HYPOTHESIS

Independent Samples and Means

Presented by:
MOHAMMAD FAROOQ
Head of
MATHEMATICS
 LEARNING OBJECTIVES
 What is a Hypothesis?
 Process of Hypothesis Testing
 Hypothesis Test of Mean

1 tailed and 2 tailed test

(σ known or σ Unknown)
 Type I and Type II Error

 Hypothesis Tests about of  -  :s and s Known

1 2 1 2
 Hypothesis Tests about of  -  :s and s
1 2 1 2
unknown
 Errors ( Type I and Type II)
Terms Introduce in Prior Chapter
 Population  all possible values
 Sample  a portion of the population
 Statistical inference  generalizing from a
sample to a population with calculated
degree of certainty
 Two forms of statistical inference
◦ Hypothesis testing
◦ Estimation
 Parameter  a characteristic of population, e.g.,
population mean µ
 Statistic  calculated from data in the sample, e.g.,
sample mean ( ) x
 What is a Hypothesis?
Ahypothesis is a claim
(assumption) about a population
parameter:
◦ population mean
Example: The mean monthly cell phone
bill of this city is µ = $40

◦ population proportion
Example: The proportion of adults in this
city with cell phones is π or p = .68

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 Test of Hypothesis
• Hypothesis- Hypothesis is generally
considered the most important instrument
in research. Its main function is to suggest
new functions and ideas. In social sciences
where direct knowledge of population
parameters is rare hypothesis testing is the
often used for deciding whether sample
data supports our purpose
Characteristics of a hypothesis
• Hypothesis should be clear and precise
• Hypothesis must be consistent with most
known facts
• Hypothesis must be testable within a
reasonable time
• Hypothesis must explain the facts which most
need explaining
• Hypothesis should be able to relate to a
variable
Concept of Hypothesis Testing
 Process of Hypothesis Testing

1. Formulate the null and alternative hypotheses

2. Specify the desired significance level, α. Find the
critical value, define the rejection region, Set
decision rule

3. Compute the test statistic

4. Reach a decision
5. Draw a conclusion

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 1 tailed and 2 tailed test
a
Level of significance =

Lower tail Upper tail Two tailed

test
Example test
Example test
Example
:H
:μ≥3 H: 0: μ ≤ 3 H: 0: μ = 3
0

HA: μ < 3 H A: μ > 3 H A: μ ≠

3

a a a /2 a/
2
- 0 0 zα - 0 zα/2
zα zα/2
Reject Do not Do not Reject Reject Do not Reject
H0 reject H0 reject H0 H0 H0 reject H0 H0

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 Hypothesis Test of Mean
Test Statistic Formula

Hypothesis
Tests for 

σ Known σ Unknown
The test statistic is: The test statistic is:

x μ x μ
z  t n1 
σ s
n n
 1 tailed and 2 tailed test
Level of significance =a

Lower tail test Upper tail test Two tailed test

Example: Example: Example:
H0 : μ ≥ 3 H0 : μ ≤ 3 H0 : μ = 3
H A: μ < 3 H A: μ > 3 H A: μ ≠ 3

a a a /2 a/2

-zα 0 0 zα -zα/2 0 zα/2

Reject H0 Do not Do not Reject H0 Reject H0 Do not Reject H0
reject H0 reject H0 reject H0

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 Example of upper tail test
Is there evidence that the average monthly cell phone bill is
now higher than $40?Test at  = 0.05.
Given the information below:-

x  $45 µ = $40 n = 25 σ = 9.55

We are interested if the average monthly cell phone

bill is significantly more than $40 a month.

