Course Title Probability and statistics: foundations of actuarial science

Course Code STAT2901 No. of Credits 6

Department Statistics & Actuarial Science Faculty Science

Course Coordinator(s) Prof S M S Lee (Office: RRS227)

Email smslee@hku.hk Telephone No. 3917 8323

LI Wenyu (email: liwenyu@hku.hk) / LIU Yang (email: andylau6@connect.hku.hk) /
Tutor(s)
SUN Xianlin (email: sxl1998@connect.hku.hk)
Total: 148 Learning Hours.
Learning Hours
Lecture (36hr), Tutorial (12hr), Reading / Self Study (100hr)

Student Quota No limit

Course Type Core Course

Offer in Academic Year 2nd Semester – 2022/2023

COURSE DESCRIPTION/OBJECTIVES
The purpose of this course is to develop knowledge of the fundamental tools in probability and statistics for
quantitatively assessing risk. Applications of these tools to actuarial science problems will be emphasized. Students will
have a thorough command of probability topics and the supporting calculations.

GUIDELINES ON GRADING AND STANDARDS OF ASSESSMENT

General Course Grade Descriptors
Please note: HKU has adapted standards-based assessment, thus, when using standards-based assessment as opposed
to norm-based assessment, descriptors should be established so that students are clear about what is expected of them.
Students will receive a score based on these benchmarks as opposed to a ranking based on a norm.

Demonstrate thorough mastery at an advanced level of extensive knowledge and skills required for attaining
A all the course learning outcomes. Show strong analytical and critical abilities and logical thinking, with
evidence of original thought, and ability to apply knowledge to a wide range of complex, familiar and
unfamiliar situations. Apply highly effective organizational and presentational skills.
Demonstrate substantial command of a broad range of knowledge and skills required for attaining at least
most of the course learning outcomes. Show evidence of analytical and critical abilities and logical thinking,
B and ability to apply knowledge to familiar and some unfamiliar situations. Apply effective organizational and
presentational skills.
Demonstrate general but incomplete command of knowledge and skills required for attaining most of the
C course learning outcomes. Show evidence of some analytical and critical abilities and logical thinking, and
ability to apply knowledge to most familiar situations. Apply moderately effective organizational and
presentational skills.
Demonstrate partial but limited command of knowledge and skills required for attaining some of the course
learning outcomes. Show evidence of some coherent and logical thinking, but with limited analytical and
D critical abilities. Show limited ability to apply knowledge to solve problems. Apply limited or barely effective
organizational and presentational skills.
Demonstrate little or no evidence of command of knowledge and skills required for attaining the course
F learning outcomes. Lack of analytical and critical abilities, logical and coherent thinking. Show very little or no
ability to apply knowledge to solve problems. Organization and presentational skills are minimally effective or
ineffective.
COURSE CONTENT
1. Introduction
2. Combinatorial probability
3. Probability (axioms and basic concepts in set notation)
4. Conditional probability
5. Independence of events
6. Random variables and distributions
7. Joint distribution and independence of random variables
8. Properties of distributions (moments, variance, quantiles, covariance, etc.)
9. Conditional distribution
10. Transformation of random variables (moment generating function, central limit theorem, etc.)

COURSE LEARNING OUTCOMES

On successful completion of this course, students should be able to:
1. understand the mathematical theory underlying the modern practice of statistics;
2. develop skills in probabilistic analysis for problems involving randomness;
3. apply techniques in probability and statistics to solve actuarial science problems.

COURSE TEACHING AND LEARNING ACTIVITIES

Aligned Course
Course Teaching and Learning Activities Learning
Outcomes (CLOs)
There are four contact hours weekly (lecture: 3 hours, tutorial: 1 hour)

1. Lectures 1, 2, 3
2. Assignments 1, 2, 3
3. Class Tests 1, 2, 3
4. Written Examination 1, 2, 3

COURSE ASSESSMENT METHODS

Aligned Course
Assessment Method Description Weight Learning
Outcomes (CLOs)
Coursework Assignments, tutorials and one class test. 25% 1, 2, 3
Exam One 3-hour written examination 75% 1, 2, 3

ESSENTIAL READINGS: (Journals, textbooks, website addresses etc.)

References
1) Feller, W. (1968). An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications. Wiley, New York.
2) Hassett, M. and Stewart, D. (2006). Probability for Risk Management (2nd Edition). ACTEX Publication: Winsted.
3) Hogg, R.V. and Tanis, E.A. (2009). Probability and Statistical Inference (8th Edition). Prentice Hall: Upper Saddle
River.
4) Ross, S.M. (2005). A First Course in Probability (7th Edition). Prentice Hall: Upper Saddle River.
5) Wackerly, D., Mendenhall, R. and Scheaffer, R. (2008). Mathematical Statistics with Applications. (7th Edition).
Thomson Brooks/Cole: California.
MEANS/PROCESSES FOR STUDENT FEEDBACK ON COURSE

The SETL questionnaire is one of the ways HKU courses and teaching are evaluated. HKU places significant importance on
student learning and on the continuous enhancement of teaching and learning outcomes.
Students are asked to complete this evaluation of their learning experiences at the conclusion of each course in which they
enroll. Questionnaire items relate to the overall evaluation of the course as well as an evaluation of teaching.
Regular feedback on the course is requested from students through email and the moodle forum.

CETL Ver. 1.1 2 1/13/2023

COURSE POLICY (including plagiarism, academic honesty, attendance etc)

Unless otherwise stated, the normal course administration policies and rules of the Faculty of Science apply. For the policy,
see http://www.ss.hku.hk.
The University Regulations on academic misconduct will be strictly enforced. Please refer to
http://www.hku/hk/student/plagiarism/ for further details. In addition, students should familiarise themselves with
http://lib.hku/hk/turnitin/.

DEPARTMENT'S POLICY ON ABSENCE FROM CLASS TEST

If for any reason you are or have been unable to attend a mid-term/class test, and if you wish to have a supplementary mid-
term/class test,
(a) all full-time students (including MStat students) should write to the General Office of the Department of Statistics
and Actuarial Science giving reasons for your absence;
(b) all part-time students should write to the course instructor giving reasons for your absence, within 7 days of the
absence.
A special/supplementary test is normally granted to those absent from the original test due to illness and with original
medical certificate provided. Students absent due to other reasons are not granted a special/supplementary test unless with
very special circumstances and with valid documental proofs provided.

CETL Ver. 1.1 3 1/13/2023