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MCA Capital

BTG Pactual
Constellation Ch
allenge 2021

Gab riel Gral | P ed ro Jank | Rafael


R ec o m m en d atio n
BUY
Current P ri Target P r
c e 52% UPSID ic e
BRL 101.5 E BRL 154.2

B u ys u p p o r t e d by three m
ain theses

01 Fin a n c ia l
De e pe 02 Dig ital
R e ta i l 03 P a r tn e r s
h ip M od e l
n in g U n it
Blue Ocean for Investor’ Side: Wealth
Capital M arkets
Industry: BTG at a
Development Glance
Wholesaling Reallocation A New Era
LatAm’s largest Investment Bank is heading into digital
retail
BTG Pactual has over 30 years of experience in wholesaling. The next step of the journey is retail.

Core 2020 Revenue Digital Retail


Business Breakdown Unit
Capital Sales and 32 BTG Digital
Intensive Trading Broker
Businesses %
48% of
Corporate Lending 16 Launched in 2016

revenues % BTG+
Investment 14 Transactional Bank
Banking
% Launched in 2020
Client-fee
Businesses
Asset Management 10 BTG+
33% of % business
revenues
Wealth Management 9 SME Lending

Source
%
+ Non-Core
Launched in 2020
s
19% 3
FINANCIAL DEEPENING DIGITAL PARTNERSHIP ESG
BTG is the best surfer
to ride this wave

Digit Financial
al
Deepening

P artners
hip
Capital Blue Ocean for Investor’ Wealth
M arkets Wholesaling Side: Industry:
Development Reallocation A New Era

Underdeveloped capital markets are filling space left by public


banks
Post-recession Brazil had a legacy of sub-penetrated Public banks have since reduced their exposure, leaving room
capital markets, with disproportional public activity for
private capital raising
Financial Depth, % of GDP (2017)
Equity Corporate Bonds FI Bonds Securitized Bonds Brazilian Companies Net Capital Raising, R$ bn
Direct Lending Capital Markets Banking Credit

United 14%
States
South 10%
Korea 61.2 183.5
France 10% 29.7

United Kingdom 8% 77.5 71.9


38.9 80.1
Singapor 8% 37.1
e Direct
114.9 114 130.9
China 7% 85.2 85
Lending 76.3
29.6
German 6%
y
(85.2) (82.2)
Chile 6% (131.1)
(162.2)
Thailand 4%
(13.8)
Philippines 3%

Indi 3% (84.4)
a
Brazi
Brazil 2%
3% ~5% in 2020
l Capital markets replaced direct
Indonesi 1% loans
a 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 1H20
2017 2018 2019
Sources McKinsey, 1H20
Anbima
PARTNERSHIP ESG 5
FINANCIAL DIGITA VALUATIO
Capital Blue Ocean for Investor’ Wealth
M arkets Wholesaling Side: Industry:
Development Reallocation A New Era

Underdeveloped capital markets are filling space left by public


banks
Post-recession Brazil had a legacy of sub-penetrated Lower interest rates drove credit costs to a plunge, and they
capital markets, with disproportional public activity are
likely to remain within a satisfactory range in the future
Financial Depth, % of GDP (2017)
Equity Corporate Bonds FI Bonds Securitized Bonds Capital Issuance in R$ bn, and Credit Cost Index (ICC)
Bonds Issuance Equity Issuance ICC (%)

United 14%
States
14.1
South 10%
Korea
France 10% 323.8 325.8

United Kingdom 8%

Singapor 8% 89.9
11.5 119.4
e
China 7%
201.1
German 6% 172.7 10.9
y
Chile 6%
122.0 40.1
Thailand 4%
94.3 91.8 233.9 206.3
15.4
Philippines 3% 190.2
18.0 10.1 8.0
Indi 3% 132.6
a
106.6
76.3 81.7
Brazi
Brazil 2%
3% ~5% in 2020
l
Indonesi 1%
a 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Sources McKinsey, Anbima,


Bacen
PARTNERSHIP ESG 6
FINANCIAL DIGITA VALUATIO
Capital Markets Blue Ocean Investor’ Wealth
Development for Side: Industry:
Wholesaling Reallocation A New Era

Wholesale focus provides BTG with expertise and operational


excellence
The wholesale activities account for just a fraction in retail Wholesale focus justifies its astonishing numbers for
banks, investment banking market share
while being BTG’s core business
BTG Pactual ECM Roles (by # of Deals), 2020
Wholesale Revenue, % of Total (2020)

94%

47% Lead
Coordinator
Seniority
84%
Role
31% 32%

Market
79% Shar
6%

e
Santander Bradesco Ita BT
BTG
ú G
Sources Dealogic, Company
Filings
PARTNERSHIP ESG 7
FINANCIAL DIGITA VALUATIO
Capital Markets Blue Ocean Investor’ Wealth
Development for Side: Industry:
Wholesaling Reallocation A New Era

Wholesale focus provides BTG with expertise and operational


excellence
The wholesale activities account for just a fraction in retail Wholesale focus justifies its astonishing numbers for
banks, investment banking market share
while being BTG’s core business
BTG Pactual ECM Roles (by # of Deals), 2020
Wholesale Revenue, % of Total (2020)

94%

47% Lead
Coordinator
Seniority
84%
Role
31% 32%

Market
79% Shar
6%

e
Santander Bradesco Ita BT
BTG
ú G
Sources Dealogic, Company
Filings
PARTNERSHIP ESG 8
FINANCIAL DIGITA VALUATIO
Capital Blue Ocean Investor’ Wealth
Markets for Side: Industry:
Development Wholesaling Reallocation A New Era

A smaller credit portfolio highlights a higher-quality


service
2020: Huge presence in # of ECM mandates despite a Although smaller, BTG’s credit portfolio is growing fast and
smaller gaining share
credit portfolio, which is a deal generator
Corporate Lending Portfolio Volume, R$ bn (2020)
# ECM Mandates (2020) and Credit Portfolio Volume, R$ bn
CAGR2016-20:
40
BTG stands out from
this pattern 280% 35% 78%
35 43%
1000
# of ECM Mandates

30
800

25

600

20

400
15

10
200 2016 BTG Market Share 2020
0 100 200 400 500
300
2.6% 6.8%

Sources Dealogic, Company Corporate Lending Portfolio Volume


Filings 0
PARTNERSHIP ESG 9
FINANCIAL DIGITA 2016 2017 2018 VALUATIO
2019
Capital Blue Ocean Investor’ Wealth
Markets for Side: Industry:
Development Wholesaling Reallocation A New Era

A smaller credit portfolio highlights a higher-quality


service
2020: Huge presence in # of ECM mandates despite a Although smaller, BTG’s credit portfolio is growing fast
smaller and
credit portfolio, which is a deal generator gaining share
# ECM Mandates (2020) and Credit Portfolio Volume, R$ bn Corporate Lending Portfolio Volume, R$ bn (2020)
CAGR2016-20:
40
BTG stands out
280% 35% 78 43
from 1000
% %
35 this pattern

800
# of ECM Mandates

30

600
25

20 400

15 200 2016 BTG Market 2020


2.6 Share 6.8%
%
10
0
0 100 200 400 500
300 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Sources Dealogic, Company Corporate Lending Portfolio Volume


Filings
PARTNERSHIP ESG 10
FINANCIAL DIGITA VALUATIO
Capital Blue Ocean Investor’ Wealth
Markets for Side: Industry:
Development Wholesaling Reallocation A New Era

Corporate Lending: more leverage and higher


spreads
BTG’s unsecured funding base doubled in SME Lending: BTG+ business “Risco Sacado” strategy
2020

201 2020
9 BTG’s Large O w es Rec eivables
Supplier Corporate Client
SME
R$ 53.6 R$ 107.2
bn bn Finances the
receivables

BTG assumes client’s cash flow as


collateral. The benefits?
Time and demand deposits = Diversified base implies
cheaper funding less credit risk Low Provisions High Spreads
M
a
r
Sources Company g
Filings
FINANCIAL DIGITA PARTNERSHIP ESG VALUATIO i 11
Capital Blue Ocean Investor’ Wealth
Markets for Side: Industry:
Development Wholesaling Reallocation A New Era

Corporate Lending: more leverage and higher


spreads
BTG’s unsecured funding base doubled in 2020 SME Lending: BTG+ business “Risco Sacado”
strategy

2019 2020
BTG’s Large Owes Receivables Supplier
Corporate Client SME

R$ 53.6 bn R$ 107.2 bn Finances the


receivables

BTG assumes client’s cash flow as collateral. The


benefits?

Time and demand deposits = Diversified base


implies
Low Provisions High Spreads Margin
cheaper funding less credit Gains
risk

Sources Company
Filings
PARTNERSHIP ESG 12
FINANCIAL DIGITA VALUATIO
Capital Blue Ocean Investor’ Wealth
Markets for Side: Industry:
Development Wholesaling Reallocation A New Era

Greater volume and sophistication mark this new


era
Interest rates drop boost the capital markets and surges …meanwhile, there is an increasing search for sophistication
trading volume… and
specific management strategies
Selic Rate (%) vs B3 Avg. Trading Value, R$ bn
# of Investment Funds in Brazil
Average Daily Trading Value,(BRL
R$ bn Selic Rate (%)
Millions) Fixed Income Mutual Funds Hedge Funds Pension Funds Others
37.0
25.63 25,000
20,000

15,000

10,000
14.18 19.7
5,000
10.9
-
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
9.2 6.4
7.8

1.9 100
1.4
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Interest over
time 51
“It doesn't matter if the interest rate is 8.5% or 5.0%, this level “Investimentos”
is enough to promote enormous sophistication in the 24
capital market, with new management styles and new asset
classes”
Jan-12 Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan-20 Jan-
– André Esteves 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 21
Sources Anbima, Valor Econômico, Google
Trends
PARTNERSHIP ESG 13
FINANCIAL DIGITA VALUATIO
Capital Blue Ocean Investor’ Side: Wealth Industry:
Markets for Reallocation A New Era
Development Wholesaling

As for BTG, AUM is being driven by


HNWIs
BTG Assets under Management by Client Mix, R$
bn
HNW Institucional Third Party Corporations Funds Others
I

30.3

101
77.5
HNWIs are pushing
56.8 30.7 AuM. Only in 2020, HNWI
83.9
15 assets grew 43% YoY…
37.9
44.7 66.8
12.3 ...but how does BTG
12.2 114.4
34.1
10.2 create an attractive
10.1 11.3
9.4 environment for HNWIs?
80
55.3
41.4

2017 2018 2019 2020

Sources
Anbima
PARTNERSHIP ESG 14
FINANCIAL DIGITA VALUATIO
Capital Blue Ocean Investor’ Wealth
Markets for Side: Industry: A
Development Wholesaling Reallocation New Era
Private Banking positioning: a valuable asset for
BTG
Private Bank clients demand sophisticated and ...which makes reputation a core asset, enhancing the
personalized products... advantage of being recognized as a tier one serivce

Asset Class Distribution by Segment,


2020
Exclusive Open
Funds; Funds; Brazil’s Best PB Services Overall,
49.50%
50.50
2020
% 1s
Private Banking 38% 2% 59% t 2nd
3rd

High Inc.
M ore than 15 awards
13.5% 44.6% 3.2% 38.6%
Retail in
wealth management
Traditional Retail 69.6% 17.0% 13.0%

Cash/"Poupança" Marketable Securities Structured Fuds/ETF Investment


Funds

Sources Anbima, Company


Filings
PARTNERSHIP ESG 15
FINANCIAL DIGITA VALUATIO
Capital Blue Ocean Investor’ Wealth
Markets for Side: Industry: A
Development Wholesaling Reallocation New Era
Private Banking positioning: a valuable asset for
BTG
Private Bank clients demand sophisticated and ...which makes reputation a core asset, enhancing the
personalized products... advantage of being recognized as a tier one serivce

Asset Class Distribution by Segment, 2020

Exclusive Open
Funds; Funds; Brazil’s Best PB Services Overall,
49.50% 50.50%
2020
1s
Private Banking 38% 2% 59% t 2nd
3rd

M ore than 15 awards


High Inc. Retail 13.5% 44.6% 3.2% 38.6% in
wealth management

Traditional Retail 69.6% 17.0%

13.0%

Sources Anbima, Company


Filings Cash/"Poupança" Marketable Securities Structured Fuds/ETF
PARTNERSHIP ESG 16
FINANCIAL
Investment Funds DIGITA VALUATIO
Capital Blue Ocean Investor’ Wealth
Markets for Side: Industry: A
Development Wholesaling Reallocation New Era
Private Banking: consolidated segment with fierce competition for
bankers
The wealth management industry accounts for R$ 3.6 Fierce competition for senior bankers in PB, as the custody
trillion, of assets is closely linked to their relationship with the client
divided into three main segments
Private Banking Market-Share (jan/2020)
Financial Volume per Segment, R$ bn

