Professional Documents
Culture Documents
BTG Pactual
Constellation Ch
allenge 2021
B u ys u p p o r t e d by three m
ain theses
01 Fin a n c ia l
De e pe 02 Dig ital
R e ta i l 03 P a r tn e r s
h ip M od e l
n in g U n it
Blue Ocean for Investor’ Side: Wealth
Capital M arkets
Industry: BTG at a
Development Glance
Wholesaling Reallocation A New Era
LatAm’s largest Investment Bank is heading into digital
retail
BTG Pactual has over 30 years of experience in wholesaling. The next step of the journey is retail.
revenues % BTG+
Investment 14 Transactional Bank
Banking
% Launched in 2020
Client-fee
Businesses
Asset Management 10 BTG+
33% of % business
revenues
Wealth Management 9 SME Lending
Source
%
+ Non-Core
Launched in 2020
s
19% 3
FINANCIAL DEEPENING DIGITAL PARTNERSHIP ESG
BTG is the best surfer
to ride this wave
Digit Financial
al
Deepening
P artners
hip
Capital Blue Ocean for Investor’ Wealth
M arkets Wholesaling Side: Industry:
Development Reallocation A New Era
United 14%
States
South 10%
Korea 61.2 183.5
France 10% 29.7
Indi 3% (84.4)
a
Brazi
Brazil 2%
3% ~5% in 2020
l Capital markets replaced direct
Indonesi 1% loans
a 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 1H20
2017 2018 2019
Sources McKinsey, 1H20
Anbima
PARTNERSHIP ESG 5
FINANCIAL DIGITA VALUATIO
Capital Blue Ocean for Investor’ Wealth
M arkets Wholesaling Side: Industry:
Development Reallocation A New Era
United 14%
States
14.1
South 10%
Korea
France 10% 323.8 325.8
United Kingdom 8%
Singapor 8% 89.9
11.5 119.4
e
China 7%
201.1
German 6% 172.7 10.9
y
Chile 6%
122.0 40.1
Thailand 4%
94.3 91.8 233.9 206.3
15.4
Philippines 3% 190.2
18.0 10.1 8.0
Indi 3% 132.6
a
106.6
76.3 81.7
Brazi
Brazil 2%
3% ~5% in 2020
l
Indonesi 1%
a 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
94%
47% Lead
Coordinator
Seniority
84%
Role
31% 32%
Market
79% Shar
6%
e
Santander Bradesco Ita BT
BTG
ú G
Sources Dealogic, Company
Filings
PARTNERSHIP ESG 7
FINANCIAL DIGITA VALUATIO
Capital Markets Blue Ocean Investor’ Wealth
Development for Side: Industry:
Wholesaling Reallocation A New Era
94%
47% Lead
Coordinator
Seniority
84%
Role
31% 32%
Market
79% Shar
6%
e
Santander Bradesco Ita BT
BTG
ú G
Sources Dealogic, Company
Filings
PARTNERSHIP ESG 8
FINANCIAL DIGITA VALUATIO
Capital Blue Ocean Investor’ Wealth
Markets for Side: Industry:
Development Wholesaling Reallocation A New Era
30
800
25
600
20
400
15
10
200 2016 BTG Market Share 2020
0 100 200 400 500
300
2.6% 6.8%
800
# of ECM Mandates
30
600
25
20 400
201 2020
9 BTG’s Large O w es Rec eivables
Supplier Corporate Client
SME
R$ 53.6 R$ 107.2
bn bn Finances the
receivables
2019 2020
BTG’s Large Owes Receivables Supplier
Corporate Client SME
Sources Company
Filings
PARTNERSHIP ESG 12
FINANCIAL DIGITA VALUATIO
Capital Blue Ocean Investor’ Wealth
Markets for Side: Industry:
Development Wholesaling Reallocation A New Era
15,000
10,000
14.18 19.7
5,000
10.9
-
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
9.2 6.4
7.8
1.9 100
1.4
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Interest over
time 51
“It doesn't matter if the interest rate is 8.5% or 5.0%, this level “Investimentos”
is enough to promote enormous sophistication in the 24
capital market, with new management styles and new asset
classes”
Jan-12 Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan-20 Jan-
– André Esteves 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 21
Sources Anbima, Valor Econômico, Google
Trends
PARTNERSHIP ESG 13
FINANCIAL DIGITA VALUATIO
Capital Blue Ocean Investor’ Side: Wealth Industry:
Markets for Reallocation A New Era
Development Wholesaling
30.3
101
77.5
HNWIs are pushing
56.8 30.7 AuM. Only in 2020, HNWI
83.9
15 assets grew 43% YoY…
37.9
44.7 66.8
12.3 ...but how does BTG
12.2 114.4
34.1
10.2 create an attractive
10.1 11.3
9.4 environment for HNWIs?
