Indonesia strategy Monthly recap and flow │3 Feb 23

Taming of inflation
130 12.0%

120
10.0%
110

100 8.0%

90
6.0%
80

70 4.0%

60
2.0% Erwan Teguh
erwan.teguh@bnisekuritas.co.id
50
+62 21 2554 3946 Ext. 3997

40 0.0% Yulinda Hartanto, CFA

Yulinda.hartanto@bnisekuritas.co.id
+62 21 2554 3946 Ext. 3981

US inflation (RHS) Germany inflation (RHS) Indonesia inflation (RHS) FFR (RHS) Ilham Firdaus
DXY Euro Yen Rp ilham.firdaus@bnisekuritas.co.id
+62 21 2554 3946 Ext. 2034
VIX UST 10Y yield (RHS) Indo 10Y yield (RHS)
Indonesia Strategy Monthly recap and flow │3 Feb 23

Brighter Days Ahead

Approaching the end of rate-hike cycle: Consensus widely expected that the Fed would slow its pace of rate hikes on 1 Feb. As the Fig 2: Jan-23 JCI vs. global peer performances
Fed geared down its rate hike pace to 25bps, the heavy-tech index Nasdaq soared after the rate decision, whilst the two-year US yield
and DXY fell. The DXY tumbled to the 101 level, returning to its Apr-22 level, wiping out almost all the appreciation since the Fed
raised rate aggressively in 2022. The Fed's press conference was interpreted by the market as a more dovish approach from the Fed HK
Chair Powell who stated that there had been some encouraging signs that price pressures were easing. Despite the aggressive rate
hikes in 2022, a strong job market and resilient corporate earnings suggest a soft landing that may avoid a recession in the US is on a Germany
strong footing. After the Fed, the ECB and BoE increased their policy rates by 50bps each, in line with expectations.
Korea
Better than expected global macro backdrop: The IMF recently (30 Jan 2023) upgraded its economic growth projections for 2023
and 2024, after a series of downgrades in 2022. The organization still expects the global economy to slow down this year due to rate Canada
hikes, but output will be more resilient than previously anticipated and a global recession would probably be avoided. China's return
from its zero Covid policy, the better-than-expected outcome of energy crisis in Europe, and the weakening DXY are providing relief to Australia
emerging markets, as global conditions improve and inflation pressures begin to abate, according to the IMF.
Three cheers for Indonesia: 1) strengthening Rupiah; 2) continuous foreign inflows into the bond market, thus lowering 10Y bond US
yield further; 3) more benign than expected inflation.
• A combination of a weakening USD and inflows to the domestic bond market has helped the recent performance of the Rupiah. China
The Rupiah strengthened to Rp14,800ish today, breaching the key Rp15,000 level and is now the strongest since Sep 2022. As

Jan-23 Performance
shown in Fig. 2, Rupiah was one of the best performing currencies in Jan 2023; second only to Thailand within Asia. On the Japan
ground, the central bank is also strengthening the implementation of export proceeds (DHE) regulations, particularly from
commodities, which may help to stabilise the value of the Rupiah by improving FX liquidity conditions and BI's foreign reserves. UK
Indonesia's forex reserves stood at USD137bn as of Dec 2022, up from USD134bn in the previous month.
• Foreign investors have returned to Indonesia's bonds as well, increasing their ownership by 70bps mom to 15.1% as of Jan 2023 Singapore
after USD3.2bn inflows, the highest monthly inflows in the past two decades or since data was available in Jan 2003. In total,
foreign inflows into government bonds reached USD6.3bn in the past three months (on pace to exceed previous annual high of Philippines
US$12.8bn in 2017) versus total outflows of USD8.9bn in FY2022. As a result, the 10Y bond yield declined by 20bps mom to 6.7%
in Jan 2023, much lower than the recent peak of 7.6% in Oct 2022 and the lowest since Mar 2022.
Brazil
• Indonesia also recorded a moderate inflation at 0.3% mom/5.3% yoy in Jan 2023, below consensus at 0.5% mom/5.4% yoy amid
lower food and transportation prices. After the policy rate increase in Jan 2023, BI Governor Perry Warjiyo signaled that this round
Saudi Arabia
of tightening may be coming to an end. Given the diminishing challenges, both in general inflation but notably core inflation, as well
as the improving Rupiah, our economist team believe Bank Indonesia would hold rate in its Feb 2023 meeting at 5.75%.
Thailand

From loser to winner: The tech sector outperformed the most in Jan 2023, largely led by GoTo (its share price was up 23% mom in
Jan-23); along with other laggards in 2022's sectors, such as basic materials and consumer staples. On the other hand, coal mining Indonesia
and big banks, two outperformers in 2022, had a difficult month. Domestic and foreign institutions overall made similar sector allocation
calls, both increasing their weighting the most in basic materials and infrastructure. They also both increased their weighting in Malaysia
consumer non-cyclicals, industrials, and tech, while trimming positions the most in energy and financials.
India
Overall, our sanguine growth outlook for 2023F is encouraged further by recent 2022 earnings of major banks which were generally
ahead of expectations. Key signposts for 2023 include the timing of a potential rate pause, the pace of economic growth (whether -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%
there will be a hard or soft landing in DM markets), China’s reopening impact and commitments to address climate change. Post the Currency Index
bond rally, equity now looks attractive with the JCI 1Y forward P/E of 14.9x, or 1.4/0.7 stdev below its 5Y/LT mean.
SOURCES: BNIS RESEARCH, BLOOMBERG 2
Strategy │Monthly recap and flow │3 Feb 23

The end of tightening cycle is nigh

Fig 3: Subsiding pressure on global currencies and bond yields Fig 5: Equity generally soared… Fig 6: …while USD depreciated
50

45
400 130
40 VIX (shown in actual value) Argentina 25.5% Russia 5.4%
YTD 10Y government bond yield, ID 5Y CDS, BI rate changes (in bps)

36.5
34.8 34.0 ID 5Y CDS - YTD changes (LHS)
300
35
32.0 32.6
120 Mexico 12.6% Brazil 4.0%
30 28.6
200

YTD currency changes (factored to 100)

25
24.0 Italy 12.2% Indonesia 3.7%
21.9 110
100 19.7 20.0 20.0
18.6 19.4
20
European Union 9.7% Australia 3.6%
15
0 100
South Africa 9.7% Mexico 3.4%
10
-100
5 90 South Korea 2.1%
France 9.4%
-200
0
Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 China
Germany 8.7% 2.1%
80
-300

BI rate YTD changes (LHS) South Korea 8.4% United Kingdom 2.0%
-400 70
Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Dec-22 Jan-23
Canada 7.1% Canada 1.8%
ID bond yield US bond yield EU bond yield UK bond yield CH bond yield JP bond yield
Rp/US$ (RHS) DXY (RHS) €/US$ (RHS) £/US$ (RHS) CNY/US$ (RHS) ¥/US$ (RHS)
Australia 6.2% European Union 1.5%

United States 6.2% Italy 1.5%

Fig 4: Significant foreign bond buying makes equity valuation appealing Germany 1.5%
China 5.4%
4.0 Bonds valuation is more 7.00
attractive than equity Japan 4.7%
France 1.5%
3.0 6.50
India 1.2%
United Kingdom 4.3%
2.0 6.00
Japan 0.8%
1.0 5.50 Brazil 3.4%

0.0 5.00 Saudi Arabia 0.2%

Russia 3.3%

-1.0 4.50 Turkey -0.6%

Saudi Arabia 3.0%
-2.0 4.00 United States -1.4%
Indonesia -0.2%
-3.0 3.50
South Africa -2.2%
India -2.4%
-4.0 3.00
Argentina -5.8%
Turkey
-9.7%

-5%

0%

5%
-10%

10%
-15.0% 0.0% 15.0% 30.0%
10Y bonds minus earnings yield 2023F Mean
+1 s.d. -1 s.d. BI Rate (RHS) Index changes (mom, Jan-23) Currency change vs. US$ (Jan-23)
2023F
SOURCES: BNIS RESEARCH, BLOOMBERG 3
Strategy │Monthly recap and flow │3 Feb 23

Moderation of inflation, normalization of monetary policy

Fig 7: GDP growth slowing among Fig 8: …while inflation moderating Fig 9: Policy rates still being raised Fig 10: US$ continued to soften
G20 countries… but at slower pace YTD
China* 1.8
Turkey
-5.00 Russia 5.4%
Argentina* 6.9
Saudi Arabia* 3.1
Russia -1.00 Brazil 4.0%
India 6.3
Japan* 4.0
China -0.14 Indonesia 3.7%
Indonesia 5.7
South Korea 5.2
Japan 0.00 Australia 3.6%
Mexico 4.3
Indonesia 5.3
Turkey South Korea 2.25 Mexico 3.4%
3.9

India* 5.7 2.25

China 3.9 Indonesia South Korea 2.1%

Brazil* 5.8 India 2.25

Canada 3.9 China 2.1%

Australia*
France 6.0 European Union 2.50 United Kingdom 2.0%
3.6

Brazil 3.6 Canada* 6.3 Italy 2.50 Canada 1.8%

South Korea 3.1 United States* 6.5 Germany 2.50 European Union 1.5%

Italy 2.6 South Africa* 7.2 France 2.50 Italy 1.5%

Saudi Arabia 2.6 Australia* 7.8 Australia 3.00 Germany 1.5%

United States 1.9 United Kingdom 3.25 France

Mexico* 7.8 1.5%

Japan 1.8 South Africa 3.50

Germany* 8.6 India 1.2%

Germany 1.2 Saudi Arabia 4.00 Japan 0.8%

European Union* 10.4
France 1.0
Canada 4.25 Saudi Arabia 0.2%
Italy* 11.3
European Union 0.2
United States 4.50 Turkey -0.6%
Russia* 11.9
United Kingdom -0.2
Brazil 4.50 United States -1.4%
United Kingdom* 13.4
South Africa* -0.7
Mexico 5.13 South Africa -2.2%
Turkey* 64.3
Russia -4.0
Argentina 37.5 Argentina -5.8%
-5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 Argentina* 94.8
-6.0 -1.0 4.0 9.0 14.0 -25% 0% 25%
3Q22 GDP growth (% yoy) - *) 2Q22 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0
Policy rate changes (%pts, 2022 to date) Currency change vs. US$ (YTD)
CPI Jan 23 (% yoy) - *) Dec 22

