42187

Maritime Transport
(or, “and now for something completely
different!”)

Harilaos N Psaraftis
Professor
Management Science
DTU Management
Readings (browse)

•2013 Christiansen et al (EJOR)

•2014 Meng et al (Tr. Sci.)
•2021 Psaraftis et al (MARTRA)
•2022 Lagouvardou et al (Tr. Res. Part D)
•2022 Lagouvardou & Psaraftis (MARTRA)

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Content overview

•Part I: Intro. to maritime transport

•Part II: Problems and models
•Part III: Climate change

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About myself

•PhD, MIT (USA), 1979 •RESEARCH INTERESTS

•Assistant & Associate Professor,
MIT, 1979-1989 •Shipping & port logistics
•Professor, NTUA (Greece), 1989- •Intermodal logistics
2013 •Green logistics
•Professor, DTU (Denmark),2013 •Vehicle routing
to date
•Etc
•CEO, Port of Piraeus, 1996-2002

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Part I: Intro to maritime transport

Maritime transport carries

• ~80% of volume of world trade
• ~70% of value

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World freight by transport mode

• By volume

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World freight by transport mode ii

• By value

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Some statistics from UNCTAD
(and other sources)
•UNCTAD=United Nations •Palais des Nations, Geneva,
Conference on Trade and Switzerland
Development

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Maritime trade
• Source: UNCTAD

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EU

MARITIME TRANSPORT

•~90% of EU’s external trade

•Q: Which mode is the top transporter of EU internal trade?

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 Intra EU-27 freight
by transport mode
• Source: EU Statistical Pocketbook 2022

GROWTH 1995-2020

• ROAD 54.8%
• SEA 36.6%
• RAIL 0.7%
• INLAND NAV. 14.6%

• AIR 45.4% !

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 Maritime transport cont’d

•Key factor in world trade

•Key factor of development of
many countries
•Source of income in many
countries
•Safe, environment-friendly
mode

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Types of ships
Tankers

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Types of ships ii

Bulk carriers

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Types of ships iii
Containerships

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Types of ships iv

Roll-on roll-off (RoRo)

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Types of ships v

RoPax (ferries)

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Types of ships vi
Cruise ships

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Types of ships vii
Liquefied natural gas (LNG)
Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG)

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Types of ships viii

Hydrofoil, catamaran

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Types of ships ix

Chemical, product carrier

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Types of ships x

Barge

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Types of ships xi
•Miscellaneous

•Naval vessels
•Fishing vessels
•Offshore supply vessels
•Recreational vessels
•Etc etc etc!

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 Taxonomy

•Passenger vs. cargo

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 Taxonomy ii

•Deepsea vs shortsea Deepsea: from continent to

continent (long distance)

Shortsea: otherwise

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 Taxonomy iii
•Tramp vs Liner •Tramp
–No regular routes
–Bulk cargoes

•Liner
–Regular routes
–Unitized cargoes

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Ports
•Broad diversity
•Many sizes
•Many types
•No “one size fits all”

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Container ship port calls and maximum ship sizes, 2020

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Container ship port calls and time in port, 2020

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Median time in port, number of port calls, and maximum vessel
sizes, per country, container ships, 2020

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 (TEU: Twenty foot Equivalent Unit)
World TEUs

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Part II: Problems and models

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Christiansen et al. (2013)

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Basic coverage
•Catalogs 131 references

•Liner shipping
•Industrial and tramp shipping
•Sailing speed optimization
•Etc (optimal bunkering, offshore logistics, etc).

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Liner shipping

•Refer to Meng et al. (2014)

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Arc flow formulation
•Pickup and delivery
•Max profit
•2 kinds of cargoes
–Mandatory cargoes
–Spot cargoes

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Maritime inventory routing
•Industrial shipping
•Min cost
•Inventory balancing
constraints

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Sailing speed optimization
•Q: are ship speeds fixed? •Those who pay for the fuel
(ship owner or charterer)
•A: By no means!! determine ship speed as a
function of basically 2
inputs:
•Ships do NOT trade at
predetermined speeds
•Freight rate
•Fuel price

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Speed tradeoffs
•A higher speed will be •BUT: A higher speed will
more costly in terms of earn more money per unit
fuel consumption time (haul more cargoes)
•Hence, it makes sense to
•FC vs speed: highly optimize it!
nonlinear

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Meng et al. (2014)
•93 references

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Taxonomy of liner problems

3 PLANNING LEVELS

•STRATEGIC

•TACTICAL

•OPERATIONAL

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Strategic level

•Long planning horizons (several •Fleet size and mix

years) •Alliance strategy
•Network design

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Fleet size and mix

• QUESTION: what is the best mix for a

company’s fleet in the years ahead?