80
55.3
41.4
Sources
Anbima
PARTNERSHIP ESG 14
FINANCIAL DIGITA VALUATIO
Capital Blue Ocean Investor’ Wealth
Markets for Side: Industry: A
Development Wholesaling Reallocation New Era
Private Banking positioning: a valuable asset for
BTG
Private Bank clients demand sophisticated and ...which makes reputation a core asset, enhancing the
personalized products... advantage of being recognized as a tier one serivce
High Inc.
M ore than 15 awards
13.5% 44.6% 3.2% 38.6%
Retail in
wealth management
Traditional Retail 69.6% 17.0% 13.0%
Exclusive Open
Funds; Funds; Brazil’s Best PB Services Overall,
49.50% 50.50%
2020
1s
Private Banking 38% 2% 59% t 2nd
3rd
13.0%
A winner strategy
in digital retail
D ig ital
P artners
hip
Retail Getting the Clients: Core-Digital
Disruption most out of Ecosystem Synergies
IFAs Stickiness
17% partner
17.0
Mkt.
Share13.6
365.7 Brazil is likely to experience
9.3
the same IFA offices
7.7 expansion as:
231. Publicly listed Firms that focus on
6.6 9
offices consolidating IFA
144.5 market
80.3
17% partner
Mkt. Share
17.0
80.3
Sources Ancord, Company Filings, CVM, Bloomberg, Our
Analysis
DIGITAL PARTNERSHIP ESG 24
FINANCIAL VALUATIO
Retail Getting the Clients: Core-Digital
Disruption most out of Ecosystem Synergies
IFAs Stickiness
talked to 39 IFA
5th
offices… 22
offices
16
offices
...However, only 9% considered the possibility
of 1 office
becoming a broker a long-term goal
9%
Sources Field
Research
DIGITAL PARTNERSHIP ESG 26
FINANCIAL VALUATIO
Retail Getting the Clients: Ecosystem Core-Digital
Disruption most out of Stickiness
IFAs Synergies
talked to 39 IFA
5th
offices… 22
offices
16
offices
...However, only 9% considered the possibility
of 1 office
becoming a broker a long-term goal
What is the main strategy
9% 91
% for
Sources Field
expanding BTG Digital then?
Research
DIGITAL PARTNERSHIP ESG 27
FINANCIAL VALUATIO
Retail Getting the Clients: Core-Digital
Disruption most out of Ecosystem Synergies
IFAs Stickiness
Sophisticated IFAs
Meet Corporate Explore Better-
sophisticated HNWI
certified
Standard
IFAs
Focus on broad Aims to expand Focus on distributing
income the customer investment
ranges base products
Sources Field
Research
DIGITAL PARTNERSHIP ESG 28
FINANCIAL VALUATIO
Retail Getting the Clients: Core-Digital
Disruption most out of Ecosystem Synergies
IFAs Stickiness
Sophisticated
IFAs
Meet
sophisticated Corporate Explore Better-certified
HNWI Service Cross-sell professionals
demands
Standard
IFAs
Focus on broad Aims to expand Focus on distributing
income the customer investment
ranges base products
Sources Field
Research
DIGITAL PARTNERSHIP ESG 29
FINANCIAL VALUATIO
Retail Getting the Clients: Core-Digital
Disruption most out of Ecosystem Synergies
IFAs Stickiness
Sophisticated
IFAs
Meet
sophisticated Corporate Explore Better-certified
HNWI Service Cross-sell professionals
demands
Sophisticated
IFAs
Meet
sophisticated Corporate Explore Better-certified
HNWI Service Cross-sell professionals
demands
We found
Products that
4 main
matter when
Technology
choosing a
factors
Much greater Concentrate a large
broker part of the
Relationships added value for market's assets in
BTG Pactual a small number of
Customer value proposition IFAs
Sources Field
Research
DIGITAL PARTNERSHIP ESG 31
FINANCIAL VALUATIO
Retail Getting the Clients: Core-Digital
Disruption most out of Ecosystem Synergies
IFAs Stickiness
Products
13%
Technology However...
