You are on page 1of 13

678',$36<&+2/2*,&$ 

'(9(/230(17$1'36<&+20(75,&(9$/8$7,212)
$5(9,6('0($685(2)0($1,1*,1/,)(
7+(/2*27(675
   
%DUQD.21.2/ Ÿ7+(*( 7DPÂV0$5726 <DDFRY*%$&+1(5 7DOPD.86+1,5


,QVWLWXWHRI%HKDYLRUDO6FLHQFHV6HPPHOZHLV8QLYHUVLW\

1DJ\YÂUDGWÊU;;HP+%XGDSHVW+XQJDU\

(PDLONRQNRO\WKHJHEDUQD#JPDLOFRP


'HSDUWPHQWRI6RFLRORJ\RI+HDOWK%HQ*XULRQ8QLYHUVLW\RIWKH1HJHY

32%%H
HU6KHYD,VUDHO


,QVWLWXWHRI0HQWDO+HDOWK6HPPHOZHLV8QLYHUVLW\

1DJ\YÂUDGWÊU;;HP+%XGDSHVW+XQJDU\

$EVWUDFW 0HDQLQJ LQ OLIH LV D FRUH FRQVWUXFW LQ TXDOLW\ RI OLIH UHVHDUFK DQG KDV UHFHLYHG VXEVWDQ

WLDODWWHQWLRQLQWKHSDVWGHFDGHV$VDFRQVHTXHQFHVHYHUDOLQVWUXPHQWVZHUHGHYHORSHGWRDVVHVV

WKLVFRQVWUXFW7KHILUVWPHDQLQJLQOLIHVFDOHGHVLJQHGDQGVWDQGDUGL]HGLQ(XURSHZDVWKH/RJR

7HVW /XNDV   $OWKRXJK WKLV WHVW KDV EHHQ ZLGHO\ XVHG DFURVV (XURSH WKH SV\FKRPHWULF

SURSHUWLHV RI WKH LQVWUXPHQW SURYHG WR EH SRRU LQ VHYHUDO LQYHVWLJDWLRQV 7KH DLP RI WKH SUHVHQW

VWXG\WKHUHIRUHZDVWRGHYHORSDUHYLVHGYHUVLRQEDVHGRQLQWHUQDWLRQDOGDWDDQGWRHYDOXDWHLWV

SV\FKRPHWULF FKDUDFWHULVWLFV 7KH LQWHUQDO FRQVLVWHQF\ DQG IDFWRU VWUXFWXUH RI WKH LWHP UHYLVHG

YHUVLRQ /RJR7HVW5  ZHUH H[DPLQHG LQ D VDPSOH RI  +XQJDULDQV 7KH LQWHUQDO UHOLDELOLW\ RI

WKHWHVWZDVDGHTXDWH α  7KHYDOLGLW\RIWKH/RJR7HVW5ZDVHYDOXDWHGLQDVXEVDPSOHRI

LQGLYLGXDOVE\H[DPLQLQJLWVUHODWLRQVKLSZLWKILQDQFLDOVWDWHVFRUHVLQWZRRWKHUPHDVXUHVRI

PHDQLQJ LQ OLIH DQG IXUWKHU LQVWUXPHQWV DVVHVVLQJ RWKHU TXDOLW\ RI OLIH LQGLFDWRUV VXFK DV JHQHUDO

OLIHVDWLVIDFWLRQGHSUHVVLYHV\PSWRPDWRORJ\DQGOLIHJRDORULHQWDWLRQ7KHGLUHFWLRQDQGVWUHQJWK

RI WKH REVHUYHG FRQQHFWLRQV ZDV LQ DFFRUGDQFH ZLWK H[SHFWDWLRQV WKXV GHPRQVWUDWLQJ JRRG FRQ

VWUXFWYDOLGLW\RIWKH/RJR7HVW5

.H\ZRUGVPHDQLQJLQOLIHTXDOLW\RIOLIH/RJR7HVWUHOLDELOLW\YDOLGLW\

J\ WKH FRQVWUXFW RI PHDQLQJ LQ OLIH KDV

,1752'8&7,21 UHFHLYHG LQFUHDVLQJ DWWHQWLRQ DQG UHFRJQL

WLRQ LQ WKH SDVW GHFDGHV 7KH ILUVW WR LQWUR

,Q FRQMXQFWLRQ ZLWK WKH JURZLQJ HPSKD GXFH WKLV FRQVWUXFW WR WKH VRFLDO VFLHQFHV

VLVRQTXDOLW\RIOLIHDQGSRVLWLYHSV\FKROR ZDV  9LNWRU )UDQNO ZKR FRQVLGHUHG WKH

ZLOOWRPHDQLQJDVDIXQGDPHQWDOGULYH
$FNQRZOHGJPHQWV 7KH DXWKRUV ZLVK WR WKDQN WR
RI KXPDQ EHLQJV  )UDQNO  
.ULV]WLQD6]HQWOÊOHNLIRUKHUYDOXDEOHKHOSLQFROOHFW
7KLV DXWKRU FRQWHQGV )UDQNO 
LQJ WKH GDWD :H DUH DOVR YHU\ JUDWHIXO WR 'U 0DUÎD

$QJHOHV 1REOHMDV GH OD )ORU IRU SXWWLQJ KHU 6SDQLVK


WKDW SHRSOH DUH FDSDEOH RI GLVFRYHULQJ

GDWD DW RXU GLVSRVDO 7KLV VWXG\ ZDV VXSSRUWHG E\ PHDQLQJ LQ WKHLU OLYHV WKURXJK WKH DFWXDO
VFKRODUVKLS   RI WKH 9LNWRU )UDQNO )RXQGDWLRQ L]DWLRQ  RI GLIIHUHQW YDOXHV WKDW FDQ EH
RIWKH&LW\RI9LHQQDJLYHQWRWKHILUVWDXWKRUDQGE\
FUHDWLYH RFFXSDWLRQ DQ\ NLQG RI DFWLYH
WKH +XQJDULDQ 1DWLRQDO 6FLHQFH )RXQGDWLRQ 27.$
GHHGV WKDW FUHDWH VRPHWKLQJ YDOXDEOH 
7 

&RUUHVSRQGHQFH FRQFHUQLQJ WKLV DUWLFOH VKRXOG EH H[SHULHQWLDO DSSUHFLDWLRQ RI DQ\WKLQJ WKDW
ÿ
DGGUHVVHGWR%DUQD.RQNRO 7KHJH +XQJDU\  WKH SHUVRQ YDOXHV DUW QDWXUH KXPRU ORYH
 678',$36<&+2/2*,&$

