Date : Thursday 03 August 2023 Tutorial 3 Conditional and Bayesian Probability Question 1 pe ABD | ditional We sant p (As! B) [> Given tert We clo not Know this prob ability ) but we know p(BlA) ; p(alAz) and p @lAs) The objective ig to take one conditional probabi lity p(Ai|8) aed expand at tn teres oF p(BlAi) is bs. p (AB) = p (Aina) --- p(B) p(BlAi) = p(Ain8) .-- @) PAD > p(A\ia) = plea.) p(Aw) ___ @) p(B) Need I expand po) p(é) = p (4,18) + p(Aane) + p(As 18) p (BIA). pla) + plBIA2): pléa) + p(2iAz) ids)Baye's law for condi tonal probability pala) = p(BIA) - pA») p(BIA,).p(A.) + p(BIAx). plAa) + p(elAs)- ps) Question 2 pials)= _p(ana) - p(a)-p(8) _ pA) pce) pce) p(ald) = (ANB) — 20): p® = p(B) pCa pA) Thus , tor inde perdent events 4 and By B hes no effect on A and A has ne effect on B Question $ Gy | we are in By So we must ether have A or Ay which means that : p(aje) + pals) = 4 => pale) = 1- pala) Alhemabvely , we can prove Same meitheraticallyplAl B) = ane) anc} pl &) = (AN 8) pP(® S, p(AlB)r pCi) = plA%B)+ p(Ana) — pl®) _4 p(B) a) So, plAl®) = | - p(AlB) (ia p(Ananc)= pia). pala) - pci cane) p(a) - p(B1A) p(clane) (And) (ANBNC, PA) P(anB) = p(anBnc) (iy plaganc ND = p(a). p(BIA). p (cl@aa)) . pO! (anenc)) planbocaDne) = plA) p(BlA). p(c}Q6)) . p(o| (AnBnc)) plel (aaBac aD)Question 4 Probability Bat = poker hard of 5 cards contains 2 Kings conditional it contains exactly 4 Queen p2k|1@) = pak N18) pa) Fron, 10 fron +O ¢ cards fo = ‘4 (*) (“h~ ae) (2) Et! number of combidls TO whey thes” 52) 5, p(2k |19) = 0.0292 @ Box co lwo of s ards out ntains 5 White and 1 Red balls : Lal ate drawn without repheerent . i) p( both balle are white) = pu, nae) = p(w). plizlw) = = xb (i) p(a™ ball ts red) = eLR, A Ra) + phi WR = p(R,): P (R,[8,) + p(w): CAND) = 1K = 1tii) p G™ ball is white) =p (W,fW,) + p(®i 12) = pls) plvblw,) + PCR) p(w, 18) Sx 4 + txt = += = Ry n ) ul (iv) p (RilR2 ) = p(RAR) 2 PR) PBI) EE 2 P(R2) p Ro) eS W) pil Ra) = p(wjOR2) _ pl). pli) Bx7 == plR2) p(Ra) io ptwi,[R) = 1 plwil Ra) = 1-p(R,!R2) =l- = = = . Question SG D(a person picked at random i colour blind) =P (Man A abe blind) + p(Weman a ealour blind) = O-53x 0-02 + 0-44 x o-oo O-O1fo7Question 1 Probability Flow Diagram : Ic)= 04 (©) Greless Ph Necident A) os (Ae) =0°2 =) Not pAlc)=0'¢ . ©) Grelees No ace ident (A) O71 PAID =08 piad= ple). plalc) + pCa) - pale) - olK 2 = o-26 = 03% oF p (she wos careless laceident this year) = O-3xO4 =0-462 6-26 X02 _ 0-538 P (che Was not avelegs accident this yeor)= on = 0-26 P (accident next Year | accident this year) ert in one year) x p (careless driver has accid Jacerdent this yer) PC carekes bas accident In One year) x + F (no areless driver p (not careless | aceident this year) = 02924 = O4- 64627 0-2 x 0'S38