J Mater Sci (2023) 58:4795–4808

Computation
COMPUTATION & & theory
THE ORY

Development of a machine learning model

for prediction of continuous cooling transformation
diagrams in welding heat-affected zone
Biao Zhang1, Baigang Wang1, Weihua Xue2, Asad Ullah3, Tianhao Zhang1, and
Hao Wang1,*

1
School of Materials Science and Engineering, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing 100083, China
2
School of Materials Science and Engineering, Liaoning Technical University, Fuxin 123099, China
3
Department of Mathematical Sciences, Karakoram International University, Gilgit-Baltistan 15100, Pakistan

Received: 17 November 2022 ABSTRACT

Accepted: 17 February 2023 The traditional thermal simulation technique for the measurement of the weld
Published online: continuous cooling transformation diagrams in synthetic weld heat-affected
7 March 2023 zone (SH-CCT diagrams) is a complex and time-consuming process. Therefore,
it is necessary to develop a model that can rapidly and accurately predict SH-
Ó The Author(s), under CCT diagrams. In this article, an optimized machine learning (ML) model is
exclusive licence to Springer developed to predict the SH-CCT diagrams of various types of steel, which
Science+Business Media, LLC, consist of the Back Propagation (BP) neural network for the prediction of ferrite
part of Springer Nature 2023 transformation starting temperature curves (Fs), and Radial Basis Function
(RBF) neural network for the prediction of bainite, pearlite, and martensite
transformation starting temperature curves (Bs, Ps, Ms). The accuracy of the
present ML model was firstly verified by the excellent agreement between the
predicted transformation starting temperature curves and the measured values
on the internal dataset (Validation Set I). It was also observed that the predic-
tions obtained through the present model are better than those of the previous
models. Moreover, the excellent generalization ability was further verified by
the prediction performance on the external dataset (Validation Set II), in which
the R2 values were all above 0.93, and the MAE values were less than 7 K. This
successful demonstration indicates that the present model can accurately predict
the SH-CCT diagrams of various types of steel, which provides a certain ref-
erence for the optimization of steel welding process parameters and the pre-
diction of heat-affected zone (HAZ) microstructure.

Handling Editor: Ghanshyam Pilania.

Address correspondence to E-mail: hwang@ustb.edu.cn

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10853-023-08322-9

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4796
GRAPHICAL ABSTRACT
Introduction
Welding technology is a cost-effective way to join
steels together as a whole [1]. However, due to the
complex thermal cycling in the welding process, the
microstructure of the heat-affected zone (HAZ)
shows great inhomogeneity. This inhomogeneous
microstructure seriously weakens the strength and
toughness of the welded joints [2–4]. As one of the
effective strategies to understand the microstructure
variation of HAZ during the continuous cooling
process of steels, the continuous cooling transforma-
tion diagram in synthetic weld heat-affected zone
(SH-CCT diagram) reflects the quantitative relation-
ship between temperature, time, and phase transfor-
mation degree, and can be used to predict the
microstructure and performance of HAZ under given
process conditions. Therefore, an accurate SH-CCT
diagram has great engineering significance for
determining the optimal welding parameters,
revealing the microstructure evolution of HAZ, and
improving the mechanical properties of welded
joints.
The general strategy to obtain SH-CCT diagram is
to apply the welding thermal simulation technique
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J Mater Sci (2023) 58:4795–4808
that uses the Gleeble simulator to simulate the ther-
mal cycling process of the HAZ. By enlarging the
volume of the simulated and comparing it with the
real microstructure of the HAZ, the evolution of the
microstructure and performance can be revealed
[5, 6]. Although this method has high accuracy, it
encounters some challenges such as long cycle, high
cost, and high instrument operation requirements [7].
In addition, the traditional phase transformation
models, based on the development of material ther-
modynamics and dynamics have some difficulties in
describing the transformation process of multiphase
microstructure and the mechanical properties of
mixed microstructure, and cannot effectively describe
the quantitative relationship between temperature,
microstructure, and welding interface performance.
Over the past few years, the technology of com-
bining data-driven machine learning (ML) with
material science has become an effective method to
discover new materials and explore the structure–
property mapping relationship of new materials
[8–10]. Different from the materials simulation tech-
niques developed on the basis of mathematics and
physics, ML technology can bypass the complex
physical mechanism and use the existing historical
data and specific process conditions to construct the
J Mater Sci (2023) 58:4795–4808 4797

