b.

Forecast September sales volume using each of the following:

i. The naive approach

Based on the stable nature of the data presented in the graph, the forecast for the month of
September is derived by considering the most recent value in the series, valued at 20,000.

ii. A five-month moving average

Forecast = April Sales + May Sales + June Sales + July Sales + August Sales
5
Forecast = 15,000+20,000+18,000+22,000+20,000
5
Forecast = 19,000

iii. A weighted average using .60 for August, .30 for July, and .10 for June

Forecast = (0.60 x 20,000 units) +(0 .30 x 22,000 units) + (0.10 x 18,000 units)

Forecast = 20,400 units

iv. Exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant equal to .20, assuming a a

March forecast of 19(000)

Month Calculations Prediction

March 19,000 units + .20 (18,000 units - 19,000 units) 18,800 units

April 18,800 units + .20 (15,000 units - 18,800 units) 18,040 units

May 18,040 units + .20 (20,000 units - 18,040 units) 18,432 units

June 18,432 units + .20 (18,000 units - 18,432 units) 18,345 units

July 18,345 units + .20 (22,000 units - 18,345 units) 19,070 units

August 19,070 units + .20 (20,000 units - 19,070 units) 19,256 units