Energy Crisis and Strategy to Develop

Hydropower Potential in Gilgit-Baltistan

1. Introduction

Gilgit Baltistan spread over an area of 72469 km 2 is extremely mountainous with abundant water
resources and Hydropower potential. The area is located in the most strategic zone with
Afghanistan in the north, China in the north-east and occupied Kashmir in the south. Among
renewable energy, hydropower potential is the main and cheapest resource. Other source of
renewable energy like solar and wind would be useful when there is regional grid to absorb short
time power generation.

The article published in Newspaper as “Energy in Gilgit Baltistan” on Febraury 06, 2023 describes
the causes related with Energy crisis in GB. The factors includes challenging topography, hostile
climatic conditions, Kashmir issue for donor investment, provincial autonomy, absence of clear
regulation and polices for energy sector and corruption/mismanagement. Suggestions to improve
the situation are; efficient generation and distribution system, creation of self governing energy
department, comprehensive and integrated polices for development of untapped hydropower
potential for local and national requirement.

Figure – 1 Administrative Districts in Gilgit Baltistan

The observations indicated in the article provides the general over view of the issues for energy
crisis, there are some additional facts to understand the situation restricting the development of
potential resources.

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2 Constrains in Developing Renewable Energy Resources

Gilgit Baltistan rich in water resources and hydropower potential has a number of constraints to
meet local energy requirement as well as surplus power to National Grid. With mountainous terrain,
the area is spread over large areas administratively divided in 10 districts. A few populated areas
are: Gilgit, Skardu, Chilas, Karimabad, Gakuch and Dambudas. The population of whole areas is
estimated as 2.0 Million living at Elev. 1000 m.a.s.l to 3000 m.a.s.l. All valleys are thinly populated
and the population settlement is normally near the confluence of small stream with main
nullah/river and in some cases, it also exists inside the valley. The main income source of local
people includes: agricultural, livestock, government service and trades of goods.

The identification of small schemes on tributaries and Mega Hydropower projects was carried out
previously. There are a number of potential streams/rivers for which hydropower projects are to be
identified. GB due to its location far off from National grid was not on priority list for systematic
planning of potential sites. Small to medium size schemes developed for local power demand
remained insufficient to meet the local winter demand due to low flows in streams.

Extremely low revenue collection and losses in distribution and transmission could not attract any
investor for any even a small site development. Transmission and regional grid is essential for a
stabilize power system as medium size schemes are to be developed for growing power demand.
GB provincial departments have limited capable to develop hydropower schemes, operate and
maintain power station and distribution system. Consistence polices and the strategy is required to
identify and plan all hydropower potential river stretches and to attract investment for development
of new projects and cheap electric energy to consumers. Wapda responsible for all Pakistan
potential resources of Pakistan can play a vital role for systematic planning, development and O&M
of all medium to large to Mega Hydropower Projects in GB.

The main constrains for Energy crisis in GB can be stated as follows:

 The location of GB is far off from National grid. Gilgit is 450 km from Mansehra where 220
kV is available.

 There is no regional grid to transmit generated power to main load centres.

 The accessibility in valleys is difficult and power transmission is an issue.

 Most of hydel stations are installed on streams where flows in winter substantially reduced
and power generation in winter become low when power demand is maximum.

 The income level of majority population is low as there is almost no industry and large
cultivated area.

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 Government limited financial resources can be treated as main reasons for non exploitation
of potential sites in GB.

 With Kashmir issue, unclear political status of Gilgit Baltistan, donors are reluctant to
finance the medium size project for local requirement.

 Small and medium size schemes developed so far could not meet the power demand.

 Medium size projects require large amount to construct the project and PSDP funding for a
number of projects in different valleys and transmission system is difficult to be made.

The mounting energy needs in these areas can only be satisfied through the rational exploitation of
renewable energy sources. The interconnection of potential sites on tributaries with National grid
would pave the way for optimum potential development. The scattered population, extremely north
mountainous area, 450 km away from National grid, Transmission issue, low income level, no
Industrial demand, low revenue and low PSDP allocation are considered constraints in developing
small to medium schemes on tributaries.

3 Existing Power System in Gilgit Baltistan

The available energy options in the area are very limited. The main source of energy is wood,
kerosene oil, diesel and electric power. The firewood is extensively used for heating and cooking,
although, its availability is becoming very scarce in the entire area. The firewood consumption is
much higher than its production. The kerosene oil and diesel are imported from down country.
Diesel oil is used in small industrial units in un-electrified areas.

In the past during 1960 to 1990, micro hydel power stations less than 1 MW were installed on
streams near to main towns. During 90’s identification studies for small to medium size hydropower
projects were carried out by WAPDA with technical assistance of GTZ. A number of small to
medium size hydropower schemes were identified to meet the growing power demand. Presently
the number of existing hydel power stations in Gilgit Baltistan is 118 with aggregate installed
capacity of 170 MW. The capacity of these stations are in the range of 50 kW to 18.0 MW and in
winter the overall capacity of these stations is reduced to 110 MW.

