INDUSTRIAL QUALITY

CONTROL
(TIE 414)

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REVIEW OF QUALITY
CONTROL RELATED
PROBABILITY

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 REVIEW HIGHLIGHTS

• PROBABILITY THEOREMS
• PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
• HYPOTHESIS TESTING

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 PROBABILITY THEOREMS

1. The Three Basic Probability theorems

i. 0≤ P(x) ≤ 1
ii. If probability that event A will occur = P(A)
Probability that A will not occur = 1- P(A)
iii. P(A) = P(A1) +P(A2)……..+P(An)

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 PROBABILITY THEOREMS
2. Additive Law of Probability (mutually
exclusive events AND events that are not
mutually exclusive)
3. Multiplicative Law for Independent Events
(Compound Event)
4. Law of conditional Probability

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Probability Distributions

• Definitions
– Sample A collection of measurements selected from
some larger source or population.
– Probability Distribution A mathematical model that
relates the value of the variable with the probability of
occurrence of that value in the population.
– Random Variable variable that can take on different
values in the population according to some “random”
mechanism.

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 Probability Distributions

• Two Types of Probability Distributions

– Continuous When a variable being measured is expressed
on a continuous scale, its probability distribution is called a
continuous distribution. The probability distribution of
piston-ring diameter is continuous.

– Discrete When the parameter being measured can only take

on certain values, such as the integers 0, 1, 2, …, the
probability distribution is called a discrete distribution. The
distribution of the number of nonconformities would be a
discrete distribution.

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Important Discrete Distributions

i. The Hypergeometric
Distribution

ii. The Binomial Distribution

iii. The Poisson Distribution

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HYPERGEOMETRIC DISTRIBUTION
• The probability of ‘r’ nonconforming
items in a sample of size ‘n’ when a
lot of size ‘N’ contains ‘D’ numbers
of non conforming items.

P(r|N,D,n) = (DCr *
N-DC
n-r )/ NC
n

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The Binomial Distribution
Used when the discrete variable of interest is the
number of successes in a sample of ‘n’
observation.
A quality characteristic follows a binomial
distribution if:
1. All trials are independent.
2. Each outcome is either a “success” or “failure”.
3. The probability of success on any trial is given as
p. The probability of a failure is 1- p.
4. The probability of a success is constant.
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The Binomial Distribution

The binomial distribution with parameters

n  0 and 0 < p < 1, is
 n x
p( x)    p (1 p)n x
 x

The mean and variance of the binomial

distribution are
  np  2  np(1  p)

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 The Poisson Distribution
• Used to count the number of times a
particular event occurs in a given area of
opportunity.
• Example; number of customers arriving
during the lunch hour at a bank located in the
central business district of Ibadan.

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The Poisson Distribution

The Poisson distribution is

e  x
p( x )  , x  0,1,
x!

Where the parameter  > 0. x=number of

events. e= 2.71828
The mean(expected number of events) and
variance of the Poisson distribution are
  
2

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The Poisson Distribution

• The Poisson distribution is useful in quality

engineering
– Typical model of the number of defects or
nonconformities that occur in a unit of
product.
– Any random phenomenon that occurs on a
“per unit” basis is often well approximated by
the Poisson distribution.

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Important Continuous Distributions

i. The Normal Distribution

ii.The Exponential Distribution
iii. The Gamma Distribution
iv. The Weibull Distribution

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The Normal Distribution
The normal distribution
is an important
continuous distribution.
• Symmetric, bell-
shaped
• Mean,  -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
x

• Standard deviation, 

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 The Normal Distribution

For a population that is

normally distributed:
• approx. 68% of the data will lie
within 1 standard deviation of
the mean;
• approx. 95% of the data will lie
within 2 standard deviations
of the mean, and -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4

• approx. 99.7% of the data will x

lie within 3 standard

deviations of the mean.

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Areas under the normal distribution

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Central Limit Theorem

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The Normal Distribution

• Standard normal distribution

– Many situations will involve data that is normally
distributed. We will often want to find probabilities of
events occuring or percentages of nonconformities,
etc.. A standardized normal random variable is:

x 
Z


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The Normal Distribution

• Standard normal distribution

– Z is normally distributed with mean 0 and
standard deviation, 1.
– Use the standard normal distribution to find
probabilities when the original population or
sample of interest is normally distributed.
– Tables, calculators are useful.

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 The Normal Distribution
• Suppose the mean time to deliver a product
to any customer in Edo state is 4hrs and a
standard deviation of 2hrs.
What is the probability that
(i) The product will get to Edo in less than 9hrs?
(ii) It will be delivered between 7 and 9hrs?
(iii) It will be under 7hrs and over 9hrs?

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The Normal Distribution

Example
The tensile strength of paper is modeled by a normal
distribution with a mean of 35 lbs/in2 and a standard
deviation of 2 lbs/in2.
a) What is the probability that the tensile strength of a
sample is less than 40 lbs/in2?
b) If the specifications require the tensile strength to
exceed 30 lbs/in2, what proportion of the samples is
scrapped?