Private Banking Private Banking 15%


12%
High Income High barriers to entry 11%
Retail Traditional 1,483 Highly concentrated industry:
Retail Well served and consolidated R$ 1.5 tn incumbents brutally
28% compete for senior
16% bankers
868 High Income Retail
18%
Medium barriers to
645
1,054 entry Other

778 Badly served by traditional “Rouba


banks
502 Monte”
Traditional
Retail
1,164
916 Badly served by traditional banks,
775
but
less demanding
2014 2017 2020

Sources Anbima, Company Filings, Valor Econômico, Brazil


Journal
PARTNERSHIP ESG 17
FINANCIAL DIGITA VALUATIO
Capital Blue Ocean Investor’ Wealth
Markets for Side: Industry: A
Development Wholesaling Reallocation New Era
Doubling down: betting on a huge addressable
market
The wealth management industry accounts for R$ 3.6 By targeting High Income Retail, BTG almost doubles it’s
trillion,
TAM
divided into three main segments
Financial Volume per Segment, R$ Private Banking
bn Private Banking + High Income
Private Banking TAM, 2020 TAM, 2020
Private Banking
High Income High barriers to entry R$ 1.5 tn R$ 2.5
1,483
Retail Traditional
Retail Well served and 74% tn
consolidated TAM increase

868 High Income Retail


Medium barriers to
645
1,054 entry
778 Badly served by traditional
banks
502
Traditional
Retail
1,164
916 Badly served by traditional banks,
775
but
less demanding
2014 2017 2020

Sources Anbima, Company Filings, Valor Econômico, Brazil


Journal
PARTNERSHIP ESG 18
FINANCIAL DIGITA VALUATIO
Capital Blue Ocean Investor’ Wealth
Markets for Side: Industry: A
Development Wholesaling Reallocation New Era
Doubling down: betting on a huge addressable
market
The wealth management industry accounts for R$ 3.6 By targeting High Income Retail, BTG almost doubles it’s
trillion,
TAM
divided into three main segments
Financial Volume per Segment, R$ Private Banking
bn Private Banking + High Income
Private Banking TAM, 2020 TAM, 2020
Private Banking
High Income High barriers to entry R$ 1.5 tn R$ 2.5
1,483
Retail Traditional
Retail Well served and 74% tn
consolidated TAM increase

868 High Income Retail


Medium barriers to
645
1,054 entry
High Income Traditional
778 Badly served by traditional Retail Retail
banks
502
Traditional
BTG reaches 48% of
52%
Retail the retail market by
92%
916
1,164
Badly served by traditional banks, targeting the 8% high-
775
but less demanding 48% income
8% accounts
2014 2017 2020 # of % of retail
accounts investments
Sources Anbima, Company Filings, Valor Econômico, Brazil
Journal
PARTNERSHIP ESG 19
FINANCIAL DIGITA VALUATIO
Financ ial Deep
ening

A winner strategy
in digital retail
D ig ital

P artners
hip
Retail Getting the Clients: Core-Digital
Disruption most out of Ecosystem Synergies
IFAs Stickiness

Independent Financial Advisors suit clients’ needs better than


managers
Investment
Market But what do clients seek from
Dynamics advisors?
Value Chain
1 Wide range of
Offers a wide range of Financial
products
Products
Brokers | Clients
Banks 2 User Experience
Financial Advisors
Bank managers Independent
Financial
Advises clients
3 Close and quality
Advisors (IFAs) advice
Banks: ~ 400
(High Income clients/ manager
Segments)
~ 100
IFAs: clients/advisor

IFAs provide closer advisoy


Sources Our Analysis, Field
Research
DIGITAL PARTNERSHIP ESG 21
FINANCIAL VALUATIO
Retail Getting the Clients: Core-Digital
Disruption most out of Ecosystem Synergies
IFAs Stickiness

Independent Financial Advisors suit clients’ needs better than


managers
Investment
Market But what do clients seek from
Dynamics advisors?
Value Chain
1 Wide range of
Offers a wide range of Financial
products
Products
Brokers | Clients
Banks 2 User Experience
Banks have been losing share to brokers,
following a trend observed in international
markets
Mutual Funds Assets by Distribution Channel, 2018 3 Close and quality
5%
Banks
Channels 38% 35%
Other advice
Banks: ~ 400¹
(High Income clients/manager
Segments)
87% ~ 100
100% 95% IFAs clients/advisor
65%
62% :
13% IFAs provide closer advisoy
UK US FRA IT BRA
A
Sources Our Analysis, Field
Research
DIGITAL PARTNERSHIP ESG 22
FINANCIAL VALUATIO
Retail Getting the Clients: Core-Digital
Disruption most out of Ecosystem Synergies
IFAs Stickiness

IFAs: a central expansion pillar, hampered by


regulation
The major non-bank player is XP Investimentos, which had
its expansion based on a large growth of the IFAs network CVM 497
establishes
Financial Volume per Segment, R$ bn
XP AuC (R$ Bn) Registered IFAs in Brazil (thousands)
No But its likely
possibility of to change.
capitalist What then?
660

17% partner
17.0
Mkt.
Share13.6
365.7 Brazil is likely to experience
9.3
the same IFA offices
7.7 expansion as:
231. Publicly listed Firms that focus on
6.6 9
offices consolidating IFA
144.5 market

80.3

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021


E
Sources Ancord, Company Filings, CVM, Bloomberg, Our
Analysis
DIGITAL PARTNERSHIP ESG 23
FINANCIAL VALUATIO
Retail Getting the Clients: Core-Digital
Disruption most out of Ecosystem Synergies
IFAs Stickiness

IFAs: a central expansion pillar, hampered by


regulation
The major non-bank player is XP Investimentos, which had
its expansion based on a large growth of the IFAs network CVM 497
establishes
Financial Volume per Segment, R$ bn
XP AuC (R$ Bn) Registered IFAs in Brazil (thousands)
No But its likely
possibility of to change.
capitalist What then?
660

17% partner
Mkt. Share
17.0

Brazil is likely to experience


13.6 the same IFA offices
365.7
expansion as:
Publicly listed Firms that focus on
offices consolidating IFA
9.3
market
7.7 231.9
6.6
144.5

80.3
Sources Ancord, Company Filings, CVM, Bloomberg, Our
Analysis
DIGITAL PARTNERSHIP ESG 24
FINANCIAL VALUATIO
Retail Getting the Clients: Core-Digital
Disruption most out of Ecosystem Synergies
IFAs Stickiness

A unique value proposition to catch the big


fish
Mandatory However,
link to brokers
becoming a
broker requires  Acquisition of a
Lower margins significant 49% stake in
for IFAs investments 09/2020
 In the process of
becoming a broker

BTG tackles the IFA office’s will to become a broker

1 White-Label Broker as a Service infrastructure


 Acquisition of stake in
09/2020
2 Support to become a  In the process of being
broker recognized to become
a Securities Distributor
3 Investment, with purchase of a stake in the
(DTVM)
office

Sources Brazil Journal, Valor


Econômico
DIGITAL PARTNERSHIP ESG 25
FINANCIAL VALUATIO
Retail Getting the Clients: Ecosystem Core-Digital
Disruption most out of Stickiness
IFAs Synergies

Who can best tell us about competition for offices? IFAs


themselves
We went “out” on field, and Conversation happened on March

talked to 39 IFA
5th

offices… 22
offices

16
offices
...However, only 9% considered the possibility
of 1 office
becoming a broker a long-term goal
9%

Sources Field
Research
DIGITAL PARTNERSHIP ESG 26
FINANCIAL VALUATIO
Retail Getting the Clients: Ecosystem Core-Digital
Disruption most out of Stickiness
IFAs Synergies

Who can best tell us about competition for offices? IFAs


themselves
We went “out” on field, and Conversation happened on March

talked to 39 IFA
5th

offices… 22
offices

16
offices
...However, only 9% considered the possibility
of 1 office
becoming a broker a long-term goal
What is the main strategy
9% 91
% for
Sources Field
expanding BTG Digital then?
Research
DIGITAL PARTNERSHIP ESG 27
FINANCIAL VALUATIO
Retail Getting the Clients: Core-Digital
Disruption most out of Ecosystem Synergies
IFAs Stickiness

BTG's weapon: attracting sophisticated


IFAs

Sophisticated IFAs
Meet Corporate Explore Better-
sophisticated HNWI
certified

demands Service Cross-sell


professionals

Standard
IFAs
Focus on broad Aims to expand Focus on distributing
income the customer investment
ranges base products

Sources Field
Research
DIGITAL PARTNERSHIP ESG 28
FINANCIAL VALUATIO
Retail Getting the Clients: Core-Digital
Disruption most out of Ecosystem Synergies
IFAs Stickiness

BTG's weapon: attracting sophisticated


IFAs

Sophisticated
IFAs
Meet
sophisticated Corporate Explore Better-certified
HNWI Service Cross-sell professionals
demands

Standard
IFAs
Focus on broad Aims to expand Focus on distributing
income the customer investment
ranges base products

Sources Field
Research
DIGITAL PARTNERSHIP ESG 29
FINANCIAL VALUATIO
Retail Getting the Clients: Core-Digital
Disruption most out of Ecosystem Synergies
IFAs Stickiness

BTG's weapon: attracting sophisticated


IFAs

Sophisticated
IFAs
Meet
sophisticated Corporate Explore Better-certified
HNWI Service Cross-sell professionals
demands

Much greater Concentrate a large


part of the
added value for market's assets in
BTG Pactual a small number of
IFAs
Sources Field
Research
DIGITAL PARTNERSHIP ESG 30
FINANCIAL VALUATIO
Retail Getting the Clients: Core-Digital
Disruption most out of Ecosystem Synergies
IFAs Stickiness

BTG's weapon: attracting sophisticated


IFAs

Sophisticated
IFAs
Meet
sophisticated Corporate Explore Better-certified
HNWI Service Cross-sell professionals
demands

We found
Products that
4 main
matter when
Technology
choosing a
factors
Much greater Concentrate a large
broker part of the
Relationships added value for market's assets in
BTG Pactual a small number of
Customer value proposition IFAs
Sources Field
Research
DIGITAL PARTNERSHIP ESG 31
FINANCIAL VALUATIO
Retail Getting the Clients: Core-Digital
Disruption most out of Ecosystem Synergies
IFAs Stickiness

Which player stands out when it comes to product and


technology?
Which player stands out in each XP > BTG = XP BTG
criterion? BTG > XP

Products
13%
Technology However...
27% 23%
86% of the advisors
50% 62% interviewed believe
that both product
64% 66% and technology will
38% 32%
become commodities
in the near future
9% 11%
According to BTG IFAs According to XP According to BTG According to XP
IFAs IFAs IFAs

The product portfolio is quite XP is still slightly ahead in tech,


similar in scope, with some minor but BTG is getting there
variations

Sources Field
Research
DIGITAL PARTNERSHIP ESG 32
FINANCIAL VALUATIO
Retail Getting the Clients: Core-Digital
Disruption most out of Ecosystem Synergies
IFAs Stickiness

Relationships: open channel between advisors and bank


executives
In our research, we
clearly perceive the
unique
relationship that
BTG maintains with | Conversation happened on 04/03
the IFAs “BTG provides total openness to speak with the Heads of the IBD,
with Sallouti, or whoever we need. For us, this is an important
asset!”
– Marcel Góes, Partner at Cordier
Investimentos

| Conversation happened on 05/03

“BTG is very humble in hearing suggestions to


improve processes and learn from the advisors’
know-how”
– Marcello Popoff, Partner at Lifetime
Investimentos
Sources Field
Research
DIGITAL PARTNERSHIP ESG 33
FINANCIAL VALUATIO
Retail Getting the Clients: Core-Digital
Disruption most out of Ecosystem Synergies
IFAs Stickiness

Access to the investment bank allows for a distinct value


proposition

Fernando, from BlackBridge, told us of a case in


which his client needed corporate solutions, and
he immediately called BTG Pactual:

“ I'm taking a client to the


bank, it would be nice if
André Esteves
attended the
meeting”

The meeting took place on January 5th and Esteves


was present. Today the client is already connected to 3
areas of the bank, and thinking about structuring an
IPO for his company.
Sources Field
Research
DIGITAL PARTNERSHIP ESG 34
FINANCIAL VALUATIO
Retail Getting the Clients: Core-Digital
Disruption most out of Ecosystem Synergies
IFAs Stickiness

By encouraging cross-sell, BTG benefits all stakeholders in the value


chain
In conversations several
Great incentive to advisors reported that there
offer Investment Bank
was little incentive via
services
commission to offer more
Tightens the services
relationship with
the advisor Company
Company

Greater service Less services offered


offerings to clients for the clients by the
Adv sor (IFA) Advisor (IFA) IFA
i

Increase its penetration Closes an important


in door
Invest ent Bank the Middle Market Invest ent Bank to the Middle Market
m m
Sources Our Analysis, Field
Research
DIGITAL PARTNERSHIP ESG 35
FINANCIAL VALUATIO
Retail Getting the Clients: Core-Digital
Disruption most out of Ecosystem Synergies
IFAs Stickiness

