Probability

Ms Nurazrin Jupri
 Ms Nurazrin Jupri

Probability is the chance that something will

happen. It is a measure of likelihood and can be
stated as a percentage, a ratio, or more usually
as a number from 0 to 1.

Consider the following.

• Probability = 0 = impossibility
• Probability = 1 = certainty
• Probability = 1/2 = a 50% chance of something
happening
• Probability = 1/4 = a 1 in 4 chance of something
happening
 Ms Nurazrin Jupri

What is probability?
• A probability is the chance that something will
happen.
• Eg:
▫ (a) I am 100% confidence that I will pass the
exam.
▫ (b) About 50% of the staff are not satisfied with
their salary.
▫ (c) The chance for you to win this battle is very
low.
 Ms Nurazrin Jupri

Experiment

• An experiment is a situation involving chance

or probability that leads to results called
outcomes.
• Eg:
▫ 1. Rolling a fair die.
▫ 2. Tossing a coin.
▫ 3. Choosing a student from the class.
 Ms Nurazrin Jupri

Outcomes

• An outcome is the result of a single trial of an

experiment.
• Eg:
▫ 1. Getting a ‘1’ in a rolling of a fair die.
▫ 2. Getting a ‘head’ in a tossing of a coin.
 Ms Nurazrin Jupri

Sample Space, (S)

• is the set of all possible outcomes of an

experiment.
• Eg:
▫ 1. All the outcomes for the experiment ‘Rolling a
fair die’: 𝑆 = 1,2,3,4,5,6
▫ 2. All the outcomes for the experiment ‘Tossing a
coin’: 𝑆 = 𝐻, 𝑇
▫ 3. All the outcomes for the experiment ‘Choosing a
student from the class’: _____________
 Ms Nurazrin Jupri

Example 1
• List the sample space for the following
experiment. An experiment of
▫ Tossing two coins
▫ Tossing three coins
For each of the experiment above, show the
presentation of outcomes in table and tree
diagram
 Ms Nurazrin Jupri

• Tossing two coins

By table
Coin 1 H H T T
Coin 2 H T H T

By tree diagram
H ……… HH
H T ……… HT

T H ……… TH
T ……… TT
𝑆 = 𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝑇
 Ms Nurazrin Jupri

• Tossing three coins

By table
Coin 1
Coin 2
Coin 3

Coin 1 H H H H T T T T
Coin 2 H H T T H H T T
Coin 3 H T H T H T H T

𝑆 = 𝐻𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝐻𝑇, 𝐻𝑇𝐻, 𝐻𝑇𝑇, 𝑇𝐻𝐻, 𝑇𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝑇𝑇

 Ms Nurazrin Jupri

By tree diagram

H ……… HHH
H T ……… HHT
H T H ……… HTH
T ……… HTT
T H H ……… THH
T T ……… THT
H ……… TTH
T ……… TTT
𝑆 = 𝐻𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝐻𝑇, 𝐻𝑇𝐻, 𝐻𝑇𝑇, 𝑇𝐻𝐻, 𝑇𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝑇𝑇
 Ms Nurazrin Jupri

Event

• An event is one or more outcomes that may

occur.
• Is a subset of sample space.
• Eg:
▫ 1. Getting even numbers for the experiment
‘Rolling a fair die’. E = 2,4,6
▫ 2. Getting multiplies of 3 for the experiment
‘Rolling a fair die’. M3 = 3,6
▫ 3. Getting long hair students for the experiment
‘Choosing a student from the class’._______
 Ms Nurazrin Jupri

Complement
• The complement of an event A with respect to S
is the subset of all elements of S that are not in
A.
• The complement of A denoted by symbol A’
s

𝑆 = 𝐴 ∪ 𝐴′
Venn diagram
 Ms Nurazrin Jupri

Example 2
• Let
𝑆 = 𝐴𝑙𝑔𝑒𝑏𝑟𝑎, 𝐶𝑎𝑙𝑐𝑢𝑙𝑢𝑠, 𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑐𝑠, 𝐸𝑞𝑢𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠
and A = 𝐴𝑙𝑔𝑒𝑏𝑟𝑎, 𝐶𝑎𝑙𝑐𝑢𝑙𝑢𝑠 . Find A’