SOURCES: BNIS RESEARCH, BLOOMBERG 4

Strategy │Monthly recap and flow │3 Feb 23

A brighter outlook

Fig 11: IMF upgraded 2023F global economic growth Fig 13: Jan-23 inflation was better than consensus Fig 15: Consensus calls for a terminal FFR of 4.9%
forecast to 2.9% from 2.7% previously estimates
20.0% 6.0 115
4.0%

3.8% 15.0%
5.0
110
3.6%
10.0%
3.4% 4.0
105
3.2% 5.0%
3.0
3.0%
0.0% 100
2.8% 2.0
2.6% -5.0% Fuel price 95
hike 1.0
2.4%
-10.0%
2.2%
0.0 90
2.0%

CPI (yoy) Core (yoy) Administered (yoy)

Fed terminal rate - BBG consensus (%) UST 10Y (%) DXY (RHS)
2023F Global GDP growth est. - IMF 2023F Global GDP growth est. - BBG cons Volatile (yoy) Energy (yoy) Food (yoy)

Fig 12: Consensus estimates for Indonesia 2023F Fig 14: BI policy rate has been catching up with FFR Fig 16: Rp and bond yield strengthened in Jan-23
economic growth remained stable at 4.9% increases
18.0
16,000 7.8
5.30 16.0
15,800 7.6
5.20 14.0 15,600 7.4
5.10 12.0 15,400
7.2
10.0 15,200
5.00 7.0
15,000
4.90 8.0 6.8
14,800
4.80
6.0 6.6
14,600

4.70
4.0 14,400 6.4

2.0 14,200 6.2

4.60
0.0 14,000 6.0
4.50

Rp/US$ Indo 10Y yield (%, RHS)

2023F ID GDP growth estimate - BBG cons (% yoy)
FFR - upper range (%) BI Benchmark Rate (%)

SOURCES: BNIS RESEARCH, BLOOMBERG 5

Strategy │Monthly recap and flow │3 Feb 23

Foreign net sold equity, net bought bond, for the third consecutive month
• Foreign investors have returned to Indonesian Fig 17: The reversing foreign fund flows in bonds and Fig 18: How long shall the reversal trend persist?
bonds, where ownership increased by 70 basis equity
points mom to 15.1% as of Jan 2023, following
USD 3.2bn inflows, the highest monthly inflows in 80.0 150.0

the past two decades or since data was available in 60.0 100.0
Jan 2003. In total, foreign inflows into government 40.0 50.0
bonds have reached USD 6.3bn over the past three 20.0 0.0
months, compared to total outflows of USD 8.9bn
0.0 -50.0
throughout the full year 2022. As a result, the 10-
-20.0 -100.0
year bond yield declined by 20 basis points mom to
-40.0 -150.0
6.7% in Jan 2023, much lower than its recent peak
of 7.6% in Oct 2022, and the lowest since Mar -60.0 -200.0

2022. -80.0 -250.0

• On the other hand, foreign investors net sold equity

200D MA foreign bonds flow (US$ mn) 200D MA foreign equity flow (US$ mn) 50D MA foreign bonds flow (US$ mn) 50D MA foreign equity flow (US$ mn)
by USD 0.2bn in Jan 2023, easing from a month
prior with net outflows of USD 1.26bn. The Jakarta
Composite Index (JCI) corrected slightly by 0.2%
mom to 6,839 in Jan 2023. The index corrected the Fig 19: JCI outperformed bond in 2022, though valuations Fig 20: IDR strengthened by c.3.7% mom in Jan 23 while
most on 10th Jan 2023, to 6,622 (-3.2% MTD), de-rated in line with rising bond yield bond yield softened by 20bps mom at 6.7%
largely driven by price corrections in big caps. 30 4.0 18,000 11.0
Since then, big cap prices have rebounded. 28
5.0 10.0
26 16,000
Following beating fourth quarter 2022 earnings by
24 6.0 9.0
BNI and BCA, foreign investors recorded net
22 14,000 8.0
inflows from 26-30 Jan (USD92mn in total) before 7.0
20
turning into net sellers again on 31-Jan. 18 8.0 12,000 7.0

16 9.0 6.0
• Overall, foreign institution ownership in equity 14 10,000
10.0 5.0
remained flat mom at 34.2%, as seen in figure 28. 12
Outflows from the equity market have been 10 11.0 8,000 4.0

attributed to rotation into the Chinese market and

bonds, although we highlighted previously that the
Rp/US$ ID 10Y bond yield (%, RHS)
current valuation gaps in Indonesia's equity market JCI 1Y Fwd P/E ID 10Y bond yield (%, RHS - in reverse)

suggest limited downside (see our previous note:

"Mind the Gap").

SOURCES: BNIS RESEARCH, BLOOMBERG, IDX 6

Strategy │Indonesia

Recent foreign equity outflow is likely more due to rotation, not fundamentals
Fig 21: China valuations are relatively more attractive Fig 22: Valuation gap does drive rotation

1.8 8,000
1.5

1.4
1.6 6,000

1.3

1.2 1.4 4,000

1.1
1.2 2,000
1.0

0.9 1.0 0

0.8
0.8 -2,000
0.7

0.6
0.6 -4,000
0.5
Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21

Jul-22
Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21

Jan-22

Jan-23
Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Oct-21

Apr-22

Oct-22
0.4 -6,000

MSCI EM ex. China PE over MSCI China PE Mean

12M JCI cum. foreign flow (US$ mn, RHS) MSCI Indo PE over MSCI China PE Mean MSCI Indo PE over MSCI EM ex. China PE Mean
MSCI EM ex. China PE over MSCI Indo PE Mean

Fig 23: MSCI EM ex. China vs. China and Indonesia returns were tightly Fig 24: JCI & LQ45 also have reasonably tight correlation with MSCI
correlated Indonesia
60% 60%

50% 50%

40% 40%
Index annual return

30%

Index annual return

30%

20% 20%

10%
10%

0%
0%

-10%
-10%
-20%
-20%
-30%
-30%

MSCI EM ex. China (US$) MSCI China (US$) MSCI Indonesia (US$)
MSCI Indonesia (US$) JCI (US$) LQ45 (US$)

SOURCES: BNIS RESEARCH, BLOOMBERG, IDX 7

 Strategy │Monthly recap and flow │3 Feb 23

Investors’ positions in bonds and equity by Jan-23

Fig 25: Foreign has sold c.US$16bn of GOI bonds since the pandemic started… Fig 27: Foreign continued to sell equity in Jan-23…
14,000 2,000
4,000
80,000 12,000 1,500
2,000
70,000
10,000 1,000
60,000 0
8,000 500
50,000 -2,000
6,000 0
40,000
-4,000
4,000 -500
30,000
-6,000
20,000 2,000 -1,000

10,000 -8,000
0 -1,500

0 -10,000 -2,000 -2,000

Net foreign flow c. since 2008 (US$ mn) Net foreign flow - monthly (US$ mn, RHS)
Net foreign flow c. since 2008 (US$ mn) Net foreign flow - monthly (US$ mn, RHS)

Fig 28: … though foreign ownership is relatively lower than historical average. Domestic
Fig 26: …now owns less than before QE started during 2008 GFC institutional investors also trimmed equity exposure, while retail investors picked up the
slack
100% 100%
90% 90%

34.2%

34.2%
15% 17% 14%

37.4%
39.3%
18% 17% 17%

42.8%
80% 14%

44.6%
80%

46.8%

47.8%
48.7%
44.3%
16% 16%

50.7%
4% 4%
3% 5% 5% 5% 3%
70% 0% 4% 5%
2% 1% 10% 7% 12% 3% 3% 70%
4% 8% 11% 10%
60% 17%
19% 17% 60%
31%
50% 37% 35% 24% 23%
34% 37% 23% 20% 21%
50%

31.5%
26.0%

38.0%
25.1%
36%

21.5%

47.5%
48.1%
22.0%
18.6%

22.3%
40% 44%

18.1%
8% 7% 7% 34% 40%
7% 7%
30% 32% 34%
30%
5%
20% 38%
33% 33% 33% 5%

31.5%
20%

30.7%
30.7%
32%

30.0%
31% 31%

29.8%
31% 31%

29.7%
31%

28.9%

28.8%
4% 4%

23.7%
10% 19% 21%

17.4%
17.1%
14% 11% 11% 10%
0%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Jan-23 0%
Foreign Foreign Central Banks Bank Bank Indonesia Mutual Fund Insurance & Pension Funds Retail Others
Notes: Prior to 2015, mutual fund, insurance, pension fund, and retail ownerships were included in others
Prior to 2015, foreign central banks ownership was included in foreign
Domestic - institution Domestic - retail Foreign - institution Foreign - retail
Notes: Institution includes mutual fund, insurance, and pension fund

SOURCES: BNIS RESEARCH, BLOOMBERG, BANK INDONESIA, KSEI, IDX 8

Strategy │Monthly recap and flow │3 Feb 23

LQ45 and IDX30 recorded in-line performance with JCI

• The performance of the LQ45 and IDX30 was in Fig 29: Big caps performance was in line with JCI in Jan-23 Fig 30: Jan-23 daily trading value was lower than 2022 mean
line with the overall performance of the JCI.
Although eight of the top ten key leaders (as 2%
30.0
shown in figure 31) are members of the LQ45, 1% 25.0
this is offset by the fact that six of the top ten key 0%
laggards are also members of the LQ45. 20.0
-1%
15.0
• Big banks, which outperformed the JCI in 2022, -2%

