Trend Analysis of Sanitation Service Users in Urban

Areas of India: Examining Access, Quality, and

Sustainability
Rajat Singh 
(

Rajatsingh087@gmail.com
)
University Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology Bhopal
Vinay Mohan Das 
University Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology Bhopal

Research Article

Keywords: Sanitation, CAGR, Sustainability, Unhygienic practices, ULB

Posted Date: May 25th, 2023

DOI: https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-2939139/v1

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Abstract
This research paper examines the growing trend of sanitation service users in urban areas of India and
how it compares to the rate of urbanization. In India, the provision of basic urban sanitation services is
the responsibility of the Urban Local Bodies (ULBs). However, these ULBs have often been unable to
provide these services in all parts of the city, leading to the development of unsustainable alternative
options by local communities. An examination of the existing service users in urban areas revealed
valuable information on how the growth of service users has changed over the past 20 years, with a
decrease in unhygienic sanitation practices being observed. The major areas of focus were access to
urban sanitation service quality, type of service delivery, and wastewater discharge systems. The literature
reviewed provided insight into the sustainability aspects of services by highlighting several factors that
affect access to sanitation services, including distance, settlement size, population density, economic
condition, production/resource location, service charge, improper planning, and people's acceptance of
infrastructure. Data collected on these areas were used for comparative growth trend analysis of the
sustainable services with the growth rate of other alternative infrastructures developed by people. The
study also examines the impact of the Swachh Bharath (Clean India) Mission on urban sanitation service
users and finds that the growth rate of unhygienic sanitation services decreased more rapidly following
the launch of the Swachh Bharath Mission. The study aims to identify the current practices of sanitation
services in urban areas of India and forecast the number of users for these services in the next 20 years.
This projection is based on the mathematical calculation of the Compound Average Growth Rate (CAGR).
Additionally, the study identifies environmentally harmful service delivery systems in the field of
sanitation, examines their growth trends, optimistically predicts the year in which these services will no
longer exist, and prescribes the growth rate of services needed to achieve this situation along with the
associated cost.

1 Introduction
Urban sanitation is a critical issue in many countries, including India, due to rapid urbanization and
population growth. This has led to a significant increase in the demand for sanitation services, such as
waste management and sewage treatment. However, many cities in India struggle to provide adequate
sanitation services to their citizen due to a lack of infrastructure and resources. The high population
density in urban areas exacerbates this problem, as there is simply not enough space to accommodate
the growing number of people. Additionally, informal settlements and slums, which are home to a large
proportion of the urban population, often lack basic sanitation facilities. This has led to poor living
conditions and a range of health problems, particularly in low-income areas. India, being a developing
country, had limited access to good quality sanitation services up till recent years. The first international
effort for the improvement of sanitation was made in 1970 without many results, the said endeavor
peaked during Swachh Bharat Mission in 2016.(Wankhede, K, Balakrishnan, K, Vushnu et al. 2014). A
survey conducted by the WHO Joint Monetary program (JMP) in 2020 states that the urban population in

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the year 2020 was approximately 481 million (JMP, n.d.), which is a sharp increase from the 2011 census
report of 377 million ( comprising 31.16 % of the ttal population).

The goal of this paper's trend analysis is to acquire a better knowledge of the existing situation and
evolution of urban sanitation services in India. The emphasis is on the availability of these services for
Indian urban residents and how it compares to the global urban scenario.

Environmental issues in urban India include water pollution, solid waste management, and inadequate
sanitation facilities. International guidelines, such as the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) set by
the United Nations, emphasize the importance of access to basic services in eradicating poverty and
improving overall well-being. For example, Sustainable Development Goal No. 6 (SDG 6) focuses
specifically on ensuring access to water and sanitation for all (United Nations 2016).

1.1 Methodology
This paper utilizes data from the WHO Joint Monitoring Program (JMP), obtained through a request sent
via email on 25th August 2022. The data covers 20 years from 2000 to 2020 and includes information on
water supply, sanitation, and hygiene. The analysis focuses specifically on the growth of sanitation
services in urban areas of India and uses this information to predict the number of users up to 2040. The
goal is to identify a year by which users will no longer engage in environmentally harmful practices. This
paper conducts a predictive study on the accessibility of sanitation services for urban residents in India.
By using CAGR, the study forecasts future trends in urban regions of India. The findings of the analysis
provide valuable insights into the challenges facing urban sanitation in India and can aid in developing
policies and interventions to enhance access to sanitation services for urban residents in India.

1.2. Literature Review

A literature review was done to identify and elucidate the problems of urban sanitation in India. Access to
urban improved sanitation services with an emphasis on existing conditions and factors affecting
accessibility and their impact like economic development, human development, quality of life, etc. The
accessibility of services in a city is inversely related to distance from the CBD (Das, Das, and Barman
2019). This relation behaves contrary when the size of a city increases (Sahasranaman and Bettencourt
2021), the consequences of which are suffered by low-income groups. Achieving SGD 6 targets for 2030
is not possible, with this existing trend and condition, the global targets would not be met (Momentum
n.d.). Though the private infrastructure has already been developed in India the government authorities
are unable to deliver their services. (Aberilla et al. 2020)(Agrawal, Srivastava, and Nigam 2019).

The factors affecting the access to urban services, as stated by the researchers, are Distance, Settlement
size, Population density, Economic condition, Production/resources location (because of less
transmission loss), Service charge, Improper planning, and People's acceptance of infrastructure.

