 02 HH: Ogia A: déi dito lao ding, X tham dung lao dong. * Vim dé: Xem xél tde dOng cia ting trudng dén san hugng, gid cd, md ttc thuong mai, hidi luong XWVK etta 6 02 nurée. 6.03 kigu ting trun: : + Pang trudng déu (1.66 wong thy té) + Tang truéng Iéch vé nganh X - xudt khéu + Ting trudng Igch vé nganh Y - nhdp khdu (hin 133) ~Nguvén nhfin “+ Tidn BO AY thug trong mt nganh dich chuyén PPF 10n phia trén nhung lech v8 hung nganh ndy hon nganh kde. + Mike cung mt yéu 16 ngudn lee ting len dich chuyén PPF lén irén nhung léch ve hucéng Aganh thim dung ithiéu yéu t6 nguén lee nay hon, DB bai dat raz Tang’ von va LD lén cing mot ti Ig. Tite la mite cung cae yéu t6 ngudn lye tang nhw hau. Nhung tuy thudc vao tién b6 Kf thuft trong ting nganh va chinh sch TMQT eta qude gia trong timng thoi ky ma 6 mOt md hinh ting trudng cy thé. Gia sit Quée gia A ddi dio LD, X tham dung lao dOng, theo xu huéng chung hién nay ode nurée tp trung phat trién kinh té theo huéng céng, ngiép hod huéng vé xudt khdu, hai thac loi thé so sénh vé lao déng. Nhu vay, cing mot ti 18 ting vén va lao dong tai QG A, nganh X s8 duge wu tién dau tr hon, c6 tién bé ky thuat how so véi nganh Y. Trong trvdng hgp nay, vén va LD ctia quée pia tang 1én cong mét ti 1é nhung tang trudng sé léch vé nganh X. (Chi dit git thide va lg tan theo tardng nay dé clogne tas # pike tek, rvs vay cling phit hyp v6i VN bidn nay. Theo chj thi chi Ta loch vd xudtt khdu hode (ech ve nh(p Khaw, sou hi i tugn phai chow ‘cxding 06 quédc gia nao viva ich bén np tpi tgch bén kia). nh XK ad. phi tht hoge sift theh. * Siin Luong, gid ci m6 thiee teeong mai, khdt legng XNK cita cé 02 nude sé thay abi phy thude yao tink chit eta ting tricdng va dite trung cia clu & cdc thi trudng. © Ting trudng Igch vé ngaah X - xudt kbAu: Minh 133 (tde dng gid, sin lngng) : - Ting trvdng léch vé X, PPF dich chuyén lén.trén va phinh to hon vé phfa nganh X. - Tai mBi mifc gid tuong déi Py/Py, sau khi tang truong Iéch vé X mute sin luong tuong di cha aganh X ting lén thé hign trén m6 hin la (X/Y)e > (X/¥)s. Vi thé, gid ed twong di cila X sé gid xudng. Hiah 136 (tie d@ng dn mb thie thaong mat vd kd6i trgag XN) ~ Ban dau, thi trugng & mite gid (Px/Py)e cn bang ngoai thuong 6 diém E + Quée gia 1 ting truéng Iéch v8 nganh X, dudng cong ngoai thuong dich chuyén sang phai c&t dubng'git & diém A (quéc gia | mong muén xudt kodu nbiéu hon nhu cdu thé gisi 6 mite gid nay), Do vay, gid ca trong di gidm xuéng. i mite gid méi (Px/Py)e < (Px/Py)e can bing ngoai thong dat duge 6 diém B, diém cit nhau cia dwvong cong ngoai thong méi cia QG 1, dung cong ngogi throng cla QG 2 va dudng gid mdi = Gid ca tong d6i tia hang hod XK giam, ti 1€ trao déi xu di, Thé hign qua ti 1 san fugng trao db va mite gid wong déi tei diém B va diém B. - Cé trvéng hop-tt 1@ trao