• How big?
• How fast?
• How many?

• Design new vessels

• Retrofit existing vessels

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Alliance strategy
•QUESTION: which other liner companies should we ally with?

•Purpose of alliances?

•Pricing of services (SOS: Beware of price fixing)

•Pooling or revenues
•Pooling of resources
•Better coordination

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Alliances 1995-2015

• Courtesy Theo Notteboom

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The big 3

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Network design

• QUESTION: what should our

network look like?

• Which ports?
• Which routes?
• Which hubs?

• Mainline vs feeder
• Direct calls vs hub and spoke
• Hinterland/intermodal networks

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Tactical level

•Intermediate planning horizon (a •Frequency determination

few months to a year) •Fleet deployment
•Speed optimization
•Schedule construction

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Frequency determination

•QUESTION: How frequent a

service?

•Daily?
•Weekly?
•Other?

•Why is frequency important?

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Fleet deployment

•QUESTION: which ships are

deployed to which routes?

•‘Cascading’

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Speed optimization

•BASIC QUESTION: what speed is

optimal?

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Schedule construction

•QUESTION: what is the detailed

schedule of the line?

•Planned arrival and departure

times

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Operational level

•Short term planning horizon (a

few days) •Container booking & routing
•Rescheduling & disruption
management
•Weather routing
•Stowage planning
•Berth allocation

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Container booking & routing

•QUESTION: Given an origin-

destination (O-D) pair for a
specific cargo,

•On what ship(s) the cargo will

travel?
•What will the routing be?

•What to do with empty

containers?
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Rescheduling & disruption management
•QUESTION: How to reschedule if unexpected events occur?

•Bad weather
•Port congestion
•Port strikes

•Planned rescheduling: how to orderly manage the transition

between 2 different network configurations

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Weather routing

•Choose optimal path of ship

under uncertain and dynamically
varying weather conditions

•Projects BlueSiros and SIMOS at

DTU

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Part III: climate change

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The sustainability
imperative
• Source: UNCTAD

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 APRIL 2018, MEPC 73

Initial IMO strategy

CENTRAL AMBITION

• Reduce annual GHG emissions by ≥

50% by 2050 (vs 2008 levels)
• Reduce annual CO2 emissions per
transport work by ≥ 40% by 2030,
pursuing efforts towards 70% by 2050 (vs
2008 levels)

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Disturbing trend
4th IMO GHG study 2020 QUESTIONS

•What to do to reverse the trend?

•What to do to reach the 2050
reduction target?

• CO2 equivalent emissions have increased

from 977 million tonnes in 2012 to 1,076
million tonnes in 2018 (a 9.6% increase).

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More recent stats

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Carbon intensity (CO2/transport work)

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Initial IMO Strategy
LONG LIST OF
CANDIDATE MEASURES
SAMPLE MEASURES

• SHORT TERM (until 2023) Combined EEXI/SEEMP/CII measure

• MEDIUM TERM (2023-2030) Market Based Measures

• LONG TERM (2030-2050) Alternative fuels

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IMO action on GHGs

•EEDI (2011)
•Market Based Measures (2010-2013)
•Initial IMO Strategy (2018 on)

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EEDI: Energy Efficiency Design Index

• Adopted: July 2011 • Fierce resistance by China, India,

• Adopted as an amendment to Brazil, Saudi Arabia and other
MARPOL’s Annex VI developing countries
• Matter highly political

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Energy Efficiency Design Index (EEDI)

• Defined as

• Numerator: Ship’s CO2 emissions

• Denominator: Ship’s transport work

• Units: Grams of CO2 per ton-mile

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Reference line EEDI

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Market Based Measures (MBMs)

•11 MBM proposals at MEPC 60 (March 2010)

•Expert Group formed by IMO Sec. General
•Feasibility study (300-page report)
•Work: May- August 2010
•Report presented at MEPC 61 (Sep. 2010)
•Various discussions since then

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How does an MBM work?

•The “polluter pays” principle

•Each polluter should pay for his/her own pollution

•Pay a price equal to marginal social cost of pollution
•Internalization of external costs

•Enter MBMs

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MBMs in non-maritime modes

•Road tolls
•River tolls
•Congestion charging in some cities (London, Singapore)
•Eurovignette
•EU ETS for airlines

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‘Logistics based’ example

• Impose a Levy on bunker fuel

• Induces ships to slow steam
• CO2 is a non-linear function of speed
• Slow steaming will reduce CO2 emissions

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CO2 vs levy

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‘Technological’ example

• What can an MBM induce ship owners to do in the long run?

