a/ p = population proportion custumers who paid by card

80
Point estimate pob   80%
100

pq
b/ SD 
n

pob qob 0.8 * 0.2

then SDob    0.04
n 100
c/ answer =  pob  E; pob  E 

we must find E?
E  z /2 .SD  1.96 * 0.04  7.84%

Answer = (72.16%;87.84%)

d/

§ Introduction to Hypothesis Testing

(kiểm định giả thuyết)
Null and Alternative Hypothesis

Null hypothesis : H 0 :   1.9m (giả thuyết kiểm định)

Alternative hypothesis: H 1 :   1.9 m (giả thuyết đối)

Two- Tail Hypothesis Test (kiểm định 2 đuôi- 2 phía-2 bên)
Procedure for Testing a Hypothesis
1) State the Null Hypothesis H 0 and the Alternative Hypothesis H1 .
2) Suppose H0 true: H 0 :   0  1.9m .

X ob  0
3) Find Z ob 

n
Conlusion:

1/ if zob = rare, then reject H0. Accept H1.

2/ if zob = not rare, then accept H0.

Why???

Remember that X  data all of x ob

 2 
Then X  N   ;  , normalization X
 n 

X 
Consider Z  N  0;1 but   0 then

n

X   X  0 X  1.9
Z    N  0;1
  
n n n

Two-Tail Hypothesis Test

Reject Ho Reject Ho

Do Not Reject Ho
 X ob  1.9
Consider a sample: Z ob 

n
If zob W   ;  z /2    z /2 ;   , we conclusion zob = rare, then sample is
happen rare. Imply that the suppose is not true. Must accept H1. Reject H0.

If zob W   ;  z /2    z /2 ;   : accept H0.

Example
Suppose I am looking at how many hours, this university’s students spend studying each day.
Let’s say that my hypothesis is that students study for an average of 4.0 hours a day.
In other words, I want to test my belief that that the population mean is equal to 4.0 hours per
day. I do so by gathering a sample of students who come to this university and calculate the
average number of hours they spend studying each day. Suppose the sample average is 4.2
hours per day. The hypothesis test can then tell me whether or not 4.2 hours is significantly
different from 4.0 hours per day or if the difference is merely due to chance.
Assuming I know the standard deviation of the population is 0.5 hours, and my sample size to
test the hypothesis, n, is 30 students.
  the average amount of hours spent studying
The hypothesis

H 0 :   4.0
H1 :   4.0
Suppose H0 true.

X ob  0 4.2  4
Z ob    2.19
 0.5
n 30
W 5%   ; 1.96   1.96;   = region of reject (miền bác bỏ).

Z ob  2.19 W   ; 1.96   1.96;  

Conlusion : reject H0, accept H1.
Example 2.
Formulate the hypothesis statement for the following claim: “The average adult drinks 1.7
cups of coffee per day”. A sample of 35 adults drank an average of 1.95 cups per day.
Assume the population standard deviation is 0.5 cups. Using  = 0.10, test your hypothesis.
What is your conclusion?
Hypothesis testing:
H0: mean = 1.7 cups

H1: mean  1.7

Suppose H0 true.

X  1.7
Test hypothesis: Z  N  0;1 (tiêu chuẩn kiểm định)

n
X ob  0 1.95  1.7
X ob  1.95  Z ob    2.96
 0.5
n 35
z /2  z5%  1.645
Z ob W   ; 1.645   1.645;  
Imply that reject H0. Accept H1.
§ One-Tail Hypothesis Test (right test)

H 0 :   0
H 1 :   0
One-Tail Hypothesis Test

Reject Ho

Do Not Reject Ho

0
Mean Increase in Test Score
Suppose H0 true.

X   X  0
Z   N  0;1
 
n n
X ob  0
Consider a sample: Z ob 

n
If zob  W   z ;   , we conclusion zob = rare, then sample is happen rare. Imply that
the suppose is not true. Must accept H1.
If zob W  z ;   : accept H0.
Similar for One-Tail Hypothesis Test (left test)

H 0 :   0
H1 :    0

Suppose H0 true.

X   X  0
Z   N  0;1
 
n n
X ob  0
Consider a sample: Z ob 

n
If zob  W   ;  z  , we conclusion zob = rare, then sample is happen rare. Imply
that the suppose is not true. Must accept H1.

If zob  W : accept H0.

Example 3:
Formulate the hypothesis statement for the following claim: “The average age of customers is
less than 40 years old”. A sample of 50 customers had an average age of 38.7 years. Assume
the population standard deviation is 12.5 years. Using  =0.05, test your hypothesis. What is
your conclusion?
H0: mean = 40

H1: mean  40 (H1= “The average age of customers is less than 40 years old”)
Suppose H0 true.
 X ob  0 38.7  40
Consider a sample: Z ob    0.74
 12.5
n 50

W   ; 1.645 = reject region (miền bác bỏ H0).

zob  W   ; 1.645  . conclusion do not reject H0.

Claim “The average age of customers is less than 40 years old” not true.

Example 4.
Formulate the hypothesis statement for the following claim: “The average life of our light
bulbs is more than 1,000 hours”. A sample of 32 light bulbs had an average life of 1,190
hours. Assume the population standard deviation is 325 hours. Using  = 0.02, test your
hypothesis. What is your conclusion?
H0: mean = 1000 h
H1: mean > 1000 h