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Solar Energy for Sustainable Heating and Cooling Energy System Planning in Arid
Climates

Younes Noorollahi, Aminabbas Golshanfard, Shiva Ansaripour, Arian Khaledi, Mehdi

Shadi

PII: S0360-5442(20)32528-7
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2020.119421
Reference: EGY 119421

To appear in: Energy

Received Date: 28 May 2020

Revised Date: 16 November 2020
Accepted Date: 21 November 2020

Please cite this article as: Noorollahi Y, Golshanfard A, Ansaripour S, Khaledi A, Shadi M, Solar
Energy for Sustainable Heating and Cooling Energy System Planning in Arid Climates, Energy, https://
doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2020.119421.

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CRediT author statement
Younes Noorollahi: Conceptualization Supervision, Reviewing
Aminabbas Golshanfard: Conceptualization, Methodology, Software Data curation and Validation
Shiva Ansaripour : Software Data curation, Writing- Original draft preparation
Arian Khaledi: Software Data curation, Writing- Original draft preparation
Mehdi Shadi: Software Data curation, Writing- Original draft preparation

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Solar Energy for Sustainable Heating and Cooling Energy System Planning in
Arid Climates

Younes Noorollahi1,2*, Aminabbas Golshanfard1,2, Shiva Ansaripour1,2, Arian Khaledi1, Mehdi Shadi1
1
Department of Renewable Energies Engineering, Faculty of New Sciences and Technologies, University
of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
2
Energy Modelling and Sustainable Energy System (METSAP) Research Lab., Faculty of New Sciences
and Technologies, University of Tehran, Iran
*Corresponding author e-mail address: Noorollahi@ut.ac.ir
Abstract

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Despite the high potential of renewable energy sources in Iran, the current energy system in the country is

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highly dependent on fossil fuel resources because the abundance of oil and gas resources in the country
has made it less feasible to harvest renewable energy. Nowadays, climate change and the increase in
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greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions have led to measures such as determining CO2 taxes that make
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renewable-based energy systems more profitable. Southern Iran, with its arid climate, has a high potential
for the integration of solar energy into the existing energy system in order to maximize its share on the
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energy system; therefore, in this research, five scenarios were defined and applied to model the energy
system for 2025 and 2030. Each scenario was assumed to maximize the solar energy share for the supply
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of heating, cooling, and electricity demand, such as photovoltaics (PV) and concentrated solar power
(CSP). The bottom up EnergyPLAN was applied to model the energy system and scenario computations.
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The results of the scenarios were compared based on annual CO2 emissions, costs, total primary energy
supply, and critical excess electricity production. Based on the results, all scenarios were able to reduce
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the CO2 emissions; however, the PV based scenario had the least costs and utilized 1954 MW of PV
power plant to supply the demand with 599 M€/year costs. Natural gas was largest energy resource of the
system; due to the 17% reduction in the total primary energy supply compared to BAU and Best Scenario
(S5) for 2030, about 20 TWh/year of the natural gas was saved and was ready for export. According to
the Paris Agreement, the permissible amount of CO2 emissions for this province in 2030 is about 9.76 Mt,
which is 5.59 Mt in Best Scenario (S5). Furthermore, sensitivity analysis was run for the costs of the
business as usual and PV based scenarios under different natural gas prices and emissions tax rates from
0.025 to 1.92 €/Gj and 4 to 20 €/kg of CO2, respectively. According to the findings, when the natural gas
price increased to 0.521 €/Gj, the renewable-based plans became feasible, and increasing the CO2 tax
caused the cost differences to rise.

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Keywords: EnergyPLAN; Support Vector Machine; Energy Systems Modelling; CSP; PV; Renewable
Energy

1. Introduction
The increasing dependency on energy imports, the rise in greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions, and high
and unstable energy prices are among the major issues faced by today’s world. One of the most
encouraging approaches to subtracting the global dependence on energy imports is the usage of renewable
energy sources (RES) which helps diversify energy resources and reduce GHG emissions [1][2]. The
most critical challenges of the energy sector are inappropriate primary energy resources segmentation
with a considerable share of coal , strong dependence on fossil fuel imports, poor planning of the energy

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systems, and inefficient energy generation and consumption [3].

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Considering energy consumption as a key factor of economic growth and sustainable development, it is
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essential to see a paradigm shift in which RES is not only an environmental necessity but also a policy
for security, development, and innovation [2][4]. Within this context, reduced dependency on fossil fuels
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and optimized electricity systems enable us to analyze scenarios of future electricity generation through
renewable systems. These renewable systems are expected to contribute to sustainable development and
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are used in models to calculate the electricity generation costs, CO2 emissions, and externalities [5][6].
Franzen et al. [7] demonstrated that the renewable energy system optimized up to 100% RE could
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generate substantial savings such as eliminating the need for diesel generators on the islands, ensuring
grid stability, and achieving environmental as well as economic aims.
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The strategic planning of the national energy plan until 2020 has been improved with a focus on
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sustainable development based on the participatory approach and the integrated but balanced behavior of
different sectors. This strategy necessitates the participation of various stakeholders in the expression of
development policies, plans, and projects which can be comprehensively described in political and legal
frameworks, energy and public issues, environment, small and medium enterprises, industry, and rural
developing areas [8]. Nowadays, the most technological and socio-political challenges within the world’s
energy sector are the safety of supply and GHG emissions caused by energy generation and consumption
[9]. The utilization of renewable energy sources is a promising solution to reducing both energy imports
and GHG emissions. Besides, increase in employment results in the potential development of rural
economies and additional environmental benefits [10]. In order to effectively use RES, the adaptability of
the power system should be enhanced through the use of more dispatchable power plants, more
interconnection among power systems, energy storage, and demand-side measures [11]. Energy storage is

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used to transfer excess energy from the off-peak time to peak demand periods. However, due to the high
investment cost of storage systems, the overall cost of applying RES increases [10][4].

