na 2 Phipps wee, Raigp Duo eos x spor en cna ar 0, nd rans Yon Mar wl 2 corm ‘garment hcl edn ft Nore at eget ‘ion povet be Spon tte DONO vie Due othe ara. th rarageer um a kre aye apna wae ce sh ‘ero pag ers tom Pre le et, To wo a ‘ener May 5 2 a wt i sae rs wept une. (Ges CanruntyGusarne Qa Gert County Genin (C2). ‘a odederaredCormunty Orne MECC) Toe sale pots (hieras nthe dro pot rarer alloc eam ety aan Toe an sine f "ieae') [Guaranine Gunes | WED ea, moa tone Invowwcton Ema aust [arent [meme —_|FRUpOr Bons ye femonns ferrets omc | = ering yori lion te ss rane | Sreciicteye | mainaner anne cae os erase Femmes Jase ener [Eee —) Smeravtwns! Sy norman set be a th Terpico[nomeandoneia7 | sr ear ew ey Ds obsess feamen —_|aovec non Fbe scones gumtta ancaonee oom Go pene om ouaomde anaes [reg ER Best" tel acne wi a pole moron ok be stoetoven lowe r 2 free se. fr tae pee manne one i pee Biricaah creek eaten once STATE RR wr Oa BMA = ssévositelnintarongbete mons prin ert ss fmmomten Lenton 1° ature pops magna ay he be es con meg Ost ‘of Acton, Paya ane Probe of canes ‘trv Cours of Aion. fotocng to busasgargoscen, decison ‘himovumesie lo Ssttnse tmp tates ow np oon tern mo aon ee hieedareiaes Setensioseanen ohm te guntha rain ne er rseren co Sener eae: Srom te shane ove ich aera we ae SSrenicomet Tee ona ol er one toque, Ieper acne rte pn poe ser. | ra ag epee itslarertnttrees SRS alent a ame eos a Sate, Sa pe comes ot eh erm cro owes oe oh = forse storseronn nto Lat he Saree Roa | Scanned with CamScanne Scanned with CamScannesense ; teston 2: " Dacnon on ania Operations ns eee 7 Sore een Theelomens ota decison tablecante desorbed lows: aematve courses Aternasves ri. ‘f acton are lncopenden, dcson variable; tas of rate are independent, lel ino eee ee ti ob abe Sempmeee trees f Skaimomernamne eT Sennen [s, anspor proved iow ® * = ‘Sirvctarsot Decision Tables Soa a Sees Te Le Sore rs eam, | ;espoyoeg sng maar ‘tan [eat mous } aoe Se te ‘States of Nature. Presented atthe lp o the tbe are the posse "sales of = ca | a = in eae sf ee ‘ne Ta ws iy Te the ecrany itn, recension ed ove pale eveepne. rea ot feplean seer cards) cireny Suan cu, deca, ob "eo oer utons ta yea Po conolt he eaaon rar. Sop es me ons sweep mde by ne Palgone pesca, Prottities of Cournot Sheol tre Th esas venn ererage nds au paced into oars The season ty tach en ete frei taeorin ve ase The can rP=pobEmES Pats. Te pt orto eoequncs fect aati es ton can Ie'bund at hlosecton oa gen attmate ad te coessog leo tare. ihe gen exemple, fhe fy sara chose alums 88 {iw Pen ald arouree MGCG Wr te NCR, ton he pyar taco wos ts Tho pete shods to resend win pce pio ‘oe ard ean tensor a manny mags oh, Sa quia Scanned with Cam! Lesson 3: rotamer Cty Une ae ek ‘rth ype olden sake ad on esto einer shut he pe Tene rs slgoie we caarty onBe ert ok pata ero) vanes elon stuntman Caaity stunion o ptes prose othe tr baeoe oe vy ol oma Semmtin.hweranepronatetsy hatePrsoreements 15 te nena errant choce trae" e8 ‘layer open bcaisthastohahetpoptundeeCOcsan. Pabst o ease ein aan a aor os estan stun ee fh aso, the deserts read WE ‘chore wn sconapanarg pea ocarerce Atanas oan Scanned with CamScannerwoud be na sped ng ay 78 te rund cee. The cet Hoque ison by ho sz of he sre a faut «pablo (etooine wether tenn ba ore led eh Decision Station under Uncerianty In cana the deen baton unde i te acre cso shin nar sean ean iro ae the kale fate