-3%
had a difficult month in Jan 2023, despite the fact 10.0
-4%
that they recorded robust profits for the 4Q22 and 5.0
-5%
FY22, which comprised 103% to 105% of
-6% 0.0
consensus. The top three foreign outflows were

30-Dec-22

1-Jan-23

3-Jan-23

5-Jan-23

7-Jan-23

9-Jan-23

11-Jan-23

13-Jan-23

15-Jan-23

17-Jan-23

19-Jan-23

21-Jan-23

23-Jan-23

25-Jan-23

27-Jan-23

29-Jan-23

31-Jan-23
from Bank Mandiri, BCA, and BRI, in that order.
These three names combined accounted for
Daily turnover - JCI (Rp tr) Average Daily Turnover
approximately 160% of total foreign outflows in JCI LQ45 IDX30
Jan 2023. BNI was the only big bank to receive
significant inflows, with USD46mn, and was the
second highest name for inflows in Jan 2023.
Fig 31: Top 10 key leaders in Jan-23 Fig 32: Top 10 key laggards in Jan-23
• In Jan 2023, foreign investors recorded inflows
into energy stocks, specifically metal mining 40% 400%
companies with gold exposure (MDKA and 35% 350%
ANTM). As a result, the share prices of MDKA 0% 0%
30% 300%
and ANTM increased by 15% mom and 16% -50%
25% 250% -5%
mom respectively. Foreign investors also -100%
recorded small inflows into healthcare names 20% 200% -150%
-10%
(MIKA, KLBF, CARE) and coal mining 15% 150% -200%
companies (ADRO, BUMI, HRUM). However, 10% 100% -15% -250%
despite the inflow, ADRO's share price dropped
5% 50% -300%
by 18% mom in Jan 2023. -20%
0% 0% -350%
• Within LQ45, MEDC recorded the biggest -25% -400%
increase in share price, with a 37% mom jump, Share px ∆ - mom % % index move (RHS)
followed by GoTo at 23% mom. Share px ∆ - mom % % index move (RHS)

SOURCES: BNIS RESEARCH, BLOOMBERG 9

 Strategy │Monthly recap and flow │3 Feb 23

Foreign bought basic materials while sold financials in Jan-23

Fig 33: Monthly foreign net flows by sectors in Jan-23 Fig 34: Top 15 stocks – net foreign buy (Jan-23) Fig 36: Daily vs. cumulative foreign flow in Jan-23
(Rp bn)
2,000
1,200.0 40%
1,000
35%
Basic Materials 1,000.0
1,664 0
30%
800.0
25% -1,000
Energy 447 600.0 20% -2,000
15%
400.0 -3,000
Healthcare 234 10%
200.0 -4,000
5%
-5,000
Consumer Non-Cyclicals 52 0.0 0%

Technology 50 Cumulative Dec-22 (Rp bn) Daily net flow (Rp bn)
Stock net flow in Jan-23 (Rp bn) % to JCI net flow (RHS)

Properties & Real Estate -27

Fig 37: In Jan-23, foreign added position on bonds and equity

Fig 35: Top 15 stocks – net foreign sell (Jan-23)
Transportation & Logistic -76 by 73bps mom and 23bps mom, respectively

60%
Industrials -227
50%
0.0 0%
-200.0 40%
Consumer Cyclicals -256 -10%
-400.0
-600.0 -20% 30%

Infrastructures -624 -800.0 -30%

20%
-1,000.0
-1,200.0 -40%
10%
JCI -3,123 -1,400.0 -50%
-1,600.0 0%
-60%
-1,800.0
Financials -4,395
-2,000.0 -70%

Stock net flow in Jan-23 (Rp bn) % to JCI net flow (RHS) Foreign ownership on equity Foreign ownership on bonds

Notes: Foreign ownership on equity refers to ownership by institutional and retail investors

SOURCES: BNIS RESEARCH, BLOOMBERG, IDX 10

Strategy │Monthly recap and flow │3 Feb 23

Tech was best performer

• The negative correlation between the tech Fig 38: Jan-23 performance by sector vs. respective consensus earnings upgrade/downgrade
sector and energy sector seems to be holding
true. In Jan 2023, the tech sector was the 8.0% 4.0%
best performer while the energy sector was 6.0% 3.0%
the worst performer across all sectors. The 4.0% 2.0%
laggard sectors from 2022 showed reversals 2.0% 1.0%
in Jan 2023 and outperformed the overall JCI,
0.0% 0.0%
including tech, basic materials, and consumer
-2.0% -1.0%
staples.
-4.0% -2.0%
• Both domestic and foreign institutions made -6.0% -3.0%

Cons. Non-Cyc.
Properties & RE
Energy

Industrials

JCI

Financials

Technology
Infrastructure

Healthcare
Cons. Cyclical

Basic Material
similar sector allocation decisions, increasing
their weightings in basic materials and
infrastructures, and also in consumer non-
cyclicals, industrials, and tech, while reducing
weightings in energy and financials (likely due Note: JCI earnings reflects the aggregate earnings Jan 23 performance Jan-23 2023F earnings upgrade (downgrade) - RHS
to profit taking moves as these two were the
top performers in 2022). Domestic institutions Fig 39: 1Y fwd PE valuation – by sectors Fig 40: 1Y fwd PBV valuation – by sectors
are now overweight in basic materials (having
been neutral a month prior). 60.0
8.0

7.0
50.0
• Domestic retail added basic material and 6.0
40.0
financial the most, while trimming energy the
30.0 5.0
most.
20.0 4.0

• In terms of valuations, based on 1Y fwd PE; 10.0 3.0

basic material, consumer both staples and 0.0

2.0

cyclical, infrastructure, coal mining, property -10.0

1.0
and utilities are still the cheapest sectors. -20.0

JCI
Infrastructures

Property

Utility
Basic Materials

Healthcare
Consumer Cyclicals

Consumer Non-Cyclicals

Financials

Mineral Mining

Coal Mining

Technology
0.0
Meanwhile, JCI’s valuation also relatively

JCI
Property

Utility
Basic Materials

Consumer Non-Cyclicals

Healthcare

Infrastructures
Consumer Cyclicals

Financials

Mineral Mining

Coal Mining

Technology
undemanding and is trading at 1.4 stdev
below 5-year average.
1Y fwd P/E LT Mean +1 s.d. -1 s.d.
1Y fwd P/BV LT Mean +1 s.d. -1 s.d.

SOURCES: BNIS RESEARCH, BLOOMBERG 11

 Strategy │Monthly recap and flow │3 Feb 23

Top buys and sells by foreign investors in Jan-23: net sold financial while
net bought basic materials
1Y fwd Earnings yield Net inflow Inflow to 1Y fwd Earnings yield Net outflow Outflow to
Avg. daily Avg. daily
avg. daily Share avg. daily Share px
P/BV vs. 1Y % to JCI turnover BETA P/BV ROE vs. 1Y % to JCI turnover BETA
ROE (%) P/E (x) 1Y fwd 2013 5Y avg. Rp bn turnover px chg P/E (x) 1Y fwd 2013 5Y avg. Rp bn turnover chg
(x) Fwd JCI inflow (Rp bn) (x) (%) Fwd JCI outflow (Rp bn)
(x) (x)

