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BETTING ON

BATTERIES:
POWERING THE
CLEAN ENERGY
TRANSITION

MAY 2023
BETTING ON BATTERIES: POWERING THE
CLEAN ENERGY TRANSITION
With increasing global demand for batteries to power the clean
energy transition, the opportunities and risks are multiplying. New
technology, new markets and new deals, including those
associated with mineral extraction, human rights and the supply
chain, regulatory changes and the race to find funding are giving
rise to a number of issues for businesses to grapple with. In this
extract from a recent seminar, our international team considers
the implications for the automotive sector, which is predicted to
make up to 90% of future demand for batteries, as well as
renewable energy generation, energy storage and beyond.

The growing demand The IEA estimates that we will also need
a 40% increase in cobalt supply by 2050
for batteries poses – and that supply could become critical in
significant risk the 2030s because it is less easy to find
Demand for batteries is rapidly increasing and mines take longer to develop and put
– the UK has banned sales of non-hybrid into production.
internal combustion engine cars from
2030 and the EU has approved legislation "Scaling up production of existing mines
that will ensure that all new cars sold from would be the ideal way to meet growing
2035 will run either on batteries or demand. It is quicker, usually cheaper
e-fuels. "We are at the beginning of a and less risky. But, in many cases, there
revolution and the demand for battery is only limited scope to do this and even
metals is expected to increase where you can do so, metals are a finite
significantly in the coming years to power resource and many existing mines have
the electrification of tens of millions of already been in production for some
electric vehicles, as well as to provide vital years and have declining grades of
electricity storage capacity to help output," says Pay.
balance our power grids as they become
increasingly reliant on intermittent Finding new resources, obtaining
renewable power generation," says consents, developing a new mine and
London-based Partner James Pay. achieving commercial production is not a
However, to meet this demand for electric fast process. The average timescale for a
vehicle (EV) batteries and energy storage new mine is between 10 and 15 years.
batteries we will need a huge quantity of "One of the challenges is whether we can
battery metals as well as a significant increase investment and production more
increase in processing capacity to quickly to meet the levels of output
produce the complex chemicals required required to hit our net zero objectives.
to manufacture efficient EV batteries and The very least that we can conclude is
the manufacturing capacity to produce that it will be hugely challenging for the
the batteries themselves. The production mining sector and the supply chain into
and refining of these materials has a the mining sector, and for regulators and
significant carbon footprint that needs to governments to meet this challenge,"
be addressed. adds Pay.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) Battery metals are a huge opportunity for
predicts that we need a 600% increase in the mining sector, but they also highlight
the production of lithium by 2030 to be a growing number of issues: a lack of
on course to achieve net zero by 2050, skills; the lack of critical equipment
with a staggering US$360-450 billion of suppliers – particularly in the refining
investment needed by 2030 in energy sector, where China's dominance has
transition metals (including nickel and limited the number of suppliers of certain
copper) to keep us on track to achieve items of key equipment such as
net zero by 2050. autoclaves; the rise of resource