model to predict the microstructure and performance
of the target alloys. Hence, ML technology provides a
convenient way to predict the SH-CCT diagrams
quickly and accurately.
Currently, several ML models have been reported
for the prediction of the Time–temperature-transfor-
mation (TTT) diagrams [11–14] and continuous
cooling transformation (CCT) diagrams of various
types of steel [15–21]. In contrast, the reports on
predicting SH-CCT diagrams are quite limited so far.
Recently, Geng et al. [22, 23] used various ML algo-
rithms consisting of Random Forest (RF), K-Nearest
Neighbours (K-NN) and Random committee to
establish ML models for predicting SH-CCT dia-
grams for low-alloy steels and Ni-Cr-(Mo) steels
based on different steel classification datasets. How-
ever, the strategy of dividing datasets according to
steel types leads to a small amount of data applied to
train the model, which reduces the prediction accu-
racy of the model. Furthermore, this model is only
applicable to individual alloy systems, which is very
unfavorable for the discovery of new steel materials.
Minamoto et al. [24] applied the RF algorithm to
develop an ML model and adopted a progressive
approach to predict the Ac3 temperatures critical
cooling rates and transformation starting tempera-
tures for a wide range of steels. However, this pro-
gressive prediction approach leads to the error being
magnified step by step, which eventually affects the
prediction accuracy of the SH-CCT diagrams.
Besides, the generalizability of the model for new
samples outside the training set cannot be evaluated.
Therefore, the existing ML models for predicting SH-
CCT diagrams have their limitations to be used
widely.
In this study, in order to address the above prob-
lems, an optimized ML model combining BP neural
network and RBF neural network is proposed to
developed ML model. Sect. ‘‘Conclusion’’ gives some
important conclusions of the current study.
Modeling
Data collection, preprocessing, and cleaning
The reliability of ML prediction largely depends on
the quantity and quality of the dataset. In this study,
256 pairs of SH-CCT diagrams were screened from
the database of the MatNavi National Institute for
Materials Science (NIMS) [25] to construct the model.
Moreover, 4 pairs of SH-CCT diagrams of different
types of steel were randomly selected from earlier
work of Geng et al. [22, 23] (Validation Set I, included
in NIMS database), together with 4 pairs of diagrams
from the literature [26–29] (Validation Set II, not
included in NIMS database) are applied for the final
model validation. The alloying elements of all the
collected steels, as well as the composition, are shown
in supplementary Tables S-I to S-III (refer to elec-
tronic supplementary material). Figure 1 shows a
typical SH-CCT diagram from NIMS database [25].
From Fig. 1, the HAZ microstructure evolution from
the Ac3 temperature can be accurately described
according to the different cooling rates (CR). If the
cooling rate is below the critical cooling rates of
pearlite (Cp), austenite transformed to ferrite (C0-C1),
pearlite (C1-C2), bainite (C2-C3) and martensite
(Below C3), successively. (As per Region I, C0, C1, C2
and C3 are the intersection points of the cooling curve
1200 C Si Mn Ni Cr Mo V Al B
NK-HT80 0.12 0.26 0.86 0.85 0.53 0.54 0.05 0.01 0.00 wt.%
Ac3=1076 K
1000
Ac1=992 K
A Fs
Temperature (K)

predict the SH-CCT diagrams of various types of Cf

Cp c0
F
800 Ps
steel. This work is organized as follows: Cz Bs
c1
c2
P
Ms
Sect. ‘‘Modeling’’ introduces the data collection and c3
Zw
preprocessing process, as well as the optimization
600
process of some important parameters of BP neural
IV III II I
networks and RBF neural networks. Sect. ‘‘Results M
and discussion’’ constructs a combined ML model for CR(K/s)
400 100 53 30 23 10 5 4 2 1 0.5
predicting the SH-CCT diagrams, and compares the
prediction results of the present model based on the
1 10 100 1000
internal and external validation sets with the exper-
Time (s)
imental values as well as the previous work to verify
the accuracy and generalization ability of the Figure 1 A typical SH-CCT diagram [25].