In this connection, comprehensive research has been conducted to achieve a sustainable energy system.
Over the recent years, RES has become more profitable (specifically in costs); nonetheless, a 100%
renewable system has not become sufficiently affordable yet [12]. A 32% share of non-hydro RE for
electricity generation was shown by Aryanpur et al. [13] for an energy planning in Iran. Wang et al. [14]
compared a 100% renewable-based system, including wind turbines (WTs) and PV with a CSP combined
system. CSP showed more flexibility in scheduling; it reduced the energy storage systems investment and
improved the capacity factor of power generation instrument. As concerns the reduction policies of CO2

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emissions, four scenarios, including reference scenario (REF), low-carbon moderate scenario (LCM),
low-carbon advanced scenario (LCA), and green optimistic scenario (GO) during 2010-2040 were

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compared by Emodi et al. [15]. Noorollahi et al. [16] compared six renewable scenarios for Ebino, in
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Japan, using EnergyPLAN to diversify the electricity supply. Via applying the best scenario, the RE share
increased from 10% in 2010 to 54.2% in 2020. Hu et al. [17] analyzed four scenarios, namely business as
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usual (BAU), efficient improvement (EI), energy structure upgrade (ESU), and peak scenario (PS) during
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2015-2030. In each scenario, the trend of economic development, change in the industrial basement, and
population growth were consistent. Kiwan et al. [18] utilized EnergyPLAN, LEAP, and SAM to supply
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the electricity demand of 2050 using BAU, government plan 2025, equal shares, and 100% RES for
2050. Independence from imports and zero CO2 emissions were among the other results. Connecting
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buildings to district heating substantially reduced the fuel demand, CO2 emissions, and costs [19].
Connolly et al. [20] presented a RE scenario for the European Union. They reported the consumption of a
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sustainable amount of bioenergy, 80% penetration of electric vehicle (EV), 10-15% increase in costs
compared with BAU for 2050, local investments instead of imported fuels, creation of 10 million jobs,
and zero CO2 emissions. A real concern in Pakistan is the large amounts of primary energy import, so
Sheikh proposed a model for solving this problem [21], and remote places became electrified.
In Bressanone, Italy, two scenarios for storage were compared by Prina and Moser [22]. They found
that 44% and 53% of the demand were supplied by hydrogen and pumped-hydro storage, respectively.
Additionally, CO2 emissions was reduced by approximately 20%. A case study was conducted in
Macedonia to achieve 100% RES in 2050; it was shown that the total primary energy supply (TPES)
decreased by 51% [1]. Child et al. [7] developed a sustainable energy system for the Åland Islands with a
high penetration of EV by 2030. A transport sector with a high ratio of electrical cars reduced the
annualized energy system costs, possibly promoting employment and international partnerships. Using
numerous renewable technologies and improving energy efficiency are considered as important
approaches to achieving zero carbon systems [23]. Furthermore, the security of energy supply increased

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by the increase in the share of RE technologies to 30% [24]. Fernandes et al. [5] designed four scenarios
for 100% RES in Portugal with a high penetration of sources such as wind and hydropower. In addition, it
was reminded that a 100% renewable system requires a powerful storage.

In Iran, Ghorbani et al. [25] introduced a 100% renewable energy system transition plan for 2050; they
also calculated the cost-optimized share of RE resources and storage technologies, concluding that PV
installation with battery storage was the most optimal scenario. To investigate the required power
capacity to fulfil the electricity demand by 2050, [26] simulated an hourly resolved model over a 35-year
period with five-year time steps. Their objective was to define a 100% RE-based system in Iran through
applying wind and solar energies and storage by 2030. The renewable energy, storage technologies, and

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the least-cost energy supply resulted in the optimization of the model’s purpose. Additionally, in Iran’s
2025 vision, four scenarios were proposed and discussed according to the energy consumption and RE

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generation combination based on solar, wind, and geothermal energies [27]. The feasibility of solar
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energy utilization in different areas of Iran was calculated by Alamdari et al. [28]. For this purpose,
annual horizontal solar radiation of 63 stations was calculated. Table 1 depicts the research work in this
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field and summarizes the foregoing investigation.
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Several methods have been widely utilized in predictive analysis studies such as time series, artificial
neural network (ANN), extreme learning machine (ELM), and support vector regression (SVR). A hybrid
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method based on ELM was applied by Wen-jing Niu et al. [29] to predict the annual runoff time of three
massive hydropower reservoirs in China. Unwell-tuned parameters may reduce the performance of ELM
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algorithm. As a result, a class-based evolutionary ELM was used in [30] to avoid falling into local
optimal solutions. Of note, a comparative study was conducted in [31] to predict medium- and long-term
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coal demand in China by considering gross domestic product (GDP), total population, industrial structure,
and coal price as input parameters. SVR has been applied in many energy demand forecasting studies
[32–37] as well as solar and wind energy production [38–40]. Zhongfu Tan et al. [32] applied SVR to
predict heating, cooling, and electricity demand in an industrial park. SVR method was selected to
predict the electricity demand of a hotel ’building in [33]; a variety of kernel functions were calculated to
optimize the prediction and reach R2 = 0.94 with a radial basis function (RBF) kernel function. Moreover,
in [34], support vector machines were shown to be superior to the genetic algorithm (GA) due to the
unstable optimization results of GA that occur in locally-optimized solutions. Also, the SVM algorithm
was considered more operational for small sample predictions and good practicability that can overcome
the limitations of the local optimal solutions. A load predictive analysis of a hybrid energy system was
conducted using SVR with RBF kernel function and found the optimized values for the estimation
parameters [41]. Artificial neural network (ANN) and SVR resulted in the most accurate algorithms of