probaly of orsuerc of oss sae orate. Howe the son ‘Seutdret be cone" erases ses frre se town. FO ‘xarp, cme in peda wi nde prade he woxesot mie ie ‘ols oman Lesson 3.4: Sotto Osllon under Rs ‘Temos conn pron sbedesonmatng ide ekaaxpecae avo oaron Ine arent den nate oan ahora wih thetcnes enpactedpmot. The epee poof achat scetadese ‘tena post poy aaa weedy pes ot ecarence pose pers. The sown un tis each ln TSA Tre ow ae ‘nop computor ne pat: z ‘191 Muy ae yh assoc bby Forovaria, stoma Tale 3.4 ‘992 To corule rho islet ye, un ores po, i) = 6020-7020 64x 0504534, a) 85020 15 x020+9x080-40% a) =7x0m8 8.020 2080 242% verse xenon MoHm iF ‘Sate of nare Decision on “Quarantine Operations" anenatves [WOES] 600. | MECS | Emted oa [aso | 05 la Sewamronaoee] ef 7 4 | aa ‘wsayinthe la. Tensporaion | 8] ef ae Penlyees ecing rear aay i temcein |? |e] ap ae procter ‘Eres eira ferent eter J “postin in Dest ater tie simian potion, the ghee rpect ajc Fare sanpepaben strive, oddbosctoned [pe acura On wher hana Fb palem mnie. en {hedeclonmata he sneha inves oman payee evened Ins curacy thom be use apecied arate EMV en, Lesson 36: ‘Solaon' Suton under Uncetty Tho docken ston unr unos he uray oft exile 0 rotates occurence, Te anion Mealy areas whoeer there & om perro fg. COMIN T9 wt sae of 200), he developer ofa "eu roi or Pow oceans. Tare te cei ct choc Tone se {imanagenortpotlam under arcane ei! pobeiles, mint, mina, ‘eet of otis, a rere tee.fa, Snicadenpiyens | 6 [7 testy ne ory fa arperaon| ss owesiton | ferpyee8reeing ashe ool fa arseraton 7) eae proved prey ‘roloyees resin mor an fom befor aes reson nex ot adecn sunton unde uncenahy aecln se probation te oczarerce tt tas of tie ne gen. “Tom Critaron of Equs Probebiis (apes) hts eto, th decison arash a sts fai havo el ‘ebetesin ecu Thn, he ght xp payed To corpus {espace ato otis famed lb pla eect He vee eijeor der beard aor sxfesrbeard asm rebete dead aoe ‘Sito oer ‘aversive [WGCO] Goa | NECA Eipaad 5, Value = Geacederoioweee 6 [7 | € | aT syne teary 7 fa Trenspotaion rover | @ | 8 | 3 | 83 tofew erpioyes| resid ear acry oy | [a Tangporaionpoided | 7 |] 2 | 8 ter ongloyesresng f ear nar rm he fey ‘Ctoron of Pessimism iaxmin otras) “Te desir unda ctr atu hat he worst wl hoo trom oto vat leraves Thanet payin erry aerate Salecied andere ina snow cua able as Wort” From is ew {ehigheet van orhaBostt he Worst selected “he waak asa fis fiona oi vel hor ‘he louee peyote wre consdred nasi he decir aca muck ‘ae nat gnted possib cpus Scanned with CamSc:ess ‘The etoten of oprmie eh oes ot crn of piss Deciion on-usranéna Operations” stro be use aay assures arto everate OvcaMe wou Th, tote choses th ea possbe py Cable “its of are jwaea] 60 | eco | wot] Set eam is ow ne econ maar en ti ab kb deste verses * selon bral ors vn wth ft ath ate Sorprd wees en ses oh. Wort * oaynee taco cootcnt ot Optimim uc Creron) fa, Taporaion as [spe wiz ion mt atl er deena wo re at rode colts penn mx imi Tact be! aortic. trolrees aan ‘ tmnt unladen sad sr wh reamed on 8 earth acy oy | ‘te coe (ute 0 = cortypresmtcare 1 = como ot). Tm fy Tensooraton Tye] ek {et ates ow wth be hohe eid vee (HV) fr maxon ail rotons Tasman iy sn scree masuoTet of seh ‘elec sg (tne WV fron aes on ree tear andi te ace kek flaca im ct ha oping rao 0 We ae wfi)=0507 +(1~0o0)x4 64% cent onsen tenn ieee va) =080%84(4-080;%3=7% ‘Deceon on “Qurtine Opestone” Mig) -000*7+(1-80)x2=0% dunes