déi-gidm nghiém trong, vuot qué nhting I9i ich 06 duge Wy tang trwong, dain én phic Igi nén kté iam xudng. (Pang trdng nghéo hod). [Cu Feo qude” ate”. Néu dung cong ngogi thuong cia QG2 66 hinh déng cong gdp hon nhu m6 ta trong md hink (clu X00 gin thi) tht cn bing thuong mai late nay dat duge & diém B. Mite gid gidm cang nhidu hon va tl 16 trao adi cia QG | cing giim. Nhu vy, thy thuge vao tink co gin etia clu NK sp X cla quée gia 2; ma tae dng vao mite gid, mé thie thuong mai, kh6i ltrong XNK. ah (57 (Ike Ang din phite ti) ‘Tang lwéng Iech, néu mic gid khéng 451 QCiI se sn xudt tai diém B'trén duds méi, Nhung thye t6, gid tong d6i gidm, dudng cong bang quan tiép xc voi dudng y fch gid Up (Px/Py)e cAn bling ngoai thuong 6 diém B. TH Ig trao adi duge cai thign, ThE hign qua ti 1€ sén lurong trao di va mibc'gid twong d6i tai diém B va diém B. ‘Néu durdng cong ngoai throng ciiss QG2 06 hinh dang cong gdp hon nhur mé té trong m6 hinh (cung Y co gian) tht can bing throng mai dat duoc 6 diém B°. Gid sp Y cing gidm, Mic gid tuong d6i tang cang nhidu hon (Px/Py)e> (Px/Py)a > (Px/Py)e va tl 18 trao déi ctla QG 1 cang duge cai thign. Nhu vay, tity thuge vao d9 co gitin cita cung XK ova quée gia 2; ma mito gid ting khdc nkau " tde déng vio mé thiic:thurong mai, kh6i wong XNK : 2 Phite igi quée'gia: Gid twong déi Hing, dudng cong bang quan tigp xite véi duran, gid ting, loi fch ing Us>Ue. Tang teréng, Jéch vé nganb nh@p khau mang lai loi ich cho quéc gia. uP) Chu 3: = Ty do hod ‘TM 1a: ting bide gidm thidu hang rao thué quan va phi thué quan nhm tao thugn loi cho sy ptrién ota céc hddg TMQT ci vé bé rong va bé sau, Un diém; = Tao dk thém np, mé rOng thj trudng rane ngoai, khai théc Igi thé so sanh; Thi trudng Ong 16n thic ddy phan cOng LD higu qué hon. canh tranh, ptr sx. - Gitip DPT xay dung méi trvdng dau tw hién dai nhve tai chinh, bao hiém. - Gidp DPT cé ngudn vbn dép ng cde nhu cau ptrién. - DPT tiép can tirwdng dé hon; dugc hudng loi tir clit giam rao can d6i vi ndng sda Nhuge diém: ~ DPT cOng nghiép non tr8, kbd nding canh tranh thép, thua thigt, _ + That nghigp ting va suy gidm thu nhap tir céc loai thué cé thé anh huéng nghiém trong tei quéc gia. ~ Khai théc can kiét tai nguyén. Chuyén CN lac hau, nhting nganh sx gay 6 nhiém sang PPT. «cs i ca eée nue va cla Viet Nam trong thdi ky Ichiing hodng: ~ Dac diém kinh té thdi khiing hoang + TM suy gid manh, + Ludng von FDI giam. + SX dinh tr8, nhiéu DN kh6 khan, pha sin + THe that nghiép cao - Chfnh sich TM ota cde nude trong khing hoang: 7 + Tang curong bao hd SX trong nude. Xu hudng ting thu, ting céc hang rao NK, tro ofp +Kich cdu dau tu; kich ou tiéu ding: ting chi tiéu CP, ha Iai suat, ass (Vide thém veo ri gitt tai cho chj vil) - Chfnh sach TM oda Viet Nam: + VN dang hinh thanh nén kté huéng XK, khuyén khfch BTNN Khai théc tiém nang to Ién: tai nguyén, site lao dng ddi dao dé san xudt hang XK. + Cé nhiéu sy thay déi trong CSTM nhim h6i nhap ngay cdsg su hon vao nén kté thé gid . Hang rao thué quan phit hop véi co ché kté thj trading va cam két quée té: +Mién giam thud XNK trén co sé khong phan biét d6i xi va kh6ng gin voi yéu clu vé XK hay ndi dia h6a.