27% 23%
86% of the advisors
50% 62% interviewed believe
that both product
64% 66% and technology will
38% 32%
become commodities
in the near future
9% 11%
According to BTG IFAs According to XP According to BTG According to XP
IFAs IFAs IFAs
Sources Field
Research
DIGITAL PARTNERSHIP ESG 32
FINANCIAL VALUATIO
Retail Getting the Clients: Core-Digital
Disruption most out of Ecosystem Synergies
IFAs Stickiness
Greater service
offerings to clients The result? BTG is much more efficient
Advisor (IFA)
at
capturing cross-sell opportunities
Sophisticated IFAs
Fintechs
Products
Advisory, Wealth Management, Credit for Despite a smaller portfolio of products, focus
Large Retail
X
SMEs
and HNWIs and on clients
other needs
Banks
`
82
(312) (186) digital
BTG Pactual
digit al
82
(312) (186)
BTG Pactual
DIGITAL
Much wider product portfolio
RETAIL
UNIT
Investments Credit IB solutions Advisory
ECOSYSTEM
SWITCHING COSTS
LOW Transactional Bank
Transactional Bank No relationship Lower cash
ties with a volume to be
manager transfered
digital HIGH
Broker
SM E Lending
Sources Our
Analysis
DIGITAL PARTNERSHIP ESG 46
FINANCIAL VALUATIO
Retail Getting the Clients: Core-Digital
Disruption most out of Ecosystem Synergies
IFAs Stickiness
ECOSYSTEM
SWITCHING COSTS: Create ecosystem
stickiness 1
Enters through lower switching costs-platform:
LOW BTG+
Transactional Bank
2 Finds himself in a layer in which migration is more
costly
than the one through which he entered: BTG Digital
digital HIGH 3
Customer stickiness is generated
Broker
SM E Lending
Sources Our
Analysis
DIGITAL PARTNERSHIP ESG 47
FINANCIAL VALUATIO
Retail Getting the Clients: Core-Digital
Disruption Ecosystem Synergies
most out of IFAs Stickiness
Core
DRU
Business
Sources Our
Analysis
DIGITAL PARTNERSHIP ESG 48
FINANCIAL VALUATIO
Financ ial Deep
ening
Digit Partnership
al
1989
Banking
License
1
9
9
0
2011
Retail Exposure
- (Banco Pan) 201
LatAm
2
2 Expansion
0 2016 -
0 2020
5 Digital Retail
Core Unit
Activities Creation
...became an industry leader with global
Expansion
penetration
Sources Company Filings 50
FINANCIAL DIGITA PARTNERSHIP ESG VALUATIO
Key to the Inside the Perpetuating No Digital
Past Partnershi the Culture DNA,
Success p No Problem
1990 - 2005
Core
Activities Integrated Business Units
Expansion
2011
Retail Exposure
(Banco Pan) 201 Lean, efficient structure
LatAm
2
Expansion
2016 -
2020
Digital Retail
Unit
Creation
...became an industry leader with global
penetration
Sources Company Filings 51
FINANCIAL DIGITA PARTNERSHIP ESG VALUATIO
Key to the Inside the Perpetuating No Digital
Past Partnershi the Culture DNA,
Success p No Problem
ROE, which
averaged
16.0% 15
years%
in the last four
14.1%
12.9%
11.0%
12.9% 2017:
2Q17 average
11.0% Mkt. Cap to Book
1Q1
7
3Q1
7
1Q1
8
Sources Company Filings, Brazil
3Q1
8
1Q1
9
3Q1
9
1Q2
0
3Q20
0.73x
Journal
PARTNERSHIP ESG 54
FINANCIAL DIGITA VALUATIO
Key to the Inside the Perpetuating No Digital
Past Partnershi the Culture DNA,
Success p No Problem
256
averaged
16.0% 15 67.8
241 75.3
237
65.5 66.1 63.3
years%
in the last four
14.1%
230
12.9%
11.0%
1Q1 3Q1 1Q1 3Q1 1Q1 3Q1 1Q2 3Q20 201 201 201 201 201 2020
7 7 8 8 9 9 0 5 6 7 8 9
Sources Company
Filings
PARTNERSHIP ESG 55
FINANCIAL DIGITA VALUATIO
Key to the Inside the Perpetuating No Digital
Past Partnershi the Culture DNA,
Success p No Problem
What is the main incentive regarding partners As a result, cross-selling allows for healthy,
compensation? homogeneous long-term growth
The whole Revenue by Business Unit, R$ mn
cake Investment banking Corporate lending S&T Asset management Wealth management
6,000
27
%
5,000
4,000 10
%
…and not just 3,000
26
the 2,000
%
slice 1,000
53
-
2017 2018 2019 2020
%
Sources Company
Filings
PARTNERSHIP ESG 56
FINANCIAL DIGITA VALUATIO
Key to the Inside the Perpetuating No Digital
Past Partnershi the Culture DNA,
Success p No Problem
13%
“In the long-run, the A super qualified team from the start...
André Esteves Roberto ti
success of a Partnership Antonio Porto Sallou James
depends on sticking to Marcelo Kalim Oliveira Pérsio
meritocracy. Emmanuel Arida
[…] It is all about Hermann 2008
Controllers
human capital”* …and an exceptional choice of
new
partners…
André Esteves Roberto Sallouti
Antonio Porto Renato Santos
Guilherme 2021
Paes Controllers
Eduard
o
Guardia
We had a conversation with a major
international
Alessandr bank’s Vice Chairman, in which he said:
o “BTG is well regarded by those who do not
Farkuh
want to be in a rigid and bureaucratic
place, which is why it attracts great
people as partners”
Man uet
s o
Almeida
Will
Lander
s
A telecom
guru
Sources Company Filings, Youtube Video featuring Amos Genish: “Crescimento do segmento digital em
bancos”
PARTNERSHIP ESG 63
FINANCIAL DIGITA VALUATIO
Key to the Inside the Perpetuating No Digital
Past Partnershi the Culture DNA, No
Success p Problem
The franchise has spread to many markets. How will it break into the
digital?