• An MBM will induce a ship owner to buy an energy efficient ship,

or a ship that uses low or zero carbon fuels

• Better do this than pay the MBM

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What else can an MBM do?

•Collect money to reduce

GHG emissions elsewhere

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In-sector vs out-of-sector
In-sector Out-of-sector

•Direct reduction of emissions •Indirect reduction of emissions

(eg, reduce speed due to a fuel (eg, use the money to build a
tax) wind farm in New Zealand)

•(offsetting)

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Offsetting
ICAO

•Carbon Offsetting and

Reduction Scheme for
International Aviation
(CORSIA)

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CORSIA offsetting

•A typical example of a carbon offset is paying an additional

charge to make a traveler’s trip carbon neutral. All major
airlines offer such an arrangement.
•Making such a payment is of course on a voluntary basis.

•NOTE: Some shipping companies (eg CMA CGM) offer such a

scheme

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CORSIA offsetting ii
•Among out-of-sector decarbonization actions, planting
trees figures centrally within the CORSIA scheme.

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MBM discussion at the IMO

•Suspended in 2013, mainly for political reasons

•Restarted only in 2022

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Initial IMO Strategy (2018)

• Vision: IMO remains committed to reducing GHG emissions from

international shipping and, as a matter of urgency, to phasing them out as
soon as possible.

• Levels of ambition:
– total GHG emissions from international shipping should peak as soon as possible
and total annual GHG emissions should be reduced by at least 50% by
2050 compared to 2008, while, at the same time, pursuing efforts towards phasing
them out entirely.
– reduce CO2 emissions per transport work, as an average across international
shipping, by at least 40% by 2030, pursuing efforts towards 70% by 2050,
compared to 2008;

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Which countries opposed it?

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Which countries opposed it?

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 Recent developments (after 2018)

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Initial IMO Strategy (2018)
LONG LIST OF
CANDIDATE MEASURES
SAMPLE MEASURES

• SHORT TERM (until 2023) Combined EEXI/SEEMP/CII

• MEDIUM TERM (2023-2030) Market Based Measures

• LONG TERM (2030-2050)

Alternative fuels

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Short-term measures

•MEPC 76 (June 2021) adopted a combined EEXI/SEEMP/CII

measure

•EEXI (Energy Efficiency Existing Ship Index): Apply EEDI to

existing ships

•SEEMP: Ship Energy Efficiency Management Plan

•CII (Carbon Intensity Indicator): CO2 per transport work

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Carbon Intensity Indicator (CII)

•Critical for the 2030 target (≥ 40% reduction)

•Ratio of
–CO2 emitted by a ship in a year
–Transport work of that ship in that year

•Ships rated by CII: A B C D E

Bad (high CII)

Good (low CII)

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June 2021 IMO decision

•Set a gradual, nonlinear CII reduction scale of 1% per annum

until 2023, followed by
•a 2% per annum reduction between 2023 and 2027,
•and leaving further CII reductions until 2030 open, to be
considered and decided a part of a review by 2026.

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Two ways to measure CII
AER (supply-based) EEOI (demand-based)
Annual Efficiency Ratio Energy Efficiency Operational
Indicator

•Ratio of CO2 divided by •Ratio of CO2 divided by

(DWT*miles sailed) in a actual tonne-miles
year carried by the ship in a
year
•Need to know detailed
cargo info to compute it
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Further CII reductions needed to reach
the 2030 target
If AER is used If EEOI is used

•22% •11%
TO BE USED

Source: 4th IMO GHG study

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Is CII a good index?

•Can manipulate CII to achieve compliance,

but increase CO2 in the process

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 Is CII a good index?

•CII has a lot of noise

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Is CII a good index?

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MBMs in the Initial IMO Strategy

•Included under medium term measures.

•But only OBLIQUELY:

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MBM discussion restarted
MEPC 79 (December 2022)
•Many delegations supported a "levy", "reward", "feebate" or "flat
rate contribution" approach
•EU-27+ EC: fuel standard + levy
•Norway (ETS): not gaining support

•US: not in favor of economic measures

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The IMO MBM agenda

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The IMO MBM agenda ii

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Enter the EU!

•Upon taking office (summer

2019), the new European
Commission President Ursula
von der Leyen said that she
wants shipping into the EU
ETS!

