Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Presentation
DB Div BAP Eco
1 NIM Rev NI ROE TI L D Dep Loan ICAP Guid Mkt
ESG
Hist C/I App
Table of Content
2
1 Sound Fundamentals 4
Adequate
business mix Solid asset quality, high 3
Strong retail, wholesale and liquidity, and strong
Solid corporate governance
premium banking platforms, capitalization ratios.
Independent Board Members Digital Strategy
as well as leading represent 64% of total board Prepared for the
insurance and pension fund composition and best practices Future
management units, serving in minority shareholder right …
more than 19 million protection.
clients.
14.9%*
1,2,3 Plan
20|20 Plan
Client • Banorte’s
Segmentation Digital
Business Diversification Transformation
* Loan book IT : central DB,
Market Share
Inorganic Growth multichannel • JV Rappi
2.3%
Profitability • bineo –
Regional Bank Digital Bank
1899 … 1982-1992 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2022
Banorte INB IXE
Nationalization
Privatization
Establishment
… …
PROCESSES
Account opening - Credit Analysis Google
Hyper-personalization
Next Best Offer – Next Best Action
In progress…
Banorte Futuro
98.22%
Afore XXI
Banorte
50.0%
Million pesos 2Q23 q/q y/y 1H23 y/y ROE 1H23 Other Finance
Companies
Bank 10,184 1% 11% 20,314 22% Afore
27.2% 1%
2% Holding
Broker Dealer & Mutual F. 239 170% (22%) 328 (73%) 3%
11.2%
Annuities
Insurance 1,221 (12%) 43% 2,610 25% 5%
56.4%
Bank
Annuities 489 (17%) (6%) 1,075 4% Insurance 78%
20.2%
11%
Pension Funds (Afore) 295 1% 198% 588 131%
10.2% Broker Dealer &
BAP (Holding) 20 (26%) 1477% 47 1655% Mutual Funds
1%
Other Finance Comp. 156 42% (36%) 266 (28%)
NIM
7.0% 6.6%
6.3%
6.5%
5.9% 5.8%
6.0% 5.6%
5.5% 5.6% 5.4%
5.5% 5.3%
4.9% 67
5.0% 4.7%
4.4% 4.5%
4.5% 4.1% 4.8%
4.0%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23
NIM (Post-Provision)
6.5%
5.7% 5.8%
6.0%
5.4%
5.5%
4.9%
4.8%
5.0% 4.5%
4.3% 4.4%
4.5%
3.9%
4.0% 3.7%
3.4% 3.4% 3.5% 3.5% 4.2%
3.5%
3.0%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23
▄ Active ALCO
1,205 1,222
1,127 1,156 1,167
▄ Organic growth of floating rate portfolio 979
1,064
842 865
▄ A well-prepared asset & liability management
638
strategy to take advantage of the rate cycle and 554 566
anticipate the imminent easing cycle 428
▄ Net fees flat q/q; 1H23 +9% y/y, Bank +19% y/y +9%
Net Fees
1H23 y/y
▄ Core banking fees +4% q/q; 1H23 +7% y/y, with Million
4,500 Previous criteria IFRS
pesos 4,208 4,187
electronic banking services +9% y/y 4,035
4,000
▄ POS transactions +7% y/y; +48% y/y in mobile
monetary transactions 3,500
3,000
3Q21
4Q21
1Q22
3Q22
4Q22
1Q23
2Q23
2Q22
2Q21
3Q21
4Q21
1Q22
2Q22
3Q22
4Q22
1Q23
2Q23
Cost to Income
57.0% 54.0% Previous Criteria IFRS
52.0%
52.0% 48.5% 47.9% Recurring
44.9% 40.0% 39.7% 45.4%
47.0%
42.8%
41.4%
42.0% 39.0% 39.1%
42.7% 36.5%
37.0% 34.5% 34.1%
37.4%
32.0%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23
• 4Q22 expenses +23% q/q on 1.6bn extraordinary expenses (personnel and amortizations).
Strengthening commercial and SME teams, as we anticipate increased demand in these sectors.