Amos However, incumbent banks lack the digital mindset
Genish that
fintechs enjoy…
Head of Digital Retail
Unit
“Consumers expect from their ...and ambitions aren’t
banks the same experience modest:
they have with FAAMG” 6th largest 1st option 4.5 million
retail bank in of IFAs and customers in
Brazil Investors 2023
A telecom
guru
They don’t have the digital DNA.
But they have the entrepreneur one.
E SG
Digit
Does BTG adopt the
al best
business practices?
P artners
hip
Environmental, Social, and Corporate
Governance
How aligned is BTG with the best business
practices? We ranked multiple companies through
an original index to assess how aligned
they are with generating stakeholder
value
Current Efforts
We
Grades from 1 - 3:
compare:
The company’s current 5 Environmental criteria
efforts regarding the 7 Social criteria
best business practices 5 Governance criteria
Index
Rationale
Our view on future Future Commitment
commitment with an Grades from 1 - 3:
ESG agenda
Clear
goals ESG
Evolution Benchmarks
Managem
ent
Sources Companies Annual Reports, Self awareness
Elaboration
PARTNERSHIP ESG 66
FINANCIAL DIGITA VALUATIO
Environmental, Social, and Corporate
Governance
How aligned is BTG with the best business
practices? We ranked multiple companies through
an original index to assess how aligned
they are with generating stakeholder
2.8 value
2.6 NTCO3
Commitment with future agenda
XP
2.4
Financials &
Digit
Valuation
al
How do our theses
translate into numbers?
P artners
hip
Business Business Unit: Financial SOTP
Unit: Core DRU Indicators Valuation
Business
Core Business highlights: cross-selling is likely to drive CL and IB
revenue
Corporate Lending main assumption: 4.1x book leverage A closer relationship to large corporates is the most relevant
by 2025 due to a growing base of unsecured funding driver for future IB revenue, generating market share gains
6.3
Yields
2.3
209.7
Large Companies: 5.1
2
2.5% .
SME: 4.1 1
168.9 23.9%
6.4% 3.3
1.9
2.6
135.3 21.7%
1.8
14.9%
109.7 19.5%
4.1x Book 1.8
89.7 17.3% 1.6 14.4%
2025E
73.7 15.1%
12.9%
1.3 13.9%
1
3
.
5
%
2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 13.4%
Sources Our
Analysis 13.2%
PARTNERSHIP ESG 69
FINANCIAL DIGITA VALUATIO
Business Business Unit: Financial SOTP
Unit: Core DRU Indicators Valuation
Business
Core Business highlights: cross-selling is likely to drive CL and IB
revenue
Corporate Lending main assumption: 4.1x book leverage A closer relationship to large corporates is the most
by 2025 due to a growing base of unsecured funding relevant
driver for future IB revenue, generating market share gains
SME Lending CL Revenue ,R$ bn IB Revenue, R$ ECM Market Share DCM Market
CL Portfolio Volume , R$ bn
bn Share
6.3 2.3
Yields
209.7 2.1
Large Companies: 5.1
2.5% 1.9
14.9%
SME: 4.1 1.8
168.9 23.9%
6.4% 3.3 1.6 14.4%
2.6
135.3 21.7%
1.8 1.3 13.9%
2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
Sources Our
Analysis
PARTNERSHIP ESG 70
FINANCIAL DIGITA VALUATIO
Business Business Unit: Financial SOTP
Unit: Core DRU Indicators Valuation
Business
We discount S&T revenue growth due to insertion in
retail
2020 was an excellent year, but we expect even greater How do we forecast sales
revenues from 2023 onwards
and trading revenue?
Sales and Trading Revenue, R$ bn
We take the average guidance for quarterly revenue…
10% CAGR Quarterly S&T Revenue, R$ mn
4.0
450 600 850
3.6
From 1Q20 Conference Call
3.4
...then we think of an annual growth rate as
3.1 3.1
2.8
Equity Growth Rate
33.5% of
Total 4.5% discount on growth
Revenues
16%
180 Average take-rate
114
13% 0.72%
66 10% or 1.13% before IFA
7% expenses
Sources Our
Analysis
PARTNERSHIP ESG 72
FINANCIAL DIGITA VALUATIO
Business Business Financial SOTP
Unit: Unit: Indicators Valuation
Core DRU
Business
BTG+ will reach 4.8 million customers and R$900 million annual
profit
We use a bottom-up approach to estimation, starting from the expected
number of clients that BTG + should reach
#Clients
2.3
76.9
2.2
2.2
1.1% Net Interchange
2.2
2.1
2.1 51.2
26.2
2.0
10% BTG+ Premium Penetration
Sources Our
Analysis
PARTNERSHIP ESG 73
FINANCIAL DIGITA VALUATIO
Business Business Financial SOTP
Unit: Unit: Indicators Valuation
Core DRU
Business
How does BTG look like five years from
now?