2 CLIFFORD CHANCE
BETTING ON BATTERIES: POWERING THE CLEAN ENERGY TRANSITION
nationalism with producing countries Active Materials (CAM and PCAM, for Three metals are crucial to
wanting their fair share; and where is the short) are key to the effectiveness of lithium-ion battery technologies:
money coming from? In practice, it has the batteries that are produced. Based
• Nickel: Has historically been used
become critical for car manufacturers to on current announcements, there will
for nickel plating in stainless steel.
undertake significant investment in (or at be processing shortfalls – 35% for
Australia and Indonesia have about
least commit to long-term offtake lithium and 60% for nickel sulphate – of
44% of the world's reserves of nickel,
agreements with) mines and the refining the metals that are required to stay on
and Russia and Canada are also big
sector in order to secure long-term track for net zero 2050.
producers, so production is relatively
affordable supplies for the massive
concentrated geographically.
investments that are underway in • Recycling – this is a great source of
battery gigafactories in China, Europe materials, as battery metals can be • Cobalt: Cobalt has a range of
and the US. reused. However, Thomas Voland, a historical uses, including in
German-based partner specialising in pigments, alloys and catalysts, but it
Other challenges for ESG and regulatory topics, says that is much rarer than nickel and
recycling has so far been slower than production is even more
the sector some had expected due to the geographically concentrated – with
• Political concerns in developed longevity of EVs and secondary uses of some 70% of production (and rising)
countries about the security of supply EV batteries for energy storage. coming from the DRC. Indonesia
of battery metals – with a resulting Consequently, there is still some and Australia also have significant
desire to diversify sources to avoid overcapacity, but some years down the reserves and production, but often
over-reliance on the Chinese market line it will have an important role to play with lower grades and more
and on suppliers controlled by Chinese in the battery metals supply chain. "To expensive extraction. There is a
entities, for example in the Democratic make recycling efficient, the batteries great deal of R&D in battery
Republic of Congo (DRC) – and have to be designed and built in such a technology, so we may see the
on-shore production if possible. way that the raw materials can be emergence of lithium-sulphur
separated with as little input of batteries in due course, not least as
• Political concerns in the producing chemicals, energy and other resources there is a desire to limit exposure to
countries as to how they capture their as possible", adds Voland. cobalt due to potential limits on
fair share of the value of the metals that supply and the difficulty of dealing
underpin energy transition – causing • The world's oceans are full of lithium, with some of the jurisdictions where
some to consider following, for cobalt and manganese; but deep-sea it is found.
example, Indonesia's path by requiring mining is in its infancy and highly
refining to be undertaken in the country • Lithium: Lithium does not have a
controversial given its potential
of origin. long history of successful production
environmental impacts.
and its price has been very volatile
• Economic concerns regarding how to over the past decade. It is located
contract for affordable supplies of key
ESG and critical far more widely and can be
battery metals in a world of rapidly raw materials extracted from brine as well as
escalating demand and potentially "It's very easy to overlook the potential rocks containing lithium, such as
highly volatile and rising prices. negative impacts associated with spodumene. Australia, Chile,
resource exploitation and other activities Argentina and China have the
• Capacity and compliance issues – in a involved in the transition to a global net biggest reserves, but until recently
rush to increase supply, how can zero economy," says Rae Lindsay, a there has been relatively little
appropriate ESG standards be London-based Partner specialising in investment in lithium.
maintained? How can the carbon business and human rights and ESG law.
footprint of production and refinery be "For example, cobalt is vital to the
managed? Do governments have the production of rechargeable batteries, but
capacity and skills to speed up two-thirds of the world's supply of cobalt
development of the sector while comes from the DRC where, it is
protecting their own environments, reported, child labour is in use in cobalt
people and economic interests? mining. The situation on the ground is
complex, corruption is rife, including, it is
• Supply chain – refining and battery reported, amongst those who are
manufacture. What matters is not just mandated to ensure that child labour
the mining of these key battery metals, doesn't occur, and there is violence with
but also the refining capacity that is armed groups engaged in conflicts that
required to turn them into useful battery are fuelled by competition over lucrative
materials. The quality and purity of natural resources," adds Lindsay.
these materials, known as Cathode
Active Materials and Pre-Cathode