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forecasting in a review conducted by Yanfeng Liu et al. [38]. Alireza Zendehboudi et al. [39] reviewed
the SVM method’s role in forecasting wind and solar energy. This modeling method has also been
presented as a reliable, fast, and simple-to-use approach, which is better than other models of prediction
in this field.

In southern Iran (Hormozgan province), energy supply with a high potential of solar energy, five
scenarios, and four objective functions were defined and analyzed. SVR algorithm was applied to forecast
the energy demand. Several energy planning studies have been done in general and mostly at the national
level with not enough attention to the important challenges of the current energy systems. To derive an
appropriate model for this research gap, the energy system study was performed on a smaller scale with

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more details. In oil-rich countries, especially in the Middle East with a remarkable solar source, the trends
towards renewable energy systems have not been seriously studied. Due to the oil-based energy systems,

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the transition to 100% renewable strategies seems to be unreachable and economically unprofitable. Due
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to the lack of infrastructure, these plans have not been considered by policymakers. Thus, gradual
strategies may lead to 100% renewable in the long run. A new approach considered in this paper was the
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utilization of the climate aspect to define applicable strategies. In areas with low industrial energy
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consumption, the main sector of energy consumption is the residential sector, contributing to the use of
RE technologies that supply this sector. Furthermore, climate conditions affect the application of the
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leading RE sources. Regarding the climate of southern Iran (Hormozgan province), the highest share of
residential energy consumption is for the cooling demand; therefore, using solar thermal technology is an
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appropriate alternative to obtaining a sustainable heating and cooling energy system for Hormozgan and
other areas with an arid climate. The present study aimed to determine a model for a proper energy
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planning for an arid climate region to obtain economic and environmental objectives. This planning is
based on climate features and renewable sources.

The paper is structured as follows: Section 2 explains the geographical features of Hormozgan province in
southern Iran. Sections 3 and 4 discuss the current energy system of Hormozgan province; for forecasting
energy, linear support vector regression (LSVR) was applied to predict each energy sector demand up to
2030. In Section 5, the scenarios were defined and represented in details. Section 6 presents information
on the costs related to the energy system. Section 7 describes the objective functions that include
environmental, technical, and economic aspects. Section 08 presents the results of modeling and gives the
future energy system for Hormozgan province. Sensitivity analysis and discussion of the results are
included in Section 9. Section 10 concludes the findings of the research.

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1 Table 1: Literature review in energy system modelling
Energy Sectors Study Case Renewable Types Models Objective Functions Ref
Electricity, Heating, Minimization of investment, Operational cost, CO2
A 19-bus isolated microgrid All types HMM1 [42]
Cooling emissions
Electricity Brazil All types EnergyPLAN Discuss Risk, Cost, CO2 emissions [12]
Electricity Iran All types MESSAGE Technology, Economic, Environmental, Social [13]
Scenario
Electricity Lower Saxony, Germany Off\Onshore WT, PV Technology, Economic, Environmental, Social [43]
Planning (SP)
Electricity An isolated Island CSP, WT, storage-RO - Cost minimization [14]
Electricity Heating Hydropower, Biomass, WT, GHG emissions reduction, Cost minimization,
Nigeria LEAP [15]
Transport Solar thermal, PV Renewable maximization
WT Primary fuel consumption, CO2 emissions, Excess power
Electricity Ebino, Japan EnergyPLAN [16]
PV generation, Share of RER
Electricity, Heating
Shenzhen, China PV LEAP CO2 emissions reduction, Cost minimization [17]
Cooling, Transport

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Electricity, Heating, PV, WT, Solar collectors, EnergyPLAN, GHG emissions reduction, Cost minimization,

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Favignana Island, Italy [44]
Transport Biomass HOMER Renewable maximization
EnergyPLAN, Techno-Economic feasibility, Security of supply, CO2
Electricity Jordan PV, WT, CSP [18]

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LEAP emissions reduction
Fuel demand reduction, CO2 emissions reduction, Cost
Heating Denmark - EnergyPLAN [19]

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minimization
Electricity, Heating, Off\Onshore WT, PV, Primary energy reduction, CO2 emissions reduction, Total
Europe EnergyPLAN [20]

Pr
Cooling, Transport Biomass, H2 storage annual socio-economic cost minimization
Electricity Pakistan All types -- Increasing RES share, Energy imports reduction [21]
EnergyPLAN- GHG emissions reduction, Cost minimization,
Electricity China All types [45]

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LEAP Renewable maximization
Electricity Bressanone, Italy PV, Storage EnergyPLAN Renewable integration, CO2 and cost reduction [22]