Basic Materials 3.0 11.0 26.4 6.3% -0.1% 4.7% 5.1% 1,976.2 41.1% 709.2 2.2 1.2 9.2% Financials 3.1 16.7 43.0 7.0% 0.7% 5.8% 5.5% -5,110.0 64.5% 2,083.1 -3.0 1.2 -6.0%
MDKA 6.8 11.5 61.5 1.6% -4.7% 1.7% 2.4% 1,052.0 21.9% 189.8 5.5 1.7 14.6% BMRI 1.8 18.9 9.9 10.1% 3.8% 9.5% 8.9% -1,895.4 23.9% 501.2 -3.8 1.3 0.3%
ANTM 2.2 15.0 14.3 7.0% 0.7% 5.3% 4.5% 592.9 12.3% 218.0 2.7 1.4 16.4% BBCA 4.2 19.0 22.9 4.4% -2.0% 4.0% 4.2% -1,753.7 22.1% 762.9 -2.3 0.9 -0.9%
INKP n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 8.6% 125.1 2.6% 49.4 2.5 1.3 -4.6% BBRI 2.1 17.2 12.4 8.1% 1.7% 7.0% 7.4% -1,309.1 16.5% 740.5 -1.8 1.2 -7.3%
BRPT n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 2.5% 2.7% 83.7 1.7% 60.5 1.4 0.8 9.3% BTPS 1.9 24.7 8.5 11.8% 5.5% 8.2% 6.8% -102.2 1.3% 16.3 -6.3 1.1 -8.2%
ESSA 2.2 15.0 8.5 11.7% 5.4% 9.5% 8.3% 47.7 1.0% 23.0 2.1 1.1 8.2% ARTO 5.7 3.6 161.3 0.6% -5.7% 0.1% 0.1% -49.5 0.6% 62.2 -0.8 1.7 -13.7%
INCO 2.0 9.3 21.2 4.7% -1.6% 4.8% 4.3% 38.7 0.8% 63.4 0.6 1.1 4.6%
BRMS 1.6 4.1 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 36.3 0.8% 105.1 0.3 0.9 15.7% Infrastructures 2.5 11.9 19.4 5.6% -0.8% 5.1% 5.3% -626.3 7.9% 471.3 -3.5 0.7 -3.9%
MTEL 1.6 6.1 26.5 3.8% -2.6% 3.3% 3.3% -129.0 1.6% 14.9 -8.6 0.5 -15.6%
Financials 1.7 10.2 10.7 10.2% 3.9% 7.9% 8.6% 793.9 16.5% 321.5 1.8 1.6 4.9% TLKM 2.8 20.6 13.8 7.2% 0.9% 6.7% 6.6% -113.5 1.4% 322.7 -0.4 0.8 2.7%
BBNI 1.1 14.9 7.8 12.8% 6.5% 11.4% 11.3% 708.5 14.7% 252.8 2.8 1.3 -0.8% TBIG 4.1 15.4 26.3 3.8% -2.5% 2.8% 3.7% -106.2 1.3% 35.8 -3.0 0.6 -8.7%
BBYB 2.0 -0.5 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 34.6 0.7% 22.9 1.5 1.9 14.7% TOWR 3.4 23.9 14.7 6.8% 0.5% 6.2% 6.6% -98.3 1.2% 30.2 -3.2 0.3 1.8%
SRTG n.a. 3.8 15.8 6.3% 0.0% 3.4% 3.4% 26.2 0.5% 33.9 0.8 1.8 -4.0% ISAT 1.9 9.2 21.3 4.7% -1.6% 2.8% 3.1% -93.0 1.2% 18.4 -5.1 0.8 -1.2%
BFIN 1.8 22.5 8.6 11.6% 5.3% 8.9% 11.2% 24.7 0.5% 11.9 2.1 1.3 9.5% WIKA n.a. 0.5 n.a. n.a. n.a. 8.5% 10.0% -43.8 0.6% 13.5 -3.3 1.1 -13.8%
EXCL 1.1 7.5 14.0 7.1% 0.8% 5.2% 3.9% -42.6 0.5% 35.8 -1.2 0.8 7.5%
Energy 1.3 27.4 4.7 21.7% 15.4% 17.3% 17.9% 694.5 14.5% 565.1 1.6 1.1 5.8%
ADRO 0.9 24.8 4.0 25.2% 18.9% 15.5% 14.2% 326.3 6.8% 265.8 1.2 1.2 -23.1% Consumer Cyclicals 1.4 15.1 9.7 15.0% 8.7% 11.0% 8.6% -375.2 4.7% 115.7 -3.8 0.9 -5.8%
BUMI n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 35.2% 38.1% 151.5 3.2% 144.1 1.1 1.2 -5.0% ACES 1.4 9.9 14.1 7.1% 0.8% 4.7% 4.3% -164.7 2.1% 66.1 -2.5 0.9 -1.2%
HRUM 1.4 31.8 5.4 18.4% 12.0% 6.0% 5.9% 149.3 3.1% 34.6 4.3 1.2 6.8% MNCN 0.4 13.1 3.4 29.3% 23.0% 21.8% 15.5% -126.1 1.6% 21.9 -5.8 1.0 -6.1%
BIPI n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 34.5 0.7% 47.3 0.7 1.0 12.7% MAPI 2.4 22.2 11.5 8.7% 2.4% 6.4% 5.8% -84.4 1.1% 27.7 -3.0 1.0 -10.0%
MEDC 1.5 25.8 4.7 21.5% 15.1% 12.3% 13.5% 33.0 0.7% 73.4 0.4 0.8 37.4%
Consumer Non-Cyclicals 5.1 17.1 24.0 5.7% -0.7% 6.9% 5.8% -288.3 3.6% 96.3 -2.9 0.8 17.3%
Consumer Non-Cyclicals 8.0 39.3 16.4 8.2% 1.8% 7.7% 6.0% 356.0 7.4% 167.6 2.3 0.6 5.8% AMRT 9.3 27.9 36.3 2.8% -3.6% 3.5% 3.0% -183.5 2.3% 55.6 -3.3 0.9 6.8%
UNVR 32.5 128.7 27.3 3.7% -2.7% 3.7% 2.8% 164.3 3.4% 43.5 3.8 0.5 -0.9% GGRM 0.8 6.3 11.7 8.6% 2.2% 10.3% 8.5% -104.8 1.3% 40.7 -2.6 0.7 27.8%
HMSP 4.1 26.6 16.1 6.2% -0.1% 6.7% 5.0% 66.9 1.4% 22.7 2.9 0.7 16.1%
JPFA 1.0 14.3 6.6 15.2% 8.9% 11.1% 10.4% 43.9 0.9% 19.8 2.2 0.8 4.2% Basic Materials 1.4 8.5 16.1 6.4% 0.0% 5.7% 4.4% -253.2 3.2% 117.5 -2.4 0.9 6.8%
SSMS 1.8 23.5 7.5 13.3% 7.0% 13.9% 9.0% 30.4 0.6% 16.9 1.8 0.8 7.8% SMGR 1.1 7.7 13.6 7.3% 1.0% 6.5% 5.1% -155.0 2.0% 84.5 -1.8 0.9 12.5%
ICBP 2.8 18.8 14.8 6.7% 0.4% 7.1% 5.3% 26.5 0.6% 55.3 0.5 0.5 1.0% INTP 1.8 9.3 18.5 5.4% -0.9% 4.9% 3.7% -98.2 1.2% 33.0 -3.0 0.8 1.0%
CMRY 5.8 24.2 26.1 3.8% -2.5% 3.8% 3.8% 24.1 0.5% 9.5 2.6 0.7 6.6%
Industrials 1.2 14.3 8.5 11.7% 5.4% 5.2% 4.8% -233.6 2.9% 312.0 -2.1 1.1 5.1%
Healthcare 5.5 18.5 30.5 3.4% -3.0% 3.7% 3.4% 250.5 5.2% 226.4 1.9 0.5 -1.3% ASII 1.2 14.3 8.5 11.7% 5.4% 9.6% 8.7% -133.8 1.7% 285.4 -0.5 1.0 5.3%
MIKA 6.6 19.8 35.4 2.8% -3.5% 2.9% 2.6% 104.7 2.2% 32.0 3.3 0.3 -6.3% EMTK n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.8% 0.8% -99.8 1.3% 26.5 -3.8 1.2 4.9%
KLBF 4.3 17.3 25.6 3.9% -2.4% 4.4% 4.1% 85.9 1.8% 43.1 2.0 0.5 -1.4%
CARE n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 59.9 1.2% 151.4 0.4 0.7 3.8% Transportation & Logistic n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 4.4% -115.0 1.5% 21.1 -5.5 0.4 -51.9%
GIAA n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 4.4% -115.0 1.5% 21.1 -5.5 0.4 -51.9%
Consumer Cyclicals 1.3 18.3 7.4 13.8% 7.4% 10.9% 10.2% 95.7 2.0% 38.5 3.4 1.0 3.7%
ERAA 1.0 17.0 6.0 16.7% 10.4% 12.6% 11.1% 40.2 0.8% 15.5 2.6 0.8 7.1% Energy 1.5 43.9 3.4 29.4% 23.1% 17.5% 15.3% -97.1 1.2% 89.9 -1.1 0.8 -7.2%
MAPA 2.2 27.5 8.5 11.7% 5.4% 8.4% 7.7% 29.2 0.6% 4.6 6.3 1.2 -1.3% ITMG 1.5 43.9 3.4 29.4% 23.1% 17.5% 15.3% -97.1 1.2% 89.9 -1.1 0.8 -7.2%
MPMX 0.8 10.4 7.8 12.9% 6.5% 11.8% 11.8% 26.3 0.5% 18.4 1.4 1.1 5.4%

Technology 0.8 -16.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 69.4 1.4% 346.3 0.2 2.9 23.1%
GOTO 0.8 -16.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 69.4 1.4% 346.3 0.2 2.9 23.1%

Infrastructures 1.0 7.8 11.5 8.7% 2.3% 6.3% 5.8% 41.7 0.9% 10.2 4.1 0.8 6.0%
JSMR 1.0 7.8 11.5 8.7% 2.3% 6.3% 5.8% 41.7 0.9% 10.2 4.1 0.8 6.0%

Transportation & Logistic 0.8 15.4 9.5 10.6% 4.2% 5.5% 5.4% 31.5 0.7% 8.0 3.9 1.2 14.5%
BIRD 0.8 15.4 9.5 10.6% 4.2% 5.5% 5.4% 31.5 0.7% 8.0 3.9 1.2 14.5%

Properties & Real Estate 0.5 4.9 11.3 8.8% 2.5% 8.1% 8.8% 25.4 0.5% 9.2 2.8 0.9 1.6%
BSDE 0.5 4.9 11.3 8.8% 2.5% 8.1% 8.8% 25.4 0.5% 9.2 2.8 0.9 1.6%

Others < 1% to inflow 468.5 10% Others < 1% to outflow -827.9 10%

Total - inflow (Rp bn) 4,803.5 Total - outflow (Rp bn) -7,926.7
JCI - net foreign flow (Rp bn) (3,123.19)