Existing literature studies have already established a strong positive correlation between access to basic
urban services, such as sanitation, and the Human Development Index (HDI) (Paper and Nallathiga
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2016). The lack of access to these services disproportionately affects economically weaker sections of
society, (Sahasranaman and Bettencourt 2021) as well as individuals living in small cities and peripheral
areas.(Das, Das, and Barman 2019) These individuals often face greater challenges in terms of access to
basic services, which can have a negative impact on their overall well-being and quality of life. It's
important to note that lack of access to sanitation can lead to many health issues and diseases,
therefore, working towards increasing access to sanitation can lead to a better health scenario.

1.3 Growth rate

Growth rates are the percentage changes in a given variable over a certain period. Depending on whether
the magnitude of the variable is growing or reducing over time, growth rates can either be positive or
negative. Growth rates are used to calculate the yearly percent change in a variable. A variable's growth
rate—positive or negative—indicates whether it is rising or decreasing with time. Growth rates can be used
to forecast performance in the future. (Growth Rates: Formula, How to Calculate, and Definition n.d.), For
this study, we have used Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR).

Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) – It is the value's average annual growth rate during a period
longer than a year. This denotes the exponential change in value. It represents one of the most accurate
ways to calculate anything whose value might increase or decrease over time. (Compound Annual
Growth Rate: What Is CAGR? n.d.). In the context of sanitation in India, the growth rate is the rate of
improvement in sanitation facilities, open defecation, and access to improved sanitation services.

The formula for finding CAGR

CAGR = (EV/BV)1/n -1 x 100

And the formula for population forecasts using CAGR: -

F(x) = EV x (1 + CAGR) n

where:

EV = Ending value, BV = Beginning value, n = Number of years​interval

(CAGR - Learn How to Calculate Compound Annual Growth Rate n.d.)

2 Global scenarios
Ensuring access to clean sanitation for all is a key objective of the UN Sustainable Development Goals.
Despite this, many individuals, particularly those living in rural areas of developing nations, still lack basic
sanitation services (Aberilla et al. 2020). According to WHO in the year 2020 global population is
expected to be 7.79 billion in the year 2000, 21% of the global population practiced open defecation,
which decreased to 6.33% in 2020 (JMP n.d.). Despite progress made in increasing access to clean
sanitation, millions of people, particularly in rural areas of developing nations, still lack basic sanitation
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services. A significant number, over 494 million people worldwide, still practice open defecation (Water
and Sanitation – United Nations Sustainable Development n.d.) (Sanitation n.d.). 14.27% of the world's
population does not have access to basic sanitation facilities (JMP n.d.).

Globally in 2020, a significant portion of domestic wastewater, 45%, was released into the environment
without proper treatment. It is believed that food grown with this untreated wastewater is consumed by at
least 10% of the population. Poor sanitation not only affects human health but also hinders social and
economic growth. A 2012 study by the WHO found that investing in sanitation yielded a return of $5.50
for every $1 spent in the form of decreased healthcare expenses, increased productivity, and fewer
preventable deaths (Sanitation n.d.).

WHO tracks global usage of sanitation services and provides data to its members to aid in decision-
making on how and where to invest in better services. As a leading public health organization, WHO
directs efforts to stop the spread of disease by advising governments on health-based legislation and
service provision. (Water and Sanitation – United Nations Sustainable Development n.d.). Overall it can
be concluded that the current state of sanitation is not good there is room for improvement in the
sanitation conditions.

Figure 1 Global access to sanitation service users (JMP n.d.).

2.1 Global urban sanitation service users

Individuals and households in urban areas who have access to and utilize sanitation services are referred
to as urban sanitation service users. Access to the use of toilets, sewage systems, and waste disposal
services are all included. The proportion of the urban population that has access to and uses appropriate
sanitation services is frequently used as an indication of a city's or country's level of sanitation service
supply. Inadequate access to urban sanitation services disproportionately impacts vulnerable and low-
income people, posing health and environmental dangers. To enhance public health and enable
sustainable urban growth, it is critical to ensure that all urban people have access to and use adequate
sanitation facilities (JMP n.d.)

According to the Fig. 2 In the year 2020 global urban population is expected to be 4.37 billion. The
practice of clean sanitation has increased from the year 2000 to 2020 with a growth rate of 2.63%. In the
year 2000, 87% of the global urban population had access to improved services, and by 2020, that
number had risen to 95.65%. Unhealthy sanitation practices have also decreased over the past two
decades with a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of -3.28%. This indicates that there is an
increasing trend of clean sanitation practices and a decrease in unhealthy practices over the period of 20
years.

3 India urban sanitation service users

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In urban India, access to sanitation services might be limited, especially for low-income people who may
not be able to connect to the municipal sewage system or pay for private services. Many Indian cities,
particularly slums and informal settlements, lack basic sanitary infrastructure such as toilets and sewage
systems. This can lead to a dependency on open defecation, which can contribute to poor public health
and contamination of the environment (Sahasranaman and Bettencourt 2021).

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), 83.36% of the Indian population has access to basic
sanitation in 2020, with 16.63% utilizing open defecation and unimproved sanitation. However, the
situation is significantly better in urban areas, with 98.58% of the population having access to improved
sanitation facilities and just 1.41% using open defecation and unimproved sanitation (WHO/UNICEF JMP
n.d.).