+ Gidm mite thué NK binh quan + Tham gia 1 sé bigp dinh ty do héa theo nganh: CNT tin, dét may, thiét bj y té ...- Dan loai bé quota, han ngach, gidy phép.+ Tiép tuc 4p dung céc hang rao ki thugt pha hop v6i quy dinh cha WTO nham bao vé cudc sing ciia con ngudi, déng thyre-vat, att: Khe oGng dng va mdi trong, Tiép tue dp dung cae quy dinh nhim bao vé an niah qgia, chéng gian Win TM. fp tcadu tu la medic nhb, cuing es. hién dong khong nh Incong xi dén thé gidi do yy tap trung phéin tich trang trating, fyo;9 ends etic dein thud ve chit yeu & phan téw dng cia thud dén gid versan lugng (vi edn hoi we ter: dag cia thud KK den tam phéat. * Phan tich cin bang cuc bp HI21 (106i voi hang NK): Ban dau thj trvdng ¢ trang thai cAn bing tai mite gid thé gidi P's", {yi mite gid nay QG sé san xudt tai $1, tiéu ding & Dj, eau tnita IA Dy- Sudiuge mhdip khdu dé Ap trng, ~ Khi CP danh thué, gid trong nude ting 0n Py, cau gidm tir Dy xudng Da, cung ting tir S; len So, cau thiva gidm (D2- S2) < (D)- $1), cau NK giam. + Thing dw cia NTD gidm (dign tich dwéi dudng edu én durdng gid): atb+otd + Thing du cia NSX ting (dign tich trén duong cung du6i durdng gid): + Chinh pha thu dugc thué: ¢ Qube gia | bj thigt hai: btd do khuyén khich sx kh6ng higu qua. * Phan tich cin bing tng thé - Hink 122 ~ Ban dau thj trang trong nude & diém ofin bing Ey, tai mite gié (Px/Py)), Itc nay qué gia sin xudt vatiéu ding & mite san hugng (X,, Y,). - Khicé pM gid Y thé gidi thép hon, (Py/Py)2> (Px/Py)i quée gia sé phat huy Igi thé so sénh, nén chuydn didm sx dén F (ting sx tir X, Xz va gidm sx Y)-Y3), diém tiga ding Hs. cung thita MF (xudt Khdu), cau thiva BaF nhap khdu dé dap ting, = Khi Chinh pho dénh thué NK san phdm Y, gid ¥ trong nude ting; gid tuong abi giam (Px/Py)s < (Px/Pya. Nha sx tng sx Y3-Yo, gidm Xj-Xp san lrgng Y tang twong di so voi X. ‘Thué quan lam chuyén diém san xuét ty F ‘tn FP gin diém ofn bling trong trudng hop ty cung tx cAp trén dung ghkn sx, khuyén khich san xudt khéng hiéu qua, ‘Trong khi gid thé gidi khéng d6i (Px/Py)o. Tal diém sx F’s6 Iugng san phdm xudt khdu Xe tt hon tai F la Xs, doanh thu xudt khéu giain. Dudng déng doanh thu dich chuyén sang trai song song véi dudng doanh thu khi chua danh thué (vi c6 cing hé 36 géc (Px/Py)z), c&t dudng ghknsx 6 F’, Pay cfing chinh la dong ddng ngén sdch. Duong cong bang quan tp xtic voi dudng ddng NS méi tai Ba, Ur

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