UJIAN AKHIR SEMESTER MATA KULIAH ANALISA SISTEM KEPUTUSAN

Nama FAHMI KUNCORO

NRP 6032221049
Soal FORECASTING

The Beaver Creek Poetry

Month Sales
1 345
2 411
3 266
4 347
5 506
6 278
7 411
8 510
9 198
10 387
11 344
12 412
13 415
14 395
15 298
16 377
17 418
18 522
19 421
20 384
21 455
22 506
23 478
24 613
25 344
26 286
27 455
28 634
29 502
30 388
31 427
32 561
33 447
 34 395
35 414
36 522

a. Develop Linear Trend Forecast model

b. Develop Exponentiall smoothed model ( dengan Alfa : 0.20)
c. Develop 5 Month Moving Average
d. Indicate Which One You Think Should Be Used To Forecast Web Site Demand

A. LINIER TREND FORECAST MODEL

Month(x) Sales (y) xy x^2 n = 36

1 345 345 1
2 411 822 4 = 666 =
3 266 798 9 36
4 347 1,388 16
5 506 2,530 25 = 15,072 =
6 278 1,668 36 36
7 411 2,877 49
8 510 4,080 64
9 198 1,782 81
10 387 3,870 100
11 344 3,784 121 =
12 412 4,944 144
13 415 5,395 169 =
14 395 5,530 196
15 298 4,470 225 b= 293,812 - (36) (18.50) (
16 377 6,032 256 16,206 - (36) (18.
17 418 7,106 289
18 522 9,396 324 b= 14,980 =
19 421 7,999 361 3,885
 20 384 7,680 400
21 455 9,555 441
22 506 11,132 484
23 478 10,994 529 a= 418.667 - (3.856) (18.50)
24 613 14,712 576
25 344 8,600 625 a= 347.333333
26 286 7,436 676
27 455 12,285 729 Garis Trend Linier
28 634 17,752 784
29 502 14,558 841
30 388 11,640 900
31 427 13,237 961 y= 347.333 + 3.856 x
32 561 17,952 1,024
33 447 14,751 1,089
34 395 13,430 1,156
35 414 14,490 1,225
36 522 18,792 1,296
666 15,072 293,812 16,206

B. EXPONENSIAL SMOOTHED MODEL

Karena tidak ada nilai beta dan tidak ada keterangan lain sehingga menggunakan Rumus Simple Expon

= 0.2

Month(x) Sales (y) Forecast Contoh Perhitungan

1 345 345.00
2 411 345.00
3 266 358.20 F2 = 0.2 (345) + (1 - 0.2) (345)
4 347 339.76
5 506 341.21 F2 = 0.2 (345) + (0.8) (345)
6 278 374.17
7 411 354.93 F2 = 345
8 510 366.15
 9 198 394.92 F3 = 0.2 (411) + (1 - 0.2) (345)
10 387 355.53
11 344 361.83 F3 = 0.2 (411) + (0.8) (345)
12 412 358.26
13 415 369.01 F3 = 358.2
14 395 378.21
15 298 381.57 358.2
16 377 364.85
17 418 367.28
18 522 377.43
19 421 406.34
20 384 409.27
21 455 404.22
22 506 414.37
23 478 432.70
24 613 441.76
25 344 476.01
26 286 449.61
27 455 416.88
28 634 424.51
29 502 466.41
30 388 473.53
31 427 456.42
32 561 450.54
33 447 472.63
34 395 467.50
35 414 453.00
36 522 445.20

C. FIVE MONTH MOVING AVERAGE

Five Month
Month(x) Sales (y) Moving
Average Contoh Perhitungan 5 Month Moving Average
1 345 -
2 411 -
3 266 -
4 347 -
5 506 - MA5 = 345 + 411 + 266 + 34
6 278 375.0 5
7 411 361.6
8 510 361.6 MA5 = 1875 =
 9 198 410.4 5
10 387 380.6
11 344 356.8
12 412 370.0
13 415 370.2
14 395 351.2
15 298 390.6
16 377 372.8
17 418 379.4
18 522 380.6
19 421 402.0
20 384 407.2
21 455 424.4
22 506 440.0
23 478 457.6
24 613 448.8
25 344 487.2
26 286 479.2
27 455 445.4
28 634 435.2
29 502 466.4
30 388 444.2
31 427 453.0
32 561 481.2
33 447 502.4
34 395 465.0
35 414 443.6
36 522 448.8

d. Indicate Which One You Think Should Be Used To Forecast Web Site Demand

Menggunakan MAD (Median Abosolute Deviation)