Revenue, R$ bn 26.0 2020 2025
Investment
7.3%
E
Banking
Corporate lending (Ex-
Non-Core 15.7% 12.0%
Business) Sales and trading 22.9% 3.9%
22. 1.2%
Asset CAGR
management
Wealth 0 8.8%
Digital Retail Unit:
management Digital
18. 3.8%
BTG +
5 10.5% 29.4%
BTG BTG BTG +
BTG + Business + Digital Business
Principal
15. 7.7% 13.2% 8.5%
8%
Core Business:
investments
Participations
Interest and
3
other 12.
3
14%
58.6%
9.3
Capital
48% 30%
16%
Intensive
9%
10%
Business
15%
32%
Client fee
33% 29%
16% Business
11%
14%
10.2
43.5% 50%
8.7
41.9%
12.2
41.1% 40% 40% 40% 40% 40%
40.6%
40.0% 10.1
6.4 39.3%
8.4
7.5 6.7
5.3
5.3
3.8
4.2
2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
Sources Our
Analysis
PARTNERSHIP ESG 75
FINANCIAL DIGITA VALUATIO
Business Business Financial SOTP
Unit: Unit: Indicators Valuation
Core DRU
Business
We also believe in improvements regarding efficiency and bottom
lines
Efficiency Ratio: the bank will gain significant efficiency due Expenses control + Diminishing need of reinvestments in
to an asset light expansion the
long-term = higher payout ratio in perpetuity
OpEx, R$ bn and Efficiency Ratio Net Income, R$ bn and Dividend Payout
Ratio Payout Ratio
2025 – 2030: 50%
Perpetuity: 60%
Asset-light expansion
is c ost-efficient
1 2,000
10.2
43.5% 50%
8.7
41.9%
12.2
41.1% 40% 40% 40% 40% 40%
40.6%
40.0% 10.1
6.4 39.3%
8.4
7.5 6.7
5.3
5.3
3.8
4.2
2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
Sources Our
Analysis
PARTNERSHIP ESG 76
FINANCIAL DIGITA VALUATIO
Business Business Financial SOTP
Unit: Unit: Indicators Valuation
Core DRU
Business
The result: attractive returns combined with a healthy balance
sheet
As a consequence of an asset-light expansion and ... and a healthy balance sheet with highly comfortable levels
DRU scallability, we forecast attractive ROAA and of
ROAE... capitalization
Basel Index
ROAE ROAA
Tier I Tier II
17.6 17.4
17.1 17.4 17.0
16.7 % %
% % 1.4% %
% 1.7% 1.1% 0.9%
2.1%
2.6%
25.9%
24.2%
22.6%
20.8%
19.2%
17.6%
16.3% 16.1%
15.7% 16.2%
14.1% 15.0%
2.4% 2.4%
1.9% 2.2% 2.3%
2.0%
2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
Sources Our
Analysis
PARTNERSHIP ESG 77
FINANCIAL DIGITA VALUATIO
Business Business Financial SOTP
Unit: Unit: Indicators Valuation
Core DRU
Business
SOTP valuation: R$ 154.2 price target with a 52%
upside
After all, how much is
BPAC11 worth? We believe in an upside of 52%
Our Sum of The Parts Valuation
general: R$ 101.9
Ke =
11.92% R$ 101.5
g (Perpetuity) = 7.00%
Resulting from assuming a ROE
of
17.5% and payout ratio of 60%
in
perpetuity (2030)
Sources Our
Analysis
PARTNERSHIP ESG 78
FINANCIAL DIGITA VALUATIO
Business Business Financial SOTP
Unit: Unit: Indicators Valuation
Core DRU
Business
We see BPAC11 as a unique growth story for Brazilian
banks
Fwd
12.0
2021
XP
BIDI1
1
10.0
BPAC11 trades similarly
incumbent
to banks...
STNE
8.0 LPLA
P/ BV 6.0
...despite a much more
attractive
4.0 growth story...
BPAC1
SCHW
1
Challenger
2.0 JPM ITUB4 SANB1 Incumbent
MS
UBS GS
1
... leading us to believe that
BAC
CS
BBDC4
the stock is
0.0
2.0 7.0 12.0 17.0 22.0 27.0 32.0 37.0 underpriced
ROE,
Sources Bloomberg, Our %
Analysis
PARTNERSHIP ESG 79
FINANCIAL DIGITA VALUATIO
Would you be a BTG Pactual
shareholder?
Yes
!