RI RWKHUV  RU DWWLWXGLQDO IDFLQJ XQFRQWURO XVHG 3XUSRVH LQ /LIH 7HVW 3,/ &UXP

ODEOH IDFWRUV VXFK DV LOOQHVV RU GHDWK ZLWK EDXJK 0DKROLFN   RU RWKHU LQVWUX

GLJQLW\  PHQWV SXEOLVKHG ODWHU HJ /LIH $WWLWXGH

6LQFH WKH LQWURGXFWLRQ RI WKH FRQVWUXFW 3URILOH E\ 5HNHU  0HDQLQJ LQ /LIH

FRQVLGHUDEOH HIIRUWV KDYH EHHQ GHYRWHG WR 4XHVWLRQQDLUH >0/4@ RI 6WHJHU )UD]LHU

WKHHPSLULFDOHYDOXDWLRQRIPHDQLQJLQOLIH 2LVKL DQG .DOHU   WKH /RJR7HVW

$FFRUGLQJ WR WKH DFFXPXODWHG UHVHDUFK GRHVQRWDWWHPSWWRGLUHFWO\DVVHVVWKHOHYHO

GDWD PHDQLQJ LQ OLIH VKRXOG EH FRQVLGHUHG RI OLIH PHDQLQJ RI D SHUVRQ E\ H[SOLFLW

DV DQ HVVHQWLDO SDUW RI SRVLWLYH TXDOLW\ RI VWDWHPHQWV DERXW PHDQLQJIXOQHVV LH
,

OLIH DQG PHQWDO KHDOWK )RU LQVWDQFH SHU XQGHUVWDQG P\ OLIH
V PHDQLQJ
 IURP WKH

VRQV KDYLQJ D VWURQJ VHQVH RI SXUSRVH DQG 0/4  RU D ODFN RI LW HJ
0\ SHUVRQDO

PHDQLQJLQOLIHSURYHGWREHPRUHVDWLVILHG H[LVWHQFH LV XWWHUO\ PHDQLQJOHVV ZLWKRXW

ZLWK WKHLU OLYHV IHHO PRUH FRQWURO DQG SXUSRVH


 IURP WKH 3,/  5DWKHU WKH /RJR

HQJDJHPHQW LQ WKHLU ZRUN DQG KDYH OHVV 7HVW LQFOXGHV IDFWRUV FRQWULEXWLQJ WR WKH

QHJDWLYH DIIHFW 6WHJHU   ,Q FRQWUDVW IHHOLQJ RI PHDQLQJIXOQHVV


VRXUFHV RI

SHUVRQV ZKR IDLO WR VDWLVI\ WKH QHHG IRU PHDQLQJ LQ OLIH
 DQG V\PSWRPV UHVXOWLQJ

PHDQLQJLQOLIHWHQGWRH[SHULHQFHDQLQQHU IURP D ZHDN VHQVH RI PHDQLQJ LQ OLIH

HPSWLQHVV  ODEHOHG E\ )UDQNO DV


H[LVWH
V\PSWRPV RI H[LVWHQWLDO IUXVWUDWLRQ


QWLDO YDFXXP RU H[LVWHQWLDO IUXVWUDWLRQ


  7KLV LV EHFDXVH WKH LQVWUXPHQW DLPV WR

WKDW LQFUHDVHV WKH RFFXUUHQFH RI PRRG KDYH ERWK UHVHDUFK DQG WKHUDSHXWLF DSSOL

GLVRUGHUV =LND &KDPEHUODLQ   DV FDELOLW\ DSDUW IURP WKH JHQHUDO VHQVH RI

ZHOO DV WKH SUREDELOLW\ RI VXLFLGDO LGHDWLRQ PHDQLQJ LQ OLIH RI D SHUVRQ WKH /RJR7HVW

(GZDUGV +ROGHQ  +DUORZ 1HZ DOVR DWWHPSWV WR SURYLGH SUHOLPLQDU\ LQ

FRPE%HQWOHU ,QDGGLWLRQDKLJKHU IRUPDWLRQ DERXW VSHFLILF WRSLFV WR ZRUN RQ

OHYHO RI PHDQLQJ LQ OLIH LV WR EH VHHQ DV D LQDSRWHQWLDOWKHUDSHXWLFSURFHVV

SURWHFWLYHIDFWRUDJDLQVWGLIIHUHQWDGGLF 7KHRULJLQDO*HUPDQODQJXDJHYHUVLRQRI

WLYH EHKDYLRUV LQFOXGLQJ WKH XVH RI ERWK WKH /RJR7HVW HJ $ULPRQG .DPPHU

OHJDO *XWWPDQQ &RKHQ  .RQNRO ÿ  %ÝKOHU /DQG  3HVFKHO 

7KHJH HW DO  0DUVK 6PLWK 3LHN 6FKPLW] +DXNH   RU SDUWV RI LW

  DQG LOOHJDO VXEVWDQFHV 1HZFRPE *HEOHU 0ÅUFNHU   KDYH EHHQ

+DUORZH  1LFKROVRQ HW DO   HPSOR\HG LQ VHYHUDO VWXGLHV EHLQJ FRQ

7KH FRQVWUXFW RI OLIH PHDQLQJ KDV EHHQ GXFWHG LQ *HUPDQVSHDNLQJ FRXQWULHV ,Q

OLQNHGWRWKH%LJ)LYHSHUVRQDOLW\WUDLWV DGGLWLRQ WKH VFDOH ZDV WUDQVODWHG LQWR DW

DV ZHOO QHXURWLFLVP H[WUDYHUVLRQ RSHQ OHDVWODQJXDJHVDQGZDVXVHGLQVHYHUDO

QHVV DJUHHDEOHQHVV DQG FRQVFLHQWLRXVQHVV FRXQWULHV ZRUOGZLGH LQFOXGLQJ IRU H[DP

DUH DOO FRQQHFWHG WR PHDQLQJ LQ OLIH SOH&KLOH %DVFXU9DFFD*XHYDUD 

+DODPD  /ÅQJOH 2UJOHU .XQGL WKH &]HFK 5HSXEOLF %DOFDU   +XQ

 6FKQHOO %HFNHU   LQGLFDWLQJ JDU\ .RQNRO  ÿ 7KHJH   0H[LFR

WKDW WKLV FRQVWUXFW LV DQ LPSRUWDQW OLQN 7HQD 5DJH 9LUVHGD   1LJHULD

EHWZHHQ SHUVRQDOLW\ DQG TXDOLW\ RI OLIH $VDJED   6ORYDNLD .OÉRYDQVNÂ

LQGLFDWRUV 0DVQLÉÂNRYÂ 6SDLQ 1REOHMDVGHOD

2QH RI WKH ILUVW LQVWUXPHQWV GHYHORSHG WR )ORU   6ZHGHQ 6WDQLFK ·UWHQJUHQ

DVVHVV PHDQLQJ LQ OLIH ZDV WKH /RJR7HVW   DQG WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV 3UHEOH

GHVLJQHG DQG VWDQGDUGL]HG LQ $XVWULD E\   +RZHYHU LQWHUQDO FRQVLVWHQF\ RI

/XNDV  8QOLNHWKHPRVWRIWHQ WKHLQVWUXPHQWZDVIRXQGWREHSRRU DOSKD


678',$36<&+2/2*,&$ 

YDOXHV EHWZHHQ  DQG   LQ VHYHUDO WLRQV )UDQNO   ZH K\SRWK

LQYHVWLJDWLRQV $VDJED  %DVFXU HVL]HG WKDW VFRUHV RQ WKH /RJR7HVW5

9DFFD *XHYDUD  .RQNRO  7KHJH ÿ ZRXOGEHXQUHODWHGWRILQDQFLDOVWDWXV

 1REOHMDV GH OD )ORU   ,Q RWKHU   :H DQWLFLSDWHG D PRGHUDWHO\ SRVLWLYH

VWXGLHV LQFOXGLQJ WKH PDQXDO RI WKH /RJR UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ WKH FRQVWUXFW RI JHQ

7HVW LWVHOI /XNDV   WKHUH ZHUH QR HUDO OLIH VDWLVIDFWLRQ DQG VFRUHV RQ WKH

DOSKD FRHIILFLHQWV GLVSOD\HG WR H[SUHVV WKH /RJR7HVW5 7KLV DVVXPSWLRQ ZDV EDVHG

LQWHUQDO UHOLDELOLW\ RI WKH LQVWUXPHQW HJ ERWK RQ WKH )UDQNOLDQ FRQFHSWV  ZKLFK

.OÉRYDQVNÂ 0DVQLÉÂNRYÂ  1REOHMDV KROG WKDW ILQGLQJ PHDQLQJ LQ RXU GDLO\

GHOD)ORU6WDQLFK·UWHQJUHQ H[SHULHQFHV DQG GHHGV OHDGV WR EHWWHU

7HQD 5DJH 9LUVHGD   ZKLFK PD\ TXDOLW\RIOLIHDQGRQHPSLULFDOGDWD HJ

DOVRUHIOHFWLQDGHTXDWHUHOLDELOLW\3ULQFLSDO ÿ
.RQNRO  7KHJH 0DUWRV  6WHJHU HW

FRPSRQHQW DQDO\VHV VKRZHG WKDW WKH DO 

LWHP VFDOH KDG VL[ RU VHYHQ GLPHQVLRQV   :H DOVR DVVXPHG WKDW SHUVRQV ZKR

DQGWKHHLJHQYDOXHVRIWKHFRPSRQHQWVGLG IROORZYDOXHVWUDQVFHQGLQJWKHLURZQZHOO

QRW GLIIHU VXEVWDQWLDOO\ IURP HDFK RWKHU EHLQJ  FDWHJRUL]HG DV LQWULQVLF DVSLUDWLRQV

ÿ
.RQNRO  7KHJH  1REOHMDV GH OD LQ WKH WKHRU\ RI .DVVHU DQG 5\DQ   

)ORU  ZRXOG UHDFK KLJKHU VFRUHV RQ WKH /RJR

$OWKRXJK *XWWPDQQ   GHFODUHV LQ 7HVW5FRPSDUHGZLWKWKRVHVWULYLQJUDWKHU

KLV RYHUYLHZ RI WKH SV\FKRORJLFDO PHD IRUVXFKYDOXHVDVZHDOWKIDPHSRSXODULW\

VXUHV DVVHVVLQJ PHDQLQJ LQ OLIH WKDW WKH DQG SK\VLFDO DWWUDFWLYHQHVV  ODEHOHG DV

/RJR7HVW LV DQ H[FHSWLRQDOO\ JRRG LQVWUX H[WULQVLF DVSLUDWLRQV 7KLV K\SRWKHVLV ZDV

PHQW UHYLHZLQJ WKH SUHYLRXV UHVHDUFK EDVHG RQ WKH DVVXPSWLRQ RI ORJRWKHUDS\

XVLQJ WKH /RJR7HVW OHG XV WR WKH FRQFOX DFFRUGLQJ WR ZKLFK SHUFHLYLQJ OLIH DV

VLRQ WKDW LQ VSLWH RI LWV XQTXHVWLRQDEOH PHDQLQJIXOGHULYHVIURPDFWXDOL]LQJYDOXHV

DGYDQWDJHV LWV SV\FKRPHWULF SURSHUWLHV EH\RQG RXUVHOYHV FI VHOIWUDQVFHQGHQFH 

QHHG WR EH LPSURYHG 7KH SXUSRVH RI WKH %DVHG RQ SUHYLRXV VWXGLHV XVLQJ RWKHU

SUHVHQWVWXG\WKHUHIRUHZDVWRSUHVHQWWKH ÿ
PHDQLQJ LQ OLIH PHDVXUHV .RQNRO  7KHJH