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• Sept. 2020

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14 July 2021
• (581 pages)

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EU ETS: latest package
•The inclusion would involve
–CO2 emissions from all intra‐EU trips
–50% of CO2 emissions from trips between non‐EU and EU
ports, and
–All at‐berth EU ports CO2 emissions.

•(note: this is the Commission’s proposal)

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Main ETS challenges
Price uncertainty Administrative burden

• EU carbon price. Source: FT

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 March 2022

• Switch to non-EU
transshipment hubs close to
the EU just to avoid paying
into the EU ETS

• Risk of carbon leakage

• Risk of lost ETS revenue

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Risk of evasion & carbon leakage

Commission’s version Parliament and Council

(7/2021) versions (6&7/2022)

•Pretty much discounted risk of •Explicitly recognize such

transshipment hub relocation risk
•Included no provisions to •Include substantial
mitigate it provisions to mitigate it

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Plugging the transshipment hub loophole

•Exclude from the definition of a •A list of non-EU container hubs

"port call" all non-EU container that pose such a risk would be
transshipment ports that are compiled and updated on a
within 300 nautical miles of the yearly basis.
EU.

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What does this mean?

•If the ship comes from •Q: Does this plug the
Singapore, transships at Tanger loophole?
Med, and then goes to
Rotterdam, the entire trip from •A: Not so sure!
Singapore to Rotterdam will
count for EU ETS purposes

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• Port Elizabeth > Durban >
Cape Town > Port Tangier
> Rotterdam > London
Gateway > Bremerhaven >
Rotterdam > Algeciras >
Port Elizabeth

Replace with Tanger

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The EU “trilogue”
•They have agreed!
•The final detailed text will
be available spring 2023
•2024 is first reporting year
•Companies will surrender
emission allowances
starting April 2025
•Starts with well-to-tank,
possibly well-to-wake from
2026

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Possible flows reconfiguration

•Same may happen to

deep-sea shipping with a
global MBM (levy or ETS)

•China’s Belt-and-Road
Initiative

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 1
2
3

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Which is the best MBM?

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 Summary comparison, levy vs ETS

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 1
2
7

Recent PhD: MBM SUSHI

Market Based Measures for Sustainable Shipping

• PhD project (2019-2023): Sotiria Lagouvardou

• Objective: develop a Market Based Measure (MBM) scheme by which
greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from international shipping can be reduced
by at least 50% by 2050 as compared with 2008 levels.
• Funding:

• Advisory Committee:

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Recent ITF/OECD report
Released: Dec. 2022

•Cites 10 of our papers

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Some useful links
• United Nations Conference on Trade and Development: www.unctad.org
• International Maritime Organization: www.imo.org
• European Commission: http://europa.eu.int
• European Commission, Directorate General for Transport & Energy (DG-MOVE):
http://ec.europa.eu/transport/index_en.htm
• European Community Shipowners Association (ECSA): www.ecsa.be
• European Shippers Council (ECS): www.europeanshippers.com
• European Sea Port Organisation (ESPO): www.espo.be
• International Chamber of Shipping (ICS): http://www.ics-shipping.org/
• International Association of Ports and Harbors (IAPH): www.iaphworldports.org
• World Ports Climate Initiative (WPCI): http://wpci.iaphworldports.org/
• World Ports Sustainability Program (WPSP): https://sustainableworldports.org/
• Federation of European Private Port Operators (FEPORT): www.feport.be
• European Federation of Inland Ports (FEPI): www.inlandports.be