Net Income
Million Pesos
CAGR +30%
+15% YoY
2012-2022 +14%
YoY
47,000 45,408
13,500 13,088
42,000 13,018
36,528
37,000 12,500
+1%
31,958 35,583 11,524 11,544 11,592 QoQ
35,345 35,048
32,000 11,500
30,311 30,508
27,000
23,908 Recurring
10,500
22,000 19,308
17,108 9,500
17,000 15,228
13,508
10,888 8,500
12,000
7,000 7,500
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018* 2019* 2020 2021 2022 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23
ROA
2.30% 2.43%
2.5% 2.18% 2.26%
1.86% 2.05% 1.94% 2.48%
2.0% 2.07% 2.22% 2.27%
1.60%
1.40% 1.46% 1.47%
1.5% 1.30% 1.76% 1.85%
1.0%
0.5%
Previous Criteria Recurring IFRS
0.0%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018* 2019* 2020* 2021 2022 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23
18% 17.0%
15%
14.3% 14.2% 14.1%
13.2% 13.3% 15.3%
14.8%
12%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018* 2019* 2020* 2021 2022 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23
10%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018* 2019* 2020* 2021 2022 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23
30%
24%
20.9%
21%
19.1%
15%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018* 2019* 2020* 2021 2022 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23
2. Rappi JV
Transactions (Tx)
Transactions
2Q23 (millions)
Branches 900.0 802.9
2.1% WEB 800.0
12% 700.0
POS 24% 600.0
500.0 +31%
Correspondents 0% 400.0
300.0 y/y
Call Center 1% 10% 51% Mobile
200.0
ATM 100.0
0.0
+1.7 pts
82.3 +2.1 pts 83.7 vs 2Q22
vs 2Q22
YOUR
VOICE Branches ATM
TRASFORMS
200
168
150
100
155 174 190
50 104 CoDi
0
3Q21
2Q22
1Q23
2Q21
4Q21
1Q22
3Q22
4Q22
2Q23
Bank Deposits
2018 $759 bn 2Q23 $982 bn US 57.3 bn
Demand Time
Time Demand
Consumer Consumer
Government
Government
Mortgage Mortgage
Commercial
Commercial
Corporate Corporate
Deposits
CAGR 2011-2022
Billion Pesos +10%
YoY
1,000 895 +7%
900
Time Demand Core Deposits 840 834 818 840 833
751 750
800
637 667 652 YoY
700 590 623 +11% 616 600 623 614 +6%
551 533 538
600 509
500 436 414 438
384 384 397
400 336 351
306 300 YoY
255 223 229 243
300 211 194 217 211 217 218 218 217 219 +11%
190 158 168 +6%
200 116 124 129 136
100
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23
MIX
Time
38%
Demand
62%
2011 2Q23
DB Div BAP Eco
24 NIM Rev NI ROE TI L D Dep Loan ICAP Guid Mkt
ESG
Hist C/I App
Continued Growth in Performing Loan Book, Special Focus on Consumer
Loan Portfolio
Billion Pesos
966 YoY
920 920 950
1,000 +12%
861 876
900 802 821
777 763
800
700 616 CAGR:
567 +9%
600 518
472
500 401 425
400
300
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23
13.7%
14.0% 30.0% 29.4% 20.0%
12.8%
NPL Ratio
3.1%
2.9%
3.0%
Previous Criteria IFRS
2.5% 2.2%
2.1% 2.0%
2.0% 1.8%
1.7% 1.7%
1.5%
1.1% 1.0%
1.0%
0.9% 1.1% 1.00% 1.02% 1.04% 1.07% 1.04% 1.05%
0.5%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23
Coverage Ratio
250% 224%
207% 193% 188%
200% 179% 179% 182% 182.2%
138% 191%
150% 139% 129% 142% 138%
105% 107% 116%
100%
50%
Previous Criteria IFRS