GHYHORSPHQW RI D UHYLVHG YHUVLRQ /RJR ÿ


0DUWRV.RQNRO 7KHJHHWDO 

7HVW5  DQG WR GHPRQVWUDWH SUHOLPLQDU\ ZH H[SHFWHG D PRGHUDWHO\ VWURQJ UHODWLRQ

ILQGLQJV FRQFHUQLQJ LWV SV\FKRPHWULF FKDU VKLS EHWZHHQ WKH /RJR7HVW5 VFRUHV DQG

DFWHULVWLFV ERWK WKH SHUVRQDO VLJQLILFDQFH RI LQWULQVLF

,Q RUGHU WR HYDOXDWH WKH YDOLGLW\ RI RXU DVSLUDWLRQV DQG WKHLU UHODWLYH GRPLQDQFH

LQVWUXPHQWVHYHUDOK\SRWKHVHVZHUHSRVHG RYHUH[WULQVLFDVSLUDWLRQV$FFRUGLQJWRWKH

  :H DVVXPHG WKDW VFRUHV RQ WKH /RJR SUHYLRXV UHVHDUFK ZH H[SHFWHG RQO\ D

7HVW5 ZRXOG EH VWURQJO\ DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK ZHDNDVVRFLDWLRQEHWZHHQOLIHPHDQLQJDQG

WKH RWKHU WZR PHDVXUHV RI PHDQLQJ LQ OLIH WKHSHUVRQDOLPSRUWDQFHRIH[WULQVLFDVSLUD

HPSOR\HG LQ WKLV VWXG\ QDPHO\ WKH 3XU WLRQV

SRVH LQ /LIH 7HVW &UXPEDXJK 0DKROLFN   6LQFH WKH FRQQHFWLRQ EHWZHHQ WKH

 DQGWKH6KRUWHQHG9HUVLRQ .RQNRO ÿ IHHOLQJ RI PHDQLQJOHVVQHVV DQG GHSUHVVLRQ

7KHJH 0DUWRV   RI WKH ([LVWHQFH LV SRVWXODWHG LQ )UDQNO
V WKHRU\ LWVHOI DQG

6FDOH /ÅQJOHHWDO  KDV DOUHDG\ EHHQ FRQILUPHG E\ SUHYLRXV

  6LQFH WKH KRORFDXVW VXUYLYRU )UDQNO HPSLULFDO GDWD HJ &UXPEDXJK 

GLGQRWEHOLHYHWKDWWKHVRXUFHVRIPHDQLQJ  6WHJHU HW DO  =LND &KDPEHU

LQ OLIH ZHUH FRQQHFWHG WR HFRQRPLF FRQGL ODLQ   LW ZDV DOVR K\SRWKHVL]HG WKDW
 678',$36<&+2/2*,&$

/RJR7HVW5 VFRUHV ZRXOG QHJDWLYHO\ DQG EHWZHHQ  DQG  ZLWK DQ DYHUDJH RI

PRGHUDWHO\ VWURQJO\ UHODWH WR GHSUHVVLYH  

V\PSWRPVHYHULW\  7KHHQWLUHWKLUGSDUW LWHPV ZDV

DOVR H[FOXGHG EHFDXVH WKLV VHFWLRQ VHHPHG

0(7+2'6 WR  EH TXLWH WLPH FRQVXPLQJ DQG  GLIIL

FXOW WR VFRUH LQ DFFRUGDQFH ZLWK WKH GLUHF

3UHSDUDWLRQRIWKH5HYLVHG9HUVLRQRI WLRQV RI WKH PDQXDO FRUUHODWLRQV EHWZHHQ

WKH/RJR7HVW /RJR7HVW5 WKHVFRUHVIRUWKHHVVD\SDUWJLYHQE\WKUHH

LQGHSHQGHQW VFRUHUV UDQJHG IURP  WR

7KH RULJLQDO /RJR7HVW RI /XNDV    ,Q DGGLWLRQ WKHVH LWHPV DOVR VKRZHG

  FRQWDLQV WKUHH SDUWV 7KH ILUVW RQH ZHDN  LWHPWRWDO FRUUHODWLRQV  U YDOXHV

LWHPV   LV GHVLJQHG WR PXVWHU VRXUFHV EHWZHHQ  DQG  ZLWK DQ DYHUDJH RI

RI OLIH PHDQLQJ HJ LQWHUSHUVRQDO UHOD  

WLRQVKLSV RFFXSDWLRQDO VDWLVIDFWLRQ  ZKLOH   7KH GLUHFWLRQ RI WKH VFRULQJ ZDV UH

WKH VHFRQG SDUW LWHPV   DLPV WR DV YHUVHG VR WKDW KLJKHU VFRUHV LQGLFDWH D

VHVV WKH V\PSWRPV DQG FRQVHTXHQFHV RI KLJKHU OHYHO RI PHDQLQJ IXOILOOPHQW DQG

PHDQLQJOHVVQHVV HJ DQJHU UHJUHVVLRQ  WKH WKUHHSRLQW UDWLQJ VFDOH ZDV ZLGHQHG

WKDW LV WKH VHYHULW\ RI H[LVWHQWLDO IUXVWUD LQWR D ILYHSRLQW RQH ,WHPV  QRW DW DOO

WLRQ %RWK SDUWV HPSOR\ D SRLQW UDWLQJ FKDUDFWHULVWLF  UDWKHU QRW FKDUDFWHULVWLF 

VFDOH 3DUW,\HVQRQHXWUDO3DUW,,YHU\ QHXWUDO  PRUH RU OHVV FKDUDFWHULVWLF  YHU\

RIWHQ  RQFH LQ D ZKLOH  QHYHU  7KH WKLUG FKDUDFWHULVWLF ,WHPV  QHYHU  UDUHO\ 

SDUW FRQVLVWV RI WZR IXUWKHU XQLWV 7ZR RQFH D ZKLOH  RIWHQ  YHU\ RIWHQ  $FFRUG

TXHVWLRQV LWHPV  DQG   DWWHPSW WR LQJ WR SUHYLRXV UHVSRQGHQWV


 VXJJHVWLRQV

DVVHVV WKH IOH[LELOLW\ RI WKH SHUVRQ LQ VHW PLQRU VW\OLVWLF FKDQJHV KDYH DOVR EHHQ

WLQJ DQG FKDQJLQJ OLIH JRDOV ZKLOH WKH PDGH WR LPSURYH FODULW\ )RU WKH (QJOLVK

VHFRQG XQLW LV DQ HVVD\ RQ RQH


V OLIH WR ODQJXDJH YHUVLRQ RI WKH /RJR7HVW5 VHH

ZKLFK WZR VFRUHV KDYH WR EH JLYHQ E\ WKH $SSHQGL[7KH+XQJDULDQYHUVLRQLVDYDLO

VFRUHU 7KH ILUVW VFRUH UDQJLQJ IURP  WR DEOH RQ UHTXHVW IURP WKH FRUUHVSRQGHQFH

  VKRXOG PLUURU JHQHUDO PHDQLQJ IXOILOO DXWKRU

PHQW LWHP   ZKLOH WKH VHFRQG YDOXH

UDQJLQJ IURP  WR   VKRXOG UHIOHFW WKH 6DPSOHDQG3URFHGXUH

GHJUHH WR ZKLFK WKH SHUVRQ FDQ UHODWH FRQ

VWUXFWLYHO\ WR WKH FRQGLWLRQV DQG HYHQWV RI $OWRJHWKHU  +XQJDULDQV SDUWLFLSDWHG

KLVRUKHUOLIH LWHP  LQ RXU VXUYH\ 5HOLDELOLW\ DQG IDFWRU VWUXF

,Q SUHSDULQJ WKH /RJR7HVW5 ZH LQ WXUHRIWKH/RJR7HVW5ZHUHHYDOXDWHG

WHQGHG WR SUHVHUYH WKH RULJLQDO VWUXFWXUH RI LQ WKH WRWDO VDPSOH ZKLOH YDOLGLW\ RI WKH

WKH VFDOH DV PXFK DV SRVVLEOH WKHUHIRUH LQVWUXPHQW ZDV H[DPLQHG LQ D VXEVDPSOH

RQO\ WKUHH VXEVWDQWLDO PRGLILFDWLRQV ZHUH RI  SHUVRQV JURXSV  DQG  VHH EH

PDGH EDVHG RQ WKH UDZ GDWD FROOHFWHG LQ ORZ  7KH EDVLF GHPRJUDSKLF FKDUDFWHULV

HDUOLHU VWXGLHV FRQGXFWHG LQ +XQJDU\ WLFVRIWKHVDPSOHDUHVXPPDUL]HGLQ7DEOH

.RQNRO  ÿ 7KHJH   DQG 6SDLQ 

1REOHMDVGHOD)ORU  3DUWLFLSDQWV ZHUH UHFUXLWHG LQ VHYHUDO RI

  7ZR LWHPV  DQG   ZHUH RPLWWHG WKHIROORZLQJZD\V

EHFDXVH RI WKHLU H[WUHPHO\ ORZ FRUUHFWHG   $SSUR[LPDWHO\  RI WKH UHVSRQ

LWHPWRWDO FRUUHODWLRQ FRHIILFLHQWV U YDOXHV GHQWV 1    ZHUH DVNHG WR SDUWLFLSDWH
678',$36<&+2/2*,&$ 

7DEOH%DVLFGHPRJUDSKLFFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRIWKHVDPSOH

7RWDOVDPSOH 6XEVDPSOHIRUWKH

1  HYDOXDWLRQRIYDOLGLW\

1 

*HQGHU

0DOH    

)HPDOH    

$JH    

(GXFDWLRQ

%DVLF    

0LGGOH    

+LJK    

/RJR7HVW5    

1RWH &RQWLQXRXV YDULDEOHV DUH UHSRUWHG DV PHDQ VWDQGDUG GHYLDWLRQ  DQG FDWHJRULFDO

YDULDEOHVDV1 SHUFHQWDJH 

YLD HPDLO XVLQJ WKH VQRZEDOO PHWKRG

7KH\ FRPSOHWHG D ZHEEDVHG YHUVLRQ RI 0HDVXUHV

WKH/RJR7HVW5

  $ERXW  RI WKH SDUWLFLSDQWV 1 3DUWLFLSDQWV ZHUH DVNHG WR UHVSRQG WR

  ZHUH UHFUXLWHG LQ +XQJDULDQ KLJK EDVLF GHPRJUDSKLF TXHVWLRQV FRQFHUQLQJ

VFKRROVDQGFRPSDQLHV JHQGHU DJH DQG HGXFDWLRQDO OHYHO ,Q WKH

  )RUW\ SHUFHQW RI WKH UHVSRQGHQWV 1 VXEVDPSOH ZKHUH WKH YDOLGLW\ DQDO\VHV

  ZHUH UHFUXLWHG E\ JUDGXDWH SV\FKROR ZHUH FRQGXFWHG PRQWKO\ IDPLO\ LQFRPH

J\VWXGHQWVRIWKH3Â]PÂQ\3ÊWHU8QLYHUVL SHU KHDG ZDV DOVR DVVHVVHG E\ D TXHVWLRQ

W\ 3LOLVFVDED +XQJDU\  $V D SDUW RI D ZLWK ILYH DYDLODEOH FDWHJRULHV UDQJLQJ

PHWKRGRORJ\ FRXUVH VWXGHQWV ZHUH DVNHG IURP


OHVVWKDQ+8)
WR
PRUHWKDQ

WR VHHN YROXQWHHUV LQ WKHLU VXUURXQGLQJV WR +8)