By encouraging cross-sell, BTG benefits all stakeholders in the value


chain
Great incentive to In
offer Investment Bank short:
services
Tightens the
relationship with
Company the advisor Robust Bank Open Channel Offering the
Structure with the IFAs right incentives

Greater service
offerings to clients The result? BTG is much more efficient
Advisor (IFA)
at
capturing cross-sell opportunities

Increase its penetration


in
Investment the Middle Market
Bank
Sources Our Analysis, Field
Research
DIGITAL PARTNERSHIP ESG 36
FINANCIAL VALUATIO
Retail Getting the Clients: Core-Digital
Disruption most out of Ecosystem Synergies
IFAs Stickiness

The private proposal also generates leads in the common


base

Sophisticated IFAs

Private proposal and


investment bank
structure naturally
attract standard IFAs
Standard
IFAs

Fiercer competition due to


XP
long-term positioning on
retail
Sources Our Analysis, Field
Research
DIGITAL PARTNERSHIP ESG 37
FINANCIAL VALUATIO
Retail Getting the Clients: Core-Digital
Disruption most out of Ecosystem Synergies
IFAs Stickiness

Is there a clear winner? Yes... and there are


two!
Brokers are expected to continue concentrating Within the projected market size, both BTG and XP reach
investments bold levels of WuC leaving some room for other non-bank
and gaining market share in the coming years players
Brokers/Challengers WuC Market Share
Brazillian Investment Market, R$ tn
(2025E)
Brokers |
Challengers
5.4
Traditional Banks 5.
Brokers | Challengers (% of 3.5
total) 5.0 4 18% 22%
3.4 2025E 2025E WuC
4. WuC R$ 421 bi
3.3 R$ 515 bi
4. 5
3.1
3. 1
7 3.0 R$ 2.3
40%
2.8
37% tn
34%
30%
27%
24% 2.3 60% The
2025E WuC remaining market
2.0
R$ 1404 bi
1.7 may see more
1.4
1.1 consolidation ahead
0.9

2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E


Sources Anbima, Oliver Wyman, Our
Analysis
DIGITAL PARTNERSHIP ESG 38
FINANCIAL VALUATIO
Retail Getting the Clients: Core-Digital
Disruption most out of Ecosystem Synergies
IFAs Stickiness

Open Banking: traditional banks’


nightmare
Retail banks enjoy current account concentration, penetrating
the whole economy through long-lasting relationships
Five largest banks, # checking accounts (millions)
Santander Itaú Bradesco Banco do Brasil Caixa
The monopoly is coming to an end with
Five largest banks, % of total Open Banking

What explains the


checking account
concentration?
67.1% 66.9% 1 Data
108
monopoly Client owns … integrating … reduc ing
93 results
in… its financial it in one Switching
59.2%
data… system… Costs.
2 High switching
74
67 costs

Financial Costs Clients cheaply


Effort
71
Costs
seek for the
49 56 providing banks with… best services
22 26 3 Lofty retention
rates
2018 2019 2020
Sources Company Filings,
Bacen
DIGITAL PARTNERSHIP ESG 39
FINANCIAL VALUATIO
Retail Getting the Clients: Core-Digital
Disruption most out of Ecosystem Synergies
IFAs Stickiness

Open Banking: traditional banks’


nightmare
Retail banks enjoy current account concentration, penetrating
the whole economy through long-lasting relationships
Five largest banks, # checking accounts
(millions) The monopoly is coming to an end
Santander Itaú Bradesco Banco do Brasil Caixa with
Five largest banks, % of total Open Banking
What explains the
checking account
concentration?
67.1% 66.9% 1 Data
108 Client …
monopoly …
results owns its integrating it reducing
93
59.2% in… financial in one Switching
data… system… Costs.
2 High switching
74
67 costs
Clients cheaply
Financial Costs
seek for the
Effort
71
Costs best services
56
providing banks
49
with…
22 26 3 Lofty retention
rates
2018 2019 2020
Sources Company Filings,
Bacen
DIGITAL PARTNERSHIP ESG 40
FINANCIAL VALUATIO
Retail Getting the Clients: Ecosystem Core-Digital
Disruption most out of Stickiness Synergies
IFAs

Banks vs Fintechs: which business model best serves the average


client?
PRODUCT- CUSTOMER-
ORIENTED ORIENTED

Greater Variety of Better User Experience

Fintechs
Products
Advisory, Wealth Management, Credit for Despite a smaller portfolio of products, focus
Large Retail

X
SMEs
and HNWIs and on clients
other needs
Banks

Credit Expertise Data-Driven Culture


Long track record in the most Allows for a more precise
important client information
financial product tracking, increasing
efficiency

Source Company Filings, Our


Sources
s
Analysis
DIGITAL PARTNERSHIP ESG 41
FINANCIAL VALUATIO
Retail Getting the Clients: Core-Digital
Disruption most out of Ecosystem Synergies
IFAs Stickiness

Being able to combine both worlds is


key
PRODUCT- CUSTOMER-
ORIENTED ORIENTED
Profitable, robust investment FULLY DIGITAL entrance in
bank R
retail
2019 Net Income, structure
R$ 3,833
ebranding, sep/2020:
mn

`
82
(312) (186) digital

BTG Pactual

Much wider product portfolio DIGITAL


RETAIL UNIT
Investments Credit IB solutions Advisory

Source Company Filings, Our


Sources
s
Analysis
DIGITAL PARTNERSHIP ESG 42
FINANCIAL VALUATIO
Retail Getting the Clients: Core-Digital
Disruption most out of Ecosystem Synergies
IFAs Stickiness

Being able to combine both worlds is


key
PRODUCT- CUSTOMER-
ORIENTED ORIENTED
Profitable, robust investment FULLY DIGITAL entrance in
bank retail
Rebranding,
2019 Net Income, structure
R$ 3,833 sep/2020:
mn

digit al
82
(312) (186)

BTG Pactual

DIGITAL
Much wider product portfolio
RETAIL
UNIT
Investments Credit IB solutions Advisory

Source Company Filings, Our


Sources
s
Analysis
DIGITAL PARTNERSHIP ESG 43
FINANCIAL VALUATIO
Retail Getting the Clients: Core-Digital
Disruption most out of Ecosystem Synergies
IFAs Stickiness

BTG+: adoption is relatively easy. The tricky part is recurrence of


use
Brazilians historically have on average around two cards
per checking account
Reaching clients is not the
issue...
2.2
# of Active Cards
2019
: # of Checking
Accounts x Cards with low recurrence of use
# of Checking Accounts # of Active
Cards
=
(Millions of accounts)
214 216 CAC with no return for the issuer
190
184 185
182
172
163 161

...generating recurrence of use


is!
101 103 102
92 90 91 87
87
79 We firmly believe BTG+ will not have
any
trouble regarding recurrence of use
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Why
Sources Company Filings,
Bacen
FINANCIAL DIGITAL PARTNERSHIP ESG VALUATIO
? 44
Retail Getting the Clients: Core-Digital
Disruption most out of Ecosystem Synergies
IFAs Stickiness

Stickiness: highly integrated platforms create a feedback


cycle

We tested the new digital products, and were


impressed by the platforms’ integrability

Main point of integration


Extremely of BTG's
intuitive, two-touch digital platforms
redirectioning:

BTG+ BTG+ platform


platform BTG Digital platform

Current Account Investments


1st 2nd You are now in the
Touch Touch BTG Digital platform
Sources Our
Analysis
DIGITAL PARTNERSHIP ESG 45
FINANCIAL VALUATIO
Retail Getting the Clients: Core-Digital
Disruption most out of Ecosystem Synergies
IFAs Stickiness

Stickiness: highly integrated platforms create a feedback


cycle

ECOSYSTEM
SWITCHING COSTS
LOW Transactional Bank
Transactional Bank No relationship Lower cash
ties with a volume to be
manager transfered
digital HIGH
Broker

SM E Lending

Sources Our
Analysis
DIGITAL PARTNERSHIP ESG 46
FINANCIAL VALUATIO
Retail Getting the Clients: Core-Digital
Disruption most out of Ecosystem Synergies
IFAs Stickiness

Stickiness: highly integrated platforms create a feedback cycle

ECOSYSTEM
SWITCHING COSTS: Create ecosystem
stickiness 1
Enters through lower switching costs-platform:
LOW BTG+
Transactional Bank
2 Finds himself in a layer in which migration is more
costly
than the one through which he entered: BTG Digital
digital HIGH 3
Customer stickiness is generated
Broker

SM E Lending

Sources Our
Analysis
DIGITAL PARTNERSHIP ESG 47
FINANCIAL VALUATIO
Retail Getting the Clients: Core-Digital
Disruption Ecosystem Synergies
most out of IFAs Stickiness

An even larger feedback cycle: investment and digital bank


synergies
BTG’s long-term strategy in our view: have its robust investment bank structure to push DRU growth, and vice-
versa

Deal Origination Investment Bank Products


IFAs provide Incentivizing cross-sell with
valuable access core units attracts the best
to IFAs
the middle
market

Core
DRU
Business

Better Funding Value Proposition for


Sources IFAs
Balance sheet Proximity of the banks’ top
improvement with executives to the IFA
lower risk and higher offices
spreads

Sources Our
Analysis
DIGITAL PARTNERSHIP ESG 48
FINANCIAL VALUATIO
Financ ial Deep
ening

Digit Partnership
al

The partnership model


is
key to support growth
Key to the Inside the Perpetuating No Digital
Past Partnershi the Culture DNA,
Success p No Problem

BTG’s key to success: business scope


expansion
What started as a small proprietary desk in
1983...
Aplicap S.A was founded, as a
securities sales & trader

1989
Banking
License

1
9
9
0
2011
Retail Exposure
- (Banco Pan) 201
LatAm
2
2 Expansion
0 2016 -
0 2020
5 Digital Retail
Core Unit
Activities Creation
...became an industry leader with global
Expansion
penetration
Sources Company Filings 50
FINANCIAL DIGITA PARTNERSHIP ESG VALUATIO
Key to the Inside the Perpetuating No Digital
Past Partnershi the Culture DNA,
Success p No Problem

BTG’s key to success: business scope


expansion
What started as a small proprietary desk in
1983...
Aplicap S.A was founded, as
a
securities sales & trader We highlight three key aspects
that
support such a business model:
1989
Banking “Never comfortable position”
License

1990 - 2005
Core
Activities Integrated Business Units
Expansion
2011
Retail Exposure
(Banco Pan) 201 Lean, efficient structure
LatAm
2
Expansion
2016 -
2020
Digital Retail
Unit
Creation
...became an industry leader with global
penetration
Sources Company Filings 51
FINANCIAL DIGITA PARTNERSHIP ESG VALUATIO
Key to the Inside the Perpetuating No Digital
Past Partnershi the Culture DNA,
Success p No Problem

BTG’s key to success: business scope


expansion
What started as a small proprietary desk in
1983...
Aplicap S.A was founded, as
a
securities sales & trader We highlight three key aspects
that
support such a business model:
1989
Banking “Never comfortable position”
License

1990 - 2005 Constantly


Core
Integrated Business Units
unlocking
Activities
Expansion
value from
2011 new business
Retail Exposure units
(Banco Pan) 2012 Lean, efficient structure
LatAm
Expansion
2016 -
2020
Digital Retail
Unit
...became an industry leader with global Creation Partnership model has a major
penetration role
Sources Company Filings 52
FINANCIAL DIGITA PARTNERSHIP ESG VALUATIO
Key to the Inside the Perpetuating No Digital
Past Partnershi the Culture DNA,
Success p No Problem

Agressive model that keeps every partner


sharp
Never in a comfortable Integrated Business Lean, efficent
position Units structure

…but sell shares at the lowest of two


values if they want to leave:

Partners enter the 1 Book Value Or if they have to:


vehicle at Book 22.3% Any partner can be
Value… asked to leave
2 M arket Value anytime

Positions increase alongside 18.6%

ROE, which
averaged
16.0% 15
years%
in the last four
14.1%

12.9%

11.0%

1Q1 3Q1 1Q1 3Q1 1Q1 3Q1 1Q2 3Q20


7 7 8 8 9 9 0
Sources Company Filings, Brazil
Journal
PARTNERSHIP ESG 53
FINANCIAL DIGITA VALUATIO
Key to the Inside the Perpetuating No Digital
Past Partnershi the Culture DNA,
Success p No Problem

Agressive model that keeps every partner


sharp
Never in a comfortable Integrated Business Lean, efficent
position Units structure

…but sell shares at the lowest of two


values if they want to leave:

Partners enter the 1 Book Value Or if they have to:


vehicle at Book 22.3% Any partner can be
Value… asked to leave
2 Market Value anytime

Positions increase alongside 18.6%

ROE, which If it suddenly drops lower than 1x Book,


averaged
16.0% 15 Partners
have huge incentive to reverse the situation
years%
in the last four
14.1%