0%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23
Cost of Risk
3.0% 2.8%
2.5%
2.5%
2.0%
2.0% 2.3%
2.2%
1.39%
1.5% 1.8%
1.59% 1.59% 1.66%
1.0% Pre-2022 Criteria Pre-2018 Criteria 1.39% 1.36% 1.43%
Recurring IFRS 1.13%
0.5%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23
* Cost of Risk: Provisions / Average Total loans (Performing + Past Due), On current criteria all the recoveries are register on Provisions (net)
24.7%
22.8% 22.9% 23.0% 22.8%
22.1% 21.7%
20.2% Tier 2 TLAC
18.6% to 2025
17.2% 17.2% 17.90%
15.3% 15.3% Total
14.6%
Tier 1
21.4% 13.025%
+1.625%
TLAC 4Q22
11.40%
9.40%
15.3% 15.3% 15.1% 15.4% 15.4% CET1 7.90%
12.7% 12.4% 12.1% 11.9% 12.7% 12.7%
13.9% 13.7% 14.7%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23
Minimum
Regulatory
RWA annual growth Ratios
+11% +8% +16% (2%) +19% +7% +17% (8%) (1%) (3%) (3%) (1%) 10% 10%
1,400
4,000
2,153
1,200
2,000
1,000 995 1,001
943 0
800 819 (1,357)
0 -8,000
1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23
AFORE
Net Income 601 1,197 131%
Equity 23,602 23,602 3%
Assets 25,528 25,528 2%
AUM 1,121,027 1,121,027 10%
ROE 10.3% 10.2% 5.8 pp
ROTE 36.8% 35.3%
Annuities
Net Income 489 1,075 4%
Equity 10,668 10,668 13%
Assets 245,270 245,270 10%
Premiums 3,838 8,092 (16%)
ROE 18.8% 20.2% (3.0) pp
3,324
pesos
2,543
business behavior: 4,000
(868)
▄ Claims only +1% 8,708 0
▄ Acquisition cost increased +83% on bancassurance fees
adjustment (offset by more fees in the bank, and no impact in 8,000 (2,000)
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
the group)
2021 2022 2023
▄ Net Income +37%
6,000
Change Change
2Q23 1H23 Damages & Claims
(Million Pesos) q/q y/y y/y 4,361
6,000
Net Interest Income (NII) 800 4% 71% 1,567 82%
4,000
4,316
Premium Income 8,708 (12%) 100% 18,595 22%
3,646
Net Increase in Tech. Reserves 2,543 (23%) 393% 5,867 61%
3,427
Cost of Aq. from Insur. Oper. 848 (46%) 44% 2,417 83% 4,000
2,000
Claims 4,316 26% 18% 7,743 1%
Securities-Realized Gains 277 120% 403% 402 335%
Other Operating Income 99 (13%) (56%) 214 (53%) 2,000
1Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
2Q
3Q
-
Non-Interest Expense 420 (25%) (4%) 981 6%
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
2021 2022 2023
Operating Income 1,757 (13%) 52% 3,771 31% 2021 2022 2023
Deposits Loans
2nd 2nd
Banorte 19.6% 22.2% 20.7% 20.9% 10.2% 9.9% 18.6% 19.5% 11.6% 12.2% 26.6% 25.7% 13.4% 13.8%
BBVA 30.6% 27.3% 37.9% 37.4% 31.4% 31.6% 25.9% 25.5% 20.9% 21.5% 29.0% 28.8% 23.1% 21.9%
CitiBanamex 0.0% 0.0% 15.4% 14.9% 24.5% 23.1% 5.9% 5.5% 9.3% 8.7% 7.5% 7.5% 14.5% 12.9%
Santander 14.8% 16.8% 13.3% 13.7% 13.9% 14.2% 17.4% 16.8% 12.2% 11.1% 13.9% 13.1% 11.7% 12.3%
HSBC 5.8% 7.3% 9.8% 8.9% 6.6% 7.2% 9.9% 10.8% 5.9% 5.9% 3.7% 3.5% 7.3% 7.0%
ScotiaBank 12.3% 9.8% 0.4% 0.5% 2.3% 2.0% 15.8% 16.1% 7.5% 6.7% 2.2% 2.7% 6.4% 7.2%
Inbursa 6.2% 5.8% 0.8% 2.0% 2.9% 2.7% 0.4% 0.4% 7.0% 7.8% 5.2% 4.7% 3.3% 3.9%
Others 10.6% 10.8% 1.7% 1.7% 8.1% 9.3% 6.0% 5.5% 25.5% 26.0% 12.0% 13.9% 20.3% 21.1%
Market
2° 2° 4° 2° 2° 2° 2°