𝐴′ = 𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑐𝑠, 𝐸𝑞𝑢𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠
 Ms Nurazrin Jupri

Intersection
• The intersection of two events A and B, denoted
by symbol 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵.
• The event containing all elements that are
common to A and B
 Ms Nurazrin Jupri

Example 3
• Given 𝑆 = 1, 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10 , A = 2,4,6,8,10
and B = 2,3,5,7 . Find 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵

S
.1
.6 .3
.7
.2
.8 .10
.5
.4 𝐴∩𝐵 = 2
.9
 Ms Nurazrin Jupri

Mutually exclusive
• Two events A and B are mutually exclusive,
if 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ≠ ∅
• A and B have no elements that are common
• (a) I am female and I am male. – Impossible!
(b) I am 6 years old and I am 25 years old. –
Impossible!
 Ms Nurazrin Jupri

Example 4
• Given 𝑆 = 1, 2,3,4,5,6,7,8 , A = 2,4,6 and
B = 1,3,5 . Are A and B mutually exclusive?

.8 S

.6 .3 .1
.2 .7
.5
.4 𝐴∩𝐵 =∅
 Ms Nurazrin Jupri

Union
• The union of the two events A and B, denoted by
the symbol 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵
• Is the event containing all the elements belong to
A or B or both.
S

𝐴∪𝐵
 Ms Nurazrin Jupri

Example 5
• Given 𝑆 = 1, 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10 , A = 2,4,6,8,10
and B = 2,3,5,7 . Find 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 and n 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 .

S
.1
.6 .3 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 = 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,10
.7
.2
.8 .10
.4
.5 𝑛(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 8
.9
 Ms Nurazrin Jupri

Probability of an Event

𝑛(𝐴)
𝑃 𝐴 =
𝑛(𝑆)

Where:
• n(A) = the number of outcomes in event set A
• n(S) = sample space (All possible outcome)
 Ms Nurazrin Jupri

Properties of Probability

1. 0 ≤ 𝑃 𝐴 ≤ 1
2. 𝑃 𝑆 = 1
3. 𝑃 ∅ = 0
 Ms Nurazrin Jupri

Example 6
• A pair of coins is tossed. Find the probability of
getting
a) Two heads
b) One tail and one head
c) No head
Let H=head, T=tail
𝑆 = 𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝑇 and n 𝑆 = 4

1
a) Let A = 𝐻𝐻 and n 𝐴 = 1, thus 𝑃 𝐴 = 4
2 1
b) Let B = 𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝐻 and n 𝐵 = 2, thus 𝑃 𝐵 = =2
4
1
c) Let C = 𝑇𝑇 and n 𝐶 = 1, thus 𝑃 𝐶 = 4
 Ms Nurazrin Jupri

Example 7
• A mixture of candies contains 6 mints, 4 toffees and 3
chocolates. If a person makes a random selection of one
of these candies, find the probability of getting
a) A mint
b) A toffee or a chocolate

Let H=mint, T=toffee, C=chocolate; n 𝑆 =13

6
a) Since there are 6 mint candies n 𝑀 = 6, thus 𝑃 𝑀 = 13
b) Since there are 7 candies are toffee or chocolate n 𝑇 ∪ 𝐶 = 7, thus
7
𝑃 𝑇 ∪ 𝐶 = 13
Example 8 Ms Nurazrin Jupri

• A box contains 4 yellow balls and 6 black balls. Two balls

were taken from the box, with replacing the first ball
before taking second ball. Find
a) 𝑃(2 𝑦𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑜𝑤 𝑏𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑠)
b) 𝑃(𝑡𝑤𝑜 𝑏𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑠 𝑤𝑖𝑡ℎ 𝑑𝑖𝑓𝑓𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑐𝑜𝑙𝑜𝑟𝑠)
c) 𝑃(𝑎𝑡 𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑡 𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑦𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑜𝑤 𝑏𝑎𝑙𝑙)
Let Y=yellow, B=black; 𝑆 = 𝑌𝑌, 𝑌𝐵, 𝐵𝑌, 𝐵𝐵 and n 𝑆 = 4

a) P 2 yellow balls = P YY
4 4 4
= 10 × 10 = 25
a) P 2 balls 𝑤𝑖𝑡ℎ 𝑑𝑖𝑓𝑓𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑐𝑜𝑙𝑜𝑟𝑠 = P Y𝐵 ∪ 𝐵𝑌
4 6 6 4 12
= 10 × 10 + × = 25
10 10
a) P at least one yellow ball = P Y𝐵 ∪ 𝐵𝑌 ∪ 𝑌𝑌
4 6 6 4 4 4 16
= 10 × 10 + 10 × 10 + × = 25
10 10
 Ms Nurazrin Jupri