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4798
and the transformation starting temperature curves
of ferrite (Fs), pearlite (Ps), bainite (Bs) and marten-
site (Ms)). The corresponding microstructures refer to
Supplementary Figure R1. As the cooling rate
exceeds Cp/Cf, implying that the pearlite/ferrite no
longer appears (As per Region II and III). If the
cooling rate is above Cz, the final microstructure is
transformed into martensite (As per Region IV).
Therefore, factors related to the SH-CCT diagram
included the composition, cooling rate (CR), Ac1 and
Ac3 temperatures, as well as the transformation
starting temperature curves of ferrite (Fs), pearlite
(Ps), bainite (Bs) and martensite (Ms) are all collected
as features to participate in the model construction.
As discussed earlier, the strategy of dividing the
datasets by steel types of the existing models has
many drawbacks, such as the small amount of data
applied to train the model, the insufficient prediction
accuracy and the weak generalization ability of the
models. To avoid these problems, a new dataset
partitioning strategy of targeting specific phase
transformation temperature curves is adopted in this
work. In other words, if there are specified phase
transformation temperature curves in the graph, the
relevant information about these transformation
temperature curves will be collected in the local
database regardless of whether other phase trans-
formation temperature curves exist. This strategy also
ensures the uniformity of prediction models for all
types of steel. Using the digital tool in Origin 2018, all
the transformation temperature curves in the SH-
CCT diagrams of the partitioned datasets were
transformed into time–temperature text data. Where
the time was expressed in logarithmic form, and the
cooling rate (CR) can be transformed according to
Eq. (1)
A C3  T
CR ¼ ð1Þ
t
Before training, the initial data should be prepro-
cessed to ensure its reliability. In the present work,
Cook distance value [30] was used to judge the col-
lected data. If the Cook distance value is too large, it
indicates that the data have a greater impact on the
model, and the abnormal data should be removed.
Finally, the preprocessed data were divided accord-
ing to the ratio of the training set, test set, and vali-
dation set as 0.7, 0.15, and 0.15. The final dataset
division results are shown in supplementary
Table S-IV.
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J Mater Sci (2023) 58:4795–4808
Machine learning model
The BP and RBF neural networks used in this paper
are both three-layer network structures, including an
input layer, a hidden layer and an output layer.
Figure 2 show the schematic diagrams of these two
network structures. The input layer of the neural
network includes composition (Supplementary
Table S-I), transformation time, temperatures of Ac1,
Ac3, and cooling rate (CR), and the output layer are
the phase transformation temperatures. The rela-
tionship between input and output layers can be
expressed as:
T ¼ Fðx; t; CRÞ ð2Þ
To quantitatively describe the prediction perfor-
mance of the model, mean square error (MSE), mean
absolute error (MAE), and regression coefficient (R2)
are applied to comprehensively evaluate the model
prediction effect. (Eqs. 3–5).
1X N  2
MSE ¼ yi  y^i ð3Þ
N i¼1
1X N  
MAE ¼ y^  yi  ð4Þ
N i¼1 i
PN  2
i¼1 y^i  yi
2
R ¼ PN  2 ð5Þ
i¼1 yi  y i
where N represents the number of data, yi and y^i
represents the experiment values and the predicted
values, respectively. The smaller MSE and MAE
values indicate the higher prediction accuracy of the
model, and the R2 converges to 1, implying the better
match between the prediction values and the exper-
imental values.
Optimization of the back propagation (BP) neural network
BP neural network, as one of the most widely used
neural networks, can freely adjust the network
structure parameters according to the actual prob-
lems. As shown in Fig. 2a, after receiving the input
data {x, t,..., CR}, the hidden layer neurons compare
the linear weighted values of the weights w and the
input information with the initial biases h, and then
processed by the hidden layer activation function f to
obtain the activation values. Similarly, the activation
values are connected to the output layer through the
weights q, after being processed by the output layer
J Mater Sci (2023) 58:4795–4808
Figure 2 Architecture of the BP and RBF neural network.
