National Scan, Inc., sells radio frequency inventory tags.

Monthly sales for a seven-month period were as follows:

Month Sales (000 units) (a) Plot the monthly data on a sheet of graph paper.
Feb 19 (b) Forecast september sales volume using each of the following:
Mar 18 (1) The naïve approach
Apr 15 (2) A five month moving average
May 20 (3) A weighted average using 0,60 for august, 0,30 for july, and 0,10 for ju
Jun 18 (4) Exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant equal to 0,20 assum
Jul 22 a March forecast of 19(000)
Aug 20 (5) A Linear trend equation
(c) Which method seems least appropriate? Why? (hint: refer to your plot fro
(d) What does use of the term sales rather than demand presume?

a) b) NAIVE METHOD
Sales (000 units) Month
25 Feb
Mar
20 Apr
May
15 Jun
Jul
10 Aug
Sep
5

0
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHI
Month
c) yang kurang tepat adalah trend equation, karena ketika kita plot Feb
datanya, variasi di sekitar average tidak ada trend. Mar
Apr
d) karena akan di forecast dalam soal ini adalah berapa yang terjual May
perbulannya, atau berapa sales perbulan, sehingga yang digunakan Jun
adalah sales. Jul
Aug
Sep
period were as follows:

ach of the following:

gust, 0,30 for july, and 0,10 for june

ing constant equal to 0,20 assuming

Why? (hint: refer to your plot from part a)

han demand presume?

NAIVE METHOD MOVING AVERAGE (5 PERIODS) WEIGHTED MOVING AVERA

Sales (000 units) Forecast Month Sales (000 units) Forecast Month
19 Feb 19 Feb
18 19 Mar 18 Mar
15 18 Apr 15 Apr
20 15 May 20 May
18 20 Jun 18 Jun
22 18 Jul 22 18.00 Jul
20 22 Aug 20 18.60 Aug
20 Sep 19.00 Sep

EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING TREND EQUATION

Sales (000 units) Forecast Month Sales (000 units) Sales (000 unit
19 Feb 19 25
18 19.00 Mar 18
15 18.80 Apr 15 20 20
f(x) = 0.5 x + 16.8571428571429
19
20 18.04 May 20 18
18 18.43 Jun 18 15 15
22 18.35 Jul 22
20 19.08 Aug 20 10
19.26 Sep 20.857
5

0
Feb Mar Apr May
GHTED MOVING AVERAGE
Sales (000 units)
19
18
15
20
18
22
20
20.4

Sales (000 units)

22
20 20
571428571429
18

15

Apr May Jun Jul Aug

A dry cleaner uses exponential smoothing to forecast equipment usage at its main plant. August usage was
forecasted to be 88% of capacity; actul usage was 89,6% of capacity. A smoothing constant of 0,1 is used.
a) Prepare a forecast for september
b) Assuming actual september usage of 92%, prepare a forecast for october usage.

a) Period Actual (%) Forecasted (%)

Aug 89.60 88.00
Sep 88.16

b) Period Actual (%) Forecasted (%)

Aug 89.60 88.00
Sep 92.00 88.16
Oct 88.54
ust usage was
f 0,1 is used.
New car sales for a dealer in Cook County, Illinois, for the past year are shown in the following table,
along with monthly indexes (seasonal relatives), which are supplied to the dealer by the regional distributor.

Month Units Sold Index (a) Plot the data. Does there seem to be a trend?
Jan 640 0.80 (b) Deseasonalize car sales
Feb 648 0.80 (c) Plot the deseasonalized data on the same graph as the original data.
Mar 630 0.70 comment on the two graphs.
Apr 761 0.94 (d) Assuming no proactive approach on the part of management,
May 735 0.89 discuss (no calculations necessary) how you would forecast sales for
Jun 850 1.00 the first three months of the next year.
Jul 765 0.90 (e) What action might management consider based on your findings in part b
Aug 805 1.15
Sep 840 1.20
Oct 828 1.20
Nov 840 1.25
Dec 800 1.25

a) Units Sold b)
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

c) d)
Deseasonalized
Sales
1200.00

1000.00

800.00

600.00

400.00

200.00

0.00
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
grafik - grafik diatas dapat dilihat sebelum melakukan deseasonalized sales
terlihat tidak terlalu berfluktuasi, tetapi yang sudah mengalami
deseasonalized terlihat lebih berfluktuasi.
al distributor.

graph as the original data.

art of management,
u would forecast sales for

based on your findings in part b?

Quarter Deseasonalized
Periode Quarter Units Slold Relative Sales
Jan 1 640 1.20 533.33
Feb 2 648 1.10 589.09
Mar 3 630 0.75 840.00
Apr 4 761 0.95 801.05
May 1 735 1.20 612.50
Jun 2 850 1.10 772.73
Jul 3 765 0.75 1020.00
Aug 4 805 0.95 847.37
Sep 1 840 1.20 700.00
Oct 2 828 1.10 752.73
Nov 3 840 0.75 1120.00
Dec 4 800 0.95 842.11

Jan 1 837.89 1.20 698.25

Feb 2 712.21 1.10 647.46
Mar 3 653.94 0.75 871.92
The following data were collected during a study of consumer buying patterns:

Observation x y a) Plot the data

1 15 74 b) Obtain a linear regression line for the data
2 25 80 c) What percentage of the variation is explained by the regression li
3 40 84 d) Use the equation determined in part b to pedict the expected val
4 32 81
5 51 96 a) 120
6 47 95
7 30 83 100
8 18 78 f(x) = 0.583788706739527 x + 66.3333333333333
90
88
9 14 70 85 83 81 84
80 78 80
10 15 72 74
72
70
11 22 85
60
12 24 88
13 33 90
40

20

0
10 15 20 25 30 35 40

b) Observation x y
1 15 74
2 25 80
3 40 84
4 32 81
5 51 96
6 47 95
7 30 83
8 18 78
9 14 70
10 15 72
11 22 85
12 24 88
13 33 90

forecast di periode 0 = 66.333

slope = 0.5838
e for the data
ation is explained by the regression line?
d in part b to pedict the expected value of y for x = 41.

95 96
6739527 x + 66.3333333333333
90
88
85 83 81 84
80

25 30 35 40 45 50 55

Forecast Error d) y 90.27

66.92 7.08
67.50 12.50 c) observation x-xm y-ym (x-xm)^2 (y-ym)^2
68.08 15.92 1 -13.15 -8.77 173.02 76.90
68.67 12.33 2 -3.15 -2.77 9.95 7.67
69.25 26.75 3 11.85 1.23 140.33 1.51
69.84 25.16 4 3.85 -1.77 14.79 3.13
70.42 12.58 5 22.85 13.23 521.95 175.05
71.00 7.00 6 18.85 12.23 355.18 149.59
71.59 -1.59 7 1.85 0.23 3.41 0.05
72.17 -0.17 8 -10.15 -4.77 103.10 22.75
72.75 12.25 9 -14.15 -12.77 200.33 163.05
73.34 14.66 10 -13.15 -10.77 173.02 115.98
73.92 16.08 11 -6.15 2.23 37.87 4.98
12 -4.15 5.23 17.25 27.36
13 4.85 7.23 23.49 52.28

mean (X) 28.15

mean (Y) 82.77

Coefficient of determination 0.87

itu berarti 87% dari variasi di ideal weights di jelaskan dengan model regresi.
 (x-xm)*(y-ym)
115.35
8.73
14.58
-6.80
302.27
230.50
0.43
48.43
180.73
141.66
-13.73
-21.73
35.04

laskan dengan model regresi.