SOURCES: BNIS RESEARCH, BLOOMBERG IDX 12

 Strategy │Monthly recap and flow │3 Feb 23

JCI key movers in Jan-23: energy and financials

Fig 42: JCI Jan-23 - top 30 index movers (15 leaders and 15 laggards) vs. foreign net flow Fig 43: JCI’s top 30 index movers (leaders) in Jan-23 vs. changes in investors’ weight
Jan-23 Jan-23
JCI pt Δ - net -11.277 A Total foreign net
(3,123.19) D Share px Changes in ownership weighting (pt, mom)
JCI - % Δ -0.16% inflow (outflow)- Rp bn JCI top % index
∆ - mom
gainers move Domestic Domestic Domestic Domestic Foreign Foreign Foreign Foreign
Jan-23: top JCI's 15 leaders and 15 laggards B C= B/A E F=E/D %
% contr. % to total IS PF MF ID IS PF MF ID
Δ JCI pt - Foreign net inflow Share px -
Ticker Name to Δ JCI foreign net 1 GOTO 23.08 356.3% 0.24% -0.06% 0.38% 0.19% 0.07% 0.07% 0.16% -0.14%
net (outflow) - Rp bn %Δ
pt flow
2 MDKA 14.56 155.3% 0.24% 0.14% 0.28% 0.16% 0.33% 0.12% 0.19% -0.64%
Technology 43.9 390% 53.92 1.7%
GOTO GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT 40.2 356% 69.36 2.2% 23% 3 ASII 5.26 125.7% 0.36% 0.33% 0.28% 0.05% 0.02% 0.32% 0.42% -0.03%
BUKA Bukalapak.com PT Tbk 3.8 33% (15.44) -0.5% 11% 4 TLKM 2.67 109.0% 0.50% 0.36% 0.22% -0.03% 0.03% 0.72% 0.32% -0.12%
Basic Materials 22.9 203% 1,600.29 51.2%
MDKA Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk PT 17.5 155% 1,051.96 33.7% 15% 5 AMRT 6.79 78.0% 0.03% 0.02% 0.05% 0.05% 0.10% 0.09% 0.13% 0.00%
ANTM Aneka Tambang Tbk 7.0 63% 592.87 19.0% 16% 6 ANTM 16.37 62.5% 0.15% 0.11% 0.33% 0.02% 0.08% 0.13% 0.11% -0.04%
SMGR Semen Indonesia Persero Tbk PT 6.4 57% (154.96) -5.0% 13%
7 SMGR 12.55 57.2% 0.24% 0.14% 0.29% 0.00% 0.05% 0.16% 0.09% -0.01%
BRMS Bumi Resources Minerals Tbk PT 5.2 46% 36.27 1.2% 16%
BRPT Barito Pacific Tbk PT 4.8 42% 83.67 2.7% 9% 8 MEDC 37.44 55.3% 0.13% 0.11% 0.27% 0.06% 0.01% 0.06% 0.05% -0.03%
TPIA Chandra Asri Petrochemical Tbk (8.7) -77% (4.60) -0.1% -10% 9 MEGA 8.06 47.6% 0.18% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -0.05%
BEBS Berkah Beton Sadaya Tbk PT (9.4) -84% (4.92) -0.2% -20%
10 BRMS 15.72 46.2% 0.02% 0.00% 0.03% 0.09% 0.00% 0.00% 0.03% -0.02%
Consumer Non-Cyclicals 18.9 168% (244.06) -7.8%
AMRT Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk PT 8.8 78% (183.51) -5.9% 7% 11 BRPT 9.27 42.2% 0.02% 0.02% 0.05% 0.54% 0.02% 0.03% 0.03% -0.01%
GGRM Gudang Garam Tbk PT 4.1 36% (104.81) -3.4% 28% 12 GGRM 27.78 36.4% 0.03% 0.06% 0.08% 0.06% 0.02% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03%
HMSP Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk 3.0 27% 66.86 2.1% 16%
CPIN Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk 3.0 26% (22.59) -0.7% 3% 13 BUKA 10.69 33.4% 0.09% 0.05% 0.08% 0.04% 0.02% 0.04% 0.03% -0.10%
Industrials 8.6 76% (140.27) -4.5% 14 HMSP 16.07 26.8% 0.01% 0.08% -0.02% 0.07% 0.00% 0.01% 0.02% -0.01%
ASII Astra International Tbk PT 14.2 126% (133.79) -4.3% 5%
15 CPIN 3.10 26.5% 0.06% -0.05% -0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.03% 0.00%
UNTR United Tractors Tbk PT (5.6) -49% (6.48) -0.2% -6%
Infrastructures 5.1 46% (348.69) -11.2% 16 PNLF 25.14 21.2% 0.02% 0.03% 0.13% 0.04% 0.00% 0.01% 0.02% -0.03%
TLKM Telkom Indonesia Persero Tbk P 12.3 109% (113.46) -3.6% 3% 17 BIPI 12.66 20.3% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.03% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% -0.02%
TBIG Tower Bersama Infrastructure T (3.0) -26% (106.19) -3.4% -9%
18 EMTK 4.85 17.6% 0.03% 0.00% 0.03% -0.29% 0.00% 0.01% 0.02% 27.13%
MTEL Dayamitra Telekomunikasi PT (4.2) -37% (129.04) -4.1% -16%
Consumer Cyclicals (6.0) -53% (70.26) -2.2% 19 ESSA 8.20 17.2% 0.01% 0.02% -0.01% 0.04% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% -0.06%
FILM MD Pictures Tbk PT (2.9) -26% 14.12 0.5% -50% 20 BFIN 9.48 15.8% 0.02% 0.03% 0.01% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.03% 0.01%
MAPI Mitra Adiperkasa Tbk PT (3.0) -27% (84.38) -2.7% -10%
Financials (42.8) -380% (3,112.51) -99.7% 21 INCO 4.58 15.1% 0.05% 0.03% 0.04% 0.00% 0.02% 0.03% 0.03% -0.05%
MEGA Bank Mega Tbk PT 5.4 48% (0.13) 0.0% 8% 22 EXCL 7.48 15.0% 0.07% 0.09% 0.11% 0.00% -0.07% 0.02% 0.01% -0.07%
ARTO Bank Jago Tbk PT (5.1) -45% (49.52) -1.6% -14%
23 BBYB 14.73 14.8% 0.01% 0.01% 0.04% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -0.03%
BBCA Bank Central Asia Tbk PT (5.4) -48% (1,753.72) -56.2% -1%
BBRI Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero (37.7) -334% (1,309.14) -41.9% -6% 24 TMAS 29.56 13.6% 0.03% 0.00% 0.02% 0.04% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -0.03%
Energy (44.5) -395% 176.95 5.7% 25 CMRY 6.59 12.5% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% -0.11% 0.00% 0.03% 0.01% -0.04%
MEDC Medco Energi Internasional Tbk 6.2 55% 33.00 1.1% 37%
26 SSIA 55.47 11.8% 0.01% 0.01% 0.11% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01%
ITMG Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk PT (2.9) -25% (97.15) -3.1% -7%
PTBA Bukit Asam Tbk PT (2.9) -26% (35.54) -1.1% -8% 27 TCPI 5.66 11.4% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.04% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
PGAS Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk PT (5.8) -52% (18.75) -0.6% -12% 28 BMRI 0.25 10.5% 0.32% 0.05% 0.22% 0.06% 0.17% 0.17% -0.24% -0.04%
BYAN Bayan Resources Tbk PT (17.6) -156% (30.91) -1.0% -4%
ADRO Adaro Energy Indonesia Tbk PT (21.6) -191% 326.30 10.4% -18%
29 TOWR 1.82 9.8% 0.04% 0.01% 0.03% 0.00% -0.01% 0.02% 0.01% -0.03%
Grand Total 6.2 55% (2,084.6) -66.7% 30 DCII 2.51 9.4% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.04% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

SOURCES: BNIS RESEARCH, BLOOMBERG, KSEI, IDX 13

Strategy │Monthly recap and flow │3 Feb 23

Domestic institution increased its position by 30bps mom in Jan-23, while

domestic retail still dominated the JCI
Fig 47: Domestic and foreign investors weight by sector at the
Fig 44: JCI - sector performances in Jan-23 Fig 45: JCI ownerships at end of respective year and month
end of Jan-23
100%
Domestic - Foreign -
90%
Domestic - Domestic- Institution + Foreign- Institution +

34.2%

34.2%
Technology 6.2%

37.4%
39.3%
42.8%
retail Institution retail Foreign - retail Institution retail

44.6%
80%

46.8%

47.8%
48.7%
44.3%

50.7%
Sector Dec-22 Jan-23 Dec-22 Jan-23 Dec-22 Jan-23 Dec-22 Jan-23 Dec-22 Jan-23 Dec-22 Jan-23
70%
Basic Materials OW OW N OW OW OW OW UW UW UW UW UW
Basic Material 3.5% 60%
Consumer Cyclicals N N OW OW OW OW OW OW UW UW UW UW
50% UW UW OW OW OW OW UW UW UW UW UW UW

31.5%
Consumer Non-Cyclicals

26.0%

38.0%
25.1%
21.5%

47.5%
48.1%
22.0%
18.6%

22.3%
18.1%
40% Energy OW OW UW UW OW OW OW UW UW UW UW UW
Cons. Non-Cyc. 3.1% Financials UW UW OW OW UW UW UW UW OW OW OW OW
30%
Healthcare UW UW OW OW N N UW UW N N N N

31.5%
20%

30.7%
30.7%

30.0%

29.8%
29.7%

28.9%

28.8%

23.7%
Industrials UW UW OW OW UW UW UW OW OW OW OW OW

17.4%
17.1%
Financials 10%
-0.1% Infrastructures UW UW OW OW UW UW UW UW OW OW OW OW
0% Properties & Real Estate OW OW OW OW OW OW UW UW UW UW UW UW
Technology OW OW OW OW OW OW OW OW UW UW UW UW
JCI -0.2% Domestic - institution Domestic - retail Foreign - institution Foreign - retail
Transportation & Logistic OW OW N N N N OW OW UW UW UW UW
Notes: Institution includes mutual fund, insurance, and pension fund

Industrials -0.3% Fig 46: Changes in domestic and foreign institution Fig 48: Domestic and foreign institution investors weight by
investors weight in the month of Jan-23 sector at the end of Jan-23

Properties & RE -0.6% Domestic- Foreign- Domestic - Domestic - Domestic - Foreign - Foreign - Foreign -
insurance pension fund mutual fund insurance pension fund mutual fund
Domestic- Domestic- Institution Foreign- Foreign- Institution
Sector retail Institution + retail retail Institution + retail Sector Dec-22 Jan-23 Dec-22 Jan-23 Dec-22 Jan-23 Dec-22 Jan-23 Dec-22 Jan-23 Dec-22 Jan-23