The electric power available in towns and major villages fulfil a small portion of power demand at
domestic and commercial level. Extensive load shedding is observed due to in-efficient
transmission and distribution system, low power generation and high power demand in winter.
There is proposal to establish regional grid with transmission voltage at 132 kV to connect the main
load centre at Gilgit, Skardu, Chilas and Hunza. The available electric power in various part of GB
is graphically presented in Figure – 2.

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For major load centres, the installed capacities of hydel stations is not enough, thermal power
stations are to be operated to meet peak hour demand. The number of hydel and thermal stations
with their aggregate capacities are listed in Table 1.

Table – 1 List of Power Existing Stations in Gilgit Baltistan

Total
Hydel Hydro Thermal Present Demand
District Installed
Stations Power Power (MW)
Capacity
Nos. MW MW MW Summer Winter
Gilgit 19 58.37 9.41 67.78 43.74 82.87
Diamer 10 15.48 2.90 18.38 25.10 35.08
Skardu 19 36.90 6.00 42.9 24.14 45.07
Ghizer 14 15.37 0.90 16.27 14.38 26.38
Ghanche 12 11.94 0.40 12.34 29.80 56.71
Astore 9 5.62 0.70 6.32 13.37 22.12
Nagar 9 6.00 0.75 6.75 8.38 15.34
Hunza 8 6.08 3.51 9.59 11.07 17.78
Shigar 7 4.70 0.00 4.70 13.40 23.77
Kharmang 11 10.50 0.00 10.50 12.53 23.63
Total 118 169.98 24.57 194.55 195.9 348.8

Figure – 2 Existing Hydropower in various Districts of Gilgit Baltistan

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4 Demand Forecast

The demand forecast was initially made for whole Gilgit Baltistan along with identification study
during 1990’s. In each valley, there is insufficient power generation and demand forecast has been
made based on socio economic and power market surveys. The demand forecast was made for
domestic, commercial, public service and small industry consumers for each load centre
considering the economic conditions and energy needs. The availability of electric power will
increase the energy consumption in the area. The power demand for 10 valleys/districts during
summer and winter is indicated in Table-1.

The peak power demand for whole Gilgit Baltistan in the year 2020 is estimated as 350 MW and in
summer, it is reduced to 195 MW. The forecasted power demand for next 20 years is 740 MW. The
power demand in Gilgit-Baltistan is mostly covered by small hydropower plants (<20 MW).
Electrical energy is transmitted over short distances through 66 kV, 33 kV and 11 kV gridlines and
is further distributed to the consumers through 400 V LT systems.

5 Energy Options for Gilgit Baltistan

Keeping in view the growing power demand in the area, the hydropower being renewable
resources is considered to be the best option to be developed. During 1980’s Hydropower projects
on main Indus river was identified. Later on Comprehensive Planning of Hydropower Resources on
tributaries of Indus river in Northern Areas was carried out from 1992 to 1997 to identify the
schemes to meet the local demand as well as to link with National Grid at appropriate time.

5.1 Identified Small and Medium schemes for Regional Grid

The exploitation of hydropower schemes on small streams was based on low flows and on
stretches of nullah gradient at least 5% or more. The maximum power demand was found in month
of January and minimum flows observed flows in stream is in the month of March. Initially capacity
of scheme was identified based on flows available in January. In whole Gilgit Baltistan, on small to
medium perennial streams, a total of 122 hydel sites with aggregate capacity of 768 MW available
in winter were identified. Among the identified potential sites, schemes with least generation cost
were selected to meet the regional power demand. The candidate projects for expansion sequence
were analysed considering winter capacity, installed cost and ease to implement the scheme.

All small and medium size schemes are to be interconnected in a regional grid. The power and
energy available during summer in excess of local demand to be exported to National grid. For
interconnection with national grid, the capacities of promising schemes have been upgraded based
on discharge available 30% time of the year. 16 schemes were found to be upgraded for higher
capacity. The list of identified promising scheme with their upgraded capacity is listed in Table-2.

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 Table –2 Promising Schemes in GB Identification Study 1997
# PROJECTS DISTRICT POWER ENERGY COST/kW
(MW) (GWh) (U.S $)
1 Phandar Ghizar 80 385 1093
2 Baru Ghizar 31 166 1116
3 Chhantir Ghizar 16 77 2060
4 Naltar-III Gilgit 22 122 1286
5 Naltar-V Gilgit 32 162 1502
6 Jaglot Gilgit 16 85 1323
7 Daintar Nagar 18 95 1136
8 Altit Hunza 250 1240 1773
9 Skardu-IV Skardu 13 62 1779
10 Kachura-IV Skardu 32 151 1538
11 Basho Skardu 23 56 1180
12 Tormic Skardu 40 218 812
13 Harpo Skardu 40 216 891
14 Talu Skardu 25 127 949
15 Parishing-IV Astore 13 68 1554
16 Doyian Astore 425 1938 813
TOTAL 1072 5233

Among the identified promising schemes, Feasibility study of 5 scheme; Naltar-III 32 MW, Basho,
28 MW, Harpo 33 MW and Phandar 80 were carried out by WAPDA with GTZ during 1998-2002
period. Jaglot, Naltar-III and IV with downgraded capacities have been developed by GB Govt.
Skardu (Satpara dam) 13 MW has been developed by WAPDA and Harpo implementation phase
with WAPDA. Doyian scheme after earthquake in 2005 review for its downgraded capacity upto
230 MW for its possible interconnection with National grid. Phandar 80 MW with detailed design
and Basho 28 MW can be considered for implementation.