Position
Source: CNBV
+38bp +59bp
+88bp
(28bp) +19bp
+258bp
Source: CNBV
Corporate
Crecimiento
Growth (YoY(YoY)
)
Participación de Mercado
Market Share ICV Auto
NPL Automotriz
39.0%
33.8% 36.0%
35.0% 33.0% 4.0%
30.0%
27.0%
25.0% 3.0%
23.0% 22.2%
15.0% 20.0%
2.0%
17.0%
5.0%
14.0%
1.0%
-5.0% 11.0%
8.0% 0.56%
-15.0% 0.0%
j a s o n d e f mam j j a s o n d e f mam j j 5.0% j a s o n d e f mam j j a s o n d e f mam j j
j a s o n d e f mam j j a s o n d e f mam j j
2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023
Santander BBVA Banorte Santander BBVA Banorte
Santander BBVA Banorte
Scotiabank HSBC Sistema Scotiabank HSBC Scotiabank HSBC Sistema
Payroll
Crecimiento
Growth (YoY(YoY)
) Market Share
Participación de Mercado ICV Nómina
NPL Payroll
25.0% 38.0%
18.4%
3.5%
20.0% 33.0%
15.0% 28.0%
3.0% 3.2%
10.0% 23.0% 20.9%
Source: CONSAR
Metlife México 24,082 26,122 13.3% 12.5% 1,551 1,661 14.7% 11.9%
BBVA Bancomer 14,814 17,604 8.2% 8.4% 1,061 2,027 10.0% 14.5%
AXA Seguros 14,454 15,886 8.0% 7.6% 258 455 2.4% 3.3%
13,532 11,640 7.5% 5.6% 5° 1,222 1,366 11.5% 9.8% 4°
Seguros Banorte
Qualitas 8,869 11,419 4.9% 5.4% 698 737 6.6% 5.3%
Monterrey New York Life 9,516 10,223 5.3% 4.9% 421 799 4.0% 5.7%
Source: AMIS.
Market Capitalization
Million Pesos US 23.8 bn
500,000
2Q23
350,000
Ticket Indexes
300,000
323,437
IPC (BMV)
Sustainable IPC (BMV)
GFNORTE O (BMV) Oil and
MSCI Mexico 250,000
STOXX COVID-19
crisis
DJSI MILA
Climate Disclosure Leadership 200,000
GBOOY (OTCQX)
OTCQX30
Euronext Vigeo EM70
150,000
FTSE Latibex All Shares
4Q15
2Q16
4Q16
2Q17
4Q17
2Q18
4Q18
2Q19
4Q19
2Q20
4Q20
2Q21
4Q21
2Q22
4Q22
2Q23
XNOR (Latibex)
FTSE Latibex TOP
(1) Level 1
Maximum $207.0
# BUY 18
# HOLD 3
Moody’s Baa2 Stable Jul-22
# SELL 0
MSCI ESG
Latest Ratings
Action:
Three AA
consecutive
years
Adherence to the CLIMATE UN GLOBAL COMPACT FTSE rating of 3.7/5. Adherence to: GOLD AWARD in the
DATA WORKING GROUP Communication on Progress FTSE4Good Emerging Index, STRATEGIC INNOVATION
(CDWG) by PCAF (COP) 2023 REPORT FTSE4FGood Emerging Latin category for positively impacting
American Index and FTSE4Good BIVA the community at the 8th edition
Participation in the GEI of the Financial Innovators in
MEXICO PROGRAM, level “AA” Rating by MSCI for the 3rd the Americas Award of
GEI1 consecutive year FINTECH AMERICAS
Updated SUSTAINABILITY
Publication of EQUATOR
STRATEGY for 2023 - 2025
PRINCIPLES ANNUAL
BEST RETAIL BANK (Banorte) for REPORT 2022
the 4th year, BEST CORPORATE
GOVERNANCE (Banorte) for the 4th Submission of the 2023
year and BEST PENSION FUND AMAFORE ESG questionnaire
(Afore XXI Banorte) for the 7th year, in
Mexico, by WORLD FINANCE
Asset Class
Loan book evaluation under Equator Principles Responsible Investments – Pension Funds
Number of analyzed projects % of total analyzed AUMs by instrument
3. As of 1Q23, card operating expenses are recorded in "Interchange Fees" within Fees Paid (formerly in Administrative Expenses). For comparison purposes, figures for 2022 were reclassified.