SDUWLFLSDWH EXW WKH\ WKHPVHOYHV ZHUH QRW %HVLGHV WKH /RJR7HVW5 >VHH VHFWLRQ

LQYROYHGLQWKHVWXG\ 3UHSDUDWLRQ RI WKH 5HYLVHG 9HUVLRQ RI WKH

  )LQDOO\  RI WKH SDUWLFLSDQWV 1 /RJR7HVW /RJR7HVW5 @ PHDQLQJ LQ OLIH

  ZHUH LQYROYHG E\ D YROXQWDU\ RUJD ZDV DOVR DVVHVVHG E\ LWV PRVW IUHTXHQWO\

QL]DWLRQ IRXQGHG WR KHOS ODWH DGROHVFHQWV XVHG PHDVXULQJ LQVWUXPHQW WKH 3XUSRVH LQ

DQG\RXQJDGXOWVZLWKXQIDYRUDEOHSV\FKR /LIH 7HVW 3,/ &UXPEDXJK 0DKROLFN

VRFLDOEDFNJURXQGV    DQG E\ WKH 6KRUWHQHG  9HUVLRQ

,Q DOO IRXU FDVHV SDUWLFLSDWLRQ LQ WKH LQ ÿ


(66 .RQNRO  7KHJH 0DUWRV   RI

YHVWLJDWLRQ ZDV DQRQ\PRXV DQG HQWLUHO\

YROXQWDU\ $OO TXHVWLRQQDLUHV ZHUH DGPLQ 


+8)  +XQJDULDQ )RULQW  (85  DSSUR[

LVWHUHGLQ+XQJDULDQLQWKHVSULQJRI +8)
 678',$36<&+2/2*,&$

WKH ([LVWHQFH 6FDOH /ÅQJOH HW DO   LW\ IRU WKLV VFDOH ZDV VDWLVIDFWRU\ &URQ

7KH VWUXFWXUH RI WKH  QRUPDO DQG WKH  EDFK


VDOSKD  

UHYHUVHFRGHG 3,/LWHPV IROORZV WKH SDW /LIH JRDOV ZHUH HYDOXDWHG E\ WKH VKRUW

WHUQ RI D VHYHQSRLQW UDWLQJ VFDOH DV IRO HQHG +XQJDULDQ YHUVLRQ 0DUWRV 6]DEÔ

ORZV
,Q OLIH , KDYH   QR JRDOV RU DLPV 5Ô]VD   RI WKH $VSLUDWLRQ ,QGH[

DW DOO    YHU\ FOHDU JRDOV DQG DLPV


 DQG .DVVHU 5\DQ   6L[ LWHPV DVVHVVHG

,I,VKRXOGGLHWRGD\,ZRXOGIHHOWKDW WKHSHUVRQDOLPSRUWDQFHRIH[WULQVLFDVSLUD

P\OLIHKDVEHHQ  YHU\ZRUWKZKLOH WLRQV ZHDOWK IDPH DQG DWWUDFWLYHQHVV 

  FRPSOHWHO\ ZRUWKOHVV
 7KLV LQVWUXPHQW ZKLOH DQRWKHU VL[ LWHPV PHDVXUHG WKH LP

SURYHGWRKDYHDGHTXDWHUHOLDELOLW\DVZHOO SRUWDQFH RI LQWULQVLF DVSLUDWLRQV SV\FKR

DV JRRG FRQYHUJHQW DQG GLYHUJHQW YDOLGLW\ ORJLFDO JURZWK UHODWHGQHVV WR RWKHUV DQG

DPRQJ PDQ\ SRSXODWLRQV DQG WKH SV\FKR FRPPXQLW\ FRQWULEXWLRQ  %RWK VXEVFDOHV

PHWULF SURSHUWLHV RI WKH +XQJDULDQ DGDSWD RI WKH LQVWUXPHQW XVHG ILYHSRLQW UDWLQJ

WLRQ ZHUH DOVR IRXQG WR EH VDWLVIDFWRU\ VFDOHV UDQJLQJ IURP  
QRW LPSRUWDQW DW

ÿ
.RQNRO  7KHJH 0DUWRV   ,Q WKH DOO
 WR  
YHU\ LPSRUWDQW
 DQG GHPRQ

SUHVHQW VWXG\ LQWHUQDO FRQVLVWHQF\ RI WKLV VWUDWHG DGHTXDWH LQWHUQDO FRQVLVWHQF\ UHOLD

PHDVXUH ZDV H[FHOOHQW &URQEDFK


V DOSKD ELOLWLHV LQ RXU VDPSOH &URQEDFK
V DOSKD

   7KH LWHP (66 KDV D VL[SRLQW ZDV  IRU WKH LWHPV PHDVXULQJ LQWULQVLF

UDWLQJVFDOHUDQJLQJIURP  
QRWDWDOO
WR DVSLUDWLRQV DQG  IRU LWHPV FRQFHUQLQJ

 
DEVROXWHO\
 ,QWHUQDO FRQVLVWHQF\ RI H[WULQVLF DVSLUDWLRQV /LIH JRDO RULHQWDWLRQ

WKLV PHDVXUH ZDV DGHTXDWH LQ WKLV VWXG\ ZDVH[SUHVVHGE\DQLQGH[VFRUHFRPSXWHG

&URQEDFK
VDOSKD   E\ VXEWUDFWLQJ WKH UDWLQJV RI WKH H[WULQVLF

7R DVVHVV JHQHUDO OLIH VDWLVIDFWLRQ WKH DVSLUDWLRQV IURP WKRVH RI WKH LQWULQVLF DV

ILYHLWHP 6DWLVIDFWLRQ ZLWK /LIH 6FDOH ZDV SLUDWLRQV VR WKDW D KLJKHU VFRUH LQGLFDWHG D

XVHG 'LHQHUHWDO 7KLVVFDOHKDVD VWURQJHU SRODUL]DWLRQ WRZDUG FRPPLWPHQW

VHYHQSRLQW UDWLQJ VFDOH UDQJLQJ IURP  WRLQWULQVLFYDOXHV

VWURQJO\ GLVDJUHH
 WR  
VWURQJO\ DJUHH

DQG LV D ZLGHO\ XVHG DQG ZHOO YDOLGDWHG 6WDWLVWLFDO$QDO\VHV

PHDVXUH RI OLIH VDWLVIDFWLRQ UHSUHVHQWLQJ

WKH FRJQLWLYH DVSHFW RI VXEMHFWLYH ZHOO &RQILUPDWRU\ IDFWRU DQDO\VHV ZHUH FRQ

EHLQJ ,Q WKLV VDPSOH LQWHUQDO FRQVLVWHQF\ GXFWHG E\ $026  ZKLOH DOO RWKHU VWD

RI WKLV PHDVXUH ZDV YHU\ JRRG &URQ WLVWLFDO SURFHGXUHV ZHUH FDUULHG RXW XVLQJ

EDFK
VDOSKD   WKH 6366  VRIWZDUH ,Q RUGHU WR HYDOX

'HSUHVVLYH V\PSWRPDWRORJ\ ZDV DV DWHWKHIDFWRUVWUXFWXUHRIWKH/RJR7HVW5

VHVVHG E\ WKH QLQHLWHP VKRUWHQHG YHUVLRQ WZR FRQILUPDWRU\ IDFWRU DQDO\WLF PRGHOV

5Ô]VD 6]ÂGÔF]N\ )ÝUHGL   RI WKH ZHUH WHVWHG 0RGHO  ZDV D VLQJOH IDFWRU

%HFN 'HSUHVVLRQ ,QYHQWRU\ %HFN HW DO PRGHO ZLWK RQH PHDQLQJ LQ OLIH IDFWRU

  ZKLFK LV D UHOLDEOH PHDVXUH IRU UHVSRQVLEOHIRUDOOLWHPUHVSRQVHV0RG

VFUHHQLQJ GHSUHVVLYH V\PSWRP VHYHULW\ HO  ZDV D KLJKHURUGHU PRGHO ZLWK WZR

7KH +XQJDULDQ YHUVLRQ RI WKLV LQVWUXPHQW ILUVWRUGHU IDFWRUV


VRXUFHV RI PHDQLQJ LQ

KDV D IRXUSRLQW UDWLQJ VFDOH UDQJLQJ IURP OLIH


 DQG
V\PSWRPV RI H[LVWHQWLDO IUXVWUD

 
QRWDWDOOWUXH
WR  
H[DFWO\WUXH
DQG WLRQ
DQGRQHVHFRQGRUGHUIDFWRU
PHDQ

KDV EHHQ YDOLGDWHG ERWK LQ WKH JHQHUDO LQJLQOLIH




SRSXODWLRQ DQG RQ FOLQLFDO VDPSOHV 5Ô]VD 7KHQRUPDOLW\RIWKHFRQWLQXRXVYDULDEOHV

HWDO ,QWKLVVWXG\LQWHUQDOUHOLDELO ZDV WHVWHG E\ WKH 6KDSLUR:LON :VWDWLV


678',$36<&+2/2*,&$ 

WLFV %HFDXVH RI WKH QRQQRUPDO GLVWULEX

WLRQ RI RXU FRQWLQXRXV YDULDEOHV UHODWLRQ 5(68/76

VKLSV DPRQJ WKHP ZHUH DQDO\]HG XVLQJ

QRQSDUDPHWULF PHWKRGV 7KH 0DQQ:KLW 'HVFULSWLYH6WDWLVWLFV5HOLDELOLW\DQG

QH\ WHVW DQG WKH .UXVNDOO:DOOLV WHVW ZHUH )DFWRU6WUXFWXUH

DSSOLHG WR HYDOXDWH WKH UHODWLRQV EHWZHHQ

FDWHJRULFDODQGFRQWLQXRXVYDULDEOHVZKLOH 0HDQ VFRUH RI WKH /RJR7HVW5 LQ WKH

6SHDUPDQ FRUUHODWLRQ FRHIILFLHQWV ZHUH WRWDO VDPSOH ZDV  UDQJLQJ IURP  WR

FDOFXODWHG WR HVWLPDWH WKH VWUHQJWK RI WKH   ZLWK D VWDQGDUG GHYLDWLRQ RI  7KH