Basic Materials 0.53% 0.85% 0.60% -3.02% 0.50% 0.45% Basic Materials OW OW UW UW UW N UW UW UW UW UW UW
Healthcare -1.2%
Consumer Cyclicals -0.04% -0.04% -0.04% -0.79% -0.08% -0.09% Consumer Cyclicals N N OW OW OW OW UW UW UW UW UW UW
Consumer Non-Cyclicals 0.18% 0.08% 0.18% -1.12% 0.29% 0.25% Consumer Non-Cyclicals OW OW OW OW OW OW UW UW UW UW UW UW
Energy -1.38% -0.99% -1.51% -11.41% -0.34% -0.40% Energy UW UW UW UW UW UW UW UW UW UW UW UW
Infrastructure -1.9%
Financials 0.50% -0.60% 0.35% -8.61% -1.29% -1.67% Financials OW OW OW OW OW OW OW OW OW OW OW OW
Healthcare 0.04% -0.16% 0.00% -0.11% 0.00% -0.02% Healthcare OW OW OW OW OW OW UW UW UW UW OW OW

Cons. Cyclical
Industrials -0.25% 0.11% -0.14% 26.48% 0.35% 0.95% Industrials OW OW OW OW OW OW UW UW OW OW OW OW
-3.5%
Infrastructures -0.06% 0.46% 0.14% -0.70% 0.39% 0.32% Infrastructures OW OW OW OW OW OW OW OW OW OW OW OW
Properties & Real Estate 0.12% -0.01% 0.09% -0.33% 0.02% 0.01% Properties & Real Estate OW OW OW OW OW OW UW UW UW UW UW UW

Energy
Technology 0.25% 0.26% 0.25% -0.39% 0.16% 0.17% Technology N N UW UW OW OW UW UW UW UW UW UW
-4.7%
Transportation & Logistic 0.08% 0.03% 0.07% -0.11% 0.01% 0.01% Transportation & Logistic N N OW OW N N UW UW UW UW UW UW

-10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0%

SOURCES: BNIS RESEARCH, BLOOMBERG, KSEI 14

 Strategy │Monthly recap and flow │3 Feb 23

Institutional investors generally increased stock holdings in Jan-23

Fig 49: Investors ownership among BNIS stocks coverage – Underweight/Overweight relatives to its weight in JCI
Domestic-retail Domestic-institutions Foreign-retail Foreign-institutions
Sector Company
Jan-23 2022 2021 2020 Jan-23 2022 2021 2020 Jan-23 2022 2021 2020 Jan-23 2022 2021 2020
Basic Materials SMGR -0.5% -0.5% -0.5% -1.4% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.7% -0.7% -0.6% -0.8% -1.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.6%
Consumer Cyclicals ACES 0.0% 0.0% -0.2% -0.4% 0.0% 0.0% -0.1% -0.2% -0.1% -0.1% -0.3% -0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.5%
ERAA 0.0% 0.0% -0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% -0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.1% -0.1%
LPPF 0.0% 0.0% -0.1% 0.0% -0.1% -0.1% -0.2% -0.1% -0.1% -0.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
MAPI -0.3% -0.3% -0.2% -0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% -0.3% -0.3% -0.2% -0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
RALS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consumer Non-Cyclicals CPIN -0.4% -0.3% -0.4% -0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% -0.4% -0.4% -0.6% -0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
INDF -0.6% -0.6% -0.6% -0.7% 1.3% 1.3% 1.0% 1.0% -0.5% -0.4% -0.6% -0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% -0.1%
ICBP -0.6% -0.6% -0.4% -0.5% 1.2% 1.2% 0.8% 0.9% -0.7% -0.7% -0.8% -0.8% 0.2% 0.2% -0.1% -0.3%
KLBF -0.8% -0.8% -0.6% -0.3% 0.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.4% -1.1% -1.1% -1.1% -1.1% 0.8% 0.8% 0.5% 0.0%
MYOR -0.2% -0.2% -0.1% -0.2% 0.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.5% -0.2% -0.2% -0.2% -0.3% -0.1% -0.1% 0.0% -0.2%
SIDO 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% -0.2% -0.2% -0.2% -0.2% 0.0% 0.0% -0.1% -0.2%
AMRT -0.3% -0.3% 0.0% 0.2% -0.3% -0.2% 0.0% -0.2% -1.0% -0.9% -0.4% -0.3% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.1%
UNVR -0.4% -0.4% -0.3% -1.3% 0.7% 0.7% 0.5% 1.6% -0.7% -0.6% -0.8% -1.7% 0.3% 0.3% -0.1% -0.2%
Financials BANK -0.1% -0.1% n.a. n.a. 0.4% 0.5% n.a. n.a. -0.1% -0.1% n.a. n.a. -0.1% -0.1% n.a. n.a.
BTPS -0.1% -0.1% -0.3% -0.3% 0.0% 0.0% -0.2% -0.2% -0.1% -0.1% -0.2% -0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.4%
BBCA -8.8% -8.9% -9.3% -9.5% -4.5% -4.6% -6.7% -6.4% 3.1% 8.7% 4.5% -7.9% 14.5% 14.7% 13.6% 12.4%
ARTO 0.1% 0.1% 0.8% 0.4% -0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% -0.2% -0.2% -1.3% -0.3% -0.1% -0.1% -0.8% -0.3%
BMRI -4.6% -4.6% -4.3% -4.1% 1.1% 0.9% 0.6% 0.5% -5.0% -4.9% -4.8% -4.6% 6.0% 6.1% 4.1% 2.9%
BBNI -1.4% -1.4% -1.1% -0.5% 2.3% 2.6% 2.0% 1.4% -1.9% -1.9% 3.4% -1.8% 0.7% 0.7% -0.3% -0.6%
BBYB 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 4.5% 0.3% -0.1% -0.1% -0.4% 0.0%
BBRI -6.6% -7.1% -7.1% -7.0% 0.4% 0.6% -1.9% -1.2% -7.0% -7.1% -8.4% -5.3% 9.2% 9.8% 8.6% 6.6%
BRIS 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% -0.2% -0.2% -0.2% -0.3% -0.1% -0.1% -0.2% -0.3%
BBTN -0.1% -0.1% -0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% -0.2% -0.2% -0.3% -0.3% -0.1% -0.1% -0.2% -0.2%
Healthcare MIKA -0.2% -0.2% -0.2% -0.2% 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% -0.2% -0.2% -0.2% -0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
HEAL 0.5% 0.5% 0.8% 0.9% -0.5% -0.5% -0.5% -0.4% -0.6% -0.6% -0.6% -0.5% -0.4% -0.4% -0.4% -0.4%
Infrastructures JSMR -0.1% -0.1% -0.3% -0.4% 0.6% 0.5% 0.8% 0.8% -0.1% -0.1% -0.3% -0.3% -0.1% -0.1% -0.2% -0.3%
Mineral Mining ADMR 0.0% 0.0% n.a. n.a. 0.4% 0.4% n.a. n.a. 0.2% 0.4% n.a. n.a. -0.2% -0.3% n.a. n.a.
ANTM -0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% -0.5% -0.4% -0.6% -0.3% -0.1% -0.1% -0.3% -0.6%
MDKA -0.1% -0.1% 0.3% 0.7% 1.3% 1.3% 0.5% -0.1% 1.7% 2.5% 1.1% 3.8% -0.6% -0.6% -0.7% -0.5%
INCO -0.3% -0.2% 0.0% -0.1% 0.8% 0.7% 0.3% 0.5% -0.2% -0.1% -0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.2% -0.3%
Coal Mining ADRO 0.3% 0.3% 0.7% 0.9% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% -1.3% -1.5% 1.2% -0.8% -0.4% -0.6% -0.8% -0.7%
PTBA 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% -0.3% -0.3% -0.3% -0.3% -0.1% -0.1% -0.2% -0.3%
HRUM 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% -0.1% -0.1% 1.1% 0.0% -0.1% -0.1% -0.2% -0.1%
ITMG 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% -0.1% -0.1% -0.4% -0.4% 0.0% -0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.1%
UNTR -0.8% -0.9% -1.0% -1.4% 0.9% 1.1% 0.9% 1.2% -0.9% -0.9% -1.3% -1.6% 0.7% 0.7% 0.5% 0.3%
Property BSDE 0.0% 0.0% -0.1% -0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% -0.1% -0.1% -0.3% -0.3% -0.1% -0.1% -0.2% -0.2%
CTRA -0.1% -0.1% -0.1% -0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% -0.2% -0.2% -0.3% -0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
PWON -0.2% -0.2% -0.2% -0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% -0.2% -0.2% -0.3% -0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
SMRA 0.0% 0.0% -0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% -0.2% -0.1% 0.0% -0.2% -0.1% -0.1% -0.2% -0.1%
Technology BUKA 0.0% 0.0% n.a. n.a. 0.3% 0.2% n.a. n.a. 0.0% 0.2% n.a. n.a. -0.2% -0.2% n.a. n.a.
GOTO 0.0% n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.6% n.a. n.a. n.a. 2.1% n.a. n.a. n.a. -0.3% n.a. n.a. n.a.
Telecommunication MORA 0.0% n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.0% n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.0% n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.0% n.a. n.a. n.a.
TLKM -4.3% -4.0% -5.4% -4.7% 3.9% 3.8% 3.6% 2.2% -4.3% -4.0% -5.4% -2.2% 4.1% 3.9% 3.4% 2.2%
Utility PGAS -0.2% -0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.7% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% -0.4% -0.4% -0.4% -0.5% -0.1% -0.1% -0.4% -0.4%

SOURCES: BNIS RESEARCH, KSEI 15

Strategy │Monthly recap and flow │3 Feb 23

Jan-23 inflation was better than expected with benign core inflation
Fig 50: Key macro data releases and forecasts

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 9M21 9M22 BNIS 2022F BNIS 2023F
FDI (US$ mn) 32,240 29,308 28,209 28,666 31,093 10,259 11,370 11,769 22,722 33,398
Current Account (US$ mn) -16,196 -30,632 -30,278 -4,433 3,430 569 4,023 4,376 1,941 8,969 5,200 -2,200
Current Account (as % to GDP) -1.60% -2.94% -2.70% -0.47% 0.28% 0.18% 1.14% 1.28% 0.20% 0.88% 0.40% -0.20%
Nominal GDP (US$ bn) 1,012 1,034 1,123 1,041 1,178 314 330 341 871 994
Nominal GDP Growth (% yoy) 9.58% 9.19% 6.70% -2.49% 9.93% 13.65% 17.80% 17.71% 8.40% 16.46%
Real GDP Growth (% yoy) 5.07% 5.17% 5.02% -2.07% 3.69% 5.01% 5.44% 5.72% 3.24% 5.40% 5.20% 5.00%

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Jan-23 BNIS 2023F

CPI (% yoy) 3.61% 3.13% 2.59% 1.68% 1.87% 4.21% 5.28% 3.80%
BI Rate 4.25% 6.00% 5.00% 3.75% 3.50% 5.50% 5.75% 5.75%
Trade Balance (US$ mn) 11,843 -8,699 -3,593 21,623 35,420 54,456 n.a.
Forex Reserve (US$bn) 130.2 120.7 129.2 135.9 144.9 137.2 n.a.
PMI n.a. n.a. 49.5 51.3 53.5 50.9 51.3
Consumer Confidence Index 126.4 127.0 126.4 96.5 118.3 119.9 n.a.