4. As of 1Q23, the Expected Credit Loss of the Insurance and Annuities financial instruments portfolio are recorded in Trading Income (formerly in Other Income). For comparison purposes, figures for 2022 were reclassified
Stock Price (Pesos) 112.17 151.90 141.21 (7%) 26% 112.17 141.21 26%
P/BV (Times) 1.40 1.76 1.70 (3%) 21% 1.40 1.70 21%
Market Capitalization (Million Dollars) 16,065 23,306 23,762 2% 48% 16,065 23,762 48%
Market Capitalization (Million Pesos) 323,437 437,997 407,173 (7%) 26% 323,437 407,173 26%
Exchange Rate Peso/Dolar 20.13350 18.79370 17.13580 -9% -15% 20.02235 17.96475 -10%
8,000 (4bn)
6,150
6,000 5,602
4,000
2,153 (4bn)
2,000
-
2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23
108%
210%
106%
104% 190% 177%
104% 170%
170%
102% 155%
99%
100% 150%
90% 70%
1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 2Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 2Q
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Vs. Total
Loans 2Q23
Housing 1.4%
Restaurants 0.2%
Airports 0.0%
• Including traditional, clean energy and suppliers
Insurance P&L
+ Annuities P&L = Insurance & Annuities P&L
Premium
Revenue
Premium Premium
Revenue Revenue
Claims
∆
∆
= Technical Non-Interest = ∆
Technical Non-Interest Non-Interest
Result Income Income = Technical Result
Result Claims Income
Claims
Acquisition
Technical costs
Reserves
Technical Technical
Reserves Reserves
Acq. Cost
If you have any information request or comments, please contact Banorte's Investor Relations Department at:
Tel: (52) 55 1670 2276
E-mail: investor@banorte.com
You can access our quarterly and annual reports (in Spanish and English) and other informative materials at :
investors.banorte.com
Disclaimer
Grupo Financiero Banorte does not warrant that the document is accurate, complete, reliable, fit for any particular purpose and does not accept liability for any act (or
decision not to act) resulting from the use of this document and related data. The information contained in this document is illustrative and informative so it should not be
considered as an advice and/or recommendation of any kind. Grupo Financiero Banorte is not part of any party or political trend.