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Maximize usage of wind power, Minimize imports of
Electricity Heating Macedonia All types EnergyPLAN [1]
electricity, Reduction of energy consumption
Electricity Heating Aland Islands, Finland
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Off\Onshore WT, On roof
EnergyPLAN
Cost minimization, High participation in V2G, Min. gas
[46]
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/Ground-mounted PV storage, Minimize capacity of offshore WT
PV Cost minimization, High capacity of electric vehicle
Electricity Heating Aland Islands, Finland EnergyPLAN [7]
Off\Onshore WT battery storage, Minimize need for seasonal storage
Minimize PES, CO2 emissions reduction
Electricity Heating Southeast Europe All types EnergyPLAN [24]
CEEP, Reduction of total annual cost
Electricity Portugal WT, Biomass, PV, Waves EnergyPLAN CO2 emissions reduction, Cost minimization, CEEP [5]
Hourly resolved
Electricity Iran All types, storage Cost minimization, Optimize mix of RE plants [25]
model
Linear
Electricity Iran PV, WT, storage Optimal sets of RE technologies, Cost minimization [26]
optimization
Scenario
Electricity Iran All types Energy consumption, RE production [27]
Planning (SP)

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Heuristic Moment Matching

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2 2. The Study Area
3 The study area (Hormozgan province) is located south of Iran at 25 degrees north latitude and 52 degrees
4 east longitude. Due to its closeness to the equator and being a port area, it has a warm and humid climate.

5 Cooling degree days (CDD) cover most of the days in a year of warm and humid climate. As a result,
6 cooling energy demand is usually a significant issue, which can be solved by renewable energies, solar
7 energy in particular. The solar radiation is more directional as it approaches the equator, so the annual
8 mean temperature of Hormozgan province is 26.7℃ [47], indicating its high potential for solar energy
9 harvesting. Several other factors can prove the suitability of an area for installing solar equipment such as

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10 global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI). In Iran, areas with the most
11 potential [2] were chosen with at least 1700 kWh/m2/year and 1350 kWh/m2/year annual average solar

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12 radiation for PV and CSP, respectively [2].

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Since Iran is a vast country, it has different climates. Almost all the southern regions have a warm and
14 humid climate; the central regions have a warm and dry climate while the northern areas are cold and
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15 humid. In this regard, a study of solar energy potential encompassing all regions can be complicated and
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16 requires a lot of data, which causes ambiguity; thus, the present work focuses on the southern region.
17 According to the reports and potential assessments made by a renewable energy and energy efficiency
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18 organization (SATBA) [48], other renewable technologies, especially WTs, do not have noted potential in
19 southern Iran and are much less than solar energy. Figure 1 illustrates the annual DNI and GHI of
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20 Hormozgan province extracted from SOLARGIS [49]. It shows that most places in this province have a
21 high potential for solar energy regarding both CSP and PV.
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23 Figure 1. Annual DNI (A) and annual GHI (B) of Hormozgan province, SOLARGIS [49]

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25 3. Methodology
26 3.1. Energy System Modeling
27 Energy modeling is employed to predict energy supply and demand by considering the effective factors.
28 Through performing such studies, energy planning can be implemented for at a future time [16]. To
29 identify economic and environmental patterns, the modeling tool is used to emphasize fossil fuel
30 minimization, renewable energy maximization, and reduction in global warming effects [16, 50]. In this
31 paper, the EnergyPLAN model was used as the main tool for energy system modeling in the Hormozgan
32 province, southern Iran. The primary purpose of the model is to collaborate on the design of energy
33 system planning based on technical and economic analysis based on various national energy systems and
34 their investments [51]. The EnergyPLAN is a bottom-up model including electricity and heat supplies as
35 well as the demand for transport, industrial, and individual sectors [52]. Besides, EnergyPLAN is
36 considered as a user-friendly tool among the 17 studied tools in [53] for urban energy planning. The input
37 of the energy system comprises the following:

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38 − Energy production units and resources
39 − Energy demands
40 − Balancing and storage
41 − Costs
42 General inputs include energy station capacities, fuel, and energy consumption in all sectors, the capacity
43 of renewable plants, fuel, and CO2 costs, operation and investment cost of energy stations, and different
44 types of equipment for power regulation. Outputs are total fuel consumption, electricity import/export,
45 CO2 emissions, and the total annual cost of the energy system [52]. Likewise, the model can be applied
46 for technical analysis, feasibility studies, and market exchange analysis. Technical analysis is used for

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47 large and complicated energy systems at different levels national, local, or regional with various technical
48 features. Concerning market exchange analysis, each plant is optimized according to the business’s

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49 economic profits, including taxes and CO2 emissions costs [51].

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As presented in Section 2, Hormozgan is a tropical city, so most of its energy consumption (64.3%) is
related to the residential sector that shown in Figure 2. Also, the cooling demand, satisfied by electric
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chillers (COP = 2), constitutes a major portion of the residential energy. Different power plants supply the
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required power in this area (Table 2). However, in some periods of the year, Hormozgan province is
forced to import electricity. Figure 3 represents the energy system in Hormozgan in 2018. In the study
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area, the heating sector mostly included residential, public, and commercial sectors. The heating energy
demand is mainly supplied by liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), mazut, diesel, kerosene, and natural gas.
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The amount of supplied fuel in the heating sector is shown in

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Table 3. Because of the climate conditions, the heating sector is inconsequential, which was briefly
examined in this study; we mainly concentrated on electricity, especially in the cooling sectors. About
29.3% of the electricity is consumed for cooling. Also, Figure 4 depicts the share of each resource and
demand for the BAU scenario. Natural gas is the most widely used fuel in the resource section. The
interesting point in the consumption section is the high losses in the energy system.