CLIFFORD CHANCE 3
BETTING ON BATTERIES: POWERING THE CLEAN ENERGY TRANSITION
In the DRC, the large-scale mining environmental and human rights negative
operations owned by international impacts may arise, and to take steps to
companies exist alongside widespread deal with them. "It might seem particularly
artisanal mining that is unregulated, but challenging for businesses operating in
on which many local communities the US or the EU to determine how they
depend. The impact on those can meaningfully contribute to the
communities and on human rights is mitigation of these impacts down the
challenging and highlights the risks supply chain in far-flung geographical
involved in sourcing these metals, which areas where they have no direct
are then passed up the value chain. contractual relationships. However, there
are well-established standards of due
Water resources are also a challenge – diligence and risk management to help
60% of the world's known lithium businesses identify and manage these
reserves are found in the so-called risks in appropriate ways that are
'lithium triangle', an area spanning Chile, consistent with their responsibilities,"
Argentina and Bolivia. The extraction Lindsay explains.
methods used in that region are very
water intensive. This can create pressure The UN and the OECD have been
on what is already a scarce resource and instrumental in this, but these frameworks
can affect the quality of the water supply have now been adopted in the EU
to local communities, depending on the through the CS3D and the Batteries
processes used. There have been reports Regulation. Essentially, these measures
of abuses of the rights of indigenous require the creation of policies and
peoples around lithium mining projects in processes that are integrated into a
South America, and there are similar company's risk management system and
stories in other parts of the world. For help the business identify actual and
example, land acquisition and the potential human rights and environmental
establishment of mining assets can occur adverse impacts, whether in their own
without adequate consultation with business operations or through their
indigenous communities, there may be supply chains. This involves
unequal sharing of benefits, destruction understanding and mapping business
to communities and livelihoods and relationships and supply chains right from
damage to the environment. the source and through all the
transactions, from extraction right up to
"It is important to consider the manufacture and distribution.
exponential increase in demand for
critical raw materials that is expected In contrast to other forms of due diligence
to occur globally and the inevitable that a business might undertake, the
increase in exploitation activity in places main focus is not to identify risks to the
where these materials exist," says business itself, be they financial, legal or
Lindsay. "It is clear that if these risks are reputational, although of course those
not managed properly, then meeting the risks will be assessed in tandem, but to
increased demand could only lead to new identify the impact on people and their
issues and exacerbate those we are human rights and on the environment and
already seeing." for a business to consider what steps it
can take to address and mitigate them
How can the risks be and potentially put in place processes to
remediate them. There is also an
identified and mitigated?
expectation of increased transparency
In many cases, effectively identifying and and disclosure, so that the measures that
addressing these environmental and are being taken by a business must be
human rights risks is not easy, but it has published, usually both in formal
been the focus of recent initiatives on corporate reporting and on the
supply chain due diligence. The EU's company's website. This includes not just
legislative approach, under the draft policies and processes, but also the
Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence impacts that have been identified and the
Directive (CS3D), might be emulated in measures taken to address them. "We
other parts of the world and expectations expect to see much more scrutiny, both
are increasing for businesses to play their from the regulatory authorities within the
role in identifying where these

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BETTING ON BATTERIES: POWERING THE CLEAN ENERGY TRANSITION
EU and also from civil society and other "The Critical Raw Materials Act helps
stakeholders, so that businesses will be implement the EU's Green Deal as it
held to account for the way in which they contributes to securing the resources
undertake their due diligence and react to necessary for green technologies, such
the findings," Lindsay says. as batteries for electric vehicles, and as it
strongly focuses on recycling, which is
Increasing European one of the key priorities under the Green
Deal," says Voland.
regulation – the Critical
Raw Materials Act and the Recycling is also a key topic under the
Batteries Regulation upcoming EU Batteries Regulation, which
To deal with the environmental and social was agreed in December last year. The
impacts of producing batteries and to Regulation aims to make batteries
ensure that the EU has access to a sustainable throughout their entire life
secure and sustainable supply of critical cycle – from the sourcing of materials to
raw materials, the European Commission their collection, recycling and repurposing.
is introducing new legislation. It published It establishes sustainability requirements
its proposal for a Critical Raw Materials for carbon footprint, recycled content,
Act in March 2023, which sets out clear and performance and durability. For
benchmarks to be achieved by 2030. EU example, a carbon footprint declaration
capacities along the supply chain of and label will be obligatory for EV
strategic raw materials must achieve the batteries and minimum levels of
following levels: recovered raw materials, such as cobalt,
lithium and nickel from manufacturing and
• At least 10% of the EU's annual consumer waste, must be reused in new
consumption for extraction. batteries. In addition, portable batteries in
appliances such as mobile phones must
• At least 40% of the EU's annual be designed so that they can be easily
consumption for processing. removed and replaced by consumers.
• At least 15% of the EU's annual These requirements will be introduced
consumption for recycling. gradually from 2024 onwards.