Q&A
MCA Capital
Millions of 7.2
accounts
4
In order to maintain the pace of
growth, the competition to
increase product offerings and
loyalty becomes more fierce
jan/ 20 oct/20
jan/ 20 oct/20
What made you change platforms? (in the case of those who migrated)
How was the migration process? How many percent migrated in the first
few months? (in the case of those who migrated)
Sources Field 85
IFAs migration: Our estimates
Sophisticated IFAs
Closer relationship
with clients Avg. 82% of AuC
migrated in the first months
after (based on 7 IFAs
Quantity of services experience)
offered
Common IFAs
Sources Field 86
IFAs: geographical distribution
Sources 87
Case Study: Tangerine
Comissions on investments, as IFAs It ends up having greater integration with the bank's
traditional Wealth products than the other IFAs, an
employee told us that Advisors is like a “Private Jr”
at BTG
Salaries and banefits, as BTG Good option for those who want to migrate to the
employees IFAs' service model but are not confident enough to
work with advisors outside major banks
Sources Our 90
BTG Digital: take-rate estimation| Appendix
Based on fee data for each type of product, and portfolios for
6.9% 5.7%
9.1% each investor profile, we estimate an average of BTG's Take
FIDC/Deb/ CRI/ CRA 6.9% Rate, considering a rebate in which 60% is for the bank and
% 11.4%
4.1%
40% for the IFA
18.2%
Fixed Income Funds % 11.4% Conservativ M oderate Agressive
13.8%
e Portfolio Portfolio Portfolio
0,78% 0,73% 0,65%
Hedge Funds %
22.9%
4.9
4.5
4.1
377
3.5
3.7
3.4
22%
3.3
268
3.1 19%
40%
3.0 37%
2.8 34% 16%
30% 180
27%
24% 13%
114
2.3
2.0 66 10%
1.7
1.4
1.1 7%
0.9
2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Efficiency Rate Fixed in 50% 2021E, linearly decreasing to 40% Take Rate Fixed in
until 2025E 0.72%
Sources Our 93
Field Research: digital banks| Appendix
Digital Banking Apps: our tests and
conclusions
Sources Field 94
Field Research: digital banks| Appendix
Digital Banking Apps: our tests and
conclusions
700 thousand
users R$120 bi in
What is behind these recent acquisitons?
wallets
consolidated
Acquired by in sep/ 20
Sources Valor 97
The startups bank | Appendix
BTG Pactual: the startups
bank
BTG Pactual How does BoostLAB meet both side needs Startup
simultaneously?
Side
Customer Base Expansion
Side
Boosting Business Expansion
By getting close to the initial stages of The chosen startup, can easily
these startups, BTG can offer initial boost their business with the
services to the company, such as credit support and resources of the
investment bank
Paid in fees for the broker: Paid in fees, int. and additional
R$ 3000/ year or R$ 125 / services:
month R$26.5
M anagement View
4.6
IPO in 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
1999
Sources Company Filings, Our 108
Better Than Goldman? | Appendix
However, the GS partnership grew bloated. Is BTG destined to the
same?
Since the IPO in 1999, Goldman Sachs partnership has
lost its allure, and is now being forced to shrink “To make it special, it’s got to
feel
Partner’ like it’s a high-quality group of
# Profit/Partner people”
Profit
s Pool
Partners
“There has been some creep
1999 US$ 400 mn 220 US$ 1.8 mn over
time”
“Partners don’t retire”
2020 US$ 500 mn 550 US$ 0.9 mn
- As said by a GS employee
More than doubled its size, which
Roberto
Esteves' right-hand man
Sallouti since the beginning of Banker of The Year
Chief Executive
Officer his trajectory 2018
Latin America
Bachelor of Economics
Board Member
at
Intern Partner COO CEO
BTG Pactual
Free
Others Holding Financeira
Float
Ltda.
26.1%
73.9%
Fees (WM/AM)
Wealth Management Investors
Sources Our AnalysisMcKinsey; Middle-office and back-office areas, among others, were omitted for 112
IBD Quality: we proved it!
0.34%
0.23%
S& 2. Gains or losses from its trades with Solid relationship with
T these securities customers across the bank
39%
(core segments
only)
Sources Company 114
Sales and Trading: risk appetite
0.74%
0.71%
BTG
87.2% 88.7% 90.8% 88.7%
77.1%
15.4
Santander 295 55% 3% 21% 20% 1%
Corporate Lending
| Appendix
After a large sale of the credit portfolio in 2015, BTG has By having a longer maturity portfolio than most retail
done an excellent job recovering volume and market banks,
share BTG enjoys very decent yields
Corporate Lending Portfolio Volume, R$ bn Portfolio Maturity and Average Interest Rates
CAGR2016-20: Interest Rates, 10/02/21 - 18/02/21
280% 35% 78 43
1000 % %
Up to 6
600 83.1%
6 to 12
months 20.6%
28.4%
400 10.7% 39.6%
28.8%
37.4%
200 2016 BTG Market 2020 19.9%
35.6%
2.6% Share 6.8 14.1%
More 31.5% 10.4%
%
than 12
6.5%
0 months
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Bradesco Ita BT
BTG Santander
ú G
729
695 BTG Assumes client’s cash flow as collateral. The
1benefits?