It is important to note that while open defecation and poor sanitation have declined in India, there is still a
significant population that prefers open defecation, particularly in urban areas. India continues to have
the largest urban population that practices open defecation worldwide, with 4.76 million people still
practicing it. Despite the government's efforts to improve sanitation through schemes like Swachh Bharat
Abhiyan, much work remains to be done to improve the existing conditions of sanitation in urban India
and to ensure that all residents have access to adequate sanitation services (WHO/UNICEF JMP n.d.).

The data in Fig. 3 represents the coverage of basic sanitation services, limited sanitation services, open
defecation, safely managed services, and unimproved sanitation services for the years 2000 to 2020. The
coverage of basic and limited sanitation services increased over the years, while open defecation
decreased. The coverage of safely managed services showed a general upward trend, but with
fluctuations. The coverage of unimproved sanitation services decreased significantly over the years. And
there also seems to be a significant portion of the population that still practices open defecation. In
general, there has been an improvement in access to basic and improved sanitation services over the 20
years, although the level of access still needs to be increased to ensure universal access to improved
sanitation.

Table 1
Compound annual growth rate of access to sanitation services from the
year 2000 to 2020.
S.no   CAGR CAGR (India urban)

(Global urban)

1. Safely managed service 3.78% 5.49

2. At least basic 0.75% 4.81%

3. Limited service 2.21% 3.11%

4. Unimproved -2.24% -11.29%

5. Open defecation -5.86% -13.05%

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Table 1 shows that access to improved sanitation facilities is growing at a faster rate in India compared
to the global urban population. While the number of people practicing open defecation is decreasing in
both populations, the decline is more significant in India. The growth of "at least basic" and "safely
managed service" facilities is higher in India compared to the global urban population. On the other hand,
the number of people using "unimproved" facilities is declining faster in India compared to the global
urban population. Overall, the data highlights the progress being made toward improving sanitation
facilities in India, though there is still room for improvement.

3.1 Centralized & decentralized Sewage Disposal Systems

Centralized sewage systems are typically large-scale treatment plants that collect and treat wastewater
from a large population or industrial area. The treated wastewater is then discharged into the
environment or reused. Centralized sewage systems are designed to handle large volumes of wastewater
and can provide a high level of treatment and purification (NITI AYOG 2022).

Decentralized sewage systems are small-scale treatment systems that are located closer to the source of
wastewater generation. OSWT (On-Site Wastewater Treatment) systems such as pit latrines, septic tanks,
and DEWATS are typically used for partially treating wastewater in individual residences or small clusters
of houses. Either it treats the sludge on-site or uses a pump to empty tanks and takes the sludge to the
treatment plant. Decentralized systems can range from simple septic tanks to more complex treatment
systems that use biological and chemical processes to treat wastewater. Decentralized systems are
designed to handle smaller volumes of wastewater and are often used in rural areas or areas where
access to a centralized sewage system is limited (Centre, Engineering, and Madras 2012).

There are benefits and drawbacks to both centralized and decentralized sewage systems. Centralized
sewage systems can provide a high level of treatment and filtration, but they are costly to construct and
operate. Decentralized sewage systems are more adaptable and can be positioned closer to the source of
the effluent, but they may have limited treatment capacity and need additional maintenance. The decision
between centralized and decentralized sewage systems will be determined by a variety of criteria,
including population density, availability of land, construction cost, And operation & maintenance costs.

Decentralized sewage systems may not be the best solution for urban areas due to several factors. The
cost of installation and maintenance can be high, particularly in densely populated areas. Space
constraints and complex regulations can also pose challenges in urban areas. The limited treatment
capacity of decentralized systems can result in the need for multiple systems, which can be expensive
and difficult to manage. Additionally, operating and maintaining these systems requires a high level of
technical expertise, which may be limited in urban areas. These factors should be taken into
consideration when deciding whether to implement a decentralized sewage system in an urban area.

Decentralized sewage systems may not be the optimal solution for urban areas. Installation and
maintenance costs might be prohibitively expensive, especially in highly populated areas. Space limits
and complicated laws may also be a problem in urban settings. Due to the limited treatment capacity of
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decentralized systems, numerous systems may be required, which may be costly and difficult to operate.
Furthermore, managing and maintaining these systems require a high degree of technical competence,
which may be in short supply in urban settings. When considering whether to install a decentralized
sewage system in an urban region, several aspects should be considered.

3.2 Global urban sewage disposal systems users

The Urban Sanitation service user mention above which comes into the categories of "least basic,"
"limited service," and "safely managed service" are considered to be using hygienic sanitation services.
These services include the use of soak pits, septic tanks, and sewers for fecal waste disposal.

soak pit - It is a covered chamber with permeable walls that allows water to gradually seep into the
earth. (What is Soak Pit? & its Purposes | Civilclick n.d.). Soak pit is also a decentralized system with
onsite treatment, but it doesn't involve a tank and uses natural filtration through the soil. (Centre,
Engineering, and Madras 2012)
Septic tank - It is an underground sedimentation container used to treat wastewater through
biological decomposition and discharge water into drains. (What Is A Septic Tank & How Does It
Work? | D-tox n.d.). The septic tank is a decentralized system with onsite treatment. (Centre,
Engineering, and Madras 2012)
Sewer – It is a centralized system A substantial pipe, typically underground, is used to transport grey
water and fecal matter from buildings to a location where they can be safely disposed of (SEWER |
definition in the Cambridge English Dictionary n.d.)

