PROJECT EVALUATION AND REVIEW TECHNIQUES (P.E.R.T.).

Project evaluation and review techniques (PERT) is particularly suitable to projects

which includes activities whose duration are difficult to estimate.
In cases where the executives or contractors are reluctant to give the single, potentially
binding, time estimate required, it is sometimes useful to adopt the three time estimate of
PERT without carrying out the probability calculations.
The difficulty in defining the contents and activities in a research and development
project leads to the adoption of three estimates,
a- the optimistic time
b- the pessimistic time
m- the most likely time
A statistical approach enables the expected time for an activity and its standard deviation
by the formulae,

Expected time te = (a + 4m + b)/6

And the S.D. = (b-a)/6

The expected time are used in an analysis similar to that used in CPS and this gives us the
earliest expected date and the latest date for each event
The standard deviations are used to calculate the probability of achieving events by pre-
determined scheduled dates.

Where a series of sequential independent activities lie on the critical path of a network the
sum of the individual activity durations will be distributed in approximately normal
fashion regardless of the way in which the individual activity durations are themselves
distributed.
The mean of the distribution of the sum of the activity durations will be the sum of the
means of the individual activities, and its variance will be the sum of the variances. The
variance for a distribution is the square of the standard deviation for a distribution. The
variance for a distribution is the square of the standard deviation for a distribution.
The PERT method of drawing and computing with network analysis was devised to take
account of the difficulty of estimating the durations of activities which cannot be
established conclusively from past experience. In the case of construction work,
excavation, for example, has been carried out under many varied conditions and in all
types of soil. The experience of conducting this operation is, therefore, very broad, and,
in estimating durations for carrying out future work, there is little doubt about the
estimated normal durations if the facts about the excavation conditions are known.

Where it is necessary to estimate the possible duration of such work as research or

development, or work that is being carried out for the first time, then the basis for
estimation is by no means as straight forward as construction work. It is for this type of
work that the PERT statistical approach was developed. Statisticians have relatively
simple means for the determination of uncertainty in quantitative terms and such
methods, are the basis for the PERT approach to . PERT methods take account of the
activity which is likely to have a wide range of durations. An activity in CPM may be
estimated to have a most likely duration of ten days. It may be that, due to the nature of
the operations, the possible range of the duration could be from two to eighteen days or,
for a different operation, it could be from eight to fifteen days. No distinction between
these two types of activity is made in CPM; the duration is stated to be10 days and the
probable uncertainty is not considered at all.
Other than the different approach to estimating the durations of activities, is known as an
event-orientated method. In the PERT method, certain events are selected throughout
the programme to act as milestones for the programme. These are events which are
important in the overall programme and against which progress in general can be
measured. These milestones are labelled with a specific title, for example, completion of
all foundation work. With CPM, the tendency is to refer to the activity and not to the
event. When a number of events or milestones in the PERT network has been established,
these are linked together by arrows in the same way as the CPM network. The
expenditure of resource is assumed to occur on the activity arrow in PERT and in CPM.

The method of estimating durations in the PERT technique uses elementaryprobability

theory to measure the probability of each event being achieved as predicted. In simple
terms, probability theory is a means of putting a figure to such statements as most likely,
very probable, unlikely, etc. The scale against which probability is measured is one that
runs from 0 to 1. At the lower end of the scale we have the situation which is
impossible and 1 represents a situation which is definite. In between are the
various degrees of probability.
One commonly sees frequency distributions of various topics representing the
results of surveys which have been made in specific fields.

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

A standard normal table, also called the unit normal table or Z table,[1] is
a mathematical table for the values of Φ, which are the values of the cumulative
distribution function of the normal distribution. It is used to find
the probability that a statistic is observed below, above, or between values on
the standard normal distribution, and by extension, any normal distribution. Since
probability tables cannot be printed for every normal distribution, as there are an
infinite variety of normal distributions, it is common practice to convert a normal to a standard
normal and then use the standard normal table to find probabilities. [2]