DVVRFLDWLRQV EHWZHHQ WZR FRQWLQXRXV YDUL IUHTXHQF\ GLVWULEXWLRQ RI WKH WRWDO VFRUHV

DEOHV &RKHQ
V G YDOXH ZDV FDOFXODWHG WR ZDV VRPHZKDW GHYLDWHG IURP WKH QRUPDO

H[SUHVVHIIHFWVL]H GLVWULEXWLRQ 6KDSLUR:LON :   S 

)LJXUH&RQILUPDWRU\IDFWRUDQDO\WLFPRGHORIUHVSRQVHVWRWKHUHYLVHGYHUVLRQRIWKH

/RJR7HVW KLJKHURUGHUVROXWLRQ
 678',$36<&+2/2*,&$

  ZLWK D VNHZQHVV YDOXH RI  DQG D S    :KDW LV PRUH VFRUHV RQ WKH

NXUWRVLV RI  &RUUHFWHG LWHPWRWDO FRU /RJR7HVW5 ZHUH LQGHSHQGHQW RI D SHU

UHODWLRQV RI WKH LWHPV UDQJHG IURP  WR VRQ


V ILQDQFLDO VWDWH χ
   S   

 ZLWK DQ DYHUDJH YDOXH RI  6' ,Q DGGLWLRQ PHDQLQJ LQ OLIH PHDVXUHG E\

  ,QWHUQDO FRQVLVWHQF\ RI WKH VFDOH WKH /RJR7HVW5 DVVRFLDWHG PRGHUDWHO\

SURYHGWREHDGHTXDWH &URQEDFK
VDOSKD DQGSRVLWLYHO\ZLWKJHQHUDOOLIHVDWLVIDFWLRQ

  7KH FRQILUPDWRU\ IDFWRU DQDO\WLF U   S    SHUVRQDO LPSRUWDQFH

LQYHVWLJDWLRQV UHYHDOHG WKDW WKH RQHIDFWRU RILQWULQVLFDVSLUDWLRQV U S 

VROXWLRQ 0RGHO   RI WKH /RJR7HVW5 DQG PRUH LQWULQVLF YDOXH RULHQWDWLRQ U

VKRXOGEHDEVROXWHO\UHMHFWHG &0,1') S 6FRUHVRQWKH/RJR7HVW5

 &),   506($    $O UHODWHGQHJDWLYHO\EXWRQO\ZHDNO\ZLWKWKH

WKRXJKWKHKLJKHURUGHUVROXWLRQ 0RGHO SHUVRQDO LPSRUWDQFH RI H[WULQVLF DVSLUD

VKRZHG EHWWHU JRRGQHVVRIILW LQGLFHV WLRQV U   S    )LQDOO\ PHDQ

&0,1')   &),   506($ LQJ LQ OLIH PHDVXUHG E\ WKH /RJR7HVW5

   WKH LQGLFDWRUV IOXFWXDWHG DURXQG DVVRFLDWHG PRGHUDWHO\ DQG QHJDWLYHO\ ZLWK

WKH OLPLW RI DFFHSWDELOLW\ HYHQ LQ WKH FDVH GHSUHVVLYH  V\PSWRP VHYHULW\  U  

RI WKLV PRGHO )LJXUH  SUHVHQWV VWDQGDUG S 

L]HG HVWLPDWHV RI WKH EHWWHU ILWWLQJ KLJKHU

RUGHUVROXWLRQ ',6&866,21

*HQGHUDQGDJHGLGQRWUHODWHVLJQLILFDQW

O\WRVFRUHVRQWKH/RJR7HVW5 =  7KH DLP RI WKH SUHVHQW VWXG\ ZDV WR GH

S   U6SHDUPDQ   S   UHVSHF YHORSDUHYLVHGYHUVLRQRIWKH/RJR7HVWRI

WLYHO\ 6LQFHLQVRPHLQYHVWLJDWLRQVPHDQ /XNDV  DQGWRSUHVHQWSUHOLPL

LQJ LQ OLIH SURYHG WR KDYH D QRQOLQHDU QDU\ GDWD FRQFHUQLQJ LWV UHOLDELOLW\ DQG

UHODWLRQVKLS ZLWK DJH /ÅQJOH HW DO  YDOLGLW\ ,Q FRQWUDVW WR WKH SXEOLVKHG GDWD

/XNDV ZHDOVRDQDO\]HGWKLVDVVRFL RQWKHRULJLQDOYHUVLRQWKHUHYLVHGYHUVLRQ

DWLRQXVLQJDJHDVDFDWHJRULFDOYDULDEOH RI WKH /RJR7HVW SURYHG WR KDYH DGHTXDWH

 \UV 1    \UV 1   LQWHUQDOFRQVLVWHQF\DQGDPRUHDFFHSWDEOH

!\UV1  EXWWKHUHVXOWVUHPDLQHG IDFWRU VWUXFWXUH WZR ILUVWRUGHU IDFWRUV

WKH VDPH χ 
   S    +RZHYHU LQVWHDG RI WKH VL[ RU VHYHQ FRPSRQHQWV

HGXFDWLRQDO OHYHO VKRZHG D SRVLWLYH UHOD REVHUYHG LQ WKH RULJLQDO YHUVLRQ  +RZHY

WLRQVKLS ZLWK PHDQLQJ LQ OLIH VFRUHV PHD HUWKHVOLJKWO\SRRUJRRGQHVVRIILWLQGLFHV

VXUHG E\ WKH /RJR7HVW5 χ


   S  RI RXU FRQILUPDWRU\ IDFWRU DQDO\WLF PRGHOV

  (IIHFW VL]HV RI WKH GLIIHUHQFHV EH PD\ LQGLFDWH WKDW WKH IDFWRU VWUXFWXUH RI

WZHHQ WKH JURXSV EDVHG RQ HGXFDWLRQDO HYHQ WKH UHYLVHG YHUVLRQ RI WKH /RJR7HVW

OHYHO UDQJHG IURP  WR  H[SUHVVHG E\ GRHV QRW SHUIHFWO\ PDWFK WKH WKHRUHWLFDO

&RKHQ
VGYDOXH IUDPHZRUN GHYHORSHG E\ WKH DXWKRU RI WKH

RULJLQDO WHVW )XWXUH VWXGLHV VKRXOG FODULI\

&RQVWUXFW9DOLGLW\ ZKHWKHU WKHVH ILQGLQJV GHULYH IURP DQ\

VSHFLDO FKDUDFWHULVWLFV RI RXU VDPSOH HJ

7KH/RJR7HVW5FRUUHODWHGVWURQJO\ZLWK WKH KLJK UDWH RI ZHOOHGXFDWHG \RXQJ

WKH 3XUSRVH LQ /LIH 7HVW U   S  DGXOWV RUIURPDQLQDSSURSULDWHLWHPFRP

  DQG UHODWHG VRPHZKDW PRUH ZHDNO\ SRVLWLRQ

EXW VWLOO TXLWH UREXVWO\ WR WKH 6KRUWHQHG :LWK UHJDUG WR FRQVWUXFW YDOLGLW\ /RJR

9HUVLRQRIWKH([LVWHQFH6FDOH U  7HVW5VFRUHVZHUHIRXQGWRUHODWHVWURQJO\


678',$36<&+2/2*,&$ 

ZLWK WKH RWKHU WZR PHDVXUHV RI OLIH PHDQ WUHQG SHUVRQDO LPSRUWDQFH RI H[WULQVLF

LQJVXSSRUWLQJWKHDGHTXDWHYDOLGLW\RIWKH YDOXHV KDV VXEVWDQWLDOO\ ZHDNHU UHODWLRQ

LQVWUXPHQW 7KH VWUHQJWK RI WKH DVVRFLDWLRQ VKLSV ZLWK WKH LQGLFDWRUV RI TXDOLW\ RI OLIH

ZDVWRVRPHH[WHQWVWURQJHULQWKHFDVHRI ZKHQ FRPSDUHG ZLWK WKH LPSRUWDQFH RI

WKH 3XUSRVH LQ /LIH 7HVW 3,/  FRPSDUHG LQWULQVLF DVSLUDWLRQV RU ZLWK WKH UDWLR RI

ZLWK WKH 6KRUWHQHG 9HUVLRQ RI WKH ([LV LQWULQVLFDQGH[WULQVLFDVSLUDWLRQV FI0DU

WHQFH 6FDOH (66  ZKLFK FDQ EH WUDFHG WRVHWDO 

EDFNWRWKHIDFWWKDWWKH3,/DLPVWRHYDOX 7KH ILQGLQJV FRQFHUQLQJ GHSUHVVLYH

DWHH[DFWO\WKHVDPHFRQVWUXFWDVWKH/RJR V\PSWRP VHYHULW\ DOVR FRQILUPHG RXU K\

7HVW5 ZKLOH WKH (66 LQWHQGV WR DVVHVV SRWKHVLV VLQFH ERWK WKH LQYHUVH GLUHFWLRQ

QRW RQO\ WKH SHUVRQ


V SHUFHLYHG OHYHO RI DQGWKHPRGHUDWHVWUHQJWKRILWVDVVRFLDWLRQ

PHDQLQJ LQ OLIH EXW DOVR VRPH RI WKH SHU ZLWK WKH /RJR7HVW5 VFRUHV ZHUH LQ OLQH

VRQDOLW\ SURFHVVHV HJ UHDOLW\ SHUFHSWLRQ ZLWK RXU H[SHFWDWLRQV JLYLQJ HPSLULFDO

GHFLVLRQPDNLQJDELOLWLHV QHHGHGWROHDGD VXSSRUW WR WKH GLVFULPLQDQW YDOLGLW\ RI RXU

PHDQLQJIXO OLIH .XQGL :XUVW /ÅQJOH VFDOH,WLVZRUWKQRWLQJWKDWWKHVWUHQJWKRI

/ÅQJOHHWDO  WKH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ WKH /RJR7HVW5