The data of Fig. 4. represents the number of global urban safely managed disposal system users for the
years 2000 to 2020. It covers three types of disposal systems: soak pits, septic tanks, and sewer systems.
The data shows a consistent increase in the number of users of all three types of disposal systems over
the years. The number of soak pit users increased from 281 million in 2000 to 478 million in 2020, while
the number of septic tank users increased from 448 million to 894 million over the same period. The
number of sewer system users increased from 1.76 billion to 2.82 billion over the same period.

The positive trend in the global use of hygienic sanitation disposal systems. This suggests that more
people have access to proper disposal facilities, which benefits public health and the environment.
However, there is always potential for development, as these services may not be available in every part
of urban areas.

3.3 Most commonly used hygienic sewage water disposal

system in Indian cities.
In India, urban areas rely on a combination of centralized and decentralized sewage treatment systems to
manage and treat wastewater. The choice of system depends on several factors, such as the city's size,
population, infrastructure availability, and financial resources of local authorities. Mumbai uses a
centralized sewage treatment system, with underground pipelines transporting sewage to a central plant

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in the suburbs with a capacity to treat 2,300 MLD (Mechanical n.d.). Bengaluru, on the other hand,
employs a decentralized system with small-scale treatment plants dispersed throughout the city
(Akhavan and Fernandez 2017). Delhi has a hybrid system, utilizing both centralized and decentralized
treatment depending on the area's needs (NITI AYOG 2022). Chennai also has a centralized system but
encourages onsite treatment in individual households and buildings to alleviate the burden on the
centralized system and prevent untreated sewage discharge (Deepa and Krishnaven 2015) (Narayan,
Fischer, and Lüthi 2020).

Centralized sewage treatment plants (STPs) are the most often utilized sewage treatment technology in
urban areas. These facilities are intended to treat enormous amounts of wastewater generated by
households, commercial entities, and industries. STPs utilize a combination of physical, chemical, and
biological processes to remove pollutants and pathogens from wastewater, resulting in treated effluent
that may be safely released into the environment or reused for non-potable applications.

In smaller cities, towns, and rural areas, the installation of centralized STPs can be difficult and expensive
due to a lack of infrastructure and funding. In these cases, decentralized sewage treatment systems, such
as DEWATS (Decentralized Wastewater Treatment Systems), can provide a more suitable solution.
DEWATS is designed to be installed at or near the source of the wastewater, reducing the need for
transportation and the associated costs and environmental impacts. DEWATS uses a combination of
physical, chemical, and biological processes to treat wastewater at the local level, producing treated
effluent that can be safely discharged into the environment or used for non-potable purposes.

3.4 Indian urban sewage disposal systems users.

The septic tank system is the most widely used method in Indian urban areas, where 52.12% of the
population used this method to discharge sewage waste in 2020. The outlet of the septic tank discharges
water into surface drains. However, the use of soak pits is becoming less popular in urban areas, with a
decrease in the proportion of users from 14.18% in 2000 to 13.22% in 2020. Additionally, 34.64% of the
Indian urban population uses sewers to discharge their fecal waste. Sewers are a more sustainable
option for sewage treatment compared to soak pits and septic tanks. They are connected to a centralized
treatment facility for proper sewage treatment, prevent pollution, reduce odors, require less space, and
although more expensive to install and maintain, offer long-term benefits such as prevention of pollution
and safe treatment of sewage.

From Fig. 5 it appears that there has been an increase in the number of households with access to soak
pits, septic tanks, and sewer systems from 2000 to 2020. The number of users of sewer systems and
septic tanks is consistently higher than that of soak pits. This suggests that more households are opting
for on-site sanitation solutions such as soak pits and septic tanks, rather than being connected to
centralized sewer systems.

It can be concluded that there has been a general improvement in access to sanitation facilities over the
past two decades, with more households having access to on-site sanitation solutions such as soak pits

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and septic tanks, and an increase in the number of households connected to sewer systems. However, it
is important to note that the data only shows the number of households with access to these facilities
and not the quality or functionality of those facilities. It may be necessary to ensure that these facilities
are properly maintained and functioning to ensure proper sanitation.

Table 2
Compound annual growth rate safely managed disposal
system from the year 2000 to 2020.
S.no   CAGR CAGR (India urban)

(Global urban)

1. Soak pits 2.69% 4.27%

2. Septic tank 3.50% 4.66%

3. Sewer 2.37% 4.74%

Table − 2, Shows that the use of wastewater treatment systems is growing at a faster rate in India
compared to the global urban population. This suggests that there is an increasing demand for proper
wastewater treatment in India and the country is making progress in this area. It is important for countries
to properly treat their wastewater to prevent environmental degradation and maintain public health.

4 Impact of Swachh Bharat Mission

The Swachh Bharat Mission (SBM) is a government initiative in India that aims to improve access to
sanitation services and eliminate open defecation. Launched on October 2, 2014, the program promotes
hygiene and cleanliness and includes components such as the construction of toilets, implementation of
waste management systems, and campaigns to promote behavior change related to sanitation.

The data in Table 3 shows that there has been a rapid decline in open defecation and the use of
unimproved sanitation methods in urban areas, as evidenced by the negative Compound Annual Growth
Rate (CAGR) of 13.05% and 11.29% from 2000 to 2020. The 20-year urban population Compound Annual
Growth Rate (CAGR) is 2.53%. This suggests that individuals who previously practiced open defecation or
used unimproved sanitation methods in urban areas have now shifted to the safely managed limited and
basic services category.