GDP
(% y/y)
-8.1 4.8 3.1 3.0 1.8
Inflation
(% y/y)
3.2 7.4 7.8 4.5 4.1
Exchange rate
USD/MXN
19.91 20.53 19.50 17.90 19.20
28-day TIIE
(%)
4.48 5.72 10.77 11.45 9.50
Mexbol
(points)
44,066 53,272 48,464 59,000 67,000
2023 GDP: Demand Employment: INEGI (general) and IMSS (formal sector)
% y/y nsa, % q/q sa Millions
62 25
% y/y 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 2023
58 INEGI (left axis) IMSS (right axis)
GDP 3.8 3.6 2.8 1.8 3.0
54
Consumption 4.8 4.0 3.9 2.8 3.9 20
50
Investment 15.2 14.5 14.1 5.6 12.2
Goverment 46
1.3 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.7
spending 42 15
Exports 0.0 0.6 -0.1 -0.6 0.0 Jan-17 Aug-18 Apr-20 Nov-21 Jul-23
Imports 8.6 7.9 5.3 5.7 6.8 Investment
% q/q Index 100 = July 2018
114
GDP 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.0 -- 106
+14.0%
98
2023 2024 90
82
+32.0%
74
2.0 2.3 66
58
3.0 1.8 Jun-17 Dec-18 Jun-20 Dec-21 Jun-23
Note: Underlined figures indicate forecasts
Source: INEGI, Banorte
Economic activity level in 2Q23 vs. the most recent peak State activity level in 1Q23 vs. the most recent peak
(3Q18) (3Q18)
%, using seasonally adjusted figures %, seasonally adjusted figures
Tabasco 143.1
Mass media 139.9 Oaxaca 114.0
Corporate services 137.0 Baja California 109.1
Chihuahua 107.0
Entertainment 121.6 Chiapas 104.6
Professional services 121.6 Jalisco 104.4
Michocán 104.1
Agriculture 109.1 Sonora 104.1
Healthcare 108.8 Quintana Roo 104.0
Nuevo León 103.1
Retail sales 108.3 San Luis Potosí 102.4
Real-estate services 107.7 Nayarit 102.2
Guanajuato 102.2
Transport 106.3 Hidalgo 102.1
Mining 105.8 Yucatán 101.8
Tamaulipas 101.5
Manufacturing 105.8 Zacatecas 101.4
Wholesales 103.6 Sinaloa 101.4
Baja California… 101.2
Education 102.6 Veracruz 100.0
Financial services 101.4 Tlaxcala 99.6
Querétaro 99.4
Construction 101.1 Ciudad de… 99.0
Hotels and restaurants 100.3 Guerrero 98.6
Colima 98.3
Government activities 97.6 Morelos 98.1
Others 92.6 México 97.5
Puebla 96.6
Utilities 74.9 Coahuila 96.2
Business support 32.3 Durango 95.9
Aguascalientes 94.8
Campeche 84.6
0 50 100 150
0 50 100 150
Source: Banorte with data from INEGI
Source: INEGI
20 4.4
3.9 3.8
3.6
10
3.2
2.87 3.0
2.9
2.7
0 2.5
-10 1.7
-20
-30
Jun-18 Apr-19 Feb-20 Dec-20 Oct-21 Aug-22 Jun-23
Source: Banorte
120
13.3% 140
100
90
-15.8%
80 80
Jul-22 Oct-22 Mar-23 Jun-23 Jul-22 Oct-22 Mar-23 Jun-23
Source: Banorte
12
12 11.25
11
10 2022:
10
7.8
8 9
2023: 8.25
6 2024: 8
4.5
4.1
7
4
Headline
6
Core
2
Non-core 5
0 4
-2 3
Dec-21 Jun-22 Dec-22 Jun-23 Dec-23 Jun-24 Dec-24 Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-23 Dec-24
Source: INEGI, Banxico, Banorte
“…these two factors reinforce the convenience of maintaining the monetary policy stance in restrictive territory during the entire planning horizon…”
“…currently it is not prudent to discuss the possibility of cuts in the reference rate and that it must stay at its current level for an extended period…”
Omar Mejía “…timely and decisive actions have allowed it to implement a more gradual tightening cycle than in other emerging economies, but in a more timely manner than in advanced
economies.”
“…since there is a stance consistent with inflation’s convergence and monetary policy operates with lags, the effects of this monetary tightening should be allowed to continue
having an incidence on the economy, which appears to be operating at its potential.”
“…warned that expectations implicit […] anticipate a cycle of cuts […] for 2024 similar to that of an economic crisis scenario, which is not consistent with the expected behavior of
economic activity.”
Galia Borja “…monetary restriction will still require an extended period to be adequately transmitted…”
“…the greater resilience of the economy may suggest a more gradual transmission of monetary policy onto domestic demand…”
“…it is still premature to consider a possible cut, even in the case of a fine-tuning to avoid an overly restrictive stance.”
Jonathan
Heath
“…the forward guidance, the period during which the policy rate will remain in place must still be characterized as extended, as such period may cover the rest of the year.”