7KH DEVHQFH RI D VLJQLILFDQW UHODWLRQVKLS VFRUHVDQGGHSUHVVLYHV\PSWRPDWRORJ\GLG

EHWZHHQ ILQDQFLDO VWDWH DQG VFRUHV RQ WKH QRW UHDFK UYDOXHV KLJK HQRXJK WR LQGLFDWH

/RJR7HVW5 REVHUYHG LQ WKLV VWXG\ FDQ WKDW WKH WHVW LV UDWKHU DQ LQGLUHFW PHDVXUH

DOVR EH LQWHUSUHWHG DV VXSSRUWLQJ WKH FRQ RI GHSUHVVLRQ DV ZDV WKH FDVH LQ PDQ\

VWUXFW YDOLGLW\ RI WKLV OLIH PHDQLQJ PHD VWXGLHVXVLQJWKH3XUSRVHLQ/LIH7HVW HJ

VXUH DOWKRXJK )UDQNO


V K\SRWKHVLV FRQ '\FN 

FHUQLQJ WKH XQUHODWHGQHVV RI PHDQLQJ LQ $OWKRXJKZHFDQFRQFOXGHWKDWDFFRUGLQJ

OLIH DQG ILQDQFLDO VWDWH KDV KDUGO\ EHHQ WR WKH SUHVHQW GDWD WKH UHYLVHG YHUVLRQ RI

LQYHVWLJDWHG DQG ZDV QRW DOZD\V VXSSRUWHG WKH/RJR7HVWFDQEHXVHGZLWKFRQILGHQFH

E\ WKH HPSLULFDO GDWD &UXPEDXJK  WR PHDVXUH WKH PHDQLQJ LQ OLIH FRQVWUXFW

ÿ ÿ
.RQNRO  7KHJH  .RQNRO  7KHJH WKH SUHVHQW ILQGLQJV PXVW EH LQWHUSUHWHG LQ

0DUWRV    7KH UHVXOWV DOVR FRQ OLJKW RI VHYHUDO OLPLWDWLRQV 7KH VDPSOLQJ

ILUPHG RXU WKLUG K\SRWKHVLV ZLWK UHJDUG WR LQ WKLV H[DPLQDWLRQ VKRXOG EH FRQVLGHUHG

WKH H[SHFWHG PRGHUDWH SRVLWLYH FRQQHFWLRQ DVFRQYHQLHQWDQGLQWKHYDOLGLW\DQDO\VHV

EHWZHHQJHQHUDOOLIHVDWLVIDFWLRQDQGPHDQ UHODWLYHO\ VPDOO :KDW LV DOVR RI QRWH DO

LQJ LQ OLIH DVVHVVHG E\ WKH /RJR7HVW5 WKRXJK RXU LQVWUXPHQW ZDV GHYHORSHG

ZKLFK SURYLGHV IXUWKHU HYLGHQFH IRU WKH EDVHG RQ 6SDQLVK DQG +XQJDULDQ GDWD LV

FRQYHUJHQWYDOLGLW\RIWKHLQVWUXPHQW WKDW WKH SV\FKRPHWULF HYDOXDWLRQ RI WKH

2XU IRXUWK DVVXPSWLRQ ZDV DOVR VXS UHYLVHG YHUVLRQ ZDV FRQGXFWHG RQ VDPSOHV

SRUWHG E\ WKH GDWD VLQFH VFRUHV RQ WKH IURP RQH VLQJOH FRXQWU\ LQ D ODQJXDJH WKDW

/RJR7HVW5 UHODWHG PRGHUDWHO\ VWURQJO\ LV VSRNHQ E\ UHODWLYHO\ IHZ SHRSOH LQ WKH

WR WKH LPSRUWDQFH RI LQWULQVLF DVSLUDWLRQV ZRUOG7KHUHIRUHWKLVVWXG\VKRXOGEHVHHQ

DQG WR WKH UHODWLYH GRPLQDQFH RI LQWULQVLF DV DQ H[SORUDWRU\ LQYHVWLJDWLRQ DQG IXWXUH

YDOXHV RYHU H[WULQVLF DVSLUDWLRQV ,Q DGGL VWXGLHV IURP RWKHU FRXQWULHV VKRXOG H[

WLRQ WKH FRQQHFWLRQ REVHUYHG EHWZHHQ DPLQH WKH JHQHUDOL]DELOLW\ RI WKH SUHVHQW

PHDQLQJ LQ OLIH PHDVXUHG E\ WKH /RJR ILQGLQJV

7HVW5 DQG WKH LPSRUWDQFH RI H[WULQVLF $ IXUWKHU OLPLWDWLRQ RI RXU  DQG WR WKH

YDOXHV ZDV RQO\ ZHDN ZKLFK FRUUHVSRQGV EHVWRIRXUNQRZOHGJHHYHU\RWKHUVWXG\

WR D JHQHUDO WHQGHQF\ $FFRUGLQJ WR WKLV FRQFHUQLQJ WKH SV\FKRPHWULF HYDOXDWLRQ RI
 678',$36<&+2/2*,&$

DPHDQLQJLQOLIHPHDVXUHLVWKDWRQO\RWKHU %$6&85 &< 9$&&$ 02 *8(9$5$

5&(VWDQGDUL]DFLÔQSUHOLPLQDUGHO/RJRWHVW
SDSHUSHQFLO WHVWV DQG SURMHFWLYH PHWKRGV
SDUD HO DGXOWR PD\RU 7HUDSLD 3VLFRORJLFD  
QRW VSHFLILFDOO\ LQWHQGHG IRU DVVHVVLQJ

PHDQLQJIXOQHVV  ZHUH HPSOR\HG DV H[WHU %(&. $7 :$5' &+ 0(1'(/62+1 0

QDOFULWHULRQLQWKHYDOLGLW\DQDO\VHV+RZ 02&. - (5%$8*+ -  $Q LQYHQWRU\ IRU

PHDVXULQJ GHSUHVVLRQ $UFKLYHV RI *HQHUDO 3V\FKLD


HYHU XQOHVV QR PHDVXUH RI WKLV FRQVWUXFW
WU\
SDVVHV D YDOLGLW\ DQDO\VLV XVLQJ IRU LQ
%½+/(5 .( /$1' 7  %XUQRXW DQG
VWDQFH YHUEDO LQWHUYLHZV DV H[WHUQDO FULWH SHUVRQDOLW\ LQ H[WUHPH QXUVLQJ $Q HPSLULFDO VWXG\

ULRQ  ZLWK VSHFLDO UHJDUG WR OLIH PHDQLQJ 6FKZHL]HU $UFKLY IÝU 1HXURORJLH XQG 3V\FKLDWULH


DQGFRQGXFWHGE\WUDLQHGORJRWKHUDSLVWVLW
&580%$8*+ -&  &URVV YDOLGDWLRQ RI
LV GLIILFXOW WR UXOH RXW WKH SRVVLELOLW\ WKDW
3XUSRVHLQ/LIH WHVW EDVHG RQ )UDQNO
V FRQFHSWV
WKH JLYHQ LQVWUXPHQW IDLOV WR PHDVXUH WKH -RXUQDORI,QGLYLGXDO3V\FKRORJ\

HVVHQFH RI WKH PHDQLQJ LQ OLIH FRQFHSW ,Q &580%$8*+ -& 0$+2/,&. /7 

$Q H[SHULPHQWDO VWXG\ LQ H[LVWHQWLDOLVP 7KH SV\


RWKHU ZRUGV LW LV SRVVLEOH WKDW VRPH RU DOO
FKRPHWULF DSSURDFK WR )UDQNO
V FRQFHSW RI QRRJHQLF
RI WKH PHDQLQJ LQ OLIH VFDOHV GHYHORSHG XS
QHXURVLV -RXUQDO RI &OLQLFDO 3V\FKRORJ\ 
WR QRZ UDWKHU DVVHVV D VLPLODU FRQVWUXFW RU 

D PL[WXUH RI VRPH UHODWHG FRQVWUXFWV ',(1(5 ( (00216 5$ /$56(1 5-

*5,)),167KH6DWLVIDFWLRQZLWK/LIH6FDOH
VXLFLGHLGHDWLRQORFXVRIFRQWUROSRVLWLYH
-RXUQDORI3HUVRQDOLW\$VVHVVPHQW
PRRG IHDU RI GHDWK RSWLPLVP GHSUHVVLRQ
'<&. 0-  $VVHVVLQJ ORJRWKHUDSHXWLF
HWF  DV VXJJHVWHG E\ WKH KLJK QXPEHU RI FRQVWUXFWV &RQFHSWXDO DQG SV\FKRPHWULF VWDWXV RI

ÿ
FRPSRQHQWV HJ .RQNRO  7KHJH  WKH 3XUSRVH LQ /LIH DQG 6HHNLQJ RI 1RHWLF *RDOV

WHVWV&OLQLFDO3V\FKRORJ\5HYLHZ
1REOHMDV GH OD )ORU  5HNHU &RXVLQV
(':$5'6 0- +2/'(1 55  &RSLQJ
  RU E\ WKH IDFWRULDO FRQIXVLRQ HJ
PHDQLQJLQOLIHDQGVXLFLGDOPDQLIHVWDWLRQV([DPLQ
'\FN   IRXQG LQ VHYHUDO LQYHVWLJD LQJJHQGHUGLIIHUHQFHV-RXUQDORI&OLQLFDO3V\FKROR