activation to obtain the output value T. Subsequently,
the training algorithm continuously corrects the
weights and biases of the network through back
propagation to minimize the error between the
measured value and the output value. Therefore, the
prominent parameters of BP neural network that
need to be considered include the training algorithm,
the activation function, and the number of neurons in
the hidden layer. In this work, 13 training algorithms
(i.e., gradient descent method, quasi-Newton
method, conjugate gradient method, Bayesian Regu-
larization and Levenberg Marquardt, etc.), and 3
activation functions (sigmoid, tansig, and purelin) are
selected to establish models for Fs, Bs, Ps, and Ms,
respectively. The training algorithm and activation
function with the minimum MSE are determined as
the optimal parameters. Finally, Bayesian Regular-
ization (BR) algorithm is applied to determine the Fs
and Bs. Levenberg Marquardt (LM) algorithm is
applied to determine the Ps and Ms. The sigmoid
function is determined as the activation function
between the input layer and the hidden layer, and the
purelin function is determined as the activation
function between the hidden layer and the output
layer.
On the basis of determining the training algorithm
and activation function of the BP neural network, the
number of hidden layer neurons is further deter-
mined. Since both the LM and BR algorithms are
participating in model training, two models are
established for each training algorithm. Figure 3
illustrates the MSE values with the number of hidden
neurons for the model trained by the LM and BR
algorithms. As can be seen, regardless of which
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4799
1200
Bayesian Regularization (BR)
Levenberg Marquardt (LM)
1000
Mean Square Error
800
600
400
200
0
5 10 15 20 25 30
Number of hidden layer neurons
Figure 3 Relationship between MSE values of training samples
and the number of hidden layer neuron.
training algorithm is used, the MSE values of the
model decrease with the increase in the number of
hidden neurons, and converges to 10 K when the
number of hidden neurons is greater than 9. In order
to avoid overfitting phenomenon and improve the
training speed, the number of neurons in the hidden
layer is chosen as 9. The detailed model parameters
are shown in Supplementary Table S-V.
The predicted performance of the BP neural net-
work with adjusted parameters is verified by the test
set, and the initial weights and biases of the BP model
are given random values by MATLAB. The predic-
tion results are shown in Fig. 3.
Aiming to avoid the degradation of prediction
accuracy caused by the random assignment of the
initial weights and biases of the BP neural networks,
various efficient global optimization methods have
been proposed to improve the prediction
4800
performance. In the present work, Particle Swarm
Optimization (PSO) algorithm [31], Mind Evolution-
ary Algorithm (MEA) [32], and Genetic Algorithm
(GA) [33] were selected to establish optimization
models for Fs, Bs, Ps, and Ms respectively. The set-
tings of related PSO, MEA, and GA parameters are
summarized in Supplementary Table S-VI.
In addition, considering that there may be a certain
linear relationship and data noise among the input
variables, which tend to negatively affect the output
variables, it is required to extract mutually indepen-
dent low-dimensional features from the high-di-
mensional features to reduce the dimensionality of
the feature space and decrease the data noise. In this
study, Factor Analysis (FA) method is used to reduce
the dimensionality of the feature space, and com-
bined the Factor Analysis (FA) method into PSO/
MEA/GA algorithm to further improve the predic-
tion performance of the BP neural network. To show
the effect of dimensionality reduction on the predic-
tion effect, both the non-dimensional reduction
model and the dimensionality reduction model are
used to predict Fs, Bs, Ps and Ms. The prediction
performance obtained by the two models are shown
in Fig. 4.
Optimization of the radial basis function (RBF) neural
network
Compared to BP neural network, as shown in Fig. 2b,
the hidden layer neurons of the RBF neural network
adopt the Euclidean distance between the input
information and the center point as the independent
variable of the function, and use radial basis function
as activation function to achieve the approximation of
sample values to the center points. Therefore, it can