Complementary Events
• If A and A’ are complementary events, then
𝑃 𝐴 + 𝑃 𝐴′ = 1

Example 9
• The probability that Pahang will win the badminton
tournament is 5/7. Find the probability that Pahang will
lose?
5 5 2
Given 𝑃 𝑤𝑖𝑛𝑠 = 7 , thus 𝑃 𝑙𝑜𝑠𝑒𝑠 = 1 − 7 = 7
 Ms Nurazrin Jupri

Exercise 1
1. What is probability of getting a number 4 with the rolling of
a single die? Hence find the probability of not getting a
number 4.
Form 1 2 3 4 5
No. of students 40 80 70 60 50

2. The table shows the number of students in different forms

in a school. A student is selected from the school. Find the
probability that
▫ a Form 2 student is selected.
▫ a Form 5 student is selected.
 Ms Nurazrin Jupri

Exercise 1 (cont.)
3. The test marks for mathematics in a class are recorded as
shown below:

Test marks 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

No. of students 4 8 10 12 8 9 2

▫ If a student in the class is at random, what is the probability that

he or she is getting 70 marks?

▫ Find the probability of a student, selected at random, scoring 90

marks and above.
 Ms Nurazrin Jupri

Probability of Events
Additive Rule
• For two events A and B,
𝑃 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 + 𝑃 𝐵 − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)

• For three events A, B and C,

𝑃 𝐴∪𝐵∪𝐶
= 𝑃 𝐴 +𝑃 𝐵 +𝑃 𝐶 −𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵
− 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐶 − 𝑃 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶 + 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶)

Note:  means OR!  means AND!

Example 10
Ms Nurazrin Jupri

2
• The probability of Sarah passes Mathematics is , and
3
8
the probability that she passes English is . If the
9
3
probability of passing both subjects is , what is the
4
probability that Sarah will pass at least one of these
subjects?

Let M=pass in Mathematics, E=pass in English;

𝑃 𝑀∪𝐸 =𝑃 𝑀 +𝑃 𝐸 −𝑃 𝑀∩𝐸
2 8 3 29
= 3 + 9 − 4 = 36
 Ms Nurazrin Jupri

Additive Rule for Mutually Exclusive

Events
• For two events A and B,
𝑃 𝐴∪𝐵 =𝑃 𝐴 +𝑃 𝐵 −𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵
𝑃 𝐴∪𝐵 =𝑃 𝐴 +𝑃 𝐵 −0
𝑃 𝐴∪𝐵 =𝑃 𝐴 +𝑃 𝐵

Note:  means OR!  means AND!

Example 11
Ms Nurazrin Jupri

• Four friends, Adam, Badri, Haziq and Rizal apply for a

job in a petrol station but only one person will get the
job. Find probability that Badri or Haziq will get the job.

Let B=Badri, H=Haziq;

𝑃 𝐵∪𝐻 =𝑃 𝐵 +𝑃 𝐻 −𝑃 𝑀∩𝐸
1 1 1
=4+4−0=2
 Ms Nurazrin Jupri

Exercise 2
1. John and Owen applied for a scholarship and only one student will be
awarded the scholarship. If the probability for John to be awarded the
scholarship is 0.3 and that for Owen is 0.4, what is the probability that,
either John or Owen to win the scholarship?
2. In the senior year of high school graduating class of 100 students, 42
studied Mathematics, 68 studied Psychology, 54 studied History, 22
studied both Mathematics and History, 25 studied both Mathematics and
Psychology, 7 studied History but neither mathematics nor Psychology,
10 studied all three subjects and 8 did not take any of the three.
 Draw the Venn diagram
 If a student is selected at random, find the probability that a person not taking
Psychology is taking both History and Mathematics.
 Ms Nurazrin Jupri