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Figure 2. Electricity consumption in different sectors for Hormozgan province

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Table 2. Power plant characteristics in the study area

Capacity
Name Type Efficiency Fuel
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(MW)
Khalij Fars Gas Turbine 33.1 Natural gas & Diesel 990
Aisin Gas Turbine 31.3 Natural gas & Diesel 648

Bandar Abbas Steam Turbine 34.6 Natural gas, Diesel & Mazut 1280
Bandar Abbas Gas Turbine 26.2 Natural gas 50

Table 3. The fuel types in the heating supply

Natural Gas Diesel Mazut LPG Kerosene

(Mm3) (1000lit) (1000lit) (tone) (1000lit)
Residential 3.5 2058 0 179484 10813

Public and commercial 1.5 88938 112516 0 0

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Figure 3. BAU 2018 flow diagram for Hormozgan province (energy unit: TWh)
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Resource segmentation Consumption segmentation

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Electricity
losses, 3%
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Ngas,
78% Conversio
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Electricity,
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56%
17%

Cooling,
14% Heating,
LPG, 7%
9%

Electricity
Mazut,
Diesel, Import,
6% Kerosene,
5% 3%
1%

Figure 4. The share of resources and consumption sections in the energy system (BAU Scenario)

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3.2. Energy Demand Forecasting
For demand forecasting, the Linear Support Vector Machine (SVM) was used in this research. Introduced
by Vapnik (1990’s), SVM is a machine learning method that is widely applied in model construction [54].
The two main applications of this method are classification and regression. The support vector regression
(SVR) can rank the selected indexes base on their effect on the main trend with the given data, n-
dimensional variables, and one target variable {( , ), ( , ), . . . , ( , )} where ∈ , ∈

By considering a linear relationship between = , ,…, and y, LSVR represents the model as:

( ,…, , )= = . + (1)

As shown in Figure 5, an interval with center f is defined. Dash lines represent the interval boundary with

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ε width set by the user. ξ defines the distance between predicted the points that are placed outside of

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bound and the boundary. C is known as a penalty factor to create a comparison between function
performance and error training determined by a user. Eq. 1, 2 express the training prosses in SVR with the
mathematical model.
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1 n
w + C∑(ξi* + ξi )
2
minimize (2)
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2 i =1

 y − ( w. x ) − b ≤ ε + ξ * 
 i 
s.t  i i
 (3)
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 ( w.xi ) + b − yi ≤ ε + ξ i 
 
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Figure 5. The parameters of the SVR method [40]

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The kernel function in linear SVM method solution is used to improve the generalization performance of
the regression function. The linear kernel function is defined in Eq. 4:

( , )= (4)

Ultimately, by applying the kernel function, the solution can be found by solving:

= (! !)" ! # (5)

where ! = , ,…, ,# = , ,…, , is the calculated matrix of the coefficients %, & is the
output of the estimated function, and b is an intercept. Figure 6 shows the construction of the SVM
prediction model. Appropriate indexes with a high correlation can lead to more accurate results.

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Furthermore, the performance of machine learning algorithms is usually assessed by k-fold cross-
validation (CV) or holdout-validation. Holdout-test is mostly recommended for large datasets so in this

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research, k-fold cross-validation is applied. k-fold validation protects against overfitting by portioning the
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dataset into folds and estimating the accuracy of each fold. As a result, the increase in folds can lead to
more valid outputs.
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Figure 6. flowchart of prediction model by applying support vector regression

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 4. Electricity, Heating and Cooling Demand
Electricity consumption depends on factors such as population [55,56], gross domestic product (GDP)
[55–58], electricity price [56,58], and technological growth [56]. In this article, the population and GDP
of Hormozgan province were considered to evaluate the electricity consumption by the LSVR method. To
this end, the population and GDP data were obtained from the Statistical Yearbook of Iran [59]; firstly,
they had to be forecasted by regression up to the year 2030. By applying the LSVR method, the
forecasted values for electricity consumption were calculated. Given the importance of the cooling sector,
the electricity consumed for the cooling demand was separated from the total electricity demand. Figure 7
shows the results of this 10-fold estimation with R2 = 0.98.

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Mean temperature and degree days are the most important parameters influencing the heating/cooling
demand [60–62]. It is worth mentioning that by changing in the number of households, the energy

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demand will be changed, which can be an essential for the estimation of their future demand. According

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to these assumptions and the mean air temperature and the number of households, heating and cooling
were forecasted up to 2030 by LSVR operator. The number of households and the mean historical
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temperature data were derived from the Statistical Yearbook of Hormozgan province [63] and Iran's
Meteorological Organization [64], respectively. The results of the 10-fold LSVR regression show an R-
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squared equal to 0.92 for heating and 0.95 for cooling. Figure 8 illustrates the heating and cooling demand
from 1995 and the results of LSVR forecasts.
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Electricity demand in Hormozgan

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(TWh)

4
Forecast
Real Data
2

0
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032

Figure 7. Electricity demand trend and forecast for Hormozgan province

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Forecasted heating demand
8
Forecasted cooling demand
Heating and cooling demand for

7 Realdata heating demand

Realdata cooling demand
Hormozgan (TWh)

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1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