Step 1 H0: µ ≤ $40 (status quo ie no change)

HA: µ > $40 (in support of recent change)

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 a = 0.05
0.5 0.45

Do not reject H0 Reject H0

zα = 1.645

Step 2 At  = 0.05 the critical zα value = 1.645

Decision rule: If test statistic, z > 1.645, or

Pr lies in critical rejoin ( pr < 0.05) reject H0

Step 3 Test statistic, z

x  μ  45  40
z  9.55 = 2.62 Test Statistic
σ
n 25

Pr (z > 2.62) = 1- 0.9961 = 0.0039 13

 a = 0.05
0.5 0.45

Do not reject H0 Reject H0

zα = 1.645 z = 2.62

Step 4 Since 2.62 > 1.645, reject H0

Since 0.0039 < 0.05 Reject Ho

Step 5 Conclusion: There’s sufficient evidence at 5%
level of significance that the mean cell phone bill
is now higher than $40 per month

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 Practice Question
A hospital ‘s recovery rate for heart bypass surgery is 42
days with a standard deviation of 5 days. A new
procedure was invented but the board of directors will
not recommend the new procedure unless there is
evidence to suggest that it’s is better than the existing
procedure.

The new procedure was then performed on 36 volunteer

patients and the average recovery time is 40.2 days.
Test at 1% significance level.

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 t test: Example of Two Tailed Test (σ Unknown, s known)
The Dairy Fresh ice cream plant uses a filling machine for its 64-ounce cartons.
There is some variation in the actual amount of ice cream that goes into the
carton. The machine can go out of adjustment and put a mean amount more or less
than 64 ounces into each carton.
The production manager selects a random sample of 16 cartons each day to
monitor the filling process. Sample mean was 64.2 and the sample standard
deviation 0.72. Test at 5% significance level.
Specify population parameter of interest
We are interested in the mean recovery time, 
 = 64 x = 64.2 n = 16 s = 0.72
Step 1 Formulate the null and alternative hypotheses
H0:  = 64 ounces (status quo)
H1:  ≠ 64 ounces

Step 2 Specify the desired significance level, α

The hypothesis test will be conducted using a 0.05 level of
significance ie  = 0.05

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Step 2 Define the rejection region, identify the critical value & set the
decision rule:
This will be a two tailed test.
The critical t value (with a d.f. of n-1 = 15 &  = 0.05 from the t-distribution
table) is = -2.1315
The decision rule is:
If t >2.1315 or t < - 2.1315, reject H0; otherwise do not reject H0

Step 3 Compute the test statistic:

x μ 64.2  64
t    1.11
σ 0.72
n 16

Step 4 Reach a decision

Because -2.1315 < 1.11 < 2.1315, do NOT reject H0

Step 5 Draw a conclusion:
Based on the sample data the company does not have sufficient evidence
to conclude that the filling machine is out of adjustment
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 Practice Question (σ Unknown, s known)

The Qwest Company operates service call centers where customers

can call to answer questions about their bills. Previous studies
indicate that the distribution time required for each call is normally
distributed with a mean equal to 540 seconds.
Company officials have selected a random sample of 16 calls and
wish to determine whether the mean call time is now fewer than 540
seconds. The mean from the sample was 510 seconds with a
standard deviation of 45 seconds. Test at 1% significance level.

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 Mean Test with σ known (z test)
Example of two Tailed Test
The Wilson Glass Company has a contract to
supply plate glass for homes. The contract
specifies a mean thickness of 0.375 inches.
The standard deviation is 0.05 inch.
Wilson managers has test measured a random
sample of 100 plate glasses to see if they are
meeting the requirements. The tests reveal a
sample mean of 0.378 inches. Test at 5%
significance level.
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 Mean Test with σ known (z test)
Example of two Tailed Test
Write down relevant information
 = 0.375 x = 0.378 n = 100  = 0.05
Step 1 Formulate the null and alternative hypotheses
H0:  = 0.375 (status quo)
H1:  ≠ 0.375
Step 2 Specify the desired significance level, α
level of significance (α = 0.05)