Most significantly, no more than 65% of The Regulation will also establish higher
the EU's annual consumption of each collection targets for end-of-life batteries.
strategic raw material at any relevant For portable batteries, the targets will be
stage of processing should come from a 63% in 2027 and 73% in 2030, while for
single third country. batteries from light vehicles, the target will
be 51% in 2028 and 61% in 2031.
"To achieve these goals, the Act aims to Moreover, the Regulation stipulates that
reduce the administrative burden and all collected batteries must be recycled.
simplify permitting procedures for critical
raw materials projects in the EU. For "Under the Batteries Regulation,
example, selected Strategic Projects will companies placing batteries on the EU
benefit from support for access to finance internal market will have to demonstrate
and shorter permitting time frames – 24 that the materials used for their
months for extraction permits and 12 manufacturing were sourced responsibly.
months for processing and recycling This means that social and environmental
permits," says Thomas Voland, a Partner risks associated with the extraction,
based in Düsseldorf. processing and trading of the raw
materials used for the battery
Further measures include the manufacturing will have to be identified
co-ordination of strategic raw materials and mitigated in line with international
stocks among Member States and a standards. In other words, due diligence
significant increase in recycling activities. assessments need to be conducted in
The Act aims to improve both the the supply chain. The Batteries
recycling of mining waste and of products Regulation establishes similar risk
containing permanent magnets, such as management obligations to the draft
wind energy generators and dishwashers. Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence
Directive," says Voland.

CLIFFORD CHANCE 5
BETTING ON BATTERIES: POWERING THE CLEAN ENERGY TRANSITION
However, it remains to be seen how the "Based on the Atlas figures, of the
Regulation and the Directive will be US$210 billion announced in the US,
aligned with each other. According to the more than 70% has been announced
Council's position on the draft CS3D, the since the start of 2021. This figure speaks
Batteries Regulation should prevail in so to the massive upscaling that is
far as it establishes more specific and happening at the moment," says Peter
comprehensive due diligence Hughes, a Clifford Chance Counsel based
requirements. in Washington, D.C. "While the bulk of the
investment is being made in EV and
The Critical Raw Materials Act does not battery facilities – Atlas has identified 23
explicitly stipulate a sustainability-linked different companies that have each
due diligence requirement. Such already allocated at least US$1 billion of
requirements will follow from the CS3D. investment for a specific EV or EV battery
The CS3D proposal will cover companies plant – this upscaling in the US is
using critical raw materials, ensuring that happening across the value chain,
they adequately address adverse human including mining, processing and
rights and environmental impacts in their battery recycling."
own operations and value chains. For
projects to be implemented in the EU, the What are the
strict environmental and social laws of the
financing risks?
EU and its Member States will apply.
Generally, the risks and issues are similar
Last but not least, the Critical Raw to those in any project or corporate
Materials Act establishes new financing, but there are aspects that are
requirements to enable consumers to unique to EV battery projects. "In addition
make informed choices about the to due diligence considerations, some
environmental footprint of products key issues include equity and sponsor
containing critical raw materials. support, the type of company developing
the project – are we talking about an
automotive original equipment
US/EU EV battery
manufacturer (OEM), a battery
project financings manufacturer, or a joint venture? –
The global demand for EVs has spurred intellectual property, supply and offtake
the development of EV-related arrangements, validation of products and
manufacturing facilities all over the world, recall/warranty risk," says Hughes. This
especially for batteries. China currently raises a number of questions:
dominates the processing of critical
minerals and production of EV batteries, • Source of funds: many EV battery
and the US and Europe are now trying to facilities are massive projects. Where is
catch up. The EU is pushing to onshore the equity coming from and what
its supply chain and production, and the certainty do lenders have that the
US is accelerating its efforts to onshore equity will be contributed as required,
the EV value chain with federal fundi¬ng especially when some of the same
through the Infrastructure Investment and players are pursuing multiple projects
Jobs Act and tax incentives included in across different jurisdictions? Will the
the Inflation Reduction Act. sponsors provide parent guarantees?
Automotive OEMs have large balance
According to the think tank Atlas Public
sheets and may be able to commit
Policy, to date, US$830 billion has been
large amounts of equity upfront leading
invested in vehicle and battery plants and
to an inverted debt to equity ratio,
battery recycling facilities, and that figure
whereas a battery manufacturer might
is expected to rise to over US$1 trillion by
prefer a structure with a more
2030. Atlas attributes approximately
traditional debt to equity ratio.
US$230 billion of the US$830 billion
announced investments to Europe, • Government incentives for building
US$210 billion to the US, US$210 billion factories and creating jobs are critical
to Asia (excluding China) and US$199 to every project.
billion to China.

