Class 5 ESEI Maths L5 Hypothesis Testing

Class 5
Hypothesis
Testing
A Real Life Problem
The light bulbs manufactured by Bright Lights
are designed to last for 1000 hours on average.
How can the company be sure that the average
lifetime of a large batch of bulbs really is 1000
hours?
2
Confidence Intervals
You could take a sample of lightbulbs, find their
mean lifetime and construct a confidence
interval. If the interval contains 1000 hours, then
you could assume that the true mean is 1000
hours.
OR…
3
Hypothesis Testing with a Sample
The other approach would be:
Hypothesis Testing
Whereas, Confidence intervals just state a range of values
where a point estimate may lie.
Hypothesis testing compares a sample (test) statistic to the
boundaries (called the critical region) of the population
parameters.
We begin by formulating a hypothesis about the relationship
between the statistic and the parameter and we conclude
by deciding whether to reject this hypothesis or not.
4
Hypothesis Testing – The Steps
A. State the null hypothesis denoted by H 0

B. State the alternative hypothesis denoted by H1
C. Calculate the test statistic (z)
D. Work out the critical value (rejection region)
E. State the conclusion
Let’s look at steps A and B

Breakdown of the Steps - General
Step A:
The null hypothesis is denoted by: H 0 :   0
Where µ is the population mean
Step B:
The alternative hypothesis is denoted by:
(two-tailed test) H1 :    0
H1 :    0
(one-tailed tests) H :   
1 0
depending on the nature of the problem
Let’s look at an example:

Hypothesis Testing – Example1
The distribution of the lifetime of all bulbs made by Bright lights
is normal and the standard deviation of the population is known
to be 120 hours. A sample of 30 bulbs were tested and the mean
lifetime was found to be 1100 hours. Is this consistent, at the 5%
level of significance, with the supposed true mean of 1000
hours? (Write this problem into your books)
Step A: What is the null hypothesis?

The distribution of the lifetime of all bulbs made by Bright lights
is normal and the standard deviation of the population is known
to be 120 hours. A sample of 30 bulbs were tested and the mean
level of significance, with the supposed true mean of 1000
hours? (Write this problem into your books)

0 :   1000
Hhours
Step B: Is this a one-tailed or a two-tailed test?
What is the alternative hypothesis?
Two-tailed Tests
The first form of the alternative hypothesis is used for a two-
tailed test and is used when you have no reason to suppose that
the true mean could be either greater than or less than the value
given in the null hypothesis.
It is denoted by H1 :    0
Two-tailed test at the

5% significance level
The distribution of the lifetime of all bulbs made by Bright lights is normal and the
standard deviation of the population is known to be 120 hours. A sample of 30
bulbs were tested and the mean lifetime was found to be 1100 hours. Is this
consistent, at the 5% level of significance, with the supposed true mean of 1000
hours?
H 0 :   1000
hours
Step B: Is this a one-tailed or a two-tailed test?
Since we have no reason to suppose that the true mean could be
either greater than or less than the value given in the null
hypothesis, we will perform a two-tailed test.
What is the alternative hypothesis? H :   1000
1
The alternative hypothesis is therefore: hours
The distribution of the lifetime of all bulbs made by Bright lights is
normal and the standard deviation of the population is known to
be 120 hours. A sample of 30 bulbs were tested and the mean
level of significance, with the supposed true mean of 1000 hours?
Step C: Calculate the test statistic (z)
The formula for z is:
x  0
Z
Where is…
x s
is… 0 n
s is…
and n is…
What do the symbols stand for?

Step C:
Calculate the test statistic (z)
x  0
The formula for z is: Z 
s
n
Where isxthe sample mean,
is the 0population mean (supposed)
s is the standard deviation
and n is the sample size
Complete the formula with the information that you have
normal and the standard deviation of the population is known to
be 120 hours. A sample of 30 bulbs were tested and the mean
level of significance, with the supposed true mean of 1000 hours?
The formula for z is: x  0
Z
s
Where is…
x n
is… 0
s is…
and n is…
Breakdown of the Steps - Example
normal and the standard deviation of the population is known to be
120 hours. A sample of 30 bulbs were tested and the mean lifetime
was found to be 1100 hours. Is this consistent, at the 5% level of
significance, with the supposed true mean of 1000 hours?
x  0
Z 
s
n
x   0 1100  1000
Z 
s 120
n 30
x   0 1100  1000
Z 
s 120
n 30
100