WLRQVRQOLIHPHDQLQJPHDVXUHV7KHUHIRUH J\

)5$1./ 9(  7KH GRFWRU DQG WKH VRXO


IXUWKHU VWXGLHV VKRXOG SODFH HYHQ PRUH
)URP SV\FKRWKHUDS\ WR ORJRWKHUDS\ 7UDQV E\ 5
HPSKDVLV RQ FRQFHSWXDOL]LQJ DQG WHVWLQJ
:LQVWRQ & :LQVWRQ VW HG 1HZ <RUN $OIUHG $
WKH H[WHUQDO YDOLGLW\ RI WKH SV\FKRORJLFDO .QRSI 2ULJLQDOZRUNSXEOLVKHG 

LQVWUXPHQWV DLPLQJ WR PHDVXUH PHDQLQJ LQ )5$1./ 9(  0DQ


V VHDUFK IRU PHDQLQJ

OLIH 7UDQV E\ , /DVFK WK HG %RVWRQ %DFRQ 3UHVV

2ULJLQDOZRUNSXEOLVKHG 

*(%/(5 )$ 0¥5&.(5 $  ([SUHVVLYH


5HFHLYHG-DQXDU\
ZULWLQJ DQG H[LVWHQWLDO ZULWLQJ DV FRSLQJ ZLWK WUDX

PDWLF H[SHULHQFHV  $ UDQGRPL]HG FRQWUROOHG SLORW


5()(5(1&(6 VWXG\7UDXPD *HZDOW

*8770$11'5HVHDUFKLQWKHVHUYLFHRI

$5,021' -3 .$00(5 '  ([LVWHQ ORJRWKHUDS\ -RXUQDO GHV 9LNWRU)UDQNO,QVWLWXWV 

WLHOOH)UXVWUDWLRQ:HUWDQJOHLFKXQJXQG'HSUHVVLYLWÅW 

DOV 3UÅGLNWRUHQ YRQ 7KHUDSLHYHUODXIVEHXUWHLOXQJ XQG *8770$1 ' &2+(1 %  ([FHVVLYH

7KHUDSLHDEEUXFK EHL VWDWLRQÅUHU $ONRKROLVPXVEH EHKDYLRUV DQG PHDQLQJLQOLIH DPRQJ WKH DFWLYH

KDQGOXQJ =HLWVFKULIW IÝU .OLQLVFKH 3V\FKRORJLH  HOGHUO\ LQ ,VUDHO -RXUQDO GHV 9LNWRU)UDQNO,QVWLWXWV

 

$6$*%$ 5%  5HOLDELOLW\ DQG YDOLGLW\ RI +$/$0$ 3  5HODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ PHDQ

/RJRWHVW DPRQJ 1LJHULDQ SRSXODWLRQ $IULFDQ -RXU LQJLQOLIHDQGWKHELJILYHSHUVRQDOLW\WUDLWVLQ\RXQJ

QDOIRUWKH3V\FKRORJLFDO6WXG\RI6RFLDO,VVXHV DGXOWV DQG WKH HOGHUO\ 6WXGLD 3V\FKRORJLFD  

 