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 Table 3
Change in the growth rate of the urban sanitation services accessibility caused by the Swachh Bharat
Mission.
Year Basic Limited Open Safely managed Unimproved Urban
service service defecation service population

2000– 4.92% 3.43% -5.28% 5.75% -5.02% 2.28%

2014

2014– 4.55% 2.40% -28.79% 4.69% -24.36% 2.34%

2020

Before the launch of the Swachh Bharat Mission, the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of open
defecation and the use of unimproved sanitation methods was − 5.28% and − 5.02% respectively, from
2000 to 2014. However, following the launch of the Swachh Bharat Mission, the CAGR of open defecation
decreased significantly to -28.79% and the CAGR of unimproved sanitation decreased to -24.36% from
2014 to 2020

Table 4
Change in the growth rate of hygienic sanitation
services accessibility caused by the Swachh Bharat
Mission.
Year Soak pit Septic tank Sewer

2000–2014 5.22% 4.66% 4.97%

2014–2020 2.10% 4.67% 4.24%

As per Tabel 4, It appears that there has been an overall increase in the number of households with
access to soak pits, septic tanks, and sewer systems from 2000 to 2020. However, the rate of growth for
soak pits and sewer systems slowed down after the launch of the Swachh Bharat Mission in 2014. The
rate of growth for septic tanks remained consistent before and after the launch of the mission. The rate
of growth for unhygienic sanitation facilities decreased significantly after the launch of the mission
which is 27%. The problem with soak pits and septic tanks, which are considered hygienic services, is that
they are not sustainable in the long run and can have negative effects on the environment. Septic tanks
can be useful with decentralized methods of sewage management.

5 Analysis & Result

The projection of consumers for the next 20 years from 2020 to 2040 is done using CAGR. The reason for
selecting compound average growth rate for projection is that data from the year 2000 to 2020 is
available. Data from 2000 to 2010 is used to forecast consumers of the year 2020 by using the arithmetic
mean growth rate, Geometric progression, linear regression, and Compound Annual Growth Rate. 

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 Table 5
Projected population for the year 2020 using WHO data from the year 2000 to 2010 various methods.
S.no Population Projected Population The population of Least deviation from
projection for the year 2020 2020 As per WHO 2020Population
method
x̄ lxi - x̄l

1 Arithmetic 47,12,03,516 48,19,80,320 1,07,76,804

progression

2 Geometric 51,30,57,731 48,19,80,320 3,10,77,411

progression

4 CAGR 48,89,45,013 48,19,80,320 69,64,693

5 Linear regression 47,11,06,063 48,19,80,320 1,08,74,257

The results of forecasting for the year 2020 using CAGR are closest to the actual number of users in
2020. There have been several studies conducted on the use of CAGR to forecast urban population
growth in India, including a study by the United Nations (UN), which used CAGR to estimate the growth of
the urban population in India from 1950 to 2030. The study found that the CAGR of the urban population
in India was 2.54% between 1950 and 2020.

Another study conducted by the Indian Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs found that CAGR is an
effective tool for estimating urban population growth in India, and is widely used by policymakers and
urban planners for urban planning and development purposes.

5.1 Forecasted condition of sanitation in India

The projected Indian urban population in 2040 is 1.2 Billion, with a Compound Annual Growth Rate
(CAGR) of -13.05% expected to result in a reduction of the practice of open defecation. By 2040, it is
projected that only 290382 individuals in the urban population will still practice open defecation which is
around 0.02% of the projected population. The use of unimproved sanitation methods is also expected to
decline at a CAGR of -11.29%, with 185458 individuals expected to still utilize such methods in 2040
which is 0.01% of the projected population. Despite these challenges, it is expected that nearly all of the
urban population in India, or 99.96%, will have access to improved sanitation facilities. According to the
observed growth trend, it is anticipated that unimproved sanitation services will have fewer than 1000
users by 2084 and open defecation will be eliminated by 2081.

Figure 7 shows the percentage of the Indian urban population with different levels of sanitation services
in the years 2000, 2020, and 2040 the data on Indian urban sanitation services show significant progress
over the past two decades. The percentage of the population with basic and safely managed services has
increased while the percentage of those practicing open defecation and in the unimproved category has
declined. These trends are expected to continue, with a projected increase in the percentage of the

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population with basic and safely managed services and a decline in the percentage of limited
unimproved and open defecation users in the next two decades.

5.2 Forecasted wastewater disposal system users in Indian

cities.
In the year 2000, 14.18% of the population used soak pits for sewage discharge, 51.89% used septic
tanks, and 33.92% used sewers. In the year 2020, there was a slight decrease in the proportion of the
population using soak pits, which was 13.22%. However, the proportion of the population using septic
tanks and sewers increased slightly to 52.12% and 34.64% respectively. By 2040, the proportion of the
population using soak pits is expected to decrease further to 12.32%, while the proportion of the
population using septic tanks and sewers is expected to increase to 52.32% and 35.35% respectively.