approximate any nonlinear function globally and no
local minimum problem exists. Moreover, RBF neural
network also has the advantages of good general-
ization ability, fast learning, and convergence speed.
Thus, RBF neural network is also applied to construct
predictive model.
The common activation functions of the RBF neural
network include Gaussian function, multi-quadric
function, linear function, etc. [34]. In the present
work, Gaussian function uðxi ; ci Þ is used as the acti-
vation function. As a result, RBF neural network can
be expressed as follows:
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J Mater Sci (2023) 58:4795–4808
q
X q
X kxi ci k2
f ð xÞ ¼ wi  uðxi ; ci Þ ¼ wi e 2r2 ð6Þ
i¼1 i¼1
where wi is the weight of the ith hidden node, q is the
number of Gaussian functions,ci is the center point of
each activation function and r is the spread constant.
kxi  ci k represent the Euclidean distance from xi to ci .
According to Eq. (6), the parameters of RBF neural
network to be solved mainly include the center point ci ,
weight wi and the spread constant r. More interestingly,
ci can be sampled from the training samples. The weight
wi can be adjusted by back propagation. Thus, the
parameters of the present work are mainly to determine
the spread constant. The magnitude of the spread con-
stant of RBF neural network determines how much the
function decays with the change of distance. Therefore,
a suitable spread constant is the prerequisite for the
excellent prediction effect of RBF neural network.
By considering this fact, a series of RBF neural net-
work models with progressively increasing spread
constant are constructed for each transformation tem-
perature curve. The tenfold cross-validation is applied
to training ML model, which randomly divides the
training sets into 10 equal parts, one of which is
reserved for validation, the remaining parts are used for
training, and the average value of 10 test parameters
taken as the final result. Finally, the ideal value of the
spread constant is determined by the R2 of each model.
Figure 5 illustrates the variation of R2 with the spread
constant. It can be observed that with the increases in
the spread constant, R2 gradually increases, and con-
verges to 1 when the spread constant reaches a certain
value. Finally, the spread constant of RBF neural net-
work for predicting Fs, Bs, Ps, and Ms are determined to
be 82, 36, 56, and 82 respectively, the corresponding R2
values are 0.995, 0.993, 0.994, and 0.992 respectively.
The predicted performance of the RBF neural network
with optimized spread constant is verified by the test
set, and the results are also superimposed in Fig. 4 for
the convenience of comparison with the BP neural
network predictions.
Results and discussion
Model construction
From Fig. 4a, it can be observed that the BP, the RBF,
and the Optimized BP models by combining the
J Mater Sci (2023) 58:4795–4808
Figure 4 MAE and MSE values of eight models based on the test set.
Factor Analysis (FA) method into PSO/MEA/GA
algorithm (FA-PSO-BP, FA-MEA-BP, and FA-GA-BP)
have good prediction performance for predicting the
Fs. Among them, the values of MAE and MSE of the
BP and RBF models are less than 10 K. Compared to
the RBF model, the MSE of the BP model is 1, which
is significantly superior to that of the RBF model. This
also implies that the BP model with adjusted
parameters has a significant advantage in predicting
the Fs. Therefore, the BP model is adopted in the
present work. As presented in Fig. 4b, both the RBF,
FA-PSO-BP and FA-GA-BP models are suitable for
the prediction of Bs, and the MAE values of the three
models are not greater than 5 K. In terms of training
speed, however, the optimization process of the FA-
PSO-BP and FA-GA-BP models are extremely time-
consuming, which results in the overall prediction
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4801
process taking twice as long as that of the RBF model.
Considering this fact, the RBF model is the most
suitable choice to predict the Bs. For the prediction of
Ps, the MAE values of RBF, FA-PSO-BP and FA-GA-
BP models are all less than 10 K (see Fig. 4c). Com-
pared to other models, RBF model has a lower MSE
value and excellent learning speed. Such advantages
are incomparable to the other two models. Conse-
quently, the RBF model is also used for the prediction
of the Ps. Similarly, as depicted in Fig. 4d, the MAE
and MSE values of the Ms predicted by RBF model