A. Linear Trend Forecast Model

Forecast
Error
Month(x) Sales (y) y = 347.333 + |Dt - Ft|
(Dt - Ft)
3.856 x
1 345 351.189 -6.189 6.189
2 411 355.045 55.955 55.955
3 266 358.901 -92.901 92.901
4 347 362.757 -15.757 15.757
 5 506 366.613 139.387 139.387
6 278 370.469 -92.469 92.469
7 411 374.325 36.675 36.675
8 510 378.181 131.819 131.819
9 198 382.037 -184.037 184.037
10 387 385.893 1.107 1.107
11 344 389.749 -45.749 45.749
12 412 393.605 18.395 18.395
13 415 397.461 17.539 17.539
14 395 401.317 -6.317 6.317
15 298 405.173 -107.173 107.173
16 377 409.029 -32.029 32.029
17 418 412.885 5.115 5.115
18 522 416.741 105.259 105.259
19 421 420.597 0.403 0.403
20 384 424.453 -40.453 40.453
21 455 428.309 26.691 26.691
22 506 432.165 73.835 73.835
23 478 436.021 41.979 41.979
24 613 439.877 173.123 173.123
25 344 443.733 -99.733 99.733
26 286 447.589 -161.589 161.589
27 455 451.445 3.555 3.555
28 634 455.301 178.699 178.699
29 502 459.157 42.843 42.843
30 388 463.013 -75.013 75.013
31 427 466.869 -39.869 39.869
32 561 470.725 90.275 90.275
33 447 474.581 -27.581 27.581
34 395 478.437 -83.437 83.437
35 414 482.293 -68.293 68.293
36 522 486.149 35.851 35.851
Total 14,727 6.105 2,350.905
n = 35
(Data Periode -1)
MAD = 2,350.905/35

MAD = 67.169

Dari Perhitungan MAD (Median Absolute Deviation) dapat diketahui bahwa

a. Nilai MAD Linear Trend Forecast Model adalah 67.169
b. Nilai MAD Exponensial Smoothing Model adalah 77.060
c. Nilai MAD untuk Five Month Moving Average adalah 107.366
Dengan mempertimbangkan bahwa semakin rendah nilai MAD relative pada magnitude data maka se
Untuk Forecast di Web Site Demand diusulkan menggunakan Linear Trend Forecast
 18.50

418.667

293,812

16,206

293,812 - (36) (18.50) (418.667)

16,206 - (36) (18.50) Tidak Perlu Masuk ke Jawaban, hanya perbandingan untuk sinkronisasi rum

3.856 rumus b hal depan (27) dan belakang (28) berbedayang betul yang belakan
667 - (3.856) (18.50)

333 + 3.856 x

an Rumus Simple Exponensial Smoothed Model

Exponensial Smoothed Model

700

600 Actual

500

400

300

200

100
 500

400

300

200
Exponensial Smoothing Forecast
100

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36

Sales (y) Forecast

onth Moving Average Five Month Moving Average

700

600 Actual

345 + 411 + 266 + 347 + 506 500

5
400
375
300

200
 500

400

300

200 Five Month

100

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 2

Sales (y) 345 411 266 347 506 Five Month Moving Average - - - -

B. Exponensial Smoothed Model

Error
Month(x) Sales (y) Forecast |Dt - Ft|
(Dt - Ft)

1 345 345.00 0.00 0.00

2 411 345.00 66.00 66.00
3 266 358.20 -92.20 92.20
4 347 339.76 7.24 7.24
 5 506 341.21 164.79 164.79
6 278 374.17 -96.17 96.17
7 411 354.93 56.07 56.07
8 510 366.15 143.85 143.85
9 198 394.92 -196.92 196.92
10 387 355.53 31.47 31.47
11 344 361.83 -17.83 17.83
12 412 358.26 53.74 53.74
13 415 369.01 45.99 45.99
14 395 378.21 16.79 16.79
15 298 381.57 -83.57 83.57
16 377 364.85 12.15 12.15
17 418 367.28 50.72 50.72
18 522 377.43 144.57 144.57
19 421 406.34 14.66 14.66
20 384 409.27 -25.27 25.27
21 455 404.22 50.78 50.78
22 506 414.37 91.63 91.63
23 478 432.70 45.30 45.30
24 613 441.76 171.24 171.24
25 344 476.01 -132.01 132.01
26 286 449.61 -163.61 163.61
27 455 416.88 38.12 38.12
28 634 424.51 209.49 209.49
29 502 466.41 35.59 35.59
30 388 473.53 -85.53 85.53
31 427 456.42 -29.42 29.42
32 561 450.54 110.46 110.46
33 447 472.63 -25.63 25.63
34 395 467.50 -72.50 72.50
35 414 453.00 -39.00 39.00
36 522 445.20 76.80 76.80
Total 14,727 577.81 2697.09
n = 35
(Data Periode -1)
MAD = 2,697.09/35

MAD = 77.060
agnitude data maka semakin akurat forecast yang dibuat , maka
 y= 347.333 + 3.856 x