It can be inferred that the population proportion of users of different infrastructures for sewage discharge
has not seen a significant change in the period between 2000 and 2040. The CAGR for all the
infrastructures is more than 4% from 2000 to 2040. This suggests that while there is a shift in the
proportion of the population using different infrastructures, the change is not drastic. It could be possible
that the government or the responsible authorities are working towards upgrading the infrastructure but
the progress is slow

The forecasted values for the soak pit, septic tank, and sewer systems are shown in the data. Using the
Compound Annual Growth Rate, the expected growth in the usage of these systems is presented from
2020 to 2040. The data illustrates the increase in the number of users of soak pits, septic tanks, and
sewer systems from the year 2000 to 2040. The trend demonstrates a steady growth in the usage of
these systems over time. By 2040, the number of soak pit users is expected to reach 145.11 million, the
number of septic tank users is projected to be 616.23 million, and the number of sewer system users is
forecasted to be 416.33 million. The forecasted values for the soak pit, septic tank, and sewer systems
are shown in the data. Using the Compound Annual Growth Rate, the expected growth in the usage of
these systems is presented from 2020 to 2040. The data illustrates the increase in the number of users of
soak pits, septic tanks, and sewer systems from the year 2000 to 2040. The trend demonstrates a steady
growth in the usage of these systems over time. By 2040, the number of soak pit users is expected to
reach 145.11 million, the number of septic tank users is projected to be 616.23 million, and the number of
sewer system users is forecasted to be 416.33 million.

Based on Fig. 9 it can be observed that the majority of Indian urban users rely on septic tanks for fecal
disposal, with a percentage of 51.89% in the year 2000, which increased slightly to 52.12% in 2020 and is
expected to remain around 52.32% in 2040. The use of sewers for fecal disposal has also increased from
33.92% in 2000 to 34.64% in 2020 and is expected to reach 35.35% in 2040. However, it is still not the
most popular option among Indian urban users. Soak pits, on the other hand, have seen a decline in
usage over the years, with a percentage of 14.18% in 2000, which decreased to 13.22% in 2020 and is
expected to further decrease to 12.32% in 2040.

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5.3 Prescriptive growth rate for wastewater disposal system
urban users
The growth rate of soak pits, septic tanks, and sewage users is higher than the population growth rate in
urban areas, which can lead to two outcomes. Firstly, the growth rate of these services will eventually
decrease and align with population growth. Secondly, a sudden spike in population growth can also
increase the use of these services, as seen over the past 20 years (2000–2020). In both cases, the
number of soak pit and septic tank users will increase. However, with proper action, the use of these
systems can be reduced uns in the future.

To reduce the use of septic tanks and soak pits in urban areas of India, the government can launch a
scheme similar to the Swach Bharat Mission which will involve several actions:

1. Implement regulations that require the use of more advanced wastewater treatment systems, such
as municipal sewer systems, in new construction and developments.
2. Create financial incentives, grants, or low-interest loans for homeowners to upgrade their existing
septic systems to more advanced treatment systems.
3. Develop and implement regulations that require regular inspections and maintenance of septic
systems and soak pits to ensure they are functioning properly and not causing pollution.
4. Develop a comprehensive wastewater management strategy in partnership with municipal
governments and the corporate sector.
5. Raise public knowledge of the environmental and health concerns of septic tanks and septic tanks,
as well as the advantages of upgrading to more sophisticated treatment systems, through education
and outreach initiatives.
6. Identify areas where septic systems and soak pits are more likely to cause pollution and prioritize
these areas for upgrades.

It is important to note the specific actions needed to reduce septic tank and soak pit use in India. It will
depend on the local conditions and regulations in each community, and government should consult with
local stakeholders to make sure the actions are appropriate and effective.

Each of the three presented scenarios for sanitation disposal service users in urban India over the next 40
years focuses on the elimination of a specific service user group within the same population.

Case 1

Business as Usual

The current trend of increasing usage of soak pit and septic tank systems in urban areas of India, with a
20-year CAGR of 4.27% for Soak pits and 4.66% for septic tanks respectively. Additionally, sewer usage
has also been increasing with a CAGR of 4.75%.

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Case 2

Improvement interventions: 2

It is suggested that appropriate actions are taken to reduce the growth rate of these services as much as
possible. By eliminating environmentally harmful service users, it is projected that the population will not
be exceeded. On that basis, the prescriptive CAGR for soak pits, septic tanks, and sewage users, will be
-6.2% for Soak pits, -8.2% for septic tanks, which will result in the need for a 7.2% CAGR for sewer
respectively.

Figure 12 Forecasted Sanitation disposal service users if Soak pit and Septic tank users are eliminated.
5.4 Wastewater generation Uptown 2040
The total number of urban users up to 2040 is expected to be 1.2 billion

According to the CPHEEO manual, it is estimated that 80% of the water supply will reach the sewers it
recommends minimum design consideration of 100 liters of wastewater generated per capita per day
(CPHEEO 2012)

Therefore, the estimated sewage generation up to 2040 is calculated to be 1207758203 x 100 = 

120775.82 MLD (million liters per day).
5.5 New Sewage users in 2040 & their Sewage generation.
Let B be the total number of urban users up to 2040 and C be the number of sewer users up to 2020.
Then, the number of urban users who will use the decentralized sewage disposal system (A) can be
expressed as:

A = B - C

Given that:

B = 1207758203

C = 164621139.7

Thus,

A = B - C = 1207758203 − 164621139.7 = 1043137063

There will be 1.04 billion new users in the year 2040. In terms of wastewater generation, it is estimated
that an average of 100 liters of water per capita per day will be generated. Hence, the required capacity of
the treatment plant can be calculated as:

Wastewater generation = A * 100 = 1043137063 * 100 = 104313706300 litres per day

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This can also be expressed as 104313.70 MLD (million liters per day).
5.6 Cost of developing Sewer infrastructure for new users
In 2011, the High-Powered Expert Committee (HPEC) presented a report for estimating the investment
requirements for urban infrastructure services in India, as per the Ministry of Urban Development. The
report stated that the per capita investment cost for sewerage infrastructure was 4704 rupees.
Additionally, it mentioned that the annual per capita cost for operations and maintenance was 286
rupees. (Ahluwalia 2011) 