are 1 K and 12, respectively, which are much more
precise than the other models. Undoubtedly, the RBF
model is also applied for the prediction of the Ms. All
the codes for the present model can be found on
GitHub (https://github.com/wbg-dev).
4802
Figure 5 The relationship between R2 and spread constant a Fs; b Bs; c Ps; d Ms.
Model validation
Various transformation temperature curves predicted
by the present model were compared with experi-
mental data and previous evaluation results, the
accuracy and excellent generalization ability of the
present model are verified firstly. Figure 6 displays
the prediction results obtained by using the present
model based on internal validation set (Validation Set
I). As can be seen that even though the compositions
of the 4 types of steel varies considerably (refer to
supplementary Table S-II), the predicted phase tran-
sition temperature curves (red lines) have the similar
transformation pattern as the corresponding experi-
mental curves (black lines). Figure 7 shows the
regression performance between the predicted and
experimental values. Once again, most of the data
points are homogeneously distributed around the
asymptotic lines, which sufficiently demonstrates the
high prediction accuracy of the present model.
Meanwhile, the results obtained by Geng et al.
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J Mater Sci (2023) 58:4795–4808
[22, 23] are also presented in Fig. 6 for further com-
parison (dashed line). It can be observed that all the
transformation temperature curves predicted by the
present work and previous work are very consistent
with the change trend of the experimental results, but
the match between the prediction values of the pre-
sent model and the experimental values is better than
those of the Geng’s model. Moreover, using the
Geng’s model requires first classifying the steels and
then selecting the appropriate prediction model for
the corresponding steel. The present model simplifies
the classification process and only needs to input the
composition and the process parameters of the target
steel, then the model can automatically plot the
transformation temperature curves. This convenience
is incomparable to other models.
To visually describe the deviations directly existing
between the present prediction and previous work,
the prediction performance on the internal validation
set (Validation Set I) of the present model as well as
J Mater Sci (2023) 58:4795–4808
Figure 6 Predicted SH-CCT diagram by the present model, compared with the experimental data [25]and previous assessment [22, 23]
(dashed lines). a 1#; b 2#; c 3#; d 4#.
Geng’s models are summarized in Table 1. As pre-
sented in Table 1, the MAE values of each transfor-
mation temperature curve in the 4 types of steel
determined by the present model are less than 11 K,
which is significantly superior to the previous pre-
diction, even though they claim that the errors
already meet industrial requirements. In addition, the
R2 of all the transformation temperature curves in 1#,
2#, and 3# reaches 0.98, except for the Ms in 1#,
implying that the present model has excellent pre-
diction performance and generalization ability. As for
Ms in 1#, Bs and Ms in 4#, the MSE and MAE values
are small (7.11/0.58, 79.92/3.21 and 13.10/0.92,
respectively), but the R2 is far away from 1. The
reason for this deviation is due to the fact that these
transformation temperature curves are almost con-
stant as the CR decreases, so the variances of the
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4803
samples are essentially 0, which results in the R2
deviates far from 1.
The ability to extend to new samples outside the
training datasets has been an important indicator for
evaluating the generalizability of established
machine learning [35]. Based on the external valida-
tion set (Validation Set II), the generalization ability
of the present model on different source datasets was
further verified, and the predicted results are shown
in Fig. 8 and Fig. 9. It is evident from these fig-
ures that the present predicted transformation tem-
perature curves can account for most of the measured
data except those of Fs in the 6# and 8#. The accuracy
of the Fs predicted by the present model gradually
decreases when the CR is below 2 K/s and 6 K/s
respectively, resulting in large deviations between
the predicted values and the measured values. The
4804 J Mater Sci (2023) 58:4795–4808