21.9089
 4.56
standard deviation of the population is known to be 120 hours. A sample of 30 bulbs
were tested and the mean lifetime was found to be 1100 hours. Is this consistent, at
the 5% level of significance, with the supposed true mean of 1000 hours?
Step D: Work out the critical value (rejection region)
At the 5% significance level the critical value is: Go to Student t
Distribution
Tables:
At the 5% significance level the critical value is: ±1.96
Breakdown of the Steps - General
Step E: State the conclusion
If the test statistic lies in the rejection region, then the null hypothesis, H 0 , is
rejected. There is enough evidence to conclude/suggest/support the claim
that....
If the test statistic lies between the two critical values then the null
hypothesis, H 0 , is not rejected. There is no evidence to suggest/conclude
that…
Step E: Conclusion
Since the test value (4.56) lies in the critical region, we reject H 0
There is sufficient evidence to conclude that there has been a
change in the mean lifetime of light bulbs.
Lightbulb Solution
The distribution of the lifetime of all bulbs made by Bright lights is normal and the standard
deviation of the population is known to be 120 hours. A sample of 30 bulbs were tested and the
mean lifetime was found to be 1100 hours. Is this consistent, at the 5% level of significance, with
the supposed true mean of 1000 hours?
Step A: H 0 :   1000
Step B: H1 :   1000
Step C: Calculate the test statistic (z): x   0 1100  1000
Z 
s 120
n 30
100

21.9089
 4.56
Step E: Since the test value lies in the critical region, we reject H
0
There is sufficient evidence to conclude that there has been a change in the mean
lifetime of light bulbs.
Practice Question – Factory Components
A component produced for the electrical
industry is supposed to have a mean outside
diameter of 10cm. The mean diameter of a
sample of 36 components taken from today’s
output is 9.94cm with a standard deviation of
0.018cm. Does this suggest, at the 1% level of
significance, that the production process is not
meeting the specifications?
Practice Question – Factory Component
A component produced for the electrical industry is supposed to have a mean outside
diameter of 10cm. The mean diameter of a sample of 36 components taken from today’s
output is 9.94cm with a standard deviation of 0.018cm. Does this suggest, at the 1% level
of significance, that the production process is not meeting the specifications?
Step A: H 0 :  
Step B: H1 : 
Practice Question – Factory Component
Step A: H 0 :   10
Step B: H1 :   10
Step C: Calculate the test statistic (z): x  0

Z 
s
n
Work out values for x, 0, s and n

Practise Question – Factory Component
Step A: H 0 :   10
Step B: H1 :   10
Step C: Calculate the test statistic (z): x  0 9.94  10
Z 
s 0.018
n 36
 0.06

0.003
 20
Step A: H 0 :   10
Step B: H1 :   10
Z 
s 0.018
n 36
 0.06

0.003
 20
Step E:
Step A: H 0 :   10
Step B: H1 :   10
Z 
s 0.018
n 36
 0.06

0.003
 20
Step E: Since the test value lies in the critical region, we reject H at the 1%
0
level of significance. There is very strong evidence to conclude that the
production process is not meeting specifications.
An Example of a One Tailed Test
Fuel Consumption
The mean fuel consumption for a particular make of
car is known to be 33 mpg with a standard deviation
of 5.7 mpg. A modification to this car has been made
that should reduce fuel consumption. 35 cars are
fitted with this device and their fuel consumption is
recorded over 12 months. At the end of this period
the mean fuel consumption of the 35 cars is found to
be 34.8mpg. Is there any evidence, at the 5% level of
significance, that the fuel consumption has been
improved?
Hypothesis Testing – The Steps
A. State the null hypothesis denoted by H 0

B. State the alternative hypothesis denoted by H1
C. Calculate the test statistic (z)
D. Work out the critical value (rejection region)
E. State the conclusion
The mean fuel consumption for a particular make of car is known to
be 33 mpg with a standard deviation of 5.7 mpg. A modification to
this car has been made that should reduce fuel consumption. 35 cars
are fitted with this device and their fuel consumption is recorded over
12 months. At the end of this period the mean fuel consumption of
the 35 cars is found to be 34.8mpg. Is there any evidence, at the 5%
level of significance, that the fuel consumption has been improved?
H0 :  
Step A:
H1 : 
Step B:
Step C: Calculate the test statistic (z):

H0 :  
Step A: 33mpg
H1 : 
Step B:

Step A: H 0 :   33 mpg
Step B: H1 : mpg
 33
x  0
Step C: Calculate the test statistic (z): Z  
s
n
the 35 cars is found to be 34.8 mpg. Is there any evidence, at the 5%
Step A: H 0 :   33 mpg
Step B: H1 : mpg
 33
x   0 34.8  33.0
Z 
Step C: Calculate the test statistic (z): s 5.7
n 35
Step A: H 0 :   33 mpg
Step B: H1 :  mpg
33
Step C: Calculate the test statistic (z): Z

x   0 34.8  33.0

s 5.7
n 35
1.8

0.9635
 1.868
One-Tailed Tests
In the one tailed test, the alternative hypothesis is either of the
‘less than’ or ‘more than’ kind. There is only one critical value.
It is denoted by H :   x H :  x
1 1
One tailed test at the 5% significance level