 
Table 6
Cost of developing Sewer infrastructure
S.no Sewage infrastructure Per capita Total cost in millions of
cost Rupees
1. Per Capita Investment 4704 4906916.74

2. Per Capita Operations and Maintenance Cost 286 298337.20

(annual)

5.7 Treatment plant recommendation & its requirements

Activated sludge treatment is a popular and highly efficient solution for treating municipal wastewater in
India. Through its biological process using microorganisms, organic matter in the wastewater is broken
down, resulting in treated effluent that exceeds discharge standards. This method is versatile, energy-
efficient, and generates low amounts of sludge, making it an environmentally friendly, cost-effective, and
sustainable option. By relying on biological processes, the need for chemical additions is minimized,
reducing the risk of chemical contamination. The high treatment levels, energy efficiency, versatility, low
sludge production, and minimal chemical use all contribute to making activated sludge treatment a top
choice for municipal wastewater treatment. Thus, it is selected for further calculation.

According to the National River Conservation Directorate Ministry of Environment & Forests Government
of India & URDPFI guidelines.

the capital cost of developing Activated sludge treatment in India ranges from 2–4 million per MLD

O&M cost 0.3–0.5 Million /year/ MLD

The energy required 180–225 KWh/ML

Land required 0.15–0.25 Ha/MLD. (Tare and Bose 2009).

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 Table 7
Requirements for developing treatment plant up to 2040 for uses.
s.no Requirements Lower Range Upper Range

1. capital cost For Municipal Wastewater treatment 208.63 billion 417.26 billion

plant rupees rupees

2. O&M cost (annual) 31.30 billion 52.16 billion

rupees rupees

3. Energy required 18776.46 MW/h 23470.58 KW/h

4. Land required 15647.055 Ha 26078.425 Ha

As per the Ministry Of Urban Development India “Handbook Of Service Level Benchmarking,” the Extent of
reuse & recycling of treated Wastewater is 20% (Haider, Sadiq, and Tesfamariam 2016) indicates that
20% of the treated wastewater is being reused or recycled for other purposes, while the remaining 80%
may be discharged into the environment or otherwise disposed of. Even if 20% is achieved will result in
20862.74 MLD water reclaimed which is approximately 12.8% of the expected domestic water demand.
(another country example)

6 Conclusion & Discussion

Urban sanitation service users, individuals, and households in urban areas who have access to and use
toilets, sewage systems, and waste disposal services, are crucial to the improvement of public health and
the support of sustainable urban growth. The proportion of urban residents with access to adequate
sanitation services is often used as an indicator of sanitation service provision in a city or country. In
recent decades, the trend of clean sanitation practices has risen, with a 2.63% growth rate and a decrease
in unhealthy practices with a CAGR of -3.28%. Ensuring all urban dwellers have access to proper
sanitation services is essential for improving public health and supporting sustainable urban growth.

In India, access to sanitation services in urban areas is a significant concern, particularly for low-income
residents who may not have proper facilities. The situation in urban areas is better, with 98.58% of the
population having access to improved sanitation and only 1.41% practicing open defecation or using
unimproved facilities. Despite this progress, India still has the largest population in the world practicing
open defecation, with 4.76 million people relying on it. However, data shows that access to improved
sanitation facilities is increasing faster in India compared to the global urban population. Over the past
20 years, access to basic and improved sanitation services has improved, but there is still a need for
increased access to ensure universal access to improved sanitation. The government's efforts through
initiatives like Swachh Bharat Abhiyan are commendable, but more work remains to be done to improve
sanitation services in India.

The sewage treatment systems used in Indian cities vary depending on the city's size, population, and
available infrastructure and resources. In large cities and metropolitan areas, centralized sewage

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treatment plants (STPs) are the most common treatment method. In smaller cities, towns, and rural areas,
decentralized systems such as DEWATS or septic tanks are often used. The septic tank system is the
most widely used method in Indian urban areas, with 52.12% of the population using it in 2020. Sewers
are used by 34.64% of the urban population and are considered a better and more sustainable option
compared to soak pits and septic tanks due to better treatment and less pollution. The use of soak pits is
decreasing in urban areas, with a decrease in users from 14.18% in 2000 to 13.22% in 2020, indicating a
trend towards safer and more sustainable sewage disposal methods.

The use of septic tanks and soak pit systems in urban areas can result in soil and groundwater pollution.
These systems are not designed to treat or remove pollutants from wastewater and can cause pollutants
to seep into the soil and groundwater, posing a threat to the environment and human health. Leakages in
the sewage system can also result in similar problems, but technology like SCADA can mitigate these
issues. SCADA systems can monitor and control sewage flow and detect leaks, which can then be quickly
repaired, minimizing pollution. However, in the case of soak pits and septic tanks, it is difficult to monitor
and improve the system as they are typically located on private property and not connected to a
centralized monitoring system. Additionally, the design, construction, and maintenance of these systems
are often inadequate, making it challenging to detect and repair leaks or other problems. As a result, the
environmental impact of soak pits and septic tanks can be significant and difficult to mitigate

The Swachh Bharat Mission has made a considerable impact on access to and utilization of sanitation
services in India. Evidence suggests that the initiative has resulted in a substantial decline in open
defecation and utilization of inadequate sanitation methods in urban areas, concurrent with an increase
in the usage of safely managed sanitation services. Despite some challenges, the mission demonstrates
that a concerted effort to enhance sanitation services can positively influence the health and well-being
of residents and highlights the ongoing importance of addressing inadequate sanitation in India.

