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Uncertainty
• Error is the difference between the true or actual value and the
MABE 345 value resulting from a measurement.
However, if we knew the true value we wouldn’t need to
Lecture #10 & 11 measure it, so how do we find the error?

Chapter 5 • Probable Error or Uncertainty is an estimate of the error in a

measurement.
Uncertainty Analysis
• Two Categories of Error
> Precision
> Bias

Precision

• Data scatter from repeated measurements made under

fixed operating conditions.
• Caused by random fluctuations in environmental
conditions, test equipment, etc.
• Probable estimates of the precision are made using
statistical analysis.
Precision interval of x t S ν ,P x

Precision interval in mean of x Sx

tν ,P
N
Bias
• Constant error in repeated measurements made under
fixed conditions.
• Careful calibration removes most, but not all, bias error.
Table 5.1 from “Theory and Design for Mechanical Engineers” R. Figliola and D. Beasley
• Instrumentation Drift.

Note – Unless specified, all uncertainty error are assumed to be

at 95% confidence. tν,95%

Design-Stage Uncertainty
• No data has been taken so we don’t know the precision.
• We can find the Root-Sum error for the instrument:

uC = ± e12 + e22 + e32 + ...

Figure from www.thomasnet.com

• Then, the Design-Stage Uncertainty becomes:

ud = u02 + eC2
uC = Instrument Errors
u0 = Interpolation Error (Quantization)
½ the smallest division - analog Figure from www.balances.com

smallest digital output - digital

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Bias Error Propagation Determination of the slope for non-linear behavior.

• How do we find the resultant error when a functional
relation is used?
Ex P
ρ= 2
q = 12 ρV
RT
• It is hard to tell exactly what impact the individual errors
will have.
• To evaluate them we need to know the functional
relation and then the error propagation can be found
from: u = ( slope)u
y x

 dy 
u y =   ux
 dx  x
- slope is evaluated at the mean point. Figure 5.3 from “Theory and Design for Mechanical Engineers” R. Figliola and D. Beasley

Bias Error Propagation Example

• Kline-McClintock Method combines error terms from
functional relations.
• If we have a functional relationship as:
y = f ( x1 , x2 , x3 ,...)
• Then the uncertainty, or bias error, can be found from:
u y = ± ( ∂∂xy1 u x1 )2 + ( ∂∂xy2 u x2 )2 + ( ∂∂xy3 u x3 )2 + ...
u y = ± ( ∂∂xy1 u x1 )2 + ( ∂∂xy2 u x2 )2 + ( ∂∂xy3 u x3 )2 + ...
• If we have a functional relationship as:
q = 12 ρV 2
• Our equation can be written as:
uq = ± ( ∂∂ρq u ρ ) 2 + ( ∂∂Vq uV ) 2
• Then, the uncertainty in q becomes:

uq = ± ( 12 V 2u ρ ) 2 + ( ρVuV ) 2

Bias & Precision Error Propagation

The actual uncertainty is a combination of the Bias and

Precision errors.
u x = ± B 2 + (tν ,95 P )
2

where
B = ± B12 + B22 + B32 + ...
P = ± P12 + P22 + P32 + ...
and  K 2
2

 ∑ Pk 
ν =  Kk =1 4
 Pk 
∑  
k =1  ν xi 