12.9% 2017:
2Q17 average
11.0% Mkt. Cap to Book
1Q1
7
3Q1
7
1Q1
8
Sources Company Filings, Brazil
3Q1
8
1Q1
9
3Q1
9
1Q2
0
3Q20
0.73x
Journal
PARTNERSHIP ESG 54
FINANCIAL DIGITA VALUATIO
Key to the Inside the Perpetuating No Digital
Past Partnershi the Culture DNA,
Success p No Problem

Agressive model that keeps every partner


sharp
Never in a comfortable Integrated Business Lean, efficent
position Units structure

This keeps partners from jumping


off
the boat during tough times
Partners enter the Those who stayed in the bank after the slumps
vehicle at Book 22.3% enjoyed higher returns on their equity:
Value… # Partners
Value/Partner, R$ mn
Book

256

Positions increase alongside 18.6%


98.0
ROE, which 247 247

averaged
16.0% 15 67.8
241 75.3
237
65.5 66.1 63.3

years%
in the last four
14.1%
230

12.9%

11.0%

1Q1 3Q1 1Q1 3Q1 1Q1 3Q1 1Q2 3Q20 201 201 201 201 201 2020
7 7 8 8 9 9 0 5 6 7 8 9
Sources Company
Filings
PARTNERSHIP ESG 55
FINANCIAL DIGITA VALUATIO
Key to the Inside the Perpetuating No Digital
Past Partnershi the Culture DNA,
Success p No Problem

The partnership model promotes integration between


areas
Never in a comfortable Integrated Business Lean, efficent
position Units structure

What is the main incentive regarding partners As a result, cross-selling allows for healthy,
compensation? homogeneous long-term growth
The whole Revenue by Business Unit, R$ mn
cake Investment banking Corporate lending S&T Asset management Wealth management

must grow... 9,00


0
CAGR17-
8,000
20 32%
7,000

6,000
27
%
5,000

4,000 10
%
…and not just 3,000
26
the 2,000
%
slice 1,000
53
-
2017 2018 2019 2020
%
Sources Company
Filings
PARTNERSHIP ESG 56
FINANCIAL DIGITA VALUATIO
Key to the Inside the Perpetuating No Digital
Past Partnershi the Culture DNA,
Success p No Problem

Concentrated voting power means efficient decision


taking
Never in a comfortable Integrated Business Lean, efficent
position Units structure

Having the bank’s Senior Partners controlling the


G7 Holdings (controlling company
partners) allows for efficiently prevailing the best ideas
BTG
André
Pactual Esteves ON Shares PN
Holding 237
50% Five partners 49%
100% Shares
Partners concentrate 87%
of the voting 41%
37% power
BTG Pactual
Holding Free Float
Financeira
73.9% 26.1%
13%
BPAC 11 10%
Units
0%

G7 André Free Partner Free Partner André


Holdings Esteve Float s Float s Esteve
Sources Company s s
Filings
PARTNERSHIP ESG 57
FINANCIAL DIGITA VALUATIO
Key to the Inside the Perpetuating No Digital
Past Partnership the Culture DNA,
Success No Problem

Highly experienced senior partners choose the best future


successors

“In the long-run, the


Having the bank’s Senior Partners controlling the
success of a Partnership company
depends on sticking to allows for efficiently prevailing the best ideas
meritocracy.
ON Shares PN
[…] It is all about 50% Five partners 49%
Shares
human capital”* concentrate 87%
of the voting 41%
37% power

13%

To understand the partnership from the inside, we 10%

talked to former partner and founder Pérsio


0%
Arida Video conversation took place on March G7 André Free Partner Free Partner André
15th Holdings Esteve Float s Float s Esteve
Sources Company Filings, Field Research. *Full quote available in the s s
appendix
PARTNERSHIP ESG 58
FINANCIAL DIGITA VALUATIO
Key to the Inside the Perpetuating No Digital
Past Partnership the Culture DNA,
Success No Problem

Highly experienced senior partners choose the best future


successors

“In the long-run, the A super qualified team from the start...
André Esteves Roberto ti
success of a Partnership Antonio Porto Sallou James
depends on sticking to Marcelo Kalim Oliveira Pérsio
meritocracy. Emmanuel Arida
[…] It is all about Hermann 2008
Controllers
human capital”* …and an exceptional choice of
new
partners…
André Esteves Roberto Sallouti
Antonio Porto Renato Santos
Guilherme 2021
Paes Controllers

To understand the partnership from the inside, we


talked to former partner and founder Pérsio
…guarantee the bank's robustness
Arida Video conversation took place on March and
15th
Sources Company Filings, Field Research. *Full quote available in the
appendix
resilience
PARTNERSHIP ESG 59
FINANCIAL DIGITA VALUATIO
Key to the Past Inside the Perpetuating No Digital
Success Partnership the Culture DNA,
No Problem

Highly experienced senior partners choose the best future


successors

“In the long-run, the


success of a Partnership
depends on sticking to
meritocracy. About the 2015 credibility crisis, Pérsio
told us:
[…] It is all about “It is the only case in banking history that
human capital”* I know of in which a bank suffers from a
full- fledged bank run and survives without
being bailed out by Central Bank or
regulatory
entities.”

To understand the partnership from the inside, we


talked to former partner and founder Pérsio
Arida
Video
Sources Company Filings, Field Research. *Full conversation
quote available in thetook place on March
appendix
15th 60
FINANCIAL DIGITA PARTNERSHIP ESG VALUATIO
Key to the Inside the Perpetuating the No Digital DNA,
Past Partnershi Culture No Problem
Success p

Talent magnet: the partnership attracts great


minds

Eduard
o
Guardia
We had a conversation with a major
international
Alessandr bank’s Vice Chairman, in which he said:
o “BTG is well regarded by those who do not
Farkuh
want to be in a rigid and bureaucratic
place, which is why it attracts great
people as partners”
Man uet
s o
Almeida

Will
Lander
s

Sources Company Filings, Field


Research
PARTNERSHIP ESG 61
FINANCIAL DIGITA VALUATIO
Key to the Inside the Perpetuating the No Digital DNA,
Past Partnershi Culture No Problem
Success p

Partners perpetuate the bank's culture in new ventures

In our conversations with


employees, we found that the
partners are committed to
bringing the bank's culture to
all new ventures
“The acquisition of Bolsa y Renta was due to
Guilherme Gomes
an exceptional matching of culture
Executive Director | BTG Pactual
Colombia and long- term vision”
Conversation happened on 23/02 - Guilherme
Gomes

“Several partners came here from Brazil, and


Rafael Dringoli
today we have already managed to align the
Associate Partner | BTG Pactual
Chile culture in Chile with what we practice in
Conversation happened on 25/02 Brazil”
- Rafael

Sources Company Filings, Field


Dringoli
Research
PARTNERSHIP ESG 62
FINANCIAL DIGITA VALUATIO
Key to the Inside the Perpetuating No Digital
Past Partnershi the Culture DNA, No
Success p Problem
The franchise has spread to many markets. How will it break into the
digital?
Amos However, incumbent banks lack the digital mindset
Genish that
fintechs enjoy…
Head of Digital Retail
Unit
“Consumers expect from their ...and ambitions aren’t
banks the same experience modest:
they have with FAAMG” 6th largest 1st option 4.5 million
retail bank in of IFAs and customers in
Brazil Investors 2023

A telecom
guru

Sources Company Filings, Youtube Video featuring Amos Genish: “Crescimento do segmento digital em
bancos”
PARTNERSHIP ESG 63
FINANCIAL DIGITA VALUATIO
Key to the Inside the Perpetuating No Digital
Past Partnershi the Culture DNA, No
Success p Problem
The franchise has spread to many markets. How will it break into the
digital?
Amos However, incumbent banks lack the digital mindset
Genish that
fintechs enjoy…
Head of Digital Retail
Unit
“Consumers expect from their ...and ambitions aren’t
banks the same experience modest:
they have with FAAMG” 6th largest 1st option 4.5 million
retail bank in of IFAs and customers in
Brazil Investors 2023

A telecom
guru
They don’t have the digital DNA.
But they have the entrepreneur one.

The partnership has always led partners to


expand
their usual job description
Sources Company Filings, Youtube Video featuring Amos Genish: “Crescimento do segmento digital em
bancos”
PARTNERSHIP ESG 64
FINANCIAL DIGITA VALUATIO
Financ ial Deep
ening

E SG
Digit
Does BTG adopt the
al best
business practices?

P artners
hip
Environmental, Social, and Corporate
Governance
How aligned is BTG with the best business
practices? We ranked multiple companies through
an original index to assess how aligned
they are with generating stakeholder
value

Current Efforts
We
Grades from 1 - 3:
compare:
The company’s current 5 Environmental criteria
efforts regarding the 7 Social criteria
best business practices 5 Governance criteria

Index
Rationale
Our view on future Future Commitment
commitment with an Grades from 1 - 3:
ESG agenda
Clear
goals ESG
Evolution Benchmarks

Managem
ent
Sources Companies Annual Reports, Self awareness
Elaboration
PARTNERSHIP ESG 66
FINANCIAL DIGITA VALUATIO
Environmental, Social, and Corporate
Governance
How aligned is BTG with the best business
practices? We ranked multiple companies through
an original index to assess how aligned
they are with generating stakeholder
2.8 value

2.6 NTCO3
Commitment with future agenda

XP
2.4

BPAC1 BTG is well positioned. Highlights:


BIDI1 1
2.2 1 ITUB
4 Environmental
B3SA
BBDC3 ESG committee has clear goals
3
2.0
that are aligned with its
products
1.8
Social
BBSA Relevant efforts regarding
3 education
1.6 PETR4
QUAL3 Governance ESG
Past credibility crisis is being Benchmarks
1.4
1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80 2.00 2.20 2.40 2.60 2.80 3.00
mitigated with strict actions
Current efforts
Sources Companies Annual Reports, Self
Elaboration
PARTNERSHIP ESG 67
FINANCIAL DIGITA VALUATIO
Financ ial Deep
ening

Financials &
Digit
Valuation
al
How do our theses
translate into numbers?

P artners
hip
Business Business Unit: Financial SOTP
Unit: Core DRU Indicators Valuation
Business
Core Business highlights: cross-selling is likely to drive CL and IB
revenue
Corporate Lending main assumption: 4.1x book leverage A closer relationship to large corporates is the most relevant
by 2025 due to a growing base of unsecured funding driver for future IB revenue, generating market share gains

SME Lending CL Revenue ,R$ bn IB Revenue, R$ bn ECM Market Share DCM


CL Portfolio Volume , R$ bn
Market Share

6.3
Yields
2.3
209.7
Large Companies: 5.1
2
2.5% .
SME: 4.1 1
168.9 23.9%
6.4% 3.3
1.9
2.6
135.3 21.7%
1.8
14.9%
109.7 19.5%
4.1x Book 1.8
89.7 17.3% 1.6 14.4%
2025E
73.7 15.1%
12.9%
1.3 13.9%
1
3
.
5
%
2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 13.4%
Sources Our
Analysis 13.2%
PARTNERSHIP ESG 69
FINANCIAL DIGITA VALUATIO
Business Business Unit: Financial SOTP
Unit: Core DRU Indicators Valuation
Business
Core Business highlights: cross-selling is likely to drive CL and IB
revenue
Corporate Lending main assumption: 4.1x book leverage A closer relationship to large corporates is the most
by 2025 due to a growing base of unsecured funding relevant
driver for future IB revenue, generating market share gains

SME Lending CL Revenue ,R$ bn IB Revenue, R$ ECM Market Share DCM Market
CL Portfolio Volume , R$ bn
bn Share

6.3 2.3
Yields
209.7 2.1
Large Companies: 5.1
2.5% 1.9
14.9%
SME: 4.1 1.8
168.9 23.9%
6.4% 3.3 1.6 14.4%
2.6
135.3 21.7%
1.8 1.3 13.9%

109.7 19.5% 13.5%


4.1x Book 13.4%
89.7 17.3% 13.2%
2025E
73.7 15.1% 12.9% 12.9%
12.9% 12.6%
12.4%
12.3%
12.0%

2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
Sources Our
Analysis
PARTNERSHIP ESG 70
FINANCIAL DIGITA VALUATIO
Business Business Unit: Financial SOTP
Unit: Core DRU Indicators Valuation
Business
We discount S&T revenue growth due to insertion in
retail
2020 was an excellent year, but we expect even greater How do we forecast sales
revenues from 2023 onwards
and trading revenue?
Sales and Trading Revenue, R$ bn
We take the average guidance for quarterly revenue…
10% CAGR Quarterly S&T Revenue, R$ mn
4.0
450 600 850
3.6
From 1Q20 Conference Call
3.4
...then we think of an annual growth rate as
3.1 3.1
2.8
Equity Growth Rate

33.5% of
Total 4.5% discount on growth
Revenues

Due to insertion in retail,


15.1% of
Total
and consequent
Revenues expected reduction
2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E in VaR
Sources Our
Analysis
PARTNERSHIP ESG 71
FINANCIAL DIGITA VALUATIO
Business Unit: Business Financial SOTP
Core Business Unit: Indicator Valuation
DRU s