A projection of consumers from 2020 to 2040, utilizing the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR),
predicts that 99.96% of the Indian urban population will have access to improved sanitation facilities by
2040. However, the population proportion of users relying on different infrastructures for sewage
discharge is not expected to significantly change between 2000 and 2040. The forecasted values for
soak pit, septic tank, and sewer systems display a positive growth trend from 2021 to 2040, with a higher
growth rate for septic tank and sewer compared to soak pit. Nevertheless. To reduce the use of septic
tanks and soak pits in urban India, the government can implement various schemes, such as regulations,
financial incentives, a comprehensive wastewater management plan, increased public awareness, and
identification of areas for upgrades. It is crucial to consult local stakeholders to effectively tailor specific
actions to local conditions and regulations.

The analysis presented highlights the significant challenges that India will face in managing the rapidly
increasing wastewater generation up to 2040. With an estimated 1.2 billion urban users, the projected
sewage generation is a staggering 120,775.82 MLD. The study suggests that the best solution for treating
municipal wastewater is the activated sludge treatment method, which is efficient, energy-saving, and

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environmentally friendly. However, developing the necessary infrastructure for sewage disposal and
treatment is a massive undertaking that requires substantial investments in capital, operation and
maintenance, energy, and land. The estimated cost for developing sewer infrastructure (capital cost) for
new users up to 2040 ranges from 4906.91 billion rupes with an O&M cost of 2.98 billion rupes per year.
The capital cost for developing an activated sludge treatment plant is estimated to be between
208.63 billion rupees and 417.26 billion rupees, with an O&M cost of 31.30 billion rupees to 52.16 billion
rupees per year. Achieving the extent of reuse and recycling of treated wastewater of 20% can result in
20862.74 MLD of water reclaimed, which is approximately 12.8% of the expected domestic water
demand. Addressing wastewater management will require a comprehensive and concerted effort from
policymakers, stakeholders, and communities to safeguard public health and protect the environment

Declarations
I am writing to submit my article entitled ‘Trend Analysis of Sanitation Service Users in Urban Areas of
India: Examining Access, Quality, and Sustainability.’ for publication in the Journal of “Journal of
Environmental Management”. This manuscript is based on a chapter of my doctoral thesis, supervised by
Dr. Vinay Mohan Das, and has not been published or submitted elsewhere for consideration. It has not
been published elsewhere and that it has not been submitted simultaneously for publication elsewhere.

We declare that there are no competing interests and the research presented in this manuscript was not
funded by any organization or external entity. The data that supports the findings of this study are
available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request. 

Aknowledgment
I would like to express my sincere appreciation to the WHO/UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme for
Water Supply, Sanitation and Hygiene (JMP) for providing the estimates and figures used in this research.
The JMP's dedication to monitoring progress in drinking water, sanitation, and hygiene has been
invaluable to this study.

Authors’ Contributions

In this research paper, both authors, Mr. Rajat Singh and Dr. Vinay Mohan Das, have made valuable
contributions. Mr. Singh has primarily contributed to the visual elements of the paper, including figures,
tables, and forecasting analysis. Dr. Das, on the other hand, has contributed by suggesting the concept of
protective analysis.

Mr. Rajat Singh's contribution involved the preparation and design of figures and tables that are essential
for presenting the research findings effectively. Additionally, he conducted forecasting analysis to provide
insights and predictions related to the research topic. His expertise in data visualization and analytical
skills significantly enhanced the clarity and understanding of the results presented in the paper.

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Dr. Vinay Mohan Das played a crucial role in introducing the concept of protective analysis to the
research. His suggestion brought a new perspective to the study and contributed to the development of a
more comprehensive framework. Protective analysis, as proposed by Dr. Das, has provided a valuable
lens through which the research problem can be examined, offering insights and solutions that may have
otherwise been overlooked.

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Figures
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Figure 1

Global access to sanitation service users (JMP n.d.).

· SAFELY MANAGED - Use of improved facilities that are not shared with other households and where
excreta is safely disposed of in situ or transported and treated off-site.

· BASIC - use of improved facilities that are not shared with other households.

· LIMITED - Use of improved facilities shared between two or more households.

· UNIMPROVED - Use of pit latrines without a slab or platform, hanging latrines, or bucket latrines.

· OPEN DEFECATION – Disposal of human feces in fields, forests, bushes, open bodies of water, beaches,
and other open spaces or with solid waste (Sanitation | JMP n.d.)

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Figure 2

Global urban access to sanitation service users (JMP n.d.).

Figure 3

Indian urban users' access to sanitation services users (JMP n.d.).

Figure 4

Wastewater Disposal system in Global urban areas.

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Figure 5

Wastewater Disposal system in Indian urban areas (JMP n.d.).

Figure 6

Forecast of sanitation services in Indian urban areas up to 2040.

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Figure 7

Change in sanitation service users in Indian urban areas.

Figure 8

Forecasted Indian Urban users of safely managed disposal systems up to 2040.

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Figure 9

Change in sanitation discharge options for users in Indian urban areas.

Figure 10

Forecasted Sanitation disposal service users if current CAGR continues.

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Figure 11

Figure 12 Forecasted Sanitation disposal service users if Soak pit and Septic tank users are eliminated.

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