Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Halo Effect. Drawing a general impression 3. Allocate weights to the criteria. The
about an individual on the basis of a single criteria defined are rarely all equal in
characteristics. importance. The decision maker is
required to weight the previously
Contrast Effects. Evaluation of persons’ identified criteria in order to give them
characteristics that are affected by comparisons the correct priority in the decision.
with other people recently encountered who rank
higher or lower on the same characteristics. 4. Develop the alternatives. No attempts
is made in this step to appraise these
Projection. Attributing one’s own alternatives, only to list them.
characteristics to other people.
5. Evaluate the alternatives. Once the
alternatives have been generated, the
decision-maker must critically analyze
and evaluate each one
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Maximum payoff. The rational decision When you considered which college to attend,
maker will choose the alternative that did you look at every viable alternative? Did you
yields the highest perceived value. carefully identify all the criteria that were
important in your decision? Did you evaluate
each alternative against the criteria in order to
Improving Creativity in Decision Making. find the optimal college?
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The anchoring bias occurs because our mind Winner’s Curse. A decision-making dictum that
appears to give a disproportionate amount of argues that the winning participants in an
emphasis to the first information it receives. So auction typically pay too much for the winning
initial impression, ideas, prices, and estimates item.
carry undue weight relative to information
received later. Imagine, for example, that all members of your
class are bidding on a painting. Obviously, there
Confirmation Bias. The tendency to seek out will be variation in bids, and the person who
information that reaffirms past choices and to places the highest bid will receive the painting.
discount information that contradicts past Unless people grossly underestimate the value
judgments. of an item and others will overestimate it, and
the highest bidder (the winner) will be the one
The rational decision-making process assumes who overestimated the most.
that we objectively gather information. But we
don’t. We selectively gather information. The Hindsight Bias. The tendency for us to believe
confirmation bias represents a specific case of falsely that we’d have accurately predicted the
selective perception. We seek out information outcome of an event, after that outcome is
that reaffirms our past choices, and we discount actually known.
information that contradicts past judgments.
When something happens and we have
Availability Bias. The tendency for people to accurate feedback on the outcome, we seem to
base their judgments on information that is be pretty good at concluding that this outcome
readily available for them. was relatively obvious.
Representative Bias. Assessing the likelihood Personality. The studies that have been
of an occurrence by inappropriately considering conducted suggest that personality does
the current situation as identical to ones in the influence decision making.
past.
Gender. Recent research on rumination offers
Managers, for example, frequently predict the insights into gender differences in decision
performance of a new product by relating it to a making. Overall, the evidence indicates that
previous product’s success. Or if three women analyze decisions more than men do.
graduates from the same college were hired and
turned out to be poor performers, managers may Organizational Constraints
predict that a current job applicant from the
same college will not be a good employee. Performance Evaluation. Managers are
strongly influenced in their decision making by
Escalation of Commitment. An increased the criteria on which they are evaluated. If a
commitment to a previous decision in spite of division manager believes that the
negative information. manufacturing plants under his responsibility are
operating best when he bears nothing negative,
Escalation of commitment refers to staying with we shouldn’t be surprised to find his information
a decision even when there is a clear evidence doesn’t reach the division boss.
that it’s wrong.
Reward System. The organization reward
Randomness Error. The tendency of individual system influences decision makers by
to believe that they can predict the outcome of suggesting to them what choices are preferable
random events. in terms of personal payoff.
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Cultural Differences
Question for Critical Thinking
Cultures, for example, differ in terms of
orientation, the importance of rationality, their
What factors do you think differentiate good
belief in the ability of people to solve problems,
and their preference for collective decision decision makers from poor ones? Relate
making. your answer to the six-step rational model.