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Figure 8. Cooling and Heating demand forecast up to 2030
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5. Scenario Development
In this research, the BAU scenario was considered as a benchmark for developing other alternative
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scenarios. Using EnergyPLAN, by predicting the energy consumption up to 2030, 11 scenarios were
implemented based on four objective functions: total primary energy consumption, CO2 emissions, total
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annual cost, and critical excess electricity production (CEEP). In this research, all scenarios were run for
two time horizons, namely 2025 and 2030. The variables of this research included the amount of fossil
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fuels, PV output, CSP output, storage capacity, and solar thermal output. Being a case study, the input
data of the modeling scenarios were limited to energy demand in Hormozgan province. The limited
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power of transmission lines also affected the energy exports and imports. Also, this planning faced
environmental limitations stemming from the Paris Agreement. Based on this limitation, CO2 emissions
for 2030 could not increase by more than 4% compared to 2030 with the current trend of CO2 emissions.
The scenarios are as follows:

S1: Business as usual (BAU)

S2: Heating and cooling based on solar thermal (LOWST1)
S3: Heating and cooling based on solar thermal and electricity based on concentrated solar power
(HIGHST2)

1
LOWST: Low use of solar thermal
2
HIGHST: High use of solar thermal

15
 S4: Heating and cooling based on solar thermal and electricity based on concentrated solar power in
the company of the storage (HIGHST&Storage)
S5: Heating and cooling based on solar thermal and electricity based on photovoltaics
(LOWST&PV). Error! Not a valid bookmark self-reference. presents the components of all
scenarios.
Table 4. The components of the scenarios

Electricity (except cooling) Cooling Heating

Scenario Fossil Fossil Solar Fossil Solar
CSP PV Storage Storage Storage
fuel fuel Thermal fuel Thermal
S1 × × × × × × ×

of
S2 × × ×
S3 × ×

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S4 ×
S5 × × -p
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2025 and 2030 have different shares of renewable power, 25% and 50% of the total energy in each sector,
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respectively. Due to the low price of fossil fuel in oil-rich countries, they utilize almost 100% fossil fuel
energy system. As a result, to change their energy systems and move towards a renewable energy, they
should add renewable sources gradually. BAU scenario expressed Hormozgan energy system with the
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ordinary trend for each year.

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Table 5 gives an overview of the secondary energy related to heating, cooling, and electricity demand for
2018, 2025, and 2030.

As stated in Section 2, because of the high solar potential in this region, the solar source was planned to
use in the energy system. PV and CSP are the two main solar technologies for supplying the electricity
demand and the solar thermal is the main source of heating and cooling in a given energy system. Heating
and cooling were planned to be supplied by district heating networks. In this way, to supply the cooling
demand, some of the buildings were planned to use absorption chiller (with COP = 0.7) individually. The
flow diagram of the designed energy system and its steps and parameters are demonstrated in Figure 9.

16
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-p
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Figure 9. Project implementation process

17
 Table 5. Overview of heating, cooling, and electricity (secondary energy)

Total Load (TWh)

Year Electricity Heating Cooling
2018 6.5 3.33 5.4
2025 8.46 3.67 6.69
2030 9.8 4.04 8.25

6. Energy System Cost

The electricity generation costs include investment, operation, and maintenance (O&M) along with the
fuel prices (Error! Not a valid bookmark self-reference. and Table 7). Furthermore, the CO2 emissions

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tax can decrease the damages caused by climate change and achieve sustainable energy systems.
Although it varies throughout the world and restrictions are set for most countries in the Paris Agreement,

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no CO2 tax and environmental externalities have been specified for the Iranian energy system. Baneshi
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and Hadianfard [65] assumed 7 euros per tons of CO2 as tax, which was applied in this study. Also, the
variable costs included the emissions tax and the fuel cost. In terms of heating energy supply costs, the
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difference between the O&M costs of solar thermal and individual boilers had the most significant effect
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on the total costs.

Table 6. The investment, lifetime and O&M costs [66]

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Investment
Lifetime (year) O&M (% of Inv.) Efficiency
Producer Type (MEuro/unit)
2018 2030* 2018 2030* 2018 2030*
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Large Power Plants

0.74 0.7 25 25 3.32 3.3 33
(MW)
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Large PV (MW) 0.83 0.69 35 40 1.31 1.28 20

CSP (MW) 4.5 3.8 30 30 4 4 50
Solar Thermal
386 307 30 30 0.13 0.15 80
(TWh/year)
Heat Storage Solar
0.5 0.5 20 20 0.7 0.7 -
(GWh)
Individual Boilers
4.5 4.3 20 20 5.38 5.42 67
(Household)
*: The costs change linearly during 2018-2030

Table 7. The fuel costs [67]

Fuel Oil Natural Gas

Price 9.64 (€/Gj) or (63 $/barrel) 0.025 (€/Gj) or (0.2 $/m3)

18
 7. Objective Functions
To propose an appropriate model for the study area, it was necessary to set the criteria based on macro
planning at global, national, and regional levels and define the objective functions based on them. In this
study, four objectives were followed and analyzed carefully. The objective functions of this research were
annual CO2 emissions (in million tons), total primary energy supply (TPES) (TWh/year), including oil
and natural gas consumption, critical excess electricity production (CEEP) (TWh/year), which is the
excess electricity that can be sold in external electricity markets and total annual costs (MEuro). Also, the
independency of energy imports was further planned for all scenarios. Of note, CO2 was regarded as the
main greenhouse gas and the CO2 emissions factor for different fuels is shown in Table 8. In Eq. 6 and 7,
the objective functions represented in the mathematic model that are calculated in EnergyPlan [68]. In

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these equations, k is the number of components, Ck is the component capacity, Pun , k is the unit