Figure 7 The predicted values versus the experimental values on Validation Sets I. a 1#; b 2#; c 3#; d 4#.

Table 1 Summary of the MSE/MAE/ R2 of the present work and previous work on Validation Sets I

Steel Fs Bs Ps Ms References

1# 51.22/5.22/0.9944 0.01/0.04/0.9995 126.41/10.99/0.9905 7.11/0.58/0.0581 This work

492.84/19.3 31.36/4.1 94.09/9.1 169/10.7 [22]
2# 5.45/1.83/0.9988 0.08/0.17/0.9998 – 4.74/0.64/0.9814 This work
102.01/8.4 92.16/6.7 – 234.09/13.3 [23]
3# 18.14/2.51/0.9985 2.16/0.47/0.9991 16.03/3.03/0.9991 0.01/0.03/0.9998 This work
645.16/20.3 342.25/15.6 174.24/10.8 912.04/23.2 [22]
4# 273.35/10.86/0.8451 79.92/3.21/0.5168 – 13.10/0.92/0.6823 This work
90.25/4.8 380.25/17.9 – 67.24/7.6 [23]

reason for this bias is due to the small amount of the
Fs datasets within this range. On the other hand,
different sources of data also may lead to prediction
performance degradation. Moreover, the close con-
sistency of the predicted Fs with the trend of the
measured data implies that the present results are
acceptable. Figure 10 displays the error statistical
parameters between the predicted values and the
experimental values. Although the data were from
different sources, the R2 values predicted by the

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J Mater Sci (2023) 58:4795–4808
Figure 8 Predicted SH-CCT diagrams by the present model, compared with experimental data [26–29]. a 5#; b 6#; c 7#; d 8#.
present model are all above 0.93, and the MAE values
are all less than 7 K. This further indicates that the
present model also exhibits excellent generalization
ability to different source datasets.
Conclusion
In this paper, eight optimized neural networks were
used to construct ML models to predict phase
transformation temperature curves in SH-CCT dia-
grams of various types of steel. The evaluation results
show that the BP neural network was suitable for
predicting Fs and the RBF neural network was suit-
able for predicting Bs, Ps, and Ms. The prediction
accuracy of the present model was first validated by
evaluating the prediction performance on the internal
validation set (Validation Set I). The results show that
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4805
various transformation temperature curves predicted
by the present model are in good agreement with the
experimental values, and the MAE values in the
internal data set are all less than 11 K, which indi-
cates that the present model has excellent prediction
accuracy. Meanwhile, it is also observed that the
prediction results obtained by the present model fit
well with the experimental ones as compared to the
previous model. Moreover, the prediction perfor-
mance of the model on the external validation set
(Validation Set II) is consistent with the experimental
values, and the R2 reaches 0.93, MAE value less than
7 K, which again verifies the excellent generalization
ability of the present model.
In summary, the optimization model developed in
this paper based on BP and RBF neural networks can
achieve superior predictive performance in predict-
ing SH-CCT diagrams for a wide range of steels.
4806 J Mater Sci (2023) 58:4795–4808

Figure 9 The predicted values versus the experimental values on Validation Sets I. a 5#; b 6#; c 7#; d 8#.

the welding process while facing difficulties with

experimental approaches.

Figure 10 Error statistical parameters predicted by present
models on Validation Sets II.
Moreover, the generalization ability for different
source samples were further confirmed. This model
also provides a strategy for researchers studying the
microstructure evolution of the HAZ or optimizing
Acknowledgements
The authors acknowledge the financial support from
the National Key Research and Development Pro-
gram of China [No. 2016YFB0700505] and the
National Natural Science Foundation of China [No.
51571020].
Author contributions
BZ contributed to Writing-Original draft preparation,
Methodology. BW contributed to Data curation,
Software. WX contributed to Formal analysis. AU
contributed to Writing-Review and Editing. TZ

Content courtesy of Springer Nature, terms of use apply. Rights reserved.

J Mater Sci (2023) 58:4795–4808
contributed to Investigation. HW contributed to
Conceptualization, Project administration, Funding
acquisition.
Declarations
Conflict of interest The authors declare that they
have no conflict of interest.
Data availability The data source files are available
in the supplementary material.
Ethical approval Not Applicable.
Supplementary Information: The online version
contains supplementary material available at http
s://doi.org/10.1007/s10853-023-08322-9.
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