SOURCES: BNIS RESEARCH, BLOOMBERG, BANK INDONESIA 16

 Strategy │Monthly recap and flow │3 Feb 23

Valuation comparison table

Equity Valuation Outstanding Last Price Core Net Profit
3M 12M Shares Price Target Mkt Cap (Rp Bn) EPS Grow th PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) Div.Yield ROE PCF EBITDA Grow th Net Gearing
Code Rating Rating (Mn) (Rp) (Rp) (Rp Bn) 2022 2023 2024 2022 2023 2022 2023 2022 2023 2022 2023 2022 2023 2022 2023 2022 2023 2022 2023 2022 2023
BNI Universe 4,818,060 196,066.6 202,850.1 213,344.3 74.2% 10.1% 13.5 12.2 14.8 14.8 2.5 2.3 3.7% 4.2% 19.3% 19.6% 34.5 32.3 26.9% -1.0%
Basic Materials 43,448 2,547.6 3,169.1 4,159.0 26.0% 24.4% 17.1 13.7 7.1 6.2 1.2 1.1 2.4% 2.6% 6.9% 8.2% 11.8 8.7 -1.1% 9.8%
Semen Indonesia SMGR Buy Buy 5,932 7,325 9,300 43,448 2,547.6 3,169.1 4,159.0 26.0% 24.4% 17.1 13.7 7.1 6.2 1.2 1.1 2.4% 2.6% 6.9% 8.2% 11.8 8.7 -1.1% 9.8% 35.5% 27.8%
Consum er 816,525 80,910.0 96,296.7 106,864.6 139.8% 16.8% 9.9 8.5 14.1 12.5 5.7 5.1 2.2% 2.1% 51.4% 63.0% 34.1 19.7 -8.2% 10.7%
Consum er cyclicals 54,789 4,950.4 5,770.4 6,440.3 47.4% 16.6% 11.1 9.5 4.4 3.4 2.1 1.9 2.7% 4.5% 20.7% 21.1% 14.0 6.3 30.3% 21.4%
Ace Hardw are Indonesia ACES Buy Buy 17,075 492 600 8,401 519.0 721.2 840.3 -29.2% 39.0% 16.2 11.6 5.9 4.3 1.5 1.4 4.2% 3.0% 9.3% 12.3% 19.9 9.7 -16.1% 25.7% -42.4% -47.3%
Erajaya Sw asembada ERAA Buy Buy 15,950 484 450 7,720 926.5 1,195.0 1,198.2 -8.5% 29.0% 8.3 6.5 5.8 4.4 1.2 1.0 4.7% 4.2% 14.5% 16.8% - 35.1 6.9 0.5% 23.7% 24.3% 14.3%
Matahari Department Store LPPF Buy Buy 2,394 4,490 5,600 10,749 944.8 1,122.1 1,369.1 13.4% 18.8% 11.4 9.6 4.2 3.8 6.8 6.5 5.6% 11.7% 73.1% 69.7% 8.5 6.1 25.8% 13.3% -55.3% -52.2%
Mitra Adiperkasa MAPI Buy Buy 16,537 1,405 1,600 23,234 2,122.7 2,148.2 2,403.4 383.6% 1.2% 10.9 10.8 3.9 2.9 2.9 2.4 0.0% 2.0% 30.6% 24.3% 12.9 5.5 58.3% 23.1% -22.4% -34.7%
Ramayana Lestari Sentosa RALS Buy Buy 6,740 695 650 4,685 437.5 583.9 629.3 68.2% 33.5% 10.7 8.0 3.7 2.4 1.3 1.2 4.0% 3.4% 11.9% 15.0% 7.2 6.5 69.1% 23.3% -52.2% -61.5%
Consum er non cyclicals 761,736 75,959.7 90,526.3 100,424.3 149.8% 16.8% 9.8 8.4 16.2 14.7 6.4 5.8 2.2% 1.9% 56.7% 72.1% 38.0 23.3 -13.7% 8.5%
Charoen Pokphand Indonesia CPIN Sell Hold 16,418 5,825 5,800 95,635 4,214.5 4,463.3 5,281.7 16.5% 5.9% 22.7 21.4 14.6 13.6 3.5 3.2 1.9% 2.1% 16.0% 15.5% 32.1 36.2 20.8% 7.1% 11.9% 10.0%
Indofood Sukses Makmur INDF Buy Buy 8,780 6,700 7,700 58,829 6,134.5 9,877.4 11,240.7 -9.8% 43.3% 8.5 6.0 3.9 3.6 1.1 1.0 4.1% 5.9% 13.7% 17.7% 10.3 4.2 9.6% 0.4% 32.2% 22.3%
Indofood CBP ICBP Buy Buy 11,662 10,375 12,000 120,992 50,163.6 57,754.8 62,533.3 692.3% 14.1% 2.4 2.1 n/a n/a 17.4 17.4 2.1% 0.0% 247.8% 829.3% - 89.4 697.5 ###### 0.0% 611.9% 616.8%
Kalbe Farma KLBF Hold Hold 468,751 2,220 2,200 104,063 4,323.1 5,046.5 5,746.9 36.9% 14.1% 23.5 20.6 20.9 18.1 158.9 158.9 1.6% 0.0% 43.7% 770.7% 33.8 23.8 7.2% 15.3% 19.4% 74.9%
Mayora Indah MYOR Buy Buy 22,359 2,470 2,900 55,226 1,434.3 2,248.0 2,565.8 41.9% 33.5% 32.8 24.6 17.6 12.9 4.5 4.0 0.8% 1.2% 14.4% 17.1% 420.8 30.4 22.1% 34.0% 20.0% 11.8%
Sido Muncul SIDO Buy Buy 30,000 790 800 23,562 1,047.0 1,234.5 1,430.5 -17.0% 17.9% 22.5 19.1 16.1 13.6 7.0 6.6 4.8% 4.4% 30.5% 35.5% 26.3 20.6 -14.6% 17.5% -26.3% -28.6%
Sumber Alfaria Trijaya AMRT Buy Buy 41,525 2,980 3,400 123,743 2,697.7 3,423.1 4,027.1 38.3% 26.9% 45.9 36.1 30.3 24.3 11.6 9.6 0.6% 1.0% 27.7% 29.0% 87.7 51.6 26.0% 23.7% -16.0% -20.7%
Unilever Indonesia UNVR Sell Sell 38,150 4,710 4,800 179,687 5,944.9 6,478.8 7,598.4 3.2% 9.0% 30.2 27.7 21.0 19.3 39.5 35.4 3.2% 3.3% 134.1% 134.7% 25.0 28.7 0.1% 8.7% 14.9% 7.6%
Financial 2,606,780 152,679.6 179,159.7 201,113.1 43.7% 20.8% 16.4 13.6 2.7 2.5 3.8% 4.5% 17.0% 18.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Bank Aladin BANK Hold Hold 1,000 1,350 1,700 19,757 - 170.6 - 90.7 4.4 -27.0% 46.8% n/a n/a n/a n/a 5.7 5.9 0.0% 0.0% -7.6% -2.7% n/a n/a 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bank BTPN Syariah BTPS Hold Buy 7,704 2,620 3,700 20,184 1,792.2 2,504.6 3,204.0 22.3% 39.7% 11.3 8.1 n/a n/a 2.4 1.9 2.2% 2.7% 23.0% 26.5% n/a n/a 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bank Central Asia BBCA Buy Buy 123,275 8,650 10,000 1,066,329 40,735.7 49,798.2 53,411.2 29.6% 22.2% 26.2 21.4 n/a n/a 4.8 4.3 1.8% 3.0% 19.2% 21.2% n/a n/a 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bank Jago ARTO Sell Hold 13,856 3,620 6,000 50,160 93.2 326.3 839.0 8.4% 250.0% #### #### n/a n/a 6.0 5.8 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 3.8% n/a n/a 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bank Mandiri BMRI Hold Hold 46,667 9,925 10,700 463,167 40,931.9 46,788.5 50,967.4 46.9% 16.3% 11.2 9.7 n/a n/a 2.0 2.1 5.3% 4.7% 19.0% 21.3% n/a n/a 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bank Negara Indonesia* BBNI NR NR 18,649 9,325 NR 173,899 17,538.0 20,672.0 23,822.0 69.4% 30.3% 9.4 7.2 n/a n/a 1.3 1.1 3.7% 4.8% 14.5% 16.2% n/a n/a 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bank Neo Commerce BBYB Hold Buy 12,039 815 1,000 11,442 - 761.5 - 195.3 459.7 63.4% N/M n/a #### n/a n/a 2.5 1.9 0.0% 0.0% -17.2% 1.7% n/a n/a 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bank Rakyat Indonesia BBRI Buy Buy 151,559 4,780 5,300 724,452 50,090.0 58,391.2 65,392.4 46.2% 16.6% 14.5 12.4 n/a n/a 2.3 2.2 6.6% 7.3% 16.6% 18.2% n/a n/a 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bank Syariah Indonesia BRIS Hold Buy 46,129 1,360 1,700 62,735 4,445.9 5,916.7 7,121.9 29.5% 30.7% 14.3 10.9 n/a n/a 1.9 1.7 1.8% 2.3% 15.1% 16.2% n/a n/a 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bank Tabungan Negara BBTN Buy Hold 10,590 1,385 1,500 14,657 2,712.5 2,957.9 3,093.6 14.1% 9.0% 5.4 5.0 n/a n/a 0.6 0.6 1.9% 2.0% 12.0% 11.8% n/a n/a 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Healthcare 63,462 1,262.0 1,731.1 2,131.4 -40.8% 36.5% 48.2 35.3 22.6 17.1 7.1 6.2 1.0% 0.7% 15.2% 18.6% - 157.4 42.6 -28.7% 30.3%