Step A: H 0 :   33 mpg
Step B: H1 :  mpg
33
x   0 34.8  33.0
Z 
Step C: Calculate the test statistic (z): s 5.7
n 35
1.8

0.9635
 1.868

At the 5% significance level the critical value is: 1.645
Step E:
Always draw a diagram for hypothesis test questions.

Step A: H 0 :   33 mpg
  33
Step B: H1 :mpg
x   0 34.8  33.0
Step C: Calculate the test statistic (z): Z 
s 5.7
n 35
1.8

0.9635
 1.868

At the 5% significance level the critical value is: 1.645
Step E: Since the test value lies in the critical region, we reject H0
There is sufficient evidence to conclude that the modification to this
car appears to have reduced fuel consumption.
Always draw a diagram for hypothesis test questions.
Small Sample Test for a
Population Mean
For sample sizes that are less than 30 we use a slightly
different formula. As in the case of confidence intervals, it
is necessary to assume that the population is normal and
to use the t-distribution instead of the normal distribution.
The formula is: x
t 0
s
n
And we follow the same steps as with the large sample
test for a population mean
An Example of a Small Sample Test for a
Population Mean
A tomato grower has developed a new variety of tomato.
This variety is supposed to give good crops without the need
for a greenhouse. One of the supposed attributes of this
tomato is that the average yield per plant is at least 4kg of
fruit. A gardening magazine decides to test his claim and
grows 8 plants in controlled conditions. The yield from these
8 plants has a mean of 3.74 kg of tomatoes and a standard
deviation of 0.8466.
Does this data support the grower’s claim at the 5% level of
significance? (It can be assumed that the yield per plant is
normally distributed.)
Population Mean
A tomato grower has developed a new variety of tomato. This variety is supposed to
give good crops without the need for a greenhouse. One of the supposed attributes of
this tomato is that the average yield per plant is at least 4kg of fruit. A gardening
magazine decides to test his claim and grows 8 plants in controlled conditions. The
yield from these 8 plants has a mean of 3.74 kg of tomatoes and a standard deviation
of 0.8466.
Does this data support the grower’s claim at the 5% level of significance?
Step A: H0 :  
Step B:
H1 : 
Population Mean
of 0.8466.
Step A: H 0 :   4kg
Step B: H1 :   4kg
This is a one-tailed test since the claim is that the yield should be at least 4kg.
The alternative hypothesis is less than 4kg, because the gardening magazine is
attempting to disprove the claim.
Population Mean
of 0.8466.
Step A: H 0 :   4kg
x  0
Step C: Calculate the test statistic (t): t 
s
n
Population Mean
Step A: H 0 :   4kg
Step C: Calculate the test statistic (t):

x  0 3.74  4
t 
s 0.8466
n 8

Population Mean
Step A: H 0 :   4kg
Step C: Calculate the test statistic (t): x  0 3.74  4

t 
s 0.8466
n 8
 0.26

0.2993
 0.869
Population Mean
Step A: H 0 :   4kg
x  0 3.74  4
Step C: Calculate the test statistic (t): t
s

0.8466
n 8
 0.26

0.2993
 0.869

At the 5% significance level, with 7 degrees of freedom,
the critical value is: H0
Population Mean
Step A: H 0 :   4kg
x  0 3.74  4
s

0.8466
n 8
 0.26

0.2993
 0.869

the critical value is: -1.846 H0
Step E: Conclusion -
Population Mean
Step A: H 0 :   4kg
x  0 3.74  4
s

0.8466
n 8
 0.26

0.2993
 0.869

the critical value is: -1.8946 H0
Step E: Since the test value doesn’t fall in the critical region, we do not reject
H0
There isn’t enough evidence to conclude the average yield per plant isn’t at least 4kg.
(In other words, it hasn’t been possible to disprove the grower’s claim).
Practice Exercise – Household Chores
A study claims that all adults spend an average of more
than 14 hours on chores during a week. A researcher
wanted to check if this claim is true. A random sample
of 15 adults taken by this researcher showed that these
adults spend on average 14.89 hours on chores during
the week, with a standard deviation of 2.8 hours.
Test the claim that adults spend more than 14 hours on
chores during the week. Use   0.01
Do this exercise on your own following the 5 steps