“…normalization towards a neutral stance is foreseen beyond the forecast horizon.”
“…considered that the reference rate must still remain at its current level for an extended period.”
Victoria
“…it is essential to continue with a very cautious approach, carefully assessing the outlook for inflation and its determinants…”
Rodríguez
“…there is currently a certain heterogeneity in the decisions made by the monetary authorities...in Mexico […] will continue making its monetary policy decisions based on the […]
Dovish inflation outlook.”
Source: Banxico
500
Representatives
128 Senators
• Slowdown
• Leveraged economies
• Aftermath of the
pandemic
• China – US
• 2024 Elections
• Regionalization
• War in Ukraine
• Persistence of price
pressures
• Monetary policy
divergence
2002 2019
2001
-2 US GDP growth estimates**
% y/y
-4 2023 2024
2009
-6 Banorte 2.0 0.9
1995
56%
Real estate services
US Dependent
Non-US Dependent
Source: Banorte
Source: Banorte
2019
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2021
Average hourly wages Labor productivity in manufacturing Annual GDP growth expectation for
US$ in nominal terms Index 100 = 2013 the next 10 years
8 40 % y/y
Mexico (LHS) 105
China (LHS) 4.5
6 30 100
US (RHS)
95 3.5
4 20
90
2 10 2.5
85 2.0
0 0 80 1.5
2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 3Q05 1Q09 3Q12 1Q16 3Q19 1Q23 Aug-13 Aug-15 Aug-17 Aug-19 Aug-21 Aug-23
Source: Banorte with data from Banxico, INEGI, FRED, Chinese Statistics Bureau
Female Male
Source: Banorte with data from INEGI, US Census Bureau and WEF 2015
2022
2023
Mexico: Non-oil exports to the US: Top five goods imported from US: Vehicle imports by country
world* Mexico % of total vehicle imports (yearly figures)
US$ billion, 2015 constant prices (monthly US$ billion, nominal terms (yearly figures) 60
figures, sa) 120 Mexico Canada China
Vehicles
45
50
40 Engines, motors, boilers,
etc.
35 Appliances, electric 40
80
30 equipment, etc.
Oil
25 30
Projectors, surgical
20
instrments, etc. 20
40
15
10 10
5
0 0
0
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
2016
2019
2022
2019
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
2016
2022
1980 1988 1996 2005 2013 2022
*Lines indicate a statistically significant structural change in the time series
Source: Banorte with data from INEGI, Banxico, BEA and US Census Bureau
59.2
60.5
141.3
99.2
Source: US Census
Mexico: Exports to US
US$ billion, 2022
52.2
73.1
20.6
53.2
29.2
27.8 75.8
Chihuahua 9.1
Tamaulipas 8.5
Coahuila 8.2
Sonora 8.1
Querétaro 7.8
Jalisco 7.7
Guanajuato 7.6
Source: Banorte
4,700
Forecast Year Observed Original model
4,200 Fitted 2020 1.1 2.1
Observed
2021 -8.6 -7.8
3,700
2022 2.1 1.1
3,200 2023* 5.7 (until July) 5.4
2024** 5.7
2,700
Banking Credit Forecast Model
2,200
⚫ Different adjustment variables were tested (e.g. GDP, interest
1,700
rate TIIE, industrial activity, remittances, etc.) and it was found
that the best adjustment is seen with the one-year-lag for
1,200 GDP.
700 ⚫ This implies that a relatively robust forecast can be made for
banking credit one year ahead, while internal estimates can be
2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023
used for two years.
Note: *Observed GDP growth in 2022. ** For 2024, we assume our 3.0% forecast in 2023
Source: Banorte with INEGI and Banxico data
Bancrea
Banorte
Barclays
ABC Capital
Monex
Banamex
Banregio
Banco Azteca
Credit Suisse
Afirme
Sabadell
BanCoppel
Scotiabank
CIBanco
Bansí
0
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023
Source: Banxico, CNBV, Banorte with data as of May 23
Source: IMF