Dison en “Ouran Operations” iain AE Oe a te ts] ‘ ee Mematnes [NGG] aca |weca] Be a . ane esky nt fos a, Baoaedensorecte |e] 7 ]* | a4 fa repens eee sarnee70 roves tow [aterepomton aed -@ | 8S] | reece eng werenejos } fea earth acnyony_| ‘esau | fa Tarepeaion Tapa yo fasoy on rowed Terpanaen pois] 7 | 8 | 2 | 6 fmooyecs eins torenmyesrosing fearand te rom te __ |. teeranetr tom he fy ‘cory ‘Atv eho ighes haves, tise ash bes arate For rininztor pedis, he loos WY shuts soc,“The Citron of Regret (Savages Creon) ‘Tho ction trogretiabasd on the concept of opparunty cost wih means an opportunity loses neured whenever the deen oveoaks te best alrave ‘coating to Savage, tho delson-nater should make an efoto mize the trgestanipated ee For example, teed on th opporunty les data ow data ae gh fortis értaron) on Table 310, wo can ere te regret and eset the tes aaa In Iwosteps: ‘Stop Ineach cola, each pao is dado tom helagsstpeyotin can. ‘Si0p2 Ft th wort open ach on Then, sae! wet aga ne Decislon on “auarntine Operations” Alternatives a Seed employees o sty int tector a Tanspersion prowdoa to few empoyens| sig ear ° face on fa, Tarsponaton fmpoyeoe ‘ing nat stiri the factory ‘The deckn-Taker Nas 10 croow ateratve a, whlch mimizes the icp regres # wu gtr thal uch ft wou het ble han 3 ‘his een, however based one Brite ntoraton 7-2) @-e-8 [eer] ‘concasion Destlnthonr use standarzstemat farang lvatifomatin ‘opating 2 mineperal protiem Th dana formals etod as Dackion ef “Talo For docons under crn tw pay rts consscuen of chosing an “Meme le ses fo be Inoin. hier undo i, be secon mac ‘ature te beeton rake cles extra of changes ote aus ‘abot. However, the act Qusone Is cut pede. oecsion ut Serany, wich Is Chacienzes oy te aan of pat dla, Seal be ‘eed pve dsasrous su. Review Questions 1 Deus now econ treo isdn meting a manapementusinses 2 Deseo dace aking dr cara ek nd coy. 8. Bilan thf cara lc for dsr uncerunerany, case Probien ‘Theaireralenelantcing ine breeas taepaésbeecoremeNctabons tne not tow ment, Tose a ing) hype) ton) Inde to prover barkupe excess socks mustbe sl rer Ho a the apn choses among the Sarno canna) open 8 popups 1) ast soo oul aso proes: ant a wpe he mrchandoe 1S out Koen Ther ar asia it fm ut a he bans ‘eso wah te toe ure sonic ert. Disitbatlon| Satan Eomomy —] 0 20 Ea you mat cane ih arate wold youooss? Fed tebe! eso prot ng {apace or un pias Craven of peste 8 -oiteron ofp4, Hur tron (a =0.85) 5.Citeronofrret Further Readings + tpasewnvoaeoLcorsescvarice deta s8668 pasion hind comfounalon2016'084171 ips :iwin soncostetcomfterstantebsp ‘soror4ae91690030" tips eeoxore joo orplabevecocument929687 Introduction ‘A dacion re 6 8 graphical epesertaton cof saquenal accor processes ofa rul-porod ‘proces, wich hapans when a decison shoud be Frade based on several the Ftreorretod ure ‘eclone. The advarago of va decon reais that lean prove #omatieg anase of erst “ofa coves of decison. Alone ance ne decision taker can aeady examine ho atarative actors, Presb consocueroes, an eased pays em one dessins Lesson 41: ‘trvctur ofa Decision Tot ‘Tha sucire ofa dection tee has the Tonos elements ee Fgus 41) desi pln, omatnos,etance fina, sts of rate, and payors. Decision Points. soon points sro ypealy smbotzedby ascuae. nis element, te deoson- rakr must celetrormonecfthe aerate cores of acins. Each allrmave is represented by a traren oat for ha rots fhe decisonbot. Te