For Hunza, Diamer, Shigar, Ghanche and Kharmang districts, no medium size schemes on
tributaries could be identified. To meet power demand of load centres in these valleys,
interconnection of medium size scheme is essential with proposed regional grid. Identified medium
size project may need to be planned to meet future demand of main load centres and for their
interconnection with regional grid.

GB Government conducted feasibility study of Shagarthang 26 MW project on Kachura nullah in

2005. Wapda prepared Feasibility study of Attabad Lake 54 MW on Hunza river. PC-I of

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Shagharthang and Attabad HPPs approved and these are at implementation phase. Hanzel HPP
20 MW on Gilgit river is also at implementation phase by GB Government.

5.2 Identification and Planning of Large Hydropower Projects

Main river stretches of Gilgit, Hunza, Shigar, Astore and Shyok were not considered as the
identified potential schemes were of medium size with high base cost to be developed for optimum
potential for National grid. There is need to identify medium to large hydropower projects on Gilgit,
Astore and Hunza rivers for their possible interconnection with National grid with 220 kV line
separate to transmission lines for mega Hydropower Projects; Diamer Basha and Bunji.

Gilgit and Astore river have abundant flows and steep river gradient where large hydropower
projects can be identified in a range of 100 to 500 MW. Desk study have been made for possible
seven schemes on Gilgit River with aggregate potential of 2500 MW and three schemes on Astore
river with aggregate potential of 1300 MW. The planning of three schemes on lower part of Gilgit
and Astore with optimum capacities would justify for their interconnection with National grid.

Table 1 Identified/Planned Hydropower Projects in Gilgit-Baltistan

POWER GROSS/LIVE
TRIBUTARY/
PROJECT NAME CAPACITY STORAGE STATUS
RIVER
(MW) (MAF)
MEGA & LARGE HYDROPOWER PROJECTS
Diamer Basha 4500 8.1/6.4 Indus Under Const.
Bunji 7,100 RoR Indus DED completed
Yulbo 2,800 RoR Indus DS completed
Tungas 2,200 RoR Indus DS completed
Skardu 1500 3.2/2.2 Indus DS completed
Thorgonar 600 RoR Indus Identified
Sermik 600 RoR Indus Identified
Kharmang 1,100 RoR Indus Identified
Shyok 640 1.2 Shyok FS completed
Lower Astore 300 RoR Astore DS completed
Middle Astore 400 RoR Astore DS completed
Upper Astore 600 RoR Astore DS completed
Gilgit River (7 Schemes) 2,500 RoR Gilgit DS completed
Subtotal 25,230

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The interconnection of medium to large hydropower projects with dedicated transmission line would
not only meet local power demand but also all potential schemes could be developed for their
optimum capacity as surplus energy could be exported to nearby Regional or National grid. Polices
need to be prepared for medium to Large size potential hydropower projects for possible
interconnection to National grid and to meet local power demand of Gigilit Baltistan. Mega potential
projects on Indus river would be constructed as per Generation Expansion plan for National grid
and availability of finances.

5.0 CONCLUSIONS

 Low flows in streams and high power demand in winter do not provide enough power to meet
the growing local demand.

 The revenue collection of electricity bill in Gilgit Baltistan is poor. It needs to be improved to
pay back the hydropower project investment for future projects.

 With the development of medium to large schemes, transmission network from potential sites
to main load centres to regional grid should be constructed to transmit power.

 The identified capacity based on low flows require less investments and may not exploit the
real optimum potential of promising sites available throughout the year.

 Medium size scheme (10 to 50 MW) are to be developed for their optimum capacities for
regional grid and surplus power to National grid.

6.0 WAY FORWARD

 Polices and Stratergy to attract investment for medium to mega size hydropower projects is
to be prepared.

 The identification and planning of potential sites on Gilgit, Astore, Hunza and a number of
major streams is be to carried out for medium to large size projects.

 The large size hydropower plants in the range of 100 to 500 MW are to be planned and
developed for their interconnection with National grid. The surplus energy to National grid
would ensure consumption of generated energy and revenue collection.

 Availability of finances for planning and development would ensure harnessing the renewable
resources of Gilgit Baltistan.

 Provincial department has capacity issues in planning, development and operation of hydel
projects, Wapda has the capacity for planning, development and operation of medium to
large and mega hydropower projects in GB.