%$/&$5 .  6WDQGDUGL]DFH GRWD]QÎNX +$5/2: // 1(:&20% 0' %(17/(5

/RJRWHVW QD Y]RUNX VWXGXMÎFÎFK ÉHVNÞFK Y\VRNÞFK 30  'HSUHVVLRQ VHOIGHURJDWLRQ VXEVWDQFH

{NRO©HVNRVORYHQVNÂ3V\FKRORJLH XVHDQGVXLFLGHLGHDWLRQ/DFNRISXUSRVHLQOLIHDVD
678',$36<&+2/2*,&$ 

PHGLDWLRQDO IDFWRU -RXUQDO RI &OLQLFDO 3V\FKRORJ\ GLDWLQJHIIHFWVRISHUFHLYHGORVVRIFRQWURODQGPHDQ

 LQJOHVVQHVVLQOLIH-RXUQDORI3HUVRQDOLW\DQG6RFLDO

.$66(575<$150)XUWKHUH[DPLQ 3V\FKRORJ\

LQJ WKH $PHULFDQ GUHDP 'LIIHUHQWLDO FRUUHODWHV RI 1,&+2/621 7 +,**,16 : 7851(5 3

LQWULQVLF DQG H[WULQVLF JRDOV 3HUVRQDOLW\ DQG 6RFLDO -$0(6 6 67,&./( ) 358,77 7  7KH

3V\FKRORJ\%XOOHWLQ UHODWLRQ EHWZHHQ PHDQLQJ LQ OLIH DQG WKH RFFXUUHQFH

./©29$16.¢ ( 0$61,©¢.29¢ 0  RI GUXJ DEXVH $ UHWURVSHFWLYH VWXG\ 3V\FKRORJ\ RI

([SHULHQFLQJRIH[LVWHQWLDOPHDQLQJIXOQHVVRI6ORYDN $GGLFWLYH%HKDYLRUV

XQLYHUVLW\ VWXGHQWV 6WXGLD 3V\FKRORJLFD   12%/(-$6 '( /$ )/25 0$  0HDQLQJ

 OHYHOV DQG GUXJDEXVH WKHUDS\ $Q HPSLULFDO VWXG\

.21.2/ Ÿ 7+(*( %  'LH %H]LHKXQJ ,QWHUQDWLRQDO)RUXPIRU/RJRWKHUDS\

]ZLVFKHQ H[LVWHQ]LHOOHU )UXVWUDWLRQ XQG JHVXQG 12%/(-$6'(/$)/250$)LDELOLGDG

KHLWVVFKÅGOLFKHP 9HUKDOWHQ ([LVWHQ]DQDO\VH   GHORVWHVWV3,/\/RJRWHVW1286%ROHWÎQGH/RJRW

 HUDSLD\$QÂOLVLV([LVWHQFLDO

.21.2/ Ÿ 7+(*( % 0$5726 7  $] 3(6&+(/ +:  =XU 6LQQSUREOHPDWLN GHV

ªOHWFÊONÊUGÖÎY PDJ\DU YÂOWR]DWÂQDN MHOOHP]ÖL $ONRKROLNHUV (LQH )UDJHERJHQXQWHUVXFKXQJ PLW

0HQWÂOKLJLÊQÊÊV3V]LFKRV]RPDWLND GHP/RJR7HVWEHLPÅQQOLFKHQ$ONRKROLNHUQ6XFKW

.21.2/ Ÿ 7+(*( % 0$5726 7  JHIDKUHQ

5HOLDELOLW\ DQG YDOLGLW\ RI WKH 6KRUWHQHG +XQJDULDQ 35(%/( -%  7KH /RJR7HVW 1RUPLQJ

9HUVLRQ RI WKH ([LVWHQFH 6FDOH ([LVWHQ]DQDO\VH  H[WHQVLRQV 'LVVHUWDWLRQ 8QLYHUVLW\ RI 1HYDGD

 5HQR86$

.21.2/ Ÿ 7+(*( % %$&+1(5 <* 5(.(5 *7  0DQXDO RI WKH /LIH $WWLWXGH

.86+1,5 7 .233 06  5HODWLRQVKLS 3URILOH5HYLVHG 3HWHUERURXJK 21 6WXGHQW

EHWZHHQ PHDQLQJ LQ OLIH DQG VPRNLQJ VWDWXV 5HVXOWV 3V\FKRORJLVWV3UHVV

RIDQDWLRQDOUHSUHVHQWDWLYHVXUYH\$GGLFWLYH%HKDY 5(.(5*7&286,16-%)DFWRUVWUXF

LRUV WXUH FRQVWUXFW YDOLGLW\ DQG UHOLDELOLW\ RI WKH 6HHNLQJ

.21.2/ Ÿ 7+(*( % 0$5726 7 6.5$% RI 1RHWLF *RDOV 621*  DQG 3XUSRVH LQ /LIH 3,/

6., ¢ .233 0  $ 5×YLGÎWHWW 6WUHVV] ÊV WHVWV-RXUQDORI&OLQLFDO3V\FKRORJ\

0HJNÝ]GÊV .ÊUGÖÎY ÊOHW ÊUWHOPHVVÊJÊW PÊUÖ 5´=6$ 6 6=¢'´&=.< ( )½5(', - 

DOVNÂOÂMÂQDN %6&,/0  SV]LFKRPHWULDL MHOOHP]ÖL $ %HFN 'HSUHVV]LÔ .ÊUGÖÎY U×YLGÎWHWW YÂOWR]DWÂQDN

0HQWÂOKLJLÊQÊÊV3V]LFKRV]RPDWLND MHOOHP]ÖLDKD]DLPLQWÂQ3V\FKLDWULD+XQJDULFD

.81', 0 :8567 ( /¥1*/( $  

([LVWHQWLDODQDO\WLFDODVSHFWVRIPHQWDOKHDOWK(XUR 6&+0,7= ( +$8.( *  %XUQRXW XQG

SHDQ3V\FKRWKHUDS\ 6LQQYHUOXVW,QWHJUDWLYH7KHUDSLH

/¥1*/( $ 25*/(5 & .81', 0  6&+1(//7%(&.(533HUVRQDOLW\DQG

7KH ([LVWHQFH 6FDOH $ QHZ DSSURDFK WR DVVHVV WKH PHDQLQJ LQ OLIH 3HUVRQDOLW\ DQG ,QGLYLGXDO 'LIIHU

DELOLW\ WR ILQG SHUVRQDO PHDQLQJ LQ OLIH DQG WR UHDFK HQFHV

H[LVWHQWLDO IXOILOOPHQW (XURSHDQ 3V\FKRWKHUDS\  67$1,&+ - 2(57(1*5(1 ,  7KH /R

 JRWHVW LQ 6ZHGHQ ,QWHUQDWLRQDO )RUXP IRU /RJR

/8.$6 (6  /RJRWKHUDSLH DOV 3HUV×QOLFK WKHUDS\

NHLWVWKHRULH'LVVHUWDWLRQ8QLYHUVLWÅW:LHQ 67(*(5 0)  0HDQLQJ LQ OLIH ,Q 6-

/8.$6 (6  /RJR7HVW 7HVW ]XU 0HVVXQJ /RSH] (G  +DQGERRN RI SRVLWLYH SV\FKRORJ\ QG

YRQ LQQHUHU 6LQQHUIÝOOXQJ XQG H[LVWHQ]LHOOHU HGLWLRQ  SS   2[IRUG 2[IRUG 8QLYHUVLW\

)UXVWUDWLRQ+DQGDQZHLVXQJ:LHQ'HXWLFNH 3UHVV

0$56+ $ 60,7+ / 3,(. - 6$81'(56 67(*(50))5$=,(532,6+,6.$/(5

%  7KH 3XUSRVH LQ /LIH 6FDOH 3V\FKRPHWULF 0  7KH 0HDQLQJ LQ /LIH 4XHVWLRQQDLUH $V

SURSHUWLHV IRU VRFLDO GULQNHUV DQG GULQNHUV LQ DOFRKRO VHVVLQJ WKH SUHVHQFH RI DQG VHDUFK IRU PHDQLQJ LQ

WUHDWPHQW (GXFDWLRQDO DQG 3V\FKRORJLFDO 0HDVXUH OLIH-RXUQDORI&RXQVHOLQJ3V\FKRORJ\

PHQW 7(1$$5$*((9,56('$-$6HQ

0$5726 7 6=$%´ * 5´=6$ 6  $] WLGR GH YLGD HQ MRYHQHV XQLYHUVLWDULRV (VWXGLR GH

$VSLUÂFLÔV ,QGH[ U×YLGÎWHWW YÂOWR]DWÂQDN SV]LFKRPH VFULSWLYR3VLFRORJLD&RQWHPSRUDQHD

WULDL MHOOHP]ÖL KD]DL PLQWÂQ 0HQWÂOKLJLÊQÊ ÊV 3V]L =,.$ 6 &+$0%(5/$,1 .  2Q WKH

FKRV]RPDWLND UHODWLRQ EHWZHHQ PHDQLQJ LQ OLIH DQG SV\FKRORJLFDO

1(:&20% 0' +$5/2: //  /LIH ZHOOEHLQJ %ULWLVK -RXUQDO RI 3V\FKRORJ\  

HYHQWV DQG VXEVWDQFH XVH DPRQJ DGROHVFHQWV 0H 


 678',$36<&+2/2*,&$

$33(1',;

(QJOLVKODQJXDJHWUDQVODWLRQRIWKHUHYLVHGYHUVLRQRIWKH/RJR7HVW

>EDVHGRQWKH(QJOLVKODQJXDJHYHUVLRQRIWKHRULJLQDO/RJR7HVW 3UHEOH @

1RW 5DWKHU 1HXWUDO 0RUH 9HU\


3OHDVH LQGLFDWH WKH GHJUHH WR ZKLFK HDFK
FKDUDF QRW RUOHVV FKDUDF
RIWKHIROORZLQJVWDWHPHQWVLVFKDUDFWHULV
WHULVWLF FKDUDF FKDUDF WHULVWLF
WLFRI\RX
DWDOO WHULVWLF WHULVWLF

 , KDYH FHUWDLQ LGHDV RQ ZKDW , ZRXOG

ZDQW WR EH OLNH DQG LQ ZKDW DUHDV ,


    
ZRXOGOLNHWREHVXFFHVVIXODQG,WU\WR

UHDOL]HWKHVHLGHDVDVEHVW,FDQ

 , IHHO KDSS\ ZLWKLQ P\ IDPLO\ DQG ,

WKLQN , FDQ KHOS P\ IDPLO\ PHPEHUV     

IHHOWKHVDPH

 , ILQG IXOILOOPHQW LQ WKH ZRUN , DP HQ

JDJHG LQ RU IRU ZKLFK , DP SUHSDULQJ     

P\VHOI

 , ILQG SOHDVXUH LQ P\ KXPDQ UHODWLRQ

VKLSV DQG LQ WKH DFWLYLWLHV UHODWHG WR     

WKHP

 7KHUH LV D VSHFLDO DFWLYLW\ WKDW SDUWLFX

ODUO\LQWHUHVWVPHDERXWZKLFK,DOZD\V
    
ZDQW WR OHDUQ PRUH DQG RQ ZKLFK ,

ZRUNZKHQHYHU,KDYHWKHWLPH

,ILQGSOHDVXUHLQH[SHULHQFHVRIFHUWDLQ

NLQGVDUWVZRQGHURIQDWXUHHWFDQG     

GRQRWZDQWWRPLVVRXWRQWKHP

 , EHOLHYH LQ D UHOLJLRXV RU VRFLHWDO WDVN

RU RQH FRQQHFWHG ZLWK KXPDQ SURJUHVV     

DQGSODFHP\VHOIDWLWVGLVSRVDO

 :KHQ VXIIHULQJ ZRUU\ RU VLFNQHVV

DULVHVLQP\OLIH,PDNHJUHDWHIIRUWVWR     

LPSURYHWKHVLWXDWLRQ

$SSHQGL[FRQWLQXHV
678',$36<&+2/2*,&$ 

$SSHQGL[ FRQWLQXHG

1HYHU 5DUHO\ 2QFH 2IWHQ 9HU\


+RZ RIWHQ KDYH \RX KDG WKH IROORZLQJ H[SH
LQD RIWHQ
ULHQFHVODWHO\"
ZKLOH

7KHIHHOLQJRIKHOSOHVVDQJHUEHFDXVH\RX

WKRXJKW WKDW DOO \RX KDG GRQH VR IDU ZDV     

LQYDLQ"

 7KH ZLVK WR EH D FKLOG DJDLQ DQG WR EH


    
DEOHWRVWDUWDOORYHUDJDLQ"

 7KH REVHUYDWLRQ WKDW \RX WU\ WR SUHVHQW

\RXU OLIH WR \RXUVHOI RU RWKHUV DV EHLQJ     

ULFKHULQFRQWHQWWKDQLWUHDOO\LV"

 5HOXFWDQFH WR EXUGHQ \RXUVHOI ZLWK GHHS

DQG SRVVLEO\ XQFRPIRUWDEOH WKRXJKWV     

DERXW\RXUDFWLYLWLHVDQGGHHGV"

 7KH PRRG RI DQ[LHW\ ZKLFK RYHUFRPHV

\RX ZLWKRXW DQ\ SDUWLFXODU UHDVRQ DQG


    
ZKLFKFDXVHVDQDJRQL]LQJORVVRILQWHUHVW

LQHYHU\WKLQJWKDWFRPHVXS"

 7KH WKRXJKW WKDW DW WKH PRPHQW RI GHDWK

\RX ZRXOG KDYH WR VD\ WR \RXUVHOI \RXU     

OLIHKDGQRWEHHQZRUWKOLYLQJ"

9¾92-$36<&+20(75,&.ª+2'127(1,(

835$9(1(-0,(5<=0<6/8p,927$/2*27(675

%.RQNROÿ 7KHJH70DUWRV<*%DFKQHU7.XVKQLU

6ÛKUQ=P\VHOLYRWDMHÛVWUHGQÞPSRMPRPYÞVNXPXNYDOLW\LYRWDDYSRVOHGQÞFKGHVD~URÉLDFK

VD PX YHQRYDOD YHŸNÂ SR]RUQRV~ 7R YLHGOR N Y\WYRUHQLX QLHNRŸNÞFK PHWRGÎN QD MHKR KRGQRWH

QLH 3UYRX {NÂORX ]P\VOX LYRWD NWRUÂ EROD ]RVWDYHQÂ D {WDQGDUGL]RYDQÂ Y (XUÔSH ERO /RJR

7HVW /XNDV   1DSULHN YHŸNHM SRSXODULWH WHVWX Y (XUÔSH YLDFHUÊ YÞVNXP\ XNÂ]DOL SV\FKR

PHWULFNÛ QHGRVWDWRÉQRV~ WHMWR PHWRGLN\ D SUHWR FLHŸRP QÂ{KR YÞVNXPX EROR Y\WYRUL~ XSUDYHQÛ

YHU]LX PHWRGLN\ ]DORHQÛ QD PHG]LQÂURGQÞFK ÛGDMRFK D Y\KRGQRWL~ MHM SV\FKRPHWULFNÊ YODVW

QRVWL 9QÛWRUQÛ NRQ]LVWHQFLX D IDNWRURYÛ {WUXNWÛUX SRORNRYHM XSUDYHQHM YHU]LH /RJR7HVW

5  VPH RYHURYDOL QD Y]RUNH  0DÐDURY 9QÛWRUQÂ UHOLDELOLWD WHVWX EROD DGHNYÂWQD α   

9DOLGLWX PHWRGLN\ /RJR7HVW5 VPH RYHURYDOL QD YÞEHUH  ŸXGÎ VNÛPDQÎP MHM Y]~DKX V IL

QDQÉQRXVLWXÂFLRXYÞVOHGNDPL]GYRFKLQÞFKPLHU]P\VOXLYRWDDÐDO{ÎFKQÂVWURMRYKRGQRWHQLD

LQGLNÂWRURY NYDOLW\ LYRWD DNR VÛ Y{HREHFQÂ VSRNRMQRV~ VR LYRWRP GHSUHVÎYQD V\PSWRPD

WROÔJLD D RULHQWÂFLD QD LYRWQÞ FLHŸ 6PHU D VLOD SR]RURYDQÞFK Y]~DKRY VD ]KRGRYDOD V RÉDNÂYD

QLDPLDWÞPSRWYUGLODGREUÛNRQ{WUXNWRYÛYDOLGLWXPHWRGLN\/RJR7HVW5

You might also like