BTG Digital will reach R$ 515 bn by


2025
BTG Digital is set to increase its share among We built 3 investment portfolios based on different
brokerage institutions investor profiles and estimated a fair take-rate for each

BTG Digital AuC BTG's share on non-banks


brokerage firms
515

Conservative Moderate Agressive


377
Portfolio Portfolio Portfolio
0.78% 0.73% 0.65%
268 22%
19%

16%
180 Average take-rate
114
13% 0.72%
66 10% or 1.13% before IFA
7% expenses

2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E

Sources Our
Analysis
PARTNERSHIP ESG 72
FINANCIAL DIGITA VALUATIO
Business Business Financial SOTP
Unit: Unit: Indicators Valuation
Core DRU
Business
BTG+ will reach 4.8 million customers and R$900 million annual
profit
We use a bottom-up approach to estimation, starting from the expected
number of clients that BTG + should reach
#Clients

81k 1.0mn 1.9mn 2.9mn 3.9mn 4.8mn Other key assumptions:

TPV (bn) Average monthly Spending (thousand) 132.5

1.5% of revolving over TPV


103.3

2.3
76.9

2.2
2.2
1.1% Net Interchange
2.2
2.1
2.1 51.2

26.2

2.0
10% BTG+ Premium Penetration

2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E

Sources Our
Analysis
PARTNERSHIP ESG 73
FINANCIAL DIGITA VALUATIO
Business Business Financial SOTP
Unit: Unit: Indicators Valuation
Core DRU
Business
How does BTG look like five years from
now?
Revenue, R$ bn 26.0 2020 2025
Investment
7.3%
E
Banking
Corporate lending (Ex-
Non-Core 15.7% 12.0%
Business) Sales and trading 22.9% 3.9%
22. 1.2%
Asset CAGR
management
Wealth 0 8.8%
Digital Retail Unit:
management Digital
18. 3.8%
BTG +
5 10.5% 29.4%
BTG BTG BTG +
BTG + Business + Digital Business
Principal
15. 7.7% 13.2% 8.5%
8%
Core Business:
investments
Participations
Interest and
3
other 12.
3
14%
58.6%
9.3
Capital
48% 30%
16%
Intensive
9%
10%
Business
15%
32%
Client fee
33% 29%
16% Business
11%
14%

2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E


Sources Our
Analysis
PARTNERSHIP ESG 74
FINANCIAL DIGITA VALUATIO
Business Business Financial SOTP
Unit: Unit: Indicators Valuation
Core DRU
Business
We also believe in improvements regarding efficiency and bottom
lines
Efficiency Ratio: the bank will gain significant efficiency due Expenses control + Diminishing need of reinvestments in
to an asset light expansion the
long-term = higher payout ratio in perpetuity
OpEx, R$ bn and Efficiency Ratio Net Income, R$ bn and Dividend Payout
Ratio Payout Ratio
2025 – 2030: 50%
Perpetuity: 60%
Asset-light expansion
is c ost-efficient
1 2,000

10.2
43.5% 50%
8.7
41.9%
12.2
41.1% 40% 40% 40% 40% 40%
40.6%
40.0% 10.1
6.4 39.3%
8.4
7.5 6.7
5.3
5.3
3.8
4.2

2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E

Sources Our
Analysis
PARTNERSHIP ESG 75
FINANCIAL DIGITA VALUATIO
Business Business Financial SOTP
Unit: Unit: Indicators Valuation
Core DRU
Business
We also believe in improvements regarding efficiency and bottom
lines
Efficiency Ratio: the bank will gain significant efficiency due Expenses control + Diminishing need of reinvestments in
to an asset light expansion the
long-term = higher payout ratio in perpetuity
OpEx, R$ bn and Efficiency Ratio Net Income, R$ bn and Dividend Payout
Ratio Payout Ratio
2025 – 2030: 50%
Perpetuity: 60%
Asset-light expansion
is c ost-efficient
1 2,000

10.2
43.5% 50%
8.7
41.9%
12.2
41.1% 40% 40% 40% 40% 40%
40.6%
40.0% 10.1
6.4 39.3%
8.4
7.5 6.7
5.3
5.3
3.8
4.2

2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E

Sources Our
Analysis
PARTNERSHIP ESG 76
FINANCIAL DIGITA VALUATIO
Business Business Financial SOTP
Unit: Unit: Indicators Valuation
Core DRU
Business
The result: attractive returns combined with a healthy balance
sheet
As a consequence of an asset-light expansion and ... and a healthy balance sheet with highly comfortable levels
DRU scallability, we forecast attractive ROAA and of
ROAE... capitalization
Basel Index
ROAE ROAA
Tier I Tier II
17.6 17.4
17.1 17.4 17.0
16.7 % %
% % 1.4% %
% 1.7% 1.1% 0.9%
2.1%
2.6%
25.9%
24.2%
22.6%
20.8%
19.2%
17.6%

16.3% 16.1%
15.7% 16.2%
14.1% 15.0%

2.4% 2.4%
1.9% 2.2% 2.3%
2.0%

2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E

Sources Our
Analysis
PARTNERSHIP ESG 77
FINANCIAL DIGITA VALUATIO
Business Business Financial SOTP
Unit: Unit: Indicators Valuation
Core DRU
Business
SOTP valuation: R$ 154.2 price target with a 52%
upside
After all, how much is
BPAC11 worth? We believe in an upside of 52%
Our Sum of The Parts Valuation

For each business unit, we


calculate the fair Equity R$ 6.8 R$ 1.4
R$ 9.5
Value using the DDM R$ 17.1 R$ 154.2
method
We assume, in R$ 17.6

general: R$ 101.9
Ke =
11.92% R$ 101.5

g (Perpetuity) = 7.00%
Resulting from assuming a ROE
of
17.5% and payout ratio of 60%
in
perpetuity (2030)

Sources Our
Analysis
PARTNERSHIP ESG 78
FINANCIAL DIGITA VALUATIO
Business Business Financial SOTP
Unit: Unit: Indicators Valuation
Core DRU
Business
We see BPAC11 as a unique growth story for Brazilian
banks
Fwd
12.0
2021
XP
BIDI1
1
10.0
BPAC11 trades similarly
incumbent
to banks...
STNE
8.0 LPLA

P/ BV 6.0
...despite a much more
attractive
4.0 growth story...
BPAC1
SCHW
1
Challenger
2.0 JPM ITUB4 SANB1 Incumbent
MS
UBS GS
1
... leading us to believe that
BAC
CS
BBDC4
the stock is
0.0
2.0 7.0 12.0 17.0 22.0 27.0 32.0 37.0 underpriced
ROE,
Sources Bloomberg, Our %
Analysis
PARTNERSHIP ESG 79
FINANCIAL DIGITA VALUATIO
Would you be a BTG Pactual
shareholder?

Diversified and integrated business


units…

...driven by Financial Deepening trends...

...and an exceptional Partnership model!

Yes
!
Q&A
MCA Capital

Gab riel Gral | P ed ro Jank | Rafae


Presentation Index

Cover Third Thesis: Partnership


Key to the Past Success I
Our Theses B nside the Partnership Per
petuating the Culture No
TG at a Glance Digital DNA, No Problem

First Thesis: Financial Deepenin ESG


g Capital Markets Develop Our ESG Index
ment Blue Ocean for Whole
saling Investor’ Side: Reallo Financials & Valuation
cation Wealth Industry: A N Business Unit: Core Busin
ew Era ess Business Unit: DRU F
inancial Indicators
Second Thesis: Digital SOTP Valuation
Retail Disruption Distribution:
Quality Niched Clients: Ec Conclusion
osystem Stickiness Core-
Digital Synergies

Gab riel Gral | P ed ro Jank | Rafae


A p p en d i
x
1.Digital Retail Unit (exc. Pan and Too) 3. Partnership and governance 5. Participations and others
1. Banco Pan
1. COVID-19 impact on Digital Banks 1. Field Research: Pérsio Arida
2. Too Seguros
1.2 Field Research: IFAs 2. Case Study: Better Than Goldman? 3. Principal Investments
3. IFA’s clients migration: Our esti 3.3 Management Description
mates 3.4 Shareholder’s Structure 6. Financials
4. IFAs: Geographical Distribution (XP vs. BTG
6.1 Summarized Income Stateme
) 1.5 Case Study: Tangerine
4. Core Business nt 6.2 Revenues Breakdown
6. BTG Advisors
1. Industry Dynamics 3. Investment Banking
7. BTG Digital: International Peers 1
2. Investment Banking: incentive fees 4. Corporate Lending
.8 BTG Digital: take-rate estimati
4.3 Sales and Trading: drivers 5.Sales and Trading 6
on 1.9 BTG Digital: AuC estimate
4. Sales and Trading: risk appetite .6 Asset Management
s
5. Asset Management positioning 7. BTG+
10. BTG Digital sensibility analysis
6. Corporate Lending: Portfolio Maturity 8. BTG Digital
11. Field Research: digital banks 1.1
4.7 SMEs: an attractive market 9. Banco Pan
2 Mosaico: creating an ecosyste
8. Unsecured Funding 10.Balance Sheet Ratios
m 1.13 Open Banking: Kinvo
9. BTG+ Business 6.11 Core Valuation –
1.14 The startups ba
10. Latin America Expansion DDM
nk 1.15 Banco XP
6.12 AM and PB Modelling
2. ESG 1.16 How much does
Analysis
a client pays in fees? Rationale 6.13 BTG+ Business
1. Our ESG Index: Grades and criteria 2. 14. Equity value
2 Our ESG Index: Detailed examples 15.Implied and Exit Multiples
2.3 What does ESG commitment mean 6.16 Justified P/BV
s? 17. Sanity Check on P/BV
18. Sensitivity Analysis
19. Risks to our Valuation

Gab riel Gral | P ed ro Jank | Rafae


COVID-19

Coronavirus crisis has accelerated trends in financial


deepening | Appendix
Millions of 30
accounts
20

Avg. 40-50% growth in digital


jan/ 20 oct/20 banks in the first semester of
jan/ 20 oct/20 2020

Millions of 7.2
accounts

4
In order to maintain the pace of
growth, the competition to
increase product offerings and
loyalty becomes more fierce
jan/ 20 oct/20
jan/ 20 oct/20

Sources Company Filings, 84


Field Research: IFAs

Our field research with


| Appendix
IFAs
With the research, we could see a
In order to fully understand the expansion of BTG's B2B network,
we made contact with several IFAs. We reached them by email,
clear distinction between
phone and social media, and the conversation with each one common and
lasted an average of 30 minutes. sophisticated advisors!
We conducted the conversations in a very free structure, but some
questions were asked in common to the advisors:

What is the average ticket?

What made you change platforms? (in the case of those who migrated)

How was the migration process? How many percent migrated in the first
few months? (in the case of those who migrated)

Have you received proposals from competing

brokers? How is the incentive for Cross Sell?

What favors XP the most? And BTG?


The physical structure of Lifetime,
What is your perception about the competition in product variety which Marcello showed us,
and platform technology? exemplifies the Private proposal of
the IFAs that BTG
seeks.

Sources Field 85
IFAs migration: Our estimates

In BTG's tactics, migration is not a nightmare... our data proves it


| Appendix

What drives higher After all, how much of the assets


migration? is expected to migrate?