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Step 2 (continue) Define the rejection region, identify the critical value &
set the decision rule
This will be a 2 tailed test. a/2 = 0.025 a/2 = 0.025
The critical za/2 value is = ±1.96
0.475 0.475
The decision rule is:
If the test statistic, z> -1.96 or z <-1.96, reject Reject H0 Do not reject H0 Reject H0
H0; otherwise (else) do not reject H0 -zα/2 0 zα/2
= -1.96 = 1.96
Step 3 Compute the test statistic, z

x μ 0.378  0.375
z    0.6
σ 0.05
n 100
Step 4 Reach a decision and draw a conclusion
Because -1.96 < 0.6 < 1.96, do not reject H0

Step 5 Draw a conclusion

At 5% significance level, there is sufficient evidence to conclude that
Wilson Company is meeting its contract requirements
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Sampling Distribution of x1  x2

 Expected Value
E ( x1  x2 )  1   2

 Standard Deviation (Standard Error)

12  22
 x1  x2  
n1 n2

where: 1 = standard deviation of population 1

2 = standard deviation of population 2
n1 = sample size from population 1
n2 = sample size from population 2
Hypothesis Tests about of 1 - 2:s 1 and s 2 Known

 Example: Par, Inc.

Par, Inc. is a manufacturer
of golf equipment and has
developed a new golf ball
that has been designed to
provide “extra distance.”

In a test of driving distance using a mechanical

driving device, a sample of Par golf balls was
compared with a sample of golf balls made by Rap,
Ltd., a competitor. The sample statistics appear on the
next slide.
 Example: Par, Inc.

Sample #1 Sample #2
Par, Inc. Rap, Ltd.
Sample Size 120 balls 80 balls
Sample Mean 275 yards 258 yards

Based on data from previous driving distance

tests, the two population standard deviations are
known with s 1 = 15 yards and s 2 = 20 yards.
Can we conclude, using a = .01, that the mean driving
distance of Par, Inc. golf balls is greater than the mean
driving distance of Rap, Ltd. golf balls?
Example Solution
H0: 1 - 2 < 0 
1. Develop the hypotheses. Ha: 1 - 2 > 0
2. Specify the level of significance. a = .01

3. Compute the value of the test statistic.

(235  218)  0 17
z   6.49
(15)2 (20)2 2.62

120 80
4. Determine the critical value and rejection rule.
For a = .01, z.01 = 2.33
5. Conclusion: Reject H0 if z > 2.33
The sample evidence indicates the mean driving
distance of Par, Inc. golf balls is greater than the mean
driving distance of Rap, Ltd. golf balls.
Hypothesis Tests about of 1 - 2:s 1 and s 2 unknown
 Example: Specific Motors
Specific Motors of Detroit
has developed a new automobile
known as the M car. 24 M cars
and 28 J cars (from Japan) were road
tested to compare miles-per-gallon (mpg) performance.
The sample statistics are shown on the next slide.
Sample #1 Sample #2
M Cars J Cars

24 cars 28 cars Sample Size

29.8 mpg 27.3 mpg Sample Mean
2.56 mpg 1.81 mpg Sample Std. Dev.
Can we conclude, using a 0.05 level of significance, that the miles-
per-gallon (mpg) performance of M cars is greater than the miles-
per- gallon performance of J cars?
Example Solution

H0: m - j < 0 
Ha: m - j > 0
a = .05
( x1  x2 )  D0 (29.8  27.3)  0
t   4.003
s12 s22 (2.56) 2 (1.81) 2
 
n1 n2 24 28

For a = .05 and df =----- , t.05 = ------ ,

Because p–value < a = .05, we -------- H0.
We are at least 95% confident that the miles-per-
gallon (mpg) performance of M cars is greater than
the miles-per-gallon performance of J cars?.
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Error: Accepting the null hypothesis when it is
actually false.

Researcher
Null Accept Reject
Hypothesis H0 H0

H0 is true Type I error,

√
α
Type II error,
H0 is false √


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THANK
YOU