Reduced Default
552
Risk
2
501 Which, in turn, allows for lower
provisions
jan/12 jan/ 13 jan/14 jan/15 jan/16 jan/17 jan/18 jan/19 jan/20 jan/21
Low Provisions High Spreads Margin Gains
11.7
8.7
2019
2020 surge was
53,6
pushed by the DRU
4.8
1.9
0.2
2020 107,2
2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
Colombia – since
2012
Bolsa y Renta
1 ~15% of loan
(broker) purchase
Might get its book
banking license 2 ~586 employees,
until 2H21
3Q20
3 ROE:
Chile ~15 – 17%
Colombia ~10 – 15%
Chile – since 2012 Talking to employees from chile and colombia, we
Celfin (broker) purchase had a clear vision: BTG follows the same path it
traced in Brazil, in markets similar to what Brazil
Has every license to operate as was a few years ago. It becomes easier then to
a complete Investment bank apply a well-defined tactic, and this gives us
confidence in the success of the expansion.
Free-float
A High
Incom
e
44,9% 26,8% 28,3%
focus
B
Low
C Incom
e
focus
90% of Unbanked
Amos Genish, Chairman (Head of BTG’s
the D people:
population 50
Board DRU)
members
million
Roberto Sallouti (CEO of
nominated by
BTG Pactual BTG) Sérgio Cutolo
Alexandre Camara
E
Growing Credit
Operation | Appendix
Pan’s revenues rely mostly on two retail businesses, but it More than 80% of Banco Pan’s origination comes from the
already social security retirees (INSS) niche, that should expand as
has a solid track-record in both operations population ages
Loan Book Origination 2030E Brazilian Demographic Pyramid
30-34
Credit Cards
6% 20-24
Pan has a small
market share (1%),
but a growing 10-14
portfolio. It operates
via digital 0-4
distribution and
partnerships. Women Men
Ready-to-Scale Digital
Bank | Appendix
Banco Pan has launched its digital platform in early 2019, and The digital platform has already been responsible for a increase
currently operates in an omnichannel structure focused on in
B2B loan origination, due to reduced costs and better fraud
prevention
Omnichannel structure
Average Monthly Credit Origination
46
Insuranc Digital partners
e 201 201 2019 9M20
7 8
Vehicle Credit
Payroll s Card
Banco Pan
Competition | Appendix
Banco Pan has an edge over other major players, since it does Credit should remain the main client retention tool, a product
not depend on some threatened fee-based income streams in
which Banco Pan has more expertise than any competitor
Fee-based industry comparison
Revenue Digital Banks industry comparison Number
% of Total Main Products Revenue Core
from fees in of Products
(2019)
2019 Revenue (fee- Clients (total)
based) R$ 4,5 bn 6 mn Payroll, Auto
Loans,
R$ 0,4 bn 9%
Credit Credit Card
Operations, Credit Card,
Credit Cards R$ 1,0 7 Investments,
bn mn M ortgage
Cards,
28%
R$ 19 bn
Current Credit Card,
Account R$ 188 3 mn Investments,
Cards, Current mn Current Account
R$ 34 bn 31% Account,
Asset $ 2,8 30 mn Credit
Management bn Card
34% Current
R$ 30 bn Credit Card,
Account, Asset R$ 2,0 3,5
Account Current
Management bn mn
Account
R$ 2,0 bn 27%
Cards,
Current
Insurance
Too Seguros results
Products
Once called Pan Seguros, a
segment of Banco Pan, Too Vehicles
Seguros is an insurance Life
company that provides its 28%
products through partners’ Home equity 26%
retail channels. Financial
16% 500 51
14% 3
40
345 1
Sold Pan Seguros operation in Owns 51% of Too Seguros.
2014 to focus on credit services. 17
DRU have synergies To 15
Still have a deal with Too Seguros 107 118 4
with Seguros, as it may o 1
to provide insurance in its digital
platform. complementary products. offe
r 2017 2018 2019 3Q LTM
Offering credit is Banco Pan main In this sense, BTG may have an
strength, but increasing cross-sell optionality to create an one-stop- Revenue (R$ Net Profit (R$ RoE
in insurance may be a hidden shop platform. mm) mm) (%)
opportunity.
15.5%
Cash flows hedged from oil-price fluctuations
12.9%
8.2%
5.7%
4.9%
4.1%
Loan receivables converted into 50% stake in 2015, curently at 23%
2.3%
1.6%
0.3%
Integrated power generation company using natural gas 1,290
Succesful turnaround, reaching R$1bn profit in 2020, 48% CAGR from 2015
691 730
603 607 587
375
R$4,3bn market value, booked at R$3,7bn 302
1
5
201 201 201 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
7 8 9 E
Digital Retail Unit (Ex-Pan and Too) 625,2 1.801,5 2.849,0 4.110,5 5.634,3 7.482,9
BTG Digital [R$ mi] 290 650 1.062 1.613 2.320 3.211
% of total 3% 5% 7% 9% 11% 12%
BTG+ Business [R$ mi] 303 733 986 1.308 1.723 2.242
% of total 3% 6% 7% 7% 8% 9%
BTG+ [R$ mi] 33 419 801 1.190 1.591 2.030
% of total 0% 3% 5% 6% 7% 8%
We followed the bank's Guidance, from 1Q20, for a quarterly average revenue between R$ 450
and
800 million.