Sophisticated IFAs
Closer relationship
with clients Avg. 82% of AuC
migrated in the first months
after (based on 7 IFAs
Quantity of services experience)
offered
Common IFAs

Avg. 44% of AuC


Sophistication of the expected to migrate in the first months
service offered after (in the hypothesis of migration)

We expect even higher migration rates as


BTG
consolidates its brand in retail

Sources Field 86
IFAs: geographical distribution

IFA offices: geographical distribution, XP vs


| Appendix
BTG

Sources 87
Case Study: Tangerine

Case Study: Tangerine Growth and the need of physical


| Appendix
contact

“We understand that having


some physical presence is important
to some people. Brokers/
AuC People still
B anksay Comissions
to us, Fin.
‘I really Institutions
like what Tangerine stands for,
but I’m not a customer, s because the
lack
of physical presence makes me
uncomfortable.”
5 large brick–and-mortar
banks Peter Aceto, CEO
Despite a successful 100% digital
proposal,
Products
Tangerine needed
customers whose trust
alternative
depended
solutions
on 41% Brazilians trust the bank manager to
for
contact invest

Sources Harvard Business 88


BTG Advisors

BTG Advisors: a hybrid


| Appendix
strategy
We got the following insights about BTG
With the acquisition of Ourinvest, Advisors:
BTG Advisors was created,
BTG’s Proprietary IFA
 It is a good strategy to compete with the other large
Private Banks, as it attracts clients with not so high
assets, and who are dissatisfied with the traditional
Employees are remunerated in two ways: molds

Comissions on investments, as IFAs  It ends up having greater integration with the bank's
traditional Wealth products than the other IFAs, an
employee told us that Advisors is like a “Private Jr”
at BTG

Salaries and banefits, as BTG  Good option for those who want to migrate to the
employees IFAs' service model but are not confident enough to
work with advisors outside major banks

Sources Our Analysis, Field 89


BTG Digital: international peers

BTG Digital: International Peers


| Appendix
Comparison

The alignment of BTG's metrics with that of major,


more consolidated international players indicates that
our assumptions in general are sustainable

Sources Our 90
BTG Digital: take-rate estimation| Appendix

Based on fee data for each type of product, and portfolios for
6.9% 5.7%
9.1% each investor profile, we estimate an average of BTG's Take
FIDC/Deb/ CRI/ CRA 6.9% Rate, considering a rebate in which 60% is for the bank and
% 11.4%
4.1%
40% for the IFA
18.2%
Fixed Income Funds % 11.4% Conservativ M oderate Agressive
13.8%
e Portfolio Portfolio Portfolio
0,78% 0,73% 0,65%
Hedge Funds %
22.9%

Equity Funds % 36.4% 27.6% Average take-rate


0,72%
or 1,13% before IFA expenses
Stocks
% 22.9%
16.6% By estimating the take-rate in this way, we can get a
FII % more
accurate idea of how BTG's earnings are affected as:
11.4%  changes occur in the composition of investor
36.4%
COE
24.1%
profiles
%
14.3%  changes occur in the composition of B2B and B2C
 changes occur regarding specific products in
the portfolio
Conservative Moderate Agressive

Sources Our Analysis, Field 91


BTG Digital AuC estimates

BTG Digital will reach more than R$ 500 bn AuC in


| Appendix
2025
Our estimates indicate that non-bank institutions are expected ...and BTG Digital is set to increase its share among brokers
to account for 40% of the investment market by 2025... and
non-bank Institutions
Non-Bank
Brokers Bank Non-Banks
Brokers (% (total)
% BTG Digital AuC non-banks
5.9 BTG's share on brokerage f irms
total)
5.4 515

4.9

4.5
4.1
377
3.5
3.7
3.4
22%
3.3
268
3.1 19%
40%
3.0 37%
2.8 34% 16%
30% 180
27%
24% 13%
114
2.3
2.0 66 10%
1.7
1.4
1.1 7%
0.9

2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Sources Company Filings, Our 92


BTG Digital sensibility analysis

Sensibility Analysis: BTG Digital


| Appendix
BTG Digital Sensibility Analysis – Additional Value on BPAC11 Unit (Base Scenario = R$
17.64)

Efficiency Rate Fixed in 50% 2021E, linearly decreasing to 40% Take Rate Fixed in
until 2025E 0.72%

Take Rate is keep flat throughout our forecast horizon. We see it as


a
equilibrium of two main forces:

 Increasing competition and negative effects on ROA


 Increasing participation of B2C channel for BTG Digital

Sources Our 93
Field Research: digital banks| Appendix
Digital Banking Apps: our tests and
conclusions

Best rating when Impressive range Good Benefits Good financing


How does each BTG Digital results
in a more it comes to of products in the Platform, with a products for
app robust support and ecosystem well- developed vehicles, real estate
stands investment service loyalty program and others
platform
out?

Sources Field 94
Field Research: digital banks| Appendix
Digital Banking Apps: our tests and
conclusions

Best rating when Impressive range Good Benefits Good financing


How does each BTG Digital results
in a more it comes to of products in the Platform, with a products for
app robust support and ecosystem well- developed vehicles, real estate
stands investment service loyalty program and others
platform
out?
Overall, they provide a very i) Integration with BTG
satisfying user experience and a Digital
wide range of products... ii) BTG makes acquisitions with enormous
agility;
...however, in the long term we manages to bring complementary services much more
easily;
believe BTG Digital stands out for
and it remains close to numerous technological initiatives that
some main may represent good options and competitive advantages in the
reasons medium term.

Competitors either do not have the


same firepower, or they are too
inert to do so
Sources Field 95
Mosaico: creating an ecosystem | Appendix
Value generation through an exceptional partnership: BTG &
Mosaico
Cash back service Client base
With BTG’s support, M osaico will expansion In order to have
be able to use the size and cashback service available,
expertise of its partner to offer M osaico’s clients must open
the cashback service a BTG+ account and
request a bank
More client retention card
CAC reduction
By offering cashback Those additional customers
services, M osaico expects to that BTG will gain from the
retain and monetize more partnership, will have a zero CAC
clients expenditure

More purchase Marketplace development


recurrence The partnership will
As clients receive also provide M osaico’s
cashbacks, they can services
spend it in other to BTG clients
products

Mosaico only receives


Customer Creates a card at BTG+ to a fee when the
uses receive cashback customer uses a BTG+ expands customer
bank service
marketplace base with acquisition cost
close to zero
Sources Company 96
Open Banking: Kinvo

BTG and XP are getting ready for Open


| Appendix
Banking

700 thousand
users R$120 bi in
What is behind these recent acquisitons?
wallets
consolidated

Acquired by in  The last stage of open banking - which


mar/21 will allow for better integration of
investments - scheduled for the end of
the year, according to the Central Bank's
schedule.
120 thousand users  Both BTG and XP anticipate the
R$ 12 bi in wallets movement and invest in businesses that
consolidated (sep/20) benefit from this change while
complement retail.

Acquired by in sep/ 20

Sources Valor 97
The startups bank | Appendix
BTG Pactual: the startups
bank

BTG Pactual How does BoostLAB meet both side needs Startup
simultaneously?
Side
Customer Base Expansion
Side
Boosting Business Expansion
By getting close to the initial stages of The chosen startup, can easily
these startups, BTG can offer initial boost their business with the
services to the company, such as credit support and resources of the
investment bank

Cross-selling with ECM and Broadening Horizons


DCM One of the strengths of boostLAB is
As these startups grows, they will the network that the startup will have
probably demand new services that access to, from top bank executives to
BTG can also offer, such as IPO’s and all kind
M&A’s advisory of investors
Equity Investment Opportunities Being the best
Although this is not the final objective, solution
BTG Pactual can invest in the company.
So far, the investment bank has made This group of startups does not
five deals attract large investment
banks, as they interested in
larger companies

Sources Company Filings, Social 98


Banco XP

Banco XP: A Threat to Traditional


Banks | Appendix
Banco XP main goal is to provide a full customer experience to It can compete with BTG’s DRU over AuC market share, but
its clients in a unified digital platform, trying to expand AuC. they have stronger common enemies right now, large
traditional banks.
Banco XP evolution
2021 Total AuC (R$ bn)
(2019) M ulti-
purpose
bank
authorization
Authorization to operate with
both commercial and
Cards
investment banking activities, agreement with
as a complement to its Visa
current products and
services. In March 2021,
Users credit and debit
cards will be
Experience
issued for XP
To improve client clients, with lower 1,959
retention, the fees than
platform will include M ain hires
traditional banks. 1,575
a marketplace and José Berenguer 1,293
cashbacks on some as the incumbent bank
purchases. chief, former CEO of
660
JPMorgan Brazil. 475
Gustavo Balassiano 205
as the corporate bank
chief, former Itaú BBA BTG Pactual XP Banco Ita Bradesc
Senior Office. Santander Inc do ú o
Brasil

Sources Company Filings, Our 99


Average revenue per client | Appendix
How much does an average digital client pays in fees and
interest?

Monthly TPV/Client: R$2100


Supposing an average custody of R$300k per
client
Interchange Fees: 1.1% (Avg. credit and debit)->
Custody (avg. fee): 0.5%-1.0% / R$23.1
year
Revolving: 1.5% of TPV
Interest Paid: 10% monthly
Interest: R$ 3.15
BTG Premium (optionality):
29,90

Paid in fees for the broker: Paid in fees, int. and additional
R$ 3000/ year or R$ 125 / services:
month R$26.5

Sources Our 100


Our ESG Index

Building Our ESG


| Appendix
Index

Sources Our Analysis, Companies Annual 101


Our ESG Index

Building Our ESG


| Appendix
Index

Sources Our Analysis, Companies Annual 102


Our ESG Index

Our ESG Index: Environmental Criteria


| Appendix
Examples

Sources Our Analysis, Companies Annual 103


Our ESG Index

Our ESG Index: Social Criteria


| Appendix
Examples

Sources Our Analysis, Companies Annual 104


Our ESG Index

Our ESG Index: Governance Criteria


| Appendix
Examples

Sources Our Analysis, Companies Annual 105


What does ESG Commitment | Appen
means?
dix
What does ESG Commitment
means?
Management recognizes materiality more
than the stakeholders themselves, with an
emphasis on data protection, integrity
and digital innovation
Stakeholders View

Ethics and compliance in all


relationships We also highlight
Cyber risks, security and data the practical
protection responsibility to
Integration of socio-environmental risk
with promote a greener
corporate risk management economy, with green
Diversity and inclusion of bonds and specialized
people
Innovation and technology driven by ETFs.
digital
transformation

Social responsibility actions and


private social investment

Human capital management

M anagement View

Sources Our Analysis, Companies Annual 106


Field Research: Pérsio Arida

Our meeting with Pérsio


| Appendix
Arida
We had a call with Pérsio Arida, to understand in detail The conversation took place on March 15, and we contacted Persio
what the Partnership is like from the inside, and what with the help of FGV professors.
to expect from its future.
(All citations w ere authorized)
He told us about:
“In the long-run, the success of a Partnership depends on
 His career in the private sector, and a little bit of sticking to meritocracy. The problem is that there is no
relationships with BTG colleagues; purely objective evaluation of merit. The Partnership model
helps to avoid individual idiosyncrasies as all partners have
 The creation of BTG, and the purchase of Pactual; a voice in selecting new partners and electing the ones to
run it. It helps but does not ensure success. It is all about
 The origin of the bank's name; human capital. In the modern world, capital is not a
constraint.”
 The replacement of the partners who left and
how important this is for Partnership; "It is the only case in banking history that I know of in
which a bank suffers from a full-fledged bank run and
 The day-to-day life during the credibility crisis of survives without being bailed out by Central Bank or
2015. regulatory entities."

Sources Field 107


Better Than Goldman? | Appendix
Trade-off: maintaining the partnership model or going
public?
In the 80’s, american Investment Banks started to What followed for Goldman Sachs was a success:
dismantle their partnership culture when they went astronomic
public profit growth in the post-IPO decade
Goldman Sachs Net Income, US$ bn
IPO
Bear 13.4
198 Sterns
5 11.6

M organ A natural consequence was that the


198 Stanley started taking more bets and
bank 9.5

6 risk S&T Revenue CAGR:


Lehman 29%
199 Brothers
4 5.6

4.6

One exception remained 3.1 3


a partnership model: 2.7
2.3 2.1 2.3

IPO in 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

1999
Sources Company Filings, Our 108
Better Than Goldman? | Appendix
However, the GS partnership grew bloated. Is BTG destined to the
same?
Since the IPO in 1999, Goldman Sachs partnership has
lost its allure, and is now being forced to shrink “To make it special, it’s got to
feel
Partner’ like it’s a high-quality group of
# Profit/Partner people”
Profit
s Pool
Partners
“There has been some creep
1999 US$ 400 mn 220 US$ 1.8 mn over
time”
“Partners don’t retire”
2020 US$ 500 mn 550 US$ 0.9 mn
- As said by a GS employee
More than doubled its size, which

forced the CEO to take measures:

“Taps on the shoulder” are more


frequent, allowing for size
control

Sources Company Filings, Our 109


Management Description

Executives: The maximum representation of BTG strong


| Appendix
culture
Prize

Roberto
Esteves' right-hand man
Sallouti since the beginning of Banker of The Year
Chief Executive
Officer his trajectory 2018
Latin America
Bachelor of Economics
Board Member
at
Intern Partner COO CEO

1994 1998 2008 2015

20 years or more at BTG Pactual


Some members of the board of
directors

André Lopes Mariana Marcelo Iuri


Dias Cardoso Flora Rapoport
Executive CCO Executive Director Executive
Director Pactual Pactual since Pactual since Director Pactual
since 1997 1996 2000 since 1995

Sources Company 110


Shareholder’s Structure

BTG Pactual Shareholder’s


| Appendix
Structure

G7 Holding André 237


22.8 77.2
S.A. ON: Esteves ON: partners
% %
57.4% 42.5% ON:
PN: 0% PN: 19.3% 0.06%
PN:
BTG Pactual Holding S.A. 80.7%
25% | 100%

BTG Pactual
Free
Others Holding Financeira
Float
Ltda.
26.1%
73.9%

Sources Company 111


Industry Dynamics | Appendix
Industry
dynamics
Investment banks allow companies and investors to access
the
capital markets, besides taking care of other business needs
Simplified Dynamics
Investment
Nascent Banking Financial Opening and
Bank¹ industry in entry of foreign banks
Founded
ECM, DCM and M&A Financing and
Brazil
(Investment services
Banking) 80’s 90’s
70’s
Interest (CL)
Corporate Lending Fees (IB and 10’s 00’s
S&T) Companies

Technology allows Growth of the capital


Sales and Trading for Digital banks and markets (IPO wave 05-
Fintechs growth 07)
Management and 202
Asset Management
custody of their 1
assets

Fees (WM/AM)
Wealth Management Investors

Sources Our AnalysisMcKinsey; Middle-office and back-office areas, among others, were omitted for 112
IBD Quality: we proved it!