6 CLIFFORD CHANCE
BETTING ON BATTERIES: POWERING THE CLEAN ENERGY TRANSITION
• Borrower structure: is the borrower a financings for the EV battery market, and
battery manufacturer, or perhaps a joint there are many lenders and investors who
venture between an automotive OEM want to be involved in the first financings.
and a battery manufacturer or That said, lenders are definitely cautious,"
technology partner? What is each says Hughes. "In Europe, lenders do not
partner bringing to the JV (is one yet seem willing to lend without Export
partner committing to the offtake; is Credit Agency (ECA) cover, and the ECAs
the other supplying the critical IP), and appear willing to write large cheques.
what happens if one partner fails? With ECA backing, lenders appear to be
Would another partner be able to more comfortable with traditional debt to
step in, or would the remaining partner equity ratios."
have the rights and capability to
continue the project? In the US, the Department of Energy's
Loan Programs Office is financing the first
• Intellectual Property and battery
transactions across the value chain, from
technology is critical: is the
mining to processing, to EV batteries and
technology subject to export controls
EVs to recycling.
and, if so, in what situations would a JV
partner or licensee not be able to use
He adds: "For EV battery facilities, we
the technology? Can it be part of a
are not seeing fully structured,
lender's security package? Is the IP
"traditional" project finance transactions
subject to litigation or disputes with
(though we are seeing traditional project
other manufacturers? Battery
finance structures for supply chain and
technology will change during the life of
processing facility transactions). Since
the loan. How is the borrower planning
there often are no long-term contracts in
for that, and how will that impact the
place, lenders are considering financing
lender's model?
phases of projects as the business
• Supply and Offtake Contracts: the grows, which limits exposure. If traditional
markets for critical minerals and debt to equity ratios are flipped, lenders
batteries are still evolving. The high might be willing to consider a hybrid
demand for, and fluctuating costs of, corporate-project finance structure or
raw materials means that most supply even a corporate financing, depending
contracts are short term and offtake, on the balance sheet and level of
despite confidence in market parent support."
predictions, is not fixed or guaranteed.
In addition, construction costs Global demand is driving change.
continue to fluctuate due to supply Michelle Williams, a Clifford Chance
chain constraints. partner based in Washington D.C., says
"contracts are being drafted quickly,
• What testing and validation
responding to the race for resources, and
procedures are in place to ensure
new companies and joint ventures are
that products meet specification and
being formed. The flow of goods is
what is the extent of liability associated
increasingly restricted by trade barriers.
with potential recalls or warranty
Given scarcity and competition, those
issues, which are common in the
seeking "most favoured customer" status
automotive industry?
with their suppliers could face antitrust
• What is the risk tolerance to lend to scrutiny, while the rate of expansion will
both entrenched market participants increase the likelihood of construction, IP
and market disruptors in an industry and offtake disputes." The challenges in
known for bankruptcy? the sector must be met alongside ever-
increasing focus on ESG, sanctions and
"With these risks and considerations in
anti-bribery compliance.
mind, we are still in the early days of

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BETTING ON BATTERIES: POWERING THE CLEAN ENERGY TRANSITION
Overview of the PRC battery market
China dominates the global battery supply chain, leading in manufacturing capacity,
mineral extraction, raw materials refining and processing, thanks to the
government's decade-long focus on strategically growing its battery sector.
However, China's battery sector is highly dependent on imports of key materials.
The PRC is estimated to have about 60% of the world's capacity for processing
and refining raw materials for battery production but, at the end of 2020, held only
about 8% of the world's lithium reserves.
"Reliance on imports makes China's battery industry highly vulnerable to price
fluctuations of raw materials. Over the past decade or so, Chinese companies have
pre-emptively been investing overseas with a view to ensuring access to raw
materials supplies," says Vicky Ma, a Partner based in Hong Kong.
It is reported that in 2021 alone, China's mining and battery companies acquired
access to 6.4 million tonnes of lithium reserves and resources. These acquisitions,
which stretch from Africa to South America, have helped safeguard China's access
to lithium resources. However, China's outbound acquisitions and its continuing
hold on overseas natural resources are likely to face increasing scrutiny from
governments, whilst geopolitical tensions continue to test the fragility of international
supply chains.
China announced in March that it will strengthen domestic exploration and
development of scarce and strategically important mineral resources and will roll out
a number of measures to attract more private capital within the PRC. "It remains to
be seen how these measures may help alleviate China's dependence on raw
materials imports, if at all," says Ma.