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 Our papers (sample)
• Bektas, T., Ehmke, J. F., Psaraftis, H.N., Puchinger, J., 2018, The role of operational research in green freight transportation, European Journal of Operational Research,
doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2018.06.001.
• Topali, D., Psaraftis, H.N., 2019, the Enforcement of the Global Sulphur Cap in Maritime Transport, Maritime Business Review, doi.org/10.1108/MABR-12-2018-0050
• Zis, T., Psaraftis, H.N., Panagakos, G., Kronbak, J., 2019, Policy measures to avert possible modal shifts caused by Sulphur regulation in the European Ro-Ro sector, Transportation
Research Part D 70, 1–17.
• Psaraftis, H. N., 2019, Ship routing and scheduling: the cart before the horse conjecture, Maritime Economics and Logistics, Volume 21, Issue 1, pp 111–124.
• Psaraftis, H.N., 2019, Speed Optimization vs Speed Reduction: the Choice between Speed Limits and a Bunker Levy, Sustainability, 11, 2249; doi:10.3390/su11080000
• Lindstad, E., Borgen, H., Eskeland, G., Paalsson, C., Psaraftis, H.N., Turan, O., 2019 The Need to Amend IMO’s EEDI to Include a Threshold for Performance in Waves (Realistic Sea
Conditions) to Achieve the Desired GHG Reductions, Sustainability 11, 3668; doi:10.3390/su11133668.
• Psaraftis, H.N., 2019, Speed Optimization vs Speed Reduction: are speed limits better than a bunker levy? Maritime Economics and Logistics 21, 524–542, doi.org/10.1057/s41278-019-
00132-8
• Panagakos, G., de Sousa Pessoa, T., Barfod, M., Desypris, N., Psaraftis, H.N., 2019, Monitoring the Carbon Footprint of Dry Bulk Shipping in the EU: An Early Assessment of the MRV
Regulation, Sustainability, 11, 5133; doi:10.3390/su11185133.
• Psaraftis, H.N., Lagouvardou, S., 2019, Market Based Measures for the reduction of green house gas emissions from ships: a possible way forward, Samfundsøkonomen 4/19, 60-70.
• Psaraftis, H.N., Kontovas, C.A., 2020, Influence and Transparency at the IMO: the Name of the Game. Maritime Economics and Logistics, Vol. 22, issue 2, 151-172.
• Wang, S., Zheng, L., Psaraftis, H.N., 2020, Three potential benefits of the EU and IMO’s landmark efforts to monitor carbon dioxide emissions from shipping, Frontiers of Engineering
Management, https:// doi.org/10.1007/s42524-020-0096-2
• Lagouvardou, S., Psaraftis, H.N., Zis, T., 2020, A Literature Survey on Market-Based Measures for the Decarbonization of Shipping, Sustainability, 12(10), 3953;
doi.org/10.3390/su12103953
• Tillig, F., Ringsberg, J., Psaraftis, H.N., Zis, T., 2020, Reduced environmental impact of marine transport through speed reduction and wind assisted propulsion, Transportation Research Part
D, 83, DOI: 10.1016/j.trd.2020.102380.
• Zis, T., Psaraftis, H.N., Ding, L., 2020, Ship weather routing: a taxonomy and survey, Ocean Engineering, vol. 213, DOI: 10.1016/j.oceaneng.2020.107697.
• Zis, T., Psaraftis, H.N., Tillig, F., Ringsberg, J., 2020, Decarbonizing maritime transport: A RoPax case study. Research in Transportation Business and Management, Volume 37, December
2020, 100565.
• Rødseth, Ø. J., Psaraftis, H.N., Krause, S., Raakjaer, J., Coelho, N.F. 2020, AEGIS: Advanced, Efficient and Green Intermodal Systems, IOP Conference Series, Materials Science and
Engineering, 929 012030, presented at the 3rd International Conference on Maritime Autonomous Surface Ship (ICMASS 2020) 11-12 November 2020, Ulsan, South Korea.
• Psaraftis, H.N., Kontovas, C.A., 2021, Decarbonization of maritime transport: Is there light at the end of the tunnel? Sustainability 13, 237. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13010237
• Psaraftis, H.N., Zis, T., 2021, Impact assessment of a mandatory operational goal-based short-term measure to reduce GHG emissions from ships: the LDC/SIDS case study, International
Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10784-020-09523-2
• Zisi, V., Psaraftis, H.N., Zis, T., 2021, The impact of the global sulfur cap on CO2 emissions, Maritime Business Review, https://doi/10.1108/MABR-12-2020-0069
• Wang, S., Zheng, L., Psaraftis, H.N., Yan, R., 2021, Implications of the EU’s inclusion of maritime transport in Emissions Trading System for shipping companies, Engineering,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eng.2021.01.007
• Psaraftis, H.N., Zis, T., Lagouvardou, S., 2021, A comparative evaluation of Market Based Measures for shipping decarbonization, Maritime Transport Research,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.martra.2021.100019
• Zis, T., Psaraftis, H.N., 2021, Impacts of short-term measures to decarbonize maritime transport on perishable cargoes, Maritime Economics and Logistics, https://doi.org/10.1057/s41278-
021-00194-7
• Wang, S., Psaraftis, H.N., Qi, J., 2021. Paradox of International Maritime Organization's carbon intensity indicator. Communications in Transportation Research 1, in press.
• Lissilour, R., Fulconis, F., Psaraftis, H.N., 2021, A Nomos Perspective of Shipping Service Industries, European Review of Service Economics and Management, in press.

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 2019 book

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 Thank you very much!!
hnpsar@dtu.dk

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