Investment Banking: incentive fees indicate the quality of


| Appendix
service
We calculated each bank’s average incentive fee for Yes. Companies discretionarely pay BTG more than they
the last 30 ECM deals: pay
other banks
Average Incentive Fees, Last 30 ECM deals as of March 3rd
Bank’s Economics
0.38% 0.39%

0.34%

Deal Incentive Fee Discretionary 0.29%

0.23%

Bank’s Incentive Fee


0.15%

Does BTG receives higher incentive


fees on average, which could
explain its industry leadership?

Citi Santander XP BBA BBI BT


BTG
G

Sources Our Analysis, Company 113


Sales and Trading: drivers | Appendix
Sales and
Trading
Sales and Trading revenues
We believe the growth of
IB are generated in two main
ways S&T
17% will be driven by
CL
20% Higher volume
1. Fees and commissions charged of transactions
for products and services linked to
various instruments and securities
offered

S& 2. Gains or losses from its trades with Solid relationship with
T these securities customers across the bank
39%

13% Equity Sales and


Operations are
A divided into
Trading Good use
11%
M two major Fixed Income, of
W segments Currency and volatility
M Revenue
breakdown
Commodities

(core segments
only)
Sources Company 114
Sales and Trading: risk appetite

Sales and Trading and Risk


| Appendix
Appetite
The risk-taking culture and the S&T expertise make BTG a Value at Risk shows us the most daring position of BTG,
bank which
with more diversified risks historically brought higher returns in relation to the others
Comparison of Risk Weighted Assets (RWA), 2020 BTG Value at Risk (%)
Credit Risk Operational Risk Market Risk

2.6% 1.6% 2.5% 1.16%


3.8%
8.7% 7.5% 8.8%
9.0%
18.4%
4.5%

0.74%
0.71%

BTG
87.2% 88.7% 90.8% 88.7%
77.1%

Operati ns are 0.30%


0.33%
o ntoo Industry
divided tw s average
i majorgmen
0.05% -0.40%
se t
BTG
BT Santander Itaú Bradesco Banco do Brasil 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
G

Sources Company 115


Asset Management positioning | Appendix
Asset
management
High exposure to the fastest growing class of funds: Contrary to the market trend, we observe positive inflows even
equity in
(29% CAGR 16-20) and hedge (10.1% CAGR 16-20) the declining fixed income class
AuM Fixed Hedge Others Assets Inflow Oct/19-Dec/20, R$ bn
Equity Pension
(R$ Income (Incl.
bn) Funds FIP)
Banco do Brasil 1173 64% 5% 3% 25% 3%
31.2
29.3 Fixed Income
Itaú Unibanco 752 48% 7% 19% 24% 2% CAGR (2018-
Funds
2020)
M arke -9.1%
Bradesco 529 43% 3% 10% 41% 2% t
+23.8%
Caixa 412 63% 6% 8% 22% 1%

15.4
Santander 295 55% 3% 21% 20% 1%

BTG Pactual 144 19% 19% 32% 1% 30% 10.5

Safr 106 41 8% 29% 2 5.7


a % 19% %
1.7
Credit 10 14 3% 5 9 0.7
Suisse 1 % 69% % %
Equit Hedge FI FIP Fixed Pension Outros
y Funds I Income

Sources Company 116


Credit: portfolio maturity

Corporate Lending
| Appendix
After a large sale of the credit portfolio in 2015, BTG has By having a longer maturity portfolio than most retail
done an excellent job recovering volume and market banks,
share BTG enjoys very decent yields
Corporate Lending Portfolio Volume, R$ bn Portfolio Maturity and Average Interest Rates
CAGR2016-20: Interest Rates, 10/02/21 - 18/02/21

280% 35% 78 43
1000 % %
Up to 6

800 months 40.1% 42.0%


53.7%

600 83.1%
6 to 12
months 20.6%
28.4%
400 10.7% 39.6%

28.8%
37.4%
200 2016 BTG Market 2020 19.9%
35.6%
2.6% Share 6.8 14.1%
More 31.5% 10.4%
%
than 12
6.5%
0 months
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Bradesco Ita BT
BTG Santander
ú G

Sources Company 117


SME: an attractive market | Appendix
SME Lending: operational advantages enable margin
gains
SME: default risk and difficulty of credit analysis limits ...enhancing the need to operate with alternative
banks’ strategies
lending appetite… coupled to the use of technology
Credit Balance by Company Size, R$ bn BTG+ business “Risco Sacado” strategy
SME Large Corporates
1035 BTG’s Large Owes Receivables Supplier
Corporate Client SME
Difficult credit 956
analysis Lack of
financial and operational
data Finances
them

729
695 BTG Assumes client’s cash flow as collateral. The
1benefits?
Reduced Default
552
Risk
2
501 Which, in turn, allows for lower
provisions

jan/12 jan/ 13 jan/14 jan/15 jan/16 jan/17 jan/18 jan/19 jan/20 jan/21
Low Provisions High Spreads Margin Gains

Sources Company 118


Unsecured Funding | Appendix
An even larger feedback cycle: investment and digital bank
synergies
Remember how unsecured funding allows for more Taking BTG+ by itself into account, we see significant flight
leverage to
because it’s cheaper and reduces credit risk? quality regarding funding volume
Unsecured Funding Base, R$ bn BTG+ Loan Book, R$ bn
15.6
2018 45,1

11.7

8.7
2019
2020 surge was
53,6
pushed by the DRU
4.8

1.9
0.2
2020 107,2
2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E

Demand Time Securities Corporate Lending Division: directly benefited


deposits deposits Issued
+350%, 2020 +178,7%, 2020 +70,4%, 2020 Cheaper Funding = Better Spreads
Diversified Funding = Lower Credit Risk

BTG+ and BTG Digital Investment Banking Division: indirectly benefited


directly
influenced past year growth A larger CL Portfolio strengthens BTG’s relation with the
industry generating more mandates

Sources Company 119


Latin America Expansion | Appendix
LatAm
operations LatAm (exc. Brazil) ECM market and BTG market
share
Transactions Volume, R$ bn Mkt.
40% Share 40%

Colombia – since 20.8


30%
2012 14.6
27%

Bolsa y Renta 9.9 9.7


(broker) purchase 16%
Might get its 11%
7.0 4.2
banking license 9%

until 2H21 3.4

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Companies mkt. cap to GDP,


2019
72.2%
64.5%

Chile – since 2012


43.6%
Celfin (broker) purchase 40.8%

Has every license to operate as


a complete Investment bank 8.8%

Argentina Colombia Peru Brazil Chile

Sources Field Research, Company Filings, World 120


Latin America Expansion | Appendix
LatAm
operations
Key LatAm operation numbers

Colombia – since
2012
Bolsa y Renta
1 ~15% of loan
(broker) purchase
Might get its book
banking license 2 ~586 employees,
until 2H21
3Q20
3 ROE:
Chile ~15 – 17%
Colombia ~10 – 15%
Chile – since 2012 Talking to employees from chile and colombia, we
Celfin (broker) purchase had a clear vision: BTG follows the same path it
traced in Brazil, in markets similar to what Brazil
Has every license to operate as was a few years ago. It becomes easier then to
a complete Investment bank apply a well-defined tactic, and this gives us
confidence in the success of the expansion.

Sources Field Research, Company 121


Banco Pan

Banco Pan’s Synergy with BTG


Pactual | Appendix
BTG exchange top managers with Banco Pan, trying to Banco Pan complements BTG Pactual’s strategy,
replicate the partnership program success. providing
exposure to low-income retail, with a huge TAM
Ownership structure
Income classes synergy

Free-float
A High
Incom
e
44,9% 26,8% 28,3%
focus

B
Low
C Incom
e
focus
90% of Unbanked
Amos Genish, Chairman (Head of BTG’s
the D people:
population 50
Board DRU)
members
million
Roberto Sallouti (CEO of
nominated by
BTG Pactual BTG) Sérgio Cutolo
Alexandre Camara
E

Sources Company Filings, Our 122


Banco Pan

Growing Credit
Operation | Appendix
Pan’s revenues rely mostly on two retail businesses, but it More than 80% of Banco Pan’s origination comes from the
already social security retirees (INSS) niche, that should expand as
has a solid track-record in both operations population ages
Loan Book Origination 2030E Brazilian Demographic Pyramid

Payroll Loans Vehicles 90+

In this niche, Pan (5% market 80-84


the five large share) focuses on
banks hold used vehicles 70-74
78% Market and new
52 39%
share, while motorcycles,
% Pan has 3%, operating
60-64
focused on through
third-party dealerships. 50-54
brokers.
40-44

30-34
Credit Cards
6% 20-24
Pan has a small
market share (1%),
but a growing 10-14
portfolio. It operates
via digital 0-4
distribution and
partnerships. Women Men

Sources Company Filings, Our 123


Banco Pan

Ready-to-Scale Digital
Bank | Appendix
Banco Pan has launched its digital platform in early 2019, and The digital platform has already been responsible for a increase
currently operates in an omnichannel structure focused on in
B2B loan origination, due to reduced costs and better fraud
prevention
Omnichannel structure
Average Monthly Credit Origination

Financial 15 thousand 424


Services Dealerships
307

269 258 470


Credit and 459
Debit
770 342 34
7
Correspondents
Investments
1127
842 838 940

46
Insuranc Digital partners
e 201 201 2019 9M20
7 8
Vehicle Credit
Payroll s Card

Sources Company 124


Banco Pan

Banco Pan
Competition | Appendix
Banco Pan has an edge over other major players, since it does Credit should remain the main client retention tool, a product
not depend on some threatened fee-based income streams in
which Banco Pan has more expertise than any competitor
Fee-based industry comparison
Revenue Digital Banks industry comparison Number
% of Total Main Products Revenue Core
from fees in of Products
(2019)
2019 Revenue (fee- Clients (total)
based) R$ 4,5 bn 6 mn Payroll, Auto
Loans,
R$ 0,4 bn 9%
Credit Credit Card
Operations, Credit Card,
Credit Cards R$ 1,0 7 Investments,
bn mn M ortgage
Cards,
28%
R$ 19 bn
Current Credit Card,
Account R$ 188 3 mn Investments,
Cards, Current mn Current Account
R$ 34 bn 31% Account,
Asset $ 2,8 30 mn Credit
Management bn Card
34% Current
R$ 30 bn Credit Card,
Account, Asset R$ 2,0 3,5
Account Current
Management bn mn
Account
R$ 2,0 bn 27%
Cards,
Current

Sources Company 125


Too Seguros

Too Seguros: A Good Cross Sell


| Appendix
Optionality
Though insurance should not be BTG’s main strategy, Too After 2018 Pan Seguros rebranding, in an attempt to optimize
Seguros its
may leverage the bank’s growth by diversifying its products pool portfolio and reduce costs, Too has shown higher ROE

Insurance
Too Seguros results
Products
Once called Pan Seguros, a
segment of Banco Pan, Too Vehicles
Seguros is an insurance Life
company that provides its 28%
products through partners’ Home equity 26%
retail channels. Financial

16% 500 51
14% 3
40
345 1
Sold Pan Seguros operation in Owns 51% of Too Seguros.
2014 to focus on credit services. 17
DRU have synergies To 15
Still have a deal with Too Seguros 107 118 4
with Seguros, as it may o 1
to provide insurance in its digital
platform. complementary products. offe
r 2017 2018 2019 3Q LTM
Offering credit is Banco Pan main In this sense, BTG may have an
strength, but increasing cross-sell optionality to create an one-stop- Revenue (R$ Net Profit (R$ RoE
in insurance may be a hidden shop platform. mm) mm) (%)
opportunity.