Overcapacity issues
Another challenge facing China's battery sector is production overcapacity.
According to some publicly available data, China's battery production capacity will
soon be three times greater than demand from domestic EV makers, so producers
will need to look abroad for customers. However, notwithstanding that China's
battery technology may be more advanced in some regards, there may be a
perception that China's battery supply chain is less developed when it comes to
ESG regulations and standards, which are key considerations for most overseas car
manufacturers.

In response, in November 2022, the PRC's Ministry of Industry and Information


Technology and The State Administration of Market Regulation jointly released a
notice which contains a number of recommendations for rebalancing China's
battery supply chains. "Whilst the Notice itself is not a piece of regulation and falls
short of being a policy statement, it serves as a strong signal to various local
authorities and industry players to actively take action to address the supply chain
issues," says Ma.

The Notice contains a section which focuses on the need to improve the overall
quality of the battery sector, and to strengthen quality control. Local authorities are
encouraged to investigate and punish those manufacturers whose products fail to
meet the mandatory national quality standards. China has also established a
traceability management system for batteries used in EVs, designed to incentivise
Chinese manufacturers to improve the quality of Chinese battery production.

"It looks likely that Chinese manufacturers will up their game and local authorities
will take action to strengthen the regulatory environment with a view to catching up
with the global ESG standards," says Ma.

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BETTING ON BATTERIES: POWERING THE CLEAN ENERGY TRANSITION
What are the opportunities?
Despite the economic downturn, Chinese companies remain active in investing in an
upstream presence in the global market – with a view to securing resources for EVs
and China's renewable industry. "We are seeing Chinese companies entering into
joint ventures with international car manufacturers to participate in mining projects in
Southeast Asia (for example in Indonesia) and also refining projects inside China. On
the one hand, some joint ventures are aimed at helping international car
manufacturers secure their supply chains. On the other hand, some joint ventures
help address China's security of supply risks as well as improve the ESG standards
for China's own production," says Ma.

However, at China's annual parliament meeting, which took place in March,


President Xi told a leading Chinese battery manufacturer that he had mixed feelings
about its status as the world's largest battery maker due to the geopolitical risks.
According to news reports, President Xi said that Chinese battery manufacturers
should avoid marching ahead alone in an invincible fashion, only to be caught out
by others and fail in the end, noting also that companies should balance
development against security. "It remains to be seen what, if anything, the PRC
government may do to balance supply and demand issues in the PRC battery
sector and to mitigate the risk of overcapacity," Ma says.

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BETTING ON BATTERIES: POWERING THE CLEAN ENERGY TRANSITION
CONTACTS

Peter Hughes Rae Lindsay Vicky Ma


Counsel Partner Partner
Washington, D.C. London Hong Kong
T: +1 202 912 5135 T: +44 207006 8622 T: +852 2825 8995
E: peterc.hughes@ E: rae.lindsay@ E: vicky.ma@
cliffordchance.com cliffordchance.com cliffordchance.com

James Pay Thomas Voland Michelle Williams


Partner Partner Partner
London Düsseldorf Washington, D.C.
T: +44 207006 2625 T: +49 211 4355 5642 T: +1 202 912 5011
E: james.pay@ E: thomas.voland@ E: michelle.williams@
cliffordchance.com cliffordchance.com cliffordchance.com

CLIFFORD CHANCE 10
BETTING ON BATTERIES: POWERING THE CLEAN ENERGY TRANSITION
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