Practice Exercise – Household Chores
Step A: H 0 :   14hrs
Step B: H1 :   14hrs
Step C: Calculate the test statistic (t): t  x  0  14.89  14
s 2.8
n 15
0.89

0.72296
 1.231

the critical value is: t = 2.624
Step E: Since the test value doesn’t fall in the critical region, we do not reject
H0
There isn’t enough evidence to conclude that adults spend more than 14 hours on
chores during the week.
Hypothesis Tests Involving Two Population
Means
The tests we have looked at so far are for a single
sample. In many situations we may have collected two
samples and we want to test to see if the two
populations means are the same. As in the single
sample case we have different tests for large and small
samples.
Means – Large Samples
Step A: The null hypothesis is denoted by: H 0 : 1   2  0
Step B: The alternative hypothesis is denoted by:
(two : 1  test)
H1 tailed 2  0
H1 : 1   2
(one
H1 tailed
: 1  tests)
2
Step C: Calculate the test statistic (z): Z  x1  x2
s12 s22

n1 n2
Where x  x is the difference the difference between the means
1 2

Step E: Conclusion
Large Sample Tests for Two
Population Means - Example
A high street store was interested in discovering
whether credit card customers spent more or less than
cash customers. A random sample of 50 credit card
customers were found to have spent $55.30 on a
average with a standard deviation of $18.45, while a
random sample of 40 cash customers were found to
have spent $52.75 on average with a standard deviation
of $17.22. Is there any evidence at the 5% significance
level that there is any difference between the mean
amounts spent by the two types of customers?
Step A: H 0 : 1   2  0
Step B: H1 : 1   2  0
Step A: H 0 : 1   2  0
Step B: H1 : 1   2  0
x1  x2
Z 2 2

s s
1
 2
n1 n2
Step A: H 0 : 1   2  0
Step B: H1 : 1   2  0
x1  x2 55.30  52.75
Z 2 2
 2 2

s s 18.45 17.22
1
 2

n1 n2 50 40
Step A: H 0 : 1   2  0
Step B: H1 : 1   2  0
x1  x2 55.30  52.75 2.55
Z    0.676
s2
s 2 18.452 17.22 2
3.7711
1
 2 
n1 n2 50 40
Step D: Work out the critical value

Step A: H 0 : 1   2  0
Step B: H1 : 1   2  0
x1  x2 55.30  52.75 2.55
Z    0.676
s2
s 2 18.452 17.22 2
3.7711
1
 2 
n1 n2 50 40

At the 5% significance level the critical value is
Step A: H 0 : 1   2  0
Step B: H1 : 1   2  0
x1  x2 55.30  52.75 2.55
Z    0.676
2
s s 2
18.452 17.22 2
3.7711
1
 2

n1 n2 50 40

Step E: Conclusion
Step A: H 0 : 1   2  0
Step B: H 1 : 1   2  0
x1  x2 55.30  52.75 2.55
Z    0.676
s 2
s 2 18.452 17.22 2
3.7711

1 2 
n1 n2 50 40
At the 5% significance level the critical value is:
±1.96
Step E: Conclusion
Since the test statistic does not fall in the rejection region, we do not reject .
H0
There is no evidence to suggest that credit card customers spend more or less
than cash customers.
Means – Small Samples
Step A: The null hypothesis is denoted by: H 0 : 1   2  0
Step B: The alternative hypothesis is denoted by:
(two tailed test) H1 : 1   2  0
H1 : 1   2
(one tailed tests) H1 : 1   2
Step C: Calculate the test statistic (t): T  x1  x2
1 1
Sp 
(pooled standard deviation)
2 2
n1 n2
(n  1) s1  (n2  1) s2
Where: S p2  1
n1  n2  2
Step D: Work out the critical value (rejection region) at (n1  n2 of