Sources Company 126


Principal Investments

Principal Investments: slow exit


| Appendix
outlook
Two assets, opportunistically acquired by BTG, account for We expect BTG to be dilluted with time, with revenues
most of Principal Investment revenues associated
losing relevance in the big picture of the bank
BTG’s Principal Investments revenues
BTG acquired a 50% stake from Petrobras in 2013
Principal Investments % of total
revenue revenues
Company owns energy assets in Africa, mostly Nigeria

15.5%
Cash flows hedged from oil-price fluctuations
12.9%

R$2,5bn book value

8.2%

5.7%
4.9%
4.1%
Loan receivables converted into 50% stake in 2015, curently at 23%
2.3%
1.6%
0.3%
Integrated power generation company using natural gas 1,290

Succesful turnaround, reaching R$1bn profit in 2020, 48% CAGR from 2015
691 730
603 607 587
375
R$4,3bn market value, booked at R$3,7bn 302
1
5
201 201 201 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
7 8 9 E

Sources Company 127


Income Statement | Appendix
Summarized Income
Statement

Sources Our 128


Revenue Breakdown | Appendix
Revenue Breakdown 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
Total Revenue 9.928,7 12.306,1 15.161,0 18.379,0 21.822,5 26.110,4
Core-Business 7.898,1 8.901,2 10.183,4 11.686,7 13.394,0 15.465,8
% of total 80% 72% 67% 64% 61% 59%
Investment Banking [R$ mi] 1.327 1.504 1.601 1.709 1.865 2.002
% of total 13% 12% 11% 9% 9% 8%
Corporate Lending (Ex-SME) [R$ mi] 1.591 1.872 2.269 2.723 3.307 3.990
% of total 16% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15%
Sales & Trading [R$ mi] 3.117 2.844 3.110 3.421 3.638 4.013
% of total 31% 23% 21% 19% 17% 15%
Asset Management [R$ mi] 1.013 1.659 1.973 2.358 2.817 3.346
% of total 10% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13%
Wealth Management (excluding BTG Pactual D [R$ mi] 850 1.023 1.230 1.476 1.768 2.115
% of total 9% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8%

Digital Retail Unit (Ex-Pan and Too) 625,2 1.801,5 2.849,0 4.110,5 5.634,3 7.482,9
BTG Digital [R$ mi] 290 650 1.062 1.613 2.320 3.211
% of total 3% 5% 7% 9% 11% 12%
BTG+ Business [R$ mi] 303 733 986 1.308 1.723 2.242
% of total 3% 6% 7% 7% 8% 9%
BTG+ [R$ mi] 33 419 801 1.190 1.591 2.030
% of total 0% 3% 5% 6% 7% 8%

Others 1.405,4 1.603,3 2.128,6 2.581,8 2.794,2 3.161,7


Participations 730 603 607 587 375 302
% of total 7% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1%
Interest and other 313 548 971 1.325 1.605 1.869
% of total 3% 4% 6% 7% 7% 7%
Principal investments 362 453 550 670 814 991
% of total 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4%

Sources Our 129


Investment Banking | Appendix
Our Investment Banking Division
Forecasts

Sources Our 130


Corporate Lending | Appendix
Our Corporate Lending
Forecasts

From the Spread ICC data of the


Banking Economics Report (BCB), we
estimate a ratio between the Yield of
SMEs and that of Large companies of
2.55x

It decreases as competition and


credit supply increase

Sources Our 131


Sales and Trading | Appendix
Our Sales and Trading
Forecasts

We followed the bank's Guidance, from 1Q20, for a quarterly average revenue between R$ 450
and
800 million.

We grow revenue annually at the Equity growth rate minus a 4.5% discount.

We did this because we believe that VaR will be reduced in proportion to Equity, with expansion
to retail, and thus the returns of the Sales and Trading division will not grow in proportion to
Equity.

We are aware, however, that it is an area of difficult predictability.

Sources Our 132


Asset Management | Appendix
Our Asset Management
Forecasts

Sources Our 133


Asset Management | Appendix
Our Asset Management
Forecasts

Obs: all fees are after rebate

Sources Our 134


BTG+ | Appendix

Our BTG+
Forecasts

Sources Our 135


BTG Digital | Appendix
Our BTG Digital
Forecasts

Sources Our 136


BTG Digital | Appendix
Our BTG Digital
Forecasts

Sources Our 137


Banco Pan | Appendix

Banco
Pan
Banco Pan 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
Income Statement (Highlights)
Net Interest Income [R$ mi] 5.368,1 5.977,2 6.885,6 7.971,8 9.265,9 10.806,9
Provision for Loan Losses [R$ mi] (1.431,4) (1.905,2) (2.194,7) (2.540,9) (2.953,4) (3.444,6)

Other Operating Income [R$ mi] 482,3 514,0 547,7 583,7 622,1 663,0

Administrative Expenses [R$ mi] (2.950,9) (3.273,4) (3.633,2) (4.047,0) (4.518,6) (5.053,9)
Other Expenses [R$ mi] 888,0 791,0 1.030,8 1.335,6 1.713,3 2.184,5

Operational Result [R$ mi] 888,0 791,0 1.030,8 1.335,6 1.713,3 2.184,5
Net Income [R$ mi] 655,6 522,1 680,4 881,5 1.130,8 1.441,8
Net Margin [%] 12,2% 8,7% 9,9% 11,1% 12,2% 13,3%

Loans [R$ mi] 28.907,5 33.073,2 38.100,0 44.110,2 51.270,5 59.797,4


Vehicle Financing [R$ mi] 11.140 13.034 15.249 17.842 20.875 24.424
Payroll Loans [R$ mi] 15.129 17.096 19.319 21.830 24.668 27.875
Credit Card [R$ mi] 1.772 2.357 3.135 4.170 5.546 7.376
Others [R$ mi] 866 586 397 269 182 123

Sources Our 138


Balance Sheet Ratios | Appendix
Key
Ratios
Reported Balance Sheet Ratios 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
Assets BRL mn 251.393 298.399 328.922 388.681 462.802 548.247
Expanded Credit Portfolio 73.700 89.563 109.740 135.284 168.895 209.709
YoY 68,3% 21,5% 22,5% 23,3% 24,8% 24,2%
Assets - Expanded Credit Portfolio 177.693 208.836 219.182 253.397 293.906 338.538
YoY 21% 18% 5% 16% 16% 15%

Equity BRL mn 26.681 30.382 34.593 39.611 43.904 50.403


ROE annualized 17,6% 18,7% 20,8% 22,6% 24,2% 25,9%
ROA annualized 1,9% 1,9% 2,2% 2,3% 2,4% 2,4%

Asset / Equity 9,2x 9,8x 9,5x 9,8x 10,5x 10,9x

RWA BRL mn 156.914 190.688 233.646 288.032 359.594 446.491

Capital tier I BRL mn 22.088 28.360 36.381 46.378 58.180 71.748


Common equity tier I BRL mn 21.710
Additional tier I BRL mn 377
Deductions BRL mn -
Capital tier II BRL mn 4.045 4.045 4.045 4.045 4.045 4.045
Deductions BRL mn
Reference equity BRL mn 26.133 32.405 40.426 50.423 62.225 75.793

Basel ratio 16,7% 17,0% 17,3% 17,5% 17,3% 17,0%


Tier I 14,1% 14,9% 15,6% 16,1% 16,2% 16,1%
Tier II 2,6% 2,1% 1,7% 1,4% 1,1% 0,9%

Sources Our 139


Core Valuation - DDM | Appendix
Core Valuation -
DDM

Obs, included Business Units are: Investment Banking, Corporate Lending, S&T, Asset and Wealth Management

Sources Our 140


AM and PB modelling rationale | Appendix
Asset Management and Private Banking modelling
rationale
We forecast an Asset Management portfolio similar to Due to intense competition for custody in Private Banking,
the current one, with average annual NNM/AuM close we
to 15% maintain BTG's current Market Share for years to come
AuM (R$ AuA (R$ Net New Money (R$ Bn)
Bn) Bn)

19,8% CAGR AuA + AuM 337.7 15,2% CAGR 390.6

AuA ROA : 0,01% Brazilian


Private Banking 339.0
289.0
AuM ROA : 0,87% Volume
294.3
247.8
255.4
202.8 221.7
404.0
165.8 192.4
338.1
134.7 12,9% PB Mkt Share
282.7
232.1
192.8
165.5
94.1 0.44% 0.44% 0.44% 0.44% 0.44% 0.44%
87.0 79.6
63.7 60.0 71.7

2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E

Sources Our 141


BTG+ Business

BTG+
| Appendix
Business
BTG+ business yields BTG+ business: a high-spread, low-provision strategy that
assumptions: will
account for 24% of the portfolio by 2024
SME Portfolio Volume and Revenue, R$ bn
SM E Portfolio Volume SM E Lending Revenue 24% of
CL 2 .5

Portfolio
Avg. SME 2.6x (net of
2.3

Yields Large Corporate provisions)

50.8
1.8

37.3
1.3
Our Assumptions
for: 1.0 26.8
2.5%
Large Corporate 0.7
19.3
SME Yields:
Yields: 2.5 2.6 = 9.5
13.7

% 6.4% 0.3

2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E

Sources Company Filings, Our 142


Equity value | Appendix
Valuation and returns: equity
value
Business Units Equity Value, R$ Business Units Share Value,
bn R$

92.1 101.9

15.9 15.5 17.6 17.1

8.6 9.5
6.1 6.8
1.2 1.4

Core BTG BTG+ BTG+ Pan Too Seguros Core BTG BTG+ BTG+ Pan Too Seguros
Digital Business Digital Business
Sources Our 143
Implied and Exit Multilpes | Appendix
Valuation and returns: Implied Multiples and Exit Multiples
(IRR)
Implied Multiples on our SOTP Consolidated Units
valuation IRR
2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
1
Cash flows = Dividends +
E
Target Price (final year)
68x 68x

IRR Exit P/E


35% 16x 17x 18x 19x 20x
48x

2021 -4.8% 1.1% 6.9% 12.7% 18.5%


40x
36x
2022 11.1% 14.4% 17.6% 20.7% 23.7%
Exit
27x
25x 24x 2023 16.0% 18.3% 20.5% 22.6% 24.6%
21x 20x Year
18x
17x
15x 15x 15x
13x 11x 11x 2024 17.8% 19.5% 21.1% 22.7% 24.2%
11x
9x

2025 19.1% 20.5% 21.8% 23.0% 24.2%

Core BTG BTG+ BTG+


Digital business

Sources Our 144


Justified Price/Book Value | Appendix
Justified Price/Book
Value
Considering the high return on
ROE - g In perpetuity, we assume: equity and growth perspective for
Fair P/B g = 7% ROE = 17.5% Ke = the medium term, compared to our
= Ke - g
11.92%, perpetuity assumptions, our
which gives Fair P/BV = 2.13x Justified P/BV brings a great sanity
check for
our SOTP valuation
Our Price to Book Multiples Forecast for
BPAC11
3.2x
3.0x 3.0x
2.7x
2.3x
2.1x 2.1x
1. 8x

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

P/BV Justified
P/BV

Sources Our 145


Sanity check on P/BV | Appendix
A sanity check from our multiples
analysis
Fwd
12.0
2021
XP
BIDI1
1

10.0

STNE
8.0 LPLA

P/ BV 6.0
y = 0.1422x + 1.6132 What if BTG was on the
regression line?
4.0
It should trade at 4.22x P/BV
BPAC1 then, an even higher multiple
SCHW
1
Challenger than our
JPM ITUB
2.0
4 SANB1 Incumbent implied 4.2x
MS 1
UBS GS
BAC BBDC4 It is clearly not a rigorous
CS
0.0 analysis, but it brings
2.0 7.0 12.0 17.0 22.0 27.0 32.0 37.0 confidence to our
numbers!
ROE,
%

Sources Our 146


Sensitivity Analysis | Appendix
Sensitivity
analysis
How sensitive is our valuation?

g Payout on perpetuity
52,0% 5,0% 6,0% 7,0% 7,5% 8,0% 60,0% 70,0% 80,0%
52% 40,0% 50,0%
10,92% 58% 72% 94% 110% 131% 10,92% 59% 77% 94% 112% 129%
11,42% 42% 54% 71% 83% 98% 11,42% 41% 56% 71% 86% 100%
Ke 11,92% 29% 38% 52% 61% 72% Ke 11,92% 26% 39% 52% 65% 77%
12,42% 18% 26% 37% 44% 53% 12,42% 15% 26% 37% 48% 59%
12,92% 9% 15% 24% 30% 37% 12,92% 5% 14% 24% 34% 44%

BUY recommendation
stands for multiple
scenarios

Sources Company Filings, Our 147


Sensitivity Analysis | Appendix
Leverage x SME sensitivity
analysis
How sensitive is our valuation?

Leverage
52% 3,11x 3,61x 4,11x 4,61x 5,11x
33,9% 45% 49% 53% 57% 61%
SME 28,9% 44% 48% 52% 57% 61%
(% of lending) 23,9% 44% 48% 52% 56% 60%
18,9% 44% 48% 51% 55% 59%
13,9% 43% 47% 51% 55% 59%

Sources Company Filings, Our 148


Risks to our valuation | Appendix
Economic uncertainty is the biggest threat to our
theses
What can unsettle
our perspectives?
Risks matrix
Market Risks
M1 Unstable macroeconomic scenario due to the Covid-19
Probability

pandemic

M M2 Political and legislative issues can suffer turbulence


1
Company Risks
M2
C1 Difficulty of raising significant unsecured funding
D C2 The success of the AM and WM areas can be over-conditioned to
the
1 performance of the products

C C3 New issues regarding the bank's credibility can affect the valuation
1
Competition Dynamics Risks
D1 Abrupt changes in the competitive dynamics of credit or wealth
C2 D2 management can happen
C3 D2 Major banks may have a successful strategy in avoiding the
expansion of challengers
Impac
t
Sources Our 149

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