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investment cost of the component, i is the interest rate (considered 1 in this study), n is the lifetime of the

-p
component, Po & m , k is the percentage of investment cost that presents O&M costs, Voil and Pun ,oil are the

volume and unit price of oil fuel, VNgas and Pun , Ngas are volume and unit price of natural gas, and VCO2 is
re
CO2 volume.
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l i
Minimize TAC = ∑[Ck .Pun,k . + Ck .Pun,k .Po&m,k ] + Voil .Pun,oil + VNgas .Pun, Ngas + taxCO2 .VCO2 (6)
k =1 (1 − (1 + i)−n )
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Maximize CEEP (7)

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Table 8. CO2 emissions for the fuels [69]

Fuel Oil Natural Gas

CO2 Emissions (kg/Gj) 75.1 57.9

8. Simulation Results
Figure 10 shows the flow diagram of the energy carriers for 2030 in the BAU energy system of
Hormozgan province. The results of the four objective functions are shown in Figure 11 to Figure 14.
Analysis of TPES indicated that scenarios including CSP (S3 and S4) consumed lower fuels. Natural gas
was the system's largest resource of energy; due to the 22% reduction in total primary energy supply
compared to BAU and S4, about 22.4 TWh/year of the natural gas was saved. Given the possibility of
exporting this saved fuel, a considerable revenue was obtained from it. The CO2 emissions chart showed

19
that these scenarios reduced CO2 emissions and the fourth scenario (S4) had the least CO2 emissions.
According to the Paris Agreement, the permissible amount of CO2 emissions for this province in 2030 is
about 9.76 Mt (4% less than BAU in 2030), which is 5.09 Mt in S4. It is worth mentioning that due to the
low price of fossil fuel in the Middle East, BAU is the most cost-effective scenario; however, critical
excess electricity production can compensate certain portions of the costs in renewable-based plans.
CEEP is only generated in HIGHST and LOWST&PV scenarios, rendering them more feasible.
Meanwhile, HIGHST was not a reasonable scenario as the aspect of the total annual cost. CSP based
scenarios had the lowest TPES and CO2 emissions, but they were not cost-effective due to the high
investment and O&M cost (Figure 15). LOWST&PV can be interpreted as the best scenario based on the
total cost (considering the total annual cost and CEEP) whereas the environmental issue was not satisfied

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as much as CSP based scenarios.

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High conversion losses are one of the causes of energy loss in conventional power plants, which
decreased by about 10% in S5. Besides, CO2 emissions tax and cost of TPES can be interpreted as a
-p
fraction of the total cost; therefore, the total costs were the more weighted criteria in choosing the best
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scenario. Regarding the total cost and CEEP results, LOWST&PV was considered as the best scenario for
2030. Furthermore, almost 1954 MW of the PV power plant was needed to supply the demand. In other
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words, this scenario expressed an integrated energy system which flow diagram is shown in Figure 16.
According to the results, reforming of the energy system and promoting it to the integrated energy system,
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the losses and fossil fuel consumption are decreased as represented in Figure 17.
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Jo

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 Figure 10. BAU 2030 flow diagram for Hormozgan province (energy unit: TWh)

BAU
11
LOWST
HIGHST
HIGHST&Storage
CO2 Emission (Mt/year)

LOWST&PV
9

of
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5

3
-p
re
2018 2025 2030

Year
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Figure 11. Comparison of CO2 emissions

na

50
ur

BAU
LOWST
45 HIGHST
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HIGHST&Storage
LOWST&PV
TPES (TWh/year)

40

35

30

25

20
2018 2025 2030

Year

Figure 12. Comparison of total primary energy supply

21
 1000

BAU
900 LOWST
HIGHST
HIGHST&Storage
800 LOWST&PV
Costs (MEuro/year)

700

600

of
500

ro
400

300
2018
-p 2025 2030
re
Year
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Figure 13. Comparison of total annual cost

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1.0

BAU
ur

LOW ST
0.8 HIGHST
HIGHST&Storage
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LOW ST&PV
CEEP (TWh/year)

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0
2018 2025 2030

Year

Figure 14. Comparison of critical excess electricity production

22
 1000

Variable HIGHST
O. & M.
800 Investment

HIGHST&Storage
Costs (MEuro/year)

LOW ST&PV
600 BAU LOWST

400

of
ro
200

0
-p 2030
re
Year
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Figure 15. Details of the cost for 2030 by all scenarios

na
ur
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Figure 16. The energy flow diagram of the best scenario (LOWST&PV) for 2030 (energy unit: TWh)

23
 Resource segmentation Consumption segmentation

Electricity
Losses, 4%
Ngas, Conversion
57% Losses,
Cooling,
46%
18%
Solar
Thermal,
21% Electricity, Heating,
PV, 11% 22% 9%

Mazut,

of
2% Electricity
Export, 2%
Diesel,

ro
4%
Kerosene, LPG, 4%
0%

-p
Figure 17. The share of resources and consumption sections in the energy system (Best Scenario)
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9. Sensitivity Analysis and Discussion

Due to the low price of fossil fuels in the Middle-Eastern countries, a sensitivity analysis of the natural
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gas price range for 2030 was conducted in Figure 18. In this analysis, the total costs of the BAU and the
best scenario (LOWST&PV) under the Middle East to global price (0.025-1.92 €/Gj) was compared in
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order to 1) find the price of natural gas that makes the selected scenario costly feasible and 2) provide an
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overview of the effect of TPES price on the total costs. As shown in Figure 18, the intersection point of
the scenarios was 0.521 €/Gj (4.17 $/m3), meaning that the price of natural gas has to be 20 times
higher to make the application of renewable power plants more feasible. The radial axis represents the
total costs and the angular axis represents the natural gas price. Furthermore, the variable costs of the
BAU and the best scenario (LOWST&PV) under different emissions taxes from 4 to 20 €/tone of CO2 are
shown in the sensitivity analysis of Figure 19. As observed, the increase in the CO2 tax augmented the
cost difference between the two scenarios. Therefore, this factor can play an important role in the total
cost and can encourage the system to a low-carbon emissions system, which is a high-shared renewable
energy heating, cooling, and electricity system. The radial axis represents the variable cost, and the
angular axis represents the CO2 tax.