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Lognormal Distribution

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Lognormal Density function

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Exponential Distribution

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Exponential Distrbution function and Cummulative
Distribution function

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Weibull Distribution

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Statistical Inference for a Single Sample

• A statistical hypothesis is a statement

about the values of the parameters of a
probability distribution.
H0 :   0
H1 :    0

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 Statistical Inference for a
Single Sample
• Steps in Hypothesis Testing
– Identify the parameter of interest
– State the null hypothesis, H0 and alternative
hypotheses, H1.
– Choose a significance level
– State the appropriate test statistic
– State the rejection region
– Compare the value of test statistic to the rejection
region. Can the null hypothesis be rejected?

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 Statistical Inference for a
Single Sample
• Example: An automobile manufacturer claims a
particular automobile can average 35 mpg
(highway).
– Suppose we are interested in testing this claim. We
will sample 25 of these particular autos and under
identical conditions calculate the average mpg for
this sample.
– Before actually collecting the data, we decide that if
we get a sample average less than 33 mpg or more
than 37 mpg, we will reject the makers claim.
(Critical Values)

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 Statistical Inference for a
Single Sample
• Example (continued)
– H0:   35 Rejection Regions

H1:   35 Do not reject

• From the sample of 25

cars, the average mpg
was found to be 31.5. Reject
Reject

What is your
conclusion? 33 35
x
37

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 Statistical Inference for a
Single Sample
Choice of Critical Values
• Wouldn’t be easier to set the size of the
rejection region, rather than setting the critical
values for every problem?
• The size of the rejection region is directly
related to the risks involved in using only
sample evidence to make decision about the
population parameter.

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 Risk in decision making using
hypothesis methodology
• When using a sample statistics to make
decision about population parameter, there is
a risk of making an incorrect conclusion.
• ……………Possible Errors
• Type I Error
• Type II Error

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 …….Risk in decision making
ACTUAL
SITUATION
Statistical Ho True Ho False
Decision
Do not reject Ho Correct decision Type II Error
Confidence P(Type II Error
(1-α) )= β
Reject Ho Type I Error Correct decision
P(Type I Power= (1-β)
Error)=α
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 Statistical Inference for a
Single Sample
Significance Level
• The level of significance,  determines the size
of the rejection region.
• The level of significance is a probability. It is also
known as the probability of a “Type I error”
(want this to be small)
• Type I error - rejecting the null hypothesis when
it is true.
• How small? Usually want   0.10

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 Statistical Inference for a
Single Sample
Types of Error
• Type I error - rejecting the null hypothesis when
it is true.
• Pr(Type I error) = . Sometimes called the
producer’s risk.
• Type II error - not rejecting the null hypothesis
when it is false.
• Pr(Type II error) = . Sometimes called the
consumer’s risk.

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 Statistical Inference for a
Single Sample
Power of a Test
• The Power of a test of hypothesis is given
by 1 - 
• That is, 1 -  is the probability of correctly
rejecting the null hypothesis, or the
probability of rejecting the null
hypothesis when the alternative is true.

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 Inference on the Mean of a
Population, Variance Known
Hypothesis Testing
• Hypotheses: H0:   Ho 1:   o
• Test Statistic: x  0
Z0 
/ n
• Significance Level, 
• Rejection Region: Z o   Z  / 2 or Z 0  Z/2

• If Z0 falls into either of the two regions above,

reject H0

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 Inference on the Mean of a
Population, Variance Known
Example 3-1
• Hypotheses: H0:   175
H:   175
1

182  175
• Test Statistic: Z0   3.50
10 / 25
• Significance Level,  = 0.05
• Rejection Region: Z0  Z  1.645

• Since 3.50 > 1.645, reject H0 and conclude that

the lot mean pressure strength exceeds 175 psi.
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 Inference on the Mean of a
Population, Variance Known
Confidence Intervals
• A general 100(1- )% two-sided confidence
interval on the true population mean,  is

P[L    U]  (1  )
• 100(1- )% One-sided confidence intervals are:
P[  U]  (1  ) P[L  ]  (1  )
Upper Lower

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 Inference on the Mean of a
Population, Variance Known
Confidence Interval on the Mean with
Variance Known
• Two-Sided:
 
P[ x  Z     x  Z ]  (1  )
2 n 2 n

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 Inference on the Mean of a
Population, Variance Known
Example 3-2
• Reconsider Example 3-1. Suppose a 95% two-sided
confidence interval is specified. Using Equation (3-28) we
compute
 
x  z / 2    x  z / 2
n n
10 10
182  1.96    182  1.96
25 25
178.08    185.92
• Our estimate of the mean bursting strength is 182 psi  3.92
psi with 95% confidence

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 P Value

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Calculating P-Value

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t- Test Statistics and Confidence
Interval

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Statistical Inference for two samples

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Statistical Inference for two samples

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