degrees  2)
freedom.
Step E: Conclusion
Small Sample Tests for Two
Population Means – An Example
A health magazine has decided to test the claim of the makers of
a new slimming pill that has just come on the market. The
company claims that the pill will allow people to lose weight if
taken daily. The health magazine obtained a sample of 14 people
who agreed to take the pill for a month. This group was split into
two, a sample of 8 who would be given the slimming pill and a
control group of 6 who would (unknown to them) be given a
placebo (a fake slimming pill). The weight change at the end of
the month is given below where a minus indicates a loss of
weight.
Sample 1SA -2 -6 3 -10 0 2 -4 -9
Sample 2 -2 0 -5 8 4 0
(control group)
A health magazine has decided to test the claim of the makers of a new slimming pill
that has just come on the market. The company claims that the pill will allow people to
lose weight if taken daily. The health magazine obtained a sample of 14 people who
agreed to take the pill for a month. This group was split into two, a sample of 8 who
would be given the slimming pill and a control group of 6 who would (unknown to
them) be given a placebo (a fake slimming pill). The weight change at the end of the
month is given below where a minus indicates a loss of weight.
Sample 1SA -2 -6 3 -10 0 2 -4 -9
Sample 2 -2 0 -5 8 4 0
(control group)
Some questions will require you to calculate the mean and standard deviation
of one or both samples, but for time’s sake, the mean and standard deviation
for sample 1 are -3.25 and 4.862 respectively, and the equivalent figures for the
control group are 0.833 and 4.579 respectively.
Step A: H 0 : x1  x2  0
Step B: H1 : x1  x2  0
(if we assume that the magazine is not biased in its opinion of the pill)
Step C: Calculate the test statistic:

Step A: H 0 : x1  x2  0
Step B: H1 : x1  x2  0
2 (n1  1) s12  (n2  1) s22

S 
p 
n1  n2  2
Step A: H 0 : x1  x2  0
Step B: H1 : x1  x2  0
(n1  1) s12  (n2  1) s22 (8  1)4.8622  (6  1)4.5792

2
S  p 
n1  n2  2 862

Step A: H 0 : x1  x2  0
Step B: H1 : x1  x2  0
(n1  1) s12  (n2  1) s22 (8  1)4.8622  (6  1)4.5792
2
S  p 
n1  n2  2 862
270.3195
  22.5258
12
Therefore the pooled standard deviation is
s p  22.5258  4.746
And x1  x2
T 
1 1
Sp 
n1 n2
Step A: H 0 : x1  x2  0
Step B: H1 : x1  x2(ifwe
0 assume that the magazine is not biased in its opinion of the pill)
(n1  1) s12  (n2  1) s22 (8  1)4.8622  (6  1)4.5792
2
S  p 
n1  n2  2 862
270.3195
  22.5258
12
s p  22.5258  4.746
And x1  x2  3.25  0.833
T  
1 1 1 1
Sp  4.746 
n1 n2 8 6
Step A: H 0 : x1  x2  0
Step B: H1 : x1  x2(ifwe
0 assume that the magazine is not biased in its opinion of the pill)
(n1  1) s12  (n2  1) s22 (8  1)4.8622  (6  1)4.5792
2
S  p 
n1  n2  2 862
270.3195
  22.5258
12
s p  22.5258  4.746
And x1  x2  3.25  0.833  4.083
T    1.593
1 1 1 1 2.563
Sp  4.746 
n1 n2 8 6
At the 5% significance level and with 12 degrees of
freedom the critical value is -2.179
Step E: Conclusion
At the 5% significance level and with 12 degrees of freedom
(we subtract 2 from 14 as there are two groups) the critical
value is -2.179
Step E: Conclusion
Since the test statistic does not
fall in the rejection region, we do
not reject the null hypothesis, H . There
0 is not enough
evidence to suggest that the slimming pill had any effect on
weight change.

Class 5 ESEI Maths L5 Hypothesis Testing

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Class 5 ESEI Maths L5 Hypothesis Testing

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Class 5

A. State the null hypothesis denoted by H 0

Let’s look at steps A and B

depending on the nature of the problem

Let’s look at an example:

Step A: What is the null hypothesis?

Step A: What is the null hypothesis?

Two-tailed test at the

What do the symbols stand for?

Step C: Calculate the test statistic (z): x  0

Work out values for x, 0, s and n

A. State the null hypothesis denoted by H 0

Step C: Calculate the test statistic (z):

Step C: Calculate the test statistic (z):

Step C: Calculate the test statistic (z): Z

One tailed test at the 5% significance level

Step D: Work out the critical value (rejection region)

Always draw a diagram for hypothesis test questions.

Step D: Work out the critical value (rejection region)

Step C: Calculate the test statistic (t):

Step C: Calculate the test statistic (t): x  0 3.74  4

Step D: Work out the critical value (rejection region)

Step D: Work out the critical value (rejection region)

Step D: Work out the critical value (rejection region)

Do this exercise on your own following the 5 steps

Step D: Work out the critical value (rejection region)

Step D: Work out the critical value (rejection region)

Step D: Work out the critical value

Step D: Work out the critical value

Step D: Work out the critical value

Step D: Work out the critical value (rejection region) at (n1  n2 of

Step C: Calculate the test statistic:

2 (n1  1) s12  (n2  1) s22

(n1  1) s12  (n2  1) s22 (8  1)4.8622  (6  1)4.5792

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