In this research, zero-step in the planning of the energy systems was a potential assessment and selecting
the most suitable renewable energy for that area. As a result, each area based on its climate potential,

24
power fossil fuels plants were replaced by a renewable energy. This province is able to satisfy half of its
energy demand by solar energy. It is necessary to restructure the energy system of the province to obtain
economic, environmental, and technical goals. Generally, areas with arid climate can implement this
proposed energy model to achieve the mentioned objectives. According to the obtained results, CSP-
based scenarios had the lowest TPES, resulting in the lowest level of pollution, followed by
LOWST&PV. However, investment and O&M cost in CSP-based scenario were higher than other
scenarios. A noteworthy point in the results is the low cost of BAU scenario 1, which is related to the low
fuel prices in the Middle-Eastern countries such as Iran. Fossil fuel-based technologies are more cost-
effective than renewable energies, but according to sensitivity analysis, increased fossil fuel prices can
augment the justifiability of renewable systems; accordingly, LOWST&PV was the most economical

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scenario. As a result, the decrease in fossil fuels will also reduce CO2 emissions. By this strategy, the

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obligations of the Paris Agreement are complied, where the permissible amount of CO2 emissions was
about 9.76 Mt, which in S4 and S5 reached 5.09 Mt and 5.59 Mt, respectively. In other words, CEEP
-p
provides economic and reliability benefits for an energy system; LOWST&PV provided maximum CEEP,
and in this scenario, the energy system promoted an integrated system that could increase the reliability
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and decrease total system losses compared with the current energy system.
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na

0.521
BAU vs NG Price
LOWST&PV vs NG Price 0.6
ur

0.3
Jo

0.9

0.025
500 600 700 800 900

1.2

1.92

1.5

1.8

Figure 18. Analysis of natural gas price on the total costs

25
 10 7
BAU vs Tax
LOWST&PV vs Tax

13 4
0 40 80 120 160 200

of
ro
16
-p 20
re
Figure 19. Sensitivity analysis of CO2 tax on the variable cost
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10. Conclusion and Future Work

According to the importance of renewable energies in decreasing GHG emissions and variable costs of an
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energy system, the community tries to increase the share of renewable energies in their energy systems.
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Areas with arid climates, such as southern Iran, mostly have an excellent potential for solar energy
systems. The residential sector demand (particularly the cooling demand) plays an important role in this
area given the nine-month per year of cooling demand. In this paper, considering GDP and population,
the electricity consumption was predicted up to 2030; for heating and cooling demands, population and
the annual average temperature were further considered. Linear SVR and time-series tools were applied to
forecast the electricity, heating, and cooling demand for 2025 and 2030 time horizons. For these horizons,
five scenarios were investigated, which were based on electricity, heating, and cooling supply. Electricity
can be satisfied by PV or CSP; heating and cooling demand are supplied by solar thermal, absorption
chillers and boilers. These scenarios were implemented to specify four objectives emissions, primary
energy consumption, total annual cost, and critical excess electricity production for each scenario. In this
study, EnergyPLAN was used to model the energy system in each scenario. According to the calculations
performed for 2030, the fifth scenario was the best from an economic aspect. In this scenario, solar
thermal met 50% of the heating and cooling demand, and the PV system satisfied 50% of the electricity

26
demand. Based on the Paris Agreement, the permissible amount of CO2 emissions for this province in
2030 is about 9.76 Mt, which was 5.59 Mt in S5. Natural gas was the system's largest source of energy;
because of the 17% reduction in TPES compared to BAU and Best Scenario (S5) for 2030, about 20
TWh/year of it was saved and ready for export. Also, in this scenario, CEEP was about 0.8 TWh/year and
the province can use this export to compensate some of its costs; while in the last years, this province
forced to import electricity from other provinces. Furthermore, the low price of primary energy supplies
in the Middle East made the renewable-based power plans less feasible; for environmental purposes,
some policies should be taken to make these plans more efficient. Finally, there is no claim that this is the
optimal modeling. Due the climate conditions, this study mainly concentrated on solar energy while other
renewable energies were not mentioned. It is hoped that in future studies, the energy system will be

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examined with more details and different components such as wind turbines, geothermal power plants,

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and electric vehicles and more optimum models will be derived.

-p
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HIGHLIGHTS

• A solar-based energy planning scenario for energy demand supply in arid climates
• The plan considers to meet cooling, heating and electricity demand by green energy.
• Comparing CO2 emission, costs, total primary energy supply, and CEEP shows reliable planning
scheme
• Investigating the effect of emission tax rates and natural gas price on energy system cost.

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Declaration of interests

☒ The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships
that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

☐The authors declare the following financial interests/personal relationships which may be considered
as potential competing interests:

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