Month(x) Sales (y) Forecast

1 345 351.189
2 411 355.045
3 266 358.901
4 347 362.757
5 506 366.613
6 278 370.468
7 411 374.324
8 510 378.180
9 198 382.036
10 387 385.892
11 344 389.748
12 412 393.604
13 415 397.459
14 395 401.315
15 298 405.171
ndingan untuk sinkronisasi rumus karena 16 377 409.027
17 418 412.883
erbedayang betul yang belakang (28) 18 522 416.739
19 421 420.595
20 384 424.450
21 455 428.306
22 506 432.162
23 478 436.018
24 613 439.874
25 344 443.730
26 286 447.586
27 455 451.441
28 634 455.297
29 502 459.153
30 388 463.009
31 427 466.865
32 561 470.721
33 447 474.577
34 395 478.432
35 414 482.288
36 522 486.144
7 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36

Moving Average
15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

Five Month Moving Average - - - - -

C. Five Month Moving Average

Error
Month(x) Sales (y) Forecast |Dt - Ft|
(Dt - Ft)

1 345 0 345 345

2 411 0 411 411
3 266 0 266 266
4 347 0 347 347
 5 506 0 506 506
6 278 375.0 -97 97
7 411 361.6 49.4 49.4
8 510 361.6 148.4 148.4
9 198 410.4 -212.4 212.4
10 387 380.6 6.4 6.4
11 344 356.8 -12.8 12.8
12 412 370.0 42 42
13 415 370.2 44.8 44.8
14 395 351.2 43.8 43.8
15 298 390.6 -92.6 92.6
16 377 372.8 4.2 4.2
17 418 379.4 38.6 38.6
18 522 380.6 141.4 141.4
19 421 402.0 19 19
20 384 407.2 -23.2 23.2
21 455 424.4 30.6 30.6
22 506 440.0 66 66
23 478 457.6 20.4 20.4
24 613 448.8 164.2 164.2
25 344 487.2 -143.2 143.2
26 286 479.2 -193.2 193.2
27 455 445.4 9.6 9.6
28 634 435.2 198.8 198.8
29 502 466.4 35.6 35.6
30 388 444.2 -56.2 56.2
31 427 453.0 -26 26
32 561 481.2 79.8 79.8
33 447 502.4 -55.4 55.4
34 395 465.0 -70 70
35 414 443.6 -29.6 29.6
36 522 448.8 73.2 73.2
Total 14727 1734.6 3757.8
n = 35

MAD = 3,757.8/35

MAD = 107.366
 Linear Trend Forecast Model
700
Actual
600

500

400

300

200
Linear Trend Line
100

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36

Sales (y) Forecast

33 34 35 36
ANALISA DAN PENGAMBILAN KEPUTUSAN - STUDI KASUS FORECASTING

ANGKA PENJUALAN KWARTAL DEMI KWARTAL AGENSI SELAMA 4 TAHUN TERAKHIR

Penjualan
Year
Kuartal 1 Kuartal 2 Kuartal 3 Kuartal 4 Total
2019 21 25 23 27 96
2020 30 32 29 31 122
2021 29 30 32 33 124
2022 32 34 31 35 132
112 121 115 126 474

A. FAKTOR MUSIMAN UNTUK EMPAT KWARTAL

= 112/474 = 0.236 (Faktor Musim Kwartal 1)

= 121/474 = 0.255 (Faktor Musim Kwartal 2)

= 115/474 = 0.243 (Faktor Musim Kwartal 3)

= 126/474 = 0.266 (Faktor Musim Kwartal 4)

B. MENCARI PERSAMAAN TREND LINEAR

Year (X) Order (Y) XY X

1 96 96 1 n = 4
2 122 244 4
3 124 372 9 = 10 = 2.5
4 132 528 16 4
10 474 1240 30 = 474 = 118.5
4

= 1240.0

= 30

b = 1240 - (4) (2.5) (118.5)

30 - (4) (2.5)

b = 11

a = (118.5) - 11 (2.5)

a = 91

Garis Trend Linear

 y = 91 + 11 x

Forecase untuk Satu Tahun (Keseluruhan) (Trend Line) untuk Tahun 2023 (Atau Tahun ke 5) sebagai berikut

y = 91 + 11 x

y = 91 + 11 (5)

y = 146

C. RAMALAN PENJUALAN PADA KWARTAL 1,2,3, dan 4 TAHUN Ke-6 TAHUN 2023

SF1 = (S1)*(F5)=(0.236)*(146) = 34.498 (Penjualan Kwartal I)

SF2 = (S2)*(F5)=(0.255)*(146) = 37.270 (Penjualan Kwartal II)

SF3 = (S3)*(F5)=(0.243)*(146) = 35.422 (Penjualan Kwartal III)

SF4 = (S4)*(F5)=(0.266)*(146) = 38.810 (Penjualan Kwartal IV)