We grow revenue annually at the Equity growth rate minus a 4.5% discount.
We did this because we believe that VaR will be reduced in proportion to Equity, with expansion
to retail, and thus the returns of the Sales and Trading division will not grow in proportion to
Equity.
Our BTG+
Forecasts
Banco
Pan
Banco Pan 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
Income Statement (Highlights)
Net Interest Income [R$ mi] 5.368,1 5.977,2 6.885,6 7.971,8 9.265,9 10.806,9
Provision for Loan Losses [R$ mi] (1.431,4) (1.905,2) (2.194,7) (2.540,9) (2.953,4) (3.444,6)
Other Operating Income [R$ mi] 482,3 514,0 547,7 583,7 622,1 663,0
Administrative Expenses [R$ mi] (2.950,9) (3.273,4) (3.633,2) (4.047,0) (4.518,6) (5.053,9)
Other Expenses [R$ mi] 888,0 791,0 1.030,8 1.335,6 1.713,3 2.184,5
Operational Result [R$ mi] 888,0 791,0 1.030,8 1.335,6 1.713,3 2.184,5
Net Income [R$ mi] 655,6 522,1 680,4 881,5 1.130,8 1.441,8
Net Margin [%] 12,2% 8,7% 9,9% 11,1% 12,2% 13,3%
Obs, included Business Units are: Investment Banking, Corporate Lending, S&T, Asset and Wealth Management
2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
BTG+
| Appendix
Business
BTG+ business yields BTG+ business: a high-spread, low-provision strategy that
assumptions: will
account for 24% of the portfolio by 2024
SME Portfolio Volume and Revenue, R$ bn
SM E Portfolio Volume SM E Lending Revenue 24% of
CL 2 .5
Portfolio
Avg. SME 2.6x (net of
2.3
50.8
1.8
37.3
1.3
Our Assumptions
for: 1.0 26.8
2.5%
Large Corporate 0.7
19.3
SME Yields:
Yields: 2.5 2.6 = 9.5
13.7
% 6.4% 0.3
92.1 101.9
8.6 9.5
6.1 6.8
1.2 1.4
Core BTG BTG+ BTG+ Pan Too Seguros Core BTG BTG+ BTG+ Pan Too Seguros
Digital Business Digital Business
Sources Our 143
Implied and Exit Multilpes | Appendix
Valuation and returns: Implied Multiples and Exit Multiples
(IRR)
Implied Multiples on our SOTP Consolidated Units
valuation IRR
2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
1
Cash flows = Dividends +
E
Target Price (final year)
68x 68x
P/BV Justified
P/BV
10.0
STNE
8.0 LPLA
P/ BV 6.0
y = 0.1422x + 1.6132 What if BTG was on the
regression line?
4.0
It should trade at 4.22x P/BV
BPAC1 then, an even higher multiple
SCHW
1
Challenger than our
JPM ITUB
2.0
4 SANB1 Incumbent implied 4.2x
MS 1
UBS GS
BAC BBDC4 It is clearly not a rigorous
CS
0.0 analysis, but it brings
2.0 7.0 12.0 17.0 22.0 27.0 32.0 37.0 confidence to our
numbers!
ROE,
%
g Payout on perpetuity
52,0% 5,0% 6,0% 7,0% 7,5% 8,0% 60,0% 70,0% 80,0%
52% 40,0% 50,0%
10,92% 58% 72% 94% 110% 131% 10,92% 59% 77% 94% 112% 129%
11,42% 42% 54% 71% 83% 98% 11,42% 41% 56% 71% 86% 100%
Ke 11,92% 29% 38% 52% 61% 72% Ke 11,92% 26% 39% 52% 65% 77%
12,42% 18% 26% 37% 44% 53% 12,42% 15% 26% 37% 48% 59%
12,92% 9% 15% 24% 30% 37% 12,92% 5% 14% 24% 34% 44%
BUY recommendation
stands for multiple
scenarios
Leverage
52% 3,11x 3,61x 4,11x 4,61x 5,11x
33,9% 45% 49% 53% 57% 61%
SME 28,9% 44% 48% 52% 57% 61%
(% of lending) 23,9% 44% 48% 52% 56% 60%
18,9% 44% 48% 51% 55% 59%
13,9% 43% 47% 51% 55% 59%
pandemic
C C3 New issues regarding the bank's credibility can affect the valuation
1
Competition Dynamics Risks
D1 Abrupt changes in the competitive dynamics of credit or wealth
C2 D2 management can happen
C3 D2 Major banks may have a successful strategy in avoiding the
expansion of challengers
Impac
t
Sources Our 149