Mitra Keluarga MIKA Buy Buy 14,068 2,980 3,200 40,929 924.0 1,123.2 1,301.8 -17.9% 21.6% 41.8 34.4 25.5 20.7 7.4 6.4 1.3% 1.0% 18.2% 19.8% 179.0 42.0 -15.7% 20.8% -39.3% -43.6%
Medikaloka Hermina HEAL Buy Buy 14,920 1,560 1,800 22,533 338.0 607.9 829.6 -66.0% 79.9% 66.7 37.1 19.1 13.3 6.7 5.8 0.5% 0.3% 10.2% 16.7% - 35.7 43.7 -39.8% 41.9% 28.4% 17.2%
Infrastructure 24,822 1,805.2 2,019.3 2,428.7 103.0% -40.4% 7.6 12.7 8.6 9.2 1.1 1.0 2.0% 4.0% 14.9% 8.2% - 8.0 - 24.3 11.3% 7.2%
Jasa Marga JSMR Buy Buy 7,258 3,420 4,500 24,822 1,805.2 2,019.3 2,428.7 103.0% -40.4% 7.6 12.7 8.6 9.2 1.1 1.0 2.0% 4.0% 14.9% 8.2% - 8.0 - 24.3 11.3% 7.2% 157.7% 167.4%
Mineral Mining 297,577 14,387.6 12,883.0 15,276.2 112.9% -14.4% 20.1 23.5 11.6 11.3 3.6 3.1 0.3% 0.4% 19.6% 13.9% 54.7 - 348.5 65.8% -0.4%
Adaro Minerals Indonesia (USD) ADMR Buy Hold 40,882 1,505 1,600 61,528 401.6 200.4 209.1 159.8% -49.9% 9.8 20.5 6.9 12.2 6.5 5.1 0.0% 0.0% 99.4% 28.4% 10.1 - 17.4 134.1% -44.5% 11.5% -14.8%
Aneka Tambang ANTM Buy Buy 24,031 2,330 2,700 55,992 3,403.5 3,744.3 4,429.8 94.4% 3.5% 15.5 15.0 10.78 9.23 2.38 2.2 1.7% 2.3% 16.3% 15.1% 30.2 15.2 40.6% 9.7% -4.3% -16.8%
Merdeka Copper Gold (USD) MDKA Buy Buy 22,670 4,710 5,000 106,777 75.4 142.1 205.4 162.6% 41.7% 72.3 53.3 27.4 15.7 6.4 5.8 0.0% 0.0% 10.4% 11.7% - 22.0 - 36.9 35.5% 86.2% 43.4% 45.2%
Vale Indonesia (USD) INCO Buy Buy 9,936 7,375 8,900 73,280 228.5 271.2 313.9 32.8% 19.3% 21.4 18.7 8.4 7.9 2.0 1.9 0.0% 0.0% 9.7% 10.5% 29.2 36.8 22.9% 7.8% -29.6% -32.8%
Coal Mining 278,076 87,656.5 67,938.9 55,375.5 117.8% -21.9% 3.2 4.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.0 13.8% 16.3% 41.4% 26.3% 2.8 3.9 75.3% -19.2%
Adaro (USD) ADRO Buy Buy 31,986 2,790 5,200 89,241 2,202.7 1,616.2 1,291.4 128.5% -27.4% 2.7 3.9 1.0 1.2 1.0 0.9 19.5% 21.4% 43.2% 24.9% 2.1 3.7 73.6% -22.7% -32.0% -36.0%
Bukit Asam PTBA Buy Buy 11,268 3,340 5,300 37,635 12,790.0 10,903.5 8,998.1 65.9% -16.9% 2.9 3.5 1.1 1.0 1.3 1.1 20.6% 19.5% 48.8% 34.6% 3.3 3.5 52.1% -12.9% -60.8% -66.4%
Harum Energy (USD) HRUM Buy Buy 13,518 1,665 2,400 22,508 303.9 256.0 253.2 309.9% -15.7% 4.8 5.9 2.5 2.7 1.8 1.4 0.9% 2.0% 47.3% 26.8% 4.8 6.3 208.4% -17.4% -30.4% -37.0%
Indo Tambangraya Megah (USD) ITMG Buy Buy 1,130 34,500 52,500 38,982 1,065.8 900.9 639.2 107.3% -9.1% 2.5 2.9 0.8 0.8 1.4 1.3 17.1% 25.1% 66.3% 47.5% 2.0 2.7 66.0% -14.4% -72.2% -77.7%
United Tractors UNTR Sell Buy 3,730 24,050 40,000 89,710 19,252.7 15,742.8 13,861.2 87.2% -18.2% 4.7 5.7 1.5 1.5 1.1 1.0 7.2% 9.7% 25.7% 18.5% 4.0 5.2 51.2% -11.9% -43.8% -46.5%
Property 72,021 5,099.4 5,652.3 6,002.3 13.0% 8.8% 13.2 12.2 7.2 6.9 0.9 0.9 0.6% 1.0% 7.2% 7.3% 14.6 23.4 7.0% 4.3%
Bumi Serpong Damai BSDE Sell Sell 20,913 980 850 20,495 1,410.1 1,742.3 1,497.5 4.5% 23.6% 14.5 11.8 7.7 7.1 0.6 0.6 0.0% 0.0% 4.4% 5.2% 9.3 30.7 16.0% 9.9% 18.3% 18.1%
Ciputra Development CTRA Sell Hold 18,535 1,005 930 18,628 1,644.5 1,447.1 1,659.6 14.4% -13.7% 9.4 10.9 5.5 6.2 1.0 0.9 1.0% 2.1% 11.1% 8.8% 7.0 21.7 1.0% -8.4% 2.2% 4.0%
Pakuw on Jati PWON Sell Sell 48,160 462 410 22,250 1,623.0 1,828.7 2,045.0 17.4% 12.7% 13.7 12.2 7.4 7.1 1.3 1.2 0.7% 0.8% 9.7% 10.0% - 48.5 80.7 4.2% 3.7% 0.7% 0.9%
Summarecon Agung SMRA Hold Hold 16,509 645 680 10,648 421.7 634.2 800.3 22.0% 50.4% 25.2 16.8 9.2 7.5 1.2 1.1 0.9% 1.2% 4.8% 6.9% 20.6 8.3 7.6% 17.2% 61.1% 51.0%
Technology 180,565 - 29,789.4 - 20,412.7 - 12,733.5 -9.5% 29.7% - 5.1 - 8.3 1.1 1.2 0.0% 0.0% -18.1% -13.5% - 6.0 - 10.5 -14.9% 35.8%
Bukalapak BUKA Buy Buy 103,062 304 340 31,331 - 2,210.0 - 217.9 412.4 -32.1% 90.1% n/a n/a - 8.2 - 38.2 1.5 1.5 0.0% 0.0% -9.8% -1.0% - 5.1 - 138.5 -49.4% 78.6% -59.3% -60.1%
GoTo Gojek Tokopedia GOTO Buy Buy 1,184,400 126 150 149,234 - 27,579.4 - 20,194.8 - 13,145.9 87.7% 24.7% n/a n/a - 4.8 - 7.5 1.1 1.2 0.0% 0.0% -19.4% -15.5% - 6.2 - 8.8 -12.6% 32.0% -20.0% -15.1%
Telecom m unication 396,605 26,688.7 28,865.2 31,656.1 5.9% 8.0% 14.8 13.7 5.2 4.9 2.9 2.6 3.7% 4.1% 20.3% 20.0% 12.0 11.0 6.3% 5.1%
Mora Telematika Indonesia MORA Buy Buy 23,647 434 760 10,263 657.5 855.9 1,193.1 13.6% 30.2% 15.6 12.0 6.8 5.7 1.8 1.5 0.0% 0.0% 13.1% 13.6% 17.5 9.9 15.8% 16.5% 90.3% 72.9%
Telkom Indonesia TLKM Buy Buy 99,062 3,900 4,700 386,343 26,031.2 28,009.3 30,463.0 5.8% 7.5% 14.8 13.7 5.1 4.8 2.9 2.7 3.8% 4.2% 20.6% 20.3% 11.9 11.0 6.1% 4.8% 16.9% 11.4%
Utility 38,180 5,498.9 4,707.2 2,183.9 19.4% -14.4% 6.9 8.1 3.4 3.0 1.0 0.9 8.2% 9.0% 14.2% 11.4% 8.5 3.8 35.9% -1.9%
Perusahaan Gas Negara (USD) PGAS Hold Hold 24,241 1,575 1,650 38,180 353.2 316.1 146.7 9.3% -10.5% 6.9 8.1 3.4 3.0 0.9 0.9 8.2% 9.0% 13.6% 11.6% 8.1 3.9 24.4% 2.6% 25.2% 13.7%

Note : - *) means Company Data is using Bloomberg Data

- (USD) means Account under USD (USD Cents for Per Share Data)
- n/a means Not Available SOURCES: BNIS RESEARCH, BLOOMBERG 17
- N/M means Not Meaningful
Strategy │Monthly recap and flow │3 Feb 23

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