stb net hi staat nc nt aan A ‘Sera tt wt ab cen hana ts mae bash ‘ey rsti apo asso che ‘heres Py etre eer aren nr ita SGlnctoson tte poowe: Knee recat re ccs otost scare de iene eon ootron ory ae s ‘Fecnnespn. epee stare ous pads Smee acolo ae mae thawed pa ecco ‘canes are calm in v8 in pl bea on i x ot woth orp = mae, ants se aoe og Somes Acnecs pars ann ipo on Seok pont are pot xt ca oman mated inst eps conta 0 ae Tm Yo Granny patent ube eee Fe 4 ser Sirota, eect te bits re pe ‘Sp 1. Fara og Heo nen Rs decent crc po, and rans ‘Step 2, Ista n oprepote pba e ratae on he anc. ‘Steg 3. Fray dae payats tcompete to decin Yc, i? , 6, icin tc oe louvres ceesonmeoniamr® =) Lesson 42: Using Decision Tee to Solve Managerial Poblom conemy has pled do te pce of cordominsm unis which ea good teroa estate rvestrant Tus, urease ready or | Tao ‘hemateh rievareoes ‘uw eas as =010 eM 005 Fun =035 rin +030 Eats} eve 45 vet ae ts Pome tert ans, he dacsbn-nalerenditarinam can formulate dession | pricy based ont rove probate In hs case, Be Replican Party ct inetucta ces resale he petro robablis boone didn on ‘hes sera conetusion A deccion to vr ute er analog management pclae wth ipa (98, Ofortimee, one decsion Fas apt mectonseeralgoas. Thus, val ‘eheblil io kari « mutple-goalpreblen ioe sige gal Fer decisions une ik sy Inport or maragaranto goerae tie rect ents pobaites of fe las ature. Say tao lth anal {oo vod e meiplai the aon! inomaion ore fo az he deosion- maker ving he por rbablis an threat resi poster probate,Feview Questions ; 1. Desaibeagecion we, Operating Exoenses: a 2. Disratie ane pint anddaison roi For atomalves A and'A,, depreciation expense, saourty agency leq, end mainienénce expance are eetnated at 1% of bulking ons, PSC0,000, ang 11,000,000, respectively. Messiah Church elders woul ho fo hire a researcher to conduct a study on 3. Discus th steps consructing 8 eosin tee. 4. Demenstata how Bayes'heorom s usod fo ev probation ae the church awh ate Aresearch feof P5000 the cot or survey series The {Messiah Chsian Chr renting veers Sica elowshipsin Psa track record of thie rasearcher enous the frscast lables: Crore caren 0 crn atendoes. The uch asninseanxesoxs Pet two jure, he corer env wi ott ab acco eee MATa 5, if ‘merbasct he cur Thera tio poste ai happan tn wo yar: P. High Werease | 072 | 007 Peden 0.40] 008 6,= mentors noose 700 Plow increase [0.18 | 0.88 | 8, = members near by 1.009 Irsructons oases tis con mos ang th elders an! puto was hel, |. Compute forthe rovised pbb: inde gue cane wh ea sere, peed ca ov 00, gaan ig waa tle Whatis the peebasiy of preictngP,? — = Se “ “ ome [ots foe i A, Pert anal eee 18 RY ad 2. An olactronics manufacturing company is considering replacing their analytical | ee ‘equipment with @ new one. Tha probebilty that the new equipment of being more puto acre b Gen. Thomnagornt Red wongooin ches [Transportation | 720 | 800) 7 | ory ve euonen. ahargene net |perton cords show ta when now eavoent was spe, i eng seria se ears prods te spay no hecrss Ono rand raw eat |e 20 {shoe tus pedld ob ptr bm yang een ones ceeatg «me ae SF ‘&. What would be the revised probabilities i the test was, taken and the Neon ile Aa pli superiony of equipment was predicted’ {toma one “af 1. ite et indicate hat there ecupmodt was infer, what woul be | ‘he eves peobabilion? ‘& Should the test show that equipment is superior, what Would De Is prooabity?