Exercise 2 (cont,)
3. Find the probability of drawing a single card
with either a ‘7’ or a ‘heart’ from a pack of 52
playing cards.
 Ms Nurazrin Jupri

Conditional Probability

• The probability that an event will occur, given

that one or more other events have occurred.
• The conditional probability of B, given A,
𝑃(𝐵∩𝐴)
denoted by 𝑃 𝐵 𝐴 =
𝑃(𝐴)
 Ms Nurazrin Jupri

Example 12

• The probability that a regularly schedules flight departs

on time is 𝑃 𝐷 = 0.83, it arrives on time is 𝑃 𝐴 = 0.82
and it departs and arrives on time is 𝑃 𝐷 ∩ 𝐴 = 0.78.
Find the probability that a plane
a) Arrives on time given that it has departed on time
b) Departs on time given that it has arrived on time

𝑃(𝐴∩𝐷) 0.78
a) 𝑃 𝐴 𝐷 = 𝑃(𝐷)
= 0.83 = 0.94

𝑃(𝐷∩𝐴) 0.78
b) 𝑃 𝐷 𝐴 = 𝑃(𝐴)
= 0.82 = 0.95
 Ms Nurazrin Jupri

Probability of Events
Multiplicative Rule
• For dependent events A and B,
𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 .𝑃 𝐵 𝐴

• For independent events A and B, if and only if

a) 𝑃 𝐵 𝐴 = 𝑃 𝐵
b) 𝑃 𝐴 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴
c) 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 . 𝑃(𝐵)
 Ms Nurazrin Jupri

Example 13

• A box contain 7 red chips and 3 white ones. 2 chips

randomly selected from the box. Find the probability
that we get a red chip on the first draw and a white one
on the second draw if
a) The chips are selected without replacement
b) The chips are selected with replacement

Let R=red chips, W=white chips;

a) 𝑃 𝑅 ∩ 𝑊 = 𝑃 𝑅 . 𝑃 𝑊 𝑅
7 3 7
= 10 × 9 = 30

a) 𝑃 𝑅 ∩ 𝑊 = 𝑃 𝑅 . 𝑃 𝑊 𝑅
7 3 21
= 10 × 10 = 100
 Ms Nurazrin Jupri

Exercise 3
1. A jar contains black and white marbles. Two marbles are chosen
without replacement. The probability of selecting a black marble
and then a white marble is 0.34, and the probability of selecting a
black marble on the first draw is 0.47. What is the probability of
selecting a white marble on the second draw, given that the first
marble drawn was black?
2. Two cards are drawn one after another from a pack of 52 playing
cards. The first card is replaced before drawing the second card.
What is the probability of getting a ‘king’ in the second card?
 Ms Nurazrin Jupri

Exercise 3 (cont.)
3. There are 4 red pens and 5 blue pens in a box. Two pens are to
be withdrawn one after another successively. However, the first
pen drawn is replaced. What is the probability of drawing:
a) the first pen is red and the second pen is blue?
b) one red pen and one blue pen?
4. A bag contains 3 red balls and 4 blue balls. One ball is
withdrawn, the color noted and the ball is not replaced. A
second ball is then withdrawn. What is the probability that the
second ball is red?
 Ms Nurazrin Jupri

Solving probability using Contingency

Table
Example 14
The management of a computer shop recorded the sales of 250 units of computers in one
month. Of those 250 units sold, 180 units belonged to Pentium II model, of which 30 units
were sold with 17 inch monitors. 25 units of Pentium I model were sold with 17 inch monitors.
The rest of the units were sold with 15 inch monitors. Find the probability that a unit sold,
selected at random,
▫ a) has a 15 inch monitor

▫ b) is a Pentium I model with a 15 inch monitor

▫ c) either is a Pentium II model or has a 15 inch monitor

 Ms Nurazrin Jupri

15 inch monitor 17 inch monitor

Pentium I